 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the TFNN Bull Bear Trading Hour. Every trading day, live at 10 a.m. Eastern. Call now toll free at 877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. The TFNN Bull Bear Trading Hour. Now, Tommy and Tommy O'Brien. Welcome folks, appreciate you growlin' and prowlin' us out here, we uh... We get a positive market, it's comin' up. We get a positive market. But we get a positive market, we get higher oil, that's for sure, man. Um, come on, computer. Bruins lost. The Bruins did not do so well last night. That's St. Louis goalie, the whole team. Pretty amazing. Quite a performance for sure. Let's take a look at this market, so we get the Dow, sorry, we get the Dow industry is up 50, we get the Nasdaq up 40, S&P's up seven and a half. Gold contract up $3.90 trading at $13.40 an ounce. We have Silver up five cents, $14.81 an ounce. Light Sweet Crude up a buck 46. That's not holdin' either, that was up 210 earlier. 52.60 a barrel, notes and bonds. You get the 10-year note, up five ticks, 1.2704, the 30-year, up a half a point. 14.6, 1.5401, and King Dollar, King Dollar 36, trading at 97. The yen is at 108 and a half. The pound is at 112, and the, no, the year is at 112, sorry, and the pound's at 126. There we go. IPhone number's 8779276648. Let's go over to our man, Mr. Kevin Hinks at TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim. And don't forget, folks, if you haven't test driven yet, the Thinkorswim platform, outstanding platform, really easy to get up and going inside this platform. You go to TFNN, hit that banner, bring it up, it'll allow you to trade with paper money. You can follow Kevin's team every trading day. You wanna understand options, option strategies, futures, all the above, great program, 11 to 12, Eastern Standard Time. Kevin Hinks, what's going on? Good morning, Tom, good morning, Tommy. How we doing? Doing good, man. Well, we're in, we're in mourning, actually. I know, we don't know how to, we know how to cope when we lose a championship, Kevin. That doesn't happen often. I'll tell you what. Here's what, I'm gonna keep you this in a nutshell. I was cheering for the team that had never won a Stanley Cup. Yeah, no, if I didn't have a horse in the race, I would have been doing the same thing. No, exactly. Exactly, I got you. I get your allegiance, you know, to the motherland, but I was cheering for the team that had never won a Stanley Cup before. No, it was impressive. It was, it was, it was, it was, it was, it was. There was no doubt. There was no doubt about it. For God's sake, you guys, you blasted natives, have the Patriots, you have the Red Sox, easy, easy over there. You guys are getting a little greedy. Greed? What's he, going Gekko. Greed is good. Just give me all those, give me all those championships. Give me them all. No, that's quite a game. It feels like I'll be cheering for the Raptors when they play, because I don't have to win that first. And I will too, so I got you there, man. And I love Golden State, you know, I love Steph Curry, but I want to see that, that city, that underdog, that story for the same reason, for sure. Because it was, there's no doubt, folks, if you saw the game, it was really impressive watching, you know, in St. Louis, they had two arenas totally filled and seen it, because we know that joy. You know, it's a good, it's a cool thing. And the impressive thing, and here's what the young people on Iowa are talking about today, about the Stanley Cup. St. Louis went 10 and three on the road in the Stanley Cup playoff. That's impressive. It is, it really is. So then they went on the road like that. You know, Kevin, the good news is, is that an Irish guy got the most valuable playoff. You know, he's from the tribe, absolutely, he's from our tribe, so we feel good about that. Totally. You gotta love it. So what are you guys, what are you guys looking at? You know, this is gonna be, unfortunately, the fact that we're talking about sports is very indicative of where we are right now in this market. I know, I know. It's up, it's not very busy. Vicks is really remarkably hanging in there. You know, I think retail sales tomorrow morning will give us a little bit of a trade, but I think this day is gonna look like a Thursday in the summer. Yeah. And we're gonna kind of drift, you know. I mean, Restriction Hardware's a nice move. Lululemon's a nice move up there, earnings. You got a little something in Crudo, you got a little Geopolitics, all in all, though not a lot to get excited about in this market, not from a big perspective. So yeah, you know, I think that, frankly, that this Vicks is still up near 16 is a blessing for option sellers. Yeah, I got it. Okay, that's so cool. And you know, folks, when Tommy and I and Kevin were talking about that beyond meat, that's what he's talking about there, is that that's important to understand what type of strategy are you gonna use in a market like this, right? And I'll give you a little look into that. Restriction Hardware. Yes. Okay, their expected move yesterday was $15.60. Wow. Okay, pretty big moves, right? The 95 option straddle was traded about 1535. The 100 calls were trading about five and a half dollars. So this is a time, this is one of those events where, well, if it makes a big, if you're selling options and you lose money, who made money? Well, the move was bigger than the expected move. Therefore, buying those front expiration options, as long as you bought the right ones, are actually profitable. It moved bigger than that expected move. Right, right. So that's what you're playing here. I always tell people, you're playing, if you're playing the front week, the front expiration, what you're really playing is that move that's showing, because that's what the implied volatility is showing as an expected move. This time, in Restriction Hardware, you're a winner on that move. Yeah, I love that. You know, yesterday, Tom and I were looking at the, while we were looking at, on the Nadex platform, the option pricing, but it's really still the option premium. And it was interesting, before they came out with EIA numbers, they were putting some premium inside those futures inside the oil market. It was like, oh, this is gonna be interesting. And sure enough. And that was ahead of the EIA too, but a little bit more than usual. We thought, you know, the type of volatility oil's been getting, and I'm sure enough within 24 hours even. And yesterday, we got some action on that EIA too. No, it got it both ways, which is pretty amazing, man. You know, in terms of geopolitical events going on with oil, this is two months in a row, this has happened now. Yeah, right, very soon. So I would fully expect some type of, you know, a little, let's put it this way. The temperature is gonna rise in that area. And that footage is dramatic. I did, it's dramatic even just as a person, right? So that says, you know, it's, yeah. You know, if you haven't seen this, folks, not just what happened here, it just, the straight of humor is, humor, the straight of humor is, or moves. Yeah. Thank you. You want to actually go to Google and Google it because you can see how you can jam up things very quickly there. I mean, that's really small, you know, you can jam it up for a second. Just start blowing up oil chancers, that's gonna be a problem. Yeah, slightly, yeah. Slightly, there's no doubt about that. Yeah, they're, you know, like I said, this is that when you're trading futures, geopolitical events or events, things that can hurt supply lines, that's risk, right? That you'll always have to be trading for. Sure. Yeah, it even popped into my head. I said, man, oil's at like $50. That feels like this is priced, not for perfection, right? But pretty close, man. Oh yeah. It's in something, what's, you know, it's not, it's pretty close. Well, this gasoline went down seven and a half cents yesterday. I mean, you know, it's like, supply-wise, I guess we get plenty of it until we don't, right? Right, right. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, you know, and for traders, you know, it's hard to hold premium in the summer. And unless you get an event like this, would give you a reason maybe to get in there and stay along a little premium. But without that, it's hard to hold some of these and, you know, you're starting to see that. The VIX is gonna be under pressure. Now, like I said, I think it's held in there quite strongly. So, a lot to look at. I was looking at it for it to be further down. 1572, man, that's, that's, yeah. Listen, folks, right here, 45 minutes from now, outstanding program. If you wanna understand option, option strategies, futures, great program. Kevin, you have a great one, safe one. Have a great weekend, folks. And we look forward to speaking next Tuesday, Kevin. Always talking, great talking to you guys. Have a good day. You too, Kevin. Stay right there. Tommy and I are coming right back, folks. The Taz Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? As you begin your trading day, it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions. In order to make the best decision, the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks. 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The team at Taz has even put together a 12-part video series to walk you through every aspect of the Taz Profile Scanner, which you can find directly on the Taz Order page at TFNN.com. Sign up now for only $97 a month with a risk-free 30-day trial so you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. See for yourself how you can harness the full power of the Taz Profile Scanner by visiting the front page of TFNN.com today, and you'll find the Taz Profile Scanner under the Services section. Remember, with a 30-day money-back guarantee, you have nothing to lose. Don't let another day pass you by without trying out this amazing piece of software that will revolutionize how you look at the market and how you place trades. Sign up today. Steve Dahl and Tom O'Brien have just announced a special webinar on June 19th for all subscribers to the Taz Profile Scanner. Steve and Tom will break down the trade matrix, market breadth, heat grid, as well as the three-step process you can use with the Taz Profile Scanner to identify market movers and how to capitalize on that move. For all the details and to get started with the Taz Profile Scanner today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. With a 30-day money-back guarantee, you have nothing to risk. Go sign up today. TFNN has launched our brand new website. You can still visit us at the same TFNN.com URL, but when you do, you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation, whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions. We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options. Check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades. TFNN.com, educating investors. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648, internationally at 727-873-7618. Dow, Dow Industries are up 45, Nasdaq's up 34, S&Ps are up 7. We had our man, Mr. Basil Chapman, up yesterday last night doing a great webinar for everyone. We sure did, man. I was in there myself from 5 till 6.30, so we still have it up on the front page. Subscribers can gain immediate access. Basil's subscribers right now. An email went out to them early this morning, but they can jump over. This is a subscriber page. There's your archive webinar. There it is. Basil, what's this supposed to be? 90 minutes. He nails it, man, 90 minutes and four seconds. He's got it going, exactly. So that was last night's great webinar. Thanks for all that attended live and for the subscribers that's up there. But I encourage everybody, man, check it out. 30 days, you gain instant access to it. And as we mentioned before, you got a few other great webinars that Basil's archived in there for subscribers. And you can watch that as many times as you want. Gain access, the tide, talking about it. He really laid things out great, man. I was sitting there, I kicked my feet up, you know, watched the webinar. Great education. It was perfect, man. So if we take a look at what we have happened in the marketplace, the market folks bottom line what you did out here yesterday, you went lower price, you had lower, you had light volume. That basically sets up the bounce today. The real key is gonna be today, is that, okay, do you have lower volume today also? And then that's what that would be saying is that that would just build in cars for lower price. You know, looking at that chart, right? If you just looked at that chart and you had no idea of where the VIX has been at all, right? Right. Would you say, I bet it's somewhere around like 16? No. No. I would think that it's like at 12, 13, maybe 14, maybe 15. Because what Tommy's saying, we're right at the highs. I mean, you know, there is- What is the last big day that we've had to the downside? I mean, maybe I guess you could say on the 11th, we had to pull back for sure. But just like you're saying, I mean- They're buying insurance. And that's what that means, folks, okay? That the market is buying insurance. And so they're making a pay up for basic insurance. Yeah, and it was quite a May, right? But I mean, you're going back to now June 3rd that we've charged higher from 273 to 289. And you're still a VIX at that level. I know. I agree that Kevin, there's a lot of people out there that would are willing to accept that level of premium to give somebody some defined risk. Totally. And that's where you're at. If we go take a look at some of the higher volume equities out here this morning, we'll see whether you get any volume in this market. You have GE's up 19 cents. You got Twitter down at $1.60, Lululem is up five. Now, Lululem will pull that up. That hit an all-time high this morning. Crowdstrike, this is the right PO that is a rocket chip. Yes. Restoration hardware up $17. Now, that has, I think, a 25 or 30% shot position, too. So that's got a nice shot squeeze going. Yeah, well, 32.4%. And I was saying in the dent, it always said to you, yesterday, they don't even want to be called restoration hardware. I don't get it. Nobody's going to call them RH. And I would have embarrassed coming into their earnings. I was saying yesterday, it's just an interesting choice when you change the name to a company that nobody even knows. Even then, they're talking about restoration. But man, they crushed it. Earnings they beat, revenue they beat, and they guided their outlook up. And they sold it, though? Yeah, I mean, $1.21 to $1.11. Still up solid. We got a Lululemon. That one just pulled back a pretty, yeah. $182 to $176. I mean, that pulled back like half its gains versus restoration, not quite. And what Lululemon, too, is it's going to have the volume. It's taken this swing point out with volume. So it's like, OK, that's going to get higher price once again. It's pretty amazing what has happened with athletic clothes in general, right? Athletic. Athletic. Athletic. Athletic. And look at how they're growing. The United States, 16%, Canada, 10%, outside North America, 38%, monster number. Yes. $1.8 billion in 2015, $3.8. They're looking to do this year. And I wonder, there's $2 billion more in between the 65 days. I mean, check out so you get direct to consumer, right? I mean, one of these is their website type, their online presence versus just pushing it out to stores. Of course, that's bigger profit, right? I would imagine so. Still, they got to ship to every single person. I wonder how that's in the long run, it definitely should be no matter what. But 30% growth, man, and they're already almost at $1 billion of, I mean, that's staggering when you think about how many stores they have. I think we've all seen them in different places. And they're doing almost $1 out of $3. They're doing straight to consumers instead of their store. Natural gas. That's probably why it's been charging higher. Yeah. All right. Natural gas. Natural gas. That's right. So it's Thursday. It's 10.23. We get some volatility out here today. Yeah, we sure do, man. Backing this up a little bit. Look at that run. I mean, just going back to early, early yesterday. Wednesday morning, we're sitting at about 2.40. We trade down and touch through 235.5. We're trading just above that level. Maybe we'll get some contracts that might line up with 235 as a price point potentially here. They're going to 5s, right? So there we go. We haven't. So 235, you're going to have a penny head start to the upside, right? So you're going to be paying a little bit of money for the value that you have on the bullish spread. There's our bullish from 235 to 255. We're paying almost the full penny of intrinsic value. We're going to be paying about 4 ticks in premium. So you're looking at 14 on the bullish side. And it's going to be a pretty similar level of premium, maybe a little bit more, with the bid offer spread. So you're paying 6 or 20 bucks, two pennies. You already got a penny start to the head bullish side. So if you were even a little bit bullish, but not bad. Like you're saying, you need about two pennies of movement away from 235 to reach your break even and start getting some profits on either side. No, that's not a bad one. It's not a bad one. So they're not looking for a lot of movement here, folks. Because keeping in mind, right, if it expires at 236, which is, it was right next to it, right? You're getting $10 of value back. So this isn't like an out of the money complete, where you might lose 10 of the 20 if it expires where it's at. So realistically, your worst case scenario is you get a penny movement down. You're right to your max loss. So you do get a penny movement, but you get a little bit bullish scenario. The new ones, exact same price spreads. So now, instead of 14 on the bullish side, we're looking at about 17 for that extra hour. And on the bearish side, instead of 6, we're looking at about 7, so 23. So do you want to pay two pennies? You want to pay two and a half for noon? I'd like two and a half. Yeah, I do too. A half a penny for that extra hour. And let's see if they're going to give us an option to pay for 230. So 240 is going to be the price point that we'd have to choose. That really wouldn't work out too well. Right. I'll jump back to that for a second, though, because if you didn't want to have bullish and you just want to go bearish, that's not a bad setup. All right, and these are going to be the same. So let's say, because these little spreads have a bullish penny in it, right? But sometimes, what if you're just looking for it to crash, man? These are where I like these defined risks. Your cap is to 240, right? So you're capped out at losses, about four pennies above where you're at, which is nice. You're selling it a half a penny lower. Right? Yeah, not four ticks. And that's with the bid offer spread, which is remarkable that you're getting it. Right now in the market, you can sell it at 236. Well, if you want a trade that has defined risk of $44 to make 456, now the odds is ever hit 190 or as close as you can get to see a room as possible. But it doesn't mean you can't get down to 230. Right. And you're capped out at 240. With the numbers coming in, you got to 230? 150. Not a bad way if you're like a futures trader, you know, you're looking to get in and it just caps you out. Different type of trade, but that's something that I'm always intrigued if you happen to have the directional bias. NG, let's see. So, OK, so we take a look at this. So are we trading the July two? I believe we are. OK, so we take a look at this. Oh, OK. Oh, oh, what do you know? I'm going to go for lower. Even though this is. You go for lower, all right. I'm going for this low here of Tuesday, which is 233. OK. Oh, see, that's only two pennies now. No, we need more room, yeah. I know, yeah. You know, these charts, folks, so a couple pennies is a lot in the gas market, I guess. That's what we're looking at, yeah. It is, and that's why it's important to say, you only need a penny movement in your way, right? You really want to be careful when if you're making a stream volatility trade. Right. If you're a full penny above the market, you might get a penny movement in the wrong way and you're at your max loss. Exactly, yeah. 877-927-6648, Dow's up 58, Nasdaq up 42, S&Ps up 9.5. Tommy and I come right back. Hi, folks. Tom O'Brien here. If you'd like to get my daily newsletter and market insights, then now is a great time to sign up for a 30-day free trial. Every morning by 9.30, I send out my morning letter to subscribers with market commentary on a variety of markets, currencies, and commodities to keep investors up to date on the day's trading action. Included in market insights are specific buy and sell recommendations for stocks, ETFs, and even options, which stops and place targets included for every trade in my newsletter. If you'd like to try my newsletter risk-free for 30 days, then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find market insights on the trading newsletters. I use my years of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information they need to know for the day ahead. I even issue afternoon updates for my subscribers whenever warranted with important market action. I'm always scouring the market for the next great trading opportunity. 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And if you'd like to see the type of newsletter he delivers every morning, then visit the front page of TFNN. And you'll find the path of least resistance under trading newsletters. For all the details and to start your 30-day free trial today, log on to TFNN.com now. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, the Art of Timing the Trade Chart. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, Your Ultimate Trading Mastery System, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program, the Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies, and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now, we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of the Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. ["The Art of Timing the Trade Charts"] So natural gas rose 102 BCF. Yeah, we got it. The estimate was about 109, so a little bit less oil than the market might have been anticipating. And we jump back to the chart. Less oil, right? Less supply, same price. We get a little spike in price, 237.6. So if you had made the 235 trades, those would be nice. We'll already be over that point, because even the noons, we're looking at about 2.5 pennies. You're 2.6 pennies right now. If you'd made that bearish trade, we'll see where he goes. Your losses were capped out at 240, but we'll see where that market goes, man. We'll see what happens. We only got a minute to digest that news, and I bet they like to jump around. Let's go to our man, Jim, in Palm Harbor. What's going on, Jim? Hey, guys, how are you all today? Good morning, Jim. It's so good to hear that voice, man. How you been? I've been great. Oh, I've been watching you. I just haven't called you. Well, we've been missing you, man. That's right. Yeah. It's been a few days, hasn't it? Yeah, it has, man. There's no doubt. You can blink and you're up and down. I a lot appreciate it, right? But oh, everything, right? Oh, no, no, totally. You know, yeah, rainwise. Slush, that's who you're saying, in a wet couple of days. Oh, it has been a wet couple of days, yeah. Yeah, we needed the rain. There's no doubt. We did. I mean, I think they only brought the temperature down three degrees, but folks, three degrees in Florida, will you? We feel like it's perfect. It's a full spring day. Exactly, exactly. So you get to something. It was a nice call, and I get you guys to look at Terrex Corporation's TEX. Yeah, let's take a look at this. So they do aerial work platforms, construction cranes, material processing. The low in this is $25, the highest $45. This is a good-looking stock, man. I mean, it's got killed, but I can see what you're looking at here. So what you got here, folks, is that this is down from a price point of $38. And even at $38, I kind of like what it looks like up there. Spike, and then it got smoked all the way coming back down to the December 24th area, which the thing that's intriguing about this is that that's where I think the market's going anyway. It's like, OK, there's a few that the chip stocks are down there. But I like how this is set up, man. Now, when I say I like how it's set up, it looks to me, Jim, that you could get a bounce up to this $30.96 pretty easy. That big spike on May 1st. That's the last time that we really had a down draft. Because to me, even that you get that big bar that we June 10th. Yeah, that went from $28.48 to $27.57. But you didn't take out that lower swing. So that low there is $27.57. The last little swing there was $27.46. It's like, you know what, that's pretty good. And then it looks to me like it's trying to bust out of this $28.47 today. And you don't need a lot of volume on this. Now, the stock doesn't do a lot of volume, but I think it's a decent setup, man, for at least a bounce. And then if you get some juice in it, see that high volume bar up there, $38. Let me put this back for a second. Let's see if that took all the swing, too. OK, so here, this is what happened here. I like the high volume bar, but this is important to understand, even in downtrends, that did not take out that swing. The swing up there is $42. So that's always a little bit dangerous, too. But I think you're going to get a bounce up to this $33, man. How did this one come on your radar, Jim? I was just using stock screener. I saw. And I came across it. And it looked like, to me, it had bought them back on about June 3. And then it looked, I noticed that big spike at the high. And I thought, you know, and you think about what they make in its summertime. And plus the first quarter earnings, they went with a fourth quarter earnings. They made $0.51. And then the first quarter, it was 0.87 cents. They had good earnings for the last two quarters. Yeah, they're going to make some money. The fourth quarter was lower than the third quarter, which missed, in fact. Yeah, and next year, they're looking to take in $4.6 this year, $4.7. But they're still a $2 billion company. They're earnings are going to be like $4 a share. Tonight is a nice setup, man. And what's cool about a setup like this, folks, is that the stocks already get smoked. You're at $28.62. If it really goes to $33, that's still a good trade. It's still even a good investment. Definitely just a trade. That would be huge, yeah. And if you get volume as you're going up there, then it opens up that high volume spike, which is much higher, you know? So yeah, I think you get action, man. Well, I appreciate it. Hope you guys have a great rest of your day and good weekend coming up. And I'm still watching you every day. That's a beautiful you appreciate it, man. We appreciate that, man. And we love to hear from you. Have a great one. Thanks, Jake. Y'all have a great one. You, too. No. I'm just going to check real back. Look at that, right back down there, I guess, $2.36. All right, John. You want to see something, folks? OK, this is sad, but you're going to see a couple of these oil companies are in big trouble. Not all of them, but so this is rigged, transition, right? My take is it's going to go bankrupt. Now, watch this. This is like pretty sick. Now, transition, this equity here, this is what they specialize in. The specialty, they do all sorts of oil business. And they're a driller. It's the deep water and harsh environments. Guess what? That business is over, folks. They don't need that anymore because of this fracking. No one's going to pay. If you own the oil company, you're not going to go pay to go out and drill in the ocean a mile and a half down when you can go to the Permian Basin and buy fracking at a very low cost. So when you see this, and I watch this, this is pretty intense. So this had a high out here of $154. You broke every low. So my take is that we're going BK. Now, watch this. This is what's so sick. These are big companies, man. So you get a company that, well, you can see the revenue cut in half, $7 billion to $3.2. Now, watch this. This company is just about here already, Weatherford. WFT. Yeah. And when you see this, you're going to see that I really didn't, I wasn't really cognizant that these companies are going south so quick. So look at this. This stock's trading at $0.04. But when you see this, man, this is another big oil supply company. And you're not talking about a small company. $5.7 billion. They're going BK. I mean, look at those three-year growth rates, right? Yeah. So there's big trouble inside the oil service market. I mean, that's, well, you're sorry. And what you see, you talk about a beaten. This is like, this oil market, man, is something else. Look at this. So that was a $49 stock. Yeah, I mean, the world was so different in 2008. I was putting it to those highs. I mean, what was oil trading at $150 with every single drill trying to go into the ground in every single world? We can hold the literal piece of ground, no matter if it was two miles under the Arctic. No doubt. Let's go to our man, Carlos in Texas. Carlos, what's happening, brother? Carlos. Hey, how you doing guys? What's happening? You sound good. I like it. Yes, Tom. Yes, I feel so much better and so optimistic about the future. Yeah, you sound like you get good energy, man. That's awesome. Yeah, you stay right there. We're going to be right back, OK? We got our man, Carlos from Texas. We are going to be talking the bond market. 30-year bonds. 30-year bonds. Zero interest rate coming at you. Oh, it's trading up 12 right now. That's right, $153.31. Dow, Dow's up 72. Nasdaq's up 45. S&P's up 10 and a half. Folks, stay right there. Tommy, I'll come right back. If you are in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Tax Act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits, which makes these lots valuable. The investment is anywhere from $30,000 to $75,000. The interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis. According to bankrate.com, the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20 is 3.1%. A $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of $1,550 per year or $6,200 over the four-year period. That same $50,000 investment in the Tiger First mortgage program would give you $3,500 per year or $14,000 over the four years. What should you prefer, $6,200 or $14,000 of interest on your investment? If you would like more information about the Tiger First mortgage program, you can call me at 877-518-9190. That's 877-518-9190. If you haven't checked out the newsletter's page of TFNN.com, what are you waiting for? 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And the recently, I asked about the 30-year bond is I wanna understand the relationship that it has with the dollar, if you can explain that. So I can understand better my impact that can create on my investment stock that I have in pesos, if you can make some kind of relationship if it's possible. Yeah, I would love to be able to do that to you, but I can't. It's a great question, man. Because this is what, so, what happens is this, is that if there's a problem with the money, if this is, if we were at Harvard or MIT or just any great university, right, the textbook classic would be that what should be happening right now is that our dollar actually should be pulling back because as the interest rate structure goes lower, bottom line supposedly, you have an aspect that your currency is worth less money. Now, the differential, I would say that, and we were talking about this yesterday even with Teddy, is that what has happened is that interest rates are going lower all across the whole world. So we're still a high interest rate structure. As I was gonna say, lower, quantify lower. To what? Lower relative to what? To what? Like it's not lower if the whole rest of the world is lower because what are you gonna do with your money? You want to stick it under your bed? That's fine. Exactly. It's actually not lower. You know, and what I'd say, no, you're exactly right. Is that people need dollars to buy US bonds. That's correct. So in theory, Carlos, if the bonds are rocking and rolling in terms of a higher yield, everybody wants a US dollar but you're gonna need dollars to buy those. So then you have to go buy dollars to buy dollar bonds. So that's kind of the relationship, but things are a little interesting when you get where we are right now with just with the Fed and this relationship where the economy comes out with bad news and the market goes through the roof because it thinks that bonds are gonna go lower. That's not how it used to be where the bad economic indicators would spike the market higher because of this inverse relationship of just the market actually worrying about rates more than they're worrying about market performance. Yeah. Well. You know. Yes, go ahead. Well, pay so why. You're at 19 and a half, right? Well, 19.5. 0.15. Yeah. You know, my take here is that, yeah, you know, you're gonna probably get up to 20 again. You know, this looks to me like a monster consolidation. And you know, if you miss the, I've got this back two years and bring it back four years for a second. Yeah. This is a good looking chart, you know, for the pay so. You know, it doesn't mean that it's gonna, you know, go up to 22. The good thing, Tom, is that when the pay so gets cheap, it's there's a lot of opportunities because until the price is adjusted, people keep selling either property or goods at the same price until they catch up with the. Yeah. With the party with the dollar. So the one side is good, but like when we have these spikes, it really hurts people, especially the people who have less income. Right. It really got hurt every time we get the dollar spiking for any tweet or any tariff. People really struggle. I see, because I live a few months in Mexico and a few months in the United States. Yes. And I can see the struggle, definitely. No, I can see that. So what it was, you know, this is what is intriguing. There's no doubt. You understanding the correlation and what happens, folks, is that these have been fast moves. And I can see that, you know, unless you really use the currencies in general, I can see why the price doesn't get changed as quick as it actually should in some asset classes, right? That's what you're talking about. You know, so I can see that. So let me just wrap my head around this for a second. So when we get 20 pesos to a dollar, that is going to be, that's... The peso is weakening as it goes up. Yeah, it's weakening, okay, so. You can see that on the election, remember, we can tremendously use that big spike, but then it pulled back to even before, you know, stronger than it was before the election. And if you look at it, it's really remarkable. We're right at, like literally, right at the election, the day before the election. And that's because that's what we have here is that you get the bond market. That's where the bond market is too, you know? Okay, yeah. There's a lot with the trade tariffs that go on there in terms of the market expected, very tough rhetoric and all this stuff. And then we got a USMCA deal that's basically NAFTA. We have a threat of tariffs, no tariffs going in, you know? Yeah, I wish I could give you the direct correlation, but you know, I can tell you this, I'm embarrassed to dollar. I mean, if I, the thing that's intriguing is that when I look at that chart, it's like, okay, that wants to get weaker, but then when I go over and look at the dollar, what ends up happening is that, you know, this dollar, you know, bottom line, it had a good, and at the index had a good move yesterday. It looks like it's gonna just basically give it up on volume today, and you know, you're coming into a 29,000, 29,000 contracts, and we've done 11, so, but it looks like it still wants to bounce a bit, you know? Can you break down what the influences are in that dollar index? Because I know the peso is in the top. No, no, yeah, 60% is zero. Then has the end, the pound, but I just didn't know if they'd end the breakdown. No. They don't have that. Okay, we'll check it out with this one. No, yeah, it's 60% euro, and then I believe it's, yeah. Yeah. Well, Carmen, Tommy, thank you for your take. I don't wanna take too much on your time, and I just wanna wish you, Tom, and all the people in the band, and on the FNN, a very nice Father's Day. And you have a great Father's Day, too, man. You too, Carlos. Great hearing from you, man. Thank you. Thanks so much for calling, man. Take care. Have a great one, man, have a safe one. Gotta love it. That's right, man. You know, man, Carlos, he's growling a problem. That's right. You can hear the strength in him, man. I love it. Totally. So, quick check back, lower, 235. So, quite a spike, man, up to 237.6. We're now almost 2.7 pennies below that level. That would be pretty much max loss on the volatility. They nailed it. I know, they nailed it, man. On the bearish one, that would be a nice trade, as you're trading down, but we'll see what happens about 10.49. But, yeah, 235 on those volatilities, that was the worry, right? You do get some volatility, but it moves against where you have value, so. Let's go take a look at the strength, which is a weakness inside the NDX. You got American Airlines up 5.5%, United up 3.5%, so I wonder what's going on now. That was just, yeah, what's shaking. So, let's go look at that first. So, you got an American. They're gonna be paying higher oil, too. So, what's the... Okay, so, you got some buyers in here. Well, we got some news in there, I'm sorry. Yeah. American AI manages to join crews on 737 max before passes. I wonder if they're gonna give them combat pay. Seriously, man. And then I see, though, what about planned fiscal one billion revenue improvement? Maybe this is what, I mean, there's a lot of max airlines this morning. They got a lot going on, man. Oh, they? I see, American Air on track for planned fiscal year. One billion revenue improvement. Yeah, Boeing's got this push on right now. I can see how the PR that was coming out yesterday went in a big way. They get the push on now to get ready to... Maybe this is it. Maybe the max is gonna be back flying by September 3rd. Ooh, that's big because yesterday the push was December. Okay, that's probably what's hidden in those companies. Stay right there, folks. Tommy and I are coming right back. I'm certain you are, or strive to be, one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. 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For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfn.com. ["Think or Swim Banner"] Folks, Dow, Dow Industries up 36, and that's like up 37, this piece up seven and a half, and we'll see if this market holds. You know, it looks like we're gonna have a sideways market. If that's what you get, these summer hours are really playing in. Let's see where we are in the VIX. We're holding steady because, I mean, man, if we just like tick around 30 points on the Dow, right, five points on the S&P, there's, you bet, you better be selling people premium. If that's the type of market action we're gonna get when you can sell it at almost a 16 VIX. Right. You know, it's pretty interesting. We're not moving, what is the... That's, so 16 is a 1% move every one out of three days. The important part is every one out of three days, you know. And, you know, a 24 would be, I believe, a 1.5% move because it's the law of 16, and then a 32, you're looking for a 2% move. I don't think the market right now is gonna be moving 1% every three days. So therefore, like Kevin was saying, it's almost like that expected market move, right? This is how it is. The expected market move is a 1% move every three days. If you don't think it's gonna move that, you better be selling the premium. Right. If you think it's gonna be more than that, You'd buy it. You'd better be buying it. And, you know, the Dow's, well, it speeds it down to 4.10 to 1%. Yeah. Yeah. And like Kevin said, I mean, what's on the horizon to drive this thing, right? Right. To really move it. Yeah. We'll see. We'll take a look at... Probably we'll wake up tomorrow, it's gonna be like 600 points. Yeah. I mean, everybody that bought at 16, because the other side of that is the market wouldn't be there, the VIX wouldn't be there, if people weren't buying that premium. That's right. Expecting a move. Exactly. So keep that in mind too. They're not stupid players in the market. They might know something. And what you have out here, so that 10 o'clock spike has volume. So this thing has not done, that's at 28.85. It's 28.88 right now. Stay right there, folks. We get the fast market coming up next. And we get our man, Mr. Basil Chapman. Steve Rhodes, Steve White. I'll be back this afternoon. Thanks, Bill. Thanks, man. Weeelll, look at him, folks.