 Hey everyone, this is Dan with another episode of my Moderna and BioNTech videos. The prices of Moderna and BioNTech have increased a lot in the last few days. Some people are saying that Moderna and BioNTech are looking more and more like Tesla. I actually did a comparison among the three stocks and found something very interesting. Let's get into the details. First let me review my price target from my last video that was published on July 29. At that time I set Moderna to be at $360BioNTech at $330B at the end of October 2021. On that day Moderna closed at $345BioNTech at $312BioNTech and certainly the prices moved a lot closer to my target actually already exceeded my target. As of yesterday, Moderna was at $386BioNTech and BioNTech was at $351BioNTech and this morning Moderna went up even more and same with BioNTech. Then yesterday around noontime I increased the target from Moderna to $400BioNTech to $370BioNTech. Am I going to set new targets for these two stocks in light of the Tesla phenomenon? I will explain more. Let's look at this chart. This is a chart that nobody has done before. None of the stock analysts. What I did was that back in January I predicted that the price trajectory of Moderna and BioNTech will follow the trajectory of two very well-known pharmaceutical companies and they are Regeneron and MGen. I predicted that the trajectory will follow this shape which is based on the number of days after the FDA approval of the blockbuster drugs of these companies. Back in January Moderna and BioNTech were right at this point pretty much down on the bottom. Since then it has gone up to this point and looks like my prediction is still pretty much true and if the prices continue to follow this trajectory within about 15 months the prices of Moderna and BioNTech will at least double or probably even triple. And that's certainly a very exciting possibility. At this point if you are interested in what I've been saying I'd like to encourage you to click the like subscribe and notification button so that you'll be notified when I publish my next video and it will also encourage me to make more videos like this in the future. Thank you very much. Let's continue. Let's talk about a Tesla phenomenon. If you look at the chart for Moderna this is the weekly chart for the last two years. Certainly the price has been going up and up and it's gone parabolic in the last few days. If you look at the relative strength ratio it's at 87 extremely high. Typically at this level you would say that the stock is overboard but this is Moderna and it's not an ordinary stock. Same with BioNTech it's been going up and up gone parabolic in the last few days and the RSI is 86 almost as high as Moderna. And as of this morning they've gone in the highest RSI at this point is probably closer to 90. Now if you look at the general market the ETF SPY reflecting the price movement of the S&P 500 the highest it has ever been for RSI in the last two years was 79 and that was right before the pandemic crash and then the price after that crashed about 30 percent. Certainly it never went as high as where Moderna and BioNTech are today. How about Tesla? Here's Tesla. In the last two years the RSI for Tesla went as high as 94 and then subsequently that it went to 84 before this dip which is relatively small and then it went to 83 before this drop which caused Tesla to lose about 30 percent of its value. Therefore it is not going to be surprising if in the next few days we see a drop from Moderna and BioNTech. But for now as long as it's still going up I'm setting my trailing stop limit orders so I'm enjoying the ride as long as it's still going up and hopefully the limit orders will trigger at the right moment to protect me from a potential 30 percent drop or more. Now if you say from a fundamental perspective are Moderna and BioNTech any better or worse than Tesla I looked at the P ratios quickly. Of course all three companies have been losing money for quite a while and then they only started to make money in the last few quarters therefore it's not easy to calculate their price or earning ratios. I used the latest quarter for Moderna, BioNTech and Tesla and then look at the current market cap and based on that I calculated this version of the P ratio and it turned out that Moderna is at only 34, BioNTech only 20 whereas Tesla 156. From these numbers I would say that Moderna and BioNTech are probably on even more solid foodings than Tesla and of course Moderna and BioNTech some say have a relatively short runway because they are really just benefiting from the COVID vaccine but then of course Moderna has a very strong drug pipeline. BioNTech the pipeline is not as strong as Moderna but I'm pretty sure they will come up with something really good and the new drugs will be generating good revenues for them within the next two three years. So I'm very very bullish on Moderna and BioNTech at this point. All the discussions about a Tesla phenomenon I think that's a distinct possibility and that's why it has influenced the way I've evaluated Moderna and BioNTech. I'll talk a little bit more about that in the next few minutes. At this point I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor. I share my stock trading strategies and analyses for educational purpose only. If you want to sell by stocks you should make your own decisions and you should definitely consult with their financial advisors before you do so. Let's continue. Let's look at some of the important recent events. On August 3rd that was yesterday Moderna received the FDA fast-track destination for one of the new products they're developing which is a vaccine to help people against the RSV virus. This virus particularly affects the infant and older adult and could lead to death if it's not properly prevented or treated and currently this vaccine is in phase one study with this fast-track destination I would say probably it would get at least the interim approval hopefully within a couple years because it took Moderna only one year to fast-track from phase one to interim approval so I would say two years is probably a very conservative very reasonable timeframe for this RSV vaccine. Once that's approved by FDA of course then it will generate a steady revenue stream for Moderna. President Joe Biden said yesterday that US has already delivered 110 million vaccine doses to 65 countries by way of donation overall based on the World Health Organization 11 billion vaccines will be needed to vaccinate 70% of the world population that's why there's still a huge demand out there for more and more COVID vaccines and I explained in my previous videos that comparing with all the other vaccines the BioNTech vaccine and Moderna vaccine are the most effective ones against the new variants especially the Delta variant that's why a lot of new orders are converging to Moderna and BioNTech and they are conquering a lot of market shares from the other vaccine makers and that's great news for investors for BioNTech and Moderna. This is a list of the various vaccines already donated by US I won't go through each item basically the US has been donating millions and millions of doses of BioNTech and Moderna vaccine so US is not trying to pinch penny US is not trying to buy any cheaper vaccines for donation they are going for the best and that's good business for both companies. The FDA is expected to give full approval to the Pfizer vaccine by Labor Day and similarly it'll be the same for Moderna. Recently Taiwan ordered 36 million Moderna vaccine doses and you probably already heard that Thailand also ordered Pfizer vaccine same with UAE and Bahrain basically at this point many countries are ordering the best vaccines available which are BioNTech and Moderna instead of going for the less expensive vaccines because of the consideration of effectiveness against the new variants and that's again good business for Moderna and BioNTech. As of August 1 it was reported that Pfizer and Moderna have actually increased their prices for the vaccine sold to the EU and that's great news because that means Moderna and BioNTech really have the pricing power at this point because of the effectiveness of their vaccines. We have some other recent developments for example China plan to use the BioNTech vaccine as a booster shot to complement the vaccines developed by China UAE and Bahrain they are offering Pfizer BioNTech as booster shots and United States already bought additional 200 million doses of BioNTech vaccines the US government also bought 200 million more doses of Moderna vaccine and of course as of July 21 Moderna joined the S&P 500 index which caused a major jump in stock price for Moderna and as of July 15 it was reported that the FDA expects to approve COVID vaccines for kids under 12 years old by mid-winter. Let's look at the analyst opinions I'm comparing the analyst opinions today with the opinions back about a month ago on July 8 2021 I've highlighted the changes with yellow background first of all yesterday's closing price was 386 for Moderna my target was 360 my new target is TPD I'll talk about that in the next few minutes Yahoo has not changed anything lose Nevalier the same rating overall an A rating which is very favorable tip ranks are calm still a moderate buy rating and they increase the high target from 246 to 353 increase the average target from 192 to 218 and keeping the low target at 100 and CN money increased the high target from 246 to 353 that's quite a jump it's quite a jump also for tip ranks calm do look at BioNTech yesterday closing price was 351 Yahoo same buy rating increased the high target from 238 to 255 average target also increased from 194 to 200 low target from 107 to 108 small increases tip ranks calm actually they downgraded BioNTech from moderate buy to hold but the high target went from 240 to 400 quite a jump and the average target went from 184 to 217 and then CN money keeping the whole rating the high target went from 238 to 400 and the medium target 199 to 201 overall we see the increases in targets for both Moderna and BioNTech let's look at my own valuation of the companies this is the chart I showed in the video that I published on July 29 in that video I came to the conclusion of a new target of $370 a share to be achieved by the end of October 2021 and I mentioned that I use a conservative number for the total number of doses produced for 2022 I used two billion doses when a company said they're planning for three billion doses and the net margin I use 33% whereas a quarterly report was pointing something towards more like 50% or higher so today what I'm going to do is I'm going to revise some of these assumptions first of all I will increase my net margin from 33 to 50% why that's because based on the most recent quality earnings reports Moderna has achieved a net margin ratio of actually 63% whereas BioNTech has a net margin ratio of 55% so I'm plugging in the 50% still conservative compared to the actual net margins also I increased the number of doses from two billion to three billion for 2022 and also increased a little bit the number of doses 2021 and 2023 I adjusted the prices based on the pricing strength of Moderna and from these new numbers I arrived at the following stock prices for 2021 22 and 23 and from this range I decided to select the price of 250 for my new target for now to be achieved by the end of October 2021 as you can see 450 is a very low number compared to this range and that's why it is still a very conservative number as the price gets higher I will most likely revise my target upwards so stay tuned to my Twitter messages and I will update you as I revise my targets either I will publish a new video or I will send a Twitter message to alert my subscribers let's look at BioNTech this is what I showed in my July 29th video and I came to the conclusion of $330 for new target back then today similar to what I did with Moderna I'm revising some of the assumptions with the net margin assumption of 50% and 2022 production of four billion doses as well as increase in doses for 2021 and 2023 and the new prices that I assume I arrive at the following prices for 2021 2022 and 2023 and from this price range I decided to set a new target of $420 share to be achieved by the end of October 2021 again a surprise goes up I will most likely revise my target upwards let me recap my target Moderna at 450 BioNTech and 420 to be achieved by the end of October 2021 if you compare my new targets to the targets set by the analysts you can see that from Moderna my target being 450 is higher than everybody's targets with BioNTech 430 it's also higher than everybody's targets do I worry about it no I don't worry about it because this would not be the first time that I'm ahead of the professional analysts I'm confident about my targets because I've done the calculations I've studied it I've done the research I think these two targets are going to be imminently achievable so if you already bought Moderna and BioNTech just enjoy the ride I'd like to remind you to subscribe to my Twitter account which is d-a-n market l in addition to subscribing to my youtube channel for example yesterday I tweeted my subscriber saying that I'm raising my target from Moderna to 400 BioNTech to 370 of course today I raised the targets even more and on July 29th I tweeted that I bought additional shares of Moderna and BioNTech I'd like to remind you to click the like subscribe and notification button if you like what you've seen so far as usual I will very much welcome your comments suggestions and questions thank you very much this wraps up my video for now I will chat with you again in the next few days in the meanwhile I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments have a wonderful day