 I'm Amis the Steve Rhodes as we do each and every Monday at 20 past the hour and don't forget folks Steve has an outstanding show here every trading day one to two Eastern standard time also as a great newsletter the mastering Probability now it's very easy to get Steve's newsletter come over to our website at TFNN You're gonna go into newsletters You're gonna see it right on the right hand side You just hit that subscribe button and you get mastering probability for one month for a hundred and forty nine dollars You get it for six months for 695, which is the savings of 199 dollars at 22% and you get it for a year for 1195 Which is a savings of $593 a 33% Steve Rhodes. What's going on? Well, happy sweet tooth day. Yeah, I know Now I know I don't one of the things that you and I have in common is our our appreciation and love for dark chocolate Oh, yeah, right. Yeah, so now do you have like a favorite, you know dark chocolate bar or something that you go? You know, it is we have we have William Dean right here. So, you know, he's a chocolatier the real deal Really? So, yeah, so like I went up there for the you know for Tommy and Landon and Ali for the thanks. Yeah, not Thanksgiving. Yeah, Halloween. Yeah. Yeah, I love that place So okay, so so my place And I just love dark chocolate good dark chocolate and I think you guys have one in St. Pete It's called kill wins. Oh, oh, I love that place. That's that's decadent. Yeah, yeah, right? Yeah, so their ice cream is amazing. It is it listen, man I have left the office thief and gone down and got a hot fudge Sunday with a little ice cream Because you can't get that too many other places now man. I just want vanilla ice cream and real hot fudge with marshmallow on it, man Okay. Well, hey the next time you're down there check out their dark chocolate non perils Oh, I don't know what it is that they do to that chocolate, but it's it's amazing. Yeah, you know So so that that's our that's our sweet, too So happy Halloween to all the yes bowls and bears that are out there And and I suppose that most folks are asking the question, you know Was last Friday's explosive move higher a trick or a treat? I love you, man So we got to try to figure that out and this chart here I thought we would do is take a look at some of the seasonal patterns out here So this chart represents the average price movement of the S&P 500 During the mid-term election years and for the S&P we've got 72 years worth of data now That's for you know that that basically equates to about Little less than 20 specific instances the red line the red vertical line So it's over 72 years, but it's it's for you know, it's four years apart Yes for each midterm So if we take a look at the red line represents where we're at and that would seem to indicate that That last Friday's action is just another confirmation of a market that should continue to move higher and Rally into your and in fact we hear a lot of people on television Talking about this seasonal impact and and you and I've talked about the how the market typically makes a low in the mid-October Time frame and then moves higher on through that So I understand that typical seasonal pattern the cool thing here with these folks from season X We've got these it's very easy to take a look at any instrument for the most part and understand what the seasonality is So this is the S&P 500 for the mid-term election years However, this is the chart for the S&P 500 that represents the years after a mid-term election So the mid-term election is next Tuesday. Yeah, we want to know what takes place after next day Yes, and so when we take a look at that and I just use those specific years Well, this suggests that we see a sideways to consolidating move Into the mid or and well towards the end of towards the end of November out there So if we look at lastly if I take look at a bear market years for the S&P 500 So really three three areas we're taking a look at one What's a typical mid-term seasonal pattern look like to what's it look like after that and then three which may be more important What does it look like when we are in bear market years out there? So Tom, you'll see here and those folks that maybe grab the screens the checkmarks that we have on here, okay? Identify the actual years that are being used so people can try to build their own now What this tells us this tells us that the market should move higher into the end of this week Which kind of lines up so it's pretty out when I pulled this chart up I was like wow, that's pretty cool That's pretty interesting because this all lines up with with that nice move on Friday We should see some we should see some window dressing. We should see the end of month you know movement into a Move higher The money being put to work and that should end by the end of this month And then the market moves lower pretty precipice precipitously into the end of end of November time frame so that's for the S&P 500 Here's the dows bear market during the last hundred and twenty five years and again all the all the checkmarks Represent the years that are being tested so we go back as early as 1901 and what this shows us here again The red line is where we're at Tom Yeah shows us that we should rally through the end of the week and then move lower now This shows us in the case of the Dow moving lower into the end of the year out there The NDX 100 if we take a look at bear market years because we're definitely in a bear market out here So if we take a look at the bear market years over the last 37, which is only six data points So the S&P is maybe a little bit more useful the Dow more useful because of all the data that we have But even still in the NDX 100 this suggests a rally into the end of the week And then basically move lower into the end of the year If we also take a look at last Friday's rally as it pertains to the Dow specifically this chart here shows Diagonal and horizontal trading range boundary lines So folks the green lines out here these are really courtesy of bud ralphs who develop those horizontal trading range or what he referred to as primary trading ranges and And those green lines is pretty amazing how price will typically stop at one at one area if it can clear one area We'll either move up or down to the next level But what we also have those are the vertical Horizontal trading range as an example here at 34,152 There have been ten instances of either opens or closes very near that price point So that's what the numbers to the left of the of the actual price points show us here But what I also have is a rising price channel and a descending price channel and interestingly enough and I don't know how this works I just know that it works. Yes price on Friday ran all the way up to the top of that descending price channel Isn't that wild man? Yeah, I know it's like how did how do you know how does that right exactly? But but it does and so I've got a little dash blue line up there as well Tom And so price could exceed that or at least punch up to that level if it exceeds that area It says we get up to 34 152 But right now all this is suggesting that really what last Friday was was more of a trick than a treat or a very short term Treat out here and here's the real kicker in the last Friday's move was definitely explosive But I've taken a look at the bear market of 2000 the bear market of 2007 And then what I call the bull market from 09 to 18 and what this shows us these blue boxes Yes, they represent 2% moves or more the next one is 3% moves or more and the next one after that We have one day rates of change of 4% or more what you'll see is that the is that in bear markets? We hit the 2% moves or more are predominant out there Yes, you know 7 it was about over 10% Oh, yeah during bull markets It's where you get the fewest number of large moves out there And if we take a look last Friday during the 2022 session so far 208 sessions This is seen 21 trading days with moves greater than 2% It's all signatures of bear market rallies out there So I do believe that the answer to the question was this is more of a trick than it is a treat You know, it's amazing about that thou chart you brought up there too 2018 a December of 2018 I think the S&P went down like 350 400 because I remember sitting here doing the program going at the Christmas Eve saying wow, man I am very Christmas, man Listen folks get over to our website at TFNM hit mastering probability you are off to the races Steve You have a great one safe one. We look forward to show tomorrow. Thank you