 youtube stream and good morning everybody welcome to friday the 13th of october 2023 it's the end of the week and we've got our second webinar so just doing a mic test i think it sounds okay from my end i did some monitor testing earlier so i think it should be fine and youtube is up and running hey marius hope you're going well uh quickly do those um do that disclaimer there's actually um if i quickly flip before we do the disclaimer onto the capture you can see that iceberg that i um that i posted in the room so if i zoom back out you can see where they put it where they hinted here um at 0730 that they wanted more and you can see the structures that were in place so that you know if you'd found something to get in it's possible you know they've tagged it almost once and it looks like they may tag it again if we have no more no more big volatility events in other words if we get orderly flow so it's just one of those things let us do the disclaimer now all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations trading futures equities and digital currencies involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results so i think we can probably just leave this one as it is you know if it gets up there you know what we normally do at this point the very first thing we do is have a quick zoom out vertically of the levels which if you've got book map i'm sure you could have done yourself um you got a random number level there at 4350 and up above it's not clear where those levels are yet so yeah um and we've got no major market making i'm not actually sure you were seeing it sorry so i apologize i had the slideshow on top of it so i had not hidden the slideshow what i was saying was that if we zoomed out vertically yeah you've got this round number liquidity at 4350 with 300 bids there um but there's nothing really that obvious elsewhere in es and if we flick across to enqueue you've really got those algor bands which are dominating things but underneath the the algor bands you've got this resting by iceberg down at 15255 and a round number bit of liquidity we can ignore and yeah there and you've got some brand number liquidity up above there's nothing until we really really zoom out of any great interest and that then becomes down at 15212 which has been there since that low was in place so maybe if we go back even further look at the 15200 and i think we can ignore that so there's nothing really earth shattering there's you know screaming out loud as something that is likely to be hit with a very high level of probability anyway i hope you're all having a good week if anybody has any questions comments requests anything like that please feel free to pop them into the into the room either in discord or in youtube even though we are going to do the pre-market prep i will try and just have that up and about and running there we go i like to have all the the order book numbers i all the individual 25 cent type of prices quarter point prices in there so you can see them all and you can actually see the true order book levels anyway we'll leave that one be and let's go and do our usual slideshow preparation okay i'm just yeah still you do using the new format so what we're doing right now is the prep context for today and the context is there is some import prices at 830 nothing major nine o'clock you've got the fed harker speaking i'm just checking this is yep that's coming up okay in youtube and the most important news of the day is not during our hour it's the consumer sentiment at 10 am so it really should not affect us too much okay let's keep going on the daily you can see that downtrend line that i drew in is you know still intact and we're not actually anywhere near it we've got that 50 day moving average a bit closer to it nq is a little bit closer but so far we are holding and what has been surprising is the bullish activity or weak or most of the week anyway despite the the war footing around the world and that is apparently due to the softening of interest rate stance by the fed and the chinese stimulus as i said the other day apparently but all we care about is what the market is doing and whether we have any trades there that we that will follow our trading plan in contrast to the other day wednesday es has spent its entire global accession in the bottom half of yesterday's rth range so that is a complete contrast and the same with nq right you know that's one of the reasons why you know if you flick between these that it's sometimes worth having this yesterday mid it's especially the case when you've got an extended range in rth because that that mid can become a little bit more important again i don't believe in any of that finnet fibonacci stuff i'm just saying that's a 50 percent retracement that's all that represents okay a quick look at yesterday yesterday in the market and you can see apple had a good day but nobody else really did and in the pre-market so far it's been pretty bearish across the big names the amazons the meta the nvidia and the tesla and when i say pre-market we're really talking about um for am eastern onwards um right on to the value so this is the value that i drew um for es i think it's es yes it looks like es um before the start of the eth sessions i'm trying to take the the broadest view of where value was in the afternoon or the last value formation in rth and take into context what has happened over the previous two three four five days that's how i'm drawing it it's really to show what is the most important value area for the time being so all the most important distribution uh and the other one i think this yeah it's quite small so i'm struggling to read it on on the um on the preview image that i've got pretty certain that's nq and yeah that's where i where i drew it it was easier to delineate because you've you've got that nice cutoff point on yesterday afternoon's value on the rth session so much easier but it's also quite interesting to see that they extended all the way down towards yesterday's low but that we didn't quite take it out okay um right okay let's have a quick look at the capture i'll come back to those last two slides in the second but it's just watching this action coming in towards the m8 30 just to see what's happened and one of the things i do like doing is zooming out a lot so again i do apologize for anybody if i do constantly do this when i'm doing the live order flow analysis it's it's because i like to see more of the book and when i say more of the book it's really the vertical side of the book just to see where the pressure is coming from nothing's really changed on these charts by the way i have um the only thing i did do for this purpose and i'll explain why in a bit is that i reduced the volume threshold for es down to 15 and the nq one i think i decreased it down to three there is a reason why because we're going to go and look through some specific action around the london open i thought this was a good opportunity today because there is nothing major happening um hopefully in our well if there is anything major we will we will talk about it live okay i'm just checking to see if there's any comments there's a small echo when i'm speaking that's interesting thanks stan um i've actually got a noise suppression i've got the nvidia noise suppression on today i'll speak a little bit more quietly maybe it's because i'm speaking so loudly um yeah i'm testing and trying to improve the audio quality of the stream you know from session upon session um and uh yeah i do apologize if there is any real echo so i think it will probably cut down if i do not speak too loudly um okay i'm just trying to get back to the discord room yep no marius is typing as well so he's probably going to comment on echo as well um yeah so in es that resting liquidities there the thing is you know because we cannot predict the future we do not want to be greedy so you know if we had found for example a good entrance here which is the you know test of this low and we were trading towards it or we'd been very aggressive and trade towards it earlier you know you want to take your scales where you can you know i can't really draw the scales on here because this isn't this is not where i draw my scales um for my r multiples um i have traded directly off this chart in in book map in the past and i did that for quite some time but what i do these days is i do a mixture of manual entry and semi algorithmic entry so i i've got um i've got i've got both entries based on location and one just gets me in based on some of the stuff happening in the book so it just speeds up how i get in and that's why if anybody is asking why do i not trade directly off this chart it's just because i have this all set up in another program seara um okay yeah thanks i'll move the microphone away a little bit so that should improve things um yeah that's a bit of a shame because i tested it and tested it and tested it today this is um with some obs filters um yeah but um it is what it is maybe if i turn down the volume a fraction on the input in obs that will improve things as well so i do apologize um yeah so um you're talking about this so i speak what i've said quite a few times now is that these often provide really good targets and they're much better targets if they've got confluence with something else here we're almost setting up for a triple top so you've got one top let's just scroll back see if there's any others uh scroll all the way back that's not really a top um but you've got one two three in that zone so you've got almost a triple top you know certainly if we get back up here i would say that there would be a very high likelihood we're going to attack it and go through it but at the moment they're just looking for fuel so when they're looking for fuel you're looking for a structural entry and you're looking at this delta tail down here to give you an indication that they might have the fuel and when we're talking about a fuel to go up we're talking about consuming sellers so yeah the sellers the red in the delta tails here and the delta column is what i can call them the delta tails and tails really refers to the bottom half of this um you know sort of towards the the swing point we're looking for a red tail uh not necessarily a particular shape so i don't really care if it's um let's draw this i don't really care if that tail in the delta column was like that it's not a good color is it let's get rid of that i don't really care if the delta tail was like that or whether it was like yeah it does not really matter for this purpose because this is not auction theory per se this is delta and the auction theory really applies to the volume profile the cvp the chart volume profile column and marius please tell me if that's getting worse or better when i speak softly and speak away from the microphone yeah it is quite frustrating i must admit trying to get this audio improving and then not getting improving even though i recorded it several times today um so yeah that's what i'm talking about with the the fuel okay so while we watch that let us have a look at an image i'll just get it up this one okay in fact we can have a look at both this and the market at the same time or we can see part of the market uh so if you refer back to wednesday's webinar where i spent quite a bit of time uh on the idea of modeling how you might perform in your actual trading against uh an expectancy calculator which is really this row here the expectancy calculator which is the amount of dollars you make on an average trade over a large statistical sample set what i i didn't really finish it was sort of you know where i might model what i'm trying to do myself and i'm not talking about actual results i'm talking about aims right well i like to do with this and i think i i did stress this during the session was that i like to model this at a really really low win rate um because i'm expecting in that i i can expect or i do expect i'm expecting in myself to perform better than this 50 win rate um but i don't want my trading business to be dependent on a really high win rate so that if i do model this at 50 percent and i still have a good expectancy you know a profit factor which is positive you know there's two ways of stating profit factor by the way it's either a percentage or a decimal number you know if you use zero that would be like 0.4 rather than 40 percent but that is that is something in terms of the actual numbers that you know i would be very happy to aim for you know and then you've got to really take your actual results from from from your trading engine and you might have to do a little bit of massaging to get averages down so that they so that you can see you know what averages in towards the minus one minus 0.5 because you might have trays that are minus 0.3 r minus 0.25 r etc so you have to round them up by averaging to actually get them to fit something that is a model that can be looked at at a glance and be useful um and um if i don't yes i've got got this number here of five for minus 0.5 and this is a specific reason for that i mean one of the reasons that we look at bookmap is that um we want to use the order flow in bookmap to help us with our risk control so if i get rid of this we've always got this back and i can go maybe i'll just sorry i'll go back to the next slide in fact i won't because i've got it over here i've got the next slide on a tab over here um so you want to use these order flow tools and you know it depends what you use you know i use bookmap and i also use short term candles and that's the purpose of this chart here right so you know this one is it's a 15 second in nq at the london open and the london open is over here but what is the point of this really the point of this and how this relates to the modeling of your expectancy is that a lot of what we've been talking about has been the category of supply demand known as the spring up thrust breakout failure swing failure pattern whatever you want to call it um but um yeah um and one of the ways to see it is that you know if you've got a a swing failure pattern you know for example let's draw this because it's easier to draw um right so you've got a swing failure pattern here right and you're looking to show this this one would have worked right uh uh and that and that's great but they don't always work that's the whole point let me just get that so if you've got a swing failure pattern and then the action instead of this down action you get um if i just draw the last swing high across there and maybe we'll switch colors so you get this kind of action you get balancing action at or just beyond the previous swing point that you're you're saying that you wanted a rejection for so that you could short that um where are you getting that information from you're getting that from order flow whether it's this short term um short term price action on a candle chart or more importantly on on book map you know we have to get rid of that let me just get rid of that so you know um you know when you have this this uh you've got pretty good example here let's have a look at an example of where it would have gone wrong yeah here okay so if we draw with our numbers i might need to get my pen out we'll have a look um so you might call that a swing one and this one a swing two right and you know you're drawing a cross from this swing point i'm approximating because it's not a very good swing point but it's just the first thing i could find on this book map chart and what are we looking at here and we need to just drag this one across right we're looking at the type of action again i don't think it's quite though we really have to drag this one across um yeah we're looking at the delta tails here and we're looking at this balancing right so what i was saying that is if you have um if this was your swing point and this is your swing failure right and then you've got this zippy zippy zippy zippy action what you're looking at is this delta column and especially the delta column in the zippy area here right um who is potentially getting trapped you know uh if it's just small cellars and you can't see any great big red or magenta dots and you can see a delta red red segment here in that zippy area that is not a good sign and that's the kind of information that you know you're going to get from book map you're also going to get obviously the liquidity map um you're going to get rejection in terms of vertical lines like that one's a vertical line and immediate rejection up that kind of information and you're also going to look at the micro structure so if we get rid of all of this you know you're looking let's get the cursor back you're looking at what's happening as it goes down you know so you you have just draw this again so you you have a point here you have another point and this is all micro micro structure and you see you know how are they going getting underneath that so if we drew this one across they're not doing very well and then they're balancing above that so they tried to go down they couldn't go down they're balancing above that and in in q especially this is es but in nq especially in in in eth when they do that and they struggle so hard on the micro structure and sometimes you can see it in the book pressure as well you've all probably got different ways of looking at the book pressure whether it's the lighting up of the book or whether it's some form of meter that you've got and they're struggling they're applying lots and lots of pressure but that's all they're achieving that's a great big warning sign um you know to to say that you're going to be wrong soon and that's when you use that to say that instead of taking a full r on this occasion you might be better taking a 0.5 r or even a break even scratch if you can you know it's that type of information that we really need it to get across just doing a time check because we've got the 830 news i'm just moving that microphone across to see if it helps with the echo as well again i apologize for the sound quality right okay um so we're coming up at 822 we've got eight minutes left and let's look across at this iceberg so they're lighting up all of this zone and you've got this there and you've got something which is clearly a double top but not really anything more but as i said if we get back up to around about the 79 i'd say the probability becomes very high that we're going to go through that 81 and you know this is to this point where if you do some vertical scrolling you can see how they're actually pressuring the book or not yeah this is really quite slow action compared to what we occasionally see at this time of the day um the benefit of really really slow action is that you can control your risk so much better and also you're much less likely to be slipped in your stops and your entries than if we had the highly volatile nfp type action thanks paul for the comment maybe because of the room yeah i don't know again um all i can do is so i'm i'm somewhat disappointed because i did probably over 40 tests on little bits of obs recording and checking the sound earlier so um if people say it's an echo yeah both in youtube and also in in discord that's a disappointment again i will do some more testing over the weekend when i get a chance um yeah so so far that action is positive now if we had ankyu to help us on on the timing for this so the ankyu had a beautiful spring in fact it's like a double spring you've got a swing low there and then you've got another little zone there and it takes out both of them probably by a tick so if we actually go down there yeah it takes them out by a tick and that is an absolute beauty of a swing failure pattern type entry in ankyu and you've even got the struggling for me a little bit you've even got this nice heavy bank of more algo-based liquidity underneath so yeah the entry there in ankyu was better something that i've said as well is that with um with really slow days with low volatility the action in ankyu may be easier to trade you may have more opportunities you may get may get more range and therefore scales in your trades in ankyu than in es but you know here we've we've got something that it was likely to come up to so it's really a question of you know how do you get in so you have this move down it can't get down again so um and you've got this liquidity kind of barrier here it's partly algo-band based so you know you you could you could um at this point take an entry because you know your risk is quite tightly defined so if we have a look yeah if you'd have got in there you could have got in at the definite the 474.50 range and you've got a target of seven points so even if you are only looking for a two-hour trader and two-hour trade is wonderful if you ask me um and you know you can always go a lot further than you think after it hits the two-hour um the the trade was possible you know you yes he'd give you many opportunities to get in and finally we're going to get that tag so you know we're expecting that one to actually get filled up for 8125 I suppose it is yeah 48125 if I zoom all the way out yeah and what they've done here just above it is clear out some of the liquidity so it's providing a suggestion again that we would get up there we do not know what will happen when we do it's filling the iceberg a little bit so previously there was a volume of one and now there's 132 so they're certainly 156 so they're certainly taking people on board you've got that delta tail column and you've got the volume columns so you can see how it's actually going and if they fill it a lot what would not surprise us is if you have a little pullback straight away and Q maybe um yeah I suppose we've got NQ over here and Q is actually a little bit more interesting in terms of going straight through it and Q looks strong you can see the action there really really quite strong if you look at the microstructure from this being the trigger onwards they cannot get down so every little swing low is highest they're exploring upwards and right now they're balancing but not rejecting from here and you've got these two liquidity levels up above I'm not saying they're resting liquidity but you've got that one up at at 15295 that's of interest yeah this type of action is also useful for when you're in your trade and you're doing well and you've achieved one scale maybe you've achieved a couple of scales and you're wondering you know um you know how are you going to manage it so part of the purpose of this order flow stuff is to help you manage that you know it's to say have you had something that's clearly wrong yeah something that's different now now you have right and you've got a little trap in NQ up there but until that point we didn't so we finally made a slightly lower swing point so it's interesting now that we've done that what we do is this a liquidity dip or are we now going to explore in this direction so that's what we're watching here if you see a quick spike down like that it will as often be a liquidity dip in NQ as a reversal so you just have to be careful and one of the reasons why I like looking at large volume trades and I'm looking across in ES sorry in NQ to see what the large volume was is that often oftentimes the endpoint of these big moves will be large volume trades okay so we had so we had really quite a good iceberg here so we had two icebergs essentially 127 and 215 even though they're the same iceberg so they've got nearly they've got 350 or so on the book and at the top of this we have 38 or 39 contracts so it's not quite a rollover but it's not a huge number so again you're not going to get perfect kind of swings in markets all the time so you can't expect large swings to always end in rollovers or to be a poor high with a massive squeeze at the the tail end of it okay we are now getting up to that news I'm just turning on my stream for financial juice yeah the US import prices 0.1 percent so below the 0.5 percent expected but the market did not have any reaction in the sense that the market continued to go up and it continued to explore towards liquidity so I was saying that you know if you've got your two or your two and a half hour in ES and you'd held on on that one you know you may well have got three hour already yeah and one of the beauties about this you know more structured or more orderly trading is as I said that control of risk and and the way of getting to your scales without really really horrible price action along the way now you're going to get some smoother type action in eth than you are typically in rth so you've got there's still this big bank of liquidity and at this time of the day it's it's still more magnetic than repelling so that they can see that this band is there but the closer we get to a big big bank of liquidity the more that is likely to be a wall that will get us at least a temporary reversal we have a look at the just having a look where the nq's settlement so in every single one of these streams we always talk about where is settlement so ES has just gone back up and tagged settlement so even though I wasn't talking about it there was clear confluence between the zone where settlement occurred and that iceberg and so that was yet another reason and I was so you know we were looking for confluence I was saying it was a double top and the other confluence was the fact that it was a retracement back up to settlement so I was not paying enough attention to where settlement was when I was looking for that confluence just waiting for the CMJs just typing in something I'm hoping it's not about how bad the sound is in terms of echo I hope that is the case all right so question is not about audio quality good is there a particular time when you find the markets a balance between moving enough to provide opportunity to trade okay um all right let's dig out something over here on this screen okay so you've got this right you've got two things for eth that are on my stats box page here you've got the relative yeah you've got the relative volume the relative volume is something that updates every minute for me so I don't tend to keep a graph visible at all times because it takes up too much space but I know because I look at this fairly frequently that you know when we started off in Asia that was about the 50% mark and that there was a considerable jump up in London so I pay attention to that number so if that number gets you know from 50 up to 80 or if it's say well over 100 all day long I know that you're going to get plenty of volatility that doesn't answer your question about whether there's a balance I think most of us are volatility traders so before we look for balance we look for volatility because otherwise we're just trading nothing and there's nothing really worse than trading nothing if you can excuse the pun because basically all you're doing is paying your broker because the market's not going to go anywhere you're not really going to get to those multiple r-scales and you'll end up taking entries and exits based on meaningless action so that there is that one thing relative volume and then you know I'm looking across at these ranges I mean if you look at today NQ 32 in Asia against 53 I know that's Asia I know you asked about London but I'm just saying it's a guide to you know you can look at your chart and say oh that looks dull and then you look across at the stats and you say ah well maybe you know I haven't seen the big player come into the market yet so until I see them the stats worry me so I'm unlikely to get big ranges you know you accept that that can change at any minute because you do not know when the big player is going to come in and in the Asian session even again I'll get to London in a second they might appear at an unusual time um so you know you've got your Chinese open you know from 915 to 900 futures and sorry I'll turn that off um you've got the Chinese open from 915 to 930 p.m eastern um but that doesn't necessarily mean I mean everything so you might get some great volatile action around then but then you might also get a huge player that comes in an hour later at 10 30 or 11 and they totally change the nature of that session and all of a sudden you get great ranges and you get good structured pricing so I'm just saying that this is useful but not totally useful in London it's the same principles that you apply that you're interested in the statistics especially this one and how it changes going into 2 a.m and 3 a 3 a.m eastern to see whether people are really coming on board or not um but one of the things that I found is you watch these half hours uh in in in in Europe so you you watch the it's like 40 minutes the first 40 minutes um the German open you're likely to get some action from around about 150 a.m eastern but that might die out by about five past two but on really really good days it won't die out you'll have action all the way from 150 a.m through till the the US open 930 a.m and and part of the way you see that is the ranges uh and the volume and also by having um your charts of the correlated instruments that are driving the london session um further forward so you know you've got your you've got your bond you've got your decks you've you've got the footsie you've got the euro stocks up and you can see when they're having crazy sessions uh or really decent range sessions you're going to get good sessions um or good ranges um for es in in that time frame um so I'm saying uh yes I'm sorry to say cmj that you can't predict you cannot predict all you can do is turn up right you can turn up and you can expect you know you can humbly expect volatility around about the london open um and except when it is not there as well as when it is there but you cannot force the market to give you what you want and whether that is in terms of great trades that benefit you or in terms of great price action that benefits your analysis regardless of whether you win or lose um and it's the rule you know it's there is something extremely frustrating about that in in Europe as well um in the sense that you cannot predict when these big players can come in because you can't sit there for hour upon hour upon hour upon hour you know I've tried and I don't think anybody can um you I think there are certainly some people in rth that can sit there the whole day um but you will often find it's a frustrating experience because just when you cannot make it and you're out doing whatever you have to do the market will suddenly pick up and you'll miss all that action or you can do um say to yourself that you followed your trading plan you followed your processors and those trades on that structure did not occur when you were sitting there so you did everything that was right that's all you can do you're you're writing something else um yeah exactly no no if you're if you if you want to sleep I don't know if you're based in the US or not but if you if you're looking for the most predictable times um of unpredictable again I use inverted quotes uh US times it is the Japan open and the China open yes the eastern so it is literally you know um if they've had a very good run in a direction whichever direction that is up or down um into the Japan open at at 8 p.m eastern your time um it is likely that there will be a good reversal you know as in a good tradeable swing in the other direction within the next 30 minutes you know uh and sometimes it's right bang just before 8 8 p.m you know you know it could be really really early and really really sweet and it gives you something that is as much as you would have got in rth other times you know you can sit there saying where is it where is it where is it and then all of a sudden it comes along at something like 8 29 um in other words you can't predict it you can run the stats yourself you can see that that is a very high likelihood of such a reversal but you cannot predict when it is going to occur within that time block and then the other thing as well is you're going to get a lot more volatility in that 9 15 to 9 30 p.m you know when when that real pre-open for china i call it a pre-open but it's really open um and you can get some good scalps there you know you can get some good swings but you can definitely get some good scalps um yeah but i mean there's this session as well c mj you've got this session you've got these huge economic releases at 8 30 that you know we often have in our session and and outside of that you have good orderly trades in this 8 o'clock till say 9 15 a.m eastern you know the pre-market you've got all those stocks open you've got spx options trading you've got apples trading etc so you you you've got the real market is semi open and yet it's not crazy unless you've got the non-farm payrolls and that is a you know it's one of my favorite times to trade i mean because quite often i will not um you know have been able to sit there for the time period that i wanted to sit there during the london session so um you know because this is now my evening you know getting quite late into the evening it's a bit quieter for me so um you know if i was not in fact i did take a trade um i did trade towards that i spoke when i've you know um by the time i'd originally posted it i got one and a bit scales um so yeah i i like to trade in this session as well um it's just yeah i mean once you've traded part of of the overnight session and you know what the asian session looks like you know what the european early session looks like and you know what this pre-market session looks like you get used to it you know it's like a set of three dancers um you know as long as you know which of those dances you're in you know you're doing the tango yeah you're not doing the rumba right now yeah as long as you know it's that kind of dance and you also know that you don't do the the the typical tango during a non-farm payrolls release you know at that point you step aside and and you you either play a completely different playbook or you don't play at all so so far yeah they've just been doing this is partly what they did the other day which is provide more and more liquidity up and they're just grinding up what happened the other day when they did this even though it was one of those choppy up and down days was they used a lot of this pre-market buy grind up to then sell it you know to sell and take it down quite a way so it'll be interesting to see if that's what they're doing so you know you often find this where they're just filling in up and up what we tend to do is then look vertically and look at this column to see you know are they getting lots and lots and lots of fuel and then I will look across and see you know how how big are those trades that I can see inside Sierra I'm not seeing anything huge I think the biggest trade I can see since we started at eight o'clock it's about 250 so that's an individual reconstructed trade it's not going to be 100 accurate but it's a guide to how big the trades are and there's nothing huge so you know one of the things that you put in your um in your notebook is that you know this could be just absorbing a lot of smaller buyers for a push down later or they're doing something in preparation for the 10 a.m news release we might switch across to NQ okay yeah so yeah it's one of those things that's worth pointing out as well when you see you know you've been going up and then they place this big liquidity marker as an advertisement in NQ and you've got this one here at about 15298 you don't just chase it you stick to your plan you stick to structures you know um you know this might well have been another one of those one tick up thrusts breakout failures may have been or maybe in a double top it's hard to tell just looking at it like that but you stick to those structures because you know you're something you think oh it's going to definitely get down to there so you trade in here that's the worst thing you can do because you're then the fodder for them to squeeze up and up and and if there's one thing that NQ does better than any other instrument it's squeeze seller it squeezes sellers so they are so good at that it's not funny maybe people are just bearishly inclined and haven't noticed how well NQ can squeeze sellers um so yeah typical things for NQ to do squeeze those sellers and then you know when everybody thinks it can only keep going up that's when it absolutely tumbles and that is the nature of the beast and that one applies in eth as much as anything um you know the most common common scenario in NQ is that it will be bullish into the london open um you know it will have chopped around or gone down in asia and they'll have nice upswing to either take out settlement or to take out yesterday's high or to the top of the value zone that had formed from the previous rth session yeah so they advertised two zones and you know maybe you played for the top one and that's the one that would have paid and if you played for the bottom one too late you'd have gotten to a lot of trouble and part of this session today was to look at how you know how do you how do you know um yeah so one of the things that you're going to see in book map is this which is um can't i don't know if i can capture it well enough when i see some diagonal 45 degree type action which is normally mid-sized buyers in NQ it's normally intention to go higher so that something to be wary that you know you are short there you're trying to get there that's a warning sign that you're wrong worst thing you can do is let your stop run you know sure that may pay off occasionally but it may also break your account on a few occasions and your boat and your broker and your bank manager will not forgive you so you know you could be playing for this one down here all of a sudden you're back in the green that is a you know that that's a different kind of business to be in you know there's a lot of risk involved you know if you if you'd taken you know a tight entry you know down here you should have been stopped out um otherwise you know uh i would say that you've got very very different risk modeling from the type which i'd be prepared to use so the fact that they've advertised this liquidity and that one is likely to get hit does not make it necessarily very easy to get in you still got to be really really patient wait for your structures and then you might get a wonderful three or four r trade because it will go straight into that liquidity okay we've got some iceberg type action here in e s and again the beauties of having this thing side by side um let's see if we can just do that and just drag it down the beauty of having this side by side is that you know when you have these dips in nq and es is only having a little tiddly dip it's a big hint to you that that the dip in nq is likely to be a liquidity dip and that it will continue going in the up direction so that's one of those things to use as well yeah it's one of those things i always have both my book map and my other kind of information side by side or above and below it's the same difference just let me look at nq i think the nq action would have been far better to trade now if you're going to go micro micro here and that is possible at this time of the day and you're using this as a liquidity wall and you you've got a zone so you've got if we draw this as a rectangle so you've got a little micro zone there you know it's it's not a setup that i talk about um yeah it's just an idea for people that you've got a wall there so you're looking at now you're looking at a stop around about there and you're looking to get in in the top half of this little little thing so you're really looking to get in about here and you're aiming all the way down there or close to down there you know that is is a way of trading slightly duller sessions in in thinner instruments like nq because when they break this balance structure they tend to move quite far and that applies more to thin instruments than it does to thick again i will not be talking about that much but i just thought on occasions like this where it's a bit dull um yeah and the thing is if you've taken that one there right and you've got one scale two scale maybe three scales you're not greedy you know you're managing your trade because you understand that they also advertise liquidity up above and you're also aware that es is trading up towards the sell icebergs targets which is now disappeared um but it was right there a second ago so you you're bearing in mind the context and you're also looking across at some of the other instruments so if we've got ym and rty up and running and you know you're trading a little short in nq you've got to bear in mind what they're doing so this might be you know a little bit risky so that's when you've got to tightly control your trades and you know let's have a look at where we are on the value side as well try and speak as softly as i can because i'm worried about that echo and i am speaking very close to the microphone so we've got this value that i drew earlier and i can see on this that you've got some you've got a big liquidity up there and you've obviously got some es options or ram number up there and that if we can get out of this zone then we're back into let's draw that we're back into this value so it's quite clear we're we're almost there if we can get back trading up there then this becomes in play going into the rth open yeah so if if we were much earlier in rth and we'd had a really really good trade up and i think there is an example if i actually do split this one out right because i drew this one earlier based on where that liquid is well where that value had such a thin little volume node there and so if you trade up there and you're not quite in that previous value zone you know there might well be good shorts on this occasion there was okay um yeah that's an interesting one Marius yeah what i actually did because i reset this up in obs is the obs output is going into discord so that may be the issue it's with a little driver called cable output or something like that i will ditch that and i will rectify it before wednesday um but the point is that you know as we reach the top of this liquidity you're looking at your price action in book map and your short term candles etc to see if we're going to get mean reversion type action i you're going to then rotate back down towards the middle of that value zone and then down to the other side uh yeah the first time it does that that's the opportunity that you're looking for if it keeps coming back you're not as willing to take such a trade but yeah that's one of the reasons it's actually a really good demonstration of why we look at value from the previous day um so yeah so that's something again maybe we'll do some visual strategy session at some point in the next few webinars where we do a flow chart of this trade here so let's just draw it in it's this trade here is this mean reversion trade here going back towards settlement initially uh and then back towards this main volume node from rth and then down towards the end of value so you know the words you have one two three main targets in that trade and that's a trade where you want to be in for a considerable period of time and that's the type of opportunity you're looking for for when you want to pyramid into trades it's not something that i i'm going to speak about overly in in these webinars it does mean that i don't do it and that i don't look to add if i possibly can but it's that scenario from the higher time frame or the value perspective that you're looking to say well you know there is a possibility because this is eth that all we're going to do in this session because it's dull is traverse value and traverse value means go from one side to the other so if i can somehow get in and get in again you know i can maximize the trade and then i do not need to trade at all during rth so that that is something yeah i you know it might well be worth doing one of those flow charts to set up that strategy and just describe how you think through that process to create that but i've just done some of that by talking through it there i'll just get rid of that one yeah so looking at this you know you're looking at this tell you're saying basically it's nearly all buyers um on this big drive up and we're getting towards the overnight highs in in q and e s f out e s now is at the overnight high and q's not too far off in q terms we're only about 14 15 points off but yes we are right at the high of the session so you know that trade that we talked about going into this webinar which was tagging this iceberg here you know if you'd managed to get your tour and managed to stay in there there's a possibility you'd be about six r up by now if you're in that trade and that is realistic based on the numbers we are looking at and the structures for the setups being the supply and demand tests the demand tests that were below that were it's being a bit slow on me you know um being the these kind of tests to get back up to test that you know this sell iceberg as a target was you know very very clear i know it only had one in there but since it was that confluence with settlement since we had a double top that could have been taken out you know there were a few confluence factors in there and because just as important we had accepted that we could easily be wrong but we were willing to take a risk because of the r multiples and the way we had modeled our expectancy calculator telling us this type of r multiples risk was one worth taking because it would get into that category on that spreadsheet um where is that spreadsheet um i could pull it up but probably let's not bother because we're coming up towards the end of the session but you know you you're falling into that category that bumps up your business model so it's one of those risks that you want to take sometimes what are you doing you're taking you're taking a trade and why are you taking it you're taking it to chase money you're chasing two or three ticks you're all in r terms you're chasing 0.3 of an r or 0.5 of an r and you and you're fretting over it you're worrying over it whereas you know and sometimes you've got this one for that oh i don't know if it's going to go up but then you think hold on a second the the main target here is at least two r you know the iceberg um you know if i've got my main target not just my initial target my initial target should you know at least be one r if you've got nothing in between you can you know you can say it's one r because you believe in scales if that's what you believe in um but you know you're looking at also at the potential that it is going to traverse value and take out that overnight high so you know it could easily have got you to the sixth maybe even the seven r if it keeps going up so yeah it's just one of those things how would you have stayed in um uh you know you know you know you once you get past something like three r you're not going to manage a trade as closely you know you're going to expect this up and down nasty little you know try and take you out and you're going to you're going to trail a little bit more gently because you've already made what you wanted to make out of this trade and anything else is a real bonus so but that's an art to itself it's not something i think i could i could ever really go into too much detail in these webinars but you know but taking those trades where the the main target is at least two r or three r that is what we really really want to do because that gets our expectancy calculator boosted up and gets us a really good business plan okay we're coming up to um we're coming up to nine o'clock um yeah i think it's pretty slightly to keep keep going up we've had this little stop run just there but we've got this liquidity and more liquidity um you know suggesting that they're going to just try and take it a little bit higher but we shall see i cannot predict the future i apologize again for the audio quality i did really really try today before the session i think i put in at least an hour's worth of setting up those filters um it's just a bit of a disappointment that they made the sound worse than better because i was hoping it would have been really really clean anyway i hope you all have a lovely weekend um and um good trading tonight if you are trading in the us um session that's that's tonight my time but morning your time thank you again i will end