 Hey everyone, this is Dan with another episode of my weekly analysis. After last Friday's May CPI announcement, SPY dropped 2.9% and QQQ was down 3.5% just in that one day. So far this year, SPY has been down 18% and QQQQ has been down 28%. The market certainly looks very bearish. I believe the market can possibly go down even more in the next 2-3 weeks, mainly because of the high inflation rate and because of the rate hikes and quantitative tightening, or QT, by the Federal Reserve Banks. On top of that, we have still the Ukraine war going on. And my prediction is that the market will continue to ping-pong up and down while generally trending down in the next few months. When the Fed is fighting inflation. But that doesn't mean we have to lose money as the market goes down. I have been focusing on a few ETFs that have gone up since the beginning of the year, while the market has been going down. Let's get into the details. Let's look at the overall market trend since the beginning of the year. As you can see in this chart, SPY has been down 18% and QQQ 28%. Certainly, this is a very bearish looking chart. At this point, I'd like to remind you to also subscribe to my Twitter account, which is DanMarketL, in addition to subscribing to my YouTube channel. Almost on a daily basis, I update my Twitter subscribers about some of my trades as well as any important news developments. For example, on May 16th, I tweeted that I bought COPX and then on June 3rd, I saw COPX at 8% gain. And on May 27th, I said I saw two-thirds of my UCO shares bought on May 19th at 9.5% gain and June 2nd, I tweeted that I saw half of my TMV shares at 4% gain. And then on June 7th, I tweeted that I bought SQQQ, when I thought the market was about to head down, and then three days later, I sold half of the SQQQ shares at 14% gain. If you like what you've seen so far, I'd like to encourage you to click the like, subscribe, and notification button for the sake of the YouTube algorithm. Thank you very much. Let's continue. Let's look at some of the significant events that have been influencing the stock market in the last few days. First of all, there's been a Ukraine war since February, which is really tragic. And in the meanwhile, it's been driving up the prices of oil, natural gas, weed, etc. In China, Shanghai went into lockdown since around the middle of April. Now, finally, the lockdown is easing, although there are still a few small areas that recently went back into lockdown mode in Shanghai. And from what I heard also, there are a few pockets of areas in even Beijing that have entered into lockdown mode. Therefore, even though the lockdown is easing in China, we have not seen the end of it yet. That is certainly disrupting the supply chain, which in turn has been driving up the inflation rate in the United States. Last Friday, June 10th, the May CPI was posted and it came in at 8.6%, that's definitely very high. Ever since April, the Fed has been raising interest rates and also reducing the total assets. That's certainly cooling down the stock market as well. And Russia cut off natural gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria, effective April 26th. And then on May 21st, they cut off the gas to Finland and then on June 1st, the gas to Denmark. Although on June 9th, Russia said they did not plan to cut off any more gas supplies to any additional European customers. We'll see whether that's actually true. On June 1st, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Diamond, said that there would be a hurricane coming over our economy. And that's a rather bearish remark coming from a very important person. On June 3rd, Microsoft lowered its earnings guidance because of the strong dollar. More significant events. On June 3rd, Tesla announced that they would be laying out 10% of the office staff members. And Elon Musk sent an email to his top executive saying that he felt super bad about the economy. On June 2nd, the news came out that there's a possibility of Russia opening up a humanitarian corridor to allow export of wheat from Ukraine. And because of this news, the price of wheat has been coming down in the last few days. On June 6th, President Biden invoked the Defense Production Act to accelerate the domestic manufacturing of clean energy. This might have some implication with regard to the clean energy related stocks. On June 10th, it was announced that the federal budget deficit narrowed in May. And actually, the federal government spending declined in May by 24%. That's pretty impressive. As far as significant events, that'll happen in the next few days. On June 14th, the May PPI will be posted and the forecast is 8.6%, which is not much lower than the previous PPI of 8.8%. That means inflation is still pretty high. And on June 14th and June 15th, it'll be the FOMC meeting. After the meeting, in the afternoon of June 15th, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank Jerome Powell will provide updates on interest rate hikes as well as QT. Let's look at where we stand with inflation. As of March of this year, it was 8.5% year-to-year. April, the number came in a little lower at 8.3%. But unfortunately, the main number posted just last Friday was 8.6% higher than March and higher than April. And because of that, the market dropped significantly on Friday. Earlier in May, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Mr. Bill Dudley said that the Fed funds rate might go up to as high as 6% before the Fed can get inflation under control. And I think 6% is a reasonable estimate. It might even go higher than that eventually before the inflation rate can be brought under control. In the video that I posted on May 22nd, I compare the data for today to the data between 1973 and 1976, when inflation went above 8%. During that time, the market actually at one point dropped 50% from its all-time high. And then another similar period, that's from 1978 to 1982. Again, the inflation rate went above 8%. And during that period, S&P dropped 27% from its all-time high. So far, S&P only dropped 18% from its recent all-time high. And therefore, I think it's entirely possible that the market can drop as much as 27% from its all-time high, or maybe it will drop even more. And I've been preparing for it by way of picking special ETFs for my investments. I'll talk about that in the next few minutes. So how do we make a profit while the market is going down? I've selected a few ETFs that've been going up while the market has been going down. They are TMV, the ETF paid to the 20-year treasury rate. UCO, the crude oil ETF, that's certainly related to the Ukraine war because the Ukraine war has been driving up the prices for oil, natural gas, as well as wheat. UGA, the gasoline ETF. XLE, the energy ETF. UNG, natural gas ETF. I put a question mark behind that because Russia already announced that they do not plan to cut off any more natural gas supply to Western Europe, and that's been stabilizing the natural gas price in the last few days. WEAT, it went up sharply since the beginning of the Ukraine war, but it's been dropping in the last couple of weeks, primarily because of the possibility of the opening of this humanitarian corridor for grain export from Ukraine. And that's why I put three question marks behind that. I definitely would not be buying UNG or WEAT in the next few days. SRIQ and SPXS, they are the triple inverse ETFs paid to the NASDAQ 100 or S&P 500. Related to China COVID reopening, I believe copper related ETFs will be good investment, CPER and COPX. If you look at how these ETFs have been progressing since the beginning of the year, compared to SPY and QQQ, here's the chart. As you can see the best performer was UCO, it's been up 140% since the beginning of the year, and then UNG up 130%, SQQQQ, and so on and so forth. All these ETFs perform better than SPY and QQQQ. Then if you look at the last month, pretty much the same ETFs perform still better than the broad market as represented by SPY and QQQ with the exception of SQQQQ and WEAT. And that's because the market actually went up for a few days before it started to drop on Thursday and Friday. And that's why we see the pattern of SQQQ dropping and then picking up in the last couple of days. And WEAT, of course, that's because of the possibility of the humanitarian corridor and that's why WEAT price has been dropping. If you like what you've seen so far, please click the like, subscribe, and notification button. As usual, I very much welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions. Let's look at SPY. In the following charts, I've added some additional lines. The blue dashed line is the 50-day exponential moving average. The yellow dashed line is a 100-day exponential moving average. And the purple dashed line is a 150-day exponential moving average. And then the red dashed line is a 200-day exponential moving average. On the screen here, I'm showing SPY in three different charts. On the left side is the hourly chart. The middle one is daily chart and the chart on the right is a weekly chart. With the drop in the last couple of days, you can see the RSI has been fairly low on a daily chart and definitely very low on the hourly chart, almost to the point of being oversold. And on the weekly chart, it's fairly low as well. Is it ready for a rebound? Probably not. As of now, the SPY futures is at negative 2.93%. It is now 9 p.m. Sunday night and definitely the sentiment is very bearish. Let's get back to the chart for support. The next level of support will be at the lower Bollinger Band here, 385. And then below that, we have to draw reference all the way back to April of 2021. And here, we have a historical support level at 370-372. And then below that, we'll have to reference a weekly chart. And if you look at this here, it'll be at around 363 here. And then below that, we will have to rely on the 200-week exponential average of around 363 on the weekly chart for support. For resistance, the next level of will be at right here, 398. And then 404 in the middle of the Bollinger Band. And then above that, the next level of resistance will be at around 408. And then if it can get above 417 around here, it will have the chance of showing a higher high than the market might be actually turning bullish. But I doubt that's going to happen in the next few days. Currently, I still have some SQQQ shares. And I will wait for the market to continue to drop until it starts rebounding. Then I will sell my SQQQ to lock in my profit. And then I will wait for the market to recover and then hit a resistance point and start sinking again. Then I will reload my SQQQQ. Because the general trend of the market is definitely bearish since the beginning of the year. And that's why I will be more inclined to buy SQQQ than TQQQ in a bearish looking market, like what's been happening in the last few months. Even though we're looking at SPY, QQQ looks very similar. Let's look at QQQ. For QQQ, looks very similar to SPY. The next level of support will be at 283, the lower bowling Japan. And then below that will be 280. And then below that, it'll be at 276, the intraday bottom here from May 20th. And then below that, we have to reference the weekly chart to look at the 200 week exponential moving average of 276 for support. And then below that, the support level will be at 261. For resistance levels, the next level of resistance will be 300, the middle of the bowling Japan. And then above that will be 305 around here. And then above that will be 310 here. And then 314, and then 317, the upper bowling Japan. Actually, when QQQ is approaching upper bowling Japan, most likely it's going to pull back down. And that's when I will buy SQQQ again. I will sell my SQQQ when QQQQ starts rebound around the lower bowling Japan in the next few days. Let's look at TMV, the ETF that's mostly pegged to the 20-year treasury yield. Before we look at the chart for TMV, let's look at how the 20-year treasury rate has been trending according to this chart published by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. As you can see, at one point it was as high as 15-16% back in around 1981-82%. Currently, it's only at 3.28% today. And therefore, I think it's entirely likely that the 20-year treasury rate will go to 6% or above in the next few months. TMV has pulled back from a high RSI value. And then it bounce back up starting around May 26. And now it's approaching the upper bowling Japan. For resistance level, I see 102 here. And then the next level down will be the middle of the bowling Japan at about 100. For support, I see the next support level at 102 here. And then, of course, the middle of the bowling Japan at about 100 will be a strong support level. And the next level down will be at 97 right here. And then, of course, this line, 92 will be a strong support level as well, which coincidentally is the lower bowling Japan. For resistance, I see the next level of resistance at definitely the upper bowling Japan, 108. And then 112, the peak established on 59. That was an intraday peak. And then the next level of resistance will be at this level. We have to go back all the way to January of 2020, which will be around 118. That will be the next resistance level. I'm pretty sure TMV will go beyond 118, get higher and higher as the Fed continues to increase the Fed funds rate. I still hold TMV shares, and I will most likely buy more shares in the next few days. Let's look at UCO, the three times oil ETF. For UCO, we can see that it hit the upper bowling Japan actually exceeded that by a little bit on June 8. Then it came back down a little bit in the two following days. So when it starts to rebound, I might buy UCO. I've been trading UCO and have made some profits in the process in the last two, three months. When it's starting to go back up again, it'll be time for me to reload UCO. If you look at the daily chart, at this point, the RSI is still pretty high. So it might still go down for a day or two. The next level of resistance will be at 52 right here. And then the next level will be at 48, the middle of the bowling Japan. And then the next level down will be around here, 44. For resistance, I see 55 right here as a resistance level. And of course, at around 55.5, the closing price on June 8, that'll be a strong resistance point. And then of course, upper bowling Japan at 56. And then beyond that, we have to reference Fibonacci extension at 23% of 60.7. That'll be the next level up for resistance. Let's look at UNG, the natural gas ETF. For UNG, the natural gas ETF, we can see the price of natural gas has pulled back a little bit since June 8. I think primarily that's because Russia announced that they would no longer cut off additional gas supply to Western Europe after they switch off the gas already for a few countries. But I'm not sure how much they can keep to that promise. At least for now, for the short term, the market is reacting in a way that is causing the natural gas price to go down. Although it did recover a little bit in the last couple of days. If you look at the next level of support, I see 29, the middle of the bowling Japan. And then the next level down will be right here, 27.5. And then the next level down will be the lower bowling Japan, 26.5. For resistance, definitely 30.5 here will be a resistance level. And then 32 at the upper bowling Japan and also the historical peak here. Let's look at UGA, the gasoline ETF. For UGA, we can see that the daily RSI is still pretty high as well as the weekly RSI. Although because of the situation in Ukraine and the plan of European Union to reduce the oil supply from Russia, the crude oil price as well as gasoline price have been going up, although it's been going sideways in the last few days. And I think it's just gathering momentum. It's about to go up again. I own UGA shares and I might even buy more in the next couple of days when it starts to go up again. When you look at the support level, I see the support level at right here, 75. And then the next level support will be 73, the middle of the bowling Japan. And then the next level support at 68 right here. And then, of course, lower bowling Japan of 64 will be a support level. For resistance, I see the next level of resistance at 80 here. And then after that, we have to reference the Fibonacci extension diagram at 23% of 87. That will be the next resistance level. Let's look at XLE, the energy ETF. With XLE, it hit the very high point on the daily chart on RSI and it's been pulling back a little bit in the last couple of days. It might be supported at the middle of the bowling Japan pretty soon. I want to start rebounding. That would be a good opportunity to buy more shares. For support level, I see the next level of support at 86, definitely the middle of the bowling Japan. And then below that, 83 here. And then below that, 79, the lower bowling Japan. For resistance, the next level of resistance definitely will be at around 93, which happens to be this peak reach on June 8th. And coincidentally, it's also the upper bowling Japan. So that will be pretty strong resistance. And then beyond that, we'll have to reference the Fibonacci extension diagram at 23%. That's 101. That'll be a resistance level. Let's look at WEED, the WEED ETF. We can see that it has dipped below the middle of the bowling Japan. So it's somewhat bearish, mainly because of the possibility of this humanitarian corridor being opened up for Ukraine to export wheat, although it hasn't happened yet. And recently, it's being supported by the 50-day exponential moving average line, the blue dash line here. So for the support level, definitely the current level of around 11. And if that's breached, the next level of support will be at this point, around 10.5. And then the next level of support will be the yellow dash line here, which is the 100-day exponential moving average of 10. For resistance, I see the next level of resistance at 11.4, the middle of the bowling Japan. And the next level up would be 11.6 right here, and then 11.9 here, and then the upper bowling Japan of 12.4. Let's look at COPX, the copper miner ETF. COPX, it reached a peak back in the beginning of April. It dropped and it started to recover around the middle of May because the news came out saying that Shanghai was about to reopen starting in June. But since then, because the reopening of Shanghai has been progressing very slowly, primarily because of that, I believe COPX has been going down again the last three, four days. And hopefully when the COVID situation in China stabilizes, then COPX will recover more. For support levels, I see the next level of support at 36.5 here. And then the next level down will be at 36, the lower bowling Japan. And then finally, this line here, 34, the reason bottom will be a strong support point. For resistance, I see the next level up at 39.2, which is the middle of the bowling Japan. And then the next level of resistance will be at 40.5 right here. And then of course, will be the short-term peak of 41.7. That will be a resistance. And then finally, the upper bowling Japan at around 42. Let's look at CPER, the copper ETF. CPER has been displaying the pattern similar to COPX related to the Shanghai reopening. It dropped and then it recovered and then it dropped again the last three, four days. For resistance, I see the next level of resistance at 25.5 right here. And then below that will be at around 25, the lower bowling Japan. And then below that, that will be the intraday bottom here, 24.5. For resistance level, I see the next level of resistance, definitely at the middle of the bowling Japan around 26.2. And then the next level up will be right around here, 27. And then the next level of resistance will be the upper bowling Japan of 27.4. And then beyond that, I see a resistance at around 28. And then 28.7. And of course, this short-term peak of 30 will be a very strong resistance, but it's going to be a while before CPER can get up to 30. I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor. I share my analysis and stocks trading strategies for educational and entertainment purposes only. If you want to buy or sell stocks, you should make your own decisions and you should definitely consult with your financial advisors before you do so. This wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile, I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments.