 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got some fantastic games on tap across week 14 in the NFL We have got the Cowboys and the Eagles chiefs and bills with big playoff implications Both in terms of seating and he will make in the playoffs as well We're gonna break down those games plus others to get you ready for week 14 by talking to Dr. Ed Fang and picking his brain and what his number say about week 14's games This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Thursday by Dr. Ed Fang you can find his work at the power bank comm check him out on Twitter at the power Icon Ed didn't get to talk to you about college football this week because we were into the postseason there now But obviously a very interesting weekend across the conference championships in the playoffs election with Michigan Getting the one seeds. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. It was nice to see Michigan get a win. It was kind of a weird game against Iowa I actually thought they I thought it was worse looking at watching the game I thought I was defense played really well really bottled up a bunch of things that Michigan wanted to do but then I looked at the metrics and like I Mean, I didn't really change Michigan at all based on what happened And then you consider the pretty sure-handed Colson Loveland dropped a couple third down passes that could have really changed You know the narrative in terms of you know when you were watching the game, so yeah, obviously all the fireworks happen Sunday Yeah, all the fireworks happening Sunday with FSU being omitted despite the fact they won their conference championship They were 13 and 0 and and you understand why for sure and You understand why you understand why FSU fans be very frustrated You get the argument from their behalf and I guess Ed It's situation where I get every argument here and I do feel bad for FSU people I understand people saying they should have been let in because of what they did but also like as a Very selfish more casual college football fan. I'm a lot more intrigued by Michigan, Alabama than I am by Michigan FSU personally, so I see it from all sides But like just like a football watching perspective selfishly I kind of did want the committee to do what they did Exactly Michigan, Alabama's I mean, it's essentially a coin flip. Yeah, I think that's what the markets are saying I think that's what my numbers are saying and it's gonna be exciting Florida State look the committee has always talked about putting the four best teams in there And they've never really put the four best teams in there but the fact that they've been talking about putting the four best teams in there kind of gave them in and out with You know, let me Florida States not one of the best four teams right now In fact, they weren't one of the four best teams with Jordan Travis. I would make the argument But that that's a discussion for another day You know, they did put the better team in there. So, you know, I guess hats off to them I understand the frustration with Florida State I would not be happy if I were someone like but Elliot whose income kind of depends on You know a Florida State podcast and you know interest in that and then Yeah Anyway, I like I think one thing that is pretty interesting I think we have a lot of people complaining about like 12 team playoff and like oh, there's gonna be a three-loss team in there Yada yada yada, but I actually don't hear anyone saying man, this four team playoff sucks. Let's go back to the bcs Let's just have Michigan Washington in a game. Like I don't hear that. Maybe I'm missing it Maybe I'm not scrolling my my Twitter screen enough, but we're gonna get to the playoff next year It's gonna be great. It's gonna be I mean just the bonanza in terms of money. It's great for my business It's great for your business gym, right? Everything's gonna be good. No one's gonna be like, hey, let's go back to four teams Um, so, you know, we just gotta wait out one more year and it's it's gonna be fun You know, this is kind of like my glory week, uh, out of like my entire career doing college football because I've decided not to put too much effort in the bowls really just not my Strong house, you know numbers are just not going to be the best when there's so many opt outs and late breaking news It's essentially become like betting NFL preseason Which is something I don't do Next year when the playoff comes going to be really busy this past week Uh, getting ready, you know getting ready for the playoff, but this is the one year It's kind of like, yeah, this this has kind of been a nice week Of course, uh a whole bunch of NFL stuff like dropped in my lap this week So it's not like I was doing nothing But it's an interesting year out of You know the decade Past and hopefully decades future that that I do college football. It's an interesting year Well, like the 12 team playoff like I get, you know, again I understand what people might not want it and stuff like that But like from my perspective like there were a lot of fun teams that were ranked 5 through 12 this year like George is a good football team and they were the six ranked team Like there are a really good football team Do I want to watch Georgia play more meaningful games? Heck, yeah, I do like absolutely that'd be a lot of fun Ohio State a good football team I'm assuming if they had been the playoff Kyle McCord would not have entered the transfer portal at that time Bo Nix in Oregon would have been ranked eighth like That's fun setup. Like that's some fun football teams and like I I get it from a lot of different angles like it does D value regular season a tiny bit compared to what it is right now But like those games will still matter a lot for seeding perspective like those those buys for the top four seeds Are going to matter a lot. So I I'm just excited for it. Honestly. I think it's going to be great getting to watch more Brock Bowers and meaningful games like I think that that's all that's all super positive. So I I'm just pumped for next year it's bummer for teams like fsu, but like You know, we're getting more fun games this year. We're going to get a lot more fun games next year, too So I'm all in favor of all of it for sure Absolutely I mean, I do I do get that it devalues some of the regular season games and Michigan Ohio State this year was truly special because everything was on the line for for both these teams But it doesn't mean that people aren't going to watch it next year. It's still going to be a good game between two great programs So I think I think I think people like to complain about a lot of things. Um I think next year is going to be great It could still mean a lot too Like if one of those teams the one loss team and a second loss knocks them out Like knocks them out of the big 10 championship game when there are no divisions Like there are a lot of ways those games can mean a lot even if it's not, you know, single loss elimination type things So that'll be a whole lot of fun for sure next year and the more immediate future We've got some nfl to break down in week 14 And like I said really fun slate will break down here and just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts are Preview of the banger game between these Steelers and Patriots is already up with Tom Vecchio Breaking down his thoughts on a that game for Thursday night football That is in the covering the spread podcast feed and the fan dual tv plus app as well Tomorrow we're talking to tom as well for some nfl props austin castle swing by to break down epl uh match week 15 as well getting more soccer on the show Once again all right here in the covering the spread podcast feed the fando youtube page and fan dual tv plus Score early this nfl season with fan dual america's number one sports book right now new customers Get 150 dollars in bonus beds with any winning five dollar money line bet That's 150 bucks if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining fan dual There is no better time to get in on the action the app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more So visit fan dual and kick off the nfl season fan dual official partner of the nfl Must be 21 plus in president select states fan dual is offering online sports wagering in kansas Under an agreement with kansas stark as you know llc first online real money wager only Five dollar pregame money line wager required $10 first deposit required Bonus issued as non-modrable bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat See terms at sportsbook dot fan dual dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fan dual dot com slash rg In colorado iowa michigan new jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois kentucky tennessee and virginia call 1 800 next step Or text next step to five three three four two in arizona one eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven Over the ccpg dot org slash chat in connecticut one eight hundred nine with it in indiana One eight hundred five two two forty seven hundred visit ks gambling all common kansas One eight seven seven seven seven seven zero stop in louisiana visit md gambling health and organ maryland 1 800 gambler dot net in west virginia 1 800 five two two forty seven hundred in wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline m a dot org Or call 803 to 750 50 for 24 seven support in massachusetts or call 187 70 hope and why or text hope and why in new york Now i mentioned before thursday night football at the topic i want to touch on at least partially here ed because looking at week 14 There are a lot of super super low totals It's not just that game but also the browns jags game total is 31 and a half for that game right now and For most this year my model has been able to keep pace with the market in terms of having very low totals I've had a lot of the lowest totals i've had i've been this year but This week i'm showing value a lot of overs and i don't know if it's like Unders just got a lot of steam or whatever it may be But i want to ask you to kind of get a sanity check here to make sure i'm not losing my mind because i like a lot of He's overs but do you have any interest in betting toward the mean with these outlier spots or Is it hard to grasp how bad some offenses truly are right now? Yeah, i think it is hard to grasp how bad offenses are and core back injuries are Definitely the first culprit everybody came on my podcast the football analytics show and i asked them what his biggest takeaway from the season was and and he talked about how offensives sucked and He talked about a lot of different things but one thing that really stuck out is that teams are playing light boxes more on defense and Offenses are not being as efficient running against those light boxes. So maybe that's noise but that It's it's an interesting little fact and stuff that i don't think you can look up publicly I think edward has access to some nfl next gen data So again, you know, we're kind of playing the signal versus noise kind of thing and I went back and looked at some of my numbers and it's not just a decrease this year it's kind of a Decrease since 2020 you look at how points per game have dropped from 24.7 to 21.7 this season Success rate has dropped every single season We're looking at 42.1 percent passing success rate compared to about almost 46 yards for past attempt has dropped to So it's overall Decrease in efficiency overall and the passing metrics that I use I don't know bad ball rate is up to it's 12.2 percent compared about 11.6 percent over the last couple of seasons So there probably is some systematic Thing going on with offenses being less efficient And I don't think it's necessarily just this year with the quarterback injuries I think it's an overall trend over the last four years. It'll be interesting to see the league Changes rules or whatever to to fix it. I do think there probably is some signal in the decrease That certainly doesn't mean you shouldn't bend over if your model is saying that But I think the overall trends are kind of pointing down and and not just the season Yeah, definitely and I think that for me that's part of why I've been okay with having Having my model say it should have valued unders previously is because like okay I can project for a back of quarterback and stuff like that and to this point the year was never an issue It's just like this this week specifically like looking at totals for this week Like it's a lot of overs and it's not all overs and low totals like I have the over on C ox 49ers or 46 and a half. So like that's a that's a higher total too, but It is like The the jags browns game. It's gone up a point. So like that is slight validation I I have the over for tonight's game, which may sound very stupid by the time you listen to this But like I did take over 38 30 in that one. So I mean 30 is just so low, right? It's the lowest in like decades. Yeah And like defensive touchdowns can happen so like Yeah, you know, I just I'm having a hard time getting there despite the fact like my model knows how bad these quarterbacks have been I can project Bailey zappy to be terrible Um, and it's still showing value in the over but I don't know It's just it's tough to get there for a lot of these. So We'll see how it goes. Luckily Ed. We're not talking about those games We break down games for today And so we're talking about some fun games beginning with the seahawks in the 49ers right now The 49ers are 10 and a half point favorites in the total in this game is 46 and a half We just saw these two teams square off back on Thanksgiving in that game 49ers took care of business covered the spread They scored 31 points. Can they do so again? Given this lofty spread here Yeah, I don't know. I mean the Niners have been really on a heater ever since the Cincinnati game over the last four games They won every game by 13 or more points and um So it's not surprising that this spread would be 10 and a half And it's not surprising that my model cannot catch up with it because my model tends to assume more Regression to the mean I've Niners by about eight Um, you know Seattle is the definition of NFL average I had them within a point of NFL average this pre season and Both my market model based on closing point spreads adjusted for who you played And then all the data from this current season they all say that Seattle's with within a point Of of of NFL average. So let's just assume, you know, they have a rating of zero This is a division game. So I'm giving about 1.3 points to The Niners for being at home. So you have to believe that the Niners are Nine or more points better than NFL average That's a tall order. I mean, that's that's like some of the best teams that we've seen Over the past decade. Could they be one of these teams? Sure, maybe but um, you know This is a big spread. I like Seattle plus 10 and a half. Um I I can't I can't quite get there. Seattle is not a terrible team Uh, the Niners, I I just don't think are quite that good. I do think there are some out here And I think there's also a bit of like recency bias Because we did just see this game and the Niners covered there They I think it was seven and a half was the spread for that game. They won by 18 in that one Um, and then they beat the Eagles in that high profile game pretty handily On the road there now they come back home Seattle's on extra rest. That's a benefit in their favor as well So a lot of factors pointing to the seahawks in this game I guess like It is tough mentally to bet the seahawks given how good the formula is Look, that's kind of the point, right? Like is your betting against the market and like we have those biases We're betting and people are reluctant to bet the seahawks here Then that may imply there's value in the 49 or there's value in the seahawks because people are reluctant to bet them No matter what the number may be Yeah, absolutely. I mean, this is just a big spread against You know, probably not a terrible Seattle team. I think they're I think they're uh, good They have a lot of talent young talent on defense. You know, Smith's not terrible They have a pretty good set of wide receivers Not many injuries on either side either. Uh, so It's a game that you can really trust the numbers Also, Gino and that Thanksgiving game had that banged up elbow that he hurt on the sunday before it and then Still played thursday, but then looked really good against Dallas. That was indoors So that does matter, but this game I think it's like three mile per hour wins at santa clara for sunday So not a lot of win to discuss there part of why I like the over in this game is that so I think it should be a fun one out in California Let's talk now about the bills and the cheats. We're right now fangirl sportsbook has the cheats as very slim favorites point A half in their favor right now Total of this game is 48 and a half and that's spread as tight from where it was earlier on this week It was minus two and a half. It's now minus one and a half Do you agree with that movement towards the bills in this game? I think I can make the case for why it's moving that way Look buffalo is probably one of the most talented teams. It really hasn't worked out from there for them this year Uh, I kind of feel a little bit like a broken record But we've talked about how bad their defense has performed this year They're 31st when I look at passing success rate adjusted for opponent But I really don't think even with other injuries that um, that they're that bad I think they have some decent players in the secondary Um, you know, there's some signs. They're 13th when you look at adjusted yards for pass attempt Success rate is stickier in terms of predicting the future, but you know when you have that wide gap you can kind of I mean, I think they're better better than that and I think buffalo is a pretty good team Josh Allen the offense has been great. They're fourth in my adjusted passing success rate. Um, you know, they have they have all those weapons But on the other hand, you know, my model has kansas city by four point two points So I do like not having to bet. I mean two and a half is fine A fine number, but if you're gonna if you're gonna bet kansas city one and a half is is also good Uh with kansas city, um, there are some injuries. Isaiah pacheco is uh, not practicing although I feel like he should play um, you know in patrick mchomes hasn't been great, uh So, I mean not up to as usual lofty standards, right? And They did get a little screwed with that pass interference. Uh on monday night against green bay Could have really won that game. I guess they got to convert a two point conversion as well. Um I mean if I lean any direction it would be kansas city minus one and a half here Yeah, I did take the bill's money line at plus 118 on tuesday or I took that on monday, I think but then talked about on the show on tuesday and The reason why I was there is because I have this is basically a toss-up I have 49.8 for the bills, uh, which implied there is value there at plus 102 That means there's no value left in their money line right now I do agree with you that the pacheco injury is Significant for the cheese if he doesn't want to play now the situation for him was He had a run I was watching pretty closely because I had him as uh in the mvp slot and uh My single game lineups and I had a couple of You know, they give you like the bonus bet same game parlays. I'm not a huge fan in general But like hey, it's if it's a bonus bet sure, whatever. I'll I'll play my part Um, and so I had like some of that stuff tied to pacheco There was a play where he came off and like he was like It was I think it was the last play in the third quarter He like kind of motioned toward the sideline, but then like stayed in the game I could be totally making that up But I thought I saw a motion towards the sideline, but then he stayed in And I'm not sure if that's where it happened. They're calling the shoulder confusion And I always assume that means he'll play But not practicing again thursday is concerning the reason that that matters is Like they they just been a very good rushing team recently Which they hadn't been earlier on this year and like it keeps the bills honest So I I think that like pacheco does matter. I still think there's a good shot that he plays like a Probably 50 chance that he plays in this game despite missing practice again Uh, but like it would be a downgrade dot to have him, uh for sure. So I don't know. I I like the bills of plus 118 plus one or two. I don't see any value anymore So I would stay away from it personally, uh, but I do think that I get what you're saying with the minus one and a half Just as a as a by-law spot on the chiefs Um, right given that there's kind of some bad sentiments in the betting market around them right now right, I mean in general like I mean my Numbers probably I think they're probably spot on with kc and it may be a little bit low on buffalo but I mean there's a little bit of wiggle room where I have it by You know over four points Right, exactly. So ed leaning towards the chiefs minus one and a half in this one Let's finish up though with the headliner from week number 14 That is the eagles at the cowboys are right now total in this game Is 51 and a half and the spread is a cowboys minus three and a half and we finally saw the eagles Kind of get punched in the mouth last week and now they get another tough task on the road So ed can the eagles bounce back and cover here or the cowboy is moving to a tie for the lead in the nfc east Yeah, I mean look my numbers have dialed by about a point. So kind of showing value but Uh, unlike last week when I had value on philly and I was able to I don't know. I just thought san francisco being Favorite at philly was just too much didn't work out. Um I think I mentioned that I think philly is overrated. I do think philly is overrated I I wouldn't bet this even though my numbers have it. I do think dallas is probably going to get this win at home Look philly seven and one and one score games, which is which is kind of crazy I actually looked up some of uh jaylon herds' pff numbers So he he had a pff passing grade of 84 last year And it's only down a little bit to like 81. Um It seems like it should be down a little bit more But when I was looking at that at that, uh, it was interesting to see we talked about how scoring is down But you know Last year, let's see. Sorry this year. There are 13 quarterbacks that have a passing grade over 80 And last year there were six So there are actually more quarterbacks that are doing well this year Maybe it's balanced by the just awfulness of of some of the lower lower graded quarterbacks Um Anyways jaylon herds is outside the top 10 this year. That's how I view him as a passer I just don't think he is in a top 10 when we're talking about passing. Obviously he brings other things to this game I just think there's a ton of questions with it with the zealots team With dallas, we kind of wrote him off after that san francisco game a long time ago But before that like we were really pumped about I think I have a bet on dallas winning the division I mean, I like dallas coming into the season uh Kind of sold on him a little bit there in the middle, but they've looked pretty good recently I think we're back to where we think dallas is uh, you know one of the one of the primary contenders to make the super bowl out of the nfc um I don't know. I think the market's fine. I wouldn't bet this Yeah, I'm pretty much in the same spot. I mentioned before that I don't trust my one model when it comes to the eagles because Because the way of use passing efficiency and they don't grade out as well there The other one actually does have dallas minus four and again, that's the one That's a bit higher on philly. So even that one's showing a bit of value But it's not a ton not enough where I'd be willing to bet it but Um, the minus three and a half is actually even money right now fando sportsbook. So potentially A bit more enticing there, but again, it's not a big enough Um big enough gap to for me to get super intrigued. I think the most interesting thing here is actually the total So I talked before about how like, you know, I'm seeing a lot of value in overs on low totals I actually have this one is pretty much spot on now It's very hard typically for me to show value in a high total with a decently tight spread because high totals correlate Towards larger spreads So you wouldn't expect to see a high total be a fair like number when the spread is tight like this But I've actually got this total at 51.1 so What that says to me yet is this game is going to rock because it's it's a good offensive environment It is indoors. There is no wind here So like that does nothing to you for for you from a betting perspective because it's saying the market's efficient But I think the fact that market is efficient given how high the total is for a game with a tight spread I'm pretty jazzed about that. So from a a football fan perspective that gets me excited Yeah, and it's got the nice sunday night slot. It should be a pretty good football game I'm hoping the Eagles can kind of do their best to stay in there and maybe potentially win it but um But yeah, I think Dallas is right. I feel like favored. I did have one question for you Ed when you were looking at Jalen Hertz's pff grade Uh, this is overall grade not just passing grade. Did you happen to notice the player right in front of him? Uh, I did not It is Brock Purdy who I've been told is not deserving of the the mvp award because he he benefits too much from his environment Although Jalen Hertz is third in mvp odds right now Brock purdy is above him in pff grade and like I'm not saying like you should Like Brock purdy should be mvp. I just think it's very funny the way the discourse has dismissed him of like, oh His stats are propped up by his his environment by his coaching staff, which they are that's true But like, you know, it's not like he's terrible And I think the people kind of take that a bit too far sometimes and like dismissing Brock purdy Just because he has good circumstances Yeah, yeah for sure. Um Yeah, I don't know. I don't I don't know what I mean, it's interesting to think what we'll be saying about Brock purdy in two years Right. Well, let's just be a blip Yeah, um, you know, I mean Daniel Jones came out of the the gate roaring. Yeah in the NFL Uh, he was he was pretty good when they when they first threw him out there as a rookie That hasn't worked out quite so well. So we'll see what we're saying about purdy in the future You know, whether he's with the Niners whether he's with another team Um That's the fun part about being an analyst Absolutely. Alrighty Ed beyond those games any other spots where you see value across week 14 Yeah, so I want to talk a little bit about this Thursday night game because I think you can make the case for, uh some value in Pittsburgh So what actually has been keeping me busy this week is that I actually reworked my model over the summer um, I was able to figure out I was able to Uh adopt my algorithm for making schedule adjustments to account for individual quarterbacks, right? You could say yeah, you should have done this since beginning Ed, but look, I got it done this off season and uh Finally with all the injuries and with the lack of college football this week I got around to to implementing it and it's pretty interesting because uh Bailey zappy is is kind of historically bad when you when you look at it When you get look, it's only 71 attempts, but you know, he's predicted to have a passing success rate of 27 percent Against an average NFL defense the NFL average is about 15 percent So, you know the second worst on this list is Tommy DeVito at 32 percent. So there's there's a huge gap and um When when you make a number, okay So before what I would do when accounting for quarterback injuries would just Would be to rely on the market model um You get a couple of games and and you get some sense of What the market thinks of that team compared to NFL average and now I actually have a way of doing a database Uh way of doing it both through success rate and yards for past attempts But when you did it was zappy, I mean you you got something like Pittsburgh by like 10 or something and So you and you can argue like if zappy's going to continue to be that bad Like Pittsburgh, which should be a 10 point favorite, but then you sit back and think oh Pittsburgh is going to be a 10 point favorite with mr. Biskey at the quarterback position It didn't make a ton of sense, right and so um You I actually get about Pittsburgh minus six when you assume that new england is about three I I use the market value for for new england saying, uh, okay We don't have a ton of don't have a ton of stats on on zappy. Let's just go with that If you assume that they are about three points worse Maybe four maybe more. I don't remember the number but That would give you uh what the market has for Pittsburgh So I do think you can make the case for Pittsburgh side here But it's just when you sit back and think about it. It doesn't make a ton of sense. So Uh, it's an interesting game. I I mean I I haven't I haven't bet on Pittsburgh here But I thought it was an interesting thing to talk about for this week I'm curious what the number said about trabisky in that sense because it's a larger sample on him But it's also been a pretty long time since we've seen him actually get reps at quarterback and like for me when I'm I don't know if this is wrong But like I view there as being almost no difference between picket and trabisky So that's part of why I should value the over here is because like I don't even make a difference I think picket kind of sucks. So like Like that's part of it why I should value the over there part of why bet steward's minus six Uh, so I'm curious what the number said regarding those two. Yeah, I mean for trabisky It's it's 50 past temps right and I have about 3% better than nfl average when you make the adjustments But again small sample size. I don't expect him to be better than nfl average Especially with the weapons that they has on that on that pittsburgh offense um, so I think overall When you looked at everything I think pittsburgh was Like exactly nfl average when you looked at just trabisky's numbers and the market model with him Okay, well Putting my money on uh, mitch trabisky via the over and via steward's minus six What could possibly go wrong who is ever regretted having financial? Implications tied to mitchell trabisky in their entire life That is all that we have here for today here on covering the spread But add a lot of stuff cooking for you over at the power bank. What's going on over there and on the football analytic show I had a great conversation with professor edward egros on the football analytic show We talked about the nfl and why offenses sucked talked about the college football semifinal games So get that wherever you get your podcasts and then check out my uh free sports betting email newsletter If you're looking for action on any given weekend, this is the free service for you You can check that out at the power rank dot com. It's my curated list. Uh, sometimes it's my bet. Sometimes it's other people's bets Um, but check that out at the power rank dot com All right and find ed on twitter at the power rank. You can find me on twitter at jim sonnis I am on threads at jim dot sonnis. You can find fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across week 14 Back again tomorrow to break down some props and some epl bets. We'll talk to you all then This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network