 New year new opportunities. What's up guys and first of all happy new year to everyone. I have got some great news for you guys. We are finally coming out of the bear market this year. Okay, okay. I know that might be a stretch for some of you but stay with me because in today's video we're talking about my Bitcoin and overall cryptocurrency outlook for 2023. And if you're like me and you're tired of your portfolio looking like it's been put by a truck, trust me, I feel you. Then you will want to stick around for this one. We'll be breaking down past historical trends. If there's any more potential bankruptcies left for 2023 and the macroeconomic events that we might see this year in the market. By the end of this video you'll have a much better idea of what to expect from the markets in 2023. And as a special new year's treat I've got a little something extra for you guys at the end of this video. So sit back, grab a cup of coffee or maybe a stronger beverage and let's get right into this video. What's up guys? I am Jay and welcome back to Bitcoin Daily. Remember this content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research before risking any of your own money. And as a disclaimer I am invested in Bitcoin since 2016. So if you guys are new here don't forget to smash that like button and subscribe to the channel. So 2022 ended up being the second worst year for Bitcoin in its short history. We ended the year down 64.24% the only time that we had a worse year than what we had in 2022 was of course in 2018 when we ended the year down 73.39%. So although it probably looked and felt like the worst year in crypto ever because of so much that was going on and because of the sentiment in the market and because it was so recently it actually wasn't the worst year that we've had. And if we compare it to previous bull markets to bear markets right all time highs to the bottom of the bear market assuming that the bottom of the Bitcoin price is in already which I do personally believe that it probably is in. You'll see that we dropped to the third worst bear market because the first actual bear market was the worst one for us when Bitcoin went down 86.9% then the 2018 bear market we dropped from its all-time high down to the bottom it was 84.12% and then currently in this bear market we've dropped from our all-time high to the current bottom which is about 15,479 that puts us down about 77.57%. So we're pretty much in line with the other two bear markets. Let's say that we did drop lower to let's say 84% just to kind of get an idea of where that would be that puts us around that 10 to 11,000 dollar mark and at let's say 86% that would again keep us around at 9 to 10,000 dollar mark. So again we're in line with all the other bear markets but we're actually not as bad as all the other bear markets but we're right there right and that's also why I do think that the bottom is probably in and if it isn't I don't see and I know a lot of people saying that Bitcoin's price could potentially go below 10,000 dollars I can't see that happening because we would have to have pretty much the worst bear market the worst pullback of all time in order to get there which would be a 86 to 87% pull down right and that would still put us between 9 to 10,000 dollars at that point and for that to happen we basically need more bankruptcies and you know things of that nature in order to tank the price so much further down and we'll come back to that we're going to be talking about bankruptcies but first let's clear the chart here and let's take a look just at the yearly chart right so each candle here represents 12 months and what I always like to do is look for patterns so we're not going to count this red candle here this was 2011 the market was still just getting started right we're not even gonna count we're not gonna count any of these three years here we're gonna start here in 2014 and what you're going to notice is that we have a ready year right a down year then we have one two three green candles and then boom another down year another red year then one two three green candles and last year 2022 another red year so if this same exact pattern that we've had for the last one two three four five six seven eight nine years if it goes on to 10 years of the same pattern then what this pattern is going to be showing us is that we're gonna have a green year and when I say green year I don't mean that bitcoin's going to explode like we've seen here right over a thousand percent over five thousand percent this year here it was pretty much just bitcoin consolidating right it's a consolidation period there so you'll see that it ended the year up 34 percent but you'll also notice that it had a wick to the bottom and at one point bitcoin was down 52 percent throughout that year right and then as as it continued the next year did even better 124 percent and then boom 2017 over a thousand over 1300 percent return in that year of course that was a raging bull market right and then we ran right into this next bear market in 2018 I'm sure a lot of people remember but then look at 2019 we were green 94 percent 2020 up 300 percent 2021 up 59 percent and then of course last year down 64 percent so this pattern here kind of points to a pretty boring um consolidation filled 2023 right this is what I call the year to basically load up your bags and then it's the next two years which bitcoin's price really begins to move and the crazy thing about this pattern and then if we move forward and look into this year and next year it falls in line with a lot of macroeconomic events not only does it fall in line with a macroeconomic event but it falls in line with the bitcoin halving you can see right now on the clock there's one year and 78 days left before the bitcoin halving the next one and this of course has always played a huge role in the price of bitcoin now we're going to talk more about the macroeconomic events and the bitcoin halving cycle and how this has affected this exact pattern that we're looking at here but first I want to take a few steps back I don't want to go full bullish mode yet right and I want to talk about bankruptcies so as you guys know last year it all basically started with terraform labs aka terra luna they had they created a cryptocurrency algorithmically pegged to the us dollar but in may it basically lost its peg from the us dollar and not only did a plummet luna but it plummeted the entire cryptocurrency industry and this of course set off a chain reaction where we saw lenders like voyage digital and celsius network fall and file for bankruptcy and we also saw hedge fund three arrows capital also fall then of course the most recent one is ftx where they basically lost billions of dollars of their customer funds because they were using it to do other stuff with it right and then that has caused other companies now the domino effects just continues on and it has affected companies like block fi which has had to file for bankruptcy and then now the question becomes okay well are all those bad actors all those companies is it over or are there any more big companies that could continue to act as a catalyst for the crypto market to fall further and that of course brings us to this current developing story here where genesis is owed 1.675 billion dollars and 900 million of those dollars basically belong to gemini and genesis is owned by if you don't know who genesis is by dcg digital currency group if you don't know who that is i'm sure you guys have heard of grayscale investments or gbtc this is all owned by the same company basically the same person right barry silver and basically dcg borrowed or owes 1.675 billion dollars to genesis which they also own right then we recently had an open letter from uh cameron winkelvoss who is who owns uh gemini i'm sure you guys are familiar with the winkelvoss twins the originators of facebook and they kind of had a twitter battle here where uh cameron wrote an open letter asking barry silbert basically to pay them their 900 million dollars barry silbert then kind of tweet it back and then uh they just kind of went back and forth right this all ended with genesis telling clients that it needs more time on financial woes before it can start repaying or letting customers and clients take out withdrawal of their funds so the issue is that this is how these all these other companies began right they paused all withdrawals for their clients and eventually files for bankruptcy i'm afraid that this could happen here again and if this did happen it's going to affect so many companies because if we look up digital currency group other than genesis it also has grayscale investments and hq investments i'm not sure what that one is but they have estimated around 50 billion dollars in assets under management so not only will this affect genesis and grayscale investments dcg right one of the biggest crypto companies that there is right now but it will also affect gemini and gemini is another huge crypto company that has around 30 billion dollars in assets under management as well so basically genesis owes gemini a billion dollars um and if there's a bankruptcy they're gonna lose those billion dollars which are customer funds this is the only way that i see bitcoin setting a new bottom if they were to default on their loans or they were to file for bankruptcy or anything like that that would be a major catalyst because that could also affect gemini and if they were to file for bankruptcy or anything like that yeah then we we would definitely be seeing a new bottom for crypto and potentially seeing bitcoin go below ten thousand dollars at that point because who knows what else that would affect so you can see why this is a huge storyline in 2023 and it is something that we most definitely have to keep an eye on so now let's dive into the 2023 macro economic events that we need to keep our eyes on there's basically four main things that we're watching this year war covid inflation and interest rates as we saw last year war is not good for any it's not good for the countries going to war it's not good for the people that live in those countries or in the surrounding countries it's not good for that country's economy and it's not good for the overall world economy either simply put war negatively affects the entire world the war in ukraine definitely impacted the overall world economy and sent prices way down for basically everything and there was just so much more going on which is part of the reason that we're that the world is basically in this recession currently right and this comes on the back of covid where we just had a global pandemic people were sick people died people were out of work people had no money so the governments were just printing more and more money which of course affected the world and the inflation right now i know many of us have probably forgotten that covid exists still but rumor has it that it's still currently waging in china right now and the thing is that the government in china has stopped releasing covid case numbers so we don't know how bad it is right now out there and then finally the last two things of course is inflation and this was directly impacted by the global pandemic governments began printing a bunch of money trying to stimulate the economy and of course inflation started to go up i know in the us we hit a peak of around nine percent nine point something but in other parts of the world it is way way worse and then um what the us is currently doing and what they were doing last year in 2022 to battle and fight against inflation was of course raising interest rates now there is some good news with inflation um it has been steadily and consistently going down over the last few months we've dropped from that nine point something down to around seven point one percent last month was there a reported we will be awaiting the report which is supposed to come out this month i believe on the 10 so by the time you guys see this video that report will probably be out already so it's actually coming out on the 12th so next thursday as you can see the previous report was at seven point one percent and the forecast for this next report is six point nine percent so they're expecting another point two percent drop off there so inflation directly affects interest rates and what the fed does the fed's goal is to get inflation rates down to two percent by the end of 2023 in order to do that they're continuing to raise interest rates but the good news is that last month they raised only a half percent instead of the point seven five percent that they did them the time before that so that is good news there is a slowdown in the rate there is a slowdown in the rate hikes but i do fully expect them to continue these rate hikes probably at least a few more times to start off this year that's basically what they've been saying but i'm also expecting throughout the year for them to eventually stop raising them and maybe towards the end of the year if inflation is getting close to its goal they can start decreasing the interest rates and that's going to fall in line with basically the next bull market right so let's just say that by the end of the year stopped altogether raising interest rates inflation is down to three getting close to two percent and they start talking about decreasing interest rates in the beginning of 2024 or maybe even as early as the end of 2023 now we will start to see the market start heading back up especially the riskier assets which is what cryptocurrency is considered then remember in 2024 we have the bitcoin halving event happening the date set right now is march 25th 2024 this date is going to be changing all the time it's not an exact date but let's just say march of 2024 now let's take a look of what bitcoin's price has done on the year of the bitcoin halving and the year after it and let's even take a look of the year before the bitcoin halving right so the first bitcoin halving event was in 2012 this was the first time ever in 2012 you can see we had a green year 189% but the next year so post halving is when we really saw bitcoin's price move then we had the bear market in 2014 15 and we had our next halving in 2016 now if you notice pre halving the year before the halving the price started to pick up a little bit the year of the halving the price went up 124% and again the year after the halving price shot up over 1300% so after the halving 1300% post halving again over 5400% year of the halving green year of the halving green and pre halving before the halving event happened it was green that year as well now fast forward to the next halving 2020 you can see 2020 over 300% the year after the halving up 59% pre halving also green of 94% so this is all starting to show a pattern right you can see historically that pre halving the year of the halving and post halving are usually the three green years that we have in a row then that year in the middle is always a red one and then again pre halving halving post halving red pre halving so what i'm thinking pre halving is gonna be like probably like these two years here where it's not going to be anything crazy a lot of consolidation will end up in the green then the year of the halving 2024 not only because of the bitcoin halving because of inflation going down decreasing interest rates that's all kind of telling us that 2024 and 2025 is going to be the next bull run for us so this year is just basically the price bottoming out then the next two years bull run then we're gonna have 2026 a red candle and this is of course if it sticks to the same similar pattern that we've been seeing these last 10 years so when trying to figure out what where i think bitcoin's price is gonna go by the end of this year trying to be conservative i would give a number of around between 28 to 30 thousand dollars probably and i would expect that to happen probably closer to the end of the year not anytime soon so it'd be maybe like october november december type of thing where we kind of got through 2025 thousand and got to 2030 and just kind of was there to start off 2024 not saying that it won't go higher bitcoin you can't predict bitcoin right but i'm trying to give with everything all the information that we have right now on the 6th of january 2023 that is my best conservative prediction right now i do think we have a green year of course this could all change with dcg if they were to go bankrupt with genesis if gem and i if other companies were to go bankrupt this could all change but as of right now the state of it right now that's kind of where i'm thinking um we could end up by the end of this year going into 2024 to then really see a rally up in 2024 and 2025 to new all-time highs hundred thousand dollars and possibly beyond that at that point so that means that 2023 is a year to accumulate load up your bags build up your long-term positions in projects that you really believe in using dollar cost averaging i've done a few videos on what i'm currently accumulating and i will be doing more of these videos um in this month because this does change and get updated depending on what happens every time something big happens right um all these things can change but i personally am consistently putting money into the market investing every single week on red days i know it could feel weird and unnatural to go against the grain with the current sentiment in the air and in the markets right now but i'm telling you guys this is a time to build your long-term wealth you buy when there's fear and blood in the market you don't buy when bitcoin is at all-time highs this is how i've built my portfolio over the years by buying the fear and selling the greed i hope you guys have enjoyed this video if you have make sure to drop a like drop a comment and don't forget to subscribe to the channel as i promised you guys in the beginning of video i had a special treat for you guys for this new year so i'm gonna be giving 25% off for lifetime in my discord group so all you gotta do is go right down here where it says join our VIP exclusive mentorship group click that link once you get to this page right on the bottom here where it says have a coupon make sure to hit that and you're gonna enter bitcoin 2023 and hit apply to get that discount and that will be for as long as you have this membership i will be running this promo throughout this first month in january of 2023 now why would you want to be in this discord group well i provide things like this outlook for 2023 i posted this to them over a week ago as you guys can see here i broke the entire thing down i also share the exact trades that i'm taking in the market as you guys can see here the first day of the new year we entered in ethereum long trade here at $1,200 we risked 1% on each of these entries here with my exact stop loss and exactly where to take profit and how much profit to take at each point fast forward two days later and we hit our first two areas to take profit you guys can see here this was the first this candle right here that's when we gave the trade signal and this is currently where we are right now easy win guys i also give you guys my personal time and attention mentorship i teach you guys how to trade the right way and if you guys have been checking out my trading bot videos here where i am testing i'm creating these scripts to be able to test all these different trading strategies if you guys like any of these trade strategies i will be giving them to you you will have access to them for free in my mentorship group now the last thing i want to tell you guys remember guys keep your crypto safe ftx has gone down block 5 has gone down voyager celsius all these companies that were supposedly very very trustworthy have gone down people have the loss of their crypto do not keep your crypto in centralized platforms do not let third parties have access to your crypto i did a video on exactly how to do this right here guys you guys can check this video out i'm going to throw it on the screen right now so just go ahead and click that to make sure that in 2023 none of you guys lose your crypto i'll see you guys on the next one as always peace and love