 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that is our sports betting podcast here on the fan duel podcast Now we're getting you said for NFL week one Which is now just around the corner taking a look at some advantageous wind totals You can still get in the process behind wind totals with Teddy covers. He is coming up in just a little bit My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com joined here as always by Ed Fang of the power rank Dot-com you can find Ed on Twitter at the power rank Ed We have Northwestern versus Stanford coming up on Saturday. I've got Northwestern plus six and a half I believe is a number we agreed to yeah, how you feeling about that in the last couple of days? I Mean I feel like we're flipping a coin. Yeah, you know, I kind of talked myself into the stupidity of giving you the points I've kind of revised that a little bit just based on some of the research I did on Northwestern last week You know, it's it's a good bet, right? I mean it's good for this because we're we're betting merchandise You know no cash or anything, but I think that it's good to have a coin flip a line that I think is very fair Yeah, and I I had the same, you know progression there I initially felt pretty good about it, but then The the Northwestern depth chart came out and they're listing Trent Green's son as like the co-starter with Hunter Johnson, and it's like got me a little bit worried What um, I don't know if this is like some weird head thing that Pat Fitzgerald's trying to do He does he does this a lot so like that very well could be it, but it worked on me So coach Fitz congratulations on that. I'm officially freaked out So I guess we'll find out on Saturday if Stanford covers Ed as to where a Northwestern shirt on air If Northwestern covers at as to where a north or if it's Stanford covers I had to wear a Stanford shirt. So we'll see how things play out It's our first little head-to-head here on covering the spread pretty excited for that If you want a preview of week one college football go to the covering the spread podcasting We talked with Edward E. Gross about week one. We chatted BYU Utah You're probably listening to this after that game But you can check that out and then Auburn, Oregon on Saturday and Houston, Oklahoma on Sunday I'm excited for that one personally and if you want to make sure You get every podcast as they're posted and we'll be going into our regular season schedule next week with college football Wednesday NFL on Friday Make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can find an Apple podcast spotify the Google Play Store We are now on Stitcher and iHeart radio as well. You can find all those places So make sure you find covering the spread and while you're there leave a rating and review those help us out a ton So thank you to those of you who have left one already and in a future Thank you to those who decide to leave one going forward today We're talking a little NFL at we got teddy covers on and teddy is someone you recommended as a guest here and Teddy has a very interesting process. I think it's going to be a good discussion because Teddy thinks about things, you know going against analytics and trying to Counter-analytics because analytics are such a huge influencer on the market and as somebody always wants to try to find those edges Even though I am an analytics guy, I appreciate that thought process and I think that it's a pretty fun way to think about things Yeah, absolutely. I mean, this is about markets, right? And um in in some sense like you're trying to find edges in the markets It doesn't matter if you find it through analytics It doesn't matter if you find it through fading analytics And you go all the way back to money ball, which started the sports analytics revolution Uh, it was all about markets for players, right? Um and and billy bean and analytics in some cases and the fact that he was just the con man In dealing with other the gms in other places. So however you want to get it done I'm all for it Markets are always changing. We have to be reactive and I think that's a good thing that teddy talks about So let's bring teddy on in just one second. You can find him on twitter at teddy underscore covers You can find his work over at sports memo.com and a brand new show You probably heard about the 24 hour sports betting and gaming show channel That's the sports grid network and teddy does have a show on there. It's called wager talk It's from 3 to 4 p.m. Eastern every day wager talk the sports grid network pretty fun concept that they've got going over this Check out teddy on wager talk and on twitter at teddy underscore covers He is coming up in just one second. But first if you want to get in on the action Check out the fandal sportsbook and place your first bed today If you lose fandal will give you a refund of up to 500 dollars and site credit Visit sportsbook dot fandal dot com for more details terms and conditions apply Must be 21 plus and physically present in new jersey or pennsylvania or at a fandal sportsbook retail outlet gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler Let's bring on teddy savranski to talk nfl for week one and the 2019 season Covering the present Let's welcome teddy savranski your teddy covers into the show teddy We are getting into week one here just around the corner for nfl season So i'm sure a busy time of year for you. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. Although. I got to say it's like 110 in vegas and it's humid today It's monsoon season. So it's really uncomfortable outside, which Gives me all the more reason to bother the lockdown in my office Where i've been for a good portion of the summer I would never leave the house climate climate change. I would request like drones to deliver my groceries Like there would be so few activities that would actually inspire me to leave the house if it were 110 degrees I cannot stress how awful how much I would dread going outside in that scenario You know, they say it's a dry heat. You're supposed to get used to it And again, I've been out in vegas. I moved out here in 98. So this isn't my first rodeo with the summertime and What do you do out here? You hang out in the air conditioning I absolutely I think you've got that one made and teddy I think I want to talk to you about your bedding philosophy too because it seems like you've got an interesting process here And uh reading into it I think that it's going to be very different than a lot of the people we've talked to and that's a good thing You know, that's what we talked about here on covering the spread. We want to get a lot of different philosophies So teddy, I want to start here broadly and talk about, you know season long bets What's your process when you are deciding Whether to bet a wind total if you want to dive in there if you want to bet the over or the under What's kind of the process you go through in the off season in determining where you stand on a team? Well, I do a ton of work with wind totals in my mind. That is the single Most positive expectation wager you can make in the nfl Uh are the wind totals Um that are the you know, yes. No, we'll we'll to make the playoffs are right there in the same group Because again, it's not like your standard futures where you're trying to bet someone to win the super bowl We're all one team's going to win and 31 teams are going to lose Every team's either going to go over or under or push On their wind total. So, uh, I'm not trying to pick the uh, you know, the one, uh, black marvel out of a bag of You know, with, uh, you know, 31 whites and one black Like you are when you're trying to pick the super bowl winner So I find season wins in general have been a profitable for me and be the best type of bet You can make when it comes to futures for the nfl My process starts as last season goes Because what uh, I do a lot of work with strength of schedule Um, and it starts with what the team's record was last year I'm going to adjust that to shade that Based on my power rating number for their opponent On the game the week was played on the week the game was played You're going to see all this stuff at the end of the season. Oh, this is how tough their schedule was This is the final record of all their opponents and oh, so-and-so played the tough schedule That's not how it plays out You know, did you play the 49ers in week one with garoppolo or did you play him in week 16 when they had nobody? You know big difference and you can go team by team You'll find 20 teams that have a power rating at one point in the season five points higher than it was at Another point during the season at least I do. Um, because I'm going to adjust based on the injuries So what I'm going to first do the very first step of the process is Give yourself an accurate assessment of the team's record from last year. Was it legitimate or was it fraudulent? And of course, then you want to factor in the turnover margin the yards per play margin You want to look at the stats afterwards, but initially The very first part of the process is my powering numbers for each opponent they played Once you finish off at the end of last season and you know I'm going to make my powering numbers my closing powering numbers based on what Happened the year before etc etc and now I've got some numbers to work with for 2019 Then I'm going to look at the season win numbers for this year And again, you're going to see the main the mainstream numbers are atrocious when it comes to uh straight the schedule because they're going to look at last year's records Most of the analytics guys Who look at this year's schedule? They don't factor in the juice properly They're like, okay the line's eight and a half and they factor in eight and a half wins No eight and a half minus 150 is a nine eight and a half plus 150 is an eight So you don't you know the 50 cents correlates very clearly to a half win in the nfl marketplace Approximately certainly in the middle stages when you start getting down to the margins when you get to the 10 and a half It's probably worth a little bit more than 50 cents to get to 11 Or the five and a half down to five is worth a little bit more than 50 cents But for the majority of teams is about 50 cents equals a half win And so i'm going to adjust this year's strength of schedule based on the Markets and the juice in those markets And then you start to work You know, this is all the pre process then you're like, okay This is what happened between last year and this year for this team. You look at all, you know the off season goals I always mark look at all the off season columns at the beginning. This is their goals This is what they want to accomplish. This is what the team needs And then you go through at the end of free agency and at the end of the draft Did they actually accomplish those goals is the offensive line an area of strength? Did they build develop the build depth on the defensive line? And I put a lot of effort and a lot of time into the lines The trenches the offensive line the defensive line because You know, we know where the media attention goes. It's going to go to the fantasy players It's going to go to the skill position talent And the reality is that games are won and lost in the trenches every week And if you find a good offensive line, you're going to make money with that team You find a good defensive line, you're going to make money with that team You find a bad offensive line. You can make money betting against them, etc, etc So, um, I guess that's the process or at least a good portion that I could probably go on a lot longer Yeah, no, that's excellent. Teddy and you and Jim probably talk for hours about the offensive line And I would love to listen in on that. Um, just want to say teddy I do factor in the prices when I look at market totals. Um, so As the numbers guy But I wanted to get back into what you said about last season and in terms of how you adjust your power rankings for the situation of that team Um, obviously quarterback is a huge thing. So if uh, Jimmy grapple was playing versus not like that's a huge thing But how deep do you go? Like are you saying? Oh, their top corner was out So I'm going to make that a new team because at some point you reach a complexity Issue in terms of, you know, how many different versions of a team that you want to account for, right? Well, I don't want to overthink it. What I want to look at is my powering number for that team that week You know, I I'm not, you know I'm sure you guys do the same thing you make lines for every game. I make lines for every, you know NFL game making lines are easy, you know powering a powering team home field, blah, blah, blah There's your line, you know, and generally my lines tend to be You know fairly close to the market not always but fairly close Um, uh, well, obviously when there's differences, that's when you're going to get way, you know You're going to get wagers, uh down but in terms of how So if if I adjusted a team's power rating because their core their top cornerback is out Maybe a half point Then I'm going to use that power rating if I didn't adjust the team's power rating because the corner back with top corner was out Because the backup's just as good or there's no discernible difference between that team with one guy missing Then I don't adjust it. It's just whatever my number was That's what I use And teddy, is that a manual adjustment? You know, are you saying jimmy garoppolo is worth x points and stuff like that? Are you doing that manually by hand? I do everything manually. I am not a formula guy. You guys are the formula guys And I find that the markets, you know, in the betting markets In 2019 are so tilted towards the math models That I find my edge Going against the math models finding places where my whole goal when I'm looking at this the numbers for week one Where are the stats lying? Where the point where what where are the numbers giving an incorrect assumption about these teams? And that's my entire focus is what numbers are lying and what numbers affecting the betting marketplace in particular Are lying because as you know, you know in 2019 It's all about the advanced analytics in the markets and the public has no impact whatsoever on any of these point spreads And the mainstream media has no impact on these point spreads And it's all you know the analytics guys who are pounding and who who have done well enough to be pounding limit bets all over the world But they're also very comfortable winning 54 percent of their wagers and losing 46 Which anyone would be but when you're making 300 bets a week It's very different from a guy who's trying to pick and choose and you know, let's find a couple of different spots So so teddy, I know you're a quantitative guy too. Like, you know 10 15 years ago That was completely different right in the sense that the markets I mean, I could tell you when the markets changed the markets changed. It was 2010 to 2012 was when the that during that era the Stuff that I had been using which was ahead of the markets in 2009 and to that was really 2011 2012 Were there were the big years with the all of a sudden all the analytics are taking over the betting market There's a lot of stuff that I was using in 2009 2010 that worked really well By 2012 that was all baked into the number And I didn't realize it at the time. I had a miserable season And i'm like, okay, you better figure out what the f just happened Because you know, this can't you know, you can't do that again next year And I didn't you know, I readjusted the philosophy but what I saw in that analysis in 2012 2013 was that What the markets were Is not what they are. It's always evolving and the analytics that had been a piece of the equation prior to that Then became the primary piece of the equation around that stage and it's been that way ever since Yeah Very interesting and I think that the thing that I like about this teddy is that you are considering the context And that's something that I try to do a lot with baseball DFS, you know consider the context in which it's happening You know Zach Renke at the beginning of 2019 is not the same Zach Renke that we're seeing right now And so I like to look for most relevant samples and I think that like That it sounds like you're kind of in a similar realm here Are there specific places you look for to try to identify places that the analytics community and thus the betting markets Maybe or a value you mentioned offensive line. Is that kind of the first place you go to? That's a hard question to answer Yeah, because it's a very nuanced question, you know, and it's not a it's not this When someone says what's your process? My process is everything. Okay, right? Everything I could think about this game, you know, that's what we do You know, you wake up thinking about it. You go through the day thinking about it You're looking for you're looking for any additional information on the game You are looking at all the stats and the hard numbers on the game. You're looking for any nuance You know, hey, wow, you know this offensive the line coach Guess what he worked for them last year and he's going to know the blocking schemes better any little nuance You can find anything you can find to give you an edge that's not baked into the points spread Is worth searching for it really is So, uh, when you say, you know, give me the give me the process. It's not it's not an easy question to answer It's you know, the process is always ongoing But i'm not someone that's going to run a program and say, all right Well, I like the chiefs and the colts and the cowboys this week and i'm done You know, yeah That's the my my powering differentials is the first piece of the equation But it's certainly not the only piece of the equation Yeah, absolutely makes a lot of sense. So after you count for all these things when when you're telling us about how you Look at nfl wind totals. Um, are there any teams that you'd like to tell us about that? Stand out in the wind totals market Oh, yeah, there's a bunch of teams just stand out in the wind totals market. Um Just something maybe illustrates Let me just thank you for one second. I'll give you one, you know, because there's there's so many that are I found this year to be fairly attractive uh in the nfl betting markets. Um And i'm just trying to think of one that maybe that that i'm still interested in that where the line hasn't gone Nuts yet because i've made every bet Uh that i'm gonna make as of this moment. Let's talk about the cleveland browns for a minute Okay, all right, which is the ultimate public team this year, right? Sure. I'm very bullish on the cleveland browns Okay, I am call me a cleveland browns believer And when you start all the people who are telling me well Cleveland and they haven't they haven't when you look at this roster. Okay top to bottom Find me another roster in the nfl. That's more talented than cleveland. Name me one Name me one go Um Yeah, I can't even say chiefs because like that defensive line for cleveland is going to blow the chiefs defense out of the water They were the first thing that came to mind, but I can easily counteract that argument. So I can't think of one necessarily Kim browns aligned at nine wins and everyone's like that's crazy cleveland can't be lined at nine You great out there 53 man roster. They're gonna be as good as anyone in the nfl, you know, um and There is a clear There appear to be a clear sharp market hatred for the browns and the reason is It seems to me because the public likes the browns That's not a legitimate reason. Okay and For a sharp betting marketplace that was in love with the browns analytics Three, you know, three years ago when they didn't win a game I bet them every week the the year after when they won when they win a one game Um, you know every week. Oh the wise guy browns money is coming in. Look at the brown stats They're brown. You know the turnover margin is all turnovers. Um, I like cleveland. Chicago is another team. Okay at the beginning of the process My first process man, this bears team I'm my absolute first gut reaction. We got to look at bears under, you know, look at the turnover margin Look at the turnover margin. We don't believe in trubisky. Look at the turnover margin, right? And then Like oh, they lost fangio fangio. He's the guy. They lost fangio. The bears have to stink this year. No one believes in trubisky Then you read the reports at a camp. You're like the defense is dominating every single practice And then you watch the defense on the field in the preseason and the third stringers are getting 93 yard pick sixes Okay, you know teams don't have third stringers that can do that the bears do It's the best defense in the nfl. I'm not betting the bears under and the Analysts guys all about betting against chicago this year. Look at the turnover margin. Look at the turnover margin I'm not betting the bears under the total. So This just is some some concepts. I guess that uh, you know, I like the bears and I like the uh, the browns I think a little bit more than uh, than many of my sharp colleagues Interesting and the browns went very interesting too because it fits well with what you said was your process You know, you want to account for situation and the browns and the situation changed thrive last year and the situation is the same Going into this year the ad-oh the beckham. So I understand that for sure. Let's talk about a team whose situation Very recently changed and that's a colts their win total initially shot down to six and a half wins with the Andrew Luck news of his retirement. That's a fan dual sports book It's now seven with minus one ten on the over and the under So ted I want to hear like your process here with the colts where he has some late breaking information You see that number at seven. What's your thought process in the colts ending into 2019? It's a it's a it's a very difficult question to be the answer the answer for me for the colts is we'll see Um, I I thought I was all bright. I got a nice ticket I bet it right when the line is open plus three and a half against the chargers in week one And the line was you know, it was the two days later was plus three. I'm like, yeah, I got a good number That was a good bet oops Plus three and a half not so good And it's not like boysy florida state where they give the money back because it's a different venue Your corded back gets hurt. So be it. I'm stuck with that wager now. There's nothing I'm gonna do about it There were a lot of things I really liked about indy coming into the season I mean again from a depth perspective the colts are deep You know, they really are strong in the trenches both sides of the football Uh, love their off season loved what they did in the off season. They made a bunch of wind now moves in the off season And now they're not in wind now. I mean jacoby bristad is is a touchdown weaker than andrew luck. Um minimum You know, uh, literally a minimum. I mean, uh, so Whatever thoughts I had about value with the one thing that we've learned in the nfl You know back in brett hunt. I'm like, oh the packers are just fine The backers will be fine with brett huntley But the coaching staff didn't trust him. So brett hunley didn't open it up And then lo and behold, there's green bay losing her home to detroit. I'm like, Jesus And of course that coaching staff's gone. Thank you. Uh, but you know, you find situations where, you know, it's not just about How you see that quarterback. It's how the coaching staff sees that quarterback, you know, I'll never forget that Hunley game really made me I'm like, hunley can play. He's okay. He makes the plays with his feet and the coaching staff is like You better dink and dunk everything. Don't take any shots and make sure that all 11 guys are right in the box Um, jacoby bristad has shown me very little As an nfl potential starting quarterback Uh, he's no, I mean, and luck was as good as a quarterback. There isn't a league. Um, maybe the best You know, and yes, that includes erin rogers and tom brady and anybody else you want to include That's who andrew luck was when it comes to fourth quarter comebacks when it comes to You know, winning percentage against opponents with a winning record when it comes to record as a dog luck Luck stats were there the whole time Uh, so I think you have to make a significant adjustment for indy Uh, and not just indy Here's the other factor you have to adjust every team in their division You also have to adjust every team on their schedule Because guess what? A probable loss is now a 50 50 game a 50 50 game is now maybe their favorite So right the win total ramifications of the injury are significant around the league Even though the only win total that got adjusted. Yeah, it's the example is colt's win total Yeah, and and I got so much respect for the fanto sports book and what they do Um, but when when colt's went from six to seven Nothing else moved and you know, my my number is kind of Some of my algorithms kind of bogged at that because they're like, you know If if colts are going up to seven then something should change in that division as well So we'll see how that all shakes out. Teddy. I did want to ask you, uh, you said you liked their addition I presume you're talking about jesson hueson Bring him in on the defensive line um Tell me about that defensive line because i'm not enthused about how they've performed over the last couple years Indy indy. Yeah, the the depth is there for the colts and that to me is the number one factor The second factor it's for the colts and again, I can run through a bunch of personnel I don't want to run through the personnel. I think that a lot of times you spend too much time Damn, oh, this guy's good and that guy's okay and this, you know but When I went through the colts roster and graded out your players graded out your free agents graded out your draft choices Watching them in the preseason And again, you want to you know, you want to take a lot of preseason stuff with the grain assault Especially after the first quarter But you do want to pay attention to the first quarter those guys are on the field and these defensive line They've been fine and their defensive numbers were fine last year. I look at the defensive line as a unit of strength Maybe not a star studded unit for the colts But certainly not a unit that teams are gonna I don't look I don't think teams are gonna run all over indy The pass rush may be dicey But in terms of stopping the run, I think indy's gonna be pretty darn good at that At least on paper, they look good at that and in the preseason, they've been solid All right, teddy, uh, you asked me for a team more talented than the browns. I got I got a question for you Yeah, what about the eagles? Because when I think about offensive line depth and I think about defensive line depth The eagles are a team that stand out. They have issues a cornerback to be sure But they've got the pass catchers. They've got the quarterback and karson wence What are your thoughts about them heading into 2019 and as someone who does value What a team can do up front on an offensive and defensive line. I'll keep this very simple I don't bet a lot of over tens for wind totals. Yeah, you know, you tend to I don't like to expect teams to win 11 games. I did bet the eagles over 10 wins this year I'm a firm believer in philadelphia and that's a you know with the backup quarterback situation It's a concern. I mean if wence goes down, they were in trouble. Anyway, if wence goes down that that bet is dead but When you talk about an offensive line that's supposed to be able to protect the quarterback and a big quarterback who's gone through a Lot of conditioning stuff in the offseason Carson wence is that guy, you know, you want a long shot future, you know wence to win mvp might be something You would uh, you would look at All right, I dig it. So we're on the same page there eagles are a team that I've been very interested in for this year as well So let's talk about week one a little bit because I think that there could be some interesting value You may see up there When you look at the week one lines and this could be something that you grabbed in it open It may not be available anymore What were some things that stood out to you based on the offseason research you put into each team? Well, I mean the first I again, I made one bet, right, you know, right when I saw the numbers I'm like colt's plus three and a half Great enough great bet. Uh, that was the one. I'm literally I mean, they stood out to me like a sore thumb I'm like in, you know, this that I'm like that one because anytime you're talking about making a bet In april or may or june for a game that isn't going to be played in september The only reason to make that bet is if the number is not going to be there You know, and that was the number that wasn't going to be there I bet the ravens at four and a half against the dolphins. Well, what's that now? Well, uh, it is five Yeah, I mean, I got a you know a little bit the better But I thought that line as a decent chance to go to six or seven and I'm like let's let's lock in at four And I'm like it's not going to go down Based on, you know, I was fairly confident that so that's uh, that's that's two bets that I made pretty early Four week one and I grabbed a seven with uh with the Texans against the saints Um, that's one that stood out to me. Of course, you know, you guys know Peyton's track record week one and two, right? Oh, last year you got torched not last year go back five years find me a points for recovered week one or two Zero probably none. Peyton's never never has them ready coming out of camp So I took the seven with uh with Texan oh and 10 ats the first two weeks of the season the last five years for uh for new Orleans Interesting Now what about when a team in their early season performance deviates a lot from what you expected in the season because You know, we do want to take advantage of relevant data and stuff like that How much how reactive are you to are you in week one? Or do you think that markets tend to overreact to what they see on the field in week one? From if there's a team on let's say we're talking about the eagles We're like I like the eagles or the browns I'm like I like the browns or if the bears get beat by the packers The bears I might adjust a little bit more But if I see a team that I like and they lay an egg week one I will adjust very little if at all If they lay an egg week one and then lay another egg in week two We have to adjust and significantly adjust You know a single bad game. No two bad games three bad games but You also want to know why did they have a bad game? You know Was it again? Oh, it's just one of those games they kept on getting Are they getting in in their own way and the penalties? You know and every time they would have first and 10 and we you know and then it's first and 20 You know, uh, there are games they're like, you know, that just happens that way And it's just an off game and you don't over adjust And then you say all right. Well, let's see they they lost this week because The offset line couldn't block anyone and they got crushed and the pressure at quarterback in his face to hold it Well, now you got to think about hey, you know, were there offset line injuries Did offset line not as good as we thought it was? You better adjust fast but You cannot over adjust or overreact to a single week one performance good or bad Right. Yeah, and I feel like we see that a lot in college football, you know, there's such a short Season and then you get one bad game and and things cut tend to overreact Which is why like week two in college football Let me jump in real quick ed because I actually went back and did a study. You'll like this. They did some analytics Awesome I could do the study about the best point spread teams in college football over a five-year span Okay, there was one commonality The commonality was they all suffer the the the the most common theme was the very best point spread teams in college football On a year-on-year out basis All suffer an ugly performance the first three when one one of the first few weeks of the season So somebody gets wiped off the field in a game. They were supposed to win or You know, they have a step-up game and they lose by eight touchdowns or whatever it is Those tend to be then and they're actually a decent team Those are the teams that ended the season nine and three 10 and two ts The team even eight and four, you know, those are and then they've already lost an ugly one Those are the teams you can make the most money with their teams that had a single bad showing In one of the first few weeks interesting Of course, that doesn't work for a team like Louisville last year, but I completely Get that right because the market kind of looks at that in the first two weeks and says, you know And just kind of overestimates the shift, right Well, where do the markets struggle early? And the market struggled with teams like Louisville last year the market struggle at the top and at the bottom The bottom feeders are always overvalued early in the season often overvalued early and I shouldn't say always But, you know, the really bad teams the teams where the bottom has fallen out They're not bad. They're not bed-ons Right right week one And they're not bed-ons moving forward I mean, Louisville last year they quit on patrino pretty early and patrino was cash in his check and that was that Right, you know, it was it was ugly But, you know, you'll see that in the nfl as well where You know the Very early in the season the number one thing I want to do is bet on the best teams that bet against the worst teams That's another reason why I played with baltimore week one. Miami's garbage, okay I cashed an over win bet on the dolphins last year and I've never been luckier in my life I mean, they were literally every game they won they deserve to lose Including the grunt game Which was the one that cashed my season win bet But, amy is there's nothing to like about the dolphins on any position on the field, you know And this is when you see teams at the very bottom They're not necessarily priority to rate for week one So I'm always looking to back the very best teams and bet against the very worst That's my september strategy Interesting. Tell me honestly, this is one last question. I mean you definitely mentioned about how you're very reluctant to bet over 10 wins Uh, is it symmetrical on the bottom side of the nfl? So for example, are you more likely to bet? Under five wins for a team that you think is very bad. Maybe say like a miami No, I I rarely bet the under fives and the over tens, you know, I The the sweet spot for me always used to be, you know You find the nine and a half wind team that's down and you bet them under and you find the you know Six and a half wind team that's on the way up and you bet them over The markets are a little bit more mature with that stuff now So you don't you don't find it quite as easily. So you have to you know, sometimes get out of your little comfort zone um, and I will play more I mean, I I wouldn't talk anyone out of betting the dolphins under, you know, uh, not talk you out of it. Uh, but At you know, I was seeing four and a halfs out there even on my ammy It's not a bet that I've gotten in the window with but you do feel like it's symmetric, right? I mean bet towards the mean whether it's hard to look. Absolutely. Great All right, that is Teddy Savransky or teddy covers. You can find him on twitter at teddy underscore covers Teddy that's a fun conversation. I enjoyed hearing about the way you think about the NFL I think it's a really fun process and one that can be profitable, especially early in the season. So teddy Appreciate it and hopefully we can get you on again sometime soon. Yeah. I mean the NFL has been good to me Uh, I can't I cannot complain about the NFL Uh, what I think at 62 start to finish last year 58% over the last four years and the wind totals are over 70% lifetime So, uh, that takes back, you know, close to two decades. So, I mean, uh, I got no problems I'll talk NFL anytime you guys want. Uh, thanks for having me on the show and good luck with a new podcast Thank you so much. Thank you so much. We appreciate it. Cheers Covering the future One final big thank you to Teddy Savransky for swinging by for today and talking NFL again He's at teddy underscore covers on twitter You can find his show wager talk on the sports grid network from three to four p.m Eastern every day and also find his writing work over at sports memo dot com and ed I was pretty excited about that conversation going in and it lived up to it because I think that teddy, you know It's always good to have those perspectives and kind of get Regrounded and you know, what betting actually is and that's trying to exploit markets and where they go Yeah, you know, I mean, it's it's all about finding an edge and I was really interested about just how that process has changed and and you know to the exact year in which kind of analytics took over and You know, I kind of felt like I I saw that in some ways as well Like, you know, there was a lot more value when I first started doing it kind of my team rankings In 2008 And now there's there's just no way that you could find value with only my team rankings You you need a lot. You need a lot of other tricks these days So yeah, I I always Really enjoy the historical perspective and teddy really gave it to us. Yeah, absolutely And it was a really fun conversation So thanks teddy for coming on and I'll be sure to check out his work again at sports memo dot com for that And wager talk. Let's move now to covering the future and this is our final Yeah, I guess kind of show before we get to week one. So what do you have on tap for covering the future for this week? So I was digging in. Uh, I wanted to add another, uh, college football win total for for members of my site at the power rank It's like army 10 wins man. I mean, this is like an easy under right they got michigan. That's one loss already So I just got to find another loss another two losses So I'm going through the schedule and take a break to walk around. I was like crap. They play 13 games So we scrapped army Uh, so instead I want to talk about Seattle since this is the NFL part of the show And you know, they were they were good last year They were 10 and 6 and and they made the playoffs and let's talk about the good things about that team Russell Wilson the quarterback. Uh, he's done in at an elite level Um over the last seven years of his career Now let's talk about the bat. Um, the underlying statistics for that Seattle team were not good Uh, I'm going to tell you about success rate and I define that as 50 of the necessary yards on first down would be a success 70 of yards on second down and all the necessary yards on third and fourth down And when I look at success rate, um, and I just restrained the schedule the offense was 25th And part of the reason is the Seattle insists on running the ball They do it more than any other team in the NFL 52 of plays last week and I talked about that a little bit on one of my preview episodes on the football analytic show about just, uh How silly that is and uh, the equivalent of of running the ball um When you have a quarterback like Russell Wilson, it's it's it's just not the right thing to do But Seattle was effective at scoring points last year You know, they were actually eighth in the NFL in terms of points per game. So how does that jive? Right? Well, one of the reason was was turnovers Seattle was really good at preventing turnovers part of that was russia wilson because he tends to turn over the ball less than than, uh Less accurate quarterbacks, but a big part of it was fumbles They only lost four fumbles last year even though the offense put it on the ground 18 times And anytime that you're recovering 14 out of 18 turnovers Um that tends to be very random and not something that's repeatable coming into the next season On defense. I also don't really like this team as well. Um, they were 25th and adjusted success rate on defense Uh, they also no longer have frank clark. Um, they also no longer have Earl thomas So though he didn't really play a lot of games last year And then their best defensive lineman jaren reid is suspended for six games as well So Seattle's eight and a half wins and I think this all comes down to How many wins do you think russia wilson is worth? That that could be eight and a half Wins, uh, I personally don't think he's quite worth that much. I think he's worth about seven and a half wins I like uh under seattle the win total And I think that the interesting thing about this team that Makes them very difficult for me to diagnose is that going into last year I thought the defensive personnel was bad And I made a lot of decisions around that. Okay, and even with that personnel being bad They still Outperformed expectations, right? That's a concern for me because it could be a An acknowledgement of the system on defense. Uh, maybe the coaching is just really good there But it's so hard. I feel like to repeat that especially given the guys that they lost like Frank clark like the system can make him better But can it turn him into You know this guy who's worth a first round pick an immediate contract I don't know. I like it's very hard for me to see that being a thing So I think I am in agreement with you on seattle where I'm skeptical of A lot of things that they have going and I'm the skeptical of the talent And now they have a bunch of injuries a wide receiver to dk mech calf and david more They're both banged up. So it's kind of just kind of lock it in the a bunch of dudes Yeah, well that's concerning and I should have mentioned doug baldwin retired. So right top target last year And so and he was like a shell of himself But a shell of himself doug baldwin is probably still better than geron brown Yeah, probably I mean lock so lock. It's very good. And I think he's gonna be fine as as the top option there And they were particularly good connecting on the deep ball last year Russell Wilson was the most efficient deep ball passer in the nfl last year based on expected points But they just don't they don't do it enough like I do on a perth row basis But like If you have a dude who can like chuck it and succeed, why not let him chuck it and succeed? So when I was looking into the analysis Seattle ran 52 of the time, right? If they only if they ran 41 of the time, which was the nfl average that would have been 119 more plays so Essentially running the ball those 119 plays was like taking Russell Wilson out of the game and putting in josh rosen and from a pure standpoint Now I love that that that way of looking at it. What? I love that way of looking at it Appreciate that and it's like the analogy isn't perfect. We're just talking about yards per play They got you know, 4.7 yards per play on the ground, which is pretty good. It's above the nfl average Josh rosen threw for about 4.5 yards per attempt last year, which was dead last in the nfl Obviously, if you throw it more you're more likely to throw a pick, especially if it's josh rosen but But yeah, I mean that's that's the kind of thing Above and beyond just the kind of talent deficiencies that I think this team has like if they're going to continue to pound the ball It's not going to work out well and and inevitably like if if if this season goes like I think it's going to go I think they're going to lose some games and you're you they're going to be down late in games And they're going to they're going to be throwing the ball because Even they know that you have to throw the ball late in the game when you're down So we could see more of Russell Wilson. They might not lead the nfl and rushing quite as much as they did last year Um, they probably still will But we'll see how shakes out I think that they are a team that I want to wait and see what they do in week one because the rumblings out of camp are Encouraging because they're talking about throwing to their backs more on first and second down, which is You know warren sharp talks about how like that's like a cheat code Like that's a very efficient play to throw to your running backs on first and second down and the fact that they're valuing that It makes me think maybe that they're listening to the numbers But I want to see it in action. But that means they have to throw the ball Right exactly like that. Yeah, exactly But it I think it means that they may have consulted numbers at some point And that makes me curious because if they decided to run an optimal offense, they could be really good I just don't know what they're going to do that So I am watching them closely the first couple weeks more so than like any other team pretty much I'll be watching seattle very closely. I want to talk to you about the ravens And I it's still kind of you know going back to what teddy said where we have the colts change From andrew luck retiring But we haven't seen a lot of movement in the other markets And I think that the ravens are one of the benefactors of the andrew luck retirement because We talked about can city when the super bowl earlier in the week, but I think that This injury to andrew luck also impacts potential wildcard teams too because going to the year You know you look at indy you look at houston Maybe jacksonville as teams that could be in contention for a wildcard spot that afc south had more than one team That was a playoff level team which impacts teams that want to win the wildcard because the charges and the chiefs One of those teams is probably going to take up one of the other ones because they're both very good teams You know durin janes, maybe impacts that but either way Seeing the colts take a dive Definitely impacts the availability of wildcards elsewhere And I think that what that does is it opens up the possibility to for us to get in a wildcard team From the afc north and I didn't really see that as being A huge likelihood prior to this and the ravens right now are plus 184 to make the playoffs That fandals sportsbook that's implied odds of 35.2 percent And I like that number quite a bit because that afc north is pretty wide open Nobody has odds better than 35 percent right now according to number fires power rankings And the ravens are actually at 30.4 percent to win the division and to get it at plus 184 They're implied odds making the playoffs are 35.2 percent their overall playoff odds at number fire are 47.2 percent So that's a really good number there And I think that you could look to this ravens team and you know The what is on the downside or that lamar jackson could be a bad passer He did struggle at times last year But he wasn't abysmal as a passer his rushing abilities can open up lanes for him as a passer and that that has value They added playmakers hollywood brown is there. It looks like he's getting healthier now Miles Boykin is there extreme athletic freak justice hill same thing And they also added earl thomas to the back end of that secondary and They did lose big players like cj moses a good player True all sucks has gone But I think that adding an earl thomas leaps help helps mitigate some of the guys they lost defensively And I think that the overall thought process for me is that I don't think betting markets are accounting enough yet For the ripple effects of the andre luck retirement And that's exactly what teddy was talking about where You know people aren't adjusting anyone outside of the colts and they should be and to me He just opened up another wild card spot and the ravens are one of those teams that could exploit it They could win the afc north outright or they could wind up doing it this way So you look at the raven schedule. They open at miami as teddy mentioned and then they are at home against arizona They're probably going to start 2 and 0 and if that does happen This line will move into hurray. So I would snatch this one now Before week one betting the ravens plus 184 to make the playoffs And I don't think I've heard your thoughts on the ravens yet We talked about them a bit with evan silva as a team that he liked But what are your personal thoughts on this team betting into year two with lemar jackson? Yeah, I mean, I don't know whether lemar jackson can throw the ball at an nfl level. Um, which matters Kind of yeah, no it definitely matters um You know in the quarterbacks kind of an important position kind of need to throw the ball I definitely believe lemar jackson is a is a talented guy Uh, actually kind of got a little bit of an inside scoop from a student here that uh was in their camp And uh, you know kind of confirmed what what we all think about lemar jackson um, I think the kid can improve But I think what you see with a with with any quarterback coming from the college level going into the nfl There becomes a ceiling with their accuracy And their ability to deliver the ball and Yeah, I just have my doubts I I need to see it from lemar jackson to to be higher on this team Um, and again, I think the division is really interesting Because we should actually do some talking about Pittsburgh who I think is also going to be a pretty good team And so and then you obviously have cleven that we already talked about in this show So it could be a very fascinating division. Um And with baltimore Yeah, I mean the defense was great too. I mean, they were by far the the best defense But a lot of my numbers last year Uh and adding a healthy if you're real thoms is healthy. Uh, that's right. That's a big if what sure. That's a big if for sure Um, yeah, so yeah, uh, those are kind of my thoughts on the the reasons Yeah, I think they'll be interested to watch and I think that they have a wide range of outcomes But I think that that number at plus 184 accounts for that, uh, so interested to see what they can do in week one like I mean, it's the dolphins. We probably can't learn a lot there But we might learn a lot against the chiefs in week three. Uh, so that'll be interesting team to track for sure But overall the thought process is take advantage of the luck retirement before all the markets do Ed that's all we got for today again next week. We could go into our regular season schedule with college football Wednesday nfl on friday. What's happening over at the power rank before then? Yeah, the the 2019 preview series on my podcast the football analytics show Is wrapping up Episode 10 goes up tonight. There'll be three overrated college football teams for for 2019 um I kind of spilled the beans on some of the things I talked about with seattle on monday But that's probably my favorite episode and i'm glad you like my rosin analogy because That's kind of why I like that one the most. Yeah Um, but yeah, uh 10 episodes 10 minutes each Uh, you can check them out. Uh get a little bit of insight into the work I do and how I can Help you predict what's going to happen this season And that's the football analytics show wherever you get your podcast you can find that you can find ed on twitter at the power Rank and all his work over at the power rank dot com I am on twitter as well at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you goes out to calvin theobald our producer for keeping us on the air here and a big Thank you to teddy cover so swinging on by and talking about the nfl in his process For 2019 do not forget to rate and review the podcast and subscribe wherever you are listening We really do appreciate it and make sure you can get those podcasts right as they go up next week everybody enjoy Week one true week one of college football thursday friday saturday sunday a lot of great games in the docket So enjoy the football and we'll talk to you again next week. This has been covering the spread here on the fan dual podcast network