 Welcome, traders, to another Tikmer Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 21st of March with me, Patrick Mullamy, with major central banks out of the way for another round of meetings. And before really getting into discussion of what is a relatively light calendar based on risk for the week ahead, it's worth thinking about a key debate in markets that surrounds how to determine fair value for longer term bond yields at present and going forward. This issue affects a number of debates such as relative attractiveness of longer term bonds as investments, where the policy tightly by central banks like the Federal Reserve Bank of Canada, the Bank of England could risk inverting the yield curve and triggering recession warnings. And how much of a further hit could be forthcoming to fixed term household and business borrowing costs? Although the world's major central banks have all issued recent policy decisions, several of them will follow up the decisions with addresses that may further inform policy expectations. Several regional central banks will also weigh in with decisions on Thursday. Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks on Monday in a moderated session at an annual economist convention. Powell speaks again on Wednesday on a panel and event held by the Bank of International Settlements. Bank of England Governor Bailey will also speak on the same panel as Powell on Wednesday. ECB's President Lagarde speaks in a different session at the same BIS conference on Wednesday in a moderated discussion. The PBOC is widely expected to leave its one and five year loan prime rates unchanged into the start of the week after having left its leading one year medium term lending facility rate unchanged recently. So with that in mind, let's jump into the data events for the week ahead on Monday. The U.S. we get February, Chicago activity index, provided timely update on the activity in the region. We also get fed speed from Powell, as I mentioned. We also hear from Bostick, who's speaking at an N.A.B.E. conference. On Tuesday, we get the March Richmond Fed Index, expected to print a two sourcing labor remains a real challenge in that area. And we also get further fed speed from Welford, Williams and Daley. Then on Wednesday, we get the February new home sales looking for a 1.8% print there, easing supply issues of positive and rising rates likely to act as a headwind. And obviously we hear from Powell on Wednesday. We also hear from Meister and Daley again. Then Thursday, we get February durable goods orders looking for a negative 0.6% print there, volatility in the transportation segment is likely to be a headwind. Other than that, we're expecting some strong readings there. We also get initial jobless claims remain at a very low level for the foreseeable future. We will also get March market manufacturing PMI looking for 55 versus the last housing at 57.3. Growth is still building across manufacturing and services are likely to hold a robust pace. We're looking for a 56 print on the services on Wednesday. We also get the March Kansas City Fed Index manufacturing outlook remains very strong for that region. And more fed speed, Bullard, Kashkari, Waller and Bostick. And then on Friday, we ran out the week in the US with the February pending home sales looking for a 1% print there, demand is strong, but should call with higher rates over the remainder of 2022. We will get March University of Michigan sentiment looking for a 59.7 inflation worries amid the Russian Ukraine are likely to weigh on that. And we ran out the week with further fed speak from Dali, Waller, Williams and Barkin. From a technical perspective, Dollar index is pulling back from that monthly range resistance as anticipated in 1922. We're looking for three wave corrective move to test and hold the 97.30s watch for bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side, ultimately looking for that test of the 78.6% retracement of the 2021 decline coming in at 100.76. At this stage, only a loss of the trend line support here at the 97.30s would concern the bullish thesis looking down for a move down to test 96.60s monthly protective range sport and the channel sport just below 96.20s and really to turn meaningfully bearish on the dollar, we'd have to close below that trend line. In terms of the Eurozone, we are looking at Wednesday when we will receive March consumer confidence, the Russian Ukraine and elevated prices are likely to be ahead weaned last time out a negative 8.8 print and looking for something in that region of game. Then on Thursday, market manufacturing PMIs looking for a 56 versus the last print at 58.2. Obviously COVID-19 restrictions are easing across the block and that's likely to be supported. We also get services PMIs looking for a 55 print versus a last out 55.5. The loosening of restrictions are likely supporting growth but that Russian Ukraine story is still likely to be a supply headwind and we ran out a week in the Eurozone with Friday's February M3 money supply last out 6.4% year of year. Credit data will also be due and liquidity is ample for the economy at the moment. So in terms of the technical picture, the Euro is testing and found decent supply at the internal trend line resistance in the 1120s. Whilst we hold that area as resistance, I'm looking for extension back down to test monthly projected range support 10847 en route to retest price cycle loads at the 108. At this stage, only a snap back and a close back through 111.50s would be a bullish development setting up a test of monthly projected range resistance 112.35 and the trend channel resistance above at 113.50. Moving to Japan, what do we have there? Well, it's a very light calendar. We only get on Wednesday, sorry, Thursday, we get the March Nikkei services PMI last out 44.2. Services are in a rough position post the Omricon manufacturing is likely to be a bit more positive but supply issues remain in place and we that's all the data we basically get from Japan next week. So that in terms of the technical setup whilst we hold now above the projected ascending trend line resistance, 117.85. I'm actually looking for an extension up here to test the 120. From that 120 figure test, I'm going to be looking for a minimum corrective pullback back into retest these price cycle highs 116.40s. At this stage, a close through 122.55 would be a significant bullish development opening of a test of 122.33. We've got some momentum divergence developing here and so I am looking for a pullback. In the UK, we start off the week on Monday with the March right move house prices, rising mortgage rates are set to cool demand really over the remainder of 2022. On Wednesday, we get the February CPI last out, negative 0.1%. Energy inflation really remains the key driver there and is likely to weigh on that data. Then it's Thursday, we get market services PMI and manufacturing PMIs. We need stroke things services post Omicron, robust demand and catch up work should support the manufacturing data there as well. Then we round up the week in the UK with March, GFK Consumer Confidence. Geopolitical tensions are likely weighing on business and consumer sentiment at this stage. We also get February retail sales, weak purchasing power may start to squeeze discretionary spending in the UK. From a technical perspective, the sterling tested at 130, we did get the reversal we were looking for. I'm now looking for pullbacks to find support into 130.80 and as they do, I'm actually looking for a minimum three-way corrector move up into test 133 on the upside. At this stage, a near close back through 130 would suggest further downside and really I'd be very interested to see how price responds at the 129.40 which is the projected sending train channel support. A close through there would suggest further downside and we've been certainly looking at test of the S3 at 128.75. But for now, let's see if we can find it, continue to maintain support of the 130.80 to 130.90 to target 133. And rounding out the week down under in Australia is particularly like calendar there. This week, we really only have on Tuesday, the RVA Governor speaking at a conference, but again, there's no Q&A there so it's not likely to have much of a market impact. The Aussies likely to take more of its lead this week from risk sentiment which obviously was buoyant on Friday. So if we can continue to find support at the 73.20, 73.30s, I'm actually looking for an extension up here to test resistance into the 75.30s. At this stage, it would really take a close below this descending, sorry, ascending trend line support now sitting at around 72.30s to suggest further weakness and bring us back into range support down to the 70 handle. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 21st of March. As always, traders plan the trade, trade the plan and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.