 Morning also, I just wanted to go over a euro dollar trade and it was a CPR trade I've posted this you know in the group on the 29th of December and You know, I guess many of you have seen how it's how it's played out But this was I guess more of a video for the newer traders In the group and this is just you know one of you know a few About four CPR type of setups. This is really the kind of the most basic one that you get and You know, this is really the only way if I'm trading any, you know Intra-day supply and demand zones in the way that we draw, you know daily supply and demand zones Is different from the way I would draw? Intra-day supply and demand zone and this is how I identify Really the best intraday supply and demand zones and in this case a supply zone. So You know first things first. We're always looking at trades in Alignment with our fundamental bias, right? So from a euro dollar perspective I'm more long on dollars than I am on the euro, right? So and also as well We'd actually come up to a really nice area on a daily time frame chart You know euro has been you know, I say rallying, but you know It's it's pulled back quite a bit when you look out and zoom out on the you know in a chart over You know, maybe a year a year's time frame. You can see it's kind of pulled back, you know a bit and So, you know, it's it's always about understanding the context and in fact Let me just go to a live chart, right? So if you go to like the daily time frame chart and you look at, you know, the past years Price action You know, all this is is really just a bit of a I guess a pullback, right in terms of In terms of you know, when you're looking at, you know the move to the downside and then you're looking at a move to the upside and so Ultimately location matters is what I'm trying to say Location of intraday trades should really be Tried to look at from a from a from a daily perspective So, you know, if you're getting the same type of setup that I'm about to you know, describe a CPR You know somewhere down here It's not gonna have as much weight as it does up here because you know, this is where you know The value is right if you want to be if you want to be short on a currency pair Then you're looking for a deeper pullback, right? So the the deeper the pullback the better because price, right? There's is not always representative of Value right price is not equal value. They're you know two different things. So If we know we understood that, you know price Or value at the moment all the prices pulled back over the past, you know, two three months or so Value, you know is it's it's potential bargain up here and so And so, you know location first of all matters as to where you're taking these trades So zoom in again down to You know the the actual setup So once you get, you know, one of these types of selves whether it's stop hunts, whether it's different types of CPR's CPR types only this is where you want to then look to, you know trade these types of stuff. So Looking at this and breaking this down from a capture perspective and What you know when we talk about supply and demand as well one of the things that we You know traders don't really focus on or even know about really is understanding the supply and demand equation Yeah, so you have to understand why there's you know all the market participants and why there's likely to be more demand Then supply or more supply then demand that a certain area. It's not just good enough to just say okay. Well You know, this is an area of supply because prices, you know went down. That's not you know, the that's again That's a very simplistic way, you know all these things like you know order blocks and things like that. Don't accurately describe as to you know really break down why Prices went to the downside because as many times Where you might see prices, you know go down, you know Then up for example creating a demand zone and then and then you know You might see prices drift down and then still continue to you know break it now No one obviously knows, you know, you know every single zone that is going to work But in in terms of you know probabilities You really want to know, you know The reasons why market participants are, you know, are going to be short on what is going to be supplied So the first an overarching Reason why there's likely to be more supplied in demand is basically from a value perspective, right? Smart money who understand and the banks, right will understand that they want to be buyers of the dollar Or you know, we're assuming that they want to be buyers of the dollar If we've done a fundamental analysis correctly over the euro which to buy the dollar They have to basically get sure to press sell in order to trade it Right in order to trade the euro against the dollar to have to sell So from a search from us from a fundamental analysis perspective, that's you know, there's there's there's those guys There's gonna be more sellers than buyers if they're right on our fundamental analysis So that's you know tick number one as to the reasons why We should have more supply than demand and then the next thing from a technical analysis perspective is understanding You know traders being caught in their positions because this helps us also understand The the supply and demand equation now traders typically get caught, you know at obvious levels of you know support and resistance Yeah, and this is basically one that is obvious, you know, and we knew that would have that would have caught traders going long because traders Right technical traders typically will you know, there's only really a few types of traders. There's breakout traders Level traders and retrace me traders. Right. That's it. You can have loads of different strategies But there's only really those three types. You know, I have three types of traders. There's breakout traders level traders and Retrace me traders. That's it Maybe you're looking at pullbacks breakouts and level traders kind of trade the underside of each level So they'll wait for a pullback. If that level breaks, they'll take paid take down the side of that And then they'll just get that breaks that pretty try and go long again. So just they just trading levels any which way now in this type of CPR this basically, you know gets the insiduces the breakout trader and the breakout trader is Trader that trades obvious breakouts from obvious levels of support and resistance in this case being resistance If you look to the left as you know 99.999% of YouTube traders as technical traders are taught to do is look to the left to see if there's a level of Resistance, which it was right this level kind of came up came down. And so that's an obvious projection. So of Price and so this large candle, right this large move would have caused traders to Basically, FOMO, right? Right? How many times have you seen a large candle like this and wanted to chase price? So, you know causes traders to FOMO. Obviously, we're looking for short trades, right? Because we understand the over overriding Value perspective. We're not tracing price. We're just looking at this as you know Actually more of a bargain why buy the euro? Sorry, why buy the dollar down here when we can buy for a cheaper price, you know up here, but Nobody knows really You know can say for certain whether prices will turn around. So what we have to do as As traders as traders of a capture pain relief The catch pain relief strategy. This is just one of them is understand That we need to sit on our hands right is is wait, right wait Waiting is important because if we understand that the market is a zero-sum game Right meaning for someone to zero-sum G Well, someone has someone for someone to win someone else has to lose What we're looking for is when traders who are for example breakout traders level traders and retracement traders make mistakes And then we can take advantage of their mistakes by understanding as well the Supply demand equation. So What we're doing is we're waiting, right? We're waiting For traders to go the opposite way to the way that we want to fundamentally and then what we're going to do is we are going to Take advantage of that. And so if you know the breakout traders say if but they're definitely in a lot of them would be Especially on a large candle like this. They would FOMO in right chasing price going pretty much the wrong way Or they could go the right way, right? Because again, nobody knows it could go to the heavens, right? This might not actually be a level of value, you know For the dollar, right? But the fact that when we're waiting and we're not in this training We're not chasing price. It doesn't really affect us whether prices, you know, go to the upside or not But what we're looking for is when traders who are going the wrong way Yeah, get caught in their positions and they don't make any money, right? So well, in fact, not even don't make any money. They they are caught and actually in in in a lot of pain, right? So let me just describe this one second. Let me just get the Just clear actually. Let me just clear all of this All right, so breakout traders are now going long Yeah, you'd have to agree that the majority of them are going long If not all of them are going long on a breakout of this level Whoever trades, you know, the intraday timeframe charts and so they've just seen this move, you know, to the upside Continue going to the high side and then they've seen a pullback and then they've seen pretty much the same type of pattern Which may start to continue like that and then go higher, right? That's what they're looking at and so And so with that Traders are, you know, trading the breakouts of that level and then what we do see is a move that where you get prices start to reverse now When breakout traders get involved in these in these types of trades, they have to go long. They have to buy, right? So they have to buy All right. Now they're buying You know at the pretty close of that candle with some sort of stop-loss just underneath that area there And by the way to varying degrees they might, you know, because this is a 30-minute chart But on maybe on a 15-minute chart, you know You might have traders who have gone long somewhere here somewhere here somewhere here somewhere here right on a five-minute chart You've got traders going long at various different, you know Prices right to the upside, you know, mainly with their stop losses, you know somewhere around here and so In and around this area is where you're going to find lots of breakout traders who are looking to basically go long What happens is is when price fails to do, you know, what they expect price to do and Prices start to reverse A form of bias kicks in which is, you know, as you know, loss of version bias, right? Loss of version bias is Basically a study Which basically says that, you know, pain feels worse than gains feel good Meaning that you feel pain more intensely than you actually feel pleasure and how that manifests itself in trading is by Is is really the fact that the traders will have an inability to take a loss Yeah Meaning that if they don't want to take the loss because the pain feels bad from taking a loss Then they will tend to move or remove their stop losses, right? And how many of us have done that when prices have come good against us and we move our stop was down a little bit More down a little bit more down a little bit more down a little bit more and then we find that instead of risking Maybe 1% on the trade now with, you know, risking 3% on the trade 4% on the trade 5% on the trade, right? And so when you start to see That Type of price action happen right and traders get caught going the wrong way and you know some traders will you know Actually just remove their stop loss altogether They just won't even have a stop loss because they're thinking oh well, you know, I don't really want to get stopped out and so what we see is a Drop in price and this is Really the phase where they get captured Yeah, they get captured in their position because they can't get out, right? They don't want to get out they you know because the loss of version bias. They're not able to get out Psychologically, you know, they don't want to accept the loss Some traders don't want to accept the loss because they you know They've had maybe a bit of a losing streak and then they've decided that you know This is going to be the trade that's going to make them, you know Win it all back and they basically put everything on, you know, this one trade There's so many reasons as to why traders will, you know, take the trade and they're not want to blow up their account Sometimes they're forced to All right, but The lower prices go against them. Yeah is the more pain that they experience so they might think to themselves There's a little bit of relief there But no prices, you know start to go lower Lots of go lower, right and you can start to see now the pain that they're experiencing as prices go forward because They're trapped up here and they don't want to accept the loss. Yeah They do not want to accept the loss and so again further prices go down These guys are really in a lot of pain. Yeah, now they've had some chances to potentially get out Yeah, I had some chances to potentially get out at maybe a deeper loss than what they expected But they're probably thinking to themselves right now with a lot of pain going on, you know, seeing their account Go from, you know, 1% maybe down to 5% 10% You know, some traders might be down even 20% 30% 50% 80% as prices are all the way down here because this represents You know potentially I say potentially but it's represents me about a hundred and something pips Maybe they only risked maybe about 10 pips and we've maybe a 10% You know risk on that one trade, right? So To varying degrees traders are pretty much caught and You know the longer that price doesn't, you know return back to this area and the deeper prices pull back is The more pain that traders are going, you know to be in And so I'll just forward, you know to the present And so what we see right is when price actually comes back up to this area here, right as I had, you know, basically Shown on the 29th of December, right? Breakout traders get pain relief. So anyone who went long, yeah, who bought in this area Has to exit their trade and to exit their trade Selling and the reasons why they're going to exit their trade is because they want some relief Most traders who have gone through this amount of pain have seen their unrealized, you know profit and loss You know down maybe 50 60 70% 20% however much pain it was is just they're just praying that Prices will come back so they can get out for their original loss Yeah, there's not too many traders that will hold and try to you know make money after going through So much pain, you know Logically, you're not really going to do that You are just gonna hope that prices do come back and then you're pretty gonna say well This trade definitely isn't gonna work because it's gone down lower highs and lower lows have been made now a new trend to the Downside probably, you know, I'm gonna now get out of this trade And the next best trade. Yeah other than a winning trade is a break-even trade or at least a small loss Especially when you consider, you know, you were down, you know quite a lot, right as prices came down here and so Traders right we know this, you know psychologically because if you've been through this you will know this if you haven't been through this And you're thinking that you know, you won't go through this just try it, you know try on a demo account I wouldn't say try on a weird account, but just try and see your psychology. It you know, you will More than likely you will want to exit this trade, right? Especially when you've got, you know, real money on the line and so From a from a break-even or small loss perspective if you if traders and break it to break out traders buy here Yeah, from an from a supply and demand order equation They have to exit right exit here and to exit they have to press sell so this adds to the sell Equation, right? So not only do we have fundamental cells coming in from? The the institutions, you know, if we're right about the fundamentals and you know The this level being a bargain price a potential bargain price because it was a bargain here We know that for a fact because prices went to the downside and we understand, you know that the dollar Fundamentally should be a buy over the euro, but then we also have technically these traders who went long Right here now exit in their trade which adds to the supply equation you also have Traders you trade support and resistance Coming into this area and traders who trade support and resistance. This is going to be resistance here, right? You've got resistance in and around these areas and they're getting short around here as well Right, they've definitely been stop-hunted here, right? But at the end of the day, they would be getting short in and around here and you've also got profit-taking Yeah, so traders who are who have bought down in this area here from that level of you know Support support and then these guys support they want to get out somewhere and they're taking profit And if they buy here then they have to sell to exit as well, right? So new traders getting involved selling to go short Traders who bought down here taking profit. They're selling here You know fundamental traders who want to buy the dollar and trade the dollar they're selling here So you've got an overwhelming You know reason overwhelming reasons as to why there's likely to be more sell orders Then demand orders, right? And if that is the case then what you should have is prices You know roll over at some point now Do we know whether prices will exactly roll over of course? Nobody knows we're dealing with probabilities here but when we understand you know part of you know trading and I say part of it but a big understanding of trading is is understanding the probabilistic nature and as to why You want to get involved in a trade and why it is likely to be more supply than demand in an area Right, so we've gone from a higher time frame looking at value We've looked at you know, I haven't really looked at you know into the reasons why you know the dollar I want to be a buyer of the dollar in this video, but you know the dollar for me is better than the Then then the euro is a cheap exchange rate Then we're looking at technically why it is likely to be some more supply than demand and You can pretty much see you know this play out and again this was you know It's forecasted not necessarily predicted but forecasted You know ahead of time as this being a decent area to look for you know short trades today is now the third of January so we had plenty of time in the group to prepare ourselves and I posted that obviously in the group if you're not in the group We're watching this probably on YouTube or something like that then obviously you wouldn't have had the heads up, but This is you know that the level that you know that the rim really the Say the basic level, but this is really the the level that you need to understand as to why trade you know Why you want to select and how to select certain levels understanding market participants in alignment with you know The fundamental analysis and so you know we're seeing this drop Not to say that it's not gonna you know gonna drop even further again. Nobody knows right no one knows how far it's gonna drop It could come back up here who knows But we know we definitely do know that this was there was enough of a profitable trade Depending on obviously where you put your stop in all in order to get some profit out of this And depending on obviously your entry and stop losses This is now a profitable trade for sure anyways guys, what's that 22 minutes in hope you enjoyed the detailed analysis and take care and Yeah, good start to the year if you've taken if you are in this trade and you've taken that trade and Yeah, long may it continue take care and I'll see you all soon