 All right, everybody welcome to not financial advice live, and I am joined as ever guy from coin Bureau Hello guy. How is it over there in UAB? I bet it's hot as hell It is it is hot. Yeah, it's it's about a thousand degrees. So yeah A bit mild today, but yeah, pretty well. We'll take it and then Ben fresh fresh off from Basically training is here from you know the cryptover is Ben. Welcome. Hey, thanks for having me Yeah, so of course everybody there is links in the description You can I know you're already subscribed to Ben's and and and guys channel but also guys got a great coin Bureau clips and also got I need to put in there a coin Bureau trading on Their next time actually I'm gonna do that today. I won't mess it up So anyway, Jens we got three questions today. I want to see how this this works out for the format I want to keep it kind of kind of light the first one where I'm gonna talk just the question is this Why do you guys hate altcoin so much and why can't you just get into them and actually buy them like I do also? I just want to go against in my narrative, which is the four-year cycles I want to just give me your best case for why they could be invalidated and what to look out for because I don't want to be caught short Like how we got caught short last time when we thought that Bitcoin was going or I thought Bitcoin is going 150k or 100k And the theorem is gonna go to 10k and lastly we'll talk about drone power to pause and pivot and then guys We're only gonna do three questions today. So we're gonna, you know, keep it light So I'd like to get a little bit more for the question. So everybody out there in in stream world if you're here Thanks for stopping by and put your questions in right now and I'll go through those as we go by so First question guy, you're my upper left-hand corner. So I'll start with you. Why do you hate altcoin so much? Why can't you get on board with me and and buy these alts that I keep talking about so feverishly? So what do you got guy? You want to me to be your your exit liquidity? Yes bank holder, please Fair enough so long as I know Rob so long as I know Why I don't I don't hate alts. I just I just don't I couldn't eat a whole one at the moment I think for for me the main reasons why I'm just not looking at them at the moment is It's something I bang on about all the time, which is Bitcoin dominance. I know I know I say it every week But I'll say it again. Yeah, big Bitcoin dominance. It's still it's still rising and for me, that's you know, that suggests to me that Well, I think that's gonna continue for some time. That's obviously bad for alts I also think this is something that Ben has mentioned before this this idea of a kind of marginal buy You know, this there's the absence of retail that there aren't new buyers entering the market who are I'm gonna be looking to pick up alts. I don't again. That's something I don't see happening any time soon So I think and I think that ties into sort of general market sentiment as well Which which seems pretty damn low at the moment Obviously, we're seeing kind of these occasional pumps in in sort of meme coins and you know, various other sort of Little niches of the crypto verse which kind of gets everyone excited again, but true Yeah, we're still in this we're still in this difficult phase where Bitcoin is the safe haven I don't see I don't see new people coming in to buy alts. Certainly not yet so when When will that change? I think I think obviously something to look out for is gonna be a Sustained pump in the price of BTC and ETH because I think that will That will signal a pump in alts down the line But I'm you know, if we're gonna if if it's gonna pan out how it has in the past Then we've got to see that initial pump in those two in those in those two main ones before we can start Entertaining any ideas of alt season or anything like that So if we start to see sustained positive price action for BTC and ETH I could be That's when I would be tempted to to start coming back in I need to I need to see signs of sentiment improving Other things as well. I guess Signs of maybe DeFi activity improving DeFi TVL Rising obviously as people have probably noticed DeFi isn't having the best time of it at the moment so Yeah So, yeah for all of those reasons. I'm kind of happy. I'm happy where I am on the sidelines Just keeping my powder dry I can I can see what you mean TVL looks like it's not doing so great And then of course we just had that issue with curve. I don't know if everybody's updated with that, but it looks like curve at some kind of There was a hack and looks like there was some money lost and there was some money regain And I don't know exactly what's happening right now Then there's that and then Also, there was a big story about uniswap which is you know decentralized and they took out hex although there's a big difference between What the user interface can do and how you interact with a smart contract now me personally? I'm just gonna be honest with you to for me to get outside that user interface I'm kind of lost and to interact with the smart contract I know you it can be done if you want to do those things that's up to you But that's what we have as far as that part So alright guy it makes a lot of sense to me for why you don't want to jump on board my train So let's go on let's go on with with Ben the ultimate bull Then what do you got for Alts? I Guess yeah, I don't want to buy your bags. I think it's the right answer Yeah, I mean I think I think I would echo Guys viewpoint on on a lot of that stuff dominant should go higher Social risk is still in a downtrend Lower highs and lower lows still suggesting that that retail is capitulating And you know, I I still look at a lot of this stuff I mean you look at total three, you know Just another rejection off the 20-week estimate if you look at the 50-week us the 50-week moving average for total Three just another rejection there And again, I mean like it all goes back to this idea that liquidity is flowing out of the altcoin market In general, you know I also sometimes look at like the NFT space and I'll look at you know The offers and the floor and stuff and there's just like so little liquidity like it's very very low And I I would wonder if you know, how would the NFT market reacts if? If a theory I'm started to drop in price like could there be a race to the exits in a in a scenario where there's really low liquidity and Yeah, so I think that I think that Bitcoin in terms of crypto is still the relative safe haven That doesn't mean that Bitcoin can't go down, you know The thesis of dominance higher is is sort of like half of the half of the move by dominance higher is while Bitcoin goes up and then the other half is normally while Bitcoin goes down and When Bitcoin goes down and the dominance goes up, which is probably the most brutal part of the market cycle It's it's a very difficult phase of the market cycle that when it when it happens, I think it catches a lot of people off guard But I don't think we've really hit that phase yet. I think we're getting relatively close My my guess is that all coins Altcoin accumulation could start sometime late this year going into early next year before the halving But I still I would still argue it's a bit too soon Just based on a lot of seasonal factors, right? And I've talked a little bit about this as well, you know the the stock market the NASDAQ It tends to have a correction around Q3 of the pre-election year This normally normally causes Bitcoin to get a weekly close below the 20 week estimate And actually last cycle it was right around that time Once Bitcoin started getting like a couple of weekly closes below the 20 week moving average in Q3 of the pre halving year That's when that's when some altcoins finally bottomed out against Bitcoin So it might not even be that far away But even when that happened they still went lower on their USD pairs for a while And again, some altcoins never stopped going down against Bitcoin, right? You like take a look at some of the relics from a prior cycle, right? Like take a look at like Dash right it just keeps putting in lower highs and lower lows ever since 2017 Mineros another example light coin another great example And I think the other reason to Rob at the last the last I'll say is that normally Going into into Q3 so sometime between Q3 and Q1 of the halving year We tend to see Bitcoin give us that sort of that secondary scare to kind of scare people out before Before the move after that the halving normally occurs and it's normally in that move that you want to buy that you want to buy all coins right like like imagine in 2018 imagine if you had gone into 2018 and Just did not buy a single altcoin and you did not buy a single altcoin in 2019 either And then you just loaded your bags in early 2020 when Bitcoin got its it's sort of secondary scare before the real bull market began You would have you would have been fine, right? You don't need to you don't need to trade every every single rally by the altcoin market to do well You just need one bull market to change your life. So I think that the time. I mean, I think the time is coming Probably within the next Like six to eight months for all coins, but I still think it's somewhat premature Gotcha. I think I think you touched on this I want to say it was that video I just showed real quick the NASDAQ seasonality where you talked about the Right before presidential elections and pre-having years looks something like this So I'll link that in the description you guys can check it out but I can see your points and Hopefully at some point we do get a little bit more of that thing that we talk about What's it called Bitcoin dominance goes up and you can see maybe the altcoin season will be here at some point And we go from there. All right. Let's move on to the next one This is something that concerns me and keeps me up at night, which is I still believe that there is a four-year cycle I still believe that I mean regardless we're gonna have a we're going to have a having whether there is World War three or Everything goes out fine. It's going to happen sometime around April 2024 So if we have the having every single time so far, we've had an all-time high the next year They monstrous correction the year after that and then kind of like what I call like the reset year And then we go again So give me the best argument for why the four-year cycles are not gonna work this time And then Ben I'll start with you since we were just talking Um, I mean, I think so far. They're still intact. I don't I don't really think there's any clear evidence They've been broken yet. Well, I what I find interesting Rob and I mean I'll provide that example just as a as a counterpoint But what I find interesting is there's a lot of people that believe in the four-year cycle But they they refuse to believe the secondary scare that normally happens before the real bull market begins, right again It happened the last two cycles they sort of overlook this point, you know, they say well That's not going to happen this time. It's just going to it's just going to only go up from here And ignore that part of it and and they say it's going to do that because we have an inverted yield curve this time We had the same thing in 2019. I mean look, I still think I mean at this point I would say that Bitcoin is operating how it normally does from a seasonal perspective It's half up and half down in the pre-having year. I think we've gone half up I think we go half down for the rest of the year Doesn't mean there's not going to be any green months. We might have one or two, but That's my current view on the market I mean if if you were to say Ben, you know in the in the future The four-year cycle will no longer be a thing and all this seasonality that we've been talking about will no longer be a thing I would have to imagine it would be due to some like worldwide recession if you look at if you look at seasonality in in like the post-having years like 2021 2017 2013 that that that sort of phase and if you look at it for for the stock market So the post-election year it's normally a good year, but you can find Some years that it's not good like if you look at 2001 it was not a good year even though normally Like that year after the election would be considered a fairly good year and the reason it wasn't was because we had a sort of this global recession But I mean, I think that it's I think that it's still intact until proven otherwise and I mean I'm just sort of looking for that same secondary scare and Bitcoin that normally sends all coins even lower Which I think might even be happening right now I mean a lot of these all coins are again stuck in traffic on Struggle Street and they're not going anywhere You know, I mean Bitcoin would what happened Bitcoin pump the 30k and the all-coin market barely moved, you know So Yeah, I think it's I think it's still intact so far Rob I think the thing to you to to more so consider is is, you know, could there be could there be a recession? But you know, it'd be interesting if we had a Maybe like a brief recession just before the having just like we had last cycle, you know Like we had one just before the having and by the way, what's interesting is going back to the last question If we did get a recession and say early Q4 or early Q1 of Next year like to say Q1 of next year just before the having that could actually correspond to final all coin Congratulations, right where people finally say, all right, you know, the doomers are right There's gonna be a recession and they finally sell their all coins and that's when the new all coin market cycle bull market gets So I mean, that's what happened last time, you know I mean, we saw off putting in new lows just before the having and then they shot up going into the having and Here we are here we are. Well, man I hope you're right because I could use a little bit more price depreciation and So I can fill up what I'm trying to purchase guys in question you Invalidation of for your cycles, could it happen? Anything that you could say for that would invalidate these I I agree with Ben I think so far so far we seem to be we seem to be on course for it the things I'll be watching out for our our inflation and and high interest rates really because this is, you know That's new territory for crypto. We haven't The market hasn't the crypto market hasn't had to deal with that before and I guess the big question Therefore is, you know, how long are rates going to stay this high and if we're talking about the United States I mean Jerome has said High for the rest of the year and possibly into 2025 as well So I think That's definitely something that can test the four-year cycle is is crypto is Bitcoin and Crypto by extension. How are they going to cope with with a high in with a high inflation and you know High interest rate environment so that could that could knock it off course. There's also the regulatory risk as well There's a lot of uncertainty still even after ripple. I mean, I think I think this ripple ruling In in retrospect hasn't changed all that much. There was that kind of initial euphoria from it and and now I think we're sort of Kind of getting back to where we were before that ruling so Uncertainties uncertainty for institutions, especially and I think that's another thing to flag up as well You know, the investor profile is different this time around, you know, now this could this could result in much larger inflows because Institutions are going to be so much so much more heavily involved But they still don't have the clarity that they need especially in the United States That's not to say that there there isn't kind of regulatory progress elsewhere and obviously we had this I think there was the news today or yesterday that An exchange in Hong Kong has been has been approved already. So that could that could be a good sign But yeah, I think we could see hesitancy from institutions because of regulatory uncertainty I think that could certainly delay the start of the next cycle perhaps so Yeah, I think those are definitely things that we should be that we should be aware of and and watching out for and you're You're right. I kind of feel the same as you I I Often question that this idea of the cycle as well and lie there in the darkness thinking What happens if it what happens if that is the case, you know, if if the cycle doesn't play out, you know Where do we go from there? So I think there are yeah, I think there's a definite chance that it could be If not derailed then then delayed certainly. Yeah, I will say this I think if it's if the 40 cycles don't play out, it'll just be some type of form where instead of the 2025 being Let's just say for example, let's just play devil's advocate in 2025 doesn't happen, right? And then all of a sudden it just goes flat or decreases, but at some point crypto digital assets, they're inevitable It's inevitable about what's gonna happen. It doesn't matter even if that Bitcoin ETF And I said this before you know that Bitcoin ETF does not get approved It doesn't matter because the biggest players in the game as far as in tradfi black rock and an arc and Fidelity it just proves to everybody that hey There's a reason why they're investing into it and it'll filter down into Traditional finance people who want to invest and it'll tilt it down to the people who are like the normies like us Well, we already know so I think it doesn't matter if it happens 25 or it goes on for a while It'll just at some point will happen But I will say and I will make mention that if you just take a look at the Bitcoin just monthly returns You can just look at that column in September. It's pretty red and it's read almost almost all the time and and if you take a look at in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq September is the crappiest month Historically traditionally so when September comes around we've only got what three and a half weeks to go it It's not looking too good for for this year So I don't expect September to all automatically be a pretty green month I expect it to be pretty bearish and then maybe moving into q4 q1 and 2024 We see some more action, but I can see it going down, but of course every time I think it's gonna go one way What does it do the exact opposite thing anyhow? That's that's what we have. Let's talk about Kai this would be a good one I'll start with you about this the pause and pivot because you put out this really great video and and you went over Drone Powell and and the Fed and what they were and all the different questions that the reporters asked and you Want kind of like behind the scenes about what do you thought it was and and everything else? So tell me about this for next month Do we think are we going to do a pause and is there ever a pivot in coming up and what does that pivot look like? Well, of course we we've now got quite a long time until the next Fed meeting I think they're off until late September. Yeah, so we've got we've got a while And I think there are two sets of data Ben correct me if I'm wrong, but I think there are I think there are two jobs reports and two Inflation prints between now and then and Jerome has said, you know, he says in every practice He says the same things over and over again doesn't he but you know, it's worth it's it's worth reiterating them You know inflation to 2% stay the course etc. But data dependent is has been a big thing for him They're watching the data. So those two reports that come out. I think are going to be quite consequential I think in terms of a pause. I think there's I think if the data is right, then yeah, I don't see I don't see why that wouldn't happen And I think I think there's definitely a chance that they could that they could agree that rates are as high as they need to be For the time being obviously we have seen progress on inflation, you know Apart from the core which tends to be a bit sticky, but headline which is important Even though the Fed pays more attention to the core headline is still very important and that has come down I mean, what's that around 3% now? So that's you know, it's not a million miles away And especially when you consider what it was just a few months ago. So Definite progress on that front In terms of the pivots, I Don't see that Jerome said probably no pivot until 2025 and I don't see Any reason to not believe him on that unless of course Something breaks unless something goes wrong, but I mean, it's it's incredible really isn't it because we've been expecting something to break for so long You know, we thought and then just last month we had you guys over there had this amazing jobs report And then what was it last week of the week before? Lo and behold US GDP has gone up That's right. I don't I don't yeah, and it's it's almost like I think you touched on this Robert It's almost like what you expect to happen. What kind of should happen based on the data and based on Historical precedents and all that what should happen just just doesn't and I think a recession is a good good example of that you know, we Everyone seemed to myself included seemed to think a recession was inevitable and I mean, I still think there's a chance of it But you know up until now I've been I've been proved wrong because it just hasn't materialized and I'm not entirely sure why that is But I think as we've said before, you know, you've got to give Jerome and and and his team at the Fed a bit of credit You know, they've they've done well so far to get to where they are at this point But pivots I know I think we're I think we're a long way from that Yeah, you know what that's something that we don't we don't talk about too much because some people, you know They just say well Jerome Powell is the whole reason why we're we're stuck in this mess But in all honesty, I mean take a look at inflation. I mean we were pretty high They did what they were supposed to do. Some people said they should have done more I was the one I think all three of us said said the same thing Like maybe if we would have raised the rates earlier and harder We wouldn't be in this situation for longer, but doesn't matter because here we are we can't change what's happening We can only change the way that we responded those things So for this piece, I can definitely see it and then and just like you talked about guy about, you know like the GDP goes up and things like and Just it does the exact opposite but then of course we have, you know America was just downgraded from triple a to double a plus For credit rating and we take a look at the debt and it looks like it's pretty much unsustainable So and I think it was there was a Quote from the Social Security Administration and in 10 years social security here will become insolvent and Then in three years, we'll be spending more on the debt itself Then the military complex spends on all the different military Outages or outlets so if we start to spend more on the debt the more on what we spend in the military it'll be a first for America and That's an interesting guy spend a lot on the military Yeah, we don't have yeah, we don't have socialized medicine. The reason for that is because we put it on the military Yeah, that's just a shame, but that is where is where we're at. Oh Right then it's all those aliens selling their selling their technology to you guys Well, that's well, it's gonna come out at some point guy. We just we're just waiting for it Maybe another hearing. Have you seen that? On the same side, okay Have you seen the clip where they're like the dollar the US dollar is backed by nothing and then the nothing is like this massive US military Yes, I've seen that somebody said and there was another meme. It said Why doesn't America have socialized medicine and then like like the next one is f around and find out and just as big Hello carrier with all these different jets and military personnel. I'm like, that's a big thing. Hey, how almost a trillion dollars I think it's 849 billion per year America All right, Ben and then everybody I've got some questions in the chamber already if you want to ask your questions We'll get to that after this but then I think you've been pretty clear about this You don't think the Pevots coming anytime soon because of what Jerome Powell says but anything anything different with pauses and pivots I mean, I think it'll probably come in 2024 is my guess Well, but if it does come in 24, what does the economy look like because usually when they pivot It's like not the greatest time Well, the stock I mean the stock market leads the economy usually. Yes I mean the Fed doesn't have any reason to pivot when when the S&P is at 4,500 4,600 All it takes is a large correction I mean like if you have like a major correction like we had in March 2020 or in in the financial crisis or in 1988 in October of 1987, which was also a pivot year and a pre-election year They I don't think they're gonna pivot this year. I think that that is is not much as clear Inflation is still too high headline inflation has come down a lot, but If you look at core inflation, it is still relatively sticky So I think they're gonna stick to their you know to their resolve this year I'm not so sure about about if they'll they'll be able to next year or not I think that you know in terms of in terms of the economy We always have to remember too that there there is a lag in terms of interest rate I think they don't affect and Rob, maybe you can pull the chart up. So I know you already have the It just go to the macro tab on the charts and and look up ROI yeah macro and then type in type in yield and then look at ROI to low after yield curve inversion And and I want you to I want you to click off all of them except for this current cycle and the financial crisis So like look it Or no, sorry, you clicked off the financial crisis one. Oh, the oh the last the Great Recession All right, you want me to take off 2019 you can leave it But the point is the point is like, you know after yield curve inversion You can climb the wall work like I and I think this is one of those things that a lot of people look at and Say that well, you know, if the market's going up it can never go down But historically after yield curve inversion the market You know, we'll climb the wall of worry But there's a lag I think on on how long it takes for interest rates to actually be felt by the by the economy and And you can even look at other we're gonna be adding some new new metrics Well, so we soon were instead of looking out at, you know The ROI to low we'll be looking at like like jobs numbers and stuff after yield curve inversion Because when you actually when you actually look at this in the context of prior cycles We're acting we're more or less tracking a lot of prior cycles So I don't I don't know I think that it would be premature to say that, you know We've we've avoided any type of landing normally it doesn't occur until you know 12 months 18 months after yield curve inversion And we're just now just over we just hit a year out from the inversion of the two the two year in the ten year We're this October will be a year out from the inversion of the three month in the ten year So I think that and again if this I showed this trend earlier as well like if you look at Google Trends And you look at at just the word recession There tends to be a spike in in recession searches right when the yield curve inverts And then there's a spike in recession recession searches later when it uninverts and you actually get the recession So my view is that they'll probably pivot in 2024 is is is what i'm thinking and I think that um I think that that altcoins that will that could that could very well correspond to altcoins finally Starting the you know like everyone's been calling for all season for the last year and a half, you know Right, but I mean it's true right? I mean we see we see crypto twitter. It's like anytime. There's a five percent pump You know like all these altcoins are going to the moon, right? But What happens you wait a couple of weeks and they just slowly start to go back down um And I I don't really think that's going to change until we we get a pivot by the fed and I I think that's likely going to occur um next year Okay. Well, whichever one of you is right I think it'll still be just fine, especially if uh if guys right 2025 at pivot great because what happens in 2025 Usually after that happens markets Right market recovers first and the economy recovers I I'd like to be here for that time and then if ben's right in 2024 whether that be late or mid It doesn't really matter what we have coming up bitcoin having and nothing And of course up to the bitcoin having we'll see a lot of things a lot of price appreciation after the fact so And we'll see how it goes. I think we're in the right place at the right time But only time we'll tell all right, so that will take uh care of the questions Let's break into a little q and a and we'll get the heck out of here So This is a good one. I don't know if you guys have ever seen blockchain backer I think he was the same one that that uh For the last cycle was like yeah, this is I don't think it's going to keep going up and actually worked out Block paying blockchain backers an excellent chart of the four year cycles not playing out They are more like long super cycles. I remember that being like the narrative You remember that the super cycle theory and like we just keep going out I don't know if you put much credence into that or I think guy even covered this in a in a video at one point It rings a bell It rings a bell. Yeah, we've talked we have talked about the super cycle before Um, I can't remember where it must have been must have been quite a long time ago But um Yeah, I remember I remember it being an interesting theory for sure I must I must dig back into it because my mind is my mind is pretty flank as to You know as to what what it might entail, but yeah, certainly. I think it's something we have covered That will lead me to my next point Real quick or are bendy of anything for the super cycle. Do you have any credence to that? Oh, look, I mean I used to think that there is a decent chance that that could be the case Like a like a cycle that is lengthened out because if you look historically that has happened, but um, Yeah, I don't know. I mean I Everything so far shows more or less the same thing, right? I mean and again like there were a ton of people um That thought summer 2022 was the bottom because of this idea of Of the cycle going different than it normally does right avoiding the drop in q4 But then we got the drop in q4, you know and now is sort of a similar narrative is coming out of of new highs You know this year or early next year because of these ideas of like, you know um Sort of deviating from from the traditional cycle But I don't know like what if it just plays out like it always does So, I mean, I think any any theory is worth considering Um for sure I don't and I don't I don't specifically know that theory that you mentioned Like I don't know like what his view on it specifically is it would maybe be worthwhile for me to for me to go Check out what he's what he's looking at but until proven otherwise I I think that it makes sense to assume that it's not different, but we'll see Yeah, I think this is like this is where I think it comes from right the smart cycle cycle bottom ROI to the top in the first cycle I made it very short And of course the second cycle lengthened out Right, of course I could see for them, but the fourth one didn't It's weird, right and and that's that's what keeps me up at night about these these four-year cycles I'm like, I I think it's gonna happen. But again, never know All right, and that would lead me to my next My next comment Which is when one guy says, uh, you know, like I just got things going on Danny says we're in a depression phase. Look at guys face This is not because guy is feeling bad about the the the cycles guys got a problem with electricity in uav And he's trying to get stuff done. He can't get stuff done. So there's something Beyond that I would say I've had a I've had a very frustrating day It's it's just that it's other than other than that. It's sunshine and roses But yeah, if you're if you're trying to if you're trying to run a youtube channel and you don't have any power You are You're struggling. Yeah. Yeah come come over to Puerto Rico. It happens like on a weekly basis all right, uh, let's see this one This is where I think the news gets convoluted and it says what do you think about the sec halting Trading on coinbase. Please give me peace of mind. I think this was a story about how There was a there was a piece and Reuters where they said Uh that gary genzler said to brian armstrong and the whole team at coinbase You guys need to shut everything down except for bitcoin because everything else is security But then then the report came out and said that's false and there was a spokesperson from coinbase that said that never happened So uh, the beast this is one of those things where like you kind of the news I understand now I understand why ben is more chart heavy because it kind of gets out of that the news part to take a look at things the news It can change things in a short term But in a long term and this is one of those things where and you could see like the market dip for like 24 hours Just in a little bit. So anything to add for that or my It's so hard to know what news is even real versus not real You know, I feel like there's like a lot of people will just see a headline and they'll pair at the headline and then later It'll come it'll prove not to be true and then like but everyone is sort of made its rounds through twitter And now everyone thinks it's true um I don't I yeah, I think what's more important right now is not all this all this other So I think the biggest risk to crypto in the short term has nothing to do with that sort of stuff It just has to do with this potential seasonal correction By the s I think this is I think yesterday was like the first day the nasdaq had more than a 1% decline or something in like over 40 days And it's even opening up today Down again So I think that's the bigger risk to crypto right now it hasn't I don't really think the chris the the crypto risk right now Is crypto related I or as crypto related? I think it's more so, you know What if there's just a wider market correction in stocks? Because uh, the I don't know if you guys follow treasury yields, but They've been breaking out and you know when they broke out in 2022 it always it was always a risk-off environment Yeah, I can see that guy same thing same sentiment there Yeah, not much I can not much I can disagree with Disagree with on there I will just say this there's headlines and then other people do crazy stuff like this They become what's called a thumbnail investor They say look at the thumbnail and like oh my god things are going down. I got to sell everything or oh my god Uh, there's gonna be an explosion in bitcoin I got to buy everything and they don't really take a listen to like the actual information behind the information So just be aware of that There's a lot of crap out there. Just do what I do make your thumbnails just like high school powerpoint presentation slides Oh my god god You know what ben's got the best thumbnails. It's just him and you know what and he even upgraded this year He actually has a picture of himself smiling which is crazy. I know but I'm just saying like try it out You know You'll get fewer views but the quality of the viewers goes out That is actually a pretty good point. I'm gonna I might actually try to try that. All right so let's see This one and we'll take a couple more and we'll get out of here Uh cbk says it will be invalid this cycle the miners hash rate is speeding the cycle up Last all-time high was a manipulation fluke go with the indicators The cycle will peak much earlier Then what people are saying, you know, I was talking to a group of like hardcore traders Um, and they were saying that actually the last cycle worked out pretty well because there was so much leverage and it was hyping up everything and it actually Pumped things that usually wouldn't pump. So I don't know any thoughts of this gents I think we always come up with a narrative to explain things And it just always plays out more or less the same way. So I don't know I mean, I it's it's hard for me to to want to deviate And especially after especially after 2022 playing out just out 2018 played out and just out 2014 played out It's hard for me to say that You know anything necessarily has to be different. I think we're likely just going to see the same thing We'll get a scare Uh sometime between now and the having and then and then we'll likely go up after that now I would I would I would change my mind though if potentially we haven't seen the resolution of the yield curve between now and then But I think there's a chance we will Yeah, as far as the the leverage and stuff. Yeah, like I know that was sort of the reason why Um, was the you know, sort of the reason why we potentially went to to 69k But at the end of the day, you know, the reason Doesn't necessarily matter. It's just the fact that the price action is king Like it went to a new high Whatever the reason who cares like that's what happens Yeah, that doesn't matter as long as where the price goes up everybody's happy. All right Well, gents, I think uh, this would be a good time to wrap it up with this last comment I've been watching the same three mfers for almost three years now. Thank you everybody for watching. We appreciate it and for that Do you think he means us? I I think so I'm I'm not for sure and and and I gotta tell you in three years Ben hasn't changed. He's got the same background the same door is sometimes shut sometimes a jar and probably the same desk Yeah, it's just a heck of the changes I feel like come down here sometimes they're like you still have your cardboard desk Ben's like, yeah, man, I gotta I gotta buy all this uh, not all this bitcoin. I can't just be I'm gonna buy rob's altcoin bags if I upgrade my desk Exactly. That's what I keep saying. That's what I keep saying. I mean look Someone's got to get on leave these bags. It's got to be somebody All right, everybody. I think that's that's a good point to jump off Of course follow ben and guy at their respective channels guy. I'll put in that the trading channel right now That's it. So thanks everybody for stopping by. We appreciate it and we'll see you on the next one See you next week