 I'm going to end the morning with a few of the very first questions. The first question is, really, the last thing that I'm talking about maybe isn't, so you want to talk to us. Where is the use of our products to help people that sell high-level goods? You know, we're not all coming in with this. So we're talking about high-level goods. And the very first question is, and do you agree with anything that you want to say? So this is a question that we can do really to be able to talk about this in the end. So we might have missed, or we might have spoken about that in a couple of days, and we had a quick talk about high-level goods. We might have missed that the need for the product of a large number of goods in the end. But it's a challenge that we've gotten to. So to talk about that, about the use of this, where the product of this kind of regulation is going to spread all over the world. And I want to tell you, too, about some of the selected students who have come out here, it's the very things that we're going to talk about in the next slide. We're going to talk about the statement, and we're going to be talking about this right here on the right in your part of the debate. And of course, I don't know if you're going to choose right now, but you might have to, of course, is familiar to many of you, has helped many, many important positions, including as the Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs and the State Department. He also served as Ambassador to Germany during a very critical time, namely from 1985 to 1989. And currently, he's the Managing Director of McLarty Associates based in Washington, D.C., ladies and gentlemen. Please welcome Richard Byrds. Richard, that's somebody who's American, obviously. But as I said, you served in Germany as Ambassador. Worked on you quite a bit. We're very curious to hear about your opening statements to hear your take right now on the current state of the European Union. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I'm going to be very brief, make a few, hopefully, provocative points to get a debate, a discussion going with this panel and with the audience. And I think I will begin by reminding some of you who would at least read the Wall Street Journal of a column that showed up after a visit by Donald Trump to Europe last summer. It was written by H.R. McMaster, the President's National Security Advisor, and Gary Cohn, who chairs something called the National Economic Council. And the title of the article was America First Does Not Mean America Alone. And I'm not sure whether or not I agree with that, but I do think that America First perhaps means Europe alone. I think we are going through a really crucial and historical change in which the message from Washington to Europe and the EU is now you are on your own. If you think back both through the immediate post-war period, the Cold War period, and the aftermath of the Cold War, the one kind of stabilizing influence in international politics was the U.S.-European relationship. I think that has changed and has probably changed for good. If you think back on example, the kind of special relationships not only between the United States and Britain, but the remarkable relationships that go back to the 1950s between, say, Eisenhower and Conrad Adenauer, between Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, between, say, Tony Blair, his relationships both with Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, and the relationships more recently between leaders like Angela Merkel and Barack Obama, there is no such relationship now between any major European leader with Donald Trump. And I think that as American policy becomes less focused on values, western values and shared values, and more on transactionalism, you see an emphasis in American policy on India, China, East Asia, South Asia, and not the European-American relationship. So this puts the Europeans and the EU, in particular, in my view, in a difficult position. On the one hand, it's kind of a scary world for the Europeans out there without the United States as a partner, but on the other hand, it can also be a force for change in Europe, an invigorating period for Europe to take on new responsibilities and new leadership. But that fundamental shift away from the transatlantic relationship being the centerpiece of international relations is something I think that will pose real pressures and challenges for not only Brussels and the Brussels-based institutions, but the major European players. Point two, that means, in my view, that Europe has to strengthen itself. We all recognize the importance of coming to grips with the economic challenges of dealing with fixing the European monetary system, the finding a way of dealing with some persistent European issues like growth, and I think some progress has been made in those areas, but the one thing I would emphasize briefly this morning is the importance of strengthening and building the European defense pillar. It was interesting to me that when Trump was in Europe last summer, the big debate was, well, will the Europeans agree to the 2% increase in defense? That, to me, is the wrong way to cast the issue. Europeans shouldn't think about defense spending as a way of placating the Americans. The Europeans need to think about defense spending and strengthening their defense to play a bigger role in international politics. I think there is some consensus beginning to emerge along those lines, and I think I would only, as an American, applaud an effort to strengthen European security and defense. Third point. Europe needs a strategy, a common strategy for regulating and protecting its borders. I'm not talking here about a Trumpian wall through Europe, but I am talking about the need to have a European-wide immigration strategy, one and one which is not based or implemented on a national basis, but on an EU basis. I think more has to be done in this area. The problem of immigration is loomed large recently, particularly in places like Eastern Europe, and only, it seems to me, a European-wide approach to dealing with controlling the border and protecting the border is the solution. And my penultimate point has to do with the problems, if I can put it in those terms, dealing with, and I know we have a Polish representative on our panel, but I think we've got to do something, or Europe needs to do something, about the unruly Eastern Europeans. And here I'm not just pointing at Poland, I'm pointing, of course, at Hungary, pointing at some other newer members of the EU in the East, but some kind of agreement needs to be reached in Brussels to find a way of, if I can use this word, demonstrating that there are costs associated with not living up to the standards and rules of the European Union, because if the EU fails to do this, then I think it faces potential disintegration. And I will finish my comment by saying what I am basically an optimist about Europe and the reason I am an optimist is for three reasons. First of all, I'm very pleased to see the results of the recent German elections. I'm relieved that even though there are tough coalition discussions going on in Berlin today, that Angela Merkel has been returned to power. She has played a very important leadership role, and that leads to the second aspect, which is the results of elections in France. The Germans now potentially have a French partner which could create a revitalized Franco-German alliance within the EU, which has always historically been, in my view, the vital engine of growth and modernity in Europe. And that leads, finally, to my third point, is with all the debate and discussion, and I know my friend Steve will address this in more detail, but with all the debate and discussion with London about how Brexit is going to proceed, how the British are or are not going to be able to successfully negotiate leaving the EU, I secretly believe that Britain, in the end, will not leave Europe. Well, thank you, Richard. You heard it here first. Breaking news, please. Breaking news coming out of Marrakesh. Brexit no longer. Great Britain is not leaving the EU. You heard it here first on the stage. Richard, many, many thanks for your opening remarks which gave us a lot of food for thought, saying that the special relationship between the US and EU will not exist, as it used to be, perhaps an opportunity for Europe to take this opportunity to become more independent and grow up, if you will, particularly on the security front. And as far as Eastern Europe, we will have Buck Dunn click later on who will get an opportunity, of course, to respond what was being said. But you mentioned a piece on the Wall Street Journal, a fine newspaper. Another fine newspaper is, of course, the New York Times, and that's why I'm delighted to have with us the chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe of the New York Times. I'm sure all of you are familiar with his work, with his writing, he was based amongst others in Berlin, Paris, Moscow, London and now currently in Brussels. Great to have him with us. Please welcome Stephen Erlanga, ladies and gentlemen. Now, Steve, nobody needs to tell you about Europe. This is a continent that you've been covering for a very, very long time. That's why I'm particularly curious to hear your take on the future of the EU. Well, thank you, Ali, I've been all waiting for Europe to grow up for a very long time. I think I'll be dead before it reaches teenage years, but we'll see. It's always hard to follow Rick, but I want to encourage you in one thing, if you are troubled by Donald Trump's indifference to Europe, think how troubled you would be if he was really interested in Europe. I think he's basically decided not liking multilateral institutions that the European Union in his view is silly, but if you want it, it's okay. And that's kind of the way he feels about NATO. Maybe it's not great and maybe the US is being taken advantage of, but it seems important and the people around him think it's important, so it's okay. I'm very ambivalent, but I would guess right now about the state of the European Union. I think it has gotten some of its mojo back. There's no question. Brexit has been a prise de conscience. It's been a wake-up call. It has made sure that no other country will vote to leave the EU, at least not for quite a long time. It has reinvigorated the idea that Europe needs better leadership. The growth is back, though still very slow. As we've heard in the excellent economic and finance panels, unemployment is less, but still bad, particularly for youth. The big problem remains the diversity of 28 countries. What worked at 15 does not really work so well at 28, perhaps soon to be 27, I suspect soon to be 27, but Britain was never really the problem inside the EU. It was an irritant, but not a problem. What we have is, and my friend Yvonne Krustia has written a little essay that got turned into a book called After Europe. His worry is not north-south, it's east-west. It is the conflict in values between eastern members, central members. The one we say central, that always implies that Russia is part of Europe, and I'm not sure that it really wants to be or is. These countries which are pretty newly sovereign are still very reluctant to give up that newly found, re-found sovereignty to Brussels. They really oppose the idea of a stronger European institutional basis. So there's a big debate going on if we need more Europe for the Eurozone. It's not clear to me that the argument is one in Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, or Slovakia. Not at all clear. They don't like the Euro, they don't like Brussels. Now to some degree, they're very pro-European. They get aid, their citizens can work and travel, but some of these countries like Slovakia, which is a fascinating place. It's five, six million people. It makes more cars per capita than any country honors, and they're all because of EU companies. It's very pro-European, yet it resists taking any migrants and resists this notion that a membership that you should have costs with it not simply benefits. Now that's a value issue, but it's also going to take quite a long time to resolve. The other thing we talk about is the Franco-German couple. It's no longer enough for Europe to size. The Germans are desperate to have a France that is in better shape, partly to share the responsibility and the blame for European leadership, because there's a lot of anti-German feeling in Southern Europe and in Eastern Europe, feeling that if you think Trump is America first, Germany has been acting as Germany first within Europe for quite a long time, even though its myth is, you know, altruism. But no one in the European Union actually believes in that myth anymore, and Merkel understands that. That's part of the problem. And you see it in defence, which I won't go into much, because others will, but already in new ideas of European defence, you have a big fight between Germany and France, because Germany wants a big club and France wants capabilities, not surprisingly. I mean, France wants more money spent on equipment and training, and the Germans just want a club. And if you look at German opinion polls, we want Germany to do more. We want Germany to play a bigger role. Germans themselves are extremely ambivalent about doing that. Now, the last point I'll make, and this one really is the last, it's not the penultimate and the third, is Brexit. I've just moved from Britain. I've spent nine years of my life there. Britain has become a country I don't even recognise anymore. And its allies don't recognise it either. I've just done a piece, if you care, in today's Sunday New York Times about Britain and Brexit. And I'm just going to end by reading you the first two paragraphs, which are many Britons see their country as a brave gallium, banners waving, cannons firing, trumpets blaring. This is how the valuable Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson likes to describe it. But Britain is now a modicised ship on the global ocean, having voted to leave the European Union. It is unmoored, heading to nowhere. While on deck, fire has broken out, and the captain, poor Theresa May, is lashed to the mast without the authority to decide whether to turn to port or to starboard, let alone do what one imagines she would want to do, and knows would be best, which is to turn around and head back to shore. People don't recognise this Britain. We think of Britain as a country of pragmatism, of common sense, political stability, a nation of shopkeepers. It's become nearly unrecognisable. It's no longer the country they understood it to be their whole lives. But I do think the EU and Britain I really hope some kind of deal will be done, because Britain, the trade is useful for Britain and the EU. Britain is a military power still though very hollowed out, let's be honest, and to imagine an EU or a Britain without some kind of decent relationship shakes me to the core. Thank you. Thank you, Steve. And as someone who has, as you said, lived in the UK for nearly a decade, you can tell and feel when you talk about Brexit that this is something that affects you also on a personal level. I'm very curious later on to hear from Michael Lothian, of course, on Brexit. But you also mentioned correctly that Europe needs a strong France. It needs France to step up and assume its former role, if you will, to be the congenial partner of Germany anyway, which is why I'm delighted to welcome here on stage a former member of the French Parliament and a president of the Commission of Foreign Affairs at the French National Assembly. Currently, she's the president of the Anna Lynde Euro-Mediterranean Foundation for the dialogue between cultures. Ladies and gentlemen, delighted to have her with us. Elizabeth Kigu, ladies and gentlemen. Elizabeth, both Richard and Steve alluded to France, of course, a very important country, a country that needs to assume its rightful place as one of the leaders of the EU if this union of 28 soon 27 nations is going to work out. That's why I'm delighted and curious now to hear from somebody from France who is deeply immersed and experienced in French politics about where the country is headed. Merci beaucoup. Je vais parler français. Je suis française. Fier de ma culture. Although I have no problem in speaking English, je parle français. J'espère que tout le monde a les écouteurs. Je voudrais commencer par dire que le marasme européen actuel que Steven a très, très bien décrit. C'est-à-dire le fait que les divisions prennent le dessus. Et la montée, spécialement en France mais partout en Europe, de l'euro-scepticisme, de l'euro-hostilité et la montée du populisme, d'ailleurs, qui est un phénomène mondial, mais enfin qui atteint l'Europe de plein fouet. Je crois que c'est lié au fait que l'Europe, au fond, l'Union européenne, s'est construite en tournant le dos au reste du monde. Elle s'est construite de façon non-briliste sous la pression de la nécessité, d'abord, parce que le plus urgent, après la Deuxième Guerre mondiale, après ces tragédies qui avaient décimé des millions et des millions de jeunes gens, génération après génération, après que l'Europe ait entraîné l'ensemble du monde dans deux tragédies absolument sans précédent. Nous avions une priorité qui était la paix et la prospérité retrouvée. Alors, le grand mérite, évidemment, et c'est mon premier point, il ne faut jamais l'oublier, c'est que le grand mérite de l'Union européenne c'est d'avoir, d'être devenue synonyme de la paix et de la prospérité retrouvée. Ça, ça a été les 30 glorieuses, 45, 75. Donc, là, tant qu'il s'agissait d'abord de l'Europe occidentale, ne l'oublions jamais, qui s'est construite à l'abri de deux protections, la première, évidemment, celle de la protection américaine pour sa sécurité, de l'Alliance Atlantique, l'article 5, il y en reviendra, et le deuxième, c'est que cette protection, elle défendait une frontière, frontière détestable, mais qui était le rideau de fer. Mais une frontière, c'est toujours protecteur. Et donc, cette Europe-là, cette Union européenne-là, elle s'est construite comme ça. Et donc, le problème qu'elle a eu, c'est qu'elle s'est... elle n'a pas été capable, en réalité, de faire face correctement d'abord à l'effondrement de l'Union soviétique qui a été un chaos mondial, mais spécialement pour l'Europe parce que nous avons été dépassés par l'histoire qui allait beaucoup trop vite et incapable de penser les conséquences qui allaient être évidemment considérables, un séisme, un chaos. À la fois, sur les pays d'Europe centrale orientale, heureusement, qui a accédé à la démocratie. Mais les élargissements, le grand élargissement de 2004 n'a pas été vraiment bien géré politiquement. On a négocié sur le commerce, très bien, parce que c'était ce que l'Europe savait faire sur l'économie. Je pense qu'on n'a pas assez parlé de valeur et on a ce problème maintenant. Qu'est-ce qu'on partage? Au début, il y avait un grand enthousiasme des pays d'Europe centrale orientale qu'il fallait accueillir parce qu'ils auraient été là avec nous s'il n'y avait pas eu le rideau de fer. Mais on n'a pas une gestion politique suffisante en tout cas de cette affaire. Et puis surtout, on s'est quand même accommodé beaucoup trop facilement de l'effondrement de l'Union soviétique ce que ça allait produire ensuite comme humiliation, comme conséquences en Russie. Alors voilà. Donc je considère moi qu'une bonne partie des problèmes européens, qui sont des problèmes internes des problèmes du futur de l'Union européenne viennent du fait qu'elle ne s'est pas tournée vers le monde extérieur. Alors ça veut pas dire renforcer à l'intérieur, naturellement. Là, le président Macron a fait il est le premier président depuis François Mitterrand avec lequel j'ai travaillé pendant 8 ans à l'Elysée, dont j'ai été la ministre d'affaires européenne, j'ai négocié Maastricht. Il est le premier président depuis François Mitterrand à avoir mis l'Europe au coeur de son projet, à avoir gagné l'élection présidentielle en enfonçant Mme Le Pen de l'Europe et de l'euro. Et de cela, nous sommes tous évidemment extrêmement reconnaissants. Sans doute que Mme Le Pen n'aurait pas été élu, mais si elle avait fait 42, 43, 45 % au lieu de 35, ça aurait été quand même autre chose. Emmanuel Macron, il a fait des propositions parce qu'il comprend que l'Europe c'est pas naturel. Europe, il faut des initiatives, il faut du volontarisme, un brin du topi même. Et ce qu'on réussit, je veux dire de l'oracle Mitterrand, c'était ça, une vision et en même temps le chemin pratique. Et je trouve que maintenant l'essentiel en raison des défis qui se posent à l'Europe, le défi de l'unité bien entendu, Sylvain a très bien dit de la question de l'immigration est devenue majeure. Mais la question de l'immigration c'est la question de la sécurité de la lutte contre le terrorisme en Afrique, quand on voit que Boko Haram achète des gens avec des clopinettes presque rien. L'immigration c'est une question de développement l'immigration c'est une question de développement soutenable on a en même temps des défis à affronter sur le climat donc le principal problème stratégique de l'Europe c'est non seulement de se renforcer et y compris sur la défense parce que Richard a parfaitement raison de dire que maintenant il faut que nous prenions en main nos propres affaires et que on n'a pas fini de payer l'échec de la communauté européenne de défense en 1954 il a fallu attendre 40 ans pour que l'Union européenne dise on pourrait peut-être avoir une ambition en matière de politique étrangère et de défense c'est-à-dire le traité de Maastricht c'est convenu multiple parce que les approches sont encore très différentes mais comme vraiment je crois beaucoup je crois que Trump nous rend service en réalité et il me semble que surtout nous devons avoir une priorité stratégique absolue l'Afrique arrimait comme l'a dit récemment Emmanuel Macron l'Europe et l'Afrique parce que nous devons affronter ces défis sinon nous ne ferons qu'accentuer le repli le refus de l'autre et en fait la confrontation donc moi c'est vraiment ce que je voulais dire alors maintenant un mot sur le Brexit moi j'espère ardemment que le Royaume-Uni reviendra dans l'Union européenne mais le peuple britannique a décidé alors il est hors de question d'avoir en tête c'est une mauvaise affaire mauvaise affaire pour l'Union européenne encore plus, il y a une tragédie à mon avis pour le Royaume-Uni dont on commence seulement à voir les effets mais je pense que si les choses continuent comme ça et c'est un motif d'optimisme pour moi les européens dont vous avez souligné les divisions vous êtes dans la négociation sur le Brexit ils sont unis pour circonscrire la négociation à 3 sujets du divorce la question des ressortissants c'est en bonne voie deuxièmement question financière évidemment on trouvera un compromis troisièmement la question d'Irlande qui est peut-être la plus compliquée quant à la question du statut futur dès lors que ces problèmes sont résolues naturellement on a essayé de trouver dès que le Royaume-Uni aura dit ce qu'il souhaite le meilleur compromis possible et surtout il nous faut préserver nos relations bilatérales et en matière de défense c'est évidemment avec le Royaume-Uni qu'il faut sur un plan bilatéral arriver à trouver alors moi j'espère j'ai deux espoirs mais je pense que le context nous aide les Européens et comme me l'a dit un de mes amis qui a britannique qui a longtemps été impliqué comme moi dans les négociations européennes soyez durs avec nous c'est la meilleure façon de nous faire revenir deuxièmement la stratégie vis-à-vis de l'Afrique qui me paraît absolument fondamentale je pense que si nous faisons ça avec les instruments évidemment qui vont avec je pense que si nous faisons ça nous retrouverons un espoir européen Thank you so much Richard, you might believe Brexit might not happen but I heard at least two people up until now both Elizabeth and Steve who might think this process is irreversible I'm very curious now much more than ever to hear what the spectrum will be once we get to Michael Lothian but Eastern Europe was mentioned and that is why I'm very pleased to welcome Polish senator and the minority leader of the European Union and the minority leader of the Polish Senate here he was also a former minister of defense of his country ladies and gentlemen please welcome Bogdan Klisch Bogdan, Poland's an important country of course one of the most populous countries in the EU has been mentioned a few times both in a positive but also let's be honest in a less favorable manner that's why I'm very curious to hear from Warsaw now I'm very glad to be here that's first and very glad also that we have good news from this morning that there are Americans that believe in Europe not only Europeans believe in the future of the European Union but also Americans do that so it means that there is a chance for renewal of the good partnership between Europe and the United States that's first secondly I'm not from Eastern Europe I'm from Central Europe and there is a difference between Central Europe that joint NATO joint European Union when Eastern Europe didn't do that and there is a huge difference also concerning the relationship to the values the approach to the values such values that were at the beginning of the Alliance in 1949 and at the beginning of the process of European integration I mean democracy the rule of law civil liberties rights of minorities and market economy Central Europeans believe in those values Central Europeans although there are governments that are Eurosceptical and that are under mind partially those values Central Europeans are committed to this set of values once again Euro-Atlantic values in my home country 84% of people are in favor of the future of the European Union are satisfied of our membership in the EU so please don't make don't put in an equal position society and the current government in Poland this is the policy of the current government in Hungary and Poland but this is not a position of Central Europeans please remember about it now about Europe because this is what we are talking about we are in the European Union in a kind of paradoxical situation because on one hand we are aware of deterioration of the political situation in our neighborhood I mean in southern and eastern neighborhood Eastern Europe and Mediterranean are in crisis the first one after the aggressive policy of the Russian Federation towards towards Ukraine we didn't expect in fact that there will be a military invasion of Russian troops to one of the parts of sovereign Ukraine especially after 1994 when Russian Federation together with Great Britain and the United States wanted sovereignty and territorial integrity of that country but it happened it means that Eastern Europe and even more in Euro-Atlantic zone the existing model of security that was once again paradoxically introduced into the strategic documents of the Alliance in November 2010 I mean cooperative model of security was blown up was blown up by this aggression of the Russian Federation because this model was based on the assumption that dialogue is much better than confrontation that military confrontation was excluded from the vocabulary of our cooperation with Russia but the confrontation confrontation exists and after the illegal annexation of Crimea after having so many troops Russian troops in Donbas region after there is no satisfying solution concerning the future of Ukrainian sovereignty and after Russian Federation is not only assertive but is aggressive power and after Russian Federation decided to show its power also in the Middle East and decided two years ago to go to the war in Syria and to be engaged strongly in this conflict we see a set of threats coming from Eastern Europe similar situation is in the southern neighborhood of Europe although after the Arab Spring we witnessed rather asymmetric threats than conventional threats but right now after four years we have stable Mediterranean region we have failed states like Libya we have recovery of authoritarian military regime in Egypt and we have only two stable countries one of them it is Morocco the other one it is Jordan that are partners for Euro-Atlantic community that's why in this deteriorating environment we have to do something with our European capabilities in the sphere of security and defense it means that Europe should take more responsibility for its own security more responsibility in the area of security now we are aware that we can deal politically with crisis, variety of crisis in our neighborhood but we are not prepared to do the same using our military capabilities because we don't have crucial capabilities that should be used in such situations we need more planning capabilities we need more operational capabilities and we need more or better coordination between civilian and military aspects of missions and operations at the level of planning and at the level of conducting of operations I would say that CSDP right now doesn't need new institutions because we have enough tools sufficient tools that were incorporated into the Lisbon Treaty after 2009 we are aware that we have permanent structured cooperation that we can use that we have European defense agency that was let's say introduced into the treaty we have battle groups we have battle groups that were prepared but they were not used even during the crisis in Mali although one of the battle groups at that time was on was on duty so we have enough institutions but we don't have enough political will to do that so I would say and this is my first I would say significant remark and expectations from European leaders that they will be able to sign a significant political message to the rest of Europe and the world that Europe is able to improve its capabilities concerning CSDP in the future it doesn't mean that we need more Europe everywhere I'm very satisfied that you used this this notion of more Europe because we are in different situation than 20 years ago that we expected more Europe everywhere working on constitutional treaty but there are at least two areas in which there is a need there is a public expectation of more Europe this is external security the citizens of European Union believe and need more Europe it means more integration in those two areas and I don't want to say that we need let's say that it is possible to improve European capabilities concerning counter-terrorism without reviewing the treaties probably not probably it would be necessary to review the treaties and to prepare a new treaty to do it in this sphere but we can do without changing our treaties in European Union renewal of our security capabilities outside it means that CSDP with operational HQ with the improvement of battle groups with the improvement of research policy of European Union that we were working together on the study about that with even the new battle groups concept that European Union is ready to do that it is necessary to have the leadership and I hope that after the creation of the new coalition of the government in Germany the Germany will be together with France in this leadership of this process I hope that after the change of the government in my country Poland will join this leadership as we propose such changes in the first and in the second Weimar letter I was one of the authors proposing in 2010 some of the solutions that are being incorporated right now Thank you so much Bogdan for giving us a view from Poland also reiterating that more than 80% of Polish citizens are very much in favor of the European Union perhaps in stark contrast to the current administration not to be confused with the politics of the current administration thanks for pointing that out and of course the reiteration and emphasis and the need for a common European defense policy something that both Richard and Elizabeth have already alluded to Richard I'm sure you're quite delighted to hear Bogdan say that Europe is not just ready but willing to take its own security in its own hand no longer looking towards DC towards Washington and towards the US for its security now many Polish citizens in the past decade or so have made their way to the UK actually to work there to study and work there that's why no mention of Brexit from from Bogdan but of course Brexit has come up quite a few times as you would have expected that's why I'm very delighted to welcome here now on stage a former member of the UK Parliament of the Conservative Party still a current member of the House of Lords and the chairman of the Global Strategy Policy think tank based in London ladies and gentlemen please welcome Michael Lothian Michael you were listed in the program as to be confirmed that's why I was delighted that the confirmation came in yesterday because we could not have had a debate about Brexit without somebody from the UK Michael I'm sure you took diligent notes throughout what was being said so take it away and give us your view from the UK and from London these days well thank you very much for inviting me I think it was a problem with my computer that I was not assured to be here on the right day but here I am anyway I've listed with great interest to what's been said you just mentioned me talking about Brexit when we said we weren't going to talk about Brexit today because there are other things to talk about and I rather endorse that I mean my view of Brexit very briefly is it's an on-going process it's highly complex we could spend days talking about it we wouldn't be any clear at the end of it and therefore I rather like to think of Brexit as something that is going on with very detailed negotiations and in the end my general view economics throughout my long political life is an economic water finds its own level whatever people try to do to control the way that it flows and I think in the end we will see Brexit achieving that too but what I wanted to talk about today is why I'm here on a panel which is talking about the EU I'm here because quite simply we are leaving the EU and I think there's no doubt about that the British people have spoken but we're not leaving Europe and that to me is very essential I'm a quarter Italian I've got major European connections Europe is part of what I am but that doesn't mean that the European Union is I spent 30 years in politics talking to people across Europe who accuse me as part of the British of being the problem in Europe the people who are holding back Europe why do you just get out if you don't like it now we're told they want us to stay and what I'm saying is we're staying in the crucial areas the crucial areas are very simple Elizabeth Giegel was talking about defence and security European defence and security without the positive contribution of the United Kingdom I think would be a very poor option for a start we provide more and I think it is I think we provide more than anybody else in terms of military capability in NATO and without the British contribution any European security system is lacking we provide an enormous amount of shared intelligence we have very sophisticated intelligence systems in the United Kingdom not least in GCHQ which are going to be vital in the future to the fight against terrorism and those are where we will have a big role to play and I think too in the general area of foreign policy Britain and Europe together not together in the European Union but working together have a major role to play there's been much talk about hostility during these conversations on Brexit but to me a future relationship without the resentment at integration and the fear of increasing bureaucracy could in the end of the day be much more productive and I say to Stephen he read out a description of my country and said I don't recognise it I don't recognise it either and I think I know why it was a newspaper article but he then mentioned Boris Johnson and I would remind him gently that Boris Johnson is more a journalist than he is a politician maybe that explains why I didn't recognise the description either I want to look instead at where we will be going after this I think Richard Burt actually set us a very big challenge he said America is moving away and I agree with him and I think that is where we as Europeans and I use the word Europeans should be concentrating and looking we need essentially to change our philosophy as Europeans whether it's the EU or generally we've got to stop being also rands to the American policies we've got to start defining our own policies of course we'll have common interests so we'll work together but in the end we have an enormous role to play on our own I spent a lot of time in the Middle East over the last 20 years and the number of times people of all sorts in the Middle East said to me why can't the Europeans deal with us directly rather than always as part of the quartet and always under the American umbrella and I feel that very strongly I think we have a major role to play if we're prepared to disassociate ourselves not completely but in terms of the policies of reconciliation and conflict resolution from that which the Americans are pursuing I mean if you look at what's happening in the Middle East at the moment Yemen this terrible crisis in Yemen we have a role to play and I think it's a role which should be being played much more widely but it's not the United Nations has the principle of the protection and responsibility to protect and I look at what's happening in Yemen at the moment where thousands of people are dying many more than would have died in Libya had we not gone in and where is the responsibility to protect why aren't we as Europeans trying to deliver that to say that we can actually salvage something from this mess and when you look again at what's happening in the general Sunni Shia conflict we are still because we are under the ambit of the United States so I may say so we're still taking sides now you do not resolve conflicts like that by taking sides I once used the analogy that if you want to referee again you have to be open to both sides if you take one side you're cheering from the sidelines and I think that's a very important element of where we as Europeans could be playing a genuine role in terms of what could be the biggest conflict of our lifetimes in the future and the last one is what we hear about all the time North Korea, we hear of the dangers but you know we hear the rhetoric I heard more rhetoric this morning the little rocket van is now being conflicted by big rocket man if I may say so and we're getting nowhere except the situation is getting more and more dangerous we should be able to say first of all this is not a fight in which we have a dog and therefore we're not going to get involved directly in what is happening at the moment but if it comes to conflict we have a major interest because the results of that conflict could impact upon us all and we need to be thinking very carefully about how Europe can position itself to make sure that that conflict is less likely rather than more likely and there is one other element I just want to mention because it's an old canard of mine if we are going to play a real role in achieving reconciliation and peace in the world we have to change the United Nations Security Council you cannot have a world order that is governed by people who are selected on the basis of the situation at the end of the last world war and where one country has a veto and can stop any sensible decision being taken forward and that's a major challenge but we in Europe should be playing a major role in trying to move towards that and then finally I want to look at where we go next in the world there are new opportunities I think Richard Burt said this new opportunities for the EU and the UK in the world and what I see is that I used to be a historian that the smooth flow of history is often interrupted by periods of substantial change and that politicians who naturally react to that by saying we mustn't allow our comfortable positions to be interrupted resist that but in the end change happens and if we are going to be genuinely constructive we have to accept that change and we have to work with it and the other integration of the EU is what President Macron has talked about may be an essential part of that change but it has to be the right sort of change it can't just be returning to the rigid structures of the EU it has to be an EU with a new vision and that vision is still I had to say lacking one of the keys to the change we are seeing around us in the world at the moment is the growth of anti-establishment feeling you look at all these political resources one common factor that is that people are voting against the establishment and we have to say to ourselves why is that? it's not just particularly amongst the young really the reason is that all these people are anti-establishment are fed up with the old order it's not enough for us to say leave it to us normal order will be resumed as soon as possible as they used to say on television people don't want normal order to be resumed they want change and that change has to come through ideas and vision and that is what at the moment our world is lacking and I see in Europe the real vibrancy that can create that vision for the future we had a playwright who wrote many years ago these words which were quoted I think by Bob Kennedy and many years ago in America some men see things that are and ask why I dream of things that have not been and ask why not and I think it's time that Europe started asking thank you so much to Michael Lothian former UK member of the parliament interesting enough ending with the quote by Robert Kennedy and not Winston Churchill as I think it's always fitting for a UK man but I think it's very interesting what you pointed out namely that Great Britain is leaving the European Union but not Europe per se now that of course is an important message we will see how that plays out in reality in a sense interestingly enough pointing out that perhaps Stephen Europe should be grateful for Brexit because now the UK is no longer holding the process of unification, true unification uphold but if I understood you correctly to dash any hopes is the British people have spoken and Brexit is final this is what I heard you say not just on the panel but in the audience hoping for a reverse coming from Michael Lothian that's not going to happen now I'm very happy that this panel is not just composed of Europeans so not as a therapeutic session if you will self-referential session but also looking you know emphasizing on the look from abroad on Europe and that's why I'm delighted to have with us the president of the Okamoto Associates he's also a former special advisor to two Japanese prime ministers and a former career diplomat one of his posts took him also as ambassador to Paris so he knows Europe very well delighted to have him with us Yukio Okamoto ladies and gentlemen now Yukio you heard many Europeans and non-Europeans talk about the current state I hope it didn't put you in too much of a depression but we are very eager of course to hear from one of the leading nations in Asia how Europe is being perceived over there is it still a force to be reckoned with is it still an element that can play a vital role in international affairs very curious to hear the perspective from Japan well thank you Mr. Aslan well thank you for including the dimension of Japan-EU relationship to this panel my depression does not come from your talks but from the way we look at the future of the world from the Japanese point of view at least for many Japanese the future of the world looks quite bleak gloomy sometimes even oppressive with three dictators going to influence the world affairs for a long time both Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi Jinping I believe will change their internal rules to be able to stay there even after they are expected the term Mr. Putin will of course win the next year's election by landslide but will he step down in 2024 I don't think so he may change the rule to be able to stay till 2030 because he will be only 71 when 2024 comes Mr. Xi Jinping he has already made his move clear that he's not going to be bound by the internal party rule stepping down after 10 years so from 2022 the party 20th convention till 21st convention of 2027 he will be there Mr. Kim Jong-un unless he is eliminated will be there for 30 40 years and we have territorial disputes from all these countries and we even feel that the world order which we have endeavored so hard to build in 20th century based on the common universal value may come to an erosion and looking at the United States we are going to have quite unique president I said Mr. Trump will be a good president for Japan but will he be a good president for the world? I don't know it remains to be seen but the past record does not encourage us very much listening to his inaugural speech and then the past United Nations General Assembly speech this past September where he essentially said that the United States will only mind its own business and all the countries should do the same will be the shining example now who are going to look after the public goods so I have been campaigning in Japan everywhere that now Japan should be really one of the banner bearers to support the public goods and departing from the diplomacy of rhetoric and who in the world can be partner with there's only EU EU is the best partner for Japan to do this new campaign first of all Europe is sharing the common destiny in terms of security with Asia if as Mr Lucian said Kim Jong-un shoots his missiles westbound it will cover the entire Europe very soon we are in one unity we don't have to wait for the ambitious plan of one world concept of China economic dimension we have so many complementariness we both lack resources and the efficient use of natural resources is incumbent upon Japan and Europe are complementariness which I will leave it to smart international relations student anyone can tell you that but so in the remaining minutes I am going to say something other people will never say that is it will benefit Japan greatly to partner with EU but have we come really to the reconciliation with Europe we have not been able to settle the issue of POW with United Kingdom not with Netherlands and we have not created a new era with Germany there was an interesting research done two years ago asking Japanese and German people do you like Germany do you like Japan and you know Japanese love Germans they consider Germany to be the war partner we fought the war together and close to half the population answers we have mainly positive view about Germany as against only 3% saying we have mainly negative view about Germany now the same public opinion poll in Germany tells diametrically opposite result with only 20 some percent of Germans saying they have mainly positive view about Japan but those people who have mainly negative view about Japan you know how many 46% as against Japan 3% I don't know my conjecture is that still many Germans think that Japan is partner of Nazis who brought the country to destruction and Japan has partial responsibility in that I think we have to really make our current set of values clear to German people but the blame should fall also on us have we been squarely facing with the past why have we not come to consideration with other Asian nations of course we have our own positions we have been apologizing over and over again to Asian countries the war reparation from late the 1950s to 60s amounted to almost 30% of our national budget but no matter what we do we are not really being forgiven especially by China and Korea my I teach at university my students asking Mr. Okamoto how long do we have to keep apologizing and I understand them I'm sympathetic to them because it's not even the doings of their grandfathers it's something done by their great grandfathers or sometimes great great grandfathers but they have to live with the shackles of the past sin for many many years and looking at Europe the amount of the level of reconciliation you've reached is very impressive and I think it is incumbent on Japan to really reform our education system there's nothing wrong with the textbooks I tell you I read all the 27 textbooks taught in high schools but they are fair but they are not really taught to students in an obligatory manner we have to do that and we have to make this and our resolution clear to generations to future generations and I think what we will learn in dealing with Europe especially EU will really help us to acquire the new dimension how we can transcend the past to come to grips with the past and through the collective wisdom to approach the final reconciliation in Asia I think that's what we are going to benefit from our union, thank you thank you to Yukio Okamoto saying that Europe is and remain a vital pillar for relationships not just in political terms but also security terms looking at the reconciliation process that still needs to be further between Japan and the European continent now ladies and gentlemen the clock is ticking I see we have approximately 12 minutes left for a Q&A which of course is preposterous this session started 15 minutes late so usually we are supposed to have at least close to 30 minutes of Q&A and Richard is very adamant of taking that time so I already have individuals in the audience and in the interest of time I will collect questions and would ask you kindly would help if you would address your question perhaps to one panelist in particular so we know where to go the gentleman the second row had his hand up first go ahead please thank you don't form a French MP one quick question mainly to Michael you didn't talk much about NATO so if you were to have a stronger position of Europe on defence what does it mean as the evolution of NATO goes that could also be addressed to Bogdan quick question to Richard and Stephen you are very enthusiastic about Europe nonetheless the Brits voted for Brexit the last popular vote in France was a no vote in 2005 I voted yes but the majority voted no mainly in Eastern Europe actually criticized the way Europe goes do each of you make one proposal of concrete evolution in the way Europe could work can you pass on the mic to the lady behind you thank you and then moving it to the other side I have a small comment also to Mr. Lothian you said about the Shia this is something I researched thoroughly I don't think not to have open to both sides I don't think the West should get involved at all this is something the Muslim the centres of Islam should reconcile among each other thank you thank you gentlemen here in the second role please I'm Chul-Gi-Joo from my ambassador to Morocco France and from a senior advisor to Korean president in 1995 we launched the Asia-Europe summit process we did it with the belief that it might contribute to making the world better it was done through initiative of president Shia and Prime Minister Gochok Tong of Singapore and then the summit meeting is continually held but even though we have the pillar of discussion on the value I wonder whether the process the existing platform is properly used in times of crisis like this where we should discuss the refugee issue we have to discuss but summit level sometimes good for meetings of leaders but in terms of producing concrete results and exchange of ideas so maybe intellectuals can join in that process I hope very much that in the Indian Pakistan beyond China and Japan and Korea and ASEAN of course so we'd better valorize and use the existing platform to discuss common challenges alright thank you let's take in a couple more questions you have the microphone I haven't forgotten you in the last row you spoke in French for Elisabeth Kigo I have an interesting idea which is that the European Union is defined in relation to its borders has this not led the European Union from time to time to turn the back to the Mediterranean and thus to lose to the Mediterranean its necessary centrality certainly it's a beautiful conclusion in Europe but is it currently with the return of growth with Macron's speeches with the initiatives of Merkel it's not the time to reconcile with a border because turning the back to the Mediterranean after me it was also at the detriment of Europe my name is Stan Couson, Capgemini question regarding immigration Richard Burt told us that EU should define a strategy for migrations and immigration question to the panel what is the likelihood that within a year let's say when we meet for the 11th edition of this World Policy Conference this strategy has been defined number one and second its execution has started effectively alright thank you so much last question the floor is yours Daniel Delano, the central bank of Romania two questions first one to Michael Lothian when you say that the UN the governments of the UN should change because it reflects there is a legacy problem more clearly what do you have in mind basically secondly Merkel, Macron the key tandem but what is the critical mass in terms of visions we should help the Union redeem itself and move forward they may not be kindred spirits when it comes to very concrete steps thank you so much now wide variety of questions to many of you Richard some of you were addressed to you personally also take this as an advantage for final remarks as we go through the row and then wrap this session up Richard well I'll make it just a couple of quick comments first of all I detect in many of the questions the kind of persistence of what I would call Euro pessimism now if we were here a year ago we would all be ringing our hands about the threat of populism we'd be worried about about Marie Le Pen in France we'd be worried about what was the AFD in Germany in fact one of my colleagues Bill Drozdiak has just been published unfortunately wrote it six months ago it was called fractured continent people aren't talking really anymore about a truly fractured continent we know about Brexit we know about Catalonia I think there is a new optimism and I think the optimism does go directly to Merkel on the one hand and Macron on the other and there will have to be a grand bargain there as far as I understand Emmanuel Macron he is laying out in a kind of brilliant exciting way a kind of Kennedy-esque way a vision for Europe and it's a vision based on finding a way to reform and strengthen European EU institutions including the European monetary system the big question for a long time has been are the Germans ready to be brought along are the Germans prepared to make the necessary financial conditions necessary financial concessions to make Europe work now the Germans will never agree on a transfer union but Merkel in the campaign made some comments and has said that I think that there is a new willingness to think about reforms particularly of the monetary system of creating what Europe in my judgment genuinely needs which is a common fiscal strategy and maybe the fact that Wolfgang Schoibler will not be the finance minister in the next German government means that there may be some more flexibility there so I'm fundamentally optimistic about reinventing this German French-German access within Europe the motor that's important are necessary to make Europe work last comment there's this question about can you come up with one idea for changing Europe I think I mentioned it I do think that immigration has already been demonstrated to be a serious danger to European unity and we saw that in very stark terms in terms of how different nations have to say the nations of central Europe responded to the problems of immigration I think historically it's understandable these were countries that weren't as cosmopolitan if you will as Western European countries they were under Soviet domination they didn't have the experience and the openness that Western European countries had they responded in a predictable way but I think if a European-wide approach an EU-wide approach not a national approach if it can be worked out is necessary because another crisis in the Middle East a crisis in North Africa could re-emerge and create a new set of strains that would be very counterproductive but I see is the very positive trends that are alive alive and well in Europe today Thank you Richard for your assessment and interestingly enough of course pointing out German leadership Germany's role in moving forward this is a panel not too many people not too many panels these days on the future of Europe without a German on the panel but we have I'm the moderator so we have six panelists as is I won't chime in here but I know that German leadership I think is talked about much more outside of Germany than it is within Germany interestingly enough but Steve let's call it Franco-German leadership there you go I'm sure Elizabeth would have corrected me by the time it's her turn but first Steve you may not be German but of course you're a German expert there were a couple of questions I think that you are very stew to address I'll be quick about this I mean certainly the existential panic that led to the Bratislava summit has calmed down there's no question and at least the European Commission is willing to take more political risk whether it you know they can come to a common asylum policy I doubt partly because it's such a matter of national issues but not just one proposal three proposals very quick proposals one the problem is an immigration the problem is loss of control the problem is the sense of uncontrolled immigration and there is now more Ordnung there's more order to it even in Germany I think that issues calming down in Central Europe is being told what to do by Brussels on this issue or other issues so three one frontier Schengen has to have external frontiers that work otherwise it doesn't work Frontex actually which has a new name that I forget is getting a lot more money and it is doing more I think that's really important second Greek debt it has to be forgiven at least big chunks of it the Germans are going to have to swallow that down it's just it's unsustainable it's ridiculous you can't have a stable Europe a stable Euro otherwise and three my other suggestion is that council meetings of country leaders should begin with breakfast and not with dinner it would make a tremendous difference I think to the quality of the decision making so on Merkel Macron I mean I respect Kellodas for Macron what audacity quite extraordinary I think his speech was very good but a little too early because the Germans hadn't yet figured out a government and I think he should have done more coordination not just with Madame Merkel but with the countries who were too who rather resented the speech because they felt left out of it and you know we'll see I mean I've just looked at a bunch of poll figures done by the Korber Foundation from Germany and we want a lot from Germany I'm not sure Germans want to give us what we want I mean yes they like more European defense they don't want to spend any money for it they will not I mean half of Germans will think they should not come to the aid of a NATO member if it were attacked by Russia half that's article 5 and yet 85% of Germans believe the US will come to their aid if necessary so there's an ambivalence and a schizophrenia which is historical and lasting and has not yet been resolved Thank you Steve and we will of course continue to look forward to your astute observations in the New York Times about the current state and future state of the EU Elizabeth there were a couple of questions directed to you personally so please go ahead Yes, thank you First of all, Merkel I think it can give what Macron has decided to do reforms and that Germany almost wants to do internal reforms for a long time and the second thing is that for the first time since the fall of the Berlin Wall Germany needs France it needs France precisely for its security terrorism and also to master together the movement of population the problem is not that it exists because we need it in addition to immigration Germany is in a terrible demographic decline even more than the other European best the problem is the organization of immigration and you are right the duty to welcome refugees it's a duty not only moral but it's an international duty to address this question between Europeans so it means of course the European Union must continue to strengthen but really we can't do everything at the European Union there are a lot of things a lot of things that must be of the responsibility of the European Union what the European Union must do is to face more the global challenges in a global world there are global challenges that can't be simply isolated so from there the question of security is obviously central and there we have to get there we don't have the time today but we have to go deeper because Trump is helping us but it's not tomorrow morning that the European Union will be able to replace the American umbrella and Article 5 it's completely unrealistic so without a doubt we have to focus the Atlantic Alliance on its initial vocation which is to protect the European continent and not to be left by pillage and on the other hand as Bogdan said that the European Union can take better the security at the same time with its neighbour so we know very well that there is no military solution that the external interventions always end by causing negative reactions or even future conflicts we saw it with Iraq so obviously the battlegroups the Poland against Russia if there was never a battlegroup so we really need to get deeper that is to say between Europeans to have a real European army industry if we don't have an army industry it's not even worth thinking about and then to have a common strategy so now I come to immigration because it's true that it's a huge problem the name I mean for me even if in an emergency we need to strengthen our borders of course it was planned from the start and we didn't do it for the euro it was planned that we make an economic union and we didn't do it so we need to do what we should have done for about 20 years but with these urgent solutions people risk their lives to cross the Mediterranean they will go in any way so we need to develop these solutions in the middle I don't see how we can solve this question without, as I said very very well Fata Wallalu if we continue to consider that the Mediterranean is a frontier the Mediterranean must be a pivot to organize a partnership between Europe and Africa and the Middle East I don't because the Mediterranean is the Maghreb but it's also I think we won't go out otherwise it's the reason for which it seems to me that our main objective must be to have a vision for the organization of the European continent in this world that has become more uncertain with Donald Trump and the organization of the European continent we didn't talk much about Russia we should have but the organization of this continent is turning more towards the south frankly Europe has succeeded in finding answers to fear during the war today Europe has to find answers together to the fear of the moment that are linked to globalization but now they are telling me in no diplomatic terms that the session is over and I know that you have to catch a flight so why don't you go ahead we won't hold it against you we don't want to miss your flights and Bogdan and Michael if I could ask you to be very very brief so let's wrap up the session just one word before I leave EU has been always regarded by Asians especially by Japan as an anchor of conscience and stability and it's so sorry to see Britain leave alright now that's what I call the graceful exit thank you thank you so much Mr Ogamoto have a safe flight back to Tokyo Michael and Bogdan let's be brief three very short answers first of all I didn't talk about NATO NATO dilutes the argument about European security first of all if America is not part of NATO there is no NATO secondly the last time that NATO article 5 was invoked was self-defense in relation to 9-11 in Afghanistan out of area and we begin to dilute the argument about European security when we bring NATO in second Shia suddenly I agree it would be much easier not to take sides but the Sunni they do have the backing of a majority of the West and the Shia feel very strongly about that and I think we have a role in Europe where we could rebalance that slightly and give a certain reassurance which would be useful third of the United Nations I could write a book about this but basically we have a system in the United Nations Security Council where one permanent member can say no and that becomes the world order and we need to get to a situation where there is a better judgment of what is in the world's interest rather than the interests of one nation and we need to be able to get there just one final comment I keep on hearing everybody is reassured this year because after last year's concerns it didn't happen I wasn't here last year and maybe I didn't get that feeling but what I must say is this from Britain's perspective what was it 25% of the French voted for Marine Le Pen 20% or whatever it was in Germany voting for the far right watching this movie across Europe that is scary enough these countries are prepared to invest their electoral strength in movements like that and I think we make a great mistake thank you Michael Terry is waiting in the wings and you know he can be very persistent 60 seconds Bogdan 60 seconds, okay it was a very good question about NATO we haven't forgotten about NATO and this panel was about the abilities of the European Union to react in the sphere of security that's why we didn't talk about NATO but very briefly I'm satisfied with both results of Newport and Warsaw Summit concerning reinforcement of the eastern flank of the Alliance enhanced forward presence and pilot forward presence these were good solutions and they were and are still consequently implemented so implementation of those decisions goes in the right way that's first, secondly there was a crucial decision of the Warsaw Summit this declaration between the EU and NATO signed together by Szekjano of NATO and both Junker and Tusk on behalf of the European Union on the cooperation between those two entities it is necessary to enhance cooperation between the EU and NATO in the sphere of security without that we cannot speak about better of security in Europe and thirdly I have a feeling that we should work within NATO on the strategy concerning the southern flank because the strategy concerning the eastern flank during the summit in Warsaw was presented in a very clear and visible way but to protect the protection of the southern border of Europe was not consisted only on some elements we should work on comprehensive strategy within NATO how to reinforce and to protect the southern alliance border thank you ladies and gentlemen surprisingly we weren't able to address and solve all problems within 90 minutes of the European Union but I think we were able this spectacular panel was able to give you a lot of food for thought particularly after the Trump panel yesterday building up on what was being said yesterday about the future of the EU of the US now focusing on the future of the EU thank you so much for your active participation but particularly for the spectacular panel thank you so much thank you