 Yn ystod y Llywodraeth ym Mhwyloedd Plynyddiol i'r Gweithio Gyda Slywyr ac mae'r Ceynwys Pôl, Llywodraeth, a'r Eidinburr Dynol. Mae'r cymdeithasol yn ymgyrch, felly mae'r cymdeithasol yn y Llywodraeth Cymru yn ymgyrch, fewn i'r gyfan eu bynnag yn ffrind o'r Plynydd, a ffrind i'r pethau yn Brydget Llaffan. Felly, maen nhw'n cymdeithasol am ddysgu, a'r unad deishfyrdd neu ddysgu ein bod yn Gweithio Fylonedd. Mae'n gweithio ethai cymdeithasol ym laid i gymryd i'w llunio a phobl yn ddechrau, a'r eir fryan, ein cynyddiol o Hyllwyr dylun i 2011. Roedd gennych rwy'r hyffredig yn amlwg mwyaf i wneud, yn ôl maen nhw ein er ffordd sefydliadau robi y Hyfrant, yn ymlaen i ddweud yr ysgrifennu a dweud ar gyfrifion yng nghymru o Computedur Eurupiai, ac ym ni'n fwy gweithio ymlaen i'n gwybodaeth nifer. Felly, roeddwyd yn ymlaen i'r Emanuel Pfizer- Comparedt. OK, thank you very much for the invitation. That's my first time here and I'm delighted. OK, so I'm going to talk about the elections in France but looking more at the impact it will have in Europe and on Ireland. Unlike what Robert said, I am going to have a quick look at the results because some elements are, I think, quite striking, then I'll move quickly on to the issues of Europe and Ireland. Dwi'n gilydd y tro cyflym yn ystod y llwyddoedd, y ffeinwch lefn o'r rhan o'r qunod y 5th Ym photos er oed 57,5. Bydd y llwyddoedd yn gweithio oes o'r mewn i chi i siwr yn ddachatwch a'r gweithio cynlluniau cyfyllfaeth ac mae'n byddaf ei hwn o'r gwbl yn gweithio, a'r gwbl yn dda'i gynnal o'r rhan o'r지는 ydyn nhw'r eistedd a ddechrau yng Nghymru ac y dyn nhw'n sefydlu'n我的iau � the next five years. I of course I have been working on it since the last model, on the whole majority independently of their model which is very important in face of the resignation of this morning and yesterday evening. There was a question about the under-performance of the Republic en March. a bod ydych chi'n gweld y cyfroedd, mae'n ddweud yw'r 410 o 430 cyfroedd. Felly mae'n fawr, y Rhyfblu Cymru nid yn ddigonol 15 ymlaen yw'r wych, felly mae'n ddweud ychydig ymlaen. A fyddwn ni'n gweithio yma yn cyfroedd. Y cyfroedd yma sydd yn cyfroedd o'r Rhyfblu Cymru, neu o'r Ffranc Sans-Sou-Mise, If people want to mobilise, they go out and vote, if not, obviously there's always this idea that the opposition will be in the streets and somewhere else than in the representation, the national representation. So we've seen the collapse of the traditional forces that Robert explained really well, we're now facing divisions among the republicans between the constructivists and the obstructionists like the Laurent-Vauquet and the Tyri Soler, and we have a PS industry who probably in two years time won't be talking about the PS any more. The France Assumies did perform quite well and kind of consolidated their result from the presidential election. The National Front again was projected to get between three and five seats, achieved eight plus one because there's La Ligue du Sud. So you have about nine extreme right wing MPs. Marie Le Pen, who mustn't be very good at maths, is thinking she's going to get a political grouping, but you need 15 members, so I don't know where she's getting the extra six. But this is the kind of general kind of scene for our National Assembly, and as you see the level of participation there going down in the last three presidential elections. Now what does it mean? There has been some change between the first and the second round with some local anchoring actually working to reverse the La République en Marche tsunami that was anticipated and that worked more directly for males from the Les Républicains. They tended to do better, but overall the message is French people are giving cautious chance to Macron. It also as Robert indicated showed the resilience and the force of our institutional system, like when you have a president that's elected from a party, there will be a majority automatically elected from the same party when the elections are held so close together. I tried to translate, but since I must have a lot of Francophones, I'll say it as well in French. Les Républicains campaigned on this idea first of cohabitation, and then when they realized this is not actually catching, they went on covoiturage. So it's my cohabitation and carpooling, but it doesn't rhyme in English, or it doesn't sound as good. And the covoiturage might work for some, as I said Thierry Soler now is after setting up his political grouping, whether he might enter government is another question, but there will be a part of the Les Républicains supporting Macron anyway. But it's a presidency under surveillance from the 57.5% of people who didn't go out to vote and from others who voted against Macron. So what kind of a profile for the National Assembly, we have 75% of renewal of faces in the National Assembly. It's not only because of Les Républicains March that the dual mandate legislation also pushed your standard mainstream parties to present new candidates, because a lot of the outgoing MPs decided to retreat on their local mandate. So we have 434 out of 577 new MPs, which is quite striking. And even more striking, 38.6% of women, which is an utter record coming from 26.9% before. Les Républicains March presented 47% of female candidates, nearly parity. And 223 women were elected across all the range of political parties. Obviously we have quotas, you know, from the legislation of 2000. And parties have to pay financial penalties if they don't comply with the number of candidates they put out. And traditionally Les Républicains are particularly bad at it. They've improved a little bit. But what was important is that there was no incumbents from Les Républicains March. So you had less men, as Rainbow Murray said, hogging posts and kind of holding onto posts for dear life. So it was easier to have more women put forward. OK. I want to focus a little bit on populism, because I didn't mention the Front National, really. I want to make a link with the 57.5% of people who didn't go out to vote, as well as la France Insoumise. France is really fractured in two, and it was very visible during the presidential election when you looked at the map of who voted for who. And it's fractured between the France of the Periphery and the France of the Metropolis. And it's really French sociologists that has theorised that. So basically Macron has captured the France of the Metropolis. The France that is optimistic, doing well, seeing its future in Europe in a globalised world that thinks that our opportunities come from an open France. And then the France of the Periphery are the ones that are left behind. The ones that have suffered from, you know, deindustrialisation. The ones that have seen their public services closed down, the local hospital closing down, the police station, the post office, et cetera. And they don't see their future in a globalised world. They actually think that the European Union is a threat to their future. So you can say a France of the pessimists versus a France of the optimists. I don't know, but there's definitely a divide, and this is the biggest challenge that Macron has got to face now, to try and reconcile those two frances that are very much at odds with each other. Mooda and Kat Vasser have got this saying that populism has become an illiberal democratic response to undemocratic liberalism. On democratic liberalism, for me, brings us back to people not feeling hurt. Feeling, okay, we're going with this neoliberal economy, et cetera, or economic policy, but it's not listening to our concerns. We are not moving along with, we're not on the train to a better future. And this is why I would say that there are three things which will see populism retreat in France. First, economic results. Macron has got to deliver, and it's not a surprise that he focused on his labour law through ordinance at the very start. He's got to reduce the level of mass unemployment. As we were saying over lunch, he's in a good trend. He's at the start of a positive economic cycle, even though interest rates are going back up. So our debt will be more expensive to repay. But unemployment is going in the right direction. Economic growth was confirmed by Lindsay at 1.6 for this year, 1.6%. He's got the tools, or the right economic indicators for him. He has to reduce the number of scandals involving the political elite. This is not a good start to his presidency. But he's handling it relatively well. Obviously it's not a good thing that the minister who is in charge of passing the legislation for moralisation of public life had to resign. But still, this is to reconnect and to have this feeling of trust in our political elite. We need to cut out the number of scandals that are emerging. Finally, give the people the feeling that they are heard. This is what Macron, I think, if there's one word for me that symbolises Macron's pedagogy. The crucial event, but it wasn't the only one, was what he did with the whirlpool company that was about to close. Marine Le Pen, he was meeting the trade unionists in the Chamber of Commerce. Marine Le Pen decided to get crash his gig and to go on the car park to take selfies with the workers, you know, tweet, etc. Use social media. What did he do? He left the Chamber of Commerce. He went there. He was booed. He took an hour and a half away from the journalists to speak face to face with those trade unionists. And he left shaking hands. Being told were not really fully convinced, but earning that respect. And this is what he did in the debate between the two rounds as well. He killed Marine Le Pen not only because she was incompetent, but just because he explained, you know, point by point, never losing his composure, always being clear, explaining that SFR isn't all stuff, you know, and just making, you know, being always very clear in his communication. Now, what does it mean for France and Europe? We're at the start of a period of significant uncertainty. Robert has highlighted it when it comes to the party system. Macron has all the levers to carry out the reforms he outlined very clearly during his campaign. We're back to pedagogy. Macron, unlike I think all the former president that I can think of, has announced his reforms in advance of getting into position. Even the difficult ones. So there's no surprise. Nobody can turn around and say, oh, you're going through ordinance. Oh, you're touching Labour law. No, no, all this was clearly announced. So this is very important. He is also announced very clearly that he's in favour of a relaunch of European integration through a rekindling of the Franco-German partnership, which has always been at the heart of European construction. But that is very important. And we are in a climate of Germanophobia, be it Melanchon or be it Le Pen, they've both said, well, it's Merkel who's ruling France, really. So again, a very courageous move, but very clear from the start. And very importantly, because we're France, our international status on the international scene is very important. We've gone through years of French bashing, being criticized in international magazines and newspapers and New York Times, et cetera. And you saw that Macron spent his first month putting us on the map in a very positive way, replying to Trump in English, nobody had ever done that, using very cleverly his make America great again, to make the planet great again. But being very firm with Putin as well, like in a press conference saying, these are not journalists, they were just used for propaganda. So that made French people, I think, very proud and it is important for French people as well. But he needs credibility and he knows that as well. He's announced that in advance and he did say that the only way he could get leeway in reforming Europe, and I'm going to come to that, is by carrying out structural reforms in France, by finally getting France not to breach the stability and growth pact, which would be a first. And he's put key ministers in the financial and the public expenditure posts, who are from the republicans and are considered very highly in Germany, and in particular Le Maire is Germanophone, which helps. Okay, so what's Macron's vision for Europe? There are three aspects. First, a Franco-German engine of integration. Merkel, who earlier on, at the very start of the presidential campaign, was against any treaty change. She was against this idea of a budget for the eurozone. Scheuble is on the same line. Has now come out saying, minister for finance of the eurozone, eurozone budget, economic governance, I can imagine it all if the conditions are right. So that is giving a huge boost to Macron as well. He wants a more social Europe. It will have an impact on Ireland. I'm going to discuss that at the very end, but he wants a more social Europe and he wants to move on European defence with European headquarters, the creation of the European Security Council. So he has very clear ideas when it comes to Europe. Der Spiegel, about the week after he was elected, did their front cover with a picture of him and it was the title was a very expensive friend. Inside you had an interview with Scheuble, where Scheuble very clearly was like, we like all of his ideas, we're not going to spend a penny. So we're not going with his investment idea, et cetera, but the structural reforms and complying with the SGP, yes. But you know the rest? No. So we were discussing whether Scheuble could be on his way out if Merkel is re-elected. On the 24th of September, we have German parliamentary elections. A few months ago, the SPD looked like they were in contention today much less. So we'll see. But obviously, Sigmar Gabriel would be a better kind of friend to Macron than Scheuble. And Macron represents, I mean, we've all heard across Europe the sigh of relief when he was elected, but not only because he was elected against Le Pen, I think he is a response by the centre to populism and Euroscepticism. He is the only candidate and elected president that I can think of who did all of his rallies getting European flags waived together with French flags. And from the start, pitched his campaign on a European platform. I have never seen that. And I did a conference recently and I was asked, was it luck that he picked that topic? No, it wasn't luck. I mean, it was very, very courageous and very uncool to actually, if you look at the past presidential campaigns, there was no political gain in picking the European integration as a topic to campaign. And everything was done as we call the permissive consensus, like this kind of let's all be in agreement and not discuss it and rush it onto the carpet and carry on as we've done so far. When you think of 2005, 55% of the French people rejected the European constitutional treaty. 2007, Sarkozy is elected, put together the Lisbon Treaty, which is a mini version of the European constitutional treaty. And that didn't play well with the French. So Macron picked a topic that was difficult and stuck with it. Now I'm just going to conclude with that. What does it mean for Ireland? Now Macron has met with Theresa May a few times already. He's firm on Brexit. He's definitely on the German side. The EU 27 are very united anyway, but he's clear that we're negotiated the divorce arrangements first and then we'll discuss the trade agreements. But we're not mixing the two. There's no wedge kind of driven in this unity of the EU 27. He's also doing it. I think he's doing it because he's convinced of it, but he's also doing it because he needs the Germans on his side to carry out all the reforms that I mentioned, and he wants this more social Europe to take form. So talking about this more social Europe, he is well aware that Europe has been regarded as a problem rather than the solution. And he is also aware that even though he got an overall majority, even though he got elected comfortably, this is not the end of your scepticism in France. So he wants to demonstrate that Europe is there to improve the quality of life of citizens, and isn't there only for the benefit of multinationals. Therefore, in his manifesto specifically, you have a couple of lines about banning or fighting against arrangements between states and multinationals. And there is a specific mention of the apple ruling in Ireland. So this is something that he's repeated a few times, and that he wants, like for Stagger, he really wants to see that multinationals are there to contribute their share for the benefit of investments for the European citizens. This idea of a more European, a more social Europe. I'm going to mention Bridget's article a few weeks ago in the Irish Times, which was called Ireland, may have to sacrifice sacred cows to survive Brexit. One of the sacred cows being the corporate tax, obviously not changing the 12.5%, but needing a tax coach that doesn't undermine other countries, she highlights how the outcome of the apple tax ruling or the apple ruling is going to be crucial. And again, making sure that those multinationals pay the level of tax that they should pay. Obviously, everybody kind of watched the Spanish company's case, it's Santander Bank, Santusa and Autogrill, that were in a similar kind of situation, and the ruling on the selectivity criteria was very important. So we'll see how all this plays out. But what Macron wants is a eurozone budget, and only countries that comply with the fiscal and social rules set for that eurozone budget, i.e. harmonised, not homogeneous, but harmonised fiscal and social rules will have access to the eurozone budget. And this is where I would be worried about Ireland, because obviously the harmonisation won't be at 12.5%. It will probably be closer to 25%, between 20 and 25%. And it made me think of the Ymker White Paper on the future of Europe with his five scenarios, and Macron several times in his manifesto, and in a few of his speeches mentioned this idea of those who want to do more do more. Now, there are two arguments here. In a situation of Brexit, everybody will be very careful about not breaking up Europe and not having a few countries moving further towards integration with this image of leaving others behind. But there are kind of seeds for worry, I think, in terms of fiscal and social harmonisation that Macron would like to see. And as much as Germany wasn't in favour of it, now Germany knows that with the level of your skepticism in Europe, the level of populism, it has to make some effort and some gesture after a brutal economic crisis and show some kind of goodwill.