 Welcome everyone to an international relations capsule for the Shankar Payes Academy. Today, we'll deal with the war drums being heard in Ukraine. In fact, if there are two hot spots in the world today, which are likely to develop into a conflict are both in Eurasia. One end is Taiwan and the other end is Ukraine. In Taiwan it is the Chinese who are likely to go to war and in Ukraine is likely to be the Russians. So all others seem to be out of this and these are a limited interest of these countries but the whole world is involved in one way or the other. In fact, some people may say that this war in Ukraine has been going on for some time. It is not just war drums or war clouds but actual war in that sense because since February 2014 when Crimea was taken away from Ukraine by Russia, there has been this tension and also often on some conflicts. So some people see it as a continuing Russo-Ukrainian war going on since February 2014 but that was a separate incident and some years have passed. Very many things have happened and now again the one can see the signs of conflict and marching but nobody thinks that there will be a war immediately even though the President of Ukraine keeps saying that today there is a threat, tomorrow there will be a war. So he is very particular concerned that this might happen because he knows the Russians he claims. But let us get back to history for a while to remember how this has all come about. As you all know, Ukraine was one of the Soviet Socialist Republics, one of the big ones and one of the closest ones to Moscow because the language is the same. I have been to Ukraine and there is no real difference between Russia and Ukraine culturally or linguistically. And so they were very close and also historically Ukraine became a member of the United Nations in 1945 itself. Even though it was part of the Soviet Union as a part of a deal to give the East Europeans some numbers in the UN, otherwise they would be totally outnumbered. Two republics of the Soviet Union were also inducted as members of the United Nations that is Ukraine and Baylor Russia. So USSR could count on three votes for themselves whenever something happened in the United Nations. And that was generally accepted even though both these delegations of Ukraine and Baylor Russia worked like the delegations of Soviet Union. I dealt with them and they didn't have a policy anything different from the Soviet policy. So it was a convenient arrangement for the Soviet Union to have some extra support within the UN General Assembly. And then when the Soviet Union broke up, fortunately Soviet Union broke up rather peacefully unlike in Yugoslavia where there were several conflicts and even wars. And Moscow, Russia having inherited the Soviet Union's policies and assets and also the permanent seat on the Security Council, so they were very responsible In fact, you may know that the UN Charter still speaks about the Union of the Soviet Social Public as the permanent member. There is no such country. But the Charter has not been amended because nobody wanted to have a debate about it because all the 15 publics could have claimed to inherit the Soviet heritage. But it was all quietly done because the world was aware of the reality and there was no point in wasting time by having these disputes. And so quietly one day Soviet Union's flag was dropped down and Russian flag went up in the UN. And Russian Federation was kept as the name of the permanent member of the Security Council. But someone who reads the text of the UN Charter will wonder what has happened this particular permanent member who doesn't exist in the world. So in other words what I'm trying to say is that it was a cordial kind of relationship and it had continued for quite some time. There was a council of foreign and defense policies of which Russia was a member and all the other republics. And quite a friendly and cooperative relationship with Russia. But somehow they always remembered that one part of Ukraine that was Crimea was in fact given away to Ukraine in 1954 by Khrushchev. And when Ukraine became independent and began nursing hopes about being close to the European Union, Russia started worrying about it because Ukraine is a big country and with the Crimea attached to it, it had a rather significant position in Europe and the European Union. And this Russia considered to be some kind of a threat because first Europe in Union and then it could be NATO. And that is something that Russia could not accept that a country like Ukraine would be in the European Union that is bad enough trade-wise and economically. But if it also graduates to become a NATO member, and that will be a matter of concern for Russia. Because unlike the Eastern Bloc, the Western Bloc NATO was not demolished. NATO continues to be an alliance, active alliance, intervening sometimes in various areas other than anti-communist or anti-Soviet activities. And so NATO has emerged as a continuing military alliance in Europe. And that is causing some concern to Russia because they had formed up their empire. And here was a threat from the other empire and therefore there was some restlessness. And eventually when the European Union was considering membership and Ukraine was thinking in terms of getting closer to the European Union, in February 2014 Russia made a demand for returning Crimea to Russia because it was originally given by the Soviet Union to Crimea, sorry, to Ukraine. So there was a referendum held which most countries in the world did not recognize and Crimea became a part of Russia, which was separated away from Ukraine. And there was a lot of criticism. There were economic sanctions against Russia. Russia was considered an occupying power. And it was felt that even by the time it was 2019, almost 7% of Ukrainian territory was under Russian occupation. So since it was only transferred in 1954, historically perhaps there was some justification of the reintegration of Crimea with Russia. So Ukraine abandoned this. It's a nuclear arsenal. Ukraine as part of the Soviet Union had housed a number of nuclear reactors and other activities. And when they became independent, the question arose as to what will happen to the nuclear assets of Ukraine. But Ukraine, without any hesitation, surrendered the nuclear arsenal to Russia. Otherwise that would have been a point of contention, which was not there. And then the Charter of European Security with the inherent right of every participating state to choose security arrangements was also there. There was a Charter of European Security. So all these prepared the ground for Ukraine to be comfortable with European Union and also have more linkages. Then in September 2013, there was a free trade agreement with European Union and that strengthened Ukrainian position. And Russian forces, whichever they are in Ukraine at any point, they are already drawn. So the problems started recently when Ukraine requested to speed up its membership of NATO. That I think was the provocation. And one started hearing about building up Russian military build up in their own territory, but rather aggressively on the borders. But strengthening your own forces in your own territory is not wrong, whatever may be your perception about the country and therefore it is fairly justifiable. And when the problem arose, the United States started looking at the situation and there was some indication from President Biden that there would be some commitment to the sovereignty of Ukraine. So this further exasperated the situation because Vladimir Putin, who became emerged as a strong man of Russia, had his eyes on keeping Ukraine under control and he was not going to accept some kind of an arrangement by which Ukraine broke away, as it were, from the Eastern arrangements. And so therefore, there is this tension growing actually on the border. And the President of Ukraine, Mr. Zelensky, has been talking about his concern. At one point, the Ukraine President said that he did not accuse Russia, but he said that Russian representatives are planning to overthrow the Ukrainian government as soon as next week, he said. And he was accusing a leading businessman, having been involved in it. And he of course denied any involvement. And then the President said that he may not know himself that he's a part of this and this is some kind of a coup which is being planned by the Russians in Ukraine. So this businessman was named and he's one of the richest men. He was dragged into the plan and of course he himself denied it. And Moscow said that Russia has no such plans to get involved in Ukraine and Moscow simply dismissed it as alarmist about the buildup. But the NATO Secretary General, who has an eye on Ukraine's membership of NATO, warned, we have a warning to Russia that any kind of use of force will be at great cost. And Mr. Zelensky, the Ukraine President said that there's a very dangerous rhetoric, he called it. So generally there is an impression among the Ukrainians that something is afoot. Even though repeated assurance have been given by the Russians that they have no such intention, the number of Russian troops amassed on the border is what is causing concern. Because there is a large part of the Russian forces in Crimea, which is now part of Russia, which Russia announced, took away from Ukraine in March, 2014. So the troops also massing near the eastern region of Ukraine. And there is some background with some conflicts which have taken place between Russia and some of the regions in the eastern part of Ukraine. So the suggest man, his name is Rina Takhmatov, a businessman, and he was outraged by the charge made against him. And he accused Ukrainians, the Russians, for having created all this. But the seriousness of the troops which virtually surround Ukraine is something of concern to everybody. And what exactly they are planning is not known. But one thing is certain, the Russians have said it very clearly, that the moment, this is what they said, the moment Ukraine joins NATO, there will be trouble. And that warning they have given, large scale. So there is really no window of diplomacy after that. And that is why people are engaged in diplomatic activity. President Biden said the other day that he would perhaps speak to both the Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky to see that no conflictation takes place, no war breaks out. Biden had some involvement in Ukraine and President Trump tried to use his son's name to involve Biden in Ukrainian politics and business. Of course, that failed because Biden won the elections, but that was a trump card that President Trump had tried to use during the elections. So any invasion has been ruled out by the Russians. The US intelligence assessment that there is a threat by the Russian soldiers on Ukraine. So last April, Russia sent some troops even closer to Ukrainian border. And it was after that that there was this meeting between Putin and Biden. And that was partly an effort to diffuse the crisis in Ukraine. And they had a good meeting in Geneva. And therefore, there was some sense of security and peace after the Geneva summit. But there are always people who create problems. Russia has some Turkish drones flying in the Ukrainian airspace and around 90,000 troops. Russian troops are on the borders of Ukraine for a small country like that. The Putin is not likely to escalate tensions because he knows that he involves the United States in the conflict. And so he is willing to talk to the Americans or to the Ukrainians. And he feels that he can have a deal with Biden on this issue after the Geneva meeting. The Ukrainian Prime Minister has been saying that in the context of the Russian amassing of troops, NATO should send warships to the Black Sea to observe what the Russian planes are doing in the region. But Ukraine is also willing to have some kind of peace deals. And Biden spoke to the Ukrainian President sometime earlier, pledging unwavering support into Ukraine's sovereignty. And Russia's claim is only that it is free to move its troops to any part of its territory and it should not be a cause for concern. So this is the general situation. And the US have said that all options are open. That is the latest statement from the United States that all options are open in order to prevent any kind of conflict between Ukraine and Russia. But they are very clear that if NATO expands to the east, Russia will have to change the system and draw new red lines. And that is the last warning that Russia has given. So what do we read out of all this? And what is it that as students of international relations, you need to remember? Because you need to remember the history of relationship between Soviet Union and Ukraine. And also the tendency of the division of already breaking up of the Soviet Union was fairly peaceful. And therefore, there should be no reason for any kind of provocation unless there is a provocation. So here the provocation is EU and NATO. And EU and NATO are of course very keen to get Ukraine into the embrace and which is very natural because that will give them some advantage against Russia in containing Russia in Europe. Because Europe, Russia is really growing after the European Union lost the UK. Russia has become a significant power in Europe. So like in the case of Taiwan where also there are war clouds, there will be a fight made by the United States in Taiwan as well as in Ukraine not to provoke a war. And so far President Biden has not talked or planned wars in any part of the world. Because in a sense President Trump also did not. But he made so many noises all the time that we did not know whether he was making war or peace. So he did not send any troops and in fact we decided to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. And that's why he was claiming the Nobel Prize for peace because he didn't send any troops anywhere. He did not cause any war. Of course he killed an Iranian general in Iraq as probably one act of war he provoked. He could have broken into a war if the Iranians were not cautious and careful. So except for that he has a good record President Trump had and President Biden of course even a better record in trying to resolve differences without breaking them into conflict. But that is a message that he gave to President Xi when they had their virtual meeting. So perhaps all of us can sleep peacefully without thinking that there will be a war breaking out. This is not very far from India as you know and also no war breaking out in Taiwan. But we should be aware of the seriousness of the situation. And since 2014 the relationship between Ukraine and Russia have not been very pleasant. And therefore it is possible and every sign is there that both the sides are getting ready for a conflict or a peace deal on the basis of fear. Because very often war clouds come and war drums are beaten. Not really to fight a war but to create a solution or a peace which is favorable to them. So to create that strong position when you negotiate with your rivals you create this kind of situation Pakistan does it all the time. China does it all the time. We don't know whether it is peace or war with China. They are still there. They are not here. But nobody talks about it as a war. So there are so many ways in which you can flex your muscles. Particularly because the geopolitical situation is in a flux. Because though the United States is still the leading power in the world, the richest country and the strongest army etc. China also makes claims that in a few years at least they will catch up with the United States. Russia has also ambitions both Russia and China are building up their nuclear arsenals we know. And so everybody is keeping their powder dry. And so it is in that context that we have to observe the situation in the so-called Russo-Ukrainian war. There is no war but the war we started in 2014 has not really been resolved and provocation continues. And like in the case of China, Taiwan, United States is committed to protecting the sovereignty of Ukraine. So there are elements in the situation which can prove dangerous. And the President of Ukraine is speaking of a war or a conflict or a coup by 1st of December which is just two days from now. And that's why I don't have any attention to this particular situation. Thank you very much. Yeah, that is related to it but not directly. There Belarus is supposed to be pushing refugees into Poland to provoke them. And some people say this is being done by Ukraine in order to counter Russia. So all these are going on. But that is not related to this particular issue of Ukraine's worry about Russian build-up. All right, thank you very much.