 Good day, fellow investors. I have been recently researching all the fertilizer stocks to find the best risk reward investments there and this is what I found. So you look at market caps, you look at EBITDA and then you look at the free cash flow, the forward free cash flow yield, what they expect as the investment cycle ends for most companies. So CF Industries that we're going to discuss today offers a forward cash flow yield of 8.54% has been very rewarding to shareholders. The main issue is buybacks. K plus S is a terrible company. I'll make another video of that. Mosaic promises to reach the same level of CF Industries, but they have a higher level of that and that's really the free cash flow is projected. So CF Industries I think gives a bigger margin of safety. Nutrient again, another safe stock that has a good yield and you might want to look at that as a safe play for exposure to fertilizers and the necessity that global necessity of more food and more fertilizers. Yara International, Norwegian stock a little bit stretched due to a lot of acquisitions. So CF Industries overview, they have a lot of mostly nitrogen, urea, ammonia, uen, etc. producing plants across the U.S., something in the UK and a little bit in Trinidad. The main point of CF is that they are really producing cash flows. So 1.5 billion cash from operations, they have returned 700 million to shareholders during the last year, so really, really good from that standpoint. But as with many other companies, the available cash flows are often used for a lot of financial engineering and usually those destroy value in cyclical industries. So please pay dividends if you are CF's management, but that doesn't increase the value of their options or at least they think so. So they have initiated another 1 billion share repurchase program through 2021, they will repay the debt, which is okay, and they will pay 1.2 dividend per share, 1.2 dollars per share annually, capex to be 400, 450 million. However, they have already spent 4.9 billion on repurchases over the last seven years, 4.9 billion, that is what, 50% of the market cap, that's huge and the price didn't go anywhere. So in 2012, the price was 47, 40, and now it's again around 40, 42. So 55 billion spent for no benefit for shareholders from that perspective. And I argue that if they would spend it on dividends, it would be much better. Let's dig deeper. The brilliant move is that CF issued shares up to 2012 at a price between what, 10 and 20, even lower than 10, and then they started buying back shares of 120 million of those at prices between 40 and 60. That's a beautiful strategy that I don't understand. But okay, so the number of shares really declined, but it first increased and now declined. So the number of shares is equal to where it was in 2009. If they would have paid 4.9 billion in dividends on the 330 million shares from 2012 before the buybacks 2011, that would be $14 per share over the last seven years, or $2 per share. Adding the current 1.2 dividend would lead to an average dividend of $3, $3.2 per share. And I would argue that if the company would have been stable in paying $3 per share, it would be valued not at the yield of 9% free cash flow, but at least half of that. So the price would definitely be around 80 to 100 even more. It will be valued at the 80STS of the world, a profitable, good, stable dividend payer. However, the buybacks change those things. On average, it is a cyclical. So in the low cycle with high input costs and low prices, they would make a little money. When the things go good, they will make a lot of money. And let's say the average will be around 1.5, 2 billion in EBITDA. So on that, I think they will make with 500 million in CapEx, 400 million in CapEx, 200 million in interest payments, they will make 1 billion, 1. something billion in free cash flows that will allow, would allow for a 4, 3, 4 dividend to continue over the long term. The global nitrogen market is expected to grow as food demand grows. Lower prices, natural gas prices help the company. So nitrogen supply in the world is forecasted to reduce. But it is again nitrogen. It doesn't have a mode. It depends on India, Uriah prices, etc. So it is a stable company. I would just wish that they would not invest that much in buybacks, just pay dividends. However, maybe these buybacks that have really increased the number of tons per 1000 shares produced once they might kick in. Let's hope. However, with a normal dividend, if they would change the capital allocation strategy, the stock price would already be at 80 because it would be valued differently by the market. The point is that doing buybacks in a cyclical industry is very risky because you never know where you are in the cycle. The management's job is to be positive. We are cheap. We are cheap. We are cheap. But I have been listening to that since 2012 and they have been saying that since 2012. We are cheap. We are cheap. We are cheap. And then the stock price drops because it was not the bottom of the cycle. It was the peak of the cycle. So capital allocation, why not make things easier? Give the money as you are making the money to the shareholders and simply make it a boring stock. High dividend yield, which the yield will get better and better so the stock price might get higher without the buyback. So if the buybacks kick in, this will be a great investment because the dividend, the free cash flow yield is still 989%, which is much better than the average on the market. Thank you for watching. Looking forward to your comments and I'll see you in the next video.