 Hi, my name is Liam road currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand for us and gold fundamental and technical analysis and let's get into the week ahead in today's agenda No, this week's agenda is going to be looking at the week ahead trade update on the Aussie Swiss that I took last week And I there was a trade breakdown on that so you can watch last week's video going to the major Analysis on the forex pairs major forex pairs and also two new trades that I took this this week So let's get into the week ahead and The upcoming week in the United States will be incredibly active placing emphasis on the Fed's interest rate decision inflation data and retail Sales investors will also closely track PPI inflation figures and S&P global PMRs Internationally markets will keenly follow monetary policy updates from the European Central Bank Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank Fervor more Germany will share insights through the ZW economic sentiment index Japan will provide the tank and large Manufacturers index and flash PMRs will emerge from Australia Japan the euro area and the United Kingdom Unemployment rates will be disclosed for the UK and finally China's economic Canada will highlight The Yuan's loans retail sales industrial production and house price index and the unemployment rate for November So lots going on this week just before really the end of the year. I think this is probably going to be one of the busiest weeks We only got really two main trading weeks before the end of the year and so Yeah, the central bank Statements are likely to kind of push back on any kind of rate cuts, but we'll get into that in the next Segment after the trade update, which was the Aussie Swiss that I took last week now many of you Would if you watch the video this was basically a stop-hunt trade We entered in and around the one zero point five seven And then I moved my stop-loss up after prices came down to hit the 50% By a pending order which ended up being a profitable trade so locked in a little bit of profit as prices went higher But then we had this week prices kind of fall away There wasn't great news for the for the Australian dollar I think it was like a GDP news that came out lower than it then forecasted and So basically prices for the Australian dollar anyway didn't appreciate as much as I would wanted to at this level So this trade ended up being pretty much a small win Nearly breaking even very small win on this trade So but stick around to the end of the video where I will go over two profitable trades Which are the dollar CAD and the pound Swiss so now getting into the The analysis for the weekend starting off on the dollar and the dollar fundamentally We had some good news for the dollar in terms of supportive news for Potential dollar appreciation for anyone who is bullish on the dollar This would have been a good news for you So the US labor market defies a slowdown forecast in broad strengthening so payrolls rose nearly 200,000 in November and unemployment fell and that hourly earnings increased 0.4% matching the biggest gains of the year And so the US labor market Unexpectedly strengthened in November with pickups in unemployment and wages Tempering bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates Next year and it's really important because the narrative now is that The first central bank to cut rates is really the bank that you should look to sell and The central bank that is likely to hold rates for the longest before cutting because we're on really an interest rate cutting cycle Is going to be the central the currency that you should basically buy right and I explain this actually in in a video that I released on Wednesday And it's called for its fundamental trading webinar use leading and lagging interest rates to predict big trends and in this video I really break down How the banks are looking at? Not only in the when central banks are likely to Cut rates and bank of Japan being one of the actually the few banks of the only bank major bank to actually look to Hike rates, but it's it's important to understand when they are looking to Cut rates and that will determine really a currency's value against another right and so with good news for the United States in terms of the economy What we've really seen is a pushback in the expectation for rate cuts and so strong labor market so in a recession you should have a Low employment and high unemployment, but in this case you had the opposite, right? So you had in a in a in a growing economy or at least an economy that is stable you should have rising employment and Lowering unemployment and that's basically what's happened here. So It says all in all expectations of many cuts next year that have that begin in the first quarter We'll be paired back said Derek Tang the economist with LH mayor monetary policy analytics Fed policy makers will seize on this to call for patience and the whole and a longer hold So that should be supportive for the dollar going forward. So technically any pullbacks on the dollar I think are buying opportunities. Yes, there is I think some inflation data coming out this week as well And so that would obviously have to also be supportive of the Federal Reserve Holding rates, but if it and if it is then I do think that the dollar has kind of found a Bottom for now anyway in terms of maybe the low being the 102s So for me and my bias not necessarily, you know, you can do what you want. This is a financial advice But the dollar for me is still a continued Buy it was looking a bit shaky over the past couple of weeks But the data now is proving and supporting the narrative for a buy Dollar yen and we saw this week in fact the dollar yen strengthened massively basically cut through any Technical levels that anyone would have had on their charts. This is really because Fundamentals and sentiment is what drives price, right? It's not Anything else. It's you know, it's just price You know a price chart as a reflection of what? Reflection of value right and value is derived in Forex anyway by Interest rates inflation in GDP. So the There was some news that came out this week, which was two-thirds of Bank of Japan What is expect the end of negative rate regime by April? So There was some announcement that came out this week, which The market interpreted as the Bank of Japan being quite hawkish and it says here some 94% of polled economists see No policy change in December and 15% axing of sub zero in January but half up to four April So Bank of Japan which is increasingly expecting the bank to achieve its inflation target with a growing majority Forecasting authorities will end the world's last negative rate regime by April according to Bloomberg survey more than two-thirds polled economists see the Bank of Japan Scrapping its negative rate by April with half of the 52 respondents saying it will happen that month in The previous survey in October 29% saw the move coming in April so an increase now of Economist thinking that they're going to Raise rates in April the results Come in a week where financial markets were jolted by the prospects of an even earlier end to sub zero borrowing costs as traders reacted to comments from the Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda and One of his deputies and with hints they could be preparing for a policy shift Japanese bond yield surged by more by the most in a year and the yen strengthened almost four percent so You know going back to the charts that's the reason why the market is buying the rumor that the that the Bank of Japan are likely to potentially hike in April and so You know it's by the rumor right you have to buy the room and get ahead start making money before everyone else starts to Position themselves and so that's what we pretty much saw not just against the dollar But I get across the board right the yen against all other currencies and so I think and I said this been saying this for the past few few months matter of fact is that once the Bank of Japan do start their hiking cycle There are calls in fact for prices to come You know to one two twos so it could actually come even lower down to around here the 120 area so there's thousands of pips in this trade idea just need the data to support the The the sentiment and the narrative right because it's not a guarantee You know the reason why they're looking to cut rates is to look for inflation To look for inflation inflation rising and if inflation rises Then they're likely and the economy as well Does support rate hikes then the likelihood and the probability of their being rate hikes increases Therefore prices should want to you know move to the downside in terms of the dollar yen or the dollar or the yen Appreciate right so there's that But if you're looking for certain levels then and looking for a pullback Then you really gonna have to look for a pullback all the way back up into the one for sevens doesn't look like me Or you're looking for at least a lower low All right, so prices to go like this make a lower low then a pullback into what would be a supply zone around that 44 1 4 4 area so that would be around here And then you're looking for a short trade if you're looking for of course shorts if you're looking for long trades Then really a pullback down I think hidden into these one for twos is actually a decent area to look for longs And by the dollar versus the yen Looking at the dollar cad and the dollar cad was a trade that I ended up taking on the Sunday Sunday night on the market open and it was right at the Basically end of this close of the daily candle on the Friday that open of this candle here but we'll get into that at the end of the video and Yeah, you can see where prices are pretty much gone right this week which has been which has been brilliant so From that perspective, I mean my bias is obviously to go short prices have pulled back a little bit into this supply zone And you would really want to buy the Canadian dollar really based off of either Canadian dollar strength or dollar weakness But for now, I think with the data that has come out for the United States I can't see why the the dollar would really want to continue moving You know all the way to the downside so and even if it does to me that is just as long as the data obviously supports it It's basically just buying the dollar for even cheaper, right? So my bias is to look for buy trades On this in terms of adding into the trades that I've the position that I've already got and so the prices Do pull back to any of these areas. I will be adding in as I've taken profits Partial profits, I should say off already. So this is now profitable trade and so now I'm just looking for now better better prices to get involved and use the profits that I've That I've banked to add in to more trades to the upside potentially, right? so see that's where we are and that's really where the The opportunities are out into I think, you know, it's to really kind of buy the dollar at the moment And if again prices do come down It's not the end of the world It just means that I'm looking for buy trades either at these areas and I'm gonna look for even, you know More buying because I think there's potential upsides on the dollar cat looking at the New Zealand dollar US dollar again prices came up into this area that we've highlighted Last week pretty much bounced off it. I was saying that whenever you see a wide zone of supply some people complain and moan and say Well, that's too wide But it is what it is in terms of how we draw supply zones But you can also break them down by using, you know, traditional technical analysis like, you know, supporting resistance horizontal diagonal and and the like so in this case there was horizontal resistance in this area of Supply So now what we have is Just make sure that this is The Yeah, that that would probably be where it is and I'll move that down to here So any pullbacks I think up into This area here could be potential for a short The New Zealand dollar I think has got some news this week It's got GDP coming out. So if that's positive, then this could be a really nice buy from I wouldn't say necessarily where we are Actually, there is a demand zone here, but it's it's in the It's quite high in terms of Where we are Maybe a bit of an expensive area depends but I think now could be okay But probably the better price to look for would be this 0.604 area and then look for buys around there So if it doesn't work here, then you're looking for buy trades down into a deeper discount But I would buy the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar at the moment. I think both Currencies look pretty decent look pretty decent. So moving on to the pound dollar and The pound dollar Again the pound this week didn't really have any news but Will say last week, but this week we should have a Bank of England statement also as well there is unemployment and GDP month-for-month numbers coming out this this week and so the pound actually is expected to be one of the central banks that are Likely to hold for longer. So it says here rate cut expectations of building though less rapidly than the euro then the US and Eurozone, right? So It looks like the Bank of England and the market is not pricing in rate cuts as soon as the US or the or the Eurozone which basically is Supporting the the pound at the moment. Of course The data needs to support that and if the data comes out this week, which is I think on Tuesday We've got unemployment rate and GDP month-for-month as well before the actual interest rate decision So if anything the unemployment rate, let's say for example, we're kind of maybe even ticks lower So I say unemployment comes in at 4.1 for example And maybe GDP comes in better better than forecast then that should actually be a buy it for the British pound But not necessarily against again the the US dollar I would and I'm already in the pound Swiss And I think a weaker currency like the Swiss franc or the euro is really where my money would be in buying the the pound so Pound dollar not really a pair that I'm interested in but if you are then Either buys right now bad down into this demand zone or you're looking for a short trade backup into this Supply zone around here That's what I would say But again, it's a really kind of a harder pair to trade I think if the data does come out Disappointing no for example unemployment rate comes out, you know higher than expected and maybe GDP comes out lower than expected Contracts more than expected then I think then the pound actually is the market is going to reprice Rate cuts coming forward a lot more Then you might see and you're likely to see that she the pounds start to sell off a Lot more so in fact that would be where I think this this this week is going to be definitely a An interesting week So I may get out of my a pound Swiss trade depending on the data and actually reverse My my trades in terms of my bias in terms of buying the the British pound at the moment So pound yen again all these zones must just delete everything Reason being is because as I said before There's really no no no demand zones that are going to stand in the way technical analysis in general that's going to stand in a way of Of any kind of fundamental and resentiment analysis Really these are the areas that I would say on a price chart that are Would be considered expensive or cheap right? This was a bargain price You know at the time right here and then we saw You know prices are expensive so between a bargain and the cheap and a discount and expensive or premium prices Come back inside here, and then we basically reacted off that area there What a price zone there and so I think any pullbacks into You know these these lower areas and these lower zones could potentially be buying opportunities it again It just depends on the I've not only the pound data, but also the the expectation for the yen to hike rates and again Keep an eye on the data because the market could have got ahead of itself in terms of buying the yen Because if the data doesn't support buying the yen on and the Bank of Japan doesn't want to high crates in for example You know some sort of recession that they might be going through or contraction at least then in fact This could actually be a decent buying opportunity in terms of buying the pound against the yen is the end Value so again a tricky pair to trade at the moment from a technical analysis perspective and also fundamentally In my sentiment wise so again, not really a pair that I'm looking at at the moment Euro-dollar your dollar has come down. I kind of expected it to And Yeah, let's just get into some of this analysis. So the ECB, right? Are also Clashing with markets over rate cut timing survey shows and so the European Central Bank won't lower interest rates as soon or as quickly as Investors think according to a Bloomberg survey of economists that suggest policy makers will push back against current market bets And the current market bets investors see almost 150 basis points of cuts next year kicking off as early as March So economies only predict Reductions in September and December after June. So So again, I think that the European Central Bank will be the first of the major central banks to start to cut rates Maybe Canada might be but I think probably the European Central Bank are in a way worse position than the US at the moment And the data is proving so I do think any pullbacks should be Shorting opportunities. So again, not too sure whether prices are going to come all the back up to this 95 area So what you'd have to kind of look for is either a pullback into And a lower low right lower high lower low and then look for Something like this to happen. We we get a move back into that supply zone Something like that or Actually, yeah, that's pretty much it you have to wait for something like that to happen. So, you know with that being said You know selling at lows is never the greatest idea although the guy's in the group actually know that I Did get in and on a short position on the news rarely trade the news but the news was Caught the market offside. So I did actually get involved in nearly got stopped out But that said maybe another trade break down for another day. Hopefully, you know, it goes in my direction on the lower time frame But yeah, so that's where we are haven't been stopped out yet and let's see what happens if it continues going lower then brilliant But where are we today? I think if you're looking for buy trades then a pullback down into the 107 is gonna look like a very nice technical Area to look for buy trades and again if you're looking for sell trades I think you have to really kind of wait for prices to come up to the 109 fives at the moment or for lower highs lower lows to be Made in a pullback to the lower high Euro yen and the Euro yen again probably still eating some of this analysis of the charts And we did come down not quite into this demand zone But pretty much touched it by maybe or missed it by what's that maybe a few pips? So I'm gonna keep that sub that demand zone there So any really pullbacks at the moment will be buying opportunities down here If you want to be a buyer of the euro against the yen any kind of sells at the moment. There's really no Supply zones until you really get up to the highs and so it's a bit of a tricky one this one And she maybe sees something like this where it makes a bit higher highs higher lows Maybe makes a low and then a pullback up to that area there before looking at Trades, but it looks like in the on the daily It's gonna take at least a maybe a week or two or three for that scenario to possibly pay out So let's see what happens there, but I think any pullbacks into these higher areas I think are definitely short in opportunities and looking to position yourself to buy the yen next year All this later late this year in anticipation of rate hikes I think that's I think that the ceiling really has been has been reached in terms of the yen valuation against the Or the Euro valuation against the yen looking at the Aussie dollar and Aussie dollar again pulled back this week Positive news for the dollar and not so good news for the Australian dollar That's caused prices to kind of pull back a little bit I do think at the moment that there could be a bit more of a pullback overall I'm actually more bullish on the or bullish on the Australian dollar For now, but not really against the the US dollar against something like, you know The Swiss Frank or the Euro Would be you know is where I'm looking to buy and so But if you're looking to trade this pair then you're looking to buy the Australian dollar then any pullbacks into these demand zones a decent if you're looking for a short trade in terms of Cells then I would still eat this level up here Then you're looking for really a pullback into you know the high of this area here And I don't think prices are really gonna go much higher over Christmas. So yeah any pullbacks Into this so be decent for a short trade Aussie yen, which is really a measure of risk sentiment as well You know, we've had pretty much the same price action across most if not all yen pairs But this one here we did create a an actual Lower high lower low there and is pretty much the rest of the area here And again any pullbacks if you want to be a buyer of the Australian dollar down into these areas here the 94 round number If you are looking for a short trade then you're looking at a move back up into the 9650s 97s, I think that's decent area to look for any kind of short trades if you want to get short On the Australian dollar and buy the the yen gain in anticipation of a potential rate hike And gold so we got this really nice Stop hunt caused a lot of traders to you know break out traders to go long on this area taking out a hold of the stops and then it's reversed and I'm causing them a lot of pain and probably a lot of traders blow in their accounts if they don't use stop losses, so It is what it is though You know, this is the reason why you never buy at highs and never sell at lows or try never to do that because Especially being a breakout trader. Yes, there are times where you know breakouts, you know do work. Of course they work But ultimately when they don't they can have some severe Consequences especially depending on your your risk management. So It's always really best to kind of, you know, look for pullbacks anyway, and even if this, you know broke out at the time Yeah, a lot traders phone. We're in and then I would personally just wait for a bit of a pullback Right and see if there's any kind of Discounts because that's now proof of value. That's proved that that's expensive for the for the for gold at the moment And now you're just looking for discounts, right? So This is where we are So patience, you know, it's a virtue. So let's see what happens here, but in terms of Supply zone we've got a very white supply zone very very white supply And I would probably hesitate to kind of draw it like that one of the things that you can do is draw it as I would term a bit of an auction so An auction is where the where I think the range is likely to start and so I do think that 80% of auctions are typically nice By all cell areas. So 8% is that and I do think that 80% right now For this auction range is there. So I think it starts to look actually quite nice for a potential Buy, of course, this is determined upon Dollar news, right? So if the dollar continues and the feds continue to the market prices out fed cuts Yeah, it then means and there's less likely to be a recession Going into next year Then you may see likelihood that you want to see gold continue to potentially go to the downside So again, I think next week is going to be definitely important for gold I do think that we're likely to probably see some sort of auction to some degree Before eventually going higher We're in the recession cycle I say we're in it, but we're heading into it And so as we do start to head into a recession cycle Gold and precious some precious metals like, you know, silver as well tend to appreciate as The federal reserve start to, you know cut interest rates And so yeah gold should be supported over the medium to long term But who knows where prices will reverse? Of course, we just take trades If you want to take this trade and manage risk and just see whether it works out or not But ultimately from a long-term perspective Definitely more bullish on gold. So if you do want to be a buyer in and around these zones These are the levels that you're really kind of looking for I think But again, you'd have to really Look for certain triggers which would be the Devaluation in the the dollar for you to look for any kind of Long trades on gold. So yeah, that brings us to the end of the analysis part And now let's get into the trades that I took for the week So looking at two trades I took this week, which is the dollar CAD and the Pound Swiss the first the dollar CAD why take the dollar CAD from a fundamental perspective the the I thought the dollar was the stronger out of the two in terms of GDP interest rates the dollar has been suffering from some negative sentiment Which is kind of pushed prices, you know lower and lower But although prices are going lower doesn't mean necessarily that the dollar is an all-out sell Which means that in my mind that the dollar was a potential bargain at certain prices And so at the end of Friday after losing a trade on on this just because you know you kind of lose trades fundamentally the the Fundamentals kind of like still stack up then I will take another trade now many of you can see some indicators at the bottom of the chart And these are indicators that I use to enter on a daily timeframe chart and so The the one of really of interest is the middle one and that's known as volume divergence. And so all that is is basically Indicating when there's a discrepancy between volume and price and so one of the again strategies that I use is Looking at volume divergence with the other two indicators. And so At the end of Friday when I saw this I thought, you know what? That's a technical trade setup. So what I'll do is on the Monday or Sunday night. I'll enter right here with a With about a I think it was a 35. No 38 pips stop, which was around here yeah, 38 pips stop and As you can see I entered into a few positions right here, which all got triggered on the Sunday into Monday and The high of the trade ended up being a 3.4 2 to 1 I took some profit off as we went up higher and so I mean actually like one and a half positions At the moment and so I'm expecting prices to really kind of go to the upside my profit targets at the moment are gonna be One's gonna be 50% of this this auction from this ultimate higher to this low and then I've got another profit target That's at the 80% area. So around there and I'll be traveling I've showed up my stop now as well. So basically I can't lose on my stop is just below there locked in Profits and reduced my loss. So even if prices come back down now and stop me out It's still a profitable trade. So Yeah, this is looking this is looking like a good trade at the moment So let's see what happens with that and I'll keep you updated in the in the coming week or weeks Depending on when it hits profit targets. So basically stops me out, right? the next pair that I was looked at as well was on the Wednesday and Pretty much the same trade. We had prices come down into this area of of demand now one of the things that is slightly different about this is is That I posted a trade in the group that was and I was anticipating a Stop hunt to happen. In fact, let me just find that post that I posted Right. So here it was posted this on the 6th of December and this was the trade And so on in on an intraday Trade setup. This was looking very very nice. So it's planning for Stop hunt and I take stop hunts in the direction of my fundamentals I ignore ones that are against my fundamentals. And so I was looking for buys on the pound Swiss as this again fundamentally I considered the pound in a better position than the Swiss Frank in terms of monetary policy and the expectation of rate cuts and so as The Wednesday came in a Wednesday closed. I saw again Pretty much exact same setup on the indicators below and then but I decided to actually trade the stop hunt, right? just below the the demand zone So when I say trade the stop on what I mean is Get in and it's quite an aggressive entry if you don't call it aggressive, but it's a very very early entry in terms of You know, because the stop hunt hadn't actually happened and took place yet, but I was anticipating that it would I had my stop loss at I think it was 30 I think it was about 31 32 pips. So it was around here again entered into a few positions which You know turned out to be profitable and I'm in now One of the positions out of the three still In this so again, I'm planning on actually swing trade in this hopefully hopefully hopefully Towards Eva these highs So around that 80% area and then I'm probably gonna take off maybe the majority of the profits offer that one position and Then leave maybe about 20% on just to see if it can run a bit further. So let's see What happens here? But again, it's all gonna be determined by what happens this week in terms of unemployment rate GDP month for month I think if that data does come out then brilliant if it comes it comes out good then I can hold on if not let's say unemployment actually Rises, you know beyond the the forecast when the forecast comes out Then in fact and prices are to turn around then I think I think I'll just basically Cancel the trade in terms of to take whatever profits are remaining also as well I have moved my stop loss up as well just below the the low So again, even if prices come back down I've locked in profits taken profits partial profits and also locked in and reduced my my risk on the Remaining open position. So again profitable trade regardless of what happens on On the trade and so yeah, that's pretty much my two trades. I didn't enter on the euro Dollar trade I might go over that next week depending on how it turns out and Yeah, we'll see but but let's let's say actually no not even depending on how it turns out I go over it Regardless of how it turns out in terms of whether it's a winner or a loser so you can basically see the rationale behind the the trade so yep, those are two winners on the on the dollar cad and Pound Swiss no losers this week and yeah, let's see what happens and so you have a great Sunday have a great week and Speak to you all soon