 Okay, very good morning. It's Thursday 12th of March and getting straight into the briefing And as you can see to the side of me this headline from Donald Trump Who gave a nationwide speech last night in order to reassure the public has somewhat backfired in terms of how Markets have received it. You probably saw it last night. The close on Wall Street was down heavy once again losses in the Dow kind of south of the 1400 point mark and The S&P has broken through some Significant areas of potential support now if I just have a quick look on the daily chart. I'm going to refer back to this Again in a moment, but you can see we were down around that 27 kind of 30 Level and that was a number that would be an eyed by a number of those banks, which we've talked about quite a few times in the briefing, but we managed to punch through there and you can almost see the The importance of that level because when we did break through it It dropped again substantially another hundred points or so to where we are Roughly at the moment where the actual candlestick low we have printed just around seven points above the 2600 handle It's bounced a little since then but obviously still down a hundred and ten already on the session Having Asia Pacific region followed suit from the sharply lower clothes on Wall Street Not going to go into the the downside targets just yet because I'm going to get Sam Alongside me and a little bit different here. We're going to have a chat side-by-side about what we think of Downside targets because I think we need to start being prudent now and thinking about longer-term levels Elsewhere then Gold a little bit unreceptive actually to a lot of this move. It's almost like People just had enough of that now after that big ramp up We had about a week and a half ago or so since that kind of bubble popped on that that big run above north of 1700 a little less appetite at the moment, but still seemingly as we've talked to or talked about is this idea that It's still probably going to remain an asset that will be supported in the period ahead The the kind of general feeling is markets are in a particularly fragile state at the moment and further downside at this point I think definitely cannot be discounted. So even if gold does come back down a little bit more from here I still think it remains largely elevated in the grander scheme of things in terms of UST notes It's almost like a small day now up 23 ticks at this time this morning. I mean in a normal Situation beyond this last period of three or four weeks I would say at the European Open a nine-tick move would be a big deal coming into the European morning Now in today's world 22 ticks up in the 10-year is pretty small compared to what we have seen on a couple of occasions More recently, but yeah, T notes up sharply You can see the bulk of the game coming in the overnight Asia Pacific session So post the Trump speech about the travel ban and the kind of sharply lower clothes Translating into a negative performance in the Asia Pacific region and we remain up and around close to the R1 at the moment on the daily pivots there and in WTI crude of course getting hit badly again on the back of what Trump has said Obviously travel bans gonna impede the airline sector dramatically once again You're talking about you know a huge population when you think about Europe as a whole in terms of travel And so oil taking another hit and this comes in the context of course with the lights of Saudi looking to flood the market at the moment So again listening to Sam I think prudent if we start thinking about work at this market go to on further downside movement Well, let me get you up to speed on the headlines first And then we'll go into that conversation on the the technical front and so if you did miss it yesterday There's a couple things to be aware of. Well, let's go in the sequence of events. So first of all You had the World Health Organization Director general this chap here who yesterday labeled coronavirus now a Pandemic now, I don't think that's the catalyst for why the markets of move like they have so far this morning I think this was all but inevitable and so the actual definition if you like from epidemic to pandemic I think is of little consequence, but certainly now this meaning that the virus is on a global scale outbreak And it's expected to be worldwide is what this effectively means However, this does then if you think about it from a political point of view governments if they had in any case been Hesitating they really don't have a choice now because the major body the who have said This is a pandemic and so governments would not be doing their job if they didn't really take now definitive action and so That then if we follow this through we go to Trump Trump then was going to give a national address in order to kind of ease any concerns that the broader public may have had in terms of the Administration being able to control this apparent Outbreak and further developments that are expected in the United States He came out with a surprise and that surprise being that he suspended all travel from Europe for 30 days Now, I'm not sure if he actually saw when he delivered that specific line, but he basically said We're gonna suspend all travel from Europe now think about what that means that means trade as well, right? Well, that's how the markets took it and that's why the move initially was quite quite strong It's because actually it was a bit of a misinterpretation I don't think he was particularly clear and actually what he did was Soon as he came off there. He probably got his advisors going Look at the market look what's happened So he quickly hit the hit his Twitter account and came back out and said Basically just so we're clear trade will in no way be affected by the 30-day restriction on travel from Europe So, you know, that would have been Pretty horrific outcome for markets if it was going to be a travel ban You would have you would have seen a move way far greater than what we've had so far But nonetheless the move unprecedented in itself Has had a big impact A Couple of other things on the Trump point before we move elsewhere and how other governments around the world are dealing with this First of all, if you think about about two weeks ago, Trump said that the eight and a half billion dollar Democratic proposal to tackle the virus was too high He was only asking for two and a half billion, but you remember then a week later That 8.3 billion got signed off So he was originally kind of saying actually, you know what this virus is a democratic creation It's nothing. It's not going to be anything That was only three weeks ago. He said that exact comment He then said we only need a small amount two and a half billion But then he settled on a number of around north of eight billion He's then called for a three-month suspension of payroll tax, which is going to cost at least 300 billion so he's gone from two and a half to three hundred billion In about two weeks and so not only that being a hundred times Larger than his initial Gambit if you like he now doesn't really have so far and I was You know what I was quite interested to see yesterday was actually in the UK budget a degree of Fairly detailed measures in order to help say small businesses Which are obviously going to suffer the most if they cannot facilitate trade and if people are put in these quarantine measures Where they can't freely go about their business? They're the ones that are going to suffer and so that's going to impact the economy But with Trump so far it's continuing to be quite light on the ground In that respect and markets are becoming increasingly frustrated and disappointed by this The most glaring omission from his plans so far has been any type of increase in America's capacity to test Infections now I did see quite an interesting statistic this morning in the US They've tested fewer than six thousand people from a population obviously north of three hundred and twenty million To put it into context the Netherlands with 17 million people is testing that many people every day So let me just let me just reiterate that so the Netherlands are testing six thousand people per day And they've got a population of 17 million Americans tested six thousand people so far And they got a population of three hundred and twenty seven million so Yeah, there's a lot of I guess apprehension then about how quickly how rapid those numbers in America Could quickly go to a thousand to ten thousand to twenty five thousand to fifty thousand and beyond And and this is what's being reflected somewhat in markets at the moment So yeah lack of detail from trump Kind of again, as we said before a lot of bark little on the bite on the detail And that's what's got to be forthcoming in order to alleviate these current market concerns What has this led to well elsewhere? Italy now Have taken the next step They're kind of much more further down the line in terms of this quarantine measures They've shut down shops restaurants now So all stores other than groceries and farmer pharmacies will be closed Just imagine the economic implications of that So anything other than groceries and farm pharmacies are now closed in Italy for the foreseeable future And yeah, I've got a couple of other notes here On wednesday the prime minister Conte announced he's increased the emergency stimulus package Worth up to 25 billion euros now to help struggling businesses and families So again these these these fiscal Interventions now are a necessity not a choice. It's just a matter of how big and how quickly they can deliver them in the uk Same thing Boris Johnson He is holding one of his emergency cobra meetings later on today So we're likely to get a press statement from number 10 downing street at some point where Boris Johnson Is expected to say that we've gone from the containment to the delay phase Of this outbreak now what's going to be the interesting point here Is do we now start again following the italian lead of which we saw there the first step being that school closures and restrictions on gathering among options So what is it the chelton and races that are going on at the moment school closures But then obviously knock on effects that I could have on parents ability to go to work And this generally then is the the first in a step of sequences, which you know ultimately leads to more people working from home Colleges and universities also shut down as well as schools But then does that then start to hit the the main kind of high street as well Like we're seeing at the moment in other european nations So yeah, everything is escalating at the moment and hence the reason why the market is moving like it is It's almost like a trigger point No, for sure was the travel ban coming out of of trump Which puts a lot of pressure on a number of key industries when you look at the specific stock sectors that have been getting hit In this current environment, particularly those airline firms as I said then oil in And gas and particularly oil on the travel ban getting hit hard And of course this does come in the backdrop of The opec blowout that we had at the end of last week. I mean, I'm just gonna Have a look at oil. Let's put it on a daily to have a look in a slightly more Longer context and while I do that I'll ask sam to come over as well So we can talk about some of these equity charts But um, let me just remove my camera so you can see Some of my screens a little bit more clearly See if that works. There you go. So you'll still be able to hear me Um, so this is oil and you know, it's been a phenomenal move that we've had Um, obviously since last friday I mean just having a quick look on a percentage basis from where we were Roughly trading around a 45 to where we are at the moment. We're still down about 40 percent on that low To where we are at the moment. Obviously we bounced a little bit up to the kind of 30 Uh, 31 level. So we're still down about 32 33 percent at current price But uh, for sure that lower bound level of 26 would be the big target That's that 26 2016 fair blow when we had the big crash Initiated really from november 2014. When was the last time? Um, well, let me just put in the lips here so I can give you the narrative So here was when opec took the unprecedented decision to oversupply the market in order to Put pressure on the us shale industry And to squeeze them out to maintain their monopoly obviously and control of the price of oil but then that in addition to Uh, the supply glut with the slowdown in china and fears of a hard landing saw that ultimate low down at the 26 Handle which we saw a double kind of test in jan febber 16 before the eventual more aggressive opec action to drastically cut supply kicked in um, but here we're right there again and And yeah, I'm I'm pretty confident at some point We're going to see a test at that level and that then gets really interesting And then I think if we start to go down towards 20 bucks These these countries are going to have to get together because as much as they can play this kind of uh, this Game at the moment of trying to challenge them and this is what some believe the saudi strategy is is to force prices down to those levels So it brings the likes of the us and uh, and russia back to the table and that really there's there's no way that they can sustain prices that low They've all got to take coordinated action All right. Well, look, let me get sam over and while he's here with me I'm gonna make this chart on the s&p big and I just wanted to have a quick chat with him While i'm here about this chart. This is the s&p and perhaps we can look at the dow I understand a thousand um In bear market territory But start with the s&p because obviously sam can add a bit of a technical talk And I come to this with when he first came in the office earlier First question is right sam if you had to pick some levels of where you would want to get long And this doesn't necessarily mean to be permanently long But areas of opportunity that could come on further moves to the downside. What would those areas be? Yeah, well, you can see Let's get the 200 day moving average just how far away we are from that now. I think that the trend line Uh, that you got on here with your technical analysis skills. I think it's it's bang on It's got to have that so that's 25 26. It's the low that we had in 2018 and I mean you be a brave person to think we smashed straight through that. I think There's definitely a case for a balance um, technical Profit taking longer-term buyers coming in around there. Do I think that's going to be the bottom? No, but I think there'll be a good case for for price to to bounce Quite drastically higher from there But also, you know, if we have a look at that when I said 2018 low, I meant the The one from the beginning of jan the december one I think is then that next sort of obvious place where Price could you know longer term be sort of some sort of bottom For for us to go higher. I think those are the two two key levels. I think both of them are inevitable But I think we bounce from 25 26 fast So let me ask you this then so if anyone who's let's say new to trading and they were looking at this So how do you approach this do you do you look to get Along at those points and if so, how do you manage that trade? What's your target kind of strategy or do you look to To trade the break then of 25 26 on to the moves lower or both? Yeah, I mean the way I mean this market's headline driven at the moment and people were talking about before trump was talking at midnight You know, it's going to be an opportunity for equities to go up and If you're positioned for that you're you're licking your wings this morning So it could well be that we come down to 25 26 and there's you know, some massive new development Which means actually there is no bounce and it goes straight through. So I think it's a way to see on these levels I think if you know, I always like reminding us back to to the 120 level in pound last year It's you know, yes, you're likely to get some sort of initial reaction around there But also, you know, wait to see what happens. Let the market tell you what's going on. The daily close is also You know, not a bad indication Or, you know, the way these markets are moving the hourly close because of course It could well be that we hit that rebounce and next thing, you know, we're 50 100 points higher So it'll be a wait and see price action will be will be king around these levels I would imagine But yeah, we're, you know, it's what we now 26 26. So another 100 points lower Obviously, I mean that's unlikely to happen today As you know, we've got limit down not far below here and that will cause price action till 130 And who knows what happens after that? But what about the the Dow? Well, the Dow is, you know Stupidly I said to you and You and Alex if he gets to 21,000 I'll work the rest of the year for free Oh, yeah, I remember that. Yeah, yeah, so let's let's put a little hang about hang about I had my fingers crossed which I didn't I shouldn't say at the time that you told me Look, that's it That's that's the marker right there. I'm gonna leave this on I'm gonna have to head right there a little bullseye right there So Sam Norris can do all my laundry. You can make my sandwiches every day You can fetch me my donut and coffee every day. This is the Sam This is the level right here that I'm concerned about right there. Yeah, but I'm gonna hedge this with uh, with a short One word about unfortunately Um, just above that 450 points, which the Dow can do in In five minutes on a Friday afternoon Is probably the key one the one that we're going to be drawn towards and you can see Obviously you've got limit down again Not too far away from where we're training that can pull swings today But yeah, the the December lows the boxing day lows I think we'll come into play We almost need to take them out I would say and actually I think a good way to trade this if you're looking for that Longer term opportunity is for us to break through to then come back above To then find support on there to then go higher That's the only way really I'm going to look for some concrete Opportunities to get long like we had with those trend channels when we came back above Then they found support and went so that's how I've been looking for that. I think 21 and a half thousand is is is going to come um But uh, you know much more than that 2016 levels I don't think so, but uh, you know, it's uh, it's not a pretty picture this morning You know in you know this side of the pond or or the other Okay, well look while while I've got you here because I still need to talk about the ecb But before we do that because perhaps let's just look at the oil chart And then perhaps what I can talk about the ecb and you can talk about the euro from the technical basis, so oil yeah, I mean urus has had a a bit of a Push lower there, but ecb day oil. Um You know what it was It's a tricky one because when I look at oil From what it did on the initial bounce from almost that 26 level from 2016 I can't get that close and not test it Um, what do I think would come first? I know if a couple people messaged me this do I think the gap field or 26? I think 26 Um, we obviously got that push lower yesterday on the the europe ban from from the u.s So technically again, it's let's you know if i'm looking at that 26 level that we've got on see on that weekly chart Let's bring that into picture again, it's I mean is that the buying opportunity of you know the next Few years and so there's a couple ways to play it and again thinking of the sort of the 120 level I think we probably get a little bit popped below there and then we can come back up We probably then get another Test of that area daily closes key and and that could actually then lead to to price going and that's kind of how I would look to play it. Do you think we I mean can we go? Well, because well one of the problems is I mean if we did go below and we sustain that price for more than I don't know week or two There's so many small Like independent u.s oil firms, which are going to go out of business. Yeah, and so I think at that point then um action does need to happen in regards to America and russia as well, don't forget the russian breakeven is more like the fourth low 40s So we're talking about a 20 dollar price. That's half what they need So not only are the Saudis I think the Saudis, you know, perhaps as crazy as it seems the Saudis are what they suggested at the weekend Which caused oil to drop spectacularly the open this week Perhaps that is a a solid plan. You just literally you you you want it to break 26 As self inflicting as that might seem because the problem is here is all the other oil OPEC nations are following suit as well and they're ramping up because that's that's how OPEC works up other than say Iran When Saudi says jump everyone else says well, how high and then they follow And so it's not just about Saudi going from 9 to 10 to 11. Everyone else is going up. So you are literally flooding the market Uh, but yeah, prices get to 20 I mean trump. What's trump gonna do then when you know, he might not have a job by then Well, I mean in the immediate term, you know, these oil firms start popping because the fact that they're loaded with debt And they just can't pay it anymore And that's going to be problematic. So Yeah, I think you're right. I think We could get a break But if we do, I think it's going to be fairly short lived and I think down at 20 I think even if you're looking at a less um A risky kind of trade you're not looking to trade like a derivative Then you've got to be thinking that some of these more matured solid oil companies of a greater size with bigger available cash flow For example are going to survive this storm You know, you kind of your exons your chevrons your tow towels and so on So, yeah, I mean that if your oil trades down at 20 these companies are going to be here, you know for for the future And so even though the small ones won't make it the big ones will And then, you know, do you just load up with some cash stocks for the the long term and then You know, let's say oil goes back as it inevitably will up into the 50 60 type area while you've got in at down at 20 when oil was trading at that level So, you know, that could be another way of playing it. But um, well, let's have a quick look at the euro Well, before I look at the euro, let me just quickly talk about the ECB momentarily So I'll talk about it from a fundamental perspective. I'm not going to spend too much time on this though at all Why because Sam and I are going to cover this live on youtube We'll go live at about half past 12 just before the event. We'll cover that and the press conference in full But long story short We're in for a quite an exciting one because obviously we've had the bank of England emergency cut yesterday Follows the the first to go really the fed with that 50 basis point move The rba the boc They've all fired so far and now really the pressure's on Christine Lagarde because she's not really had too much to do yet But this is going to be really telling and and yeah interesting conversation with alex this morning And it was in regard to just does Christine unleashed the the draggy and draggy was um Notorious but over delivering you remember there's so many occasions where you thought okay The ECB are going to do a cut and so on and then he literally whips out his bazooka and Fires a missile not not his gun and you know a whole variety of measures over and above what markets were expecting now could that be one of the The downfalls of today because if that's what markets are used to All be it Christine is someone else and we should look at her with fresh eyes Markets are used to the ECB acting in quite a strong way to these types of episodes of market volatility So key things to look out for and as I said, I'm going to go into this in way more detail later So do tune in for that A cut to the deposit rate That is very much expected and priced in by the market So I think that's going to happen So a 10 basis point cut and deposit rate to take it to minus 0.6 The other things that you can expect though the variety of other more targeted liquidity types of measures Remember what we've said here when it comes to monetary policy It's pretty much exhausted and limited in what type of impact it can have in this situation The people that are going to suffer right now in this type of uh corona and virus Lockdown are companies consume the confidence and small companies And so that's what's going to damage an economy. So really it's the fiscal measures, which are really key So expect Christine the guard and ECB to really be pushing governments to supplement any monetary measures with real fiscal action in a more targeted way Expansion of targeted long-term refinancing operations or teltrose That's probably a good way in order to keep the market liquid In this sense, um, would they expand their quantitative easing program? So obviously they could I mean they've currently by 20 billion I think city were calling for actually three times more than that But city are an outlier most people are looking at the rules around their quantitative easing Buying parameters. So could they buy more corporate bonds? Now think about it If I just said that what's going to damage the economy is pressure for small medium-sized businesses Well, why not act directly by buying more corporate corporate bonds? Could that be a way to prop things up? And also they have this thing called issuer limits Which restricts their ECB buying a certain percentage of a certain country's bonds Could they temporarily kind of put that aside in order to just deal with the the current situation? So there's a variety of different things here, but really it's more about fiscal and credit measures Not just Monetary I think in terms of away from this event in what's really going to help this market to stabilize and perhaps recover So yeah, this is why we need to keep an eye. It's not just about today in the ECB Which of course is very important It's about how do Germany act how do Spain and France and these other countries act in a coordinated fashion And to what size and scope which is going to be ultimately quite important But let's have a look at the euro and then I'll hand you over to sam now for the rest of the the session Don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel. We're going to be live half past 12. Thanks guys Awesome Yeah, cheers and uh, well, let's bring on the The euro to to have a quick look at It's actually just testing some of the lows down Of yesterday and this is a big level To to have a look at here. I know the dollar index is keeping high on that because it's a pretty key point as well But it's just have a look here longer term daily chart That's the fib 382 up at the top there and we're now back below some of these resist What previous resistance levels from august last year in the beginning of 2020 so It's getting pretty heavy. I mean if you look at the last few days price action 60 minute now drifting lower We're expecting a double gcb. That's you know, it's kind of to be expected The whole carry trade idea is perhaps over 115 the top maybe Levels to be aware of just below where we're trading. Obviously. Here's a great great floor If we can get below there, I'll be sort of looking at Let's just mark that up there 1221 I don't see much stopping it to to get through there if we break this level now And then really back down to the 111 50 and 111 handles I think that would probably cap the the price action To the downside if we were to hold these levels and for whatever reason We do push higher. What a trend line. What a trend line from from yesterday morning. So well respected there So a break of that and you know next thing, you know We're looking at the the high around 114 and and then above that then it's the fib 0.382 and and this level around here as well So you are about some critical levels. That's really how I would go into today It's just having it marked up and you know trade what you see not really going in with a bias or not And then going from there, but the trend line for me is is a key Key Point to have on as long as we're below there, you know the short I think we'll we'll rule quick look elsewhere on other Markets the pound been battered hasn't it absolutely bad poor thing. It's come down from 132 to 127 However, just put the pivots on here as well You can see just the dollar's getting a bit of strength back, you know across the board But this is a big level here. This is you know down at the the lows of the 28th And if you put this on the daily chart as well, you can see we're now back down to that range We thought we had got away from here as well. I guess you know the the question is Does you know does the dollar now have to become this big safe haven over the next sort of few weeks and and these markets Are only going one direction I mean Yeah, I guess in to one extent. I mean the It's now fully priced in the Fed are going to go to zero Yeah, so the dollar has now done it has done its thing. It's priced that in and so I think then with the pound You know our economy is already under pressure even before this entire episode because of brexit And the material impact that that had already put our economy in a weakened state on course for potential recession Now you throw in the potential now for a complete shutdown of the united kingdom in time perhaps in the coming weeks Then yeah, I think I think we go lower. I think we break that level Which is massive we go down. Yeah, and that means just look how big this level is support support Okay, a bit messy Then resistance on the way up and I mean below 127 you got 126 that high in what september Yeah Around here and and then it could get you know more ugly So certainly interesting looking at and and it the same across the board for the dollar pairs obviously other than Other than the yen quick look at gold because I know a lot of people are interested in this market. It's starting to get maybe a bit of bid But it's it's got that margin call safer safe haven feel again here 1700 was the Was the top which is obviously a place where people would take profit as well It's it's been a magnet. We hit it fine. It's take profit. We drift down I think for opportunity wise clearer opportunity wise there's better markets out there But if we were to see another gold dump, that's your level below here 1631 And then I would say you get down to 1612 pretty quick. I know it's only 20 bucks for gold But I think that would it would happen there and then you know, we sort of have marked up a couple resistance levels previously You know 86 72 maybe intraday you're looking at 55 again But I think cleaner moves will will happen Elsewhere here going forward Any questions as usual guys get this let us know we're we're live 12 30 on on youtube And as I hope to see you see you all there Cool. Thanks guys