 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Friday morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN, excuse me. Just after 9 AM Eastern time, we got markets in positive territory to kick things off. You got the S&Ps right now, up by about 15 points, trading at $43.95. We put things on a 10-minute basis. You see the acceleration yesterday, quite the acceleration. From $44.30, we drive down to $43.93. We pop up to a level of $44.17. I'm just going to show you something real quick on the Fibonacci basis, folks. Take a look at this Fibonacci. The first move down yesterday morning, we come back up and look where we stopped, man. We talk about it all the time. You've got to be quick with those fingers sometimes. But if you were looking for a projection of this second acceleration to lower prices yesterday, man, what did you get? You got a 1 to 1.618 expansion almost to the tick, man. Almost to the tick. You put it back on a five-minute chart to see the same thing. Just chopped around there for a brief moment at $43.55. We spike a bit. Now, staying on the Fibonacci trends of the Fibonacci is here for the action yesterday. And where do we get up to? So what'd you do, right? Just zooming in on yesterday's action. And I wasn't trading this, but boy, things looked a little bit attractive on that 1 to 1.618 but couldn't quite pull the trigger to get in the way of that moving train. But if you were short on this market on a shorter-term trade, it's always nice to have those Fib numbers up there. And take a look first, right? You drive down from $44.30 down to the price level of $43.93. Where do we pop to? The 618 retracement. And then we do the 1 to 1.618 expansion down to $43.55. Nonetheless, I found those interesting. As I was looking at them yesterday, I'm going to pull them off the chart for some clarity right now. We'll zoom back out on a 10-minute basis. We'll take that one off there as well. Excuse me. Come on. Go operate. OK. And we have the S&P is trading at $43.96 up by 15 points. NASDAQ 100 up by $27 right now. A lot of this having to do with yields, right? We'll jump over to yields in a moment, talk about getting a reprieve this morning on yields. We have the 10-year right now. We'll talk about it right now. Why not? You get the 10-year under 4.6%. Pretty wild, man. Under 4.6%. We jump to Bitcoin up $200 right now at about $27,000. Crew contract catches a bid. How about it, right? Boy, not good. What's going on in Israel? And oh, no chart. Shame on me. Thank you for telling me, Al. That would have been a no dunk in Steve. Thank you. All right. What was I doing there? I'm not paying attention. Here we go. They're coming right now. Perfect. Thanks for telling me, Al. Thanks for telling me, Steve. OK, let's look at that chart right again real quick, because it is pretty interesting. Back to a five-minute chart. We'll do it again quickly. And yeah, we had yesterday's action, right? So first, you have the retracement. There it is, right to the 618. OK, you drive down to the lowest intraday yesterday, about 10 in the morning. You spike up to a 618 retracement of that move. But the one I found more interesting, as this thing was really accelerating at about 12.30 or 1 PM Eastern time, that's where it began. But as it was accelerating at about 2 PM Eastern time, right, driving down to lower prices there. And I'm saying to myself, where can this end? Where is a price point where we might stop the acceleration there? And it was just pretty cool. How you take a look at the Fibonacci levels. And when you look at that extension, it was almost a perfect 1 to 1.618 expansion to lower prices. From there, you got quite a little pop. Nonetheless, we're getting more of a pop than that right now. We're at 43.96 right now. And it is interesting that we're bumping up against the 618 of that dramatic move lower yesterday afternoon. Not sure that's going to hold right now. We got yields moving in dramatic fashion. That is going to drive a lot of the action, to say the least. How about gold, man? Up $42. $42. Up 2.2% at 19.25. There are some mammoth moves all over the place, man. You take a look at yields. Yields yesterday. You go from a spike of $108.16 down to a low of $107.04. We'll call that a point and a half. And since that, then we are up almost a point. So you trade down a point and a half yesterday. You trade up a full point today. I'm generalizing mammoth moves to put it lightly. To put it lightly. Yeah, and those crude prices. What's going on in Israel? Gaza talking about Palestinians evacuating the Gaza Strip. Easier said than done, right? But things seem like they're going to escalate. Shouldn't be surprising, but nonetheless, that's where we find ourselves. And yeah, how about the 30, man? You go from 114 down to a price point of about 111. You're talking about three full points down, two full points up, just wild to put it lightly. All right, let's jump right into earnings, man. We kick things off, JP Morgan, with their numbers. How about $23 billion in 90 days? That's what they're making on net interest income. I think it's $22.9. Let's take a look at it. JP Morgan, not just another net interest income record. Lifts, guidance, fixed income traders post-surprise quarter revenue game. The number that's getting a lot of attention, there it is. 22.9 billion in the three months through September 30th. That is just wild stuff. There's some lofty numbers in terms of what they're getting paid for net interest income in terms of what they're paying out. The biggest US banks that they expect to generate. $89 billion from the revenue source this year. That's just from net interest income. Just from net interest income, they are going to generate $88 billion from the revenue source this year. And I think that's income, net interest income. It's not net interest. It's not gross interest, right? It's net interest income, 22.9, 88.5. They acknowledge it's not gonna be like this forever. Okay, we acknowledge that these results benefit from our over-earning on both net interest income and below normal credit costs, both of which will normalize over time. That's Jamie Dimon, the CEO-Warner that the wars in Ukraine and Middle East could have far-reaching consequences. This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades. A little geopolitical twist in there as well. You got gold spiking. You have crude spiking right now. We jump back to the charts to take a look at the dollar index right now. You get the dollar index as we have yields going lower. Excuse me. Yes, yields going lower, right? Yields go higher yesterday. You spike on the dollar from 105.70 to 106.60. The dollar's still staying. That's the most remarkable part of what's going on right now. You take a look at this thing on a daily basis, okay? And boy, we've been on quite a tear. Let's take that off just for some clarity here. Little big picture, what do we got on here? Yeah, okay, so that's the full pullback on the dollar from the highs of 2022 down to about 100. We back out. You got a little bit of a reprieve, man, but dollar strength continuing in pretty dramatic fashion this morning. We're only off by about eight pennies, but boy, we got yields ripping lower at that same time as you have the dollar index, not giving up anything right now. So what do we got? A safe haven. People flocking to gold. People flocking to the dollar, okay? Even at a time that we have yields reprieving. Giving quite a little bit of a reprieve on a 10-year and a 30-year basis to put it lightly. So you jump over to J.P. Morgan. As I mentioned, they come out with their numbers, strong numbers. You're up to 149, you're backing off a bit to 147.50. You're still gonna open by about $2. We get the banks today, earning season kicking it off next week as well. And yeah, we'll see where we go from there. Getting back into those J.P. Morgan numbers there. Yeah, they got first Republican there they're talking about. Loans rose 18% from a year earlier. Deposits only falling 1%. 1.5 billion in net charge offs. Either way, decent numbers for J.P. Morgan. They're trading higher this morning. We'll check out some of the other banks. We'll take a look at some of the equities this morning. Stay tuned, folks. It's Friday. Right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. 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You jump to city with their numbers, all the banks trading higher this morning, posting decent numbers city up by about a dollar as well. We jump back to a few of those, starting things off with Wells Fargo. So you got J.P. Morgan taking in $22.9 billion in net interest income. Wells Fargo, $13.1 billion in net interest income in 90 days, revenue collected from loan payments minus what depositors are paid is how they put it. That topped the $12.8 billion that the market was looking for. That's $300 million in extra income over 90 days than what the market's looking for. It's just a decimal point, but nonetheless, man. Expenses also rose more than expected though at city. No, excuse me, this is Wells Fargo. We're gonna do city next. $13.1 billion in the quarter, pretty much right in line with net interest income, right, which is interesting. Getting cost under control has been a key tenant of the turnaround plan since the new CEO took over four years ago. Wells Fargo raises the forecast for full year expenses. There's your forecast, we're talking about $51.5 billion is what they're talking about there. Yeah, the company again lifted its full year guidance for non-interest expenses, including operating losses, $251.5 billion. Nonetheless, the market likes the numbers a bit. They are up this morning, we jump over to city. So city, the trading desk, they crush it higher than expected profit. Those numbers, $2.8 billion windfall. How about it, man? City group rates and currencies traders posted their best third quarter in the last eight years as the Federal Reserve kept investors on their toes about the future of heightened interest rates. We've seen some volatility, man, right? Counter to basically what everybody was talking about as well, the moving notes, bonds, the acceleration of the market over that period of time. The larger than expected $2.8 billion windfall boosted total fixed income trading 14% and added to better than expected revenue, costs, and even loan performance. Net income, which analysts estimated would fall 22% rose slightly. You're remarkable, right? You're looking for a 22% decline and you actually get a net income rise. The results came at a pivotal point for their CEO who last month announced a company-wide reorganization that puts a spotlight on five key segments. Trading, banking, wealth management, services, and dealings with US consumers. Seems like that's a decent five areas that a bank would focus on. Yeah, so they set the expectations low, they beat it, they're trading up by a dollar today. 10% increase in total trading revenue, they were looking for the low single digits. What do they say? Under promise and over deliver, right? Remember that phrase, folks. If you can get it done that way, that's the way you wanna get it done in a lot of things in life. Under promise and over deliver. So let's see. They set aside 1.8 billion in provisions in the quarter, a 35% increase from a year earlier. That includes a credit reserve bill of 125 million as customers carried higher balances on cards. Now what I found interesting on JP Morgan jumping back a bit. So they take in 22.9 billion in net interest income in the quarter. They talk about for the year, they're gonna be pushing 88.5 billion from the revenue source this year, talking about net interest income. So 88.5 billion is what they're looking for. Now what's so interesting is you look at their costs, right? So they reported 1.5 billion in net charge offs, credit card loans for the increase, okay? Higher card losses are normalization from exceptionally low levels in recent years and that his firm has been over earning on credit it's gonna come back a bit. They reduced the pile of money set aside for potentially soured loans by 113 million. Now here's where I found it interesting. The firm lowered its full year adjusted expenses guidance to about 84 billion. That excludes a planned FDIC special assessment tied to regional bank failures early this year. They previously said they expected the metric which excludes legal costs to come in at about 84.5. So they lower it to 84. Net interest income alone, they're making $89 billion, right? The adjusted guidance for the entire year for their full year adjusted expense guidance, 84 billion. Not bad when you're making net interest income that covers everything you're doing as a bank and then you still get to keep $5 billion on top of it. That's not how it's gonna be in the future. As they've said, okay, things will normalize and they'll have to go back to business as usual when they're not making $90 billion a year just in net interest income. But that's not where we are today. Today they're making that cash, they're making $22.9 billion over a period of 90 days. Imagine that, man. And there you get the spike. We take a little bit of a longer term look at JPMorgan. You wanna go back, let's do a five year weekly, right? Where are we? Right where you came into COVID at. Pretty interesting when you look at it in that context, right? JPMorgan comes into COVID at about 145. We're sitting at about 147 with a little bit of volatility in between. Not quite the case for all the banks though. Wells Fargo, you come in at about 53. Yeah, they've dealt with their own woes to put it lightly. Wells Fargo right now trading at about $40. You jump over to city and not quite the case at all, man. Look at that, right? Wells Fargo gets all the heat, but check out city, man. Half the price of where you were in 2020 and it looks like a one-way trip, man, to negative prices. Nonetheless, they under promise, they over delivered. You're gonna pop a dollar today to choose me to 42.60 and we will see where we go from there, man. Yeah, Dicey Char for city, right? All right, let's check out some of the fang stocks this morning. We got the NASDAQ 100 up by about 24 points. We jump over to Apple. Apple shares right now up by about 40 pennies. You jump over to Microsoft. Now, Microsoft, the headline, let's jump over to Microsoft. They're basically flat this morning at 331.28 and they get it done. They complete the $69 billion Activision Purchase. That deal goes through. They completed that deal after nearly a two-year fight, two years. Time just flies, man, right? We all say it, we all know it, but boy, it really does. Gonna be interesting to see how this shapes things going forward. And so the biggest ever acquisition in the video game industry gives the maker of Xbox consoles a more formidable position, excuse me, against rivals vaulting it from the fifth to third place globally behind Tencent and Sony. The acquisition is a stunning turnaround after Microsoft execs underestimated the magnitude and longevity of antitrust objections, forcing the software giant to seek a three-month extension of the deal's expiration period from Activision. Nonetheless, they get it done. You had buffered in there over that period of time, going from an arbitrage opportunity. Seems like that was a smart play, man, as the deal gets done. And look at this chart, right? Is it still up there? Yeah, it's still up there. I mean, look at the capital appreciation just from where you were in May, man. Up to 94 bucks, let alone how often you chopped around between about $75 and $80. I forget where Buffett got into it. Maybe it was somewhere back there in March. Maybe that was the pop. Nonetheless, I remember when he was getting in, he was saying, man, this is a good company. This company is a good company. Even if it doesn't get done, I'm gonna be okay, but I think it's gonna get done anyway. So I'm gonna buy Activision. I'm gonna make the gamble that it gets done. There's enough of an upside potential where if it gets done, I'm getting rewarded for that risk. And what happens, it gets done, right? Buffett, gotta give it to a man. All right, we're coming back for the open folks. We got the S&Ps up by 13 points right now. We got crude up by $3 and 25 cents. We got gold, pairing the gains a bit. Still up by $37 right now. And we jumped to yields. You got the tenure up 19 ticks right now. Stay tuned, folks. We're coming back for the Friday open. I'll be back in three minutes. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, Forex, stocks, and options. 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Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets open. You've got markets catching a little bit of a lift on that opening bell. We're back about 4,400 in the S&Ps up by 19 points, NASDAQ 100 up by 42. You got the Dow catching a bit up by half a percent right now nearing 34,000, 33,978. The Russell, quite a day for the Russell to the downside yesterday, man. You're still almost 50 points off of where you were at the highs yesterday of the Russell. You're up by 410th percent, but boy, you took a beating, man, from 1,800 to 1,740 yesterday. That's more than a 3% decline from where you were coming into that eight o'clock price point, time point yesterday morning. And boy, it just didn't give it up for the Russell. Crewed up by $3 as we talked about when we check out the gold contract this morning, man. Gold contract, up by $2 right now. Excuse me, up by 2%, up by 2% right now. At 1922, take a look at that, man. Quite an acceleration off those lows recently. We're pushing 1921 right now. Long way to go to break above some of these areas that could be resistance on gold, but boy, you see everything going on geopolitically in the world. You see it going on with crude, with gold, the dollar index, et cetera. Nonetheless, of yields. We got gold strengthened pretty dramatic fashion up by $38 right now. And if you haven't checked out the gold report, folks, now is a great time to do it. Check it out over the weekend. You can sign up right on the front page of TFNN, the gold report by my dad, Tom O'Brien. You gain access to the subscriber webinar. My dad did in the last couple of months in there as well. What moves the gold market? You gain access to all the archives, of course. And you can sign up, folks, whether it's for one month, you're talking about for the gold report for $119, six months for $559. That's a savings of 22% or $133. Or you sign up for the year for $985. That's a savings of $379 or almost 33% off the monthly price. The best part is, if you're thinking about keeping the newsletter, sign up for the six month or the year because you still get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're thinking about keeping it, you'll lock in those added savings. And we got a new issue coming out Monday as always, updates when warranted as well. But yeah, we got some action and gold to put it lightly, man. Can you find a bar that large on a green basis? You got to go back to really where we were in March of last, is that no March of this year? Yeah, where you caught an acceleration to the highs, the recent highs from 1814 to 2085. That's the last time I see green bars, like the one we got going on today. And geopolitically, boy, it is a tough deal to put it lightly. Words cannot express what is going on. And let's pull the headline over at Bloomberg. I mean, all you got to do is pull up some of the biggest business news organizations in the world. And rightfully so, all they're talking about is what's going on in Gaza, in Israel. The army ordered evacuation of 1.1 million people in Gaza. And you can only imagine what's gonna happen there if they're telling everybody to get out. And it's not gonna end anytime soon, folks. And I think you're seeing the market react to that. And it's going to continue to react to that over and over. We can jump back to our own politics and dealings. And what's going on in the house, man? We are living in interesting times to put it lightly. So you got Steve Scalise, he was second in line behind McCarthy. Turns out that he's probably not gonna get the votes. And so probably instead of putting himself through the ringer of 15 votes only to lose or what it is gonna be, he pulls himself out of the race. So you got Jim Jordan there, could run again for the post, but now what's getting talked about is that maybe you have some type of a dealing with Democrats. And is this how it's gonna happen? Is this how we get some type of form of compromise where you actually have a Republican speaker of the house that is forming some type of partnership with moderate Democrats? It might be happening, folks. Because Republicans just don't have the votes outside of a few hardliners that aren't gonna let it happen. And what's so interesting here is that governments, the art of compromise, folks. So you got these Republican hardliners that refuse to vote for their person and meanwhile what's gonna happen? Because they won't compromise, you're gonna get a speaker of the house that's gonna be with Democrats potentially, right? So talk about not getting what you want because you won't compromise, okay? Government is the art of compromise. So many differences. If you can remember one thing, remember that. And this is interesting times to put it lightly. So you got a deep division and we need a speaker of the house, man. Okay, we need a speaker of the house. We need our government to be able to do the business of the people. And boy, we got a lot going on in this world right now. So hopefully they get that done but that saga continues to play out in light of everything else going on. We jumped to a story about Mr. Huang. Haven't talked about him in a while. Good ol' Archegos. And how about Nomura? You talk about schmoozin' with business clients, man. Let me check out some of these stocks, right? That's still just a Warner Brothers discovery comes to mind most. There's Bill Huang driving this thing up to $78 before the world fell out below him and he lost his bank's $10 billion, lost himself tens of billions of dollars. That's the high, an irrational high and listen, Warner Brothers discovery, they got a lot going on besides Mr. Huang but you can't miss that part of the chart. Absolutely remarkable. It's that long ago, man. March of 2021, cannot believe it's that long ago. Two and a half years ago. Absolutely wild, can't believe it's that long ago. So they talk about in here the relationship he had with Nomura, okay? Not long before the implosion that would rock Wall Street and threaten Bill Huang with life in prison, probably rightfully so, the way he was playing fraud basically with the banks. He tapped out an email to a bank that had been vital to the success of his investments. I mean, some of the wording is just tantalizing in how this plays out, folks. So he appreciated the quote unquote corporate partnership and friendship of Nomura holding Inks execs for 25 years. This is in December of 2020. I just showed you the collapses in March of 2021, okay? December of 2020, he's writing this. So glad to see our partnership is growing even stronger. It's like out of a movie, man, okay? I know all the good Korean restaurants in New York and New Jersey. Eager to host you at my penthouse apartment is what he was trying to do, right? I mean, it's literally out of a scam movie where he's running game on everybody, talking about come visit me at my penthouse. I'll take you out for the Korean restaurants. I know all the good ones in New York and New Jersey. He was responding to an email sent by a gentleman who was the head of Nomura's America's unit who had met with Wang the night before with another Japanese bank official, okay? I recognized again how much you have supported our business globally and I appreciated this kind of strong institutional relationship between us. This is the other gentleman for Nomura, okay? The head of Nomura's America's unit. I enjoyed Italian wine and various topics to talk and I love the penthouse room with great views of the park and the city. It's just amazing stuff. Just three months later, Archegos had collapsed and Nomura had lost almost $3 billion. I hope that wine was delicious, man. I hope that view was really worth it because you were getting wine and dine to the tune of $3 billion. One of the biggest losses in the history of the prime broker industry, the caters to investment funds. Several Wall Street banks also lent to Wang. Who was the other big one? Credit Swiss. Yeah, they're the only one that lost more than Nomura and they are now non-existent. To put it, yeah. They don't even talk about the name anymore. Isn't that wild, right? Nomura, you don't even speak the name anymore. The US incident is what they call it. So just be careful when someone's winding and dine in here like that, folks. Everyone's get their motives. And they were asleep at the wheel to put it lightly. Asleep at the wheel. You had some of the other big banks out here, man. And that's where you see. You only got a brief moment to get out of dodge and don't be the last one holding the paper, man. Because you might lose billions of dollars. Yeah, and that's not going away. Lingering impacts. I thought that verbiage was pretty interesting though. Just some emails among friends, right? 90 days before, he goes BK and loses the company $3 billion. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. 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To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Folks, we get markets in positive territory. S&P's up by 22 right now. You take a look at the action yesterday, right? We almost got the entire move back of yesterday afternoon. And folks, that was a move of almost 60 S&P points and you just traded up from a price point. Where basically you're at the 786 of that entire move to 4408, we just got to a price point of 4407.75. We'll see if we give that up. Just wild action across the board. We gotta take a look at commodities. You got crude, up 289, we give it up a bit. We're up at almost 87 bucks. We've backed off about a dollar in crude. We're trading at 85, 83. You jump over to that gold contract, up by $37. Folks, if you haven't tried out the gold report yet, even if you had, great time to get back in the gold report, man, that market rocking. We are up $110 from where we were last Friday in the price of gold. And you check out notes and bonds, a slight reprieve from where we've been. Now, we've been talking about this channel line for some time and we are just bumping up against the upper boundary, okay? This is a daily chart of the 10-year. You can pull it up on whatever platform you're trading on. You take a look at the 10-year right now. We're up by about 20 ticks. Boy, that was quite a reversal yesterday. All we're doing is coming up, testing the upper boundary line of that channel line right now. We're trading at 107.27 right now. Excuse me, I've been talking about the five-year ladder of fixed income, bank CDs, FDIC insured. Excuse me, bonds or CDs, a five-year ladder, 5.13. It's basically where we are right now, 5.13. Now, be aggressive with capital that you have doing nothing right now, folks, because it's so easy to be a little lazy for lack of a better word, okay? Because so many banks and even brokerages are paying you nothing on your money that's sitting there. It is very easy to get paid 5% on your money doing nothing right now. So make sure you're getting that 5% because it adds up. And we have the five-year ladder at about 5.13%. And this is gonna persist for some time. Even when rates abate, you're still going to have if they do, right? There's nothing's guaranteed. You're still gonna have pressure on the banks for capital, okay? We live through amazing times where you had banks locking in, let's go back a longer term, right? You had banks buying government securities at prices that are now seen as astronomical by today's standards, okay? The 30-year, which is what banks were buying. Even if you don't cherry pick the 2020, right? Which is not when they were doing it, okay? They were doing it in the year 2021 when you had all the stimulus going on. Everybody had all the money. You had companies getting going public. You had generational deposit flow for some of these banks and they locked in US Treasuries. I mean, you can cherry pick the year, all right? Take it any part of that 12 months. There's your 12 months in the year 2021. If you were buying the 30-year, you were buying it at the best price possible of 154. Maybe you were getting it in the 160s while you're trading at 113 right now. The point being, okay, banks are gonna need capital and they're gonna need capital for some time because investors have woken up to the fact that they can move their money to where capital is getting rewarded, rightfully so, and you're gonna see pressure on these banks to push out CD rates that are above Treasury rates, et cetera, for some time. And so that's gonna be there, but we always talk about it. We'll keep our eye on it. The five-year ladder this morning, 5.13%. That is, I mean, you know, Jimmy's talking about it. We're talking carbs in the dent, folks. We're talking free money, carbs. I love the comparison, Jimmy, for sure. And yeah, there is a real focus right now on fixed income with cash yields above 5% and most portfolios fairly rigid in their asset allocation framework. It was a great commentary. Get in the Tigers, dent folks and check it out. Some great traders and their investors. I love the talk. And yeah, it is a brave new world when you're talking about getting paid 5% risk-free because you got to start running the numbers, folks, in terms of what you're talking about and where the market needs to be for some simple comparison. And this is what you want to do. And listen, my money and my 401k, okay, it's in growth stocks. The market is gonna do well longer term, but if you're in a different segment of retirement, if you're talking about, you know, retirement planning, maybe you're already retired and you want to portion your portfolio to make sure that your bills are paid, et cetera, okay. I know talk about it a lot, man, but I'm harping on it because boy, in my time as an adult, I have not seen risk-free returns to this level. Now, when you're getting 5%, okay, that means that 5% of 4,400 is perfect. We're at a nice round number, 4,400. Well, you got to be at 4,620 next year to equal that 5%. And this is risk-free, okay? So I'm guaranteeing you right now, if you buy the S&P at 4,400, I'll give you 4,620 next year. I said, well, that's great, man, I'll do that. We've just had quite a run. We started the year off at 3,800. You're telling me you'll give me 4,620 next year after the run we've had? Yes, I will. All you got to do is sell the market at 4,400 and buy a CD right now. Okay, so, okay, well, that's good. Well, what if the following year, in two years, I'll give you 4,850. In three years, I'll give you 5,100. In four years, I'll give you 5,348. So four years from right now, I'll give you 5,348 for the S&P, okay? And the five-year ladder, like we've been talking about, 5,600. So in five years, I'll give you 5,600 for the S&P if you want it right now. Risk-free. Those are the comparisons you want to be making, folks. If you're comfortable with that and you're making the assessment that you know what, if I lose 20% of my capital that I have in the market right now, my life might change, okay? Maybe you're a retiree, maybe you're a retiree with a million dollars and you say to yourself, you know what, if I lose 25% right now and I go down to 750,000, that's actually gonna change my quality of life. That's gonna change the way I have to live going forward, okay? But if I go up from a million to 1.25, it's really not gonna change things because I'm living off a million dollars, well, I can take 40 or 50 grand out a year without touching my capital, okay? That's the difference. Now, rates can go higher, inflation can go higher, and that's the worry there, right? Is that you have inflation raging and you're locking in 5% and that 5% is barely keeping up with the cost of living so your real rate of return is nowhere near 5%. That's the comparison. But right now, you buy a five-year ladder and you're getting an S&P return of 5,600 over five years. And for a lot of people, that's very attractive with zero risk. We haven't had a lot of big returns with zero risk lately and I think that's the thing that gets me going. Yeah, you know, John from Boston, he's saying, I remember as a kid going to Shawmut Bank, I remember Shawmut Bank. CDs were 15%, the Union Oyster House, the Union Oyster House, check it out, ladies and gentlemen, right by the Union Oyster House, gotta love it. You know, it's wild, John. So I was born in 1980. I was getting some, you old good old government bonds, savings bonds, right? As a kid, your grandparents give you government saving bonds. Man, I was cashing those in. Finally, when I was buying a house 10, 15 years ago, 10 years ago about, and they had reached their 30-year maturity. And man, I could not believe the interest rates that were tied to those savings bonds when I was cashing them in. Seems like the easiest money ever could have made back then, right? Not exactly the case, hindsight is 20-20. But nonetheless, we go forward and we got the S&Ps at 4404 right now. We got one more segment of the program, folks. Let's check back on on yields. We take a look at the 10-year, just chopping around 107.26 right now. We finished up with the dollar index as we come into this break, dollar index 106.51. Why not? We jumped to gold one more time. Gold, back up $42. One more segment, folks. Stay tuned. We'll be right back. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, the South African RAND, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com. Educating investors. 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Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Back, folks, we got the S&Ps pretty much chopping around where we began the program. How about the Russell, though? Boy, something's going on in that Russell, man. On a day when we got positive prices in the S&P, up 22, you got the Russell. Basically testing the lows of yesterday, 17.45 right now in the Russell, you're negative by a point. Dow catches a bid on some strong bank numbers. 34,068, we jump over to J.P. Morgan. There you go, up 5%, 4.8, up $7, $1.5278. 22.9 billion dollars in 90 days, not bad. Wells Fargo, they catch a bid. Market lows these numbers, man, up 4.3% for Wells Fargo. What'd they take in? 13 billion dollars in 90 days, something like that. Citi, the traders over at Citi in fixed income, they crush it. They're up by 4% right now. They've been talking about Boeing in the den, man. How about Boeing, right? You pull back from almost 200 bucks from where you were on just Wednesday. And just like that, we're trading at 186. You're off another 2.3% for Boeing shares this morning. Been quite a pullback for Boeing, man. You had the run this year, up to 243. Spent a one-way trip for September into October. You were at 230, you were at 186 on Boeing. A little bit of a longer-term look for Boeing shares, man. You fall out of bed from COVID. You hit a low of 89 bucks. You catch a bid up to 276. You trade lower. You're up to the highs of 241. They're dealing with some woes, man, to put it lightly for Boeing, even as we got a market in higher prices and we check in on some of those fang stocks. Nasdaq 100 lagging a bit, only up by a quarter percent. When you get the Dow up by, excuse me, when you have the S&Ps up by six-tenths, you have the Dow up by nine-tenths. The big banks, of course, helping the Dow, JPMorgan putting quite an acceleration on. But yeah, the fang stocks. Apple shares up by a third of a percent right now. Microsoft shares up by half a percent. This is even when you have yields plummeting, right? Let's check back to yields as we wrap up the program. The 10-year, up 18 ticks right now, and that is talking about, we'll finish it up, folks, with the 10-year at 4.61%, 4.61% the yield on that 10-year markets in positive territory. And how about the VIX? As expected, paring some of the gains of yesterday back under 17. Folks, thanks so much for kicking off your Friday right here with the Morning Market Kickoff with me. Stay tuned. We got our man, Basil Chapman, coming up next with the Tiger Technicians Hour. Have a great weekend. Have a safe weekend, folks. No drunk driving out there. Be careful. We'll see you back here Monday morning at nine o'clock. Stay tuned for Basil.