 But when you take a step back and you look where the NASDAQ is, how is it different than when it was here, than when it was here, than when it was here, and here, and here? Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Just a quick piece of business before we get into this broadcast. If you are planning to join us for next week, whether it's the full webinar or the private audio feed, we are doing a pretty cool panel show. Usually, once a month, we do a pancakes and pivots, kind of off hours Q&A. You know, off hours, a lot of times, it's much easier to answer a lot of questions in depth during the course of the day. So we usually do this the first Sunday of every single month. Tomorrow is a very, very special pancakes and pivots. It is going to be a panel of traders, just like a lot of you guys have been trading for less than two, three years. Some of you guys are obviously under the pattern day trading rule and having your own journey, how to navigate it. And this will be hosted by Kenyon, okay, and this panel, it's not going to be one of those scenarios that somebody says, well, I turned $5,000 into $3 million. No, it's not. It's more about the psychology of how they are navigating the markets, the discipline, okay, the process, the discipline, the mentality behind every single day, what to do, what they've been doing right, what they've been doing incorrectly, the things that they've omitted. So it's a really, really cool show. I know a lot of you guys have been trading less than three years. Unfortunately, I have nothing to input into this conversation, so that's why Kenyon will be moderating this, but it should be really, really good. If you are watching this on Saturday, right, and I believe the video will come out on Saturday, Sunday, right? Sunday is nine o'clock in the webinar, will be the live event. If you are watching this after Sunday, don't worry about it, it will be recorded and sent to you shortly after. So it's just kind of a cool announcement. So for all you guys who are in that kind of that same boat trading less than three years, you know, struggling with a smaller account and trying to figure out the best way to kind of navigate, this will be a pretty good value. The link in the description will be somewhere in the video. Kyler will put it in. He's really, really good at all that graphic stuff. So most important part is, if you are interested, come join us tomorrow. It should be pretty good. So let's talk about the tape. So market was down this work, right? The market was down. The Dow was down 1% this week. That's it. The S&P was down 1% this week. And, you know, you see a lot of people sensationalizing this week, like this was the world's worst week, Armageddon in the history of the world. Okay, let me just give you guys a quick history lesson, really quick. When the internet bubble imploded, it was the absolute worst six months that you can see in dissipation of capital. Very, very quickly, very, very aggressively, right? That was memorable. After 9-11, okay, and I traded through 9-11, you couldn't buy stocks because you were afraid of a terrorist attack. You couldn't short stocks because, well, number one, you were afraid that these terrorists were going to get caught and the market was going to rally aggressively against you. That was memorable, right? Very, very aggressive conditions. The two and a half, almost three years of the mortgage crisis, okay, that we thought there was an Armageddon of our global economy. We don't know what was about to happen, okay? That was memorable. March of 2020 that we introduced this global pandemic that we had the worst month in the history of the world, that was memorable. The market was down 1%. Okay, 1%. Tested the 50-day moving average and that's it. There was nothing memorable about this day about last week. There was nothing aggressive about this week. There was nothing materialistic that put you on tilt about this week. It was another long steps into a very, very long career. That's it, okay? The market was very organic. The market was very technically ready to move in the bias that it did. And oh, by the way, in between a lot of a really good aggressive selling, there was a lot of really good aggressive action this week to the downside. There was sprinkled in a 700-point update in the Dow and a 300-point update for the Nasdaq. So if you took that recipe, right, that recipe and put it into the mortgage crisis, the meltdown, 9-11, this was a day at the beach versus a memorable event. So guys, especially for you new traders, you don't have a long history. You know, you don't have a long history to kind of go back into your database. This is just one week out of many, many weeks. So relax, take a step back. If you got caught off guard of what you didn't see coming, that's okay, okay? You're new to this business, okay? You're not supposed to know everything. You're not supposed to see all the signs and recognize all the risks that are in front of you. A lot of you guys are brand new and you're trading off of the incredibly aggressive market and incredibly aggressive gains that the market has produced over the last several weeks. So this is something new. This is your really second shot at adversity. Remember, pandemic March 2020, this wasn't it. 1% versus 3,000-point Dow days only two years ago, 1,000-point Nasdaq decline only a couple of years ago. This was nothing compared to that. So a lot of times traders sensationalize what they see in front of them and make it more crazy than what it is. This was very organic. This is a very high probability and this is all technically confirmed. So this is a time in your life that you don't want to make things, you don't want to make a mountain out of a mothill. You don't want to sensationalize something there that wasn't. We are basically a stone throws away from the last run of all-time highs. All we did this week was retest back to the 50-day moving average. So you guys remember, we reclaimed the 50-day moving average on October the 18th. And October the 18th, because the 50-day was so important, that started a two-month, two-and-a-half-month, really, really aggressive move in the equities markets, right? And it took all asset classes with it. It also took the bitcoins of the world with it. Everything went higher. And this week, things got aggressive. Technicals started breaking down off of minor levels, the 5, the 10, the 20, a 100-day moving average. But the 50-day moving average, when you look at your research and you kind of take a step back and kind of just breathe a little bit, right? Breathe a little bit and calm down. All we did this week is retest the 50-day moving average that we reclaimed on October the 18th. Nothing more, nothing less. And this was just the basic scenario of gravity is real. You had some Fed talk coming in. Okay, cool. You had a new variant that was introduced. Okay, cool. Nothing that we haven't seen before. And all we did was organically, successfully, okay, and we'll get to that in a second, retest the 50-day moving average, bounce off the 50-day moving average. And right now, the world is not going to end, okay? Everything is okay. Christmas is still on. And the most important part is now, at least we have a definitive line in the sand going forward in the future. So if the bear is taking control of that level, then you can start preparing for sell-side bias. But until that happens, we again, we're above the 50-day moving average. You have to give the bulls the benefit of doubt doesn't mean the market will go up on Monday. Because again, when I go through my research over this weekend, 90% of everything that I'm preparing for on Monday is definitely on the sell-side. But it doesn't mean the market can't have a dead cat bounce for two, three, four days and even start reclaiming macro levels. And if those macro levels start reclaiming again, then all these stocks that were weak, that successfully back-tested into major support, then they're going to start getting healthy again. Then bulls will start getting more aggressive and sellers will start getting tired and start being complacent at the levels we are. But at least, again, trade on data. Don't start talking about this is the worst week. No, until you trade it through 9-11, until you trade it through the internet bubble, until you trade it for three years, not three days, three years of the mortgage crisis, what we saw last week was, again, to put it into perspective, pretty much any random week that you're going to have in your trading career. Stocks go up, stocks go down. The most important part is our opinions mean absolutely nothing. It's all about technical analysis and getting clues through data. So just take that in mind for grain assault. When you look at where the big technical picture is, and again, this is supposedly a seasonality of strength. This is traditionally a market that is supposed to go higher, but supposed to and actually will are two different things. And when you look at the reality of what the market has been, we've been in this bullish cycle. Okay, look at the weekly view of the cues. Does this look scary to you? Which part of this reminds you of 9-11, the mortgage crisis, or any worst case scenario you've seen, right? I'll wait. It's just reality, guys. Sometimes, again, we build things up in our heads to kind of put things that are not there. Okay, I've done it myself. I know every single human being, if they're human, they do it themselves. So it's very, very easy to make something out of nothing. But when you take a step back and you look where the NASDAQ is, how is it different than when it was here, than when it was here, than when it was here, and here, and here, right? Guys, really, I'm telling you, take a deep breath, especially if you're newer traders. Take off the panic button. Take off everything that you're sensationalizing in your head right now that this market was in your head versus the reality. All this was was a successful back test to the 50-day moving average, like I said before. And now, at least, we have a complete line in the sand going into next week. And if we start testing this line in the sand, then you should start, again, starting putting yourself in a position of strength, whether it's hedging your portfolio, whether it's trading exclusively on the short side, or making an adult decision. If you need to stay out of the market, stay out of the market. But again, don't make this more than it actually is. So going into this week, again, although we reclaimed, and the Bulls did a great, great job, although we reclaimed the 50-day moving average, when you do your research, you're going to see a lot of names getting really beat up, especially in the technology name. If you saw what happened this week, Tesla had a great run, and then Tesla started losing organic levels, and that's the name of the game. They started losing organic levels, the five. Everybody knows how important the five-day moving average is, at least for me. The five, the 10, the birth of the trade, the 20, which is macro support, and had a really, really aggressive move into this rising wedge. So Tesla, look at the bottom channel here. There's no reason to guess if Tesla's going to go higher or lower. Wait for these channels to confirm. Are there intermediate channels that you can take advantage of? Absolutely. But at least here's your big picture, right? The lows from November the 15th is your big picture. That's also going to correlate with this rising 50-day moving average. You don't have to guess it's going to go lower. Wait for this level to get taken out, and if it does, well, hell, it's going to go lower. If it doesn't, and they start reclaiming the five, 10-day moving average, it's going to go higher. A name like NVIDIA, same thing, right? NVIDIA had this really, really rockstar move. It tested the 20-day moving average successfully, bounced above it, had a really aggressive sell-off this week until the bulls defended the prices towards the end of the day. You don't need to, again, you don't need to guess. Wait for this 20-day moving average. If bears start reclaiming this 20-day moving average and confirm it, then we're going to go down to this bottom channel here. If the bulls start getting aggressive and the NASDAQ truly did hold the 50-day moving average, then if NVIDIA starts reclaiming the five and the 10-day moving average, well, guess what? Then it's going to go back to its 52-week highs. Now, there are definitely levels, there are definitely names, that are starting to really come in, okay? And they started breaking technical levels. Like Rivian is no Tesla. It's no Lucid. Hell, I don't even know if they're Nikola. Okay, let's not get out of control. I don't even know if Nikola even produces anything. But the point is, you can see the hype that it ran up, the deflation of the balloon, and now we've had the lows close in this whole formation, and if the market starts confirming level, then yeah, this is a clear shot back to its IPO lows for bigger macro moves, right? A name like that looks like it's really, really ready to fall apart. A lot of these earnings plays have been fantastic this week, have been fantastic last week. Like a name like Salesforce, right? They blew up on earnings. It tested the same level here three times in a row. If this thing starts building below these earnings lows, then this thing is going to have a really, really aggressive move down for several weeks. Just like we've been demonstrating for weeks and weeks and weeks, and names like a Zillow, or Fubu, or Roku, or Best Buy, right? Or Best Buy, just real, the earnings low plays have been absolutely outstanding. So again, guys, take a deep breath, prepare for both sides of the market. That's the only thing you could do. If you're an investor and you feel antsy, okay? If you feel antsy, if you feel that you don't have control of this market, well, get your control back, right? Isn't that the most important part? Whatever type of trader you are, you want to make sure you get the control back. So how do you get control back as of a trader? So if you are uncomfortable with your position as a professional trader, what you can do is either, you have several choices. You either get rid of the position, right? You either get rid of the position or you hedge your book. You don't have to sit there defensive. That's the last thing you want to do. You don't want to sit there defensive. You don't want to sit there and put yourself in a position that you don't have any control. Have control. So if you're heavily invested in tech, short the cues against your book until cues start showing some signs of stability that the market has stopped going down. Don't just sit there and watch your portfolio bleed. You hear people talking about it all the time, oh my God, my portfolio's taken hit. Short some cues against it, right? Short some spies against it. Do everything you have to possibly do rationally to protect your investments. Why just sit there and watch your portfolio bleed? There's no guarantee your stocks will ever come back. So at least put yourself in a position of strength instead of position of weakness. It's a very, very important part. And if you don't feel comfortable trading with the market, again, I hear a lot of people talking about, well, cash is a position. Okay, I guess, put it a different way, right? Put it a different way. The market never has to snap back. That's what I've seen that for years and years and years. We'd always like to believe that the bulls will always come back and really reclaim things. And that has happened a majority of the times, but they don't have to happen. We've seen some markets for two, three years decline very, very aggressively. So if you don't want to participate, obviously, on the long side of a diving market, you know, God gave us, again, two hands, right? Two feet, two eyes, two ears. Those both sides of the market. You don't need to sit there, again, sit there complaining about how the market is irrational. The market's not irrational. The market goes up when the market goes down. You have two choices. Either participate or don't participate. But don't give yourself a clutch, a crush. To turn around and say, you can't do anything about it. The market doesn't suck. The market doesn't suck. Okay? You're just not positioned to capitalize on what the market is telling you what's about to happen. And that's okay as well. Okay? There's nothing wrong with that. But again, remember, the market never needs to do what you want it to do. The reality of the market might be a little bit different than your reality. You either have to adapt or move to the side. But to sit there and complain of what you think is happening or the market's being manipulated, it's the stock market. It goes up, it goes down. It's up to you to conform or do everything possible to protect yourselves from exposure that you are not prepared for. So let's talk about Friday's session. Again, the whole week was incredibly aggressive. When you see moves, you know, when you see multi-day moves of absolute destruction, that's technical analysis. That's just not stocks randomly going down. And this is kind of the whole thing we've been kind of preaching for years and years and years. If you've been watching this broadcast, it's all technical. It's not about opinions. I'm the king of the idiots. There's not a bigger idiot than me on the planet. Okay, I'm not a good guess. The market can go up, the market go down. We have no idea. So we prepare through data. We prepare through technical analysis. And once you see stocks confirmed, whether to the long side, to the short side, our job, whatever your process is, is to take advantage. So let's talk about Friday's session. NTS 105, if it builds below, can flush. Primarily the day was all selling. So here was the 105 level, right? Here's the 105 level. It confirmed it, pre-market went down very, very aggressively. You're gonna see a lot of names. You see this low here? 105, 30s. You can see here just, there's a lot of aggression on Friday. And unfortunately, if you were one of those traders who were buying the dips on levels that got confirmed, you really felt it. You really felt it very aggressively. So NTS took out that 105, just got slammed all the way down to this 100 area. Still looks lower. Still definitely looks lower. Rivian, I still think this thing tests the IPO lows. Rivian 106 held three times. If it builds below, can flush. Rivian got hit. Rally back a little bit into the close. But here's the 106 level. And again, guys, the more times a stock test, the same level over and over and over, the higher probability it's gonna finally snap. So 106 was low here, 106 was low here. Finally snapped at 106, went all the way down to 100. If it snaps that 100 this week, I have to assume this thing's gonna see its IPO lows of 95, 20. NVIDIA, I was actually watching NVIDIA to the upside. It came nowhere close to 326. So obviously never confirmed. And this is when you know the market was very, very aggressive. One was the last time you saw Microsoft down 10 that had nothing to do with earnings. But that's the whole point. That's the whole point of technical analysis being ready for it. Microsoft 327.75 that builds below can flush. Yeah, I would say it flushed. Okay, I definitely can say it flushed. So here is the whole channel here. So this 328, 328, 328, 327.80s. So once this thing took out this 328, 328, 327.70 level, this thing went down $10 for Microsoft to go down 10. And again, you could see what the common denominator is traded down to, right, the 50 day moving average. So again, here's another example of a line in the sand going forward. So huge move, huge move on Microsoft. Coin got absolutely destroyed. 283 if it builds below can flush. Here was coin, right? So coin took out the 283. Again, went down all the way down to the 50 day moving average. Went all the way down to 258. Again, another successful test of the 50 day moving average, mirroring the NASDAQ 100. Another company out of 8,000 companies are gonna have a line in the sand going into next week. Square was an absolute amazing, amazing mover. Amazing, amazing mover from Friday, excuse me, from Thursday's session. Took out the 205 level, traded down all the way down to 93. I was actually looking for an upside move on Square. Okay, upside move, obviously it never came, but there was a sneaky pivot there that just never got confirmed. Snow I was watching through the upside never got confirmed. Marvel, not a big move, 87 needs to build. Only went up like a dollar in change. But the ones that came in got killed. Not only 272 was the next stop, 262 was the next stop. Rivian take on the way down, went down six. Microsoft got killed. CRM, I still love, love, love, love. Guys, watch that 251 level going into next week. Microsoft is getting destroyed, take down much more. And again, here's the whole perfect example of kind of thinking rationally as much as everything was getting slammed, here's the reality. For experienced traders only, and I'm sorry guys, this is 380, 70 support, not 180. My dyslexia kicks in from time to time. The 50 day moving average was 380, 70s. For experienced traders only, watch for a bounce there. So here was the cues, and this is my whole point. There was nothing sensationalized about Friday's session. This shouldn't have been a memorable event. So here was the 380, 70s, everybody see that? Here's the 380, 70s, and the bulls finally reclaimed it on the close and rallied at about $3 into the close. So this market is very organic. It's very driven by technical analysis. Yes, absolutely. We have new variants. We have Fed. We have everything still on the table to make things scary, but it's very tradable. Scary is being unprepared. Scary is being not in control. It could be scary. You know what's scary? Chasing the stock up 200% of the day. You know what's scary? Jumping into a trade because some guy on Twitter says it's going higher. That's scary. Technical analysis is not. It's organic. It's boric, but the most important part is you're in control and it's highly predictable. Guys, have a great day. Have a great weekend. Again, for all you guys who are joining us for this upcoming week, tomorrow is a very, very cool panel. Hope you guys make it. If not, God bless. Have a great, great weekend, and I'll see you all on the field next week. Take care.