 Everybody, welcome to the live stream today with a little bit different because we got NFA live and we've got Jessica from Coin Bureau, Jess, welcome to the show. Thank you. It is great to be here. How are you guys doing? Pretty good. Good. Yes. Thank you for hosting me. Guys currently flying back to the UK for Christmas, so I thought I would take the opportunity to join NFA. I love watching you guys every week. Perfect. Yeah, yeah. We like, you guys got a good thing over there at Coin Bureau and Coin Bureau Clips. And then of course everybody, you can find both of the channels, Ben and another Cryptoverse and then of course Coin Bureau and Coin Bureau Clips. Links are in the description. And today, ladies, lady and gentlemen, we have some reasonable questions to ask. And the things that we're going to talk about is, it's just because of the market and the way things are. And like I've said in the past and most recently is that things seem to be a little bit different this time. I was in the crypto market. I got in 2017, so I only experienced the bear market of 2018, 2019, and of course then the recent ones. But it seems like right now, like we're accelerating into the Bitcoin having as far as like price appreciation and things like that. It just seems like we're just really quick to go, especially if you take a look at like 2020, then of course the Surveys of Sickness that came out in March of 2020, then the Havoning around May and then of course we accelerated. But it seems like a little bit different this time. So the question I have is, are we accelerating? Is this time different or is it roughly the same? So Jess, since you're our guest of a guest, I'll have, I'll sorrel with you first. Oh, you're too kind. Thank you. Really good question. And I kind of, when I saw the question, I really thought it was interesting to take a little look at the pre halving years and dive into what we've seen beforehand. I think because it's such a new space every single year is a different year and there's no real cookie cutter in the buildup to the halving. I think if we look at the four Bitcoin cycles that really stand out, actually 2012 and 2016, they both showed a slight rally in the buildup to the halving. I would have said that 2020 was the anomaly and the exception. And that was because we had COVID, we had February. There was the black market Monday crash where we saw, I think oil fell into the negative and that did impact the sentiment of the market. So while the pre Bitcoin halving of 2020 was still a slightly positive sentiment, it was still a weak sentiment overall. And I would say that this year is different because there's so many other characters that are at play. So obviously we've seen in general this year adoption is just such a different ballpark. Crypto itself is a different beast. The industry is significantly bigger. I had a little look at some metrics provided by sentiment, which is a great data aggregator. I'd recommend anyone to go and check them out. And they provided some metrics on Google search terms. And I had a little look at this month, which is six months roughly pre halving and also the six months pre halving in 2019. And actually it's not so far off. So right now on Google search terms, we're kind of ranking around 21 out of 100. And back in kind of the last six months prior in 2019, it was around 17. So from that side of things, when it comes to spite curiosity, it doesn't seem so different to what we've seen in previous years. And I think that's something to take note of. Obviously we're very much in the space. We have had this previous positive price appreciation in the last few months. But overall, it's not such a significant build up to what we've seen. I'm curious to hear Ben's thoughts. Well, let's bring them up. Ben, you've been here longer than me. So tell me what you think and what the charts show us. Yeah, so can you see my chart? Yeah, I do. So I was looking at if we measure out ROI from the lows from each bear market year, like 2014, 2018, 2022, this is what it looks like from 2014. Yeah, this is what it looks like from 2014. In the next cycle, this is what it looked like from 2018. And then here's what it looks like this time. Yeah, I feel like there's two ways to interpret this, really. And there's been this discussion, I think, amongst crypto people forever, right, that what is Bitcoin more dependent on? Is it more dependent on the macro stuff? Is it more just dependent on the halving? I think we're going to find a lot of that out relatively soon. Because if you look at this chart, we're kind of where we always are at this time. We're actually ahead of where we normally are at this time. But you can see that even in this, I mean, look at this cycle right now compared to last cycle, it wasn't a smooth journey by any stretch of the imagination. So I do think people should be aware that stuff like that can happen. But I mean, this is kind of where we were last cycle as well. There's other ways to look at this. I think that, and I know it's sort of a joke at this point, but I think that measuring the dominance of Bitcoin and kind of seeing where that is, because it's useful to know if money is flowing from alts to Bitcoin or from Bitcoin to altcoins. And there's always people who even know like, is there going to be a rotation from money from Bitcoin into altcoins so that people can kid their alt season? Normally that only happens after Bitcoin hits new highs, right? But, and actually we can pretty clearly see that if you just look at the hodl waves and the hodl waves. If you look at long-term holders, and so basically we're defining this as essentially anyone who has held Bitcoin for at least six months. In 2019, there wasn't really a big dip, right? Long-term holders were not selling. Even though we had a 70% drop, they were not selling. This time, they're also not selling in this. The reason is because they normally don't start selling until we get to new highs. That's when long-term holders typically start to sell. And so when you look at what Bitcoin and the altcoin market did in 2019, Bitcoin topped out and then altcoins topped out basically right when Bitcoin did. There was not a continued alt season after Bitcoin topped out. And I think the reason was because Bitcoin didn't hit new highs. Like so a lot of times people are taking money from Bitcoin and throwing it into the altcoin market. Well, if people don't take profits from their Bitcoin because it didn't go to a new alt time high, then there's just less of that to go throw into the altcoin market. So there's that way you can look at it, right? You can look at the sort of the ROI from that bear market low. You could also look at, and this is the Bitcoin dominance without stable coins. This is the performance in 2023 compared to the average of the last two pre-having years. It's doing what it always does, right? This is what it normally does. So then those two look pretty similar. And then the other way to look at it is this way. And this is, I think this is the biggest question mark for this cycle right now is because last cycle you can see right here. So the candles are the altcoin market. And then this blue line, this is the Fed funds rate, right? So we're talking about monetary policy. You can see that where the altcoin market broke down against Bitcoin last cycle was just before rate cuts right here, right? Just before rate cuts because you can see the blue line started to come down. That is where alt's bottomed out, or that's where they broke down against Bitcoin and went to whatever their bottom was going to be, right? We know that rate cuts are likely coming sometime next year. And also the funny thing is, look where the altcoin market is with respect to Bitcoin. It's basically at the same spot that it was last time, just a couple of months before rate cuts, right? And I mean, I think the market, if I'm not mistaken, I think the market is sort of thinking that we're going to have rate cuts as early as March. March, May, yeah. As early as March or May. So in that sense, we're kind of at the same spot. So it really depends on how you interpret it. Do you look at it more so with respect to the halving and those cycles? Do you look at it more so with respect to monetary policy? Because if that's the case and we get rate cuts, then if it breaks like it did over here, then that means that alts still haven't bottomed out against Bitcoin collectively, right? It could still mean that the dominance has further to run is what I'm trying to say. I remember when it broke down right here, it was actually on a Bitcoin rally that broke it down. If you overlay Bitcoin onto the chart, I mean, you can see pretty clearly that right here, Bitcoin, where it broke down, Bitcoin was actually getting sort of this final pump just to break altcoins off of those Bitcoin support levels. So it really depends on how you interpret it, whether you subscribe sort of the halving theory or the monetary policy theory. And again, remember in 2020, it was not a cakewalk, but we had some pretty good gains by the end of the year, but we had a 60% drop somewhere in there. So that would lead me to the next piece, which would be, well, Jess, looking at all this stuff, and we just talked about it, do you think this is right now is sustainable, especially with, because we've seen some monster rallies. And it's not just, I mean, Bitcoin over the last seven days wasn't up like 14, 15%, which is a major thing. That's pretty great for the largest cap in the crypto market. But we've seen some amazing rallies of, like we just talked about Ortey or the Ordinals coin and Solana and a ton of different Web3 gaming tokens like Playable and Miria. And of course, why is Rob mentioning those? Because Rob owns those and Rob is very biased. But when we take a look at that, do you see that this is sustainable? Is it sustainable for the altcoins and Bitcoin? Or is it just going to be like, well, people had their fun with alt, now it just goes right into Bitcoin? Or no, maybe it's just going to be like, no, no. Bitcoin diamonds can just go to like 56, maybe 55, maybe 57. Sustainable rally is always a tough phrase, because I think everyone would wish that all rallies were sustainable. But I think what we are seeing is in the next few months, this is going to be really critical for the industry and for price action. So like if we look, we've got the limited supply stock to flow adjustments every four years are looking more and more positive for Bitcoin price action. BlackRock selling spot Bitcoin ETF, this is adding significant credibility to the space we are expecting the probability likely mid January. So that's looking to come forward. And we saw Bitwise and BlackRock updating their S1 filings for the SEC just this week. BlackRock received a 100k seeded investment for a spot Bitcoin ETF. So I would say in the next few months, this rally is sustainable. Are we going to see the spikes that we've seen over the last few weeks? Maybe not in such a euphoric manner. We've got the green background behind us because we are celebrating the markets. But I think this is going to be a positive potential trend if we look at the likelihood of BlackRock and the other kind of spot Bitcoin ETF applications. And we see BTC allocations of maybe one to three percent of BTC exposure in these institutional portfolios. Well, then we are going to see rising prices and more attraction into a large mainstream crowd. So I do think this is sustainable for Bitcoin in the short term. Will we see some profits that will then flow into the altcoin market? I mean, typically, yes, we do see a rotation into alts that's not so far-fetched. Not to say that alts haven't already been performing. We've certainly seen in CoinMarketCap as well more interest and curiosity when it comes to altcoin videos. And I'm sure it's the same on your guys' channel as well. People are altcoin curious right now too. So I do think that we are seeing a sustainable rally. There might be some movements into the altcoins. But I think right now a lot of focus is going to be initially on Bitcoin price action. Yeah, got you. Hey, real quick. You talked about Google Trends. Was the Google Trend up a little bit this time as opposed to like 2019 or was it reduced? I forgot what you said. Yes, it was 21 out of 100 for Bitcoin specifically. Yes, I will drop the link into the chat so you guys can take a look at anyone that is watching. Perfect. And I think that was just Bitcoin. It would be curious to see what sentiment has for the different altcoins because it's just a little bit. But remember this, everybody. Bitcoin, we're looking at 750, 800 billion market caps somewhere around there. But some of these altcoins, we're talking of less than 200 million. So it's a lot easier for these things to rip on a very little amount. So even though they're the Google Trends, which isn't an exact search per month, it'll kind of give you a general idea of what kind of interest there is. Even if there's a little bit, that's a lot of bit for these different altcoins. Now, not all these are going to run. And we've seen that. And I've lost plenty throughout the years. But just remember that there are some different plays that could run very well. But again, as you go down that ladder, it sure as heck gets risky. Ben, sustainability. I think you're kind of on the path that you think it's sustainable as long as Bitcoin can hit this. Dominance level. Or it doesn't really matter for you. I mean, I think dominance is going to go higher until we get to looser monetary policy. So I mean, what is it at now? Like 54, 55%. So. Oh, I think you know. 54.78. Told you. All right. So perfect. Okay, I know you know, Ben. I know you have this curse because you know these things and you're like, I'll just kind of guesstimate. But we know it is. But I. 54, 78%. Ether bitcoins 052. So yeah. So yeah, I mean, I think that it's going to keep going up as my guess. I mean, I don't think it's going to top out at 54 or 55. But I think, I mean, it could. But I think that there's still reason to believe that it could hit 57, 58. I mean, you know, my long term target for what the last two years has been 60%. I mean, how many times have I said that? Couple times. Yeah. A couple of times. Right. So I still think it's likely going to go higher at least through the end of the year. I think we could see a push higher into the end of the year. And it could go a little bit higher next year. But I will say oftentimes in having years, dominance doesn't go that much higher than where it ended the pre-having year. Right. So like, I don't know if I have time to pull up my. Yeah, yeah. Pull it up. Let me go ahead and share my screen really quick. And it's been, there you go. Perfect. Yeah. So like, I mean, if you look at, we've talked a lot about pre-having years, but if you look at like having years for big, this is dominance excluding stable coins. Yeah. You can see that in both prior having years, dominance excluding stables did go a little bit higher than where the year opened up, but not like a lot higher. Right. And, but it's interesting because I think the reason for that is because having years are associated with more political, or sorry, election years are more so associated with more political pressure probably felt by the Federal Reserve to go to lose to monetary policies. So the incumbents not going into the elections with everyone really upset that rates are so high. So it brings about lose to monetary policy, which makes it so that other assets can do, can perform, the riskier assets can start to keep up with the lower risk ones. So yeah, I think dominance will go up through the end of the year and maybe even in slightly early next year, but it probably won't go up for too much longer, if that makes sense. As far as Bitcoin, USD, I mean, when you look at this chart, look at it on like just a regular scale. Right. Look at the chart. Like, I don't know when there's going to be a pullback, but I mean, yeah, there's probably going to be a pullback at some point. We're now in what, eight weeks in a row? That's green. Yeah, it's nice. I mean, this doesn't, this doesn't always happen. I mean, it's hard to know like when exactly it's going to come. But yeah, I mean, I imagine there'll be a pullback at some point. One interesting thing. And again, I don't know if this time is different or not, but we've always been around the 100-week moving average sometime in like the early part of the having year, like right here, we're at the 100-week right here. We came back to the 100-week and then we were also at the 100-week right here. And all of these were separated by about four years or so. And the 100-week starting to curl back up. So I almost wonder if you'll see it come back into that 100-week moving average, just like it did last cycle, just like it did the cycle before that and just like it did the cycle before that. Again, could this time be different? Yeah, anything's possible, but I thought it was at least interesting to point out. Yeah, it was. And you know, like when I wrote, when I asked these questions, because I always think about like, is this a little bit different? Because it seems to me like it is because of things that are running. But then when you really look at the data and like the things that Jessica pointed out and what you pointed out, it looks like maybe this just business is usual. And then we'll see how it goes, which is great for us because imagine this everybody, if this is a great time and like, you know, we talked about last eight weeks or so, imagine what it's going to be like in 2024 and 2025. Do you think if this is your first cycle of 2021, you've not seen anything yet. So just get ready because it looks to be pretty fantastic. We will see. Well, that'll lead me to the next point, the next question, which is this, we talked about it looks like it could be sustainable, looks like things will go in the right direction. We know things, it's not going to go up only every time. What about your portfolio right now? Is this going to be like business as usual for you? Or is it going to be, look, you know what, YOLO meme coins, here I come. So which ways are going to be because I got to tell you, I know we're getting kind of frothy when the people who in the chats in email on X, oh, ask me, Rob, what about this meme coin? Or what about this all coin? I think I'm going to put, I'm going to sell this to put into that. So what do you guys think as far as like for your portfolio? Because we can't get financial advice. That's the whole reason for this show. So Jess, I'll start with you again. What do we got for your portfolio? Sure. So I am a pretty boring crypto investor. I'm not such a DJ and I'm going to be honest. So my portfolio is not particularly exposed to meme coins. I would say I have no meme coins on the portfolio. A few little AI tokens here and there just to try and jazz thing up, but really one to 2% and everything else is larger cap tokens. I'm still dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin at the moment. I did a little bit of a reshuffle though around two weeks ago and moved some Ethereum into Solana. I had a really interesting conversation interview with Austin Federa, who is the head of strategy at Solana. And I was pretty inspired by some Solana ecosystem tokens. And I was like, you know what I need to do is maybe follow in the trend a little bit more of following the crypto narratives as they come into play. So I'm looking to reposition as we move into 2024. Had a conversation yesterday with Ethan Buckman, the co-founder of Cosmos. So as much as right now, I hold some Atom in my bag and I'll probably be trying to move some of that out from Atom into some of the Cosmos ecosystem tokens because although Atom hasn't moved so much in the recent weeks, some of the Cosmos ecosystem tokens, and if you guys have seen like Celestia, Injective, they've been moving like crazy in the last eight weeks. So that's definitely something that I'm looking to be doing just to kind of spread out a little bit and make sure that I don't foam all into some of these smaller caps. Perfect. The reason why I'm smiling is because I knew as soon as you said that I sold some Ethereum that's going to go into Solana, I'm like, here it comes. And here it goes. I no longer like Jessica. Solana sucks. And of course, you have to remember that this is all the narratives. Of course, we should be supportive of everybody. But remember, it's all about what you actually have. So for me, I put this meme every time I think about these things is that when I talk about something that you want, you guys love me. When I talk about something you don't like, I'm a shill and most awful person of all time. And I think that's just normal. And just to clarify, guys, I still hold three. It's like a three to one ratio with ETH being a more dominant player and DTC is still my biggest bag. So it's not a lot, but I'm just a little bit of a reshuffle. It's not full DGEN just yet. See, now everybody loves you again. All right, Ben, same thing. What do you got? Is it business as usual, Bitcoin going in or just like, you know what, I want to do a little bit of getting in there. At some point, you're going to go with altcoins. And I'll be one that has that question. I mean, yeah, I mean, the only crypto I've even bought in the last two years has been Bitcoin. I mean, you asked me, I know you've asked us this a lot over the years. And my answer hasn't changed. I mean, like the only crypto I've bought since, you know, I don't remember when, right? I mean, years has been Bitcoin. And the only reason was because I just, I thought that that Bitcoin dominance is going to go up, right? So I'm like, well, I mean, if the lowest risk cryptocurrency is going to take more market share, then why wouldn't I just keep my portfolio heavy in that asset, rather than try to predict which altcoin is going to outperform it, right? I just, I sort of, you know, just say to myself, I'm like, I'm not smart enough to know which alts are going to outperform it. And I'd rather just hold the one that is likely going to survive long term. So, yeah, I mean, no, my crypto portfolio is basically like 99% Bitcoin. And it has been, it has been for essentially two years now. I would be open to changing that up, you know, as we, as the dominance presses closer to, you know, to 60%. But until that time, I still think that in terms of like risk adjusted returns, I think that, that Bitcoin is, is a better option. And actually maybe there's a chart I can show. So I know I've been sharing a lot of charts today. Chart time. But Ben, I'm also now extremely curious as to what that 1% in your portfolio is, if it's 99% Bitcoin. I am also curious. So this is modern portfolio theory. And this is like, this is basically something that, you know, people use going back to decades, like it's classical theory. And we're, it was some Monte Carlo simulation of 5,000, we're showing 5,000 of 50,000 different portfolios. And we're looking at what portfolio of Bitcoin and Ethereum maximizes your risk adjusted returns. And there's two ways to measure risk adjusted returns. In this case, it's your sharp ratio or your sort Tina ratio. If you want to maximize your sharp ratio, which punishes positive volatility, right? Which kind of sounds weird. You might not want to punish positive volatility, right? But the portfolio that maximizes the sharp ratio is 75% Bitcoin, 25%. If you want to go for a higher return, as you go up this curve, you'll see that the portfolio percentage, it'll go, it'll go further, it'll go closer to Ethereum, right? The further you go up the curve and less Bitcoin. But this green dot right here, this is what maximizes your risk adjusted returns. It's like, it's on the efficient friends here, right? The sortino ratio, which does not punish positive volatility, does 80% Bitcoin and 20% E. So yes, I mean, Ethereum does tend to give oversized gains against Bitcoin, as long as you can time the bottom and sell the top, right? But we also know that the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation has been bleeding since the merge. I mean, it has been, it's been going down, right? So, everyone would have just been better off over the last year. I mean, if they had been Bitcoin heavy over Ethereum, over ETH heavy. I mean, I still look, and by the way, to minimize volatility, it's 94% Bitcoin and 6% E. So that's where I am. I mean, I still think that a Bitcoin heavy portfolio is going to make the most sense right now. I mean, I also think taking profits along the way isn't the worst idea. And I mean, I know Rob talks about that all the time on Twitter. It's like- All the time. I mean, yes, it's gains on paper, but if you don't take profits, and it doesn't actually mean anything. In 29- I mean, again, I know I'm the bad guy, right? I'm always a bad guy. But in 2019, I saw Bitcoin rally from $3,100 to $14,000. I mean, it went up more than 3X, and then it still collapsed after that. And basically, no one took profits, right? No one- Look at the huddle waves for Bitcoin. No one took profits over here. Or I mean, there's some people that did, but like most- I mean, obviously some people did if the price went down, but most people did not. And so, I mean, it only ever seems obvious in hindsight, right? So I mean, again, and I'm not saying- I mean, it's not- It typically doesn't make sense to go all in or all out, right? Like, I mean, Robin in talks about DCA all the time, right? So like, when you're getting into the market, it tends to make sense to DCA in, and I think everyone agrees with that. But when it comes to getting out of the market, even if it's just for like, I don't know, whether it's a short-term pullback or if it's a long-term pullback, everyone doesn't want to do a DCAL. They just want to sell everything and hope they time the top, right? Whereas that's often really hard to do. Like no one knows where the local top is. I mean, no one knows if there's going to be a local top here at 44K or if it's going to be at 48K or 52K, right? No one knows. But in hindsight, whatever it is, everyone's going to be like, ah, I wish I had sold some. You know? Oh, which, of course- I didn't think how else to sell, right? Um, so I would just say that. Like it doesn't, I mean, it gains on paper. It doesn't necessarily mean anything if you don't occasionally take profits. And it could be a small amount, right? Like it doesn't have to be like your whole stack, right? It could just be a small amount. I think a lot of times there's, you know, like, there's one person, like if you're married or you have, you know, whatever, there's like one person that's like really into crypto, and then the other person's pretty much like, who cares about that? Like why are you doing this? Like why is all our money going into this black hole? And you never see it again. It's because the person that puts the money in crypto, they never actually take anything out, right? Their partner, all they ever view it as is this thing that money goes into but never comes out of. I do think occasionally taking profits is a good thing. And once you start doing it, it can actually become somewhat addictive. Yeah, Jess, what do you want to say? So I was just going to say, so we're talking about portfolio management. And I think this time of year is always really critical because it's kind of like you go home for Christmas. Everyone's asking you about that crypto thing. This year is a lot more of a positive, let's discuss crypto at the dinner table than previous years, than last year, absolutely for sure. But when it comes to portfolio management, like I feel like now I'm able to be a little bit riskier with my allocations, but for newbies, I would absolutely just say to them to start with Bitcoin. There is no way I'd say start with, you know, a mixed bag, it would just kind of, that would absolutely be my go-to because I think for them, that's the first kind of gateway into the industry. And I think that's also kind of a different question, you know? Yeah, I think people generally should be more aggressive taking profits on altcoins than on Bitcoin because with altcoins, they really do come and go, you know? And a lot of the ones pumping this year are different than the ones that were pumping last year in terms of a lot of the altcoins. So with Bitcoin, I think it's, you know, people get away with being a bit more risky and just kind of like leaving it in there and letting it sit for years. With altcoins, you know, 90% of them just become relics and then the ones that pump in the next cycle are new coins that are launched. So, yeah. Two things, Ben, do me a favor. Can you pull up that, not the DCA tool, but the DCA out tool? We're taking profits on the website. Pull that up. And then as you're doing that, I just want to just comment that I think people are saying, well, you know, and I see in the comments, we know all coins, you know, there's, you know, outsized gains and all of these things, but that's true. But, you know, you have to understand that sometimes at some point in your life, you're like, I just want to have the least amount of stress and just have the gains that are going to come to me. I know are going to not be guaranteed, but going to take, it's going to be a lot simpler to move forward. So in that vein, that's why this is what I hear a lot from people, especially like the OGs, like a Simon Dixon, the people I meet here in Puerto Rico who've been in since the 2011. But it's like, you know what? I just put in a Bitcoin and I sit around and wait, and then every so often I take a little bit out. But remember, they got in a lot longer and the time goes on, you'll be the same way. But the next thing is, well, we talk about alts and Ben just said, and Jess just said about taking profits. Well, how the heck do we do that? Well, there's a great tool. I don't know if you've seen this. I've stolen this from Ben's website multiple times. It's DCAing in and DCAing out. So if you're looking to say, well, when do I take this stuff? A great suggestion would be for the risk bands, which we've talked about multiple times. But then take a look at something like this. Ben, just real quick, just give us a rundown on that stuff. Yeah, the idea is like you pick a risk level that you're comfortable DCAing out from, right? And if you're not familiar with what that is, it's this chart right here, right? So this is the risk for Bitcoin. And the idea is like every single pump, you never know how high it's going to go. Some of these pumps go up to the highest risk levels in 2017 and in early 2021, but then other pumps only go up to the 0.6 to 7 risk levels in 2019 and in late 2021. So in every single pump, you never know how high it's going to go. And so rather than trying to sell everything at the appropriate time, or rather than trying to just identically time the top and rub it in everyone's faces, it tends to be better to just say, all right, well, above a certain risk level, I'm going to take profits. Below that risk level, I'm just going to DCA no matter what. Above that risk level, maybe, again, what I do, just for the record, is I DCA Bitcoin below 0.4 risk. And then between 0.4 to 0.6, I kind of don't really do anything. I kind of just sit around and talk about random stuff with you guys. And then when it gets above 0.6, it starts to pique my interest as, hey, there are some pumps in history that only went out, that topped out around 0.65 risk. That was where the 2019 rally topped out and the late 2021 rally topped out around that risk level as well. So what you can do, what people can do, is they can just pick a risk band and say, well, let's say you want to do it a linear strategy. So let's say you start, you take a conservative approach, that means you start selling above 0.4 risk. I think that's too conservative. I'm going with the aggressive approach, which means you start selling a little bit in the 0.6 to 0.7 risk band, but you don't really sell a lot, like you sell a little bit. That way, if there is like a 40% drop, you can pat yourself on the back for taking some profits. If there's not a 40% drop, then you can live with yourself for taking some profits because you still have a lot of Bitcoin to still sell. Like you only sold a small amount of what you had. And the way that works is you basically just say, all right, well, I think the projected price is going to be a certain amount. Let's just say you think the projected price will eventually be like 100,000, then that means like if it goes up to the 0.6 to 0.7 risk band, it means taking about 4,500 off the table. Right? Whereas if it goes up to the 0.7 to 0.8, it means taking 11,000 off the table. And then so on and so forth. So you wait your cells the further up the risk bands is the idea. And there's different levels here, right? The sea of tranquility one is the person that does the struggle. They just sell everything at the top. But I mean, that's a really hard one because we don't, we only ever go to that highest risk band. Like we only go up to those levels like every three to four years or so, right? Like 2017, I mean, if you zoom out, right? 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021, right? So it's pretty infrequent that we go to those levels. But when we do, that's generally when you want to scale out aggressively. Yeah. Hey, real quick, go back to that screen again and then show like the dropdown for the coin where it says BTC and there's other stuff. Like click on that because you can do this for a lot of different ones. Then you can do this for ETH and then you can do it for SLI, then you do it for a bunch of different coins that are out there. Just showing everybody what's available to them. And of course, you want to check that out. There's a link in the description. And on top of that, there is one more thing is that if you're asking yourself like, well, what kind of like all sort of different stuff are out there? We've also got the Coin Bureau Club and there's a link in the description. Well, that guy gives you his portfolio. I like how they do the reviews. I've never heard of these things in my life. It's pretty interesting. And then also I like this one, Dan's Head of Research portfolio. There's all those coins he has in there. I have no idea what the hell those are. But I'm like, if they do as much research, that looks pretty good. So again, links in the description for that. And that will lead me to my last question, which is this, very simple. Everybody, if you can give me a favor, I see a bunch of questions coming in. But if you want to ask us some questions, go ahead and start putting those questions in the comments section now. Last question is this, market cap total, right? What are we at right now? 1.64, 1.67, somewhere in there? 1.55 according to the trading view, but it might be different on the other website. Maybe it's 1.55. Are we going to, for the end of this year, December 31st, 2023, are we going to be at 1.7 trillion and above or 1.7 trillion and below? Jess, again, start with you. Where are we at? And I love these price predictions because these are just guesstimates. Well, I would say there's more of a likelihood of a chance of an upward price movement. I would, it's kind of, is anyone's guess, I don't have a crystal ball. If I did, I'd be retired on a beach by now somewhere. But kind of looking at the kind of broader scope, I think a lot of the kind of the big elephants in the room from a kind of third perspective, finance, that settlement's been done, that risk has kind of been eliminated. It's like a potential end of year black swan that could shake up the markets. The only real thing I would say is hanging over the head of the crypto space right now is if we see any ultimate putting on the brakes from the SEC when it comes to a spot bitcoin ETF. I think that's the only thing that if we do see that come into the play before the end of the year, any indications of a strong regulatory headwind that could potentially impact the price. I think aside from that sentiment right now is looking pretty good. We've got the positive ETF updates. No more real fud in the market. We've got some kind of little feel good adoption pieces of news that are trickling through that we are seeing. So I personally would say there is a higher probability of the markets moving upward, but it is pretty close. I mean, we're on the 7th of December already, so we're pretty close to end of year. I'm not as optimistic or bullish as the likes of Adam Bach, let's say, who has moved his bitcoin price prediction from 100k pre halving to 100k bitcoin by the end of year. I don't, I would be extremely surprised if we saw that, but that being said, I'm not expecting there to be any kind of ultimate pullbacks in the market. Excellent. Ben, probabilities? Or do you want to just yolo and say, yep, it's going to 1.7 trillion? Well, man, I mean, it's already exceeded my expectations this year. So who am I? Who am I to limit like what it can or cannot do? I would say, you know, going off with just that, I mean, normally at this stage of the cycle, the reason why crypto would drop would not be anything crypto related. Like normally a lot of that gets washed out in your bear market years, right? We're like, you know, FTX, Luna, Celsius, like all that stuff got washed out in 2022. I think that the risk at this point has nothing related to crypto related. I mean, even if a spot ETF is denied, which I mean, is a chance, right? I mean, I don't really know what the probability is. I imagine pretty small, but even if it's denied, it shouldn't like that in it of itself, I would not think would completely derail everything, right? I mean, bitcoin is has done very well for a long time without a spot ETF. So it's not like it has to have one to do well. I think the bigger risk and if you can show my screen, yeah, I think the bigger risk and I've said this before is the macro risk, right? Like do we start to feel all the effects of the rate hikes in 2024 or 2025? This chart here, this is the blue line is the S&P 500. And then it's yellow line. This is job openings divided by unemployed workers. So like, so basically, like right now, the ratio is at 1.34. So for every unemployed worker, there's 1.34 job openings, right? So that's pretty good right now, right? I mean, there's still a lot of job openings for every unemployed worker. I think like if the Fed, there's always the chance the Fed can engineer a soft landing. But if they're going to do that, they need to start cutting soon. So this metric doesn't keep collapsing, right? Because if it goes below one or if it goes to like 0.7 or 0.5, then you really are in recession territory, right? I mean, look over here, the last two times this metric was dropping, like the S&P was not doing good things. So again, I think at this point, there is still a lot of excess in the labor market, like there and there has been a lot of excess for a long time. It all depends on whether the Fed can slow these things down before it gets out of hand. And I think that'll be dependent on if they can actually cut rates quickly enough to sort of engineer that soft landing. So I would say what Jessica said is probably pretty true in the sense that the main, I don't think like the crypto specific risks are the main things that crypto investors need to be worried about. I think it's just whether the macro holds up next year or if it doesn't. Yeah. Excellent responses. I got to tell you, we temper a little bit of expectations. We feel bullish right now. But remember, I mean, what goes up essentially will at one point do a pullback. So just be aware. I don't know if there's going to be a crash coming, but that's what we have. All right, everybody. So we'll jump into the questions right now and go from that. Also, as a quick reminder, my back's feeling better. So because of that, what we'll be doing is we'll do a quick meetup tonight over at the San Juan Smokehouse. My friend, Steven owns that place and it's a pretty good place just to come by and just talk crypto. And the first beer is on me. Second beer is on Steven. So there is a link in the description. Also, here's the address and where it's at over by Condado. So hope to see you there. Lastly, the questions. So let's get into that. Shall we? I like this one. Nola says this, I always like to put up the worst ones first. Everyone in the space is guessing. Advice, do your own research. Stop giving these so-called crypto influencers. I put this up as a reminder that, yes, everything that we talk about, these are the best educated guesses that we can possibly give you. But of course, nobody knows what's going to happen. And for me, we give the best information. Jessica and Ben come out with some fire alpha. So all you can do is just take that information, do as much research as you possibly can, and make the best investment for you and your family. We can't give you financial advice. That's the reason why we named the show that. Rob, please do a segment around January 1st about IRA contribution strategies. You know, for IRAs, why is I trust, but you know you haven't tell in the States April 15th to actually contribute to your IRA. So you got a little bit of a time. But just remember, you can also do trades within your IRA. And those are tax-free in the United States. I don't know how it works in Dubai or UK or any place like that. I'm only American. Someone says, Ben, we love you. You are hot. And Ben is for kids. Their names are BTC and D. That's pretty funny. And here's a good question for Jessica from Ben's haircut. How did Jessica manage to score the first and only interview with the new CEO of Binance? That is a good question, actually. Because when I saw that came out, I was like, that's pretty fast. You missed the question. It doesn't say Binance. It says. Oh, that's right. Excuse me. That's how you should say it. Yeah. From Janet Yellen. Janet Yellen was right all along. Who would have thought it? So we were kindly speaking with the C-level team at Binance for a few weeks in the build-up, actually trying to get an interview with Steezy himself. But as the news broke, we were kind of quickly pivoted to the interview with Richard Tang. So it was a lot of coordination. The team actually turned up to the Columbia HQ to start filming around 6am. So it was a lot of hard work with our team, but we were really glad to do it. And hopefully, it answers some questions for Binance holders, particularly in the US as well. Because I think when stories like this come out, we saw mainstream media kind of fadding on it a little bit. We just wanted to get to the point and answer as many questions and give some clarity. So a big thanks to the Columbia videographer team and Binance as well for helping hook it up. Wow, excellent. You guys got the good connections. Excellent. Someone says, quite a lineup. And then how about this one? Your thoughts on a Bitcoin supercycle when an ETF was approved that can mirror when gold ETF was approved? What does everybody think about this? Because I took a look at a chart when the ETF was approved for gold. It did great, but to hit like some pretty big numbers, it took a couple of years to really go parabolic, I guess. Any thoughts on this one? I don't have any strong thoughts. I think we should all just generally stay away from the word supercycle. I mean, commodities were also in all commodities were in a bull market when that ETF was launched, too. But yeah, I mean, I have no idea. I wouldn't subscribe to the pseudo supercycle idea, but I mean, yeah. I don't either unless it becomes part of a sovereign wealth fund or becomes like reserve currency of multiple, multiple countries moving forward. Jessica, anything on this one? Yeah, I would agree. I actually have a coin codex article on Bitcoin halving dates and prices. And I think even if we do see a spot Bitcoin ETF go ahead, the price cycles that we're going to see, I would expect them to get more and more subdued over time. I'll drop the link in the comments for everyone to take a little look. But I would say as the crypto industry grows, supercycles are going to be more and more of a thing of the past. Yeah, perhaps so. Would you leave me the last question here? Is the spot ETF a sell the news by the rumor like the ETH merge? Which was a good point, actually. ETH merge came out and we saw, you know, went up pretty well with them. But of course, that was a different time frame. What are we going to do here? Well, Ethereum, the ETH or USD hit a, I mean, it's higher than it was then now, but at the time it actually topped out a month before the merge. It was the ETH or Bitcoin pair that topped out like on the day of the merge. On the day. Yeah, I mean, well, I think it was like the day because there was like a spike like right at the right at the launch and then it collapsed ever since, right? Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't be, I mean, it almost seems like a lot of people are front running it right now. So you might even get, you might even get a local top in December before it even launches, you know? And again, like that doesn't mean that it can't recover later on. Like in the cycle, like 2024, 2025, but I mean, ETH or USD topped out before the merge and then had a pretty large correction. So maybe, I mean, look, I mean, Bitcoin is up eight weeks in a row, right? I mean, like at some point we're going to get a red week and we'll, you know, we'll see what that's like again. And I think we don't remember what it's like for the market to actually have a red week. So I think there's a good chance we'll see some type of local top in December and then yeah, we'll see what happens next month. Yeah. Jessica, buy the room or sell the news or just going to keep them going up. It wouldn't be so far-fetched for us to see some profit taking on the back of the news. But I think in the longer term, if we zoom out, I mean, this is a long game in crypto. So longer term, I can't see it having a sell the news impact, which is not going to break past what we're seeing in the build up, you know? Yeah, I can see that. All right, everybody. So that's it for today. Again, for the meet up tonight, practically tell you time 5.30 to 7.00 PM here on Atlantic Center time for Puerto Rico. But that's it for this session. So again, thanks to Ben and Jessica. I appreciate you guys stopping by. And of course, you can find the links in the description for their channels and Twitter and all that great stuff. That's it for today. So thanks, everybody. Like and subscribe. And we'll see you on the next one. Adios. See you.