 The second round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, around a 12, getting underway on Sunday night in Las Vegas, where we had the South 0.400 in, it's a very different race. And we've had the past couple of weeks here in the first round of the playoffs because those were all 750 horsepower tracks, this one 550, this one a bit shorter than those races. And it's the top 12 drivers being playoff drivers as opposed to the top 16 in the starting order. So a lot to discuss for today, a lot to break down. We'll let you know optimal strategy to this race and my favorite drivers in each salary tier based on the salaries over at FanDuel.com. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDuel podcast network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com here to break down Sunday's South 0.400 lock is at 7 p.m. on Sunday. So you've got time to fill out lineups. You can do them right now, but also after you fill out your NFL lineups, just boop on over, check out some NASCAR ones as well before you do your Sunday night single game slates. Check out the South 0.400 again lock at 7 p.m. Eastern on Sunday night out in Las Vegas. We're going to break down everything you got to know for this race in just one second at first. Hey soccer fans, this season FanDuel and Captain Morgan are teaming up to give you a one-of-a-con soccer contest. Introducing Captain Morgan's soccer pick-up, a weekly fantasy contest that is entirely free to play. The contest is simple. All you got to do is make quick predictions for Saturday games this soccer season. You'll win free points for each correct pick and compete for a chance to win $3,000 in prizes every single week. Head over to FanDuel and enter the Captain Morgan soccer pick-up today. Must be 21 plus to participate for more details as at FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel fantasy app. Eligibility restrictions apply. Don't forget to make your game day more delicious and sub in the Captain. Also a quick reminder, we do have a listener league for week three across the NFL. Go to FanDuel.com slash league slash listener league. FanDuel.com slash league slash listener league. $5 entry, three entries max. There is no rake. So FanDuel makes nothing off this contest. In fact, they'll probably lose some stuff. So go to FanDuel.com slash league slash listener league for a great format there. Get entered for week number three. If you want our thoughts on week three in the NFL, check out our weekly heat check pre-gift. Myself and Brandon Cadullo broke down our favorites options across each position. Also our favorite games of stack and much more. Again, just search for the number fired daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. While you're there, leave us a rating and review as well. Let's take a look at the track breakdown for this week. And as I mentioned, things are a bit different than they were last week in Bristol because for the first round, I went pretty much all in on having three playoff drivers in each lineup because I wanted to soak up the laps led. We could get a little bit of place differential juice too because there were 16 drivers in the playoffs as opposed to 12. This week, I think three is an option, but two is our minimum. And I think it'll probably want to be my baseline for this week. The reason two is the minimum is that there are still a lot of laps to be led in this race. There are 267 laps, which is 26.7 FanDuel points for laps led this week. And that's plenty. In a situation where I want two lap leaders in each lineup, those lap leaders are very likely to be playoff drivers because the top 10 drivers in my model's projected average running position are all still playoff drivers. That means that they're starting inside the top 12 spots and they still have the playoff drivers at the front here. So all the playoff drivers are in the top 15 in projected average running position. So you want lap leaders. Those lap leaders are very likely to be playoff drivers. That's why I'm at a baseline of two. And that did play out well in last year's playoff race at Las Vegas, which was also in the round of 12. There we had two playoff drivers in the perfect FanDuel lineup and it's exactly what you'd expect. So the anecdote lines up and we do see a play out in practice. I do think you have leeway to get three in some lineups. I don't think it'll be my baseline again, but you can get three in some because last year's race was very different from this year. Ryan Blaney was not in the round of 12 last year because he was terrible. Richmond and Darlington could not advance, but entering Las Vegas, he ranked fourth in my model entering that race. He was one of the non playoff drivers who made the perfect lineup there. This year, there's no Blaney type guy because again, there are no non playoff drivers in the top 10 of my model's projected average running position. So there's just less place differential to be had among the mid and upper tier guys, which means a larger percentage of the points scored in this race will come from finishing position and lap sled that favors playoff drivers. So I do think that my default will be two playoff drivers, but I'm going to have three in some lineups two just to soak up good finishes, et cetera, et cetera. As far as the value plays go, you can get a bit of place differential there. Nothing too crazy. Like we're not stacking the back, but you can get some there. Kurt Busch starting back in 20th. He is a recent winner here, one on a mile and a half track this year. Chris Busch is starting 25th. He ranks 16th in my model. Last year's perfect lineup had no driver starting lower than 20th in it, but I can see that changing this year, whether it be Busch, Buscher, Bubba Wallace, guys like that. I think they could all be Ricky Sinau's junior. Those guys could all be contention to change that this year. The starting order just broke different for that one than it did for this one. The ripple effect is felt both here and with the studs. Basically, you want to prioritize the best finishers for this race, both for studs and for value, which is why I'm okay going with three playoff drivers in some lineups. If I'm selling up for good finishes, those are the guys who are most likely to get them. Then if you can get good finishes from place differential and place differential from the value place, take that. I just wouldn't force it. I think that we do have some options there, but don't like go out of your way to get place differential. Just take it if it's available to you. Put a heavy emphasis on finishing position when deciding who you want to lean on this week. When trying to identify finishing position, you can almost ignore the path through races. I say almost like my model does ignore the path through races like entirely. All those races took place in a different horsepower package. This is the 550 horsepower package. That was the 750. It's a very different set of drivers you expect to contend this week than what we had last week. I'll be looking most heavily at the one and a half mile tracks. That is all the 550 races except for Michigan and Pocono. I do have Michigan in there because it is the most recent race at a 550 horsepower track. It's also one that took place after Hendrick Motorsport's got reprimanded for having weird noses on their car. So I do care about it. They still ran well there. Byron is fast. Larson was fast. So it's fine. Elliott was fast too. So I do have it in there, but I would prioritize looking at the mile and a half tracks and seeing what drivers have done there. And that does mean basically ignoring what we saw the past three weeks. So to recap here, I want at least two playoff drivers in every lineup. I have some leeway to go three. My baseline will be two, but I will go three at times for the value plays except place differential if you can get it. But don't force it. I do think we can get some guys here who do fit that. And finally, when you're trying to select your drivers lean on what they've done on the mile and a half tracks to decide who will be fast on Sunday. So that is our strategy for this week and what we want to emphasize. Let's use all that and decide our favorite drivers in each salary tier based on the salaries over at Fandall.com starting off with the elite tier that is Kyle Larson at $14,500 through Chase Elliott at $12,500. I'll be aggressive with Kyle Larson here. Just want to be flat out with that. My wind simulations adore him. They have never been as high of a driver as they are on Kyle Larson this week. His wind odds in my simulations are 29%. That is very high. That means his outright odds should be around plus 240. He's plus 260 at Fandall. He's longer elsewhere from a betting perspective. Bet him somewhere else. I bet him at plus 300 last night. You can still get better numbers than that. I just don't have access to those. So go back Kyle Larson outside of Fandall. But I think for DFS just go hard at him. Larson has led 836 laps on the mile and a half tracks this year. Nobody else has led more than 152. He's got 680 something more laps led than anybody else in the sport this year on these tracks. And that doesn't even include the All-Star Race, which was also at a mile and a half track. I'm going to be heavy, heavy, heavy, heavy on Larson, even at $14,500. I know he'll be popular, but I will be overweight. I can almost guarantee you that for this week. Number two is Kyle Busch for sure, even though he's salary is $13,500. I will say though that if I run like super rudimentary projections for this late, these are the top four drivers in the field. I will likely have one of these four drivers in every single lineup. I prefer Busch over the others for two reasons. The first one is outside of Larson. Busch has been the guy to beat on the mile and a half tracks this year. He has five top fives and six races. He also won at Pocono, which is not a mile and a half, but it is $550. He was on the podium for four of those races. One in Kansas, nearly won the second Atlanta race. That's a big thing for liking Busch. The second thing is that he's starting 10th, so there is some place differential juice there. So Busch is number two. I'm going to rank this tier Larson one, Kyle Busch two, Chase Elliott three and Denny Hamlin four, but I do like all of them a lot. So if I decide to go with a two playoff driver build, it'll likely be two guys in this range. I don't mind the mid range or the second tier, but this range is really, really good. Speaking of that second tier that is Martin Truex Jr. at $12,000 through Alex Bowman at 10,000, the second tier not as juicy as the first, but if you want to go more balanced, I do like two guys here quite a bit. The problem is that they're both starting in the top three spots after Kyle Larson. So those two guys are William Byron and Ryan Blaney. Byron is starting third. Blaney is starting second. Byron almost won Michigan and probably should have. It's the most recent race in this package. Blaney actually did win that race thanks to an assist from Kyle Bush from the late race restart. Blaney also won Atlanta. He was top five in the second Atlanta race and in the first Vegas race. Byron went homestead. He was fourth in Charlottes, ran well in the All-Star race. Between these two guys, I prefer Blaney. He just has better overall form recently. Like Byron had a weird summer. I think the Michigan race was encouraging, but weird summer, Blaney was awesome. So slight preference for Blaney. Byron's great though because these two guys are starting right at the front, they don't pair well together. I do like them a lot individually though, especially in lineups with Kyle Bush or Chase Elliott where they can scoop some place differential points. So if I don't have Larson in there, I might be pretty heavy on Blaney and Byron for this week. I'm gonna rank this tier Blaney one, Byron two, Alex Bowman three, Martin Truex, Junior four. Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano are pretty tough cells for me given their lack of speed on the mile and a half tracks. They've led a combined 19 laps on these tracks this year. I have led as many laps as Kevin Harvick on these tracks. So I think to me the second tier pretty far below that first tier, but of this tier, Blaney and Byron are the two standouts and do look pretty good if you want to go a bit more balanced with your build. The mid-range is Brad Keselowski at $9,700 through Matthew Benedetto at $8,000. This tier does include two playoff drivers in Keselowski and Christopher Bell, but Keselowski lame duck driver at Penske and probably is not getting the best equipment slash information. So conspiracy theory, maybe, but I don't really want to go to Brad Keselowski. Bell has been awful on the mile and a half tracks. So my favorite guys in this year are actually three non-playoff drivers in Kurt Busch, Tyler Reddick and Austin Dillon. Busch is starting 20th. So he's got some place differential upside there. He won Atlanta earlier this year. He was also fourth in Michigan. So the speed of recently on the mile and a half has been there. He also did a good car in the first Atlanta race, but crashed there. He's a recent winner in Las Vegas. This is his home tracks, a little narrative there for Kurt Busch. I've got him right first in this tier. Second is Austin Dillon by a hair over Tyler Reddick. It is pretty clear that RCR, which is both Dillon and Reddick has prioritized the mile and a half tracks, which they should because it's likely the strength of their two drivers. Dillon finished sixth in Atlanta, 10th in Kansas, sixth in Charlotte. He ranks 11th in my model. He will start 15th, $8,200. So he's a core play, cash game play, very much in on Austin Dillon. Reddick could be a core play too. He has two top fives on mile and a half tracks. One of those was at Homestead. One was in Atlanta. And those are both tracks with heavy tire falloff and Vegas is not, but Reddick did do well in Kansas and Charlotte too. I have him a smidge below Dillon, but both those guys will be staples to me. I'm going to rank this year. Kurt Busch won Austin Dillon 2, Tyler Reddick 3, Matt DiBenedetto 4, less upside for him than Dillon and Reddick, but his finishing potential is fine. And he's also $8,000. Then I'll get into a bell and keselowski after that. Bell did finish seventh in the first Vegas race. So maybe I should be higher on him, but like they just haven't done a lot on these tracks this year. So tougher for me to get super jazzed about Bell, given they seem to have prioritized these 750 tracks. The value tier is Ross Chastain at $7,700 through Daniel Suarez at $6,500. As mentioned before, Chris Buscher ranks 16th in my model, but will start 25th. So he will be a core play for me at $7,000. Buscher has led more laps on the mile and out tracks this year than Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr. He has more top tens than Joey Logano, Kurt Busch and Chris Trebel. And most of that has come at tracks with heavier tire falloff, but he also finished eighth in Charlotte. So if we're looking at the drivers do my the most exposure this week, Buscher might be one outside of Kyle Larson. What could go wrong? I do think that he is, he's worthy of that. So Chris Buscher to me, a staple in cash games, tournaments, doesn't matter, Chris Buscher, the dude this week. I'm also down for Ricky Tana Jr. at $6,700. Sandhouse is starting 20 seconds. He has no top 10 yet at the mile and out tracks, but he's been top 13 four times. So at least knocking on the door. If you get that at $6,700 from the 20 second starting spot, you're pretty happy. He is volatile. Again, Ricky is his nickname. So, you know, keep that in mind, but I'm very okay with saving salary here on Sandhouse. So I'm going to rank this to your Buscher one, Sandhouse two, two, Ross Chastain three. Chastain hasn't had as much speed in the 550 tracks in the 750s. So yeah, just whatever. I'll put him behind Buscher and Sandhouse, but you can still definitely justify at least some Chastain this week. The punting tier is Bubba Wallace at $6,200 on down, and this is a great week to go to Bubba Wallace. He's starting 21st at $6,200. His 550 speed has been pretty good recently. He had top 15 average running positions in both Atlanta and Charlotte. The rest of this tier has four top 15 average running positions combined at mile and a half tracks this year. Bubba Wallace has two. So he can get the job done. He ranks 20th in projected average running position, which is better than Eric Amarola and Chase Briscoe in the tier above him. So I do like Bubba Wallace quite a bit as a big time salary saver. I will take some swipes that Ryan Newman as well. He's starting 29th at $5,500. He had good runs in Atlanta and Homestead. Both those are heavier tire falloff tracks. He just hasn't been competitive recently. Seems like he might be shutting things down as the season goes along. That's why I prefer Bubba, even though my numbers prefer Newman. Both those guys are viable, but prefer Bubba over Newman because it seems like Bubba is still pushing pretty hard. I'm gonna rank this to your Bubba one, Newman two, Cole Custer three. He's the one of the guy I'd be super inclined to consider here. I know Eric Jones ran well here back in the spring, but hasn't had a lot of speed since then. He does get some stuff from the Reddick and Dylan's team. So maybe I should be higher on him, but like it's a it's a tougher self for me for sure. So to me, Bubba Newman, the two punting options, maybe Cole Custer, maybe Eric Jones, but I think it's pretty easily those top two guys for me. Let's finish up with Winpix. We had Larson last week that went well. So we'll just go back to the well with Kyle Larson once again. Again, I have no one else above, I guess Kyle Larson is at 10.1%, but like he's the only guy above 10% outside of Larson at 29.3% to win this week based on my simulation. So he's Larson this week. Just go Kyle Larson for sure. The guy with a salary of $10,000 or lower with the highest win odds in my simulations is Kurt Busch. He is actually, I guess, yeah, it is Kurt Busch. Is it? No, it's not. I lied. Okay. So if we go 10,000 or lower, it's Alex Bowman at $10,000 on the button. Could go there or I could go Kurt Busch. Let's go Bowman. It'll probably be a playoff driver. I glossed over when I sorted by a win odds. So Alex Bowman is at 4.9% to win based on my simulation. So if we go at $10,000 or lower, Alex Bowman wants to get in the nod. So we'll make that the call. We'll go all in on Hendrick with Larson and Bowman being the win picks for Las Vegas. That is all that we have here for today on the Heat Check Fantasy podcast, but plenty more stuff coming up here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast. He'd actually already posted on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast. In addition to the week three DFS NFL preview, we have a UFC preview via Austin Swain. You can check that out by searching for the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. MLB DFS podcast for Friday is posted as well. So you have NFL, UFC, MLB and NASCAR all up in the feed for your consumption for Friday and this weekend. Find that by searching for the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Hit subscribe and leave a rating interview if you like what you hear. If you've got questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you to Everett for tuning in for this week. Good luck to you on Sunday night. Enjoy the race and we'll talk to you once again next week for Talladega. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.