 The following is a presentation of T F N N trading hour with your host David White call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044 now, David White, and welcome all to another exciting edition of the power trading hour with me, your humble, lovable, inscrusively soft host. And what are we going on? We'd like to come to you at this time every day. The following takes place between 2 p.m. Anyway, as we start the show off today, 29 96 and three quarters is the last tick I see on the S N P cash. Of course, that's off the 3010 that we had earlier in the morning on Microsoft earnings. Microsoft's kind of rolled back down to 137 138. We'll take a look at it a minute. I was never impressed with the earnings. I was very impressed by the enormous amounts of people telling me how it blew away everything that they ever thought of. Except I'd seen all the whisper numbers. Everybody had been talking about for two weeks and it didn't come close. We've got a absolutely one of those kind of thunderstorms going on here in Tampa today. So if I lose you, it's not the deep state trying to get rid of me. It is probably just an internet connection issue. So I will give you fair warning before other things going on in the markets today. Just a lot of very low volume this morning as we started off. Just 3.4 billion shares on the CBOE consolidated tape. So again, we push higher. There is no volume. We go lower and we get a lot of job boning. I do want to talk about what happened yesterday. That was one of the Fed officials came out with this paper that later, I think by 7.30 maybe by 8. We were being told by other Fed officials was just kind of one of these things where you kind of dream up something that happened, some scenario. And we probably really shouldn't have paid attention to the idea that somebody at the Fed said that it would be a half a percent cut. But almost nothing, almost no retraction of that today. I did watch a few minutes this morning to see if anybody actually talked about it. They tried to walk it back, but they did it very quietly. So I'm telling you right now, I don't think that there's more than a 2% chance that we get a half a percent rate cut. I think it's 98% chance we get a quarter point raise or a cut, excuse me, and that that is it. Not exactly sure why someone would do that. I always wonder whether or not they're just stupid. Or maybe their brother or sister or wife, somebody that it's not easy to find had puts or calls at a particular time going right into options expiration. Always kind of smell a rat in these kind of operations to push these things up. And maybe for the most part of the day, try to get it as close to 3,000 on the S&P cash because that's where you can destroy lots and lots of money. You destroy the puts and you destroy the calls and because people like big round numbers, they tend to buy things like puts and calls at 3,000. But again, I wasn't thinking a whole lot. I didn't even blink when I saw 3,010 or 3,011 this morning on the S&P cash. I really didn't have any belief that would stay there from the beginning of the morning. We actually went and bought or are buying more puts this afternoon on the market. I think a lot of times you look at these things and they scary a little. But at the same time to me, it's like a gift because I can add more short positions on stocks that spike for no reason at all. Anyway, we've got a little bit of time going on. Why don't we do a little history and we'll get in on to some of the other stuff going on the rest of the week. So let's do our history. It is a little bit of history repeating it on this day in 1799 and during Napoleon Bonaparte's Egyptian campaign, the French soldiers discover and recover a black basalt slab inscribed with the ancient writing near the town of Rosetta about 35 miles north of Alexandria. The irregularly shaped stone contained fragments of passages written in three different scripts. Greek, Egyptian and hieroglyphics and Egyptian demonic. The ancient Greek and the Rosetta stone told archaeologists that it was inscribed by priests honoring the king of Egypt, King Ptolemy V. I thought maybe I don't most people don't know what it actually says. There's a little bit on there of telling people that they're great because they're supporting the current king or what do you call them? I guess they weren't dictators back there, they were just kings, right? But the most important thing that I was on this artifact was tax exemptions. You think that there's something new? You think I'm kidding when I say that all history just repeats or at least rhymes. This was three-fourths about tax exemptions for various things that the Mr. King wanted to get things going. And that's how we figured out all the hieroglyphs on the walls. In fact, it took about 30 years for them to actually find it. The market dropped on Q. Anyway, I'm not going to be surprised to see a lot of destruction here before the end of the day. As we've been saying all week long, 2975 is where these options have been placed. So if we get some real action here into the end of the day, I think that not only was the Fed speak with a half-point rate cut at the end of the month, toilet paper, engineered, and maybe just to help out somebody on Wall Street so one day they get a job there, you never know. Maybe the money wasn't paid yesterday, maybe it's being paid forward. But I smelled a rat yesterday when I saw the Microsoft earnings, and then I heard someone tell me something very different on CNBC. I always start to get a little bit antsy out here when people are telling me, as, what was it, President Johnson? I'm going to pee on my leg and tell me it's raining, but it certainly seemed like that. We'll talk more about Microsoft's earnings, but it looked to me like it was nowhere close when I first saw it, and it was up a buck. I thought, well, that's okay. This got nowhere close to the whisper numbers that everybody been talking about for several weeks. Everything kind of pushed us up into the end. Not going to be surprised if we get right back down to where we were before it started yesterday. Around noon, I guess. We'll be back in a minute. Headed by Steve Dahl, Taz understands that in today's technological world, the use of top flight software applications and technical analysis expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market. You also gain access to the webinar that Steve Dahl and Tom O'Brien just hosted, the best way to use the Taz Profile Scanner to profit. This webinar archive is available for all subscribers immediately upon signing up. All new subscriptions also come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have nothing to risk. 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Got a couple of the things I'm looking at that I kind of like here. But first thing we want to talk about is Microsoft's earnings or I wouldn't say lack of good company, but a company doesn't matter how strong they're growing. They can be overpriced. I suspect that's exactly what we've got in Microsoft. They were talking up the whisper numbers all the way until last week. That's why I thought that it would be a disappointment. I thought maybe back down to 128. In fact, I still think that Microsoft is going to come back now to about 128 again with the rest of the market and probably through waiting for the, I want to say, waiting for the Fed. And that, of course, that's the end of the month. So we've got a little bit of time. But I think we've got a fairly decent week where there's not going to be any kind of catalyst from higher prices and a lot of worry about what the Fed's going to do over the next week. But I think when traders start looking this weekend at Microsoft, making a new high and then coming back right back in below the 3x3 or 9-day moving average, closing a little weaker, I don't think there's going to be a lot out here for people to think that the market isn't as fully valued as it can get. Now, maybe we get kind of a pullback and after the Fed, we can find some kind of blow. But I think we've got a fairly decent seven to 10 days of weaker markets and probably until the, let's take a look at the calendar here, until we get into fund buying, which is really going to be, maybe Thursday and Friday of the end of the month. I got a sneeze here and nothing like air conditioning to make you sneeze down here in Florida. Anyway, what I was saying is a lot of these stocks have either missed or disappointing on what everybody thinks is good earnings. But when everybody tells me one thing, I always kind of see if maybe they're wrong. And it's something I've done my whole life, I think. And that is, if someone tells me something, the first thing I do is check it out because I don't believe a lot of people. I would tell the story, but I was learning to fly when I was about 14 or 15 and went to this camp in a little town, a little college town in the middle of the summer for a handful of days, starting to do ground school and learning a little bit about it. So the first thing they do is take us probably 150 kids and all these adults and they all have us do a pre-flight on the plane. And we're in alphabetical order for some reason. I think I'm either the last or second to the last. So everybody's been around this plane 150 times already. And I'm sitting there and they take me around to the tail and they tell me, look down there. Is there a cleavage pin in there with a cotter pin and a nut on the end of it? Look up there and then let's go. They wanted to go to all the different things. We'll check the fuel and the wings. We'll check that, you know, all the surfaces are moving free and not binding and all the other things you can check on a Cessna. Well, I look down there and after 150 people were told that there was a nut and a cotter pin on the end of the rudder control, I said, no, I don't see one. And literally they were told that there was one there. And everybody just assumed that the people that were instructing us knew that it was there, but it was not there. And if I have a gift, it is that. Whatever anybody tells me, I'm loath to believe it until I've seen it with my own eyes. Maybe that's a little bit of Missouri show me, but you never know. But I was in Missouri at the time, so the other 149 show me's apparently didn't do it. But again, the experience in your life kind of dragged through all of it. I always think, hey, what would happen if we actually did it? And the other thing I'm always wondered whether or not somebody new went in there, pulled it off while everybody was at lunch and wanted to see just how far it would go until someone found it. I never found the answer to that, but I did find it very interesting that 150 people could look at something, tell everybody it was there, and in reality it was not there. Anyway, I had that kind of throwback feeling when I was reading the Microsoft earnings. And also, generally if you think long, you think wrong. And that's from playing poker. That's an old saying, and that is if you try to overthink it, it's problematic. And when you see a stock only, and this is where I spent a lot of time, anybody in the den knows that I kind of post the earnings as they come through, because I want to see how these stocks react to news, because it gives me a lot of feeling, even though I'm not playing them, I'd say 95% of the time, I don't have an after-hours trade-on. I am very interested in how they react to the news. Not so much what the news is, but how it reacts to it. Then I see a one-point pop, and then the cacophony of nattering Nabob's of CNBC telling me how it seems a lot different than what I read. And of course it could be different once you get to the conference call, but generally in a market, same thing. You think long, you think wrong. Now maybe there's some new news coming out, but it never was new news. It was just everybody telling everybody how it had to be the most important thing since sliced cheese. And I guess, especially in tech stocks, if you go back to the late 90s or even through the 2000s, analysts are big on always just moving up the high end of the market, so if it does hit, they can say that they were the person that actually called it. And they'll go on CNBC and say, yes, I called it. But there's a thing called the Gene Dixon effect where you call things and you're remembered just because you called them. And there's, you know, these people, you know, you can be minorly right a lot and horribly wrong once, and you'll be on CNBC for the rest of your life. But that's it. What else is going on? Martians? I don't know what that is. Tell us about the Jedi contract. I actually wrote about that last week. The court case was finally settled. This is a super high speed, secure fiber optic network for the military. There's a lot of argument about whether or not the some of the folks, I think it was Amazon that hired one of the inside guys from the military. And so there's a lot of thought that maybe there is some level of corruption going in for Amazon bidding on the contract in Microsoft. And I think that's a I don't know enough about it. And there hasn't been enough published other than the fact that even Mr. Prez says that he's going to look into it. Not quite yet. We'll be back in a minute. We'll be back in a minute. Hi, folks. Tom O'Brien here. 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The longer that you get hang time, generally the more vicious this becomes to the downside why one of the reasons why I've kind of thought about what's going on here. Let's see what else we've got. Okay. And we're at 29.90. Again, somewhere in the low 29.80s, I think we could hit before the end of the day. Maybe someone will go ahead and push this up and I have a feeling that they just dragged it out to the end of the day and tried to hold it up to kill off as many of those 3,000 puts and calls on the S&P cash, which there are a ton, by the way. It couldn't even get worse or worse. It could even get worse if we get a nice run. And we haven't had one for a very long time on options exploration, but we shall see. Subscribers to the Path of Least Resistance should be watching for an update coming out here in a few minutes. What else do we have? Microsoft's basically at 50 cents. Now let's go back and take a look at NFLX, another one that kind of took a header to the downside. And again, as we said, once these things start breaking at this point, the nine day moving average or three by three, you're looking for some fairly significant downside and quickly to it. Question out here about, okay, got that, got that, got that. Let's see what else is going on. Just going through news, see if there's anything breaking now. I don't see anything. Anyway, we were looking at Microsoft. You had huge volume. You've broken through all the previous lows. We've got that big gap at about 280, and I think that's where that eventually is going to head. My guess is it's going to go sideways for a little while. Now that you've got the big destruction on, that's it. QuickBooks has been hit by a ransomware attack, crossing the wires. Let's look at some of the other stuff going on as Amazon. Of course, I've got some questions on whether or not I'll be with Tom O'Brien today at 330. I think I'm finally back. Vacations, other things going on from Tom and I, so we're back together in the saddle today. We're going to be talking a lot about space and investing in space here in the near future. A little bit about the hearings this week for Google and Amazon and Facebook. De-Facebook, but we'll look. Anyway, you tested the previous high. We were about 15 bucks short on Amazon from that July 11th high to the September 4th high. It wouldn't be my first pick as a short. Again, I wouldn't be long. These things certainly now with any kind of antitrust announcement probably coming out of the ether somewhere. I'd want to be in stocks that they're probably not talking about that a lot more. But Facebook and Google have a lot more issues right now than I think Amazon other than the fact that France has enacted a new tax if you didn't see that on these big internet sales companies. Probably affect Amazon worse than the rest, but I think they already pay sales tax in Florida already. Let's take a look at the SMH's. Oh, yep. Someone talking about the Experimental Aircraft Association starts July 22nd. Always a lot of fun. We fly in down here called Sun and Fun, and that's what I go to now. No reason to go up there and go through the zoo at the EAA. But enjoyed watching them rebuild the DC3 that will be there at the EAA next week. Maybe you'll get a chance to see it, John. What else do we have? Semi-connector holdings. This is about as good as the chart gets if you want to pull the trigger on a short position. You're down and have a gap on the 6th of May with 6.7 million shares. You've got a 2.7 million share doji right in that gap. So your risk reward really doesn't get any better than right here. And I mean, you're pretty much at maximum resistance. The only thing that could be better would be a retest of this April 24th high. And I don't know if we're going to get that. This volume is incredibly weak as you push higher out there today. I don't see a lot in earnings next week that would drive it farther home. See how NVIDIA and some of these other more volatile stocks are acting. Again, we talked, brought this up, a really weak retest of the July 1st eye. That's 173.95 with 18 million shares. Got into that yesterday with 11 million shares. You only have 5.7 million shares in a little rotation on the way back down. Support comes in about 152 per NVIDIA. Take a quick look at AMD. Yeah, this one's one of the guys from Buffalo Airways. Someone's talking in the den about Baszler, which puts turbo props on. Anyway, advanced micro. We talked about this one. I didn't like them cutting the margins so extensively. Besides just a week market already. We talked about how they've gone after both Intel and NVIDIA at the same time. And to me, kind of like Hitler taking on both the east and west fronts at the same time. I would have liked it better if they just did one or the other. And then maybe in three months after they see how that worked, they would do both, but they didn't. They decided to attack on all fronts, which I kind of like the aggressiveness. But generally when it's kind of like, and I'm trying to remember the comedian's name. Used to do weekend update. Norm, Norm McDonald. He has a stand up special where he talks to a bunch of millennial kids. And he goes, I don't know if you learn this in history, but the Germans, they had this war. Back around 1914, 1915. And they declared war on the world. And then later around 1940, they declared war again. On the world. You know, that first day, I don't like multiple fronts being spun up at the same time. Anyway, down a little bit, not much volume today, still one of the stronger stocks. We'll look at micron when we come back. You can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits, which makes these lots valuable. The investment is anywhere from $30,000 to $75,000. 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An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. From email out here about Walgreens, you didn't even do very good when you tried to get back into the bottom of this gap from April the 2nd. That had 37 million shares. You only got into it with 7 million shares. Ideally, you would like a test of this $49.31 low with like 3 or 4 million shares to say that a low in is in WBA. I don't see a lot of reasons to try to die on this hill yet. And certainly, probably through the at least first or second of the month, I don't see a lot of reasons to be taking a lot of chances to the long side here at all. This is where at least some minor support should be in. The only thing I have is that you're back down to the previous low of yesterday. I think a lot of people will look at that and start scratching their heads going, well, Microsoft earnings were supposed to be great. Why are people selling? A little bit of that. Sell the news. Anyway, I don't see a lot going on in that. We were going to talk about Micron when we left the last commercial and we're seeing a fairly decent hit right here around 45 bucks. 46 bucks. You got 46 bucks on Micron today. Again, this thing is always massively shorted. So I don't think there's a lot. To write in about this. But we what we do have is a fairly decent signal out here that there is a lot, not a lot of volume. You're at 28 million shares compared to 40 million share high back on April 3rd. But if you this one kind of does the same thing that Microsoft is doing, compared to 40 million share high back on April 3rd. But if you this one kind of does the same thing that most of the stocks are doing in the next couple of days, this thing closes back below what say $44 and 25 cents. Got a pretty good signal that a lot of these things have come in. Now this one had better energy off the June 17th low than any of them. So I would say that there are other stocks out there that have been weaker in the SMH's that you may want to take a look at. I haven't looked at what in a while. This is the company that was supposed to have a magic ability to transfer energy wireless in a room. I think somebody called in, I think it was Marie that had heard about this. And I said, this company is either worth $200 a share or it's worth zero. And you don't know because they tell everybody they've got this marvelous deck. But guess what? They won't show it to anybody. Always, always know that at that point, it's almost always a scam. And anybody, you know, the old Carl Sagan adage goes into extraordinary claims need extraordinary proof. And if you're making extraordinary claims, you should be able to show it to people. There were those guys that were scamming cold fusion forever. And it was, you could always find out that they were heating something on the other side of the wall. They never bring it out, except at the location of their choosing. Never could be moved, never could be looked at very hard. Of course, they're always saying, well, you might steal it. That's fine. But then you don't need to be talking about it till you're ready to sell it. I don't understand why you're talking about it now. I get a product that you can actually put on the market. Anyway, actually fairly light volume down here. Again, if these guys can ever deliver on a tenth of their promises, $100 stock. The problem is they continue to say that it will be another three months, another six months, another year. And I just right now, especially the market, looking as weak as it is technically. Another one that looks like it could go into the ash bin of history. Let's take a look at here. We haven't seen that one. That was one that kind of escaped me. It is come back down. This was really the they ran the wave of computer game headsets or headphones with boom microphones. So all the gamers could play with each other and talk to each other. But that was very interesting. I don't see anything down here until about $8.25 and don't even have light volume today. But we'll see what it does. You want to put an alarm. We're going to go to Robert in Kansas City. How you doing today, Robert? Hi. Thank you for taking my call. It's a hot day here. It sounds like your rain there might be a little cooler. The hottest day I ever was in, I think it was 113. Well, 90% or 100% humidity there in Johnson County. But you never know. So what can we talk about today, USO? Yeah, so I currently have a short position. I currently have a position in DWT. I'm shorting USO. And my thoughts was it was going to go down to the June low. And I wanted to see if you share those sentiments. If you think what we're just experiencing now is kind of like a, you know, we might be experiencing a bounce or what are your thoughts? Well, the only reason that crew didn't 35 boxes that the Iranians and the Russians want to keep the Mideast turned always spooled up. We've got a million more barrels a day being produced than we're consuming. And it's now getting kind of hard to find places to put it. But they can, you know, we can shoot down a drone. We can do a bunch of other stuff. But I don't think Turkey continues to spin it up. I don't think the Iranians have the ability other than to cause world tumult at the moment. That will, of course, change if they get nuclear weapons. But there's no evidence that they've got them yet. But, you know, I guess the only reason we have any of this support at all is the thought that we could lose supply. In the United States, you know, this is a, in the USO, much more problematic to say that there's going to be some kind of supply drought. You know, the only thing I dislike about right now is that we do have, or at least when we, for the show, just came out with the Baker Hughes rig numbers. And the rigs were down about four. I'd like to see a US rig count back up about a thousand. But as it came down, a lot of people took capacity off. My guess is that this will eventually come back. But they've kind of figured out which rigs are the cheapest to run. And those are basically kind of the base of the market. They're taking off a few, I think, to drive prices higher. But if it was truly a supply-and-demand game, 35 bucks, maybe 40 bucks for crude. But every time it kind of gets down there, the Ruskies or the Iranians, somebody has got to stir the pot to keep the price high. But I wouldn't be long it, but I certainly can see what you see in it. And that is overall long-term weakness. The one thing I really hate about commodities like oil is it's all headline risk, right? You get one more shot. If you want to hang on through the break, we'll come back in a minute. I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trade that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastering Probability. And for the last 12 months, Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, 6 and 3 months. Timer Digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well. The fact is, markets can be timed. And I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do. 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Match that with 14 years as a full-time trader and he's uniquely qualified to guide you through the light-speed world of ever-evolving high-tech. If you're ready to ride the next big technology bull market for less than $40 per month, log on to TFNN.com and get your two-week free trial to The Technology Insider. Get in on the ground floor of the next big thing today. Since 1984, Basil Chapman has been using the Chapman Wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion. While originally hand-drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s, Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply. Later Basil found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy in calling price turns as well as market trend calls. Thus was born the Chapman Wave sequence. Using the Chapman Wave methodology along with other indicators, Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter. Right now you can get a two-week free trial to the opening call, Basil's daily trading newsletter, by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing. Get your two-week free trial to Basil's newsletter of the opening call today by visiting TFNN.com. Next on CNBC, Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. Do we still have Robert on the line? Are you still there? Yes. Okay. So I don't know where you're short on this, but you came back into a gap that was on the 20th and you had 47 million shares and you hit it with 38 million shares. So the easy part of this trade is over. You're probably going to at least go sideways or a little bit down. And the question is whether or not with gold at fairly steep or especially the miners at fairly steep prices, if they're not going to look at crude as the place to hide out on the weekends. So I would probably hold this to the open on Monday and see whether or not it gaps down and people were just buying it as a hedge over the weekend, because that's not uncommon for both gold and crude. So generally, if you're still on the right side of the trade by Friday's close, I would normally wait till Monday's open. So I don't think there's anything to say that it's done going down, but it may go sideways for a while. I don't know. Are you pretty much in the chips? No, I'm kind of even about it yesterday. Yeah, I don't think if you're even, I think I would probably pass and wait for Monday or maybe Tuesday to see whether or not you get any continuation. But I mean, you tested yesterday's gap on half the volume. At best, you're going to go sideways for a while generally, right? Maybe 80% of the time and maybe something else comes out because oil is all headline driven, at least in the short term. Long term, I think it's headed down. I just don't like getting short at what should be support. Anyway, thanks for the call, Robert. We'll be back with Tom O'Brien at 3.30 either on our Tech Insider time. And in the meantime, sell when you can, not when you have to and we will see you here Monday. Same VAT channel, same VAT time.