 Hey everyone, this is Dan with another episode of my Moderna and BioNTech videos. The two stocks reached their all-time highs on August 10th. Since then, Moderna has dropped 32% and BioNTech has dropped 46%. What's causing the price drop? Will they drop even more or will they recover? I believe Moderna and BioNTech are oversold at this point. Now most likely be buying more shares in the next few days. Let's get into the details. This is a review of my price prediction in my September 6th video. At the time, I said that Moderna would be at $450 a share and BioNTech at $420 a share by the end of November 2021. At the time, Moderna was at $416 and BioNTech at $334. Today is Sunday, October 3rd, 2021. As of market closing last Friday, October 1st, Moderna was at $341 and BioNTech at $254. Both of them have certainly dropped. Will I be coming out with new price targets? I will explain more in the next few minutes. Let's look at the charts for Moderna and BioNTech. The candlestick chart here represents Moderna and the yellow line here represents BioNTech. As we can see after both of them reached the all-time high on August 10th, BioNTech dropped 46% and Moderna dropped 32%. Pretty significant drop. But I will say that at this point, I'm not worried too much because if you look at the history of the two stocks, they have indeed been very volatile. If you look at Moderna, which is the more volatile of the two up until now, this dip here back in December of 2020 was a 40% drop. And then there was another drop here, March of 2021, 35%. Another drop in May of 2021, 20%. The current drop of 32% from Moderna and even BioNTech, a 46% drop, they are in line with their historical volatility. That's why I'm not too worried at this point, even though I've been selling some BioNTech shares in the last few days. When I saw the technical trend. Let's look at some of the news items that have been driving the stock prices in the last few days. First of all, on October 1st, the news came out that Merck said they developed a COVID pill that could reduce the risk of death and hospitalization. And because of this news, Moderna and BioNTech dropped quite a bit on October 1st, last Friday. One item is that the Merck COVID pill will cost about $700 per treatment. Actually this is nothing new. That's why I think the market overreacted to the news about Merck because we already have different COVID treatments. For example, Regen Cove, the COVID treatment that's being around for more than six months. And recently the US bought more than 1 million doses of this COVID treatment from Regeneron and the price is about $1,500 per treatment. And then Eli Lilly also has a COVID treatment and recently they sold 388,000 doses to the US government and the price is about $850 per treatment. If you look at the prices, they are definitely much higher than the prices of the COVID vaccines from Moderna and BioNTech, which range from about $36 to about $20. But money is not a real issue here. The main issue is human suffering and also potential death or we cannot just put a price on the value of a human life. And that's why I believe the US as well as the rest of the world will definitely purchase the vaccines before they go to the COVID treatment. And they use the COVID treatment only if the first line of defense, the vaccines have failed or if a person refuses to take the vaccine. Therefore, I don't think these COVID treatments are really competitions for the COVID vaccines, especially not the vaccines from Moderna and BioNTech. I published this chart back in January to say that Moderna and BioNTech will follow the price trajectory of Regeneron and MGen. Both of them are very successful pharmaceutical companies with breakthrough technologies. I compare the prices of Moderna and BioNTech with the prices of Regeneron and MGen after the approval date of their respective blockbuster drugs. And as of January 11th, we are right around here at the starting point at a 100% price level. As of today, October 1st, we are here. As you can see, Moderna and BioNTech actually are performing better than Regeneron and MGen in the equivalent points in history. And looking at the chart, we can see that the prices of Moderna and BioNTech can easily go up by at least 50% to more than doubling within the next 5 to 10 years. And that's why I believe Moderna and BioNTech are very good long-term investments. If you like what you've seen so far, I'd like to encourage you to click the like, subscribe, and notification button. That'll enable you to be notified when I publish a video in the future. And it will also encourage me to make more videos like this. Let's continue. More news items. Recently, it was reported that the Moderna vaccine was found to be more effective at preventing hospitalization. And that's one of the reasons why the BioNTech vaccines has been dropping more than the Moderna vaccine in the last few days. But still, the BioNTech vaccine is still very effective compared to the other vaccines. On September 18th, the FDA advisor recommended for FDA to approve the Pfizer-BioNTech booster shot for people older than 65 and for people at high risk. And since then, indeed, FDA approved this particular proposal. But the FDA has not approved the booster shot for all adults at this point. And there are five reasons why the FDA advices to not recommend the booster shot for everyone. The thing is too soon. And they don't see enough evidence. And they would like to get more data. And they are worried about younger adults and teens, especially about the side effects. And they want to see more data prove that the benefits outweigh the risks for younger people. And they think it's more important to get more people to get vaccinated the first time around. But eventually, I believe FDA will approve the BioNTech booster shot as well as the Moderna booster shot for all adults. I would say it will most likely happen in October or in November following the footsteps of Israel. And we'll talk more about Israel later on. And Moderna has submitted data to FDA on September 1st to demonstrate the need for a booster shot that consists of half the dosage of the original shots. And why? Because in Moderna, original dosage is 100 microgram per shot, whereas BioNTech is only 30 microgram per shot. And that's why to have those is a 15 microgram per shot for Moderna for the mRNA material. And that'll bring the dosage more in line with the BioNTech dosage. And maybe that's why Moderna has been more effective in generating antibodies because it's actually higher content with regard to mRNA. Both Pfizer and Moderna have submitted information to the FDA for the COVID-19 shot for kids ranging from age 5 to 11. And most likely Pfizer-BioNTech will get approval in October. In the meanwhile, Novavax has submitted their application to the WHO for emergency listing of the COVID vaccine. And the Novavax is developed using a new technology called a subunit protein vaccine. Actually, the first COVID vaccine developed under this technology that's very close to getting approved. And at this point, even though the advocacy is supposed to be about 90%, but it's still unproven as far as how much of a long-term effect it might have against the original variant as well as new variants, such as a Delta variant. And that's why at this point, I don't think Novavax is a serious competition for Moderna or BioNTech, not at this point yet. In the meanwhile, it was reported that Novavax also had some manufacturing issues. Why do I think Moderna and BioNTech will recover? Number one, because all the scientists, including the FDA panel, agree that the effectiveness of the COVID vaccine does fade over time, it's just a matter of how soon. So even they haven't approved the vaccine for all adults at this point, within one or two months, I'm pretty sure they will give the approval. The mRNA technology offers vaccines that are more than 90% effective, which is really a revolutionary type of technology better than anything else in history. And also, the fast development cycle for mRNA vaccine will beat out all the other vaccines against any future viruses. The COVID vaccines are needed by almost everyone in the world, unlike any other typical pharmaceutical products. And there are very few competitions against Moderna and BioNTech. It took only one and a half years for the alpha strain to mutate into the very dangerous and contagious Delta strain. And that's why more variants are expected in the future, which will call for rapid development of booster vaccines. And there are many additional products in the Moderna and BioNTech pipeline, which will ensure steady streams of income for both companies. Because of these reasons, I believe Moderna and BioNTech will recover, and they will be very good long-term investments. At this point, I'd like to mention that I'm not a financial advisor. I share my analyses and stock trading strategies for educational purpose only. If you want to buy or sell stocks, you should make your own decisions, and you should definitely consult with your financial advisors before you do so. Let's continue. Let's look at the new daily COVID cases in the US. You can see we had a peak back in November through January. Then it came down, and then because of the Delta variant, it picked up again, starting around July of this year, and finally things are starting to get under control. As far as the daily death rate, again, we had a big peak here, corresponding to this peak here with new cases. And then it came down after the vaccination started, and then the Delta variant happened, picked up again. Now we are finally seeing it comes down a little bit, but it's not low enough yet at this point, unfortunately. If you look at Israel, similar pattern, except it has gone down a lot faster after the second peak or actually with Israel is more like the third peak. The third peak was in July of this year, and they've come down a lot. And most likely it's because of the more booster shots they've administered. They have started to administer booster shots to all adults. And if you look at the vaccination rate, in the US, 68% of the people received the first shot, 56% received the second shot, Israel, 68% first shot, 62%, 62% fully vaccinated. And the main difference that 70% of Israelized aged 60 to 69 have already received a third Pfizer COVID vaccine. The US only started administering the third shot to people 65 and older. About two weeks ago, the percentage rate is definitely not as high as 70%, and hopefully we'll see the new COVID cases come down a lot more in the US in the next few weeks. If you look at United Kingdom, big peak again between November and January, and then second peak, and it came down a little bit, but it pretty much has been running flat, unfortunately it has not been coming down yet. Death rate, it started to come up a little bit, fortunately it's not very high. Germany, we see three peaks here, the most recent peak also started around July, August timeframe. It started to come down a little bit, but not as fast as the way it comes down in Israel. The death rate fortunately has not been too bad recently. If you look at the vaccination rate, 73% and 67% at UK, 68%, 65% at Germany, pretty much the same as the US and Israel. And at this point, they are not really widely administering the third shot yet in the UK and in Germany. If you look at worldwide data, we see these peaks here, the most recent peak correspond mostly to the Delta variant, it's been coming down a little bit, but the daily new cases are still as high as 433,000 cases a day, which is very high. And sadly, the daily death is still at 7,000 or more a day, and definitely the world needs a lot more vaccines. According to Bloomberg vaccine tracker, more than 6.33 billion doses have been administered, 41.2% of global population have received the vaccine, that means about 58% of populations do need the vaccine, and the latest rate was roughly 31.6 million doses a day. And from these numbers, I extrapolate that more than 6 billion doses are still needed for the unvaccinated. In the meanwhile, for people who have been vaccinated, they will need more than 4 billion doses of booster shots just in 2022 alone. And that's based on the assumption of about 8 months interval between the booster shot and the second shot. So that's more than 10 billion doses needed for the world in 2022 alone. Moderna and BioNTech will certainly contribute to some of those doses. A few news items about vaccine production. South Africa has been trying to replicate the Moderna vaccine, but they have not been making much progress. Even though Moderna has already waived its patent production for the COVID vaccine, but the manufacturing know how still has to be learned step by step, and it will take more than one year for any company to do that. In the meanwhile, Pfizer and BioNTech have set up joint venture in Brazil, South Africa and Singapore, to produce more vaccines around the world, and Moderna has signed an agreement with the South Korean company to produce Moderna vaccines for Asia. Definitely will be seeing a lot more Moderna and BioNTech vaccines produced around the world in 2022. Let's look at the evaluation of the two companies. First of all, let's look at some of the volume and sales estimates. According to Moderna, they are gearing up to produce up to 3 billion doses in 2022, and for this year 2021, they expect to produce between 800 million and 1 billion doses. The projection is that they expect to have a sales of $20 billion for 2021. In the meanwhile, they have a very strong product pipeline. Of course, one product, which is the COVID vaccine, is already in the commercial phase, and they have six products in phase two, and one of them, the CMV vaccines, is almost ready for phase three. And they have nine products in phase one and 13 in preclinical development. And that's why I think Moderna has a very strong long term future. It's definitely not a one product company. Previously on September 6, I showed a calculation here, and I reached these valuations for the company for 2021, 2022, and 2023, ranging from $356 to $1100 to $614. And I targeted the price at $460 to be reached by the end of October 2021. In light of what developed in the last few days, especially with the news about Merg and the market sentiments and the boosted shot, I've revised my numbers slightly downward to reflect the revenue estimate from Moderna Management, which is a very conservative estimate for 2021. And I lowered my projection for the volume for 2022 and 23. And with these revisions, I reached this range from $307 to $461 to $406. And with these numbers, I decided to lower my target a little bit to $430 to be reached by the end of December 2021, BioNTech. First of all, Pfizer has expected $3 billion doses this year for volume projection. Of course, whatever Pfizer sells, that's also the sales volume for BioNTech, except they split the profit 50-50. As far as sales projection, BioNTech is expecting more than $18 billion of sales for the COVID vaccine for this year. And they also have quite a few products in their pipeline, but their pipeline is not as strong as Moderna's. They have one product in commercial phase, of course, that's a COVID vaccine. They have one in phase two and 11 in phase one and 14 in pre-clinical development. I think BioNTech will catch on, and I believe this company will still be very successful in the long term. Also, September 6, I showed this calculation and arrived at the valuations of 671 for 2021, 102 for 2022, and 575 for 2023, and I picked a target of 420 to be reached by the end of October 2021. For this round, I've revised my number slightly to be more conservative, I lowered the price a little bit for each dose, and I lowered the volume projection for 21, 22, and 23. And with these revisions, I got the range of stock prices from 473 to 575 to 498. And with these numbers, I decided to pick a target of still 420 to be reached by the end of December 2021. In other words, I have not changed my price target for BioNTech. Let's look at the other analyst's opinions. From Moderna, the price went from 416 to 341 between September 6 and today. And my new price target is 430, reduced from 460. Yahoo Business actually increased their high target, also increased the medium target and increased the low target pretty much. It's the same for TipRanks and CN Money, they both increased their targets, but in light of what's happened in the last few days, I feel comfortable with my new target of 430, which is still substantially higher than the current price. And that's why I'll most likely be buying more Moderna shares in the next few days. And I'll be informing my subscribers by way of my Twitter messages when I buy more shares. Let's look at BioNTech. The price of course went from 334 on September 6 to 254, also today. And my target is unchanged at 420. If you look at the other analyst's ratings, pretty much we see increases all around for high, medium, low targets. That's why the professional analysts are still optimistic about BioNTech. In the meanwhile, I feel comfortable with my price target of 420, which is somewhere between the high and medium targets among the analysts. Let's recap my new price target. I expect Moderna to reach 430 a share and BioNTech to reach $420 a share by the end of this year, 2021. And also today Moderna is at 341 a share and BioNTech at 254 a share. What are my strategies? I've been holding Moderna and BioNTech shares for the long term because as I mentioned, I'm optimistic about these two companies for the long term and I've been swing trading the rest of the shares. I would sell whenever the price pulls back at a major resistance point or when adverse news develop. For example, when the market started to overreact to the news about the Merck COVID pills because the technical indicators were very bearish. That's why I started to sell BioNTech shares and that turned out to be a good move because since then the price of BioNTech has dropped even further. And I will buy when the price bounces back from a major support point or when positive news develops. And that's why I'll be buying Moderna and BioNTech shares in the next few days. Because S&P has also dropped about 5 to 6% in the last couple of weeks, the broad market is really slipping recently and that's why almost all stocks went down with the broad market. I'll be waiting for the broad market to recover before I buy a lot more Moderna and BioNTech shares and I will update my subscribers by way of my Twitter messages. At this point I'd like to suggest that I just subscribe to my Twitter account which is Dan Market L in addition to subscribing to my YouTube channel. With my Twitter account, for example, on September 24th I tweeted that I sold some BioNTech shares I bought on 9.22 for a small profit. At that point the price was dropping and since then the price dropped even more. And then on September 27th I tweeted that I sold more BioNTech shares and TQQ shares because the market was dropping. Part of that was influenced by the deterioration of this real estate company Evergrand in China and a lot of people are saying that Evergrand is the Chinese equivalent of Lehman Brothers back in 2008 although it's not as bad as Lehman Brothers but at least as bad as Bear Stearns. I published a couple of recent videos on the situation with Evergrand and in China. You might want to check them out. Actually both trades turned out to be very good moves because BioNTech's price certainly dropped more after I sold the shares and at this point especially if the broad market starts to recover if you see S&P and NASDAQ start to pick up in the next few days then everything will rise with the broad market and at that point I would definitely buy more BioNTech shares. Even though I've been selling BioNTech shares I still hold a certain number of BioNTech shares and Moderna shares because as I stated previously I will be holding half of my shares for long term and swing trading the other half. Again I'd like to remind you to click the like, subscribe and notification button. As usual I welcome your comments, questions and suggestions. That's about wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investment.