 Okay, Traders, welcome to this week's live analysis session with me, Patrick Munnally. If you can hear me and you can see the screen, if you type a Y in the chat box, that would be great. Good stuff. Okay, let's get going here. Okay, so before we jump into today's content, as always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer understanding that trading any financial instrument carries an inherent risk, and we could potentially lose more capital than we necessarily have on deposit. And more importantly, for today's session, any opinions expressed by me today are solely mine. They are not representative or indicative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. So for those of you joining us for the first time today, I'll just give you a brief introduction as to my background, I'm going to say my name is Patrick Munnally. After I graduated from King's College London, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. After a couple of years of learning the ropes, I left with some colleagues and went on to co-found and successfully exit a consulting startup post-emerger in 2004. And then moved on to explore my passion for markets, with some capital to play with and some time in my hands, I started day trading or more appropriately day gambling, the S&P 500. After some early beginners luck, I racked up some quite solid and then some quite significant gains. However, as is often the case, that beginner's luck ran out. And as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions very quickly, giving back all the gains and then ultimately taking a six-figure hit on my personal capital. To say this was a gut-wrenching and sobering experiences and understatements, at this point I really had to stand back and figure out if it was really feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for about 18 months or two years. It was a period during which I upped not just my technical game in terms of researching and developing a strategy that importantly suited my personality, I extensively back and forward tested and developed a rigorous risk management approach to underpin the strategy. But most importantly during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably the most important development was the watershed shift really from being a highly goal-orientated and focused on financial gains to becoming a process-orientated individual. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, often times in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you make that shift and you become process-orientated and you have a professional trading mindset, understanding the true nature of trading insofar as that it really is a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investments and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned the outcome of individual trades or even strings of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008, since 2013, the performance figures you can see on the screen at the moment. I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, again delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Also since 2010, I've personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reach consistent returns from the markets. I've also consulted to numerous brokers and trading education brands contributing written webinar and live presentation content on a range of topics from market analysis to trading psychology to strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also the resident market expert at Tickmill providing daily market analysis and a daily setup that I'm tracking in the markets. I'm currently registered through the blog to receive those updates via email to get a flavor for my style and approach to the markets. My other passion project really is as head of trading and trader education for fxcareerswap.com. We offer development and funding to retail trading talent and fxcareerswap. We don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge, we work on mindset development through our structured program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. For those who are interested, you can reach out to me through LinkedIn or contact me via the website there fxcareerswap.com and I'm happy to give you more information with respect to that program. That gives you a flavor of where it is I'm coming from. What I want to do now is jump into some charts, but not the technical charts that we're going to look at in a minute. This is some sentiments and flow information that I track. We're going to start where we ended last week, which is with Bitcoin. Not an instrument that I actively trade, but we looked at this idea last week with respect to historical volatility and being drained out of the market. The past seven or eight times that's occurred has preceded some quite significant moves in the market. If we jump to the Bitcoin chart here now, we were looking last week at this descending trend line and we actually had this one as long as we were looking at here and we got the breakout just really after we finished the session last week. Some of that breakout was actually on the news that came out that Square, the financial payments business that is run by the founder of Twitter, has actually put a $50 million investment into Bitcoin and that helped pop Bitcoin this time last week and we've since traded higher. And whilst we hold now above this ascending trend line support, I think we, like I said last week, we've got a crack at the projected ascending trend line resistance, which is starting to tick up a bit now and we could be heading up towards $14,000 potentially. So that's one to keep an eye on and you can see there how that information, that flow information or volatility information feeds into the market movements there and that said, let's look at some foreign exchange flow data. This is from Credit Agricole that just enhanced their FX positioning and flow tracker data, which should deliver some pretty interesting signals. They've back tested this strategy over the past eight years and annualized delivered a 15% return and I'll share these signals with you on a weekly basis. Obviously, by the time you see these on the Thursday, they'll be a little bit stale because these signals are issued on Monday. I'll be showing them with the guys on the trading team at FX Careers, what though, but anyway, what we're looking at here is the flow data and you can see that last week, the euro was close to three standard deviations away from the mean in terms of long positioning in the market. We've seen a bit of a pullback this week, but we're still pretty stretched and so that suggests that we could see some corrected downsides in the euro and we'll look at some charts in a minute that would underpin that. We also see the Kiwi and the Aussie pretty stretched and the Swissie, less so obviously the dollar and to the downside. So what we're basically seeing here is if you take it in its rawest form, the euro sec, the Swedish Krona here would give an interesting short position as euro longs are stretching the upside and the biggest short positioning is in the Swedish Krona at the moment. So in its rawest sense, that will be the signal, but you can see here in terms of if you think about FX majors and the dollar, the dollar longs paired significantly and so the stretch played in terms of the FX majors is looking at a signal on the short side in the euro dollar and that's underpinned further. This is the JP Morgan flow data and we're seeing a bit of a tick up here now. We were very stretched on the downside in terms of US dollar shorts and we're seeing a bit of a pullback there. So we'll start to see now or we'll look now as we go into the charts how that might impact our technical views. So let's check in with the fractals. This is the fractal going back to 2017 that we've been tracking. There's been working as a decent market map for current price action. And we've put in this low or we're trying to hold the low here and tick higher in terms of the dollar. What we're actually looking for now is a dollar high to occur into the US elections. Now, that's kind of premised on the moment that we're currently looking at the betting in terms of the US elections that Biden looks the favorite at the moment or shoe in almost at this stage to get in. And if he does, we think that that will have implications for the dollar potentially weakened the dollar. And so we're looking for this November 3rd into that election high. If we can hold this current low, you can see how we're tracking almost to the day here. October 12th low and we have an October 16th low. So there are there about some terms of the fractal overlay. So we'll see now if this dollar can push higher. And so that obviously has implications for the euro, which we would look to trade lower. And we can see we're kind of in the ballpark there with the euro looking for looking for some weakness now to play out. And I'll show you on the execution charts how I'm set up for that. But that's what we're looking at with the euro cable. Obviously very, very choppy environments in terms of sterling at the moment. Headline driven and you can see that we're popping lower again now after yesterday's whipsaw. All this is based obviously on source comments coming out with respect to Brexit and the extension of negotiations. Yesterday morning we were at lows in the market on any cable cross or cable itself. We're trading down maybe a hundred bits or more. And we have one headline come out and within a second the Algos took it back up through the highs and we're now selling off again. So like I said last week what I expect is a messy, a messy low to occur in cable. And we probably see that into into the elections now. So we could see cable drift back down into the lows here, maybe a little bit higher just off the lows before we recover into a potential US election low. But the water is kind of muddied with cable a little bit obviously because we're always at the whim of the next Brexit headline. So I prefer to play it through the euro at this stage. The other one I'm playing at the moment is the Aussie highlighted the potential for a correction. A similar story again, almost to the tick here, October the 16th was the high in 2017 coming off the highs. And what do we have here? October the 12th was our high. So you know with this 2017 model is really tracking quite nicely at the moment and again, as with all these things, I'm not just trading the model, I'm looking at specific setups. But where you have this historical or seasonal implications for these pairs, it's certainly worth paying attention to and you can use it as a guide. So let's see how that plays out. Last but not least, let's check in with the S&P 500. And interesting, I looked at this on a line chart basis and went back to all the way back to 2009. You can see what we've done here is we took out this ascending trend line in that last high. We've since come back down through to retest it from below here and we're struggling to get back above it. We'll take a look a little bit closer at the S&P in a minute on the execution charts. But you can see the potential pattern here, this broadening pattern is in play at the moment. And we'll see what that looks like now in terms of setups and opportunities. So let's start as always with the dollar. The charts I've highlighted here with the AMBA tags are the ones I'm going to look at. If you have a chart that you'd like me to take a look at that I don't cover, I'm happy to do that at the end. Equally, if you have any questions, you can file those into the chat box at the end. I'll let you know once we're done with the review of these charts. So this is the dollar index broad basket. And what we're looking at now is for this current load to hold. I'm for us to get up into into November, the beginning of November here to test this resistance zone at the 95.86 versus this swing low. We have an equality objective as well at 95.93. So it's all nicely poised here for that test. We do need to clear this trend line, though. We've had three tests. We've held three like like the guys I work with know that when you get that fourth test of trend line, that's the trend line tends to give way on the fourth test. But more certainly the third test we always look for a whole. So we'll see if the dollar can get through here. If it can clear the trend line, then we look for a retest of the price cycle. Highest man 473 on route then to an ideal test of the 96 area heading into the into the elections. Equal way to dollar index. Let's remove these and bring in this. So in terms of the equal way to dollar index, we've got a similar story here. What we're looking for is that current load to hold and for this equidistant swing to play out. Take us a little bit higher here. Let's just zoom out a couple of layers. So we're back into that resistance area just ahead of 123. And that's versus this 111. 120 holding, sorry. 119 not 111, 119. And if that holds, then we're looking for 122.88 into the US election as the target there. Now this is the equal way to dollar index. So this is the dollar index that incorporates the Aussie, and it has an equal weight versus the Euro, Aussie, yen and sterling. So if this is ticking up, what that should mean is that we're seeing a weight in those in the in the counterpart. So let's let's take a look at this. First with the Euro. So the Euro has obviously been trending higher. We're looking to take out some trend line support here on the Euro on a closing basis today. If we do, then what I'm looking for is a test down to this 115 area. And if we bring in the equality objective versus the current pattern here. So I'd actually suggest slightly low, almost retesting this prior high, the 114.15. So if we can get through this trend line and closing basis, certainly look for a retested lows. And the next marker is going to be the 115. And through there, we look for the equality objective for setting up then for that, that leg higher into that November lows. So that would complete a bigger corrective pattern. So what we look for is something like this. Let's see here. And then from there, we look for longs to reload. And then we have at least a 122 on the upside would be the initial objective. So that's the type of pattern I'd be looking to play out in the Euro. So the dollar basket signal is a short Euro, it's short cable. So let's have a look at that. So cable trading in this interim channel here. We can take out support now at yesterday's low, 12850. Then we look for cable to test down into the channel support. 12850 on, sorry, 125 would be the downside of the objective here. Let's just take a look at the symmetry swing objective. Sorry, the equality objective. Quality objective even lower, we could back down trading 123 there versus this initial decline. And if this is going to be the corrective high, we'd be able to see that. But certainly it means I'm looking a little weak now for cable. We weren't able to recapture the upside in terms of the trend line resistance that was broken. We've almost tested it from below and rolled over here. But again, all about the closes. These are daily time frames. And the confirmation only comes at the close of the candle. So that's cable. Let's take a look at the Aussie. This is the trade. I mean, at the moment, short the Aussie through the break of this ascending trend line support. We had the RBA governor out overnight suggesting that the economic crisis in Australia equal to that of the Great Depression. And certainly there are now implications that race adjustments are imminent in Australia. Employment data wasn't too hot either. So the initial target for this move now is going to be the 69 handle, which is the equality objective versus the last swing. Could go deeper than that. And it could test down into the 6830, which are these prior loads over here. So the first objective certainly will be 6930-ish versus the current move. So we're getting confirmation there. We've got the Euro, Sterling, and the Aussie. So let's see what the yen is doing. So the yen is kind of, I mentioned this last week, the yen is kind of trapped with US yields at the moment. So we're not seeing too much of a reaction here in the yen. But whilst we hold this 105 handle, and I still think we have potential to test this descending trend line resistance in this triangle, almost triangle within triangles here in terms of the yen, but certainly we could see that 106-78. So almost the yen isn't confirming the broader cell signal that we've got in terms of the dollar index. But like I say, kind of trapped by the yield story in the US. So let's take a look at Swissy. So Swissy, whilst we can hold this swing low here at the 9077 level, we can look for the Swissy to trade higher to the equality objective and this descending trend line resistance at 9350-9370 area before we potentially make the next leg to the downside in terms of the Swissy. The Looney, obviously with the Aussie weakening, we can look now for the Looney to strengthen and look for a test up into this 3526. That's versus this 131 low. So again, look for a strong close today in terms of the Looney and then we could play pullbacks into the London session tomorrow to get in on the long side and reduce your risk reward there. Euro yen, another trade that I've been in. And we're just coming down into the projected descending trend line support now. We took out the channel and we rolled over and I took some profits on this. But what I'm looking for now is if we can take out this 12290 area, then I'll be back in on the short side looking for the equality objective here, which should see us down into 121. We could go deeper if we play versus the swing high here. Could be looking at 12050. So between 12050 and 121, once we take out this 12290, that's the downside objective currently in the Euro yen. Sterling Swiss, this is a box trade or potentially a box setup. There are two targets here. If we break the box support at 11750, then we have an equality objective versus this structure, which would take us down to 11330. If we take the box to the top side looking less likely at the moment, if we did, then we'd have an equal objective at 12126. So watch for the box to break. And then you can get in on intraday time frames and look for a retest of the box support to act as resistance. And then you've got ample downsides to run if this thing is going to roll over as projected. So that's one to keep an eye on, probably heading into next week now or tomorrow. Sterling, we talked about. Sterling yen, I got whips all out of this yesterday. And lo and behold, it rolls over. So again, if this Sterling yen now takes out the channel support here yesterday's low, let's say 13550, we take that out, then there is a big target on the downside here, 12830. So again, you can go on to the intraday charts and look for a pullback to this support area at 13550 as resistance to play for the bigger targets on the downside in terms of Sterling yen. Sterling CAD, nothing for me to do there. Sterling Kiwi, I also had this trade running, took some more profits on this. Not really a clear set up for me at the moment there, those two should be blank. Sterling Aussie, trying to break to the top side here. This one has been tricky. Looks like we could potentially today even get another failure below the trend line. So again, not in the immediate action. I've covered the Aussie, the Aussie Kiwi, another one in at the moment. We took out the sending trend line support. So that gives us this channel to play for now. Certainly we pay attention to 7393, probably a little bit sticky there. We've got a wheat DS3, price swing lows. But once we consolidate and ultimately take that out, and we'll be looking for the descending projected descending trend line support, 7270. And then the equality objective versus this swing would have us down at 72 level on the downside. So those are the downside targets for that trade and I'm currently running. Aussie Kiwi, it's taken out a sending trend line support. So whilst we hold below the median point of this channel now, then I think the Aussie Kiwi can move lower, certainly to test down into the 106 area. The projected descending trend line support is the logical target there. Let's take a look at the Kiwi. So looking at the Kiwi for this test, into the potential reversal zone, which gives us this head and shoulder scenario. We just came shy of it yesterday and obviously we've rolled over hard today. So watching for a breach now of the ascending trend line support to set up or move to the downside. In terms of the technical target there, we'll measure the heads to the neck. So once we, if we can break through So if we take out the support here at 6489 and there's a 6189 downside target. So what I'd be looking for would be this type of scenario. So we move down into the neck, always a crowded area on that initial test. What I'd like to see there is we get a middle pull back into retest the ascending trend line support then as resistance. And that would be the area that I'd be looking to get in on the short side and get trying to get into that move there. So that's what I'm looking at with Kiwi. Kiwi yen, similar to the Aussie yen we've taken out the sports area. It wasn't a signal for me as such there but certainly it started to look weak and the downside objective could be into the lower, lower part of this channel now, 6780 area. Kiwi Swiss, I have this overnight I've taken the profits now. Watch for the test here of the ascending trend line support. 5998 through there and we've got some clear water certainly down to 59 and we could be heading lower than even to test this area as range support down to 57. But again watch how we trade at this ascending trend line support in terms of Kiwi Swiss. Kiwi CAD looks like it's going to give up its trend line now. So certainly if we get through 8660 in terms of Kiwi CAD then we've got downside to 8570 will be the objective on the downside. Swiss yen, I've got an order waiting to be filled in this one through these lows hasn't been triggered yet. But if we do trade, if we can get through the lows through 1490 and we've got a downside objective here at 11220 and I've got an order to take that trade if it plays out. S&P 500 just talked about this one. Pay attention in terms of the fact that the S&P is obviously driving risk sentiment. If we don't take out this trend line support and there is a chance that we're in a bear trap leading to a bull trap. So let me just draw this in for you. Yeah, this is a bit bigger. So we've got a potential five-way sequence here. So we have one, two, this will be three, this will be four and the fifth there I think would set up a margin on new high versus our current highs. And that would just get everybody excited on the upside. But what I'd be paying attention to on that margin on new high is divergence. And we could get a great divergence set up here. Everyone gets pulled up as we just take out the highs before we get another leg lower. But at this point, pay attention really to this 34, 30 area, 3400 if we get through there. Then I'd say the high is in and we can discount this count. And what we'd be looking for then would be that this is our A, B and we'd have a C point here, 31, 60 heading into the elections as people reposition basically ahead of the election and take cash off the table. NASDAQ came up into its quality objective and it's rolling over again. Watch the trend channel here. We take out the 11,500 area to suggest that this is the A, B and we've got a C target, which would be a C target down there at 10, 481. So we'll be looking at this type of pattern into an election low and then it probably takes off again to the upside. Gold, tricky, still trading in a very tight range. I think this is bound pretty much by the elections at this stage. Wasting to see what the shakeout is before gold's going to make its move. Crude oil again trapped in this range at this point. What I am interested in is copper here, copper. Doesn't look like it's going to make you high. We've traded up, retest the prior, we're sending trend line support as resistance. Looks like we're potentially rolling over here. The cycle indicator is already bearish and copper certainly leads those commodity currencies. If we see weakness in copper now, we can expect risk sentiments to meaningfully roll over. So those are the charts I'm watching, setups I'm watching, positions I'm in, Aussie and Euro mainly at this stage, watching some key potential trend line breaks to play pullbacks and then getting on some moves. Okay, so that wraps up the charts I wanted to discuss today. Are there any questions? Would anyone like me to take a look at the chart? I haven't covered. You can type it in the chat box and I'll do so. If you don't have a question, if everything's clear and then in the chat box, it's equally helpful. So I know we're all on the same page. Okay, to here. Hi to here. Hello. Hello. To here. Yeah, how are you doing? I'm doing well. Great, Mr. Patchwick. Nice having you by this time of the day. Very good, very good. Well, how can I help you? Yeah, concerning the trends you just predicted or you just forecasted, basically some investors are having a schedule ahead of the US elections. But what I need to clear up on is I don't consider it any fundamental or certain investor sentiments in your analysis. So I just got to notice that you only use technicals concerning price movements. So here to here. This is how I look at things. To me that the chart that the price, the current price contains all current information known by all market participants. And so the technical setups or the patterns that I'm looking at are a indication of a probable scenario. So one probability being higher than another. But what drives those patterns to complete is often fundamental or market supply or demand shocks. So obviously the US election is a major component to that at the moment as is Brexit. And so the patterns to my mind proceed or give us the edge for an opportunity that may precede new market news. Does that make sense? All right. Yes, that's true. So I'm fully cognizant and conversant in all the current market narratives and themes. And like I say, the guys I work with, you have to have that because having that information allows you to almost look at the charts and where you see a technical pattern the knowing what could be coming down the pike in terms of market narratives and dynamics allows you to see what could drive the price action. All right. Thank you. Actually, I have to say thank you for improving my trading strategy with your forecasters and all those stuffs you are giving. Thank you. You're very welcome. Thanks to here. Any other questions? Okay. If there aren't any other questions, I'm going to wrap this one up here and we will reconvene at the same time next week. Have a great weekend and a great trading week ahead. All the best. Thanks.