 Hey everyone, this is Dan with another episode of my weekly chart analysis. In this video I will first look at SPY and QQQ and talk about what has been driving the broad market in the last couple of days. I will talk about my general trading strategies for the next few days. I will then look at the charts for a few stocks in my portfolio. They include BioNTech, Moderna, ASML, AMD, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Alphabet, Regeneron, and finally Royal Caribbean. Let's get into the details. As of last Friday, the news broke out that a new strain of COVID virus has been discovered and is being named by the World Health Organization as the Omicron variant. And the Omicron variant is supposed to be more contagious than even a Delta variant. So far as of today, aside from South Africa, the variant has been found in Botswana, Belgium, Canada, Australia, the Netherlands, Denmark, United Kingdom, Germany, Israel, Italy, and the Czech Republic as well as Hong Kong. Looks like it's indeed spreading rather quickly. Let's look at SPY. In the charts that I'll be showing in this video, you will see three lines indicating the simple moving averages for 50 days, which will be the blue dashed line. And for 100-day simple moving average, that's a yellow dashed line and a 200-day simple moving average, that will be the red dashed line. The left panel is a daily chart for SPY and the right panel is an hourly chart for SPY. As we can see that SPY overall has been bullish since the beginning of October. The price has been climbing up way above the middle of the Bollinger Band, almost hugging the upper Bollinger Band. And then it started to pull back a little bit after it reached this overboard situation on November 8th, and it went down a little bit and started to go sideways and got some support from the middle of the Bollinger Band. On Friday, when the news came out about the Omicron variant, it dropped. It dropped more than 2% on Friday, quite a significant drop, although it was supported by the lower Bollinger Band. If we zoom into the hourly chart, we see the drop during the course of Friday, and after a month it closed, actually it bounced up a little bit. As of now, actually the S&P future is positive. Let me look at it quickly. Now it's 11.20 PM Sunday night, the Dow Jones future is up 0.72%, S&P futures up 0.94%, and NASDAQ futures up 1.17%. Let's switch back to our charts. Now if you look at the daily chart, the next level of support will be at the blue dash line, which is a 50-day simple moving average, and the next level support will be the yellow dash line, the 100-day simple moving average. It's going to be a while before it ever hit the 200-day moving average. Let's hope it doesn't get down to that point anytime soon. And hopefully if the Omicron virus does not prove to be as bad as some people thought on Friday, so far we read that the symptoms have been very mild for the Omicron variant, and if that's the case, SPY will recover, and of course the next level of resistance will be the middle of the Bony Band at 465, and then the next level of resistance will be 472, and then the intraday all-time high of 473. Those will be the resistance levels. I will definitely be monitoring the news very carefully tomorrow, Monday, as well as Tuesday, because the Omicron variant will definitely be dominating the wavelength, and it will be most significant influence on the market in the next couple of days. On Friday, I took the opportunity in the afternoon approaching market closing when I saw on a 5-minute chart, or 1-minute chart, that SPY seemed to be bottoming out. At that point, I bought Upro, which is a triple index ETF index to S&P 500, and I also bought Royal Caribbean shares. That's risky bad, and my calculation was that if the market continues to go down on Monday, I will then sell these shares quickly to cut my losses, but in the meanwhile, if it does show a bounce on Monday, I should be able to see some pretty nice gain on Monday. Let's look at QQQ. Well QQQ, the pattern is very similar to SPY. It also dropped more than 2% on Friday, as we can see here, although it didn't quite hit the bottom of the Bollinger Band, it stopped pretty much between the 20-day moving average and the bottom of the Bollinger Band. So far, the NASDAQ futures are up. If the market opens up tomorrow, then the next level of resistance will be the middle of the Bollinger Band at about 394, and the next level of resistance will be at the upper Bollinger Band at 404. If it does go down, the next level support will be 386, and then the next level down will be the 50-day moving average, 378, and then 100-day moving average, 374. When we look at the new COVID cases in South Africa, in the last few days, we do see an uptake in the daily new cases. However, it's not at a point where it's exploding yet, but it is indeed somewhat alarming, and a lot of that might be due to the new Omicron variant. If you look at the last few days, on November 25th, there were 2,465 new cases in South Africa, 114 deaths. November 26th, 2,828 new cases certainly increased quite significantly, and only 12 new deaths. On November 27th, they jumped up to 3,220 new cases and 8 new deaths, and November 28th, as of today, 2,058 new cases and 6 new deaths. Because this is the weekend, sometimes some of the countries might be lagging behind in reporting new cases during the weekend, as we see the numbers coming for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday from South Africa, we will know better whether the virus is indeed spreading quickly in South Africa or not. So definitely we need to be very careful about the news development in the next few days, because that will definitely have a very significant impact on the market. There's a little bit of a good news, as of today, it was reported that one of the South African doctors who reported the new Omicron strain said that, so far as far as he could see, the symptoms of the variant were so far very mild and could be treated at home. Let's hope that's the case, but in the next few days, as more Omicron cases are identified, we will be able to know better as far as what the symptoms are. Let's hope for the best at this point. Let's look at how the different sectors responded to the news on Friday. From this table, we can see that the consumer discretionary sector dropped the most, losing 5.72%. The cruise line companies including Royal Caribbean and also the airlines belong to this sector and the next worst sector was the technology sector losing 4.25% and then the industrial sector losing 2.87%. The sector that was least affected by the news was the healthcare sector losing only 0.49% and actually, of course, BioNTech and Moderna went up significantly because they produced the COVID vaccines. And then the next one is the consumer stable sector losing only 0.92%. If the virus situation continues to deteriorate, we will see the market continue to deteriorate along the line of what's shown in this table. However, if the virus situation is stabilized quickly, then when the market recovers, the sectors on top of this table will recover the fastest. For example, the consumer discretionary sector will recover quickly and that's why I took a chance at what Royal Caribbean approaching market closing on Friday. The market has been fairly bullish in the last month or so. And of course, Friday, it took a big dip because of the new variant. So far, as far as the charts are concerned, the market is still in a bullish trend. Now, what can bring down the market in the next few weeks? Aside from the new COVID variants, if we are continuing to be hit with high inflation rates, that will certainly depress the market. Also, since the Fed already started tapering, that might soften the market in the near future. Although the taper at this point is very gentle, it was $120 billion a month of asset buying from the Fed. Now, they will reduce it to $105 billion a month of asset buying, very small change. Although the taper might be increasing soon, if the employment numbers continue to be good and the economy and the stock market continue to be strong. Or the Fed might increase the Fed funds rate and interest rates in general going to 2022. That will certainly soften the market. Biden's $1.2 trillion infrastructure package, which was recently approved by the Congress, may increase the interest rate due to increasing government borrowing. If there is further deterioration of the Chinese red state market as related to Evergrande and other leading red state developers in China, and also if the Chinese government continues to tighten their regulations on e-commerce, such as Alibaba, Tencent, and so on. Talking about interest rates, let's see how the interest rates have been changing since the beginning of November. I downloaded this table from the internet. It looks like a bunch of numbers, which could be confusing. But if I translate them into percentages, it will be clearer. I take the first three numbers for each column as a base, and then I look at day-to-day what percentage changes we have from the base. As you can see, the one month treasury rate has gone up a lot, 120% comparing to the first three days of the month. On the other hand, the two-month rate has gone down by 45.5%. And if you plot it, then we get a very interesting picture. Here it is. One month rate at 1.0 is up 180%. But as of Friday, because of the market drop due to the Omicron variant, it dropped down to about 120%. So it's an increase. And it seems that the biggest decrease was the two-month rate here at about 50% decrease. And then we have two or three other rates that decrease. Overall, we see more increases than decreases. Therefore, if the trend continues, if the Omicron variant situation doesn't get any worse, I expect the interest rates to continue to climb, which will in turn pull down the market somewhat. How about the Santa Rally? Ever since 1993, the SPY ETF has gone up 18 years out of 27 years, about 67% of the time. It's not a high percentage. And that's why we cannot completely count on the Santa Rally, which is supposed to happen in the last two or three weeks of December. We can say that the probability is more than 50% to have a Santa Rally. But I'm not going to place all my bets on that. Definitely, we still need to monitor the news development and look at the charts from day to day. At this point, I'd like to remind you to subscribe to my Twitter account because I inform my Twitter subscribers about my trades. And also, if there's any news development related to the broad market or related to anyone of the stocks I have in my portfolio, I will share the information with my subscribers on Twitter. These are the tweets I sent on the last few days. And to sum up the trades that I share with my subscribers, for example, November 1, I bought BioNTech and sold Moderna. And that's mainly because FDA delay the approval of Moderna for adolescents. And then on the 26th this past Friday, I bought RCL and Upro after they had dropped significantly and started to recover. And I also sold BioNTech after it shot up quickly in a day. I said a trailing stop quo limit order on BioNTech and sold at 361, realizing a 50% gain on the shares I bought earlier. For example, I bought shares on November 15 and November 8th and November 5th. And I used to hold some shares off BioNTech. If you like what you've seen so far, I'd like to encourage you to click the like, subscribe and notification button. That'll enable you to receive notification when I publish my next video. It'll also encourage me to make more videos like this in the future. Thank you very much. Let's continue. We have a lot to cover. Let's look at BioNTech. The last time I did my fundamental analysis on BioNTech was on November 26, actually a couple of days ago. And at the time, BioNTech closed at $348 a share. I predicted that the price would go up to $400 a share by the end of February 2022, about three months from now. Not surprisingly, because in the news about the new variant, BioNTech jumped up significantly, actually up 14% as of last Friday. It jumped up so much that it went way above the Upper Bowling Jet Band at one point. And usually when that happened, it's not very sustainable. And that's why I set trailing stop-call limit orders on some of my BioNTech shares. And I sold at about 361 in change. With my Twitter messages, I've been sharing with my subscribers that I bought BioNTech on November 5th, November 8th, and November 15th. When I sold some of those shares as of last Friday, I realized a 50% gain. So I got lucky on that one. If you look at the hourly chart, it peaked at 372 at 11.15 a.m. Then it started to drift down. At this point, I'm holding to my remaining shares, and if it continues to go down on Monday, then I might even sell more shares for locking my profit. And I will hopefully buy them back later on at lower price levels. As you can see, historically there's a lot of volatility for BioNTech. And that's why it's helpful to do swing trading and try to sell high and buy low. Although I'm holding BioNTech shares, particularly the shares I bought back in June, July, August timeframe, because I'm very bullish on BioNTech, as well as Moderna. Let's look at Moderna. The last time I published my fundamental analysis on Moderna was on November 26th. At a time, Moderna closed at $329 a share. And I predicted that Moderna would go up to $370 a share by the end of February, 2022. For Moderna, let's zoom in. It also had a similar jump to BioNTech. This past Friday actually jumped more than BioNTech. It went up 20%. That's certainly very impressive. And since I didn't hold a lot of Moderna shares coming to Friday, so I did not sell any. I still have some that I'm keeping for the long term. Had I owned a lot of shares, I could have also put in a stop limit order and sold when it was high, similar to what I did with BioNTech. Again, I'll be monitoring the news development very carefully in the next few days with regard to the Omicron variant. Let's look at ASML. The last time I published my fundamental analysis on ASML was on November 3rd, 2021. At a time, ASML was at $830 a share. And I predicted that it would go up to $910 a share at the end of February, 2022. For ASML, it's been going down in the last five, six days after it reached an all-time high on September 13th. Because of the market situation on Friday, almost everything dropped with the exception of COVID vaccines. And we can see that previously on Thursday it was getting support at the lower border in Japan. But as of Friday, it dropped and closed below the lower border in Japan. If the market does recover on Monday, it might pop above the lower border in Japan. If the Omicron variant continues to be very mild as far as symptoms, then the market might continue to recover. And actually, at that point, if I see on the OLLI chart that ASML is making higher highs and higher lows, I might be buying more shares because I'm very bullish long-term on ASML. They have the monopoly on the EUV lithography market and near monopoly on the DUV lithography market. They sell equipment that all the advanced semiconductor foundries need to buy. And as you know, there's been a ship shortage and the foundries are growing their manufacturing capacities very aggressively in the next few years. So that means a very steady stream of businesses for ASML in the next few years. And they're being also aggressively buying back stocks. This is a very strong company. Let's switch to the OLLI chart here. At this point, it's still bearish, the trend, although it might be bottoming out as the news become clearer about the Omicron virus in the next few days. And if it's not a serious situation with regard to the variant, then we will see ASML start to recover and I'll be buying more shares. Let's look at AMD. The last time I published my fundamental analysis on AMD was on October 29th at a time AMD closed at $120 a share and I predicted that AMD would go up to $160 a share by the end of January, 2022. AMD has been going parabolic since the beginning of October because of very strong earnings. And after they reached this level when we saw an overbought situation on the RSI indicator around November 8th, it then went down for a couple of days and then continued to climb up and then it pulled back again after it reached 161.88 intraday. It staged the recovery on Thursday but then it drifted down a little bit because of the Omicron variant concerns. On the Oli chart, yeah, we see the drop and then it's pretty much bottom out. Let's hope it will recover on Monday. At this point, I might be buying more AMD shares also. I might be selling BioNTech shares and then use the cash to buy SML, AMD and probably even more Upro shares on Monday if the market starts to recover and if the virus fear turned out to be unwarranted and overgrown. Let's look at NVIDIA. The last time I published my fundamental analysis of NVIDIA was on October 29th. At a time, NVIDIA closed at $255 a share and I predicted that it would go up to $280 a share by the end of January, 2022. For NVIDIA, we can see that it reached an all-time high just recently on November 22nd and then because it was an overboard situation based on RSI and not surprisingly, it started to drift down a little bit for a day and then it recovered and then when it got hit on Friday with the rest of the stocks and dropped 3.58%. Again, I expect to see a recovery on Monday if the broad market does recover and I might buy more shares of NVIDIA and if I do so, I will share that information by way of my Twitter account. I already charted, looked similar, I dropped and then it bottomed out and started to go horizontal in the last two, three hours of the trading day on Friday. Let's look at Qualcomm. The last time I published my fundamental analysis on Qualcomm was November 18th. At a time, Qualcomm closed at $183 a share and I predicted that it would go up to $240 a share by the end of January, 2022. For Qualcomm, it shot up very quickly after the quarterly earnings report and then it hit an overboard situation here on November 8th but that only caused the price to go flat for a few days and then it continued to climb up and then hit the overboard situation with RSI value as high as 85 on November 16th and then it started to come down a little bit and then of course it dropped 2.75% on Friday with the broad market. I bought Qualcomm's share actually on November 4th. Let's see here. When I heard about the earnings report on November 4th, I quickly bought more shares and I bought more shares on November 19th which is around here and then I bought more shares on November 24th. So at this point, I won't be buying any more shares. Hopefully it'll continue to recover. I'm keeping the Fibonacci extension diagram that I drew when I published my last Qualcomm fundamental analysis. If it does go up, the next level of resistance will be right here. It's a historical point. Also coincidentally, it's a Fibonacci 38% at 179. Next level resistance will be Fibonacci extension 50% at 184 which also coincided with this historical point. And that's why it's a good validation that the diagram that I drew a few weeks ago was a pretty good diagram to predict the future movements of the stock price. If the price does drop, the next level support would be the middle of the Bowling Japan here and the next level support would be the 50 and 100 day moving average and 200 day moving average and then the bottom of the Bowling Japan. Let's look at Alphabet. The last time I published my fundamental analysis on Alphabet was on September 17th. At a time, Alphabet closed at 2829 and I predicted that it would go up to $3,200 by the end of March, 2022. We can see that Alphabet hit an all-time high of 3037 on November 19th. Actually, the RSI level was not even that high but it then started to drift downward. As of Friday, it went down the rest of the market and actually it failed to be supported by the lower Bowling Japan although it was supported by the 50 day moving average and tomorrow most likely it will start to move up. I bought Google shares on September 16 and September 26th. Let's see, it was around here. So I'm just about breakeven at this point not making any profit yet but I'm bullish long-term on Google or Alphabet. Let's look at Regeneron. The last time I published my fundamental analysis on Regeneron was on August 26th, 2021. At a time, Regeneron was at $665 a share and I predicted that it would go up to $720 a share by the end of November, 2021, just about this time now. Let's see what happened. With Regeneron, I bought on August 27th, right here and September 15th, around here. So that's my average price. So I'm seeing a small paper loss at this point. On Friday actually it dropped 0.75% surprisingly because Regeneron has a COVID treatment and it coincidentally pretty much all the COVID treatments including Regeneron and Eli Lilly as well as Merck went down on Friday. Overall the market was favoring the COVID vaccines rather than the COVID treatments on Friday when the news about the Omicron variant broke out. That's an interesting situation. And at this point it's hard to tell whether Regeneron will move up or move down on Monday. I will definitely be clipping a close watch on it. Finally, let's look at Royal Caribbean. The last time I posted my fundamental analysis on Royal Caribbean was on October 5th. At a time Royal Caribbean was at $91 a share and I predicted that would go up to $134 a share by the end of March, 2022. Royal Caribbean and that's been moving up and down although it's been mostly moving down the last 10 days. And of course because of the news about the Omicron variant on Friday it dropped quite a lot by 13%. I've been swing trading and have been making quite a bit of profit because there's a very clear pattern and I followed this pattern and so when it was high hitting the resistance here and then bought when it hit the support level on the bottom here. I miscalculated when I bought around here and then when it went up I was happy but I didn't sell and when it started to go down and approaching the supposedly support line and failed to get support I sold many of my shares and then as of Friday actually I bought more shares because I see that it seems to be bottoming out on an hourly basis and also it has hit a very important historical support point around 70. Although it could even go down further I believe that short term is probably not likely to sink that fast. This is a risky move that I figured if it continued to go down on Monday and Tuesday I would just sell those new shares at a small loss but on the other hand if it does recover then the profit potential could be quite significant. At this time I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor. I share my stock trading strategies and analyses for educational and entertainment purposes only. If you want to sell or buy stocks you should make your own decisions and you should definitely can sell with your financial advisors before you do so. Just about wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments.