 Okay, very good morning. It is Wednesday the 20th of January Let's get straight into it and get you up to speed and what's been going on from overnight And then an outlook and major things to be aware of for the day ahead and just having a look across the board Equity index futures generally higher here at the European Open the dollar weaker Dixie down to 10th of 1% So consequently both major pairs in the top left being supported by price in close proximity to their respective R1s In both Eurodon and Cable gold up 13 bucks T-notes having moved up really through yesterday afternoon post the NN speaking And just kind of going sideways in the overnight Asia Pacific session and oils up about $40 So some moderate risk on and it came after a higher close on Wall Street Of course yesterday where we had the S&P class from about 9 tenths of 1% They're now up 0.4 and then as that 100 outperforming the touch up 1.5 percent So what was the main thing and rationale behind some of this market movement? Well She's back with a vengeance Janet Yellen her Senate hearing for her new Kind of position now as US Treasury Secretary and she came out and said quote with interest rates at historical lows The smartest thing we can do is act big now. This wasn't particularly new information This is already being kind of drip-fed into the press as per some of her Comments about the dollar being market determined rather than being influenced by the administration as per previous in Trump and Stephen Manchin but for me there's a couple of things I was thinking about and discussing with a few of the traders yesterday and I think the Reslection if you like of Yellen back into a major influential position is a very Important thing and I was talking about it's a number of months ago when she was first kind of spoken about for this position And for me it's about the combination of having her at the helm of the Treasury and drone power ahead of the Fed now to me That's a well oiled machine and very collaborative. I think in terms of the way that they'll approach Not just the general coordination of activities on the fiscal and monetary policy side But this idea that definitely Yellen would want to be supportive as much as she can given her kind of more dumbish Disposition and then the idea now that they're also in favor of printing and spending so, you know Powers already kind of have that commitment for unlimited quantitative easing even though there's been some recent talk of tapering I think that gets put to bed now that I know Yellen isn't involved with Fed decision-making, but It's going to be something where the two I think work well in unison and we'd definitely be a supportive Combination I think going forward so feel quite quite actually Bullish about that relationship going forward But obviously there's other risks to factor mainly centered on things like the COVID developments the vaccination program But all things being equal the main thing is I don't see any near-term policy Tightening type discussions like taper tapering happening and if anything Yellen is going to be an advocate of keeping rates low and also pumping going big basically Which obviously is a good situation for equities and hence consequently we finished high yesterday An interesting thing though just to add to this because I was talking to a couple of students actually the other day and They were asking me about US China And the ongoing trade war which obviously has been developing over the last couple of years and just wanted to make clear to them really that the Biden administration There's kind of misconception about them having a slightly softer hand in regard to China and I actually think It's very much a case of continuity If anything the unity amongst now them forming a tighter relationship with some of their allies in say The UK or mainland Europe I think if anything brings about even potentially more confrontation than the more isolated approach that Trump was trying to embark upon Over the years gone by under his administration So this was a comment that I thought was worth just touching upon This was the Janet Yellen said yesterday She's prepared to use a full array of tools to address actions such as dumping products erecting trade barriers Giving illegal subsidies to corporations now just give you an idea Biden told the New York Times just last month that he would not make any immediate moves on Trump's tariffs on the 350 billion dollars worth of Chinese imports and as as I just said Yellen has also committed to work with allies rather than Unilaterally so again something which a lot of talking heads in the market were We're commenting on about 12 months ago was this idea that actually from a China's perspective Perhaps a Trump president is actually something that's just better for them even though that sounds rather Confusing or back to front and it's the idea that having Isolated themselves through this extreme protectionist push Having distanced themselves with these other Partners that they would have normally have in the Western developed world Biden brings us back a form of somewhat unity and the coordinated effort amongst say the Eurozone And the US and others it's definitely going to be much more trickier I think for China to handle but again This is very top-level macro rather than here and now for the the session ahead but worse commenting on the other thing there is a quick word about COVID both in the US and In the UK and starting off with the US and US has gone three days without a single-state reporting a record level of coronavirus hospitalizations, so a little glimmer I'm pleased to report of some more positive COVID news for a change And that has added to the kind of relative encouraging trends of declining number of patients And new infections in case numbers that we've been seeing in the US California obviously one of the most influential kind of economic states in America Yesterday they reported a smallest daily increase in cases in six weeks the number of people in California hospitals and coronavirus fell by a net 26 patients doesn't sound like a lot, but that's actually the lowest level in about three weeks One thing I always encourage people to do though is you know never take statistics on face value you've got to think about context and you've got to look at any kind of kind of short-term patterns that might occur with the reporting nature of these numbers to you to get more of a Accurate or valid? understanding of what the underlying trends are and actually though one thing to be aware of with the California figures The devil's in the detail. They might be lower. They might be expected for a typical Tuesday Why well, of course, we had a bank holiday for Mike Luther King junior day So which is kind of delayed then the onset of the numbers So it could have been artificially suppressed in that that way, but nonetheless Cases and hospitalizations generally have been decreasing that has been a bit of a pattern of late for the US and the UK Very different story the UK yesterday I'm sure you read the highest number of daily coronavirus deaths since the actual onset of the pandemic So just over 1600 fatalities. However, despite hospitals being overwhelmed the spread of the virus As we know has been showing some relative degree of Slowing in regards to new infections And so I think at the moment the way cable is trading is despite these Kind of doom and gloom headlines and obviously the reality is is a shocking one and one that definitely is not a good situation on the deaths however, obviously markets forward-looking and with the new The combination I think of cases somewhat declining from recent peaks in combination when with the vaccine Rollout going relatively successfully so far and ramping up in the near term I think markets are taking some solace out of those things That's overshadowing then the kind of the reality of the here and now of what's happening with with the number of fatalities So it turns from a market perspective And again, you know, I talk about these subjects with a heavy heart and with every sympathy for the people affected by this But from a market perspective Cable really is not fazed by some of that negativity if anything they're focusing more on the positive elements as I just discussed So it's an it's a non-issue at this point and you're a dollar and cable very much So supported more by a weaker dollar narrative this morning post Yellen, which is helping support the major dollar based pairs It's very much a dollar move that's that's prevalent across the market this morning Rather than something so much euro or sterling or Aussie related in that respect All right quick look at elsewhere other headlines to update you on Italy He survived the Senate vote. However, he fell short of a majority Premier Conti. So what this means then is it reduces the prospect essentially of his Resignation which would be then going through the kind of arduous process of trying to reform new coalitions It would probably mean that there's going to be some kind of government reshuffle But this moves even further away from the risk of a snap election So if you were looking at BTPs this morning BTPs are higher. So Italian yields have backed off So a little bit of a relief if anything, but still not a concluded matter I would say as far as Italy is concerned ECB we've got ECB meeting on Thursday, but this is something that's a little bit different It's quite an interesting article. I did tweet it from the Amplify Twitter account earlier this morning But the ECB is capping bond yields, but don't call it your curve control obviously your curve control is when central bank it's like the RBA or the BOJ have been very Explicit about saying right we're going to pin down yields in the 10 year at X percent And so therefore when the curve starts steepening if we start to see some degree of normalization economically and Inflation expectations start rising and so on then they know then if they pin down the long end they continue to provide a fairly accommodative Environment irrespective of any economic improvements that are being seen Now a couple of things why this was quite interesting is Basically the main crux of this story is that the ECB is buying bonds to limit the difference between yields for the strongest And weakest economies in the eurozone according to officials familiar with the matter One person saying the central bank has specific ideas on what spreads are appropriate Now the important thing to understand here is that unlike the BOJ and the RBA for example The ECB can't really adopt yield curve control The main reason for that is something called monetary financing. So the ECB under EU law Has basically a remit where they're not allowed to directly finance governments So they can't disproportionately be buying over a certain threshold say Italian debt for example, but You know, definitely they do buy Italian debt probably more than others in order to then offset Let's say current political instability And so therefore it's a little bit more targeted in that way in order to circumvent some of the legal restraints around this this program, so This is something which is quite well known. I'd say Yellen Yellen Lagarde often gets asked about this during press conferences And it's always a very soft touch and a very loose answer in regards to they're not driven by spreads And so on but this is definitely what they do The other obvious thing here that makes it quite complex for them is the fact that unlike say the UK or the US or whomever Safe to be OJ and rather than one central bank to govern one nation They're obviously trying to manage quite wildly different economic and fiscal situations across the board Which for me then would would mean that targeting a specific Yield is going to be particularly difficult in a certain certain Respects because it'd have to be unique cases across every single country and it gets particularly complex then All right, well The other thing to talk about is Netflix and just going to touch upon some of the main kind of features from their earnings report They did trade up over 12% last night and there were always a name that kind of captures a bit of attention They generally do see quite wild fluctuations after earnings their EPS Was actually a miss their revenues exceeded expectations But importantly their Q4 streaming paid net change so subscribers came in at 8.51 million Expectations were for just over 6 million. So they massively outperformed their company also passed 200 million subscriber Mark for the first time and they also came out and said that its cash flow will allow it to stop relying on debt to Fuel its growth going forward and consequently their shares moved up considerably on the back of that Looking forward to today. What other earnings are on the agenda? What we've got P&G United Health MS some of the pre-market names to be aware of united our cover coming out after markets So not index movers pass a but perhaps those five maybe worth keeping an eye out on Terms of the calendar for today. What have we got? Well? We've already had the UK CPI figures and actually year-in-year came in 0.6% it's a touch above expectations of 0.5 the core year-in-year 1.4 is 1.3% so Looking at sterling. Yeah, there's a little there was a little bit of fluctuation but underpinning that currency pairs rise really is in tandem with what we're seeing elsewhere with these dollar-based pairs, which is prevailing dollar weakness now and The Dixie trading down about two tenths of 1% at the moment So continue to reverse some of obviously the solid gains that had seen over the prior couple of sessions in in last week Moving further forward the eurozone CPI numbers are final So they will be on market moving and then going to the US session Pretty quiet. No major US data really today Other than the API all inventories will get after market and you've got the Bank of Canada rate decision I'm not expecting any real significant changes there in terms of the actual Policy side of things rates coming in at 0.25% Then obviously the other thing we're looking out for today that will likely be a main Subject matter that will capture most of the airwaves will be Bidens inauguration very much Symbolic as he gets officially kind of sworn in the timings of this it's going to be our midday Eastern time so around 5 p.m. London and it again, it's all very ceremonial It wouldn't be expecting any tougher market move on the back of this. All right, that is it I'm going to let the guys on the Amphi live Stream in the community talk about the technical levels and the setups trade setups for the day But hopefully that was useful. Hopefully you're up to speed and all the best for the day ahead. Thanks very much