 Good Thursday morning everybody I'm Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFNN 906 AM Thursday morning we got about 24 minutes to go until the starter trading we get some volatility coming into this market even just now we're trading at forty one hundred we're basically flat on the session when I was getting ready for the program even a couple minutes ago you have the S&P is positive by about 15 or 16 points you see the chart on a five minute basis 855 we were trading at 41 18 not sure if there's a news event going on right now fundamental data we have some ADP payrolls data this morning we have weekly jobless claims those numbers were already out though but boy in the last five ten minutes the S&P is just dropping about 20 points in a heartbeat NASDAQ 100 look at this sell off what is going on something's going on hundred points we just give up in about 10 minutes right now in the NASDAQ 100 when negative by 32 points on the session Dow barely hanging on to gains up by 18 the Russell barely positive by one point right now we jump to crypto Bitcoin sitting right at 30,000 this morning we have Ethereum at 18 18 for you you jump to gold up $12 and I'm not sure what data just came out no that's the A30 jobs that okay nine o'clock the markets are moving though gold was moving a little bit on the jobs data now it's back above that price point at 18 63 and we jumped to notes and bonds little bit of sell off yesterday today we're basically up six ticks but you see where we were chopping around from where we were overnight you get the 10 year trading up six ticks at 1 18 26 we jump over to the VIX little bit of a sell off yesterday VIX talk about some sustained gains we put this thing up on a daily man you're chopping around for the better part of six weeks at 25 plus on the VIX sitting right at that level right now the VIX technically positive 27 cents on the session at 25 96 okay we jump around to the fundamental news ahead of tomorrow's non-farm payrolls number we get 80 P it's a pretty weak number the headline number for 80 P business payrolls increasing by 128,000 held back by a decline in small business employment that was actually the headline subtext firms with fewer than 50 employees shedding 91,000 jobs in May you get a net increase of 128,000 last month obviously that would mean the firms with more than 50,000 employees adding about what 220,000 something like that jobs and then you minus out the small companies that are dropping 91,000 you take a look at where we are in the number definitely a decreasing number I mean that's the slowest we've seen in a while for the 80 P number and that followed a downwardly revised 202,000 gain in April trailed all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists now this all comes ahead of Friday number Friday the estimate is 301 we've had some huge divergences between 80 P and non-farm payrolls sometimes they come in line sometimes they are just bonkers different there's revisions that then go into it maybe they line up a little bit better after the revision revisions sort out some of the static going on on a month-to-month basis but that's a miss it's a miss on the small companies as well and yeah as even this says 80 P figures don't always follow the same patterns as the Labor Department data not sure why can somebody tell me why those numbers don't align if you're talking about 80 P that has so many employees service provider employment rising by 104,000 so here I'm going to jump around a couple things because I have said Bloomberg has another article with some great charts about where the jobs are where they are prior to the pandemic versus now jobless claims also out this morning applications for unemployment benefits fell to 200,000 continuing claims decreased to lowest level since 1969 200,000 market was looking for 210 bottom line is this number is just chopping around at about 200 right now off of the lows that we had in March and April that's a pretty decent number and a healthy economy you're gonna get some type of churn with people just cycling through jobs maybe you're quitting to get a better job etc maybe you're quitting for various reasons obviously now we jump to is this the one yes it is labor market to show reemerging dichotomy of tightness risks so the chart I found cool here is the industry gap in terms of where these jobs are several sectors have surpassed their pre-pandemic employment levels professional and business services 738,000 jobs above where we were prior to the pandemic transportation and warehousing interesting to see how that plays out over the next six to 12 months with many companies building out their infrastructure notably Amazon way too quickly in terms of the demand that they were forecasting that they've now all tamed nonetheless transportation and warehousing 673,000 jobs added in two years I think Amazon alone has added like something like 800,000 employees over the last two or three years I wonder how many they make up in the transportation and warehousing sector that's gained 630 73,000 over that time retail trade 284 on the flip side of negative look at leisure and hospitality down 1.4 million from pre-pandemic levels there are a lot of small probably leisure and hospitality businesses that were not able to ride out the pandemic and I'm sure that that's playing into some of those jobs not being able to turn back on as simply as turning a key they are gone for now and yes that market will come back but obviously slower than the rest of the market now I think they talked about in here that yeah leisure and hospitality added the fewest jobs since December of 2020 now tying those two together right leisure and hospitality supposed to be charging back that's the one to make up the most seems like that would be the area that we could gain the most jobs the quickest if we're down 1.4 million jobs from the pre-pandemic levels and nonetheless you're having the slowest employment add for leisure and hospitality since December of 2020 goods producers increased by 24,000 reflecting again in manufacturing but a pullback in construction hiring and yeah we got the weekly jobless claims number at 200,000 last week so we'll see how that one plays out tomorrow when we get the non-farm payroll number but as of right now this market dropping a little bit not sure if anyone then saw anything coming out right there the market but we got somebody selling man as the S&P's just dropped a quick 25 points man since five minutes before I came on the air at 855 a.m. this morning all right jumping around to what else is going on yeah what number was out at 855 or nine o'clock Microsoft cuts guidance okay maybe that is it let's jump over to Microsoft because they're gonna hit oh there you go okay thanks S&P yeah so there's the reason for you folks Microsoft cutting guidance you drop a quick eight dollars from 274 to 266 right at 9 o'clock let's see how some of the other cloud players CRM they were a force yesterday man some strong earnings you gave back a lot of the gains early as the market sold off to about 175 we'll jump to Google Google shares trading a bit but Microsoft they get hammered let's see how Apple's trading in the Nasdaq yeah they sell off a little bit as well you got Apple opening up down $1 right now from 148.71 to 147.90 let's jump over to Tesla shares Tesla basically flat you down $3 it was up to 778 we'll talk a little bit about Tesla later in the program so Elon's got his letter out to executives saying get back to the office at least 40 hours a week or you shouldn't work here that's his right as the CEO to talk about that he wants workers in house 40 hours a week we'll see how that may play out though because human capital is tough right now talk a little bit about that get ready for the market stay tuned folks we'll be right back time of booming inflation we are purchasing powers eroded there's no better place to protect your hard-earned money than ain't gold this 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guidance on weak outlook was the headline and yeah the stocks down about two percent right now okay jumping back to the elon story real quick so it'll be interesting to see you know how different companies navigate the landscape of hiring workers and the remote work ability of many workers to work remotely elon not a fan he wants everybody back a minimum of 40 hours a week and that way it may be what it takes to have the creativity to run a company like tesla here's what i will say though talent is tough to come by you're gonna have people that believe in what he's doing one of the tough parts right now going on one of my friends was talking about this last night in our group chat that's a great point i mean a lot of people when you're coming in you're getting shares potentially right of tesla there's a lot of employees of recent hire that are sitting on shares that are well above seven forty and and it's going to be tough to retain capital if they see it as very difficult to have the types of returns on their option portfolios that they have working for this company you add in that that you have to be sleeping at the factory like elon it's a tough one we'll see he's the ceo as of now that's a completely reasonable decision that may be correct and it's going to be correct for a lot of companies but the way he delivered it too is is leave something to be desired would be one thing to say it uh if you don't show up we'll assume you've resigned i mean come on you can have some respect for your employees along the way the more senior senior you are the more visible must be your presence uh and yeah completely reasonable we'll see if it plays out human capital is so tough right now man there's a lot of brilliant people in technology that don't have to be living in a tesla factory 40 hours plus a week to change the world but elon you may be right we'll see uh okay let's see what else we have going on uh this story was just interesting in terms of wake up folks for sure terror us dollar collapse will probably be the end of most algorithmic algorithmic stable coins crypto exec says folks i went through some of this on the article and if you haven't been through it i'll try and find that Bloomberg article that i was reading that was so great it walked through that basically it was an entire Ponzi scheme and many NFTs are entire Ponzi schemes well out in the open they're guaranteeing 20 percent returns to bring investors into their crypto token an algorithmic stable coin how like UST okay it was based off of luna if it's based off the crypto that can go to zero then it it shouldn't have the word stable in it and i think we all learned that and you're taking an extreme level of risk for almost no reward when you're in a stable coin right it's never going to go above a buck but you know it's going to go below a buck if things go haywire as they very realistically can uh what else we got yeah so it'll be interesting to see how walmart's able to compete man uh the store becoming a shoppable fulfillment center the store is becoming a shoppable fulfillment center i mean they have the outreach folks i did have some walmart in my newsletter rocket equities and options we got stopped out on that recent pullback one of the reasons i had it technical but fundamental as well there's only really one company that can compete with amazon man right now and it's walmart and they have a long way to go i've talked about my troubles ordering with sam's boxes show up with 15 different items all in them you need a forklift almost to bring it in your door there's they're putting babies boxes of babies diapers in there in the same box as popcorn shattering the whole popcorn bag there's popcorn all over the bag amazon would never do that just the process of having to compete with a company like amazon that fires on all cylinders is very difficult but walmart has the reach and they have the warehouse space and they are spending the money but boy it's going to be a lot of money walmart is leading into two key advantages to drive a t-commerce business 4,700 stores and this is a cool one 90 percent of americans live within 10 miles of a walmart store they already have an infrastructure you could say that they have too too large of an infrastructure for probably what they need to compete going forward the largest grosser in the u.s by revenue uh and they want to expand its assortment of merchandise improve the customer experience i would say that one in a big way man amazon just gets it done you know walmart they don't get it done in terms of delivery nobody else does mean compared to amazon is a tough one but the percentage that amazon has if walmart can eek into it is a huge number amazon has 39.5 percent of the online market share in the u.s that's crazy when you think about how many items we order online that amazon has four out of 10 dollars being spent online period uh compared with walmart's seven percent so for every four dollars that somebody is spending online on amazon walmart they're sending seventy cents right now there's no reason why those two start can't start competing to a greater level when wal- if walmart competes what i'll say though is it's not even close to that in my household amazon is probably well over 40 percent of what i order online and dwarfs walmart in a large capacity being a prime member i know that's probably exacerbated but yeah convenience and just high level of quality in terms of the process they deliver last year based on the 12 month period june 2020 to june 21 2021 consumers spent more money in amazon than the big box retailer for the first time so it's a tough one walmart has a shot there's your e-commerce growth slowing in recent quarters yes slowing to a standstill but look at these growth numbers they pulled forward man 74 percent 97 percent 79 percent and 69 percent uh you divvy those out over a couple years and you're still growing at 37 percent quarter over quarter continuing on that level yeah and they have uh they say 4700 stores is what they have yeah so they bought jet.com in 2016 that was a big one they got mark law with that he gave them a shot to compete but you see still how far they are behind the eight ball for walmart take a look at walmart shares five minutes to go until the opening bell there's your pullback walmart had quite a pullback yesterday too man from 129 to 125 we take a look back at the daily this thing was consolidating for a while back to a weekly between the price point about 133 to 151 you jump over that area and then boom it was a quick slide from 160 to 120 on this equity we're going to back it up even further for a five-year weekly and you can see that walmart is right back to basically the highs we had in 2019 we bounce off that area walmart this morning you're basically flat trading at 125 target some tough walls as well since we're looking at walmart the interesting thing about target if you're looking for an entry we're right back at the 618 we're chopping around there for a few weeks now 156 target shares basically flat this morning as well all right let's jump back to microsoft see how they're trading on their cut down a little bit to 165 we take a look at what uh microsoft on a longer term timeframe this equity sitting right at the 382 so you're going to open at about 266 the 382 is at about 267 um still you know yeah we got up to 349 folks but what's important to remember here is is if this is like a real bare market pullback right don't you usually get below where you are at like a month or two prior to the market peak right usually it's a slow grind upwards over years and years and years and years and then there is a pullback that takes back years of growth and we've seen it happen but all microsoft is doing right now is that they're barely back to just last year last year october we're trading at 280 on microsoft stay tuned folks we'll be right back for the open if you want to take advantage of 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conversation was how multiples have been pulled back to a more reasonable level right earnings multiples being pulled back to a more reasonable level but what happens when we start cutting earnings estimates and then those multiples basically go up right you're going to make less money on earnings than you're dealing with multiples that are way above the level that we are now deeming more reasonable and we wake up this morning and you got microsoft trading down almost four percent to 262 91 nasdaq 100 negative by 68 points we jump over to google shares they're basically flat right now we jump over to apple down about eight tenths percent right now sales force down half a percent they were a big winner yesterday after their earnings and we jump around to some of the companies that had numbers game stop always interesting man it might be the play to trade this thing selling volatility premium around earnings because man this thing can rock and roll they come into earnings always with a huge number not sure what the expected move was for earnings last night but i'm sure it was a big one 1015 20 percent at least priced in in a move in either direction and what do you get you got to move about four percent down to the downside right now at game stop trading at 116 we jump over to chewie they give back some of the gains they're up 11.49 percent they made money instead of losing money let's jump over and find some of these stocks are moving and we'll start it off with let's chewie at the top where are we there it is so they made four cents a share compared with consensus forecast of a 14 cents per share loss they also reported better than expected revenue and stood by their prior outlook so they're up about 12 percent they were up about 19.6 percent i mentioned game stop as well hula packard enterprise fell a penny shy of estimates adjustly quarterly earnings 44 cents a share stock was negative in the pre-market hpe is hula packard enterprises oh down 7.5 probably not getting helped out with the likes of microsoft putting this market in negative territory as well and i think i just want to get to yeah so land's end they were negative talking about retailer apparel retailers shares were negative by double digits in the pre-market a loss of seven cents a share three cents smaller than anticipated but revenue fell short of forecast four-year earnings forecast 60 cents to 88 the market was looking for basically 88 so they give themselves a lot more downside on that earnings forecast not what you want to see because that's what's going to send this market folks if everybody starts guiding down on the earnings that increases the p e multiples back up to levels the comfortable company the market might not be comfortable with uh and we'll see how that goes hormel was a little bit positive in the pre-market they beat the top and bottom line they make spam dinty more and genio food brands i have not had spam in a while genio had some good stuff out there have not had that in a while as well some healthy stuff uh so they backed its earlier four-year sales guy and said moves to mitigate inflation and supply chain issues were proving effective well that's a little bit encouraging for the market hormel not so much down 2.4 we get the market a little bit negative right now but they're selling off conference call just beginning at 9 o'clock so not sure what's going on there for hormel all right jumping around to what else we have going on let's jump over to facebook they're losing their c-o-o i believe that was the drop-off right was it late did it happen late i think it did um that that news came out there's the volume that plows in you go from trading about 600 000 shares 500 000 shares every 15 minutes and you trade 7.7 million shares in a 15 minute basis at 330 and 3.7 million so you trade about 11 million shares in the final half hour the trading day for facebook this morning you're clawing back some of those gains to 189 22 it will be interesting to see what this has in store for facebook leaving facebook at a perilous moment that's the opinion piece over bloomberg uh that's the headline and yeah i would say so man facebook you talk about earnings they've gotten back to some decent earnings multiples but this stock you put it on a weekly just chopping around at these lower levels man well below where we were pre-pandemic you were at 220 right you're down 15 below price levels that you were at pre-pandemic for facebook shares at 189 zuckerbergs talked about next three to five years they're going to be spending a lot of money losing a lot of money on the metaverse and yeah that's where things get complicated man you know who knows where they're going to be in three to five years you cannot guarantee a place in future technology just by spending money right yeah zuckerberg he is a genius i'm sure he has a path figured out in his head that can get them there but that's a completely different business model uh somewhat similar what netflix is doing right not even close to the same thing but netflix turning to advertising as a business model completely changes things in terms of how that may play into future earnings future multiples that the market values you that but yeah shallow sandberg stepping down after 14 years she came there in 2008 i think when she showed up but that makes sense 14 years ago zuckerberg was like 23 is he 37 it's possible um remarkable he'd be that young but yeah she's stepping away i mean the most instrumental person at facebook besides zuckerberg she was the face of that company for a long time before zuckerberg really became the face of it and uh 97 percent of facebook's 117 billion dollars in 2021 revenue came from selling ads wasn't that long ago that they didn't sell ads do you remember that do you remember when they were turning that machine on do you remember when they were turning the machine on on mobile ads and people weren't sure if they were going to be able to do that no small feat man and she did it at google too you think about her impact i was listening to some um great interviews just analysis on bloomberg late last night and boy you think about building the two giant engines of the internet advertising platform of google and facebook doing the both 100 billion dollars 117 in one single year of revenue basically all of it coming from advertising and she built that out man under zuckerberg's guidance but yeah quite a feat to say the least all right we'll see how this plays out opec let's jump to oil right now so we have crude a little bit higher 42 cents that's a weekly we were as high as almost 120 on tuesday there's a pop for you man from 112 to 157 that starts at about eight o'clock opec oil prices bounce from lows ahead of key opec output decision so opec and it's oil producing allies including russia met today to discuss production policy for july and whether to increase output more than expected given tight energy markets we'll see how news comes out of that yeah earlier in the session oil prices fell after the financial times reported saudi arabia is prepared to raise crude production if russia's output significantly falls following european sanctions i imagine there's more news coming out of there as well but nonetheless oil persisting to be volatile you're up by about four dollars from those lows that we were trading at just an hour and a half ago man watch out for that crude market yeah i filled up my i have a small bmw coop and it was the most ever i i put 93 in there and i was almost running on fumes 88 to fill up the gas tank so yeah it's a tough one sitting everybody man to say the least s and p's this morning we're trading down about 13 bucks i mean all these consider we're going to pull back in microsoft but the market could be down dramatically more you have an aztec 100 down above just half a percent and you have microsoft right now down three percent guiding down and you gotta imagine that no matter what the reason is for their guiding down that that could be indicative of things to come but the market taken at someone in stride right now we jump to the 10 year see how notes and bonds are trading just chopping around you get the 10 year higher by about eight ticks at 118 29 stay tuned folks we'll come back we'll take a look at some of the companies with earnings tonight we'll be right back are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area including the surrounding st petersburg tampa and clear water markets tiger real estate llc is a firm that has extensive experience in the tampa bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the tampa bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and 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funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor fund services llc this program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz welcome back folks we get the s and p is negative by 13 right now you have tesla basically trading flat right now another interesting story out here and this is why folks uh people may follow elon uh tesla makes the pitch to turn texas homes into virtual power plants the pilot project had 64 homes with rooftop solar and powerwall batteries and basically what happens is uh the home batteries can be quickly tapped to reduce stress on the state grid they have to go to what is the name of it the texas where we are isn't here um if the electric reliability council of texas approves it a residential program we'll see how that plays out in oil rich texas uh but yeah it was pretty interesting to see what the future could be there's no reason why living in florida folks it's like sonny every single day uh houses around my neighborhood solar panels were in an ideal situation and it would seem to make sense that you could just be powering your home have the backups tied to the grid um and get in there so we'll see how that plays out but that's the type of stuff that attracts human capital to follow elon i'm sure all right you want to talk about a loss in capital tiger global 52 percent is what they're down 14.2 percent last month but they are down 52 percent this year when you ask yourself how these companies make big returns folks uh they've been in a bull market for 14 years especially in technology and you're seeing how that can go bad real quick when things start to turn south and they have a lot of private companies they were talking about in here so what do they say here um substantial mark downs in private assets and they even got to the point as the value of the public holdings plummeted tigers exposure to illiquid venture capital bets compromised too much of its portfolio leading the firm to tell investors in its hedging long only funds that if they wish to redeem their private investments will be placed in a separate account that will be cashed out at a later date so the reducing fees across the board um but a lot of companies in trouble not able to make money in this in this market right now after things turn so quickly all right let's jump around as i mentioned some of the companies with earnings tonight we have three good ones we have crowd strike coming out with their numbers crowd strike catching a bit ahead of their numbers up three percent right now we take a look at the weekly this thing bounces right at the six one eight you're up to 298 for a high you trade all the way back down remarkably to a low of 130 since then we're up 36 bucks uh i was talking about this earlier right it's nice to see the six one eight you're kind of back to that area of consolidation that we had in late 2020 but the one thing that's rough going into earnings is that you are up let me back this up a little bit further yeah i mean you're up folks 30 dollars from where this equity was trading trading days is that five or six trading days ago boy that's a tough one when you're looking for upside or downside they're going to have some volatility priced in there you go $20 priced in for the move this week uh basically through tomorrow $20 let's see when you talk about the weekly yeah $20 and 79 cents is the implied volatility through expiration tomorrow for crowd strike they'll be out with their numbers and as i said way off of the highs but we're up about 30 37 dollars just recently off of their lows okay what else do we get we got lulu lemon out with their numbers that's always a fan favorite lulu about a 10 percent move priced into their earnings you're trading at 290 you have about a 31 dollar move priced into the options that expire tomorrow after the close i mean lulu we just traded up 40 from where this thing was trading at a week ago let's put this thing on a three-year weekly for some context here now the one nice thing about here is the 618 also lines up with the pre-covid high which is kind of cool right so you bounce off that level of 250 we're trading at 290 right now you're up by 110 for lulu and as i mentioned about a 30 or 31 dollar move priced into their earnings after the bell tonight and the other rounding out the top three you could say and we have more than that but the top three restoration hardware makes it well below the 618 this thing did come right back down to pre-covid levels though you came into covid at a price point with a high of 256 we actually traded up to a high of 243 in 2019 you make it down to a low of 236 just last week and since uh is that 236 yes it is 236 you're up 50 bucks since then look at that thing remarkable some of the moves we've had yeah so there it is you're up 50 dollars you're up over 20 percent on this equity on that bounce now the market bounced tremendously too we had quite a run coming into Memorial Day weekend uh 50 dollars on a 236 dollar equity and to jump over to their move 30 dollar move as well restoration hardware looking for their numbers so you got lulu i mean interesting right look at these they're almost trading at the exact same price with the exact same move lulu and restoration hardware are both trading around $290 restoration hardware's at 287 and both of them have about a 10 percent move priced in the earnings and as i mentioned crowd strike trading at 166 you're looking at about 12 to 13 percent move implied for their earnings after the belt tonight we also get a sauna and a couple other companies as well uh what do we get yeah clear sign some sorrow but none too notable as crowd strike lulu lemon restoration hardware here's the kicker about playing an earnings event tonight what's pretty cool is that if you're selling volatility and you are trading options for a company with their earnings event tonight you're also paying for the volatility premium in that equity for the non-farm payroll number tomorrow so if you're trading company like crowd strike they're going to be a growth company right if you're trading a company um any of these companies could be hit in terms of if we could get a surprise one way or or the other on the jobs number somehow that sometimes that can go against you right maybe you go bullish the stock overnight for their earnings you are accurate the stock trades higher and then the market sells off tomorrow because you got to make it through the non-farm payroll number that and you know what's so crazy about this is is that i was going to say disappoints right but maybe if it disappoints the market's going to like that because that means the fed's going to like that because the fed's slowing down the economy so they won't have to hike as much whatever the point there's volatility to come on an earnings event there's volatility to come on a non-farm payroll number tomorrow 8 30 options do not trade overnight so if you're in any of these equities with earnings tonight if you're in any options you can't get out on that news event at 8 30 in the morning tomorrow until options open at 9 30 in the morning and i imagine that's going to change at some point right i mean that's kind of some of the stuff that's pretty cool about maybe you know financial tech fintech there's no reason why options can't trade all the time i know that there's probably fundamental reasons in that market right now in terms of providing liquidity providing clearing and the likes but it's only a matter of time because there is no reason why options cannot be trading all the time now yes when you're getting huge moves and options you know you're getting earnings events moving maybe that market has to dry up because you're not market makers aren't quite sure where to put a bid and an offer or how wide that bid offer spread has to be to be able to make a market without putting too much risk in play but there's no reason why options don't trade overnight there's no reason why everything doesn't trade 24 7 that's what crypto trades and that's probably where everything's going and that's why some of the applications of even NFTs if crypto in the financial tech space could prove promising when you look at the ability to trade some of those 24 7 just like crypto does i mean think about it it's so rudimentary right but an NFT is something that you can non-fungible token well maybe tf and n issues 100 NFTs which all represent 1 ownership in the company and then what are they doing those NFTs are being traded on the blockchain 24 7 that would be akin to tf and n ownership shares being traded 24 7 365 and that's somebody who understands nothing to do with crypto just saying i can i see how that might be able to play out stay tuned folks we'll be right back to finish up the show sharpening your 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Microsoft's clawing back some of those losses we're only down five dollars right now we're down 1.8 percent Microsoft was below 16262 they had a 261 handle just like that you pop six dollars on the price of Microsoft shares Nasdaq 100 actually positive right now by about five points as we chop around 12,051 you're talking about yields right now 2.94 2.935 to be exact as we inch towards 3% yet again seems like that's a number nice round number right maybe the market that's where it's comfortable chopping around for a bit as we get a fed meeting coming up I believe yeah June 14th and 15th so we get non-farm payrolls this week and just like that we come back next week and you're going to be talking about waiting for the Fed June 14th and 15th coming out with probably a hike and we'll see what they have to say they're going to give things a few months at this pace and then we'll see where they go from there depending on this economy some of that may have to do with what happens tomorrow where's wage data and where's the jobs after a little bit of a miss on the ADP but as I mentioned prior it's interesting that sometimes you you don't even know what the market's going to do with what type of number as in it used to be that if the economy is growing and we have robust jobs that the market likes that but in this environment where so much is up in the air with the feds course of rate hikes that if the market is still running too hot and inflation I should say then that's going to be a problem and so the market almost is going to like to see moderated deceleration just not too much it's a very very sweet spot that they have to find without too much wiggle room in terms of don't grow too much but grow but don't grow too much so that wages can come down right and inflation can come down and growth can come down from where it was but don't come down too much we'll see we'll find out tomorrow and we'll finish it up real quick home prices us for sale homes rise for first time since 2019 real.com says be interesting to see how this one plays out folks I imagine there's a pullback coming in this market Tampa up something like 35 percent year over year so you're buying a 300 000 house last year at 3.2 this year you're buying a 400 000 house at 5.3 that's a tough one thanks for starting your day folks market back to negative action Basil's up next live programming all day have a great Thursday everybody building