 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network I'm really beginning to like these Friday episodes where we go through everything we talk about some soccer We talked some baseball talking some NASCAR. We're running it back Once again this week started things off with Austin cash getting his read on EPL match week 32 Then I'll go through money lines and strikeouts for tonight in baseball And we'll finish things up by talking some win bets at NASCAR in Talladega This is covering the spread right here on me Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire Join you to start things off as mentioned by Austin Cass. You can find him on Twitter at Austin Cass He is a senior editor over at number fire calm Austin. Welcome back to the show. How you do it today? Doing really well. How are you doing Jim? I'm doing great ready to talk some more EPL for this weekend I think it's going to be Interesting because I've started a little bit more hooked with the the champions league draw me in a little bit there So you're slowly chipping away at my resistance, which is good Problem is it's a short slate this week for EPL because like with the UCL going there's a busy schedule So kind of an odd dynamic. How does it alter things for you in terms of like this? We're like teams have a lot of other stuff going on at this point in the schedule Yeah, it can be tricky and I think it's always Advantages to find some teams who maybe are out of those other competitions already and can solely focus on this one thing And we're going to talk about one of those teams today So I think that's an area where you can find maybe a little bit of an advantage. Good synergy. I love it Okay, we'll talk about that here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed to get these podcasts as they go Live each and every weekday back again next week more NFL draft talk We'll talk some more NBA NHL playoffs as well all right here in the same seat feed So search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating Let's dig in here to this weekend an EPL Austin. It's a four game plan on saturday I believe two on sunday. So fewer options available Let's start things off in the more traditional market starting off there. Where do you see value across match week 32? So I see some value on lester city specifically their money line, which is plus 145 lester's plan at home against wolves They're currently in 19th place So they're in immense danger of being relegated this season And but this match saturday is a start of a run of four straight variable variable matches for them So if they're going to survive, they really need to take advantage of this stretch Despite wolves being nine points ahead in the table wolves and lester are nearly identical and expect a goal differential this season per fb refs expect a goal model Lester's actually has a slight edge in expected goal differential over wolves Lester haven't won in 10 straight matches lost nine of those So I know it's not really fun to bet on a team that hasn't won in over a month, but The current form really couldn't be worse, but they just Uh beat Manchester city on expected goals last weekend, even though they didn't win the match They beat them on expected goals 2.3 to 1.6 at man city, which is a pretty impressive performance from lester And with uh wolves is priced at minus 9 000 to stay up for a little bit They were in danger of being relegated. So this match means significantly more to lester So basically we have two fairly even teams one of whom has way more to play for and is at home So that's the side i'm going to be on this weekend with lester Yeah, that money line is plus 145 for lester against wolves and the one thing that's tough here is that we're talking motivation for sure And it matters a lot in the epl because you don't want to get relegated But that means if you're betting on motivated teams trying to avoid relegation It means you're inherently betting on bad teams So how do you kind of like get over that in your mind? We're knowing that you're betting on a team that I mean 10 straight or nine straight matches is a long time How much does the motivation Matter for you to help push you over that edge mentally and like betting a team like that? Definitely that's a good point And and lester having a lot to play for it can actually work the other way if things can really snowball against them There's a lot more pressure on them if they get down early in this game like the crowd could turn against them and Things could really go south But to answer your question, I think lester's in 13th by expected goal differential they're actually not that bad of a team and then um You know just on paper Just talent-wise they're not a team that should be in this position. So it's a little easier to stomach for me They got eighth in the league last year. They have a similar team this year. So Really they would be one of the better teams to go down If they end up getting relegated that in recent memory for me So that makes it a little little easier to stomach betting on them Just because they're they're not as bad as most of the other teams at the bottom of the table Right, they're not as bad as other teams and also wolves are not like some banner team either They were in the relegation discussion earlier on so it's not as if it's a massive discrepancy in talents Okay, lester at home plus 145 in the money line there. What about the less traditional markets austin? What do you see across saturday and sunday in the epl? So I like, uh, liverpool's match on saturday. They're at home against nottingham forest and I like liverpool to go over two and a half goals um We've I think one of the themes of me coming on here is I've been pretty bullish on liverpool over the over the A few episodes and it's really paid off for us a couple times and yeah, they're starting to get healthier They just got uh, tiago and louis ds back in addition to geogo jota just came back a couple weeks ago And they're finally starting to look like the liverpool that everybody thought they would be before the season, especially in attack They scored six goals last time out against leads who's a team that's very comparable to nottingham forest that game was at leads and then um They had 3.6 expected goals against arsenal in their last home match. So liverpool is really playing well And they still have an outside shot at getting into the top four So they should have the pedal to the metal On saturday and I I think they there's a really good chance. They're just going to roll over Nottingham forest and with that I kind of like mohammed salah to score. I think he's Uh, maybe minus 130 last I saw any time goal scorer. So I like both of those bets Yeah, salah is minus 135 right now at fandals sportsbook for the anti-m goal scorer the uh over under goal market You mentioned over two and a half goals was minus 130. You mentioned they had like 3.6 expected goals in a match That is outrageously high. Correct. That just seems seems high typically anything over two Is is a really high number the best teams typically are around 2.0 expect goals per match Okay, so uh liverpool right now over two and a half goals minus 130 Solid a score anytime goal score is minus 135 Over at fandals sportsbook as well again both those bets in the liverpool versus nottingham forest match That is austin cas make sure you check him out on twitter at austin cas find his work Over at number fire dot com austin once again a pleasure to have you on here on the show for today Enjoy the soccer this weekend. We'll talk to you once again in the very near future Sounds good. Have a good weekend Thank you, austin. Appreciate it same to you again. Check out austin over on twitter at austin cas his betting guide for match week 32 is up on number fire as well So check that out if you want to read that over wherever uh at number fire dot com We're gonna talk about some mlb strikeout props and money lines for friday and just one second But first the nba playoffs are here and you can get into the action right from first tip with fandal right now All customers can get a no sweat same game parley every weekend. What do you bet the nba playoffs? 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He's like is he our is his e r a is high If you look at his skill interactive e r a it's very good. It's a good number But he's still letting up a 48 percent or 49 percent hard hit rates and a 44 percent fly ball rates Really rough numbers and you put those at yakey stadium even with no jon carlo stanton This yakey's team can really torch lefties taking standoff the roster the active roster has a 126 w rc Plus against lefties and a 196 iso since the beginning of last year so That's tough dominio edamon Looked good so far this year good underlying data There is some concern here given that uh that last time out at wearing 11 strikeouts There was some sticky stuff on his hand that he had to wash off Hopefully that doesn't come back because that could be a concern if he gets max scherzard here, but Hopefully that's not the case. I'm fine being above market on the yakey's here again I think that uh, they're playing good baseball you without stanton airmon has pitched well. I'm skeptical kiki kuchi I think that's enough to make us put us on the yakey's here at minus 134 The second game I like there is some weather concern not because of like rain Because of snow that is in minneapolis for the twins and nationals I like the twins money line at minus 220 here against the nationals that's 69 implied. I've got the twins between 76 and 77 percent I think that the reason why i'm higher on the twins here is their health has gotten better Max kepler's off the il joey gallo just came back here recently too So the offense getting better gallo at first base I'm not as big of a a defensive boost as he would be in the outfield, but still better to have Good competent defensive bodies available to them you with buyer buxton still being a dh Tyler malley is starting here for the twins He's throwing a slider this this year versus a cutter last year So a bit more sweep on that pitch and earlier turns on my pitch are solid 3.47 skill interactive yarn three starts He's looked good getting strikeouts facing a nationals team here. We don't want to fear too much versus a righty Trevor williams starting for the nationals stretching back out to being a starter and it's gone predictably I know it's a tough spot for him. So difficult to Be okay in relief and stretch out as a starter for a pretty poor team So I don't mind being high on the twins here with all these factors being aligned I think they make a lot of sense So there's always possibilities that this game doesn't play just because the weather is pretty gross in minneapolis But I'd assume they do I don't think there'll be snow. So I feel like the twins money line at minus 220 over at fandals sportsbook Third money line I like for today is the brewers at minus 162. They're facing off actually that one is lengthened They're now minus 172 versus the boston redsox. So the implied odds at minus 172 are 63.2 percent that is actually a lot closer to where I have them I have 64.9 percent for the brewers to win. So The edge is still there, but it's less than two percentage points I typically want about two to feel good about it's still 1.7. So it's not super far off I think what I would do is shop around for the brewers and see if you can still get Minus 160 minus 162 somewhere in that area I'd still be okay with it at minus 172 Because i'm skeptical at new pavetta starting here for the redsox A lot of issues with hard contact both last year But especially this year across three starts 57 hard hit rate allowed in a 50 fly ball rate Those are rough. His z r a is fine at 4.5. Oh, but When you dig beneath the surface check out the bad at ball data You see a lot of issues and when you combine that with the concerns around the redsox defense I think there is a good value back here freddy peralta starting for the brewers So I agree with where the market has gone on this game with the brewers shortening to minus 172 I think that that is back to a for it to move. So I'd shop around See where it is if it gets shorter than minus 172 I'd probably back off personally because it wouldn't be enough wiggle room for me Between where my model has it and where the market has it but With the beam minus 172 right now. I think that is still fair Shop around find the best number you can get on the walkie But if it is minus 172 or Or better, I would be okay with it if it's shorter than that then I would probably back off on that regard So the money lines for today brewers my minus 172 twins minus 220 and the Yankees at minus 134 Two strikeout props I am on for today The first one is the one that I feel better about that is in atlanta with the astras taking on the braze I like brice elder over he was minus 130 to go over four and a half earlier on He is still there. So minus 130 is a number on brice elder to go over four and a half strikeouts And I feel like this is A slow reaction to a different kind of elder we've seen here recently He was in the rotation for the braves earlier on last year got sent back down came up for a one start sample on august 14th And in that start Had a different approach throw in a four seam fastball versus a sinker It looked okay And then when he came back up in september did the exact same thing So if we combine that august 14th start with his starts in september With what he has done that done this year we even eight start sample on elder with this new approach And in those eight starts he's had five plus strikeouts in all but one game and he had six plus in all but two games So again, he needs just five plus to get this number I have elder projected for 6.08 strikeouts tonight. He's facing houston houston Again, I've talked about how I think that they will get better as the year goes along I think that they've got enough guys here to be viable But Opening the year their active roster a 23.6 strikeout rate against righties I have them projected below that personally. So even if I assume they get better with the Offensively from what they've done to open this year They're still they're still valuing the over elder. So minus 130. Is he over for elder at four and a half strikeouts? I feel very good about that. I like that one a lot I've been on elder a couple times so far this year and I'm more than happy to be on him once again for today The other strikeout prop is actually in an alternate market Uh, it's an over for anthony de sclafani de sclafani is facing the mets very low strikeout teams. So I don't typically find myself Going this direction super super often the baseline number for de sclafani over three and a half is minus 146 I'd rather go to the alternate market. You can get him to get five plus strikeouts at plus 164 At fan dual sportsbook and that to me is my preferred bet So I want de sclafani over or to get five plus strikeouts at plus 164 in the alternate market A lot of this is because of pitch count de sclafani when 105 pitches in his most recent start Which means he is really stretched out. I don't have him projected for 105 But I have a projected for 100 and that's a pretty good number For a guy whose baseline strikeout prop is three and a half De sclafani is definitely benefited from plus matchups so far and the mets are not that but I think that what you've seen so far is de sclafani any more in his change up He's gotten good numbers a 23 strikeout rate across his first three starts this year The widths are not there, which means maybe there is an downward momentum again It's a tougher match up here, but he's at home He's in good conditions for pitching as it always is in san francisco 63 degrees there The mets good offense, but you know, I think that's accounted for in this number So de sclafani to get five plus strikeouts plus 164 The way I want to play that in an elder at minus 130 to go over four and a half is the other strikeout prop so I bet the cross baseball for tonight feel pretty good about those and Think that we should be on a good path for major league baseball for tonight Do you want to finish up though by talking about some nascar the cup series and the XINITY series are in Talladega for this weekend and if I look at the top 10 odds over at vandal I have literally not a single driver showing value zero out of 38 showing value for me right now So as you know, if you listen to the podcast a lot, I tend to live there. I do like top 10 bets quite a bit I will not be there for this weekend unless things lengthen post qualifying on saturday There are some outrides though where I am showing value and i'm okay placing those both for the cup series and For the XINITY series let's start things off in the cup series where the first one for me is ryan blaney He's 11 to 1 to win over at vandal sportsbook, which means he is the number two favorite Behind joey legano So you're betting a guy with relatively short odds at a super speedway and super speedways are pretty chaotic But talladega is on the lesser end of that spectrum versus Daytona and atlanta in large part because it is a wider Bigger track, which means if there is a wreck you have more room to avoid it at talladega Then you do in either Daytona or atlanta the practical application This is i have a lower projected crash rate at talladega than elsewhere Which allows me to Get a little bit higher odds and favorites and I typically would so when I run my model Blaney is actually the favorite by my numbers 9.3 odds to win versus 8.3 implied I think that that's a big enough edge for me to feel good about and take blaney in the situation Blaney is a two-time talladega winner I won back-to-back races in 2019 and 2020 finished runner-up here last year and overall blaney's performance in the next gen era On super speedways has been very good. Now. He's had some crashes Daytona in the summer last year he crashed, but So did everybody else so still he has not finished worse than 17th in any of the next gen pack races That to me says that he is able to navigate this this track type navigate this new car Deal with its complexities and stuff like that and still get good finishes and avoid massive massive issues Blaney did finish runner-up in talladega last year behind chase elliott So his implied odds 8.3 percent. I have a 9.3 percent I don't blame you if you don't want to bet that because again, it is pretty short odds But he's short for a reason my numbers show value in him and I know that talladega can be chaotic so The model knows too and it's still showing value in blaney. So ryan blaney adds 11 to 1 the first bet for me I would also understand if you don't want the second bet because it is on a team that has been brutal so far this year that is legacy motor club and eric jones Is 28 to 1 to win a faddle now. I would say he opened at 36 at faddle. I liked him there I would shop around see if you can get a 30 out there somewhere because he shortened to 30 initially and then shortened again to 28 I still show value at 28 But just ensure there aren't any lingering 30s 32s out there that you can snipe made different book But at 28 to 1 jones's odds are uh, 3.5 percent implied. I've got a 4.8 percent now The issues this year are concerning for him at super speedways because detona. He had a wreck there Wasn't running crazy hot before the wreck either and then in atlanta He ran in the back pretty much all day pretty poor showing there. I think he had a 22nd place average running position. So Poor showing there for jones that attracts I for he was very good last year But in atlanta, he was running 17th on the last lap and worked his way up to eighth in one lap I had a top 10 dead on there. So I felt very good about that But I think that what the show is the skill is still there and if you dig back to 2021 That was a year where legacy was then called richard petty motorsports They were trash and the equipment was terrible But jones still had a pretty good run at talladega in the fall there despite the fact the cars were so slow That gives me some decent confidence in that he can run well here even with poor equipment And we saw those skills in atlanta with that last lap dash So I've got him at 4.8 percent. I think that's a smidge high personally, but the implied odd 3.5 percent I think those are too low So I will take jones at 28 to 1 again shop around so you can get a 30 out there still but I think that's good value. I also do like his podium odds Plus 850 at fanville sportsbook jones nearly won this race last year He had a top seven average running position in both talladega races. So he's very good at this track specifically It's eric jones 28 to 1 or to podium at plus 850 both those great out is being good. That's by my numbers Now in the Xfinity series, I'm not seeing a lot of value over at fanville Looking at the favorites austin hill is plus 360. I do have him pretty high 16.2 percent to win by my numbers, but the implied odds there 21.7 percent. So I'm very high on him did bet him for atlanta and he won there but A little bit too short for me personally When i'm looking for outright odds at fanville the one guy who grades that as being a pretty decent value is 150 to 1 That is josh belicky I would mention he's 200 to 1 elsewhere. So as always the Forever caveat shop around find the best number I would take the 200 to 1 But even at 150 josh belicky is a bit of value for me He actually is above 1 percent by my model's number So even at 150 at 0.7 percent implied. He is still a value now he's driving for a dgm racing and His teammates there is josh williams josh williams at fandall sportsbook is 80 to 1 and he's 100 to 1 over at caesars So his teammate is shorter But josh belicky I think kind of has some talent on super speedways belicky drove for the same team at datona In the spring race last year so driving for dgm at datona last year And in that race there were a lot of cup drivers in the field because there always are for the first race of datona But despite that belicky Had a 17th place average driving position. He led 10 laps in that race and finished not So in this same equipment he ran really well ran up front, which I think is really impressive Last year in atlanta. He was driving for spire in the cup series So there's rafting track Bad equipment as well and in that race belicky had a 22nd place average running position He finished 16th in that race and that's pretty good now you go to this race uh at talladega and belicky will face zero cup drivers because they are not allowed in this race because it is a it is a dash for cash race so We've seen some surprise winners in the in the extended series in these setups brandon brown won at talladega in 2020 or 2021 jeremy clements won at datona last year We have seen When the number of cup drivers in the field is reduced that is the case this weekend belicky I think it's talent on this track type. There are no cup drivers in this race So belicky at 150 a fandal or 200 to 1 at caesars I think both those are very good bets at caesars. You can also bet. Uh, he is 40 to 1 to podium 14 to 1 if to finish inside the top five I did take both those personally as well So potentially overexposed to josh belicky But I think that's the right way to play things. So josh belicky the one guy i'm on for xuny this week What could possibly go wrong? That is all that we have here for today and this week on covering the spread big Thank you once again to austin cast find him on twitter at austin cast and find his work over at number fire dot com If you have any questions for me. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fandal podcast network at fandal podcast Do not forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and also check us out over On the fandal youtube page. Good luck to all of you with your bets this weekend Good luck to you with your bets tonight and major league baseball Have fun and with all the sports we'll talk to you once again monday to talk more Whether it be mlb mba playoffs or whatever may be on our mind nfl draft as well This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network