 This is ThinkTech and it's Wednesday noon, that's what we do. And we have on the screen, we have Winston, Winston Welch, we have Cynthia Sinclair, we have Stephanie Dalton. We're all here together, we're going to talk about Corona. Let me open it by saying, you know, we hear about the possibility of flattening the curve. So you guys, is the curve flattening? Is the curve flattening in the U.S.? Is the curve flattening worldwide? Is the curve flattening in Hawaii? Stephanie, is it? I think that Governor Cuomo tells us his curve is flattening for hospitalizations, not yet for deaths. D.C. is waiting for the peak. Their peak is the 20th next week. So there are, everything's on hold in their Medicare hospital systems. And they've canceled everything through April and hopefully May 1. And so they're waiting to see what's going to happen in what, five days. And that's when they should have their peak and then they'll be making more decisions after that. So I don't think they're overwhelmed in any way like New York, you know, they say New York's the worst. Well, let me know. Actually, one question is, do we have any reinfection process anywhere? Winston, we got anybody going back up? I thought maybe we had some of that. Last time I talked to our correspondent in Japan, he said, you know, it was actually getting worse. And I think Singapore has had a bit of a reinfection, notwithstanding despite all the wonderful efforts that it has made, it's been very clever. But there are other places too. You have a sense of whether we are seeing the phenomenon of increase in infections and deaths? I think that we're in many ways just at the beginning of this throughout huge portions of the world. I mean, we're seeing Russia really ramp up now. And it hasn't, we're not getting any information out of the subcontinent in India or Africa or Latin America, really except Ecuador where there has some really tragic news. But I'm not hearing a lot from there and it could be just that we're so obsessed with what's going on in America. We don't, but America seems to be a bright spot in some ways that the infections seem to be leveling off or, I mean, it depends on the state. And as we saw in the newspaper today, Hawaii is the third lowest state. We're very likely to get 36 per 100,000 versus New York, which was 1,000 per 100,000. And New Orleans was about half that 404 years, something like that. So, but Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, they're all seeing resurgence because maybe they, it's people coming back or migrant workers. And we're going to find all kinds of leaks in the system. But since they're at the front, they're going to probably plug the leaks sooner than we will. Yeah, and this is troubling. And your point a moment ago, I think it's worth dwelling on for a minute. That is, you know, the Trump, of course, he folds in on the country. The media, it folds in on Trump and thus on the country. We're not paying enough attention to the global phenomena that are going on all over the world. Up, down, whatever it is, we need to know about it. Remember 1919, remember how the Spanish flu went to Europe? We thought we'd beat it. It came right back. And we had this huge reinfection in the country was worse than the first one. So we really care. We care about what happens outside the U.S. Unfortunately, Trump doesn't. So, you know, Cynthia, you know, what, what about that? What about Trump's shoving off on the World Health Organization? Is that a good idea? Should we sort of ignore what happens with them and with Europe and Asia and Africa and South America? Or is that a big mistake? That is a huge mistake. He has cut all the funding to the World Health Organization. And we need to remember in the very beginning, the World Health Organization is the one that was warning us that we ignored all of their warnings. Also, they wanted to give us lots of PPE, the masks, the gowns, all of the things that are so important, the testing, the test kits, all of that. And yet Trump said, no, I don't want it, which is just crazy. And then the first set of test kits that we had were faulty. And so you've got to wonder why and exactly what company was it that was producing those test kits? You know, I trust the World Health Organization over some individual sort of maybe connected to Trump going to make money on the whole deal. So I'm really concerned about the World Health Organization being left out of this whole picture. Winston, you know, there have been various discussions, controversies, if you will, about whether we should listen to the business organizations involved in Trump and some of Trump's family and advisers when they say it's time to go back. In fact, to go further, he says, I don't care what the governors say, I'm in charge here. I have absolute power. I want to go back work right now. That sounds in the context of this discussion. And I know you talked about this in the last hour or two on Trump week. That sounds pretty dangerous to me. Can you tell us the status of that conversation and where it's pointing and what the risks are? Well, I mean, you have someone who just says he's in charge of everything, which is not true. It is at the local level. It's very clear that the power at the local level to restart things. It doesn't mean that there may not be some attempts to blackmail states or maybe even corporations to get restarted in whatever that means. But these companies also have the reality that they have workers and maybe the workers will be blackmailed. I don't need no more stimulus checks or no more something. But you remember when the Pilots Union first started saying, we're not going to be flying to China anymore. Well, just try and start United Airlines without pilots. It doesn't really work or any airlines or any company where the workers are saying, this is dangerous for us to proceed here until we can guarantee that workers are reasonably safe. So it's a non-starter until we have some fact-based information forward. And that includes a lot of testing. It includes huge numbers of reduction in active cases. And nobody knows, but it's not going to happen by May 1. That's for sure. Well, Stephanie, what do you think he's going to do? You know, we see this over and over again where he kind of tips you off about what he's planning, what he's thinking. And then he keeps repeating it with a crescendo and he has all his bass repeating it and Fox News repeats it. And before you know it, he takes action. It's like the World Health Organization. He gave us a leading indicator on that. So now he's giving us a leading indicator on, well, you know, the business guys that I talked to, they're more important than the health guys. So ultimately we have to open up the economy again. And I have my son-in-law, you know, he tells me what to do. So, you know, he may very well say any day that as of a certain magical day, as a magical moment, we're all back to work. And I want all you guys out there go out to work. And it's, you know, this is your president speaking to you. Are people going to do that? Are the governors going to do that? Or are they all going to say, no, you're not in charge and we're not listening to you if no credibility? What do you think will happen? It's a hard question. What do you think will happen when he does that? Well, I think we know for sure now that his self-interest takes priority over the interests of the nation or the citizenry. So that he's going to be operating on that agenda, which will be reinforced by his committee, which has only business people on it, those who have investments in that. No people, no scientists, no data people who can make recommendations based on what is the condition of this virus. And what are the chances that this sucker is going to come back on us as it did in 1990? It was so good that you brought that up because that second wave took out more people than the first one did. And so we should be learning from that. And with that learning requires data and more testing and the scientific points rather than his opinion. So I would say that we're all in jeopardy. He already seems to have this May 1 date in his mind, and that might be his target that he's going to lean towards and try to get people out. Fortunately, there are some exemplars here like Governor Cuomo and the Coalition of the Northeastern States so that there may be some stopgap here or some, you know, attention gather that can say, Hal, wait, it's not ready. And we're making decisions based on data and the progress of this disease and the possibilities of it returning. And so we may get some protection from that force field. Well, Stephanie, if he tells you it's May 1, and he tells you it's okay. I talked to my business guys and, you know, anonymous medical guys, and it's okay for you to go out now. I want you to go to the opera. I want you to go to group meetings. I want you to go to the store not to worry about, are you going to do that? Well, everybody here in our little group of four who is going to listen to him on May 1 and go out and do what he says, will you raise your hand? Let me go get my orange Kool-Aid jug here for a second. Let me put that in my bag. Let me have a couple of mega gallons. No, I mean, no, we learned. Beautiful gallons of orange Kool-Aid. 1919 was millions dead because of the second wave. So why in the world that has not been brought up? And as I, you know, and so Fauci's there and the woman is there, Dr. Bricks. And hopefully they will be bringing up some issues as we get closer. Well, let's assume, let's assume Cynthia, let's assume that Trump is moderated somehow. And he says, I want you guys to go back on May 1. But, you know, I want you to wear masks. Actually, he never ordered masks. Did he? He refused to order masks. He never did that. He said something about, I can't do that. I don't create bank robberies was really crazy. So it's supposed to gives you a moderated kind of, you know, halfway approach on May 1. I want you to maintain whatever your governors say in a way of distancing. Take all the precautions, but go out, go shopping, go make an economy. Would that work? No, I don't believe it would. And, you know, Governor Cuomo in New York said something that I thought was pretty striking. He said, you know, the numbers are somewhat stabilizing, but it is stabilizing at a horrific rate. They still are losing 700 people a day. So yeah, they're not losing 1500 anymore, but 700 is a lot of people. So yes, it's stabilizing, but it's, if we were to get a second wave when we're already over taxed to begin with, then we've created something that there is no stopping and that there is no way to help. So yes, all of our mitigation, stay at home stuff is working, you know, but it's only two weeks away. And we are now seeing things to ramp up in states like South Dakota. Kay Winston, Winston, what time, when would you think is an appropriate time? Forget about Trump's, you know, magical knowledge here. When is an appropriate time for us to start working on rebuilding the economy? And how do we do that? It's a complicated question, but what are your thoughts? Well, you know, it is a $10 million question, but basically the administration has no credibility here. They have zero credibility. And so what we're seeing is this new federalism that's come about. So when Governor Cuomo, along with the Northeastern states that he's allied with and Governor Newsom, along with the West Coast states, they forgot Hawaii. I think they'll remember us somewhere down the road. But when they say and what they outline as safe and reasonable, they don't want to starve their economies anymore than anybody else. It doesn't matter whether you live in a blue state or a red state. People want the economy to work. So it's just how do we get it to work safely? So I'm going to say what they're not being held hostage by a man who is intent on something. I get it. He wants to start the economy again. But we can't be subject to a non-reality based bringing back and stimulus to get this economy moving again. I'm going to look for what does, let's make it easy. What does Governor California say, along with Governor Inslee and the Governor of Oregon, and go by what they have to say? Because there's 50 million people right there and they're not going to jeopardize their citizens. I would hope, I mean, certainly. I'm less likely to jeopardize their citizens than Trump. Trump would jeopardize us all. Even knowing it's life and death, he would send many of us to our deaths, I think. But you know, we have this vaccine thing. And everybody says, oh, the vaccine will be here. It's like the train is coming down the track. And we figure, well, 18 months, it'll be here at the station in 18 months. That's not a certainty. We have candidates, but we don't have anything that actually we know it works, nor do we know that it's safe. And there's a lot of work to be done. And there's a lot of collaboration. We had a show last week involving collaboration on a drug, not a vaccine, but one of those drugs, therapeutic drugs, between an ethnic Chinese person here in Hawaii at their school of medicine and a buddy of his in Wuhan. So the collaboration is all over the world. I mean, the Germans are working on it, the French are working on it. I mean, there are scientists who are everywhere working on it, but we're not sure who's going to come up with it. My own view is it's probably going to be this kind of invented out the vaccine outside the country. Because I really wonder if we can collaborate well enough with this administration and without the funding. But, you know, my question to you is, isn't it clear that we can go out again? We can have our economy, not worry about it. Shake hands, whatever you need to do, only when we have a vaccine. And that for all the predictions we've heard is 18 months. Isn't that when it's safe when you don't have to worry about these things? And anytime until that time, you have to be careful and paranoid about little virus bugs everywhere in our world and on all the people you know. What do you think, Stephanie? When are you going to feel safe? I agree with you, Jay. I think once I can go get my shot, I'm going to be fine. And so is everybody else. But in the meantime, we have a year here during which I don't know who's thinking about this or not, but and maybe not the president. He thinks we're all going to, Macy's coming back. All these places are coming back. That's not going to happen. There's, we have got to adopt a new paradigm of our lives. Everything is going to be different, not just retail, but also that education has to be different. Everything after this, what's going to turn out to be six months to a year of this isolation and working through online is going to result in new ways of thinking about how the economy is going to work. And I think there's going to be some interesting breakthroughs. I think this could be a very creative, prosperous moment for us to bust through, to do things in a new way, really truly use the 21st century. Well, indeed, that's true. It's not only after the vaccine, it's now people are inventing innovative things all the time, and it may not restore the economy to what we hope. But at least it'll, it'll, it'll go in that direction and we'll be using technology like, like zoom, you know, like, like, like think tech and VMIX call like this right now. And there'll be more of that in, you know, in this period before comfort and in the period after we have the vaccine. But Cynthia, you know, my concern is that we have risks during this period. If it's a year, 18 months, you know, there are people who are really getting tired of staying home. There are people who have no money. There are people who, you know, don't have the benefits of this $2.3 trillion plan, which has flaws in it. Administrative bureaucratic flaws, we already see that. Not everybody is going to be happy. Some people are going to be at the brink of starvation. Some people are going to have a, you know, a psychiatric decompensation stuck at home. Some people will have, they will have domestic violence. Some people will go out in the street and do crime because they have no other choice. They're desperate. So what, what are the risks there to our society? What are the risks ultimately to rebuilding it the way we want in this period? Anywhere from a few months to a year to 18 months, whatever it is, what are the risks? Well, I think we could do a whole show on the risks. I mean, how many more minutes do we have left in the show here? Because the risks are that high. And then there's people like me who can't take vaccines. So I would be even more at risk depending on how things, and all of the people that are like me that can't take the, the vaccines without actually getting the virus. So there's a lot of things that need to be taken into account. And like you said, the domestic violence is just already off the charts. And you know, that's my wheelhouse. So I've been watching the numbers of domestic violence reports and it's, it's crazy how much higher it is now with people being stuck at home. Yeah. Well, you know, in that regard, you know, I think that we need to start thinking about all of the properties that are out here on a vacated. Okay, Alamoana Center, our huge shopping center here in Honolulu. There's nothing going on up there. It's all that space. Somebody's paying that freight every month. So what about using that? What places for people to go to take refuge? I mean, we need to open up what now are new resources. This is part of this paradigm shift that I can't, that I'm thinking has got to come about. And it's all going to come from us, the citizen, figuring out what do we do in these new circumstances and how are we going to benefit our world to get back to at least our prosperity. Again, it might not look the same, but it can look different and we can still be prosperous and get people fed and take care of. Well, you know, Winston, we have these two factors that are both sides of us. We're in a kind of dilemma. On the one hand, if we don't do it right, we'll get sick. More of us will get sick. More of us will die. It'll be 1919 all over again and worse. The other factor, the risks, the risk of domestic violence, of crime, you know, of a failed supply line for food. I mean, these are great risks. So we have both of these things working on us. And in the middle, we have Dr. Fauci. Dr. Fauci, the only rational person on the stage who sticks with it most, most of the time, I think he's been compromised on some occasions, but to tell us, what did he say? It's not time yet. Okay, and I would go with him, I think, as to when it is time. But don't you worry about Dr. Fauci. He's one of those guys who was on Trump's fire list. And soon enough, I think we're going to see him fired. So can we rely on him? Will he help us? Is there anyone else in the White House who will help us? How are we going to make this decision? The decision seems already corrupted. How are we going to decide this critical issue between these two, you know, chasms? What do you think? There's not going to be one opening date, honestly. It's going to be many. When you have New York right in the throes of this where you have so many people dying, whereas here in Hawaii, I just saw while our show was going on, it says we have 530 here as of today, which is April 15th on Civil Beat. And it says 70% of the cases documented by the Department of Health have been released from isolation. So more than half of the folks have recovered here. We may be looking at being able to go very quickly, co-free in Hawaii, which is interesting. But it means that, especially control of the population growing, that we may have a specific advantage for opening up tourists from earlier locations. Imagine that you get your COVID ID check, your stamp before you come over here from here. You're COVID free. You get to come on your vacation to Hawaii. You can charge twice as much for the beautiful beaches here. There's a lot of different scenarios that we might be looking at in ways that's going to restart the economy that we don't know. And we don't need to know all the answers right now, but we do need to do this in a way that is sane. Another thing that came in while we were talking is, it says Trump threatens, and the Hill, Trump threatens to adjourn both chambers of Congress. This just came out while we were talking. And he says, perhaps it's never been done before. Nobody is sure if it ever has been, but we're going to do it. You know, when you're dealing with someone who's just throw things out like this, it's so disconcerting to have a coherent, logical response to anything. But when you're faced with the pandemic, we have to rely on our own local government control as much as possible, combined where maybe the states are getting into packs together and opening up different regions at different times. That's appropriate to them. What Donald Trump is going to do probably is just say, oh, you can open up from May 1st, and if you open up sooner, we'll give you some more candy to do that. I don't know how he's going to walk that one back, but you know, some revelation will come out and it'll happen. It's terrifying. And something actually on Trump, which we predicted a year ago, that he would try to, you know, dissolve, just like Hitler did in 1933. With the Enabling Act of 1933, he completely, you know, essentially, he dissolved the Reichstag, both houses. They both voted for a bill that allowed him to make the legislation, which is where he's heading now. In the name of a national emergency and wait till we get to November. I mean, it's a great risk to this country that, you know, if there's a national emergency or arguably a national or what he thinks is a national emergency, we won't have our election after all this time. You know, sometimes I think there must be a place in the world that I could go to, to be safe, to be safe from the unraveling about democracy, which has gone on for at least three years, and to be safe from this pandemic. But you know what? I'm not sure there is a place in the whole world I could go to to be safe. Is it a time to travel now? Yeah, would you go and isn't it better to stay in Hawaii? That's also a complex question. Stephanie, what do you think? I am amazed that you articulate those fears so well. I think that I was thinking about a Dr. Fauci being out on the plank. He's walking the plank and he's saying what he's going to say, no matter because he's a scientist. I think all of us are walking the plank because we are unfortunate enough to be in this crisis with a leader that's not a leader and can't do the leadership that we need to have for this. So it is tremendously frightening and who knows, Hawaii may be a place to be, but we have a leadership issue here too. So at no time has that been a greater need is to have people in the positions of authority and policymakers to do the kinds of things that will lead us into a safe place because we're not there now. No, we're not. So we only have a minute left here. Cynthia, what are your closing words to our audience? What would you like to leave them today? Well, I think there's hope in the people. We can't have hope in our government right now, but I think we can put hope in people when we see people going to just extreme measures to help our first responders and our frontline. And so I think we need to support those people as much as possible, especially if we're going to end up with a second wave. Winston, you're always good at making me feel better. What are your closing words? What message you want to leave? You know, you mentioned about democracy. Where's the place to go? The place to go is always on think tech because this is where democracy, where we talk about all kinds of issues. This is the place to be. And Hawaii's a great place always to be at. We've got a low rate here. I do want to, you know, stress it. It's up to all of us to share a low hall with each other. Be kind to each other. Be kind to yourself. This too shall pass. We're going to go about it the best ways we can. We need as much information as we can. We need to be an open society with the best models. Apply those to different locations and see what works out. But we will get through this on the other side and we will be stronger and more resilient because of it. Yeah. Yeah. And I have a last word too. All that, all that is right on except one thing we got to have testing. We got to have testing. We can't deal with this without testing. And we don't, it's coming, right? It's coming. What are you been drinking? It's coming. It's coming. When we have been testing, we can all feel better. Okay, Stephanie, thank you very much. Cynthia, thank you very much. Winston, thank you very much. A great discussion. Thank you. Talk to you next time.