 Okay, very good morning to you. Hope you're doing well. It is Thursday the 7th of May Before I begin just a quick introduction To myself and amplify for anyone new joining the the channel My name is Anthony Chung as you can see here. My role is head of market analysis. So Why are you watching this session while my job? basically as I'm My specialism is in analyzing intraday fundamentals So typically then my working background has been over the course of the last 14 years or so monitoring Intraday Information so economic data releases like we've just had the Bank of England rate decision So I'd be responsible for prepping up traders for what can they expect how are markets positioned? What are the scenarios of which how the market might react under different pieces of information? And then that coupled with just generally Planning for the day ahead What could be the next thing that Trump could say about China? What would need to happen in order to move the S&P or what could be the outlook for the oil market? Given the recent moving to negative prices that we've had so all of that type of information is what I would be Covering much lesser extent on the technical analysis side So we have different guys that look at that the reason why People come to me is because fundamentals generally is an area quite underserved and misunderstood Because a lot of retail traders obviously look at this and they're a little bit stuck on where to even begin Just given the wealth of information that there is so definitely my job is to help break that down and hopefully Become a little bit of your routine. So prior to joining Amplify I used to run a desk where I was servicing basically tens of thousands of clients Doing this as a full-time job Whereas now my job is pivoted where I do a little bit more on the teaching side about how to how to learn the fundamentals And how to formulate then that is to a key component of your trading strategies because that then leads us on to Amplify trading so Amplify trading is Originated as a proprietary trading firm started back in 2009 We have since though Developed as a business. We now have a technology arm and we also then have a Financial education arm which includes using that technology For simulation training has been adopted by banks all over the world like City BMP Credit Suisse. They all use our software But that also then feeds through into the Trader Division as well where we have intensive training programs where people get to trade our capital So if you want to have a look just jump on to Amplify trading comm There's this the three main sections there. I just mentioned our kind of trading arm If you're a student interested in basically getting some hands-on practical learning over the summer period Even the summer the same we're doing it fully online But we do things like sales trading more corporate finance advisory stuff like IPO M&A training So everything to get you ready for your potential future job So yeah, check that out when you get a moment and don't forget to subscribe to the channel because I've got a special video I've asked my colleague Eddie to shoot In regard to a few questions about what does Warren Buffett and he's exiting of north of six billion dollars worth of positions That was in the headlines this week. What does that mean? How should we interpret that from as well as a trading but investment point of view and he's done an excellent Kind of short video on that which I'm going to release later on this afternoon So if you subscribe hit that notification bell, you'll get an alert when that goes when that goes live but a quick look at the charts this morning and What is going on? Not a great deal but a fluctuation in the pound. I'm going to get into that in a bit more detail shortly The pound chart against the dollar is that top-center one here? You can see cable has just jumped a fairly decent amount. I guess a amount of 45 pit move or so Springing up to pivot before finding a bit of resistance that currency move Definitely sterling lead and that just meant a little dip in the dollar So Aussie euro just taking a slight lift on the back of that Given the the catalyst being the Bank of England, otherwise elsewhere equity index futures US slightly positive the DAX pretty much flat We did have a lower close on Wall Street and slightly negative overnight in Asia And on that note, let's just have a review of some things on that front This is the heat map for the S&P 500 and looking at the close from yesterday and quite an interesting disconnect at the moment obviously a lot of people looking at the details around the relaxation of these the loosening of the lockdown measures globally and in particular in the US and What we saw yesterday was quite a As I said a disconnect between the S&P in the Dow finishing lower, but the Nasdaq actually finishing a positive And some of these bigger tech names like Microsoft Apple but also consumer cyclical and in the internet retail space people like Amazon are actually outperforming and obviously that's a Meaningful in a sense of for one these obviously very large companies and a positive move in their share price has an overall bigger proportionate index waiting, but it does go to show some way The general status of at the moment people working from home Of course has meant that there's more demands on some of these relatable services Particularly things like Microsoft for example, they have that Microsoft Teams product using their more owners on the cloud computing Availability and things like that and Amazon of course as we know pick up in general Consumer demand just given the situation with the lockdown. So yeah quite an interesting reflection of just generally What's going on at this point in time? And the other interesting observation has been how quickly generally the volatility in market has died down This isn't looking at the VIX index. This is just looking at the daily high-low spread and you can see where we were Just a seesaw price action. We were seeing in March when you know, we were right in the The period of the least visibility about knowing what the future held for this virus now as we know with all of the global Trajectories we've either plateaued or decreasing You know, hopefully that continues But at that point was when we're in the acceleration phase and of course when we're in that type of phase as we were You know about six seven weeks ago That was the most uncertainty and hence the reason why you had the most volatility also in between then of course you've had, you know, unprecedented unprecedentedly large Fiscal and monetary action that's taken place and obviously that's helps kind of steady the ship at least for the time being All things remaining equal. So yeah, those days of this kind of mass Shakeouts in the market that were quite clearly evident in March definitely have dissipated quite sharply So again, it's kind of you know adapting to the conditions as you see it not trying to Think that you know, what was happening is just going to repeat on every single occasion because that's definitely not the case at the moment Overnight, you didn't have some Chinese data Interestingly as you can see here, we're looking at black line is exports and the red line is imports and Exports in China unexpectedly rose in April aided by stronger shipments to Southeast China However, one of the things here is that although that black line is quite positive, of course It was before it was a negative 17.2% and it sprung back up to a positive 3.5 percent Expectations were on the street for minus 11% so very strong on the exports however As this table or graphic would suggest Chinese exports usually starts slow due to lunar new year and then rise from April But the jump this year may only be temporary and the reason why people are saying that is well That's all well and good exports have jumped in April But if you actually break it down as I said some strong shipment orders in Southeast Asia But because of the global pandemic situation and given the fact that the rest of let's say the Western world is lagging Of that of the break outbreak in mainland China They're definitely is not expected to be in a demand increase Anytime soon and so this export bounce being very largely seen in China is probably somewhat temporary in nature The other thing as well there was some other Chinese data that came out overnight That was the case in Marquette services which underscored weakness in the economy in its service sector which contracted for the third month in a row in April it also showed the second largest fall in export orders and the fastest rate of drop Job shedding on record for the Chinese services industry. So, you know, although you've got this Kind of empirical hard data coming out in the form of what we've had from the trade balance numbers and the export figures the forward-looking More softer PMI numbers are definitely more pessimistic going forward, which again solidifies this fact that The global economy isn't quite there yet as to where perhaps the domestic situation over the last months have been in China But then also even in these person managers Increasingly quite pessimistic about the longevity of any rebound of that nature So I wouldn't really read too much into the Chinese data as good as it sounds on the surface I think it's going to be largely brushed aside And I don't think it's really much of a contemplation for if you're thinking of trading strategies for US European assets Let's get down then to the the main event of the morning Quite unusual the Bank of England releasing their information at 7 o'clock They wanted to do this so that they could release it Alongside the financial stability report. You also get the monetary policy report And so there's a few different things that they released this morning and they wanted to release it early The new governor Andrew Bailey is talking with journalists. I understand the press pack now and his comments are going to be made Public at 10 o'clock this morning London time But what have they said? Well, as you can see here in this box. This is the current announcement that's just happened so They kept rates on hold absolutely no Surprise there unanimous decision 9-0 rates already They've taken that emergency Intermeeting step to bring them down to the lowest they've ever been in history That wasn't really what the market was looking for the potential was could they have Stepped up and increased their QE program now the QE program as you can see it here Is currently resides at 645 billion and again that's seen an increase as well of some 200 billion or so in this Emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic now the vote split there was not unanimous the vote split was 7-2 So Saunders and Haskell so if you think about that hawkish and dovish spectrum of policy makers Those two on the most dovish end. They actually wanted a hundred billion pound increase immediately as of this month now Why did they not get their way? Remember that's not happened They were dissenters the rest of the group heavily outweighed them 7-2 wanted no change in QE Well, if you think about the extension of their QE program that they've done in the last few weeks by an extra 200 billion if you actually break that down to the Bank of England's guilt purchases They're running about 13.5 billion pounds per week. So if you extrapolate that out week after week, you know To you hit that cumulative 200 billion They can effectively go until early July until they complete that initial announcement that they've already made So most analysts were of the belief as has been the action taken this morning That there was no need for them really to move this early to increase that program yet again So what else have they said? Well, they came out to basically ratified that point. They said that their existing stance for monetary policy is appropriate I think that's absolutely The expected and right course of action for them to take at the moment the pandemic at this point has been fairly stable, but of course as the relaxation of the lockdown happens that's when coinciding with this probably early June time they can make a better decision then of whether or not if there's a secondary wave Does it require more support of which the Bank of England has said then it is ready to take action to support the economy? at this point now some of the other things that you get alongside this is It used to be called the quarterly inflation report It's now being renamed as a 2020 the monetary policy report. So this typically comes out then in February May August and November So not quite the calendar quarters, but four times a year This is the Bank of England giving you its forecasts So if you're an American and you're more familiar with the Federal Reserve This is our version in the UK of the summary of economic projections So other than just being eight times a year interest rate meeting and statement This is when we get generally more insight as to what the Bank of England's thinking is over what we call the two-year horizon So the economic future so that market participants Companies in reality can plan for the economic future about what the Bank of England know now about economic conditions and what their projections are for things like growth unemployment inflation that allows then Companies to have some degree of foresight over what type of actions they can take now Because they've got visibility of what the forward guidance or future might look like so here a Couple of charts. I thought quite interesting They basically ran a lot of illustrative models to graphically represent what they foresee as the Economic conditions over the course of the next two years, and I think this is really important not so much for the intraday environment but to understand perhaps a little more about You know everyone talks about the GDP Contraction that's going to be huge that we're going to see all around the world in the UK and the US included the unemployment rate we know is going to be much higher than what we saw in the financial crisis back in 2008-2009 and The rate of layoffs as we see in America non-farms tomorrow is going to be Historical in a sense the expectations are for a loss of 21 million jobs in just a single month The idea then is about well, how quickly do we recover we have seen fiscal Support from governments all around the world that absolutely dwarfs the response of what we had in the GFC and Rates now and unconventional monetary policies have also gone further than what they've ever done before So here then it's about you know this v-shape W-shape Nike swoosh shape How quickly do we recover it is quite key then for our predictions about the economic future? And so here I think graphically it's quite nice to see this So they said that GDP pick picks up relatively rapidly in the second half of this year in the scenario Although it takes sometimes to recover towards its previous past now. I must stress that these are What we would basically term as scenarios This would be based on current evidence, but obviously The nature of a virus means that things can change quite rapidly And so if there was a significant second wave meaning that there's a delayment in then the relaxation of the phased unwinding of lockdown well That's obviously going to have implications and how quickly or rapidly the second half of the year springs back into action The ultimate idea here though is that we do get back on track But we're not probably going to reach that point until we start getting into 21 2022 on to the trend line of what we would have been Exing out the entire pandemic in itself. So that's growth if you start looking at the other areas unemployment Well, as I said unemployment is going to be Higher than what we saw in the financial crisis the illustrative scenarios that are looking that this is quite a Quick pop but a very rapid recovery over the course of the next two years Comparative really to what we had in the global financial crisis Which was also quickly followed by a eurozone sovereign crisis in the early kind of 2010s And that saw then unemployment remain really at those levels for a good couple of years and then a graduated fall You know much more rapid movement here. We're looking for the return post the pandemic for an inflation perspective Obviously looking at quite significant hit in the short term However, the Bank of England obviously they have like most Western central banks a 2% inflation target And they're looking to get that back on track by basically the second half of 21 going into 2022 So anything like interest rates and things like that obviously not likely to see any changes on that front any time soon To probably the one that will in future perhaps is the quantitative easing program but again, that's going to be subject to how successful or not the Controlling the testing of the virus and The ability to get people back into work Okay, so that's that's pretty much the Bank of England but from a trading point of view You have seen that the pound has moved higher So in an intraday perspective What I think a lot of this is is that well for one The Bank of England has decided not to add any more immediate QE I don't think that was expected But again, there might have been some outside bets for that So a little bit of a bump up somewhat more of a relief if you like in the pound and then two when we've looked at these illustrative Charts on these major economic metrics. They're all very indicative of quite a Rapid recovery is what the Bank of England is for seeing at the moment and so Perhaps then warrants a bit of a pickup off these the fact that the pound was already decreasing fairly rapidly yesterday So overall, I don't know. I wouldn't read too much into it I you know on the balance of what I've seen thus far and generally from now I I like to talk to people read what other banks are saying to get a bit more of a Rounded view and what everyone's interpretation is of this But in the short term You know, can cable continue to track higher today? Well, yeah in the short term probably can and the level I'd probably look at is up at around I guess this This type of level where we've got the high that we had in yesterday's session and that low back on the 29th of April I think that's a pretty decent target any push above that point then would bring in These highs then coming to the force of may low and as you can see some previous points here where the market has responded So you got the 2396 and I'm looking at the sterling cable futures here Then the 24 handle 2407 just above but you know We're gonna get back up and start punching up to these types of levels up towards the 125 handle. I Don't think so on the back of that, but We shall see obviously we've got some US data jobless things like that coming out later on if that was to come out way worse than expected perhaps I could accelerate the cable upward movement on the back of Combination of some of the sterling movement more positive here and dollar weakness Would have to be a way out play out to get that type of movement. All right, final few things just want to go over Trump active again obviously talking on Wednesday He said he would be able to report about a week or two Whether China is fulfilling its obligations under phase one of the trade deal now if you if you can remember Seems like a lifetime ago, but it was at the beginning of the year that US and China actually struck that Famous phase one part of the deal and it was all looking quite positive before the the virus hit What did that deal phase one mean? Well, it was an agreement where China would increase its purchases of US goods from a 2017 baseline by an additional 200 billion dollars over a two-year period now We know basically the US have really ramped up their rhetoric against China And we've talked about this at length before about politically why Trump would want to go down that route Again reading most bank research The majority say the actual true risk of things like Nutaris and things like that are relatively low and this is more of a political play than anything But in terms of a milestone in time to look out for for potential then further flares in this confrontation I think that's going to be quite key. So Trump's put out there It's going to be basically in the next two weeks or so He's going to know a bit more details about whether or not they're fulfilling that criteria For an ECB as well there's big move this week Obviously in the downside in the euro on the back of the German constitutional court Kind of bringing up questions on the legitimacy of the ECB's bond buying program What are the ECB said? Well, they've actually come out in the FT last night and they were effectively talking about this idea that they're They're arguing that such a move and impinge the central banks independence And it would expose them to pressure from other national courts Of course Germany just one of several eurozone or many eurozone nations The last thing they want is getting into legal Contests with every single one of those under the similar thing. So obviously when you're dealing in law You know one specific case can set the precedence then for everyone else and you're opening up Pandora's box slightly. So Does this is this important is it really going to move things now? No, I think it's warrants an update though Given the way that it did move the market early in the week I think a lot of this type of news flow will come back to the forefront probably in about six seven weeks from now As we get closer to that What the German court had was three months the ECB to prove it's you know, it's kind of Why and the authority and ability that it has in order to make these bond purchases There was one more Trump actually article. I'm just going to go on my Twitter account I did tweet it last night because I saw it break on the FT Just before I went to bed last night And this was one of the other ones I guess to be aware of with Trump He's weighing up more aggressive economic measures against China White House and Capitol Hill are looking to match the anti-Beijing rhetoric with steps to curb supply chains and investment flows so again still keeping the foot Firmly down at the moment on the on the gas trying to put the pressure on China at this point in time with the general Virus numbers in the US obviously continuing to go north at the moment Okay, calendar-wise. What else have we got today? I've already had the Chinese data the Bank of England has already come out look out for those comments out of Andrew Bailey I'm just having a look. Yeah, 10 o'clock is when his contents of his briefings to reporters is going to be released So we'll get a little bit more detail around their decision-making process and then you've got the Afternoon the main thing that people obviously will look at is the initial jobless claims expected at 3 million range 1.5 to 9 million 9 million certainly would be the highest we've had so far Would be somewhat worrying that we're getting renewed pickups because generally we had that big pop-up So I think it was 6.6 million as being the peak and then it's gradually eased back down So we're kind of over the most highest volume week that we've had but that doesn't detract from the point that we're likely to get a 21 million print in non-farms for Last month and then obviously the month of May when we get into June is obviously going to be another particularly high number as well Other than that Speakers wise, yeah We've got Bailey Harker speaking much later in the evening as a voter on the FOMC talking on the Fed's response to COVID-19 So it could be quite interested but more for the US traders if you're tuning in It's around the closing bell on Wall Street and then for May earnings point of view Bristol Myers Squibb, Raytheon Not really too much in a way of major market cap names coming out of the US But still quite a lot of mid cap names and then quite a lot of supply coming out of the French and Spanish treasury as well today just to be aware of. All right, that is it I'm gonna wish you a good day Obviously any questions at all feel free to leave That your comments on the video Love to see the engagement on the videos now. I always try to respond again, even if it's a technical question whether it's to do with Amphi or Just general markets then just leave a comment. I'm absolutely happy to help But otherwise have a good day. Have a good weekend Not gonna do a briefing tomorrow, but I will be releasing a brand new video shot by my colleague Eddie Specifically looking at Warren Buffett and the move that he's made this week to exit some very large positions Particularly in the airline sector. So really good video. Watched it last night. I think you'll find it really interesting So I'm gonna release that later on today and then the aim will be that tomorrow Will and I gonna cover ourselves Just having a look at the the non-farm payoffs release and then hopefully we can record will trading that event And we'll share the video with you as well on Friday All right guys, enjoy your long weekend if you're in the UK if you're elsewhere take care stay safe, and I'll see you Next week. All right. Thanks very much