 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now, toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Hello everyone, Basil Chapman, Tiger Technician's Hour on this Wednesday, Wednesday the 2nd of February, well into the year 2022. I don't know if any of you remember, but last year I was saying the end of 2021 going to 2022, I would not be surprised as part of this whole mega bull phase. We start to see stock splits. I have never in all the years that I've been monitoring the market or trading the market or being involved in the market, seen this number of stocks in the thousands, 3000, 4000 without the push towards splitting that it's just an inevitability. It's just part of the process where there's absolutely no difference between trading a $3400 stock and a $34 stock. You just buy whatever you can afford. That's all there is to it. But there's a psychological difference. And what I've done for, I wonder if I can find the right apple, let's see, is it apple? Yeah, look, I've still got the notation in the chapter, every single bit of notation you ever see on my charts, this is now leg C in apple in the day, is my notation is not done automatically. Steve Rhodes has done a real nice job of getting the core of the chapter wave, but the subtleties is really what I've spent time on. I haven't really taken any time of programming for a long time. I might get into it very soon. I'm just trying to figure out a program that'll help me do it at the trade station. It's a little too complex. All these years I could have done it. I could have been an expert, probably. But anyway, what I was saying is that the notation, you see this 142 round number low? Well, that corresponds to pre-split for apple back in January of 2019. I've got it at 3550. Well, 142 was around number low. And I, not always, but I try to keep at least one of the charts a day, or weekly, usually it's the monthly, with all the notation from there. Look, I've got the whole thing here. I had this, you see this arch formation going from a lowercase h. Let me have it done this for a long time. In the chapter wave methodology, I look at basically three patterns within that there's a whole smorgasbord of other things that I look at. But basically what we're looking at is markets go either straight up or straight down, or a cup formation or an arch formation. The cup formation could be a V, but it's the same thing. You go from one point down back to that point. What happens at that left side high is really important. And on the way down, you can get an arch formation. That says what happens on the left side low after the rally is really important. You can get a combination of one and two and one and three, yes, one and three. Straight down, arch formation, you take out the left side low, it can go a lot lower. We've seen look right here on the apple chart, there's a perfect dreaded H, we call them the dreaded H in red, because if you take out the left side low, you can have even a one to one or more of an entire leg down, or the cup formation arch from the height of the low. Well, what's really important here is that not only have we got a pattern called the falling ax formation after the dreaded H failure pattern in apple, but now we've got a straight line move to the upside. So that means we might be having this formation where there's a much bigger arch and it starts to come down again. Oh, and this is really important. Oh, there's something else happening. And it is the chapter we falling ax formation just looks like a handle and the blade of the ax with the lower highs and much lower lows or an expanding, expanding cone formation. Maybe too much, too many words. And then it forms a base and then it breaks out. And what happens is it goes above the declining trend line and goes one to one in the same number of bars, the same angle, same degree of acceleration to test the left side high or important left side highs. In this case, the left side high in apple will be right here at about, a little slow, 177.18, we're at 175.32 right now, up 67 cents, fantastic earnings. So this falling ax breakout formation says there could be a one to one to the upside goes a little bit high to about the 177 you could test that left side high. A break above it says now you're looking at a V shape pattern. What is the V shape pattern? Why? It's this one here. It is the cup that is not just a cup but it's actually more like a straight line down. There it is. And a straight line up. So these are the patterns we look at but what I was saying is the notation, the reason why I'm absolutely fascinated because it's exactly what I wanted to talk about and a lot of questions coming in. Excuse me. What is this HM pattern that you're talking about in the Dow as a potential? Had a statement, it's not really a question. It's more a statement. Hi Basil, are you still considering this only a balance? What would make you consider this is a recovery to new highs rather than a balance? This is always the exact time where the men separate from the boys in the world of technical analysis. Okay, so let me just do this. I disagree with that statement completely because there is a process that goes on. There's no one, you couldn't find anyone who isn't trying to do an analysis and guessing together with the analysis whether or not we're done going down and then we're going to do a retest. So this lowercase H, you see what happens? You've got the H, it's like this pattern right here and then it forms another arch formation and that becomes a lowercase H going to a lowercase M. What happens each time if it takes out or doesn't take out that left side is always really important. And this is what I'm saying now. Separate the men from the boys. All right, let's just do this. I'm saying that in 2021 based on my analysis of the S and P, forget Apple for a moment, based on my analysis of the S and P, we should make higher highs. So I don't care whether it's separating anything. What I am saying is that I've got, this is a leg B. I'm suspecting that in February, we don't make a new high all of February, 48, 18.62. But we can ready towards it, but we can also come down and it's a real simple thing. In the chapter of methodology, obviously we go again, I haven't even finished my overview and I'm in the middle of like a Friday technical analysis. We try to identify the lowest low bar. From that, we can't eat successively higher peak and it doesn't matter how much you pull back from each peak as long as you don't take out the starting point. If you take out that starting point by one penny, you got to restart the count completely. That's number one. Number two is each higher high, it just says it's a higher high. You use other analyses to tell you where it's going. But a higher high means that if A is 20.00, pulls back and doesn't take out the starting point, say 15, and it then goes to 20.01, that starts leg B. Leg B contains the letter B, a floating letter until the base of peak, then it becomes a peak, one penny above peak B starts leg C. While I'm saying in a temporary buy signal to buy mode, you go to G's, you should still get a peak C and a BG, 20, 20, 20. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. 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And now remember I was saying that in the S&P and the Chevron methodology, a buy signal upgrade to a buy mode which is in the monthly chart says that we should go to at least a peak C pullback and then go to at least a D. D is your objective. You can go higher. You can sort of brand new buy mode but D is the objective and that should be in the, I would suggest that in the first half of 2022, we get to at least a C and we attempt to get to a D. So that was the answer there in the big term. That's what I'm looking longer term. Now, how important is that fourth highest peak when you've upgraded from a buy signal to a buy mode? Here's the one minute ES mini up 18 at 4553. Look how important the different techniques that I've developed over the years and I know that many subscribers subscribe to. That's what they're using as well. Yes, your D, where is it at in the one minute chart right at the 200 period exponential moving average and it goes three times to that level, breaks out once for the leg D, turns into a peak D. Remember one penny or in this case quarter point below the previous high in the bar of leg D makes a peak D and pulls back where it pulls above the recent high of 4545. But wait a minute, we've got a peak C1, C2 back at about three AM this morning and then at four o'clock you start a brand new buy mode in the 10 minute chart and it takes all the way to eight o'clock to make a peak D at 4580 round number high right there. And that was at seven o'clock I think it was eight o'clock exactly eight o'clock pulls back very sharply and that's where the one minute comes in. So I'm alternating at a concord between a daily and a monthly just because the weekly would be the say the two or the five minute chart. So in the meantime back in the range I just wanted to show you that quickly. What's the genesis of the Chapman methodology? Now let's look at this leg to the upside in the S&P where it's up 18. You see the MACD has crossbows if that means a little histogram the vertical lines here have gone above the 0% line up 5.95. That's a good sign. And that says that I can now say that there's a buy signal in place. I'm close to getting a buy mode. I prefer that buy mode to actually come in when the S when the stochastic on the daily chart in this case because we're talking about a daily chart is up near the 68 73% level really close to 80% which I consider imperative for a buy mode to hold. And here's the Chapman wave falling exformation on the S&P. There it is. Make it as simple as possible. And it says over the coming three to four sessions there should be an attempt to get to this trend line at 46 15 where 45 61 46 15 that's 50 points that's 500 down points. I say attempt because we don't know. And if you're looking at the 120 minute chart look at this 120 minute chart is in let me open this up so that we can get the lowest level. Look, peak A peak B peak C pulls back peak D and this is like E and stops where I know this I just saw it for you like you for the very first time right here. Where is it stalling? It's stalling at peak A peak B peak C pulls back doesn't take out the left side low so C is still about it. This is all peak C underneath here and then it goes to D right there. It's almost like a chapwave instant restart because within two within three bars it makes a new recovery high but I'm going to call this E for now just to be as conservative as possible put in a little plus sign above it to say be careful right after 200 period moving average that's where we stalling and says you could have resistance here it could pull back or come back or go above but this level of 45 I'll give you the exact number right now 45, 67.75 that's your magnet right now in the SMP 120 minute chart let's see if we can do the same thing in the QQQ the QQQ is trading at 367.38 up $1.80 in leg B way under the 50 period moving average underneath the left side highs of 372.73 so this is stalling and now what do you get in the 120 minute chart? I don't have to think about whether this is a low it is a low I can put an up arrow immediately normally I put a plus sign and then upgrade that plus sign to an up arrow there we go A this is also an A underneath your objective in the chapwave is to count each higher high or lower low it's that's your objective and there we are B pulls back again that's an A that's an A right there and then once you take out that B you start leg C so here we are in C goes to a peak C and it's a leg D the resistance now is 374.17 and the QQQ at the 200 period moving average we're at 367, 7 points below that so this is where you start to see a little bit of that gesture phrase and not only that the stochastic is flat at 96% in the 120 minute chart that's exactly what you want in a buy mode and that's what you've got 90 is good, 9 is way above the 14 so so far the QQQs are having a decent rally there's something I'll talk about in a moment but I'm not going to do it right now you've got the IWM the Russell 2000 pulling back right at the 14 period moving average now sitting on the 9 this is really terrible action but the rectangle formation says that at some point the Russell 2000 IWM small caps should try for the 209 the bottom, the base of that very long rectangle that went forward it's going to be almost a year March of last year, March the 19th we go to 234 and then beginning of April we go all the way down to 208 so this is really saying stuck in a range I have got a peak D in the weekly chart with an HB equals C2D in the weekly chart technicals are very poor and the Russell 2000 monthly chart is trading at in the monthly chart you've got peak D this is the third month it's below the all-time high of 244 I think it was 244.46 the week of November the 8th and in the 120-minute chart you've got peak A this is almost turning into a Friday session with technical analysis I want you to do this because it's such an important phase we're at right at this very moment I got this here we go yeah I WMPD stalling out of peak D now I forget all that stuff let's just go to crude oil crude oil of course there's a whole bunch of discussion now the speaker's going to be opened a little bit I'd say that I thought they'd be getting very close to some kind of a pullback 87.86 down a whopping 34 cents wow that a recovery high way above the 85.65 continuous contract high of October 2018 we went all the way to today's high of 89.72 this is where I start to say now you've got to be a little careful you've got CVX the multinationals have been absolutely on a tear still as a broken above the 137 all-time high of less than a week ago Exxon had fantastic everything and it is trading now in a leg well that could be a G-Stash B recovery high yesterday and today it's at 79.47 just a bit of a pullback this is going to be an interesting thing if oil pulls back a little bit you've also got natural gas on the tear to the upside nice move up at 5.33 I'll be right back are you having fun 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folks, bunch of questions let me just get to them right now so my answer to the question about the uh is this a balance yes I consider this a balance that has more upside potential but at the same time I think we're going to go to an arch formation pull back maybe halfway into the arch and then make a second arch for an M shape pattern and then comes the big test does it take out the left side low and I'm talking about the down for the moment or does it break to the upside and that really pertains to how this week's close unfolds so I have to do it as a process my bigger thinking is that regardless of what we do on the downside in February which I think is going to be a consolidation month starting March I think March we should start to move higher and then break to new highs that's the way I'm looking at it at least for now okay so a couple of questions have come in so but let me deal with it in a different way is is a GDS time to buy well I think GDX is is think of it more as a trading vehicle I think that a chunk of the downside just for now the short term has been down but he has this rising trend line the chivalry of inside track propellant zone it's working right now I would I would just say to you that gold this big move down from the 18 almost 1860 level on the continuous contract down to almost 1780 has done a chunk of of consolidating you saw that in many of the gold stocks now I think what we're looking at is that the trading range the bottom of the trading range is kind of being established just for the moment because 1780 is key support but now we can start moving up towards the 1820s maybe even the 1830s and then get stuck again that's kind of the way I'm looking at gold right now silver and gold at this moment is up 6 at 1807 continuous contract silver is up 0.06 at 22.65 it's not as not as good a pattern it's closer to the lower range I think it could be stuck with the testing of the 2022 2020s and a lot of resistance 2350s although for breaks about 2360 I would say that's actually very good action I just don't know if it's going to happen right now a dollar a dollar pullback everything about it I said from the moment it happened I said you know if you think about this looks like that is a peak D not a C and everything I do in the count says it is a C but pulling back a sharp as this says you know what you made a lower low than that former peak D way back in November of 2020 2021 at 96.94 yes you pulled back to the 94.60s going back to 97.44 with a new recovery high I have to call it a C and say it's going to be a mess but the weekly chart is in a D and the monthly chart is in a C so now I think the dollar is saying I'm stuck in a range 95.50 is going to be support 96.70 is going to be and 96.70 is going to be strong resistance let's go on to the TLT very important here TLT trading up finally up a dollar 14 and one sneeze I don't sneeze I don't think I remember sneezing during the day except in the show 142.86 142.86 is just above the 14 period thank you thank you just above the 14 period moving average we stuck in a range here at the TLT that's the same thing in yields yields are stuck in a range at the high end bonds in the low end you have the TLT at any point to the next from today Wednesday into next Wednesday a good part of February being covered suddenly starts to trade above 146.80 let's go with this 147 I don't get what the reason is if it starts to go above 147 that's going to be very important because two things are happening you see the XLF it's moving up it's made a nice leg B a great leg B because I haven't got a confirmation here with the stochastic at 45% this is just a bounce this is the S&P financials it should have been helped a lot more with the higher yields on the lower bonds it's helped but not much and here again I think my eye says that we are stuck in a trading range in the XLF so as long as we've got trading ranges without breaking the bottom in this case you'd have to go below 36 and you're at 39, 36 in the XLF that's going to be important here I'm covering it as part of yields now the next thing we've got to look at and this is going to be really important is within the context of the overall market so we've got Crudall saying yep we can have a bit of a digestive phase doesn't have to be a huge pullback let's face it having hit 89.72 in the continuous contract a pullback under the into the into the low 80s a 10% pullback it's gone from a low of 65 just on the 20th of January to 20 30 points almost a 30% gain this is huge I don't know why the media is not making a big deal about it it's not and this is this is both political and economic and pragmatic and it says we have cut our sources and resources towards having some independence Crudall now is in play it's in play for the rest of the year in fact probably for the next couple of years what can I say that's just the way it is let's go on okay cover all that now I need to do this had a question about CF CF is a stock that we've had the CF industry is holding companies hydrogen nitrogen products for clean energy fertilize the emissions of pavement I love the stock we were in it and we just got stopped out and I have not gotten back in we were in from in the 67s just under 68 and here it is at 73.53 and the question is it's in it's going to leg D in the week was that the question here CF industries yeah I think there was a question I answered was yesterday and I just I don't have it right in front of me but I've got this as most likely a leg B in the daily chart I like this so I would say lighten me up you did lighten up a little I wouldn't do any more lightening up I like the stock any pullback towards the 72s I'd put back the little bit that you lightened up only reason being even though the high was 74 77 back on the 28th of December and the high yesterday was 74.73 it's had four cents to go and it would have made a leg and a leg extension leg D I like this I think this is in the area that's favorable and on the short term that's what I would do it add a little bit looking out I don't disagree that there should be a pullback at some point with the whole energy sector XLE I don't think this is part of the XLE but look the XLE is also in leg C in the daily yep I could have an alternate count I don't want to get fussy and fancy I'm calling this a leg C a leg E in the weekly chart the XLE it's a leg D and it's probably making a Pd in the daily so yeah we could be near to some kind of a digestive phase but I have to tell you that energy sector so far it's acting really well 67.22 and the weekly chart stochastic flat at 89% 90 good the monthly chart flat 90% stochastic man I think this is in play so yeah we go that was the one question say CF next thing I want to do where did I go where did I go there we go can you please look at Facebook and Qualcomm Facebook I still call it Facebook even though it's supposed to be meta meta platforms in leg leg B great leg B because it's a magnet just turned positive stochastic is still weak at 46% it's gone above the temporary fully exhumation resistance it's stalled at the 200 and 50 period reading average is down it's up to me at three quick 2.28 so I'll read the question it's a good question I think a lot of people actually have the same question and at Qualcomm we'll do the two together as soon as I get back Qualcomm's having a beautiful search are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater Markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per 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possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor foresight fund services LLC and once in a while for subscribers we'd have that and then I just decided you know for the for the split second of the earnings report I'm going to sacrifice or I'm going to make a ton why do it when he works so hard just looks like like gambling putting on red instead of black or whatever it is so I don't do that anymore so what I am going to say is this so the question is let me go back because a couple of questions almost the same question but with different stocks so now I've lost it oh no no no can you please look at Facebook and Qualcomm earnings are after hours and I want to know if you think the stocks have risen too far from the bottom to make the risk reward worth trying to put long trades on thanks Eddie so any what I'm going to say is this Qualcomm has had a fantastic gap up today it's up 7.74 at 184.90 I would rather look at Qualcomm as a design manufacturing semi semi is wireless communications I'd rather look at Qualcomm as a chart pattern and say it's going right back into the middle of its last trading range just a little bit above and I would put on rather wait a day or two if you miss it you miss it but you risk going in at 185 and to have it suddenly turned down and I'm not sure if it if the earnings are off the hours why is it gapping up like this wow those earnings off the hours are not quite what they want you can see this gap being filled why not wait a day or two if you're looking to put it on a longer-term trade I like Qualcomm's action I think it's very good the monthly chart is saying I'm stuck in the higher range I'm holding well I'm not breaking down it would have been if it was down seven points from yesterday's nice move into the 175 is six area and now it was down into the 165 I say I would wait completely but this is good action so why don't you wait for a pullback if it holds in the general market comes with the downs now up 22 off to being down 60 or something S&P's up 20 I like this I like the action that we're looking at right now so why don't you hold off a minute or the other thing to do is you could just nibble here at 185 nibbling says if it gaps up another 10 points it's part of the process now you have to add at least you're in it and if it gaps down it says all right now I can do my assessment personally I just hold off that's number one but amazon is a little different amazon says that this is part of the infrastructure of sales so I'm looking at the the fang type stocks so this one is a little different I think fang I think amazon is in a different place I think it's going to do a lot more testing of the 2800s will there be a stock split I suspect at some point 3000 I think this is the year I'm going to be the year of the stock split now Facebook is in a different area completely meta meta meta platforms it's at the 200 period moving average I actually don't care what the results are my I suggesting that Apple is going to be in a trading range between 340 and 300 for a little while longer so I don't think looking out that I would be wanting to get into Facebook at this particular point I'd much rather let this digester phase unfold and then look at it so I'm really not the person going to give you the right answer at this particular point because I'm saying I personally would hold off the moment but because of the earnings I think you just don't know what's going to happen how does the market respond one bad word all of a sudden comes down or or like a goog look at this goog where is it now is holding yep it's a up 181 it's given back from 3042 there's now it's it's 100 points below it's more than 100 points lower than the high of the day this is a difficult market to be doing anything but treat it as a bounce that's really important with some stocks showing that they're they're true colors right now and others saying well we we gave you a fake out and we're not going to continue doing that Tim wants to know about is that no Jane oh wait a minute hi Basil if you have a chance could you look at cdns cdns and yes in the target youtube i will i will look at sig in a moment cig so cdns is cadence design systems electrical systems and semis for end products you see this is the kind of pattern that says to me it needs a lot more work it's training at 151 um 0.06 i think there were earnings always earnings coming out but whatever it is there's made a peak e top in the week e the peak e in the monthly and i just think this i'm i'm beginning to think that the whole semiconductor area the digestive phase that i've been talking about is actually going to last a little longer so um this is in that kind of area so let's say the question is i am incensed yesterday i just want to know if i should get out now thank you i have oh you have options you know what i the way it's acting right now just down 15 cents take a little bit off your options just a little bit i i'm suspecting you have call options you didn't say long or short um i have it since yesterday if you have it in since yesterday i still don't know because it's kind of in the same range look let me just say i think there's a room for a cadence designed to move a little bit higher but i the 156 is the two-interpreter exponential moving average that was the gap down low a gap down become huge resistance i don't think it's today would have been the test and it's not gone above a 150 291 if it was at right now at 153 60s i say wow it's going to be a quick run to the 156 area at this point i think it's just stuck so take a little bit off and on the chart itself let me just do this for you because you're talking about options and you're talking about real quick trades let's go to cdns uh and look even in the um even in the 10-minute chart it's not giving any clues because it's stuck in a rectangle formation rectangle formation can last a lot longer than your patience how do you play this now because i can see you you either want to say it's going to break out one way or the other and then you'll hold it or if it's stuck in the range you're going to say oh it's just wasting money if it's just go sideways um yes i i i think i've got a sense now that i'm looking at i suspect the market's going to recover a little later today i think it's still going to be a digestive phase and it's tomorrow that you're going to see the bigger move if you are able to take a little bit off to make some money right now and then use that money for a break even trade i'm not sure whether you're long or short but i'm going to give you both sides of the story if cadence design is able a peak a peak b and a b under a cd that's already made a g in the 10-minute chart if cadence design is able and by one that's already too late no no that's fine by 125 this afternoon if cadence design has pushed above one the three 45 153 45 it's about a point and a half from here the long side is the way to be on the on the offense and i would hold it like a little bit off right now sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv live every market day from 8 30 a.m to 4 p.m eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to 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the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com i vote so um netflix question about net doesn't go down to the 427 it's a 436 level it could but the technicals are just starting to improve and it's starting to fill the gap that's really important with netflix i suspect by friday or monday it will be testing the 453 area somewhere somewhere like that uh luv question uh luv what was the question started position in luv um you know this is part of jets i would just give give it another day i'm just going to say this i'll spend time on the airlines tomorrow but at 4386 it's just kind of stuck in a range i don't know if this is the best one so let me just do a little bit more work on that i don't want to give you just a snapshot answer smh's smh's uh nick wants to know oops smh i think i did the smh didn't i do the smh maybe not the smh's let's do this real quickly yeah this is a nice move up in leg a i still think that overall the smh's are going to start to fail a little bit but absolutely 281 uh no i call it i'll do that tomorrow i can't do it now i don't have time to do an overview i did it yesterday so tomorrow i think the smh's have a little bit more to room to to run in then i think we're going to watch the stalling the cig is now if i can say the name cig is um uh komper and minas gerais seming something like that sorry i can't see it if i could see it made a pd and the question is uh what about it i'm just going to say um ccg to buy i like the action but i would call it it's a 2.50 i'd rather wait for 2.44 ask me again tomorrow if it's coming near the 2.44 area i think it has a chance oh that's a brazil telephone maybe maybe tomorrow yeah i'll do that tomorrow uh anything else that's just yeah i got a couple here this is the best oh we're out of time what was that yep i did that oh amazon amazon we're doing this coming out we won't just do amazon i think amazon should pop but i be real careful i think amazon's got a bit of a problem here on the top this is what uh gals out there you get to go this uh thank you for the venture as soon as i'm done