 Good morning, everyone. So the surprise news is that the Bank of England Ended up holding rates, right? Sorry, which was a surprise For maybe 50% of the market as I was reading reports that There was the potential for The market to not hike rates, right? So if we go to the UK There was some news out yesterday that was You know, they were basically saying that potentially it may not they may not hike Yeah, might still raise rates tomorrow and The odds of interest rates falls after inflation drops. So it was a 55% chance down from around 80% the Previous afternoon anyways And so they ended up holding which On the face of it should be quite Dovish also as well The Bank of England is a CPI inflation to pause sort of to fall significantly further in the near term. So Yeah, it's not looking great and also says here UK growth likely to be weaker than expected. So low growth Yeah CPI to fall so will the Bank of England really raise raise rates are they hawkish? It sounds quite dovish to me. So Usually, you know nine times out of a ten or nine times out of a hundred I would obviously say, you know look for some short trades, but I wouldn't not advise Looking for short trades really below the two week fair value now on this occasion this occasion this, you know the point one percent from I Would maybe make an exception, right? Because of you know the gravitas of today's news. There is actually the You could actually go down all the way down into like a one minute time frame chart now You might think yourself. Why would you know? Why would you do that? Why would you go down to a one minute time frame chart? And it's really because with with the with the pounds you've got kind of the winding yourselves in terms of There being a bit of a surprise now You can see that here. There is a stop hunt, you know setting up in terms of you know Support their resistance very accurate resistance that's acting as resistance right there now You know this is though this this could be looked at as a I say it could be but it should be looked at as this being an unfair auction and unfair options typically need to be Completed right and just again for context. Remember. We are down at these absolute lows So, you know like I said buying here is not all selling here Shorting here typically is not advised like I said It's just really the the news and the context of the news now in terms of unfair options being filled Sometimes they get filled straight away. Sometimes they don't But what I believe is happening is that the market now is heavily positioned short and so what can happen is or what Does happen is that there's a The business model of the market makers is to provide liquidity For the shorts as well as making money right because they have to make money They can't just automatically take the other side of the you know the trades And not make money themselves. And so while everyone's short they need to you know hunt for liquidity above levels that are manufactured etc and so And so with the force of fundamentals right or hopefully the force of fundamentals You know in your in your favor, right? Liquidity has to be got before prices. Hopefully continue moving to the downside based off of you know, what's happened today. And so There's there's many ways that you can you know, you can look to trade this And I would enter into you know, just for transparency. I've entered into a short trade on the pound Aussie as well I'm I've gotten a short somewhere around These these highs somewhere around here. I mean short but Yeah, waiting for the pound And the reason why is because I saw that prices kind of came up and kind of completed this auction around here near enough Completed that auction. So once I started to see it was it was completed pretty much and you saw that bearish move There that bearish candle in the one minute I started looking for some short trades. So yeah I think I entered somewhere around here But we've got a bit of a wider stop just in case prices do come up You know above here to take out all this liquidity before going higher. So I do have a bit of a wider stop I don't have a tight stop. My stop is somewhere above these highs Which is around My entry was somewhere around here. Yeah, but you know 43 pips and I think that's a bit crazy for a one-minute chart But at the same time, you know, the potential is for it to follow through But let me go back to the pound dollar as well and the same applies really to to all-pound pairs But I thought pound dollar was was a bit more interesting because it hasn't you know come the auction hasn't completed yet now Yeah, so basically the point in this is that you know None of us know exactly we want prices if we're in a short-trade you want prices to you know to fall, you know Like a like a brick basically but there's a business model going on and That is basically the market makers have to make money to the upside and to the downside and they're tasked with providing liquidity and Completing unfair auctions right and mandated to complete this right at some point. It could be sooner could be later Or just make enough money so that even if they don't complete this Then they've made enough money right now. They do that Buy buy obviously moving the market in directions and Searching for liquidity and then moving the market in the direction that the fundamentals and you know the institutions want right so As I said, you know nine times out of a hundred I would never really recommend anyone really going down to You know selling at lows you can go down as the one-minute chart if you want to I don't typically do this but I thought it was just interesting because What you can do is look for short trades in fact around, you know a stop hunt around here Right and also as well anywhere really around this area here I think would be is gonna be really nice for For looking for sell trades with a stop loss above the that that This area here right because prices shouldn't really want to go above that area and less obviously There's something wrong with the fundamentally changes with the dollar Right, but ultimately what you should find is that you know with a rate hold You know prices should want to go here now So they said there is opportunity on that lower time frame at the lows But again really small position as small as you can and I would definitely say You know just take caution don't have like tight stops I mean there is the the You could have you know a tight stop if you wanted to you know try and maybe enter into a few positions and take a Few chances in terms of like a stop hunt But overall I would place my stop loss somewhere around these highs with the anticipation of prices going lower Now as an example right of auctions being filled and market makers we had on September the What was that the 20th, so that was yeah, I was yesterday. It's 21st of the year Forget having a one-minute chart. We had obviously Inflation come out year on year for the pound right and so we saw what we saw It was again a repeat pattern where there was an unfair auction and that on foot unfair auction had to be completed In fact, it you know got completed But it went higher than the than the news right so many traders might have been like well What happened there? Well, it was all about FOMC right and it was still about the liquidity because You You you know the market was still expecting the Fed to be hawkish. Why it was still expecting, you know dot plots We spoke about this in yesterday's video Where the Fed were expected to potentially continue to hike in in November or December to be hawkish Etc. So Although this was completed this by the By the by the market makers With the expectation that the Dollar was a potential buy right and with traders probably looking at short trades anyway Yeah Because this move would have drawn in so many short traders with so much liquidity being built up above these levels Yeah Around these highs these highs as well You can see it builds up these these are you know levels that Traders would have been building the liquidity and trying to short The market maker just takes them all out. Yeah Gets to the actual auction high Yeah, which was here right in anticipation of again Providing liquidity for the for the for the institutions and so Yes Overall the pound was you know a sell from here, but you can get situations where of course Nobody knows how far the liquidity is going to go right, but if we looked at this from example, I don't know like a one-hour chart Then we would have known and this is why I say typically I wouldn't even bother looking at this area as a You know I start and start selling here, but what really, you know, you would have Sort of supposed to really be looking at is the fact that this is the high of the rain So you've got lower highs lower lows, right? You've got a low there You've got a high there. You've got a low there. So that is in fact the auction Yeah, and then the auction goes all the way up to where that lower high was Lower low lower high. So that potentially is the auction. That's the bargain price. This was a bargain here That was expensive Brought his came back up to the bargain just before the The FMC meeting Yep Right up into that 80% area especially after You know the pounded, you know inflation had come down Took out all the liquidity above the market on that hourly timeframe chart Well, you know 30 minute 15 minute doesn't really matter, but took out all the liquidity before Yeah before rolling over again. Yeah, and I think the same thing is likely happening on A pair, you know the pair here where you know, the the auction is likely to be completed. Yeah Maybe in the short term potentially maybe maybe not Right, and if it does I think it should want to roll over and continue going Lower and that's I think that's gonna be the same thing for most pound pairs Like I said in less The other pair whether it's the base or the quote currency that you're trading the pound against Has a bit of some fundamental News that isn't great, but some yeah, I think You know, you can look at even the the the CAD something like the CAD Swiss is the same thing So you can see here There's a little bit of a stop-hunt there So you can see where stop-hunts are playing out But if prices do come back down into they ever come down into these zones and kind of complete this area here As much as when we zoom out we're only, you know, we're trading really at highs really above this two week fair value I would still Look potentially to get involved in this All right with a stop below here simply because it was a surprise Hold right although it made sense for the Swiss Frank to hold of course It was still a surprise to the market. You can see that unfair auction safe prices ever do come back down here I think that's gonna be a nice trade as well You know buying at highs right so Although never say never I'm just putting this out there if you do want to you can obviously not take this trade if you do feel that it's still too expensive Or let's say for example price could hover around this area here for a while Wait for the moving averages to a moving fair value to kind of catch up Then wait for a pullback to come down to it, right? So, you know by the time, you know, maybe next week comes along Because prices will always pull back But if you do want to get involved in this and buy at highs and take a small position Just in case it works out and prices go higher then it makes all the sense in the world But I would only ever suggest this based off of some really surprising news, right very surprising news And the shock like this and when you see, you know unfair options that need to be completed So hope that helps take care. Speak to you Good afternoon. Also, I thought I'd do a trade update. I made a video yesterday with regards to It's called the pound rate hold shorts expensive prices explain the why I was Shorting at lows, which you know, I told you guys not to do but there was a situation where I thought how do you know what? It's just you just felt too good not to do not I mean considering the whole environment and the whole scenario so you can watch this and if you haven't watched it before and Basically, it's just a quick video to show you what the trade, you know trade update and the the pound Aussie Managed to get some decent profit somewhere around a two-to-one somewhere around here took profits This morning now Some people might say well, why didn't you hold until you know until that low there and I Was thinking about it yesterday, and I thought maybe we could see you know prices potentially bounce back And there was some news here, which you know potentially could have gone against me I entered into a few positions. So it was you know, there was there was a bit of a pullback on here as well So I've got some really good, you know risk reward in a few trades So I thought I'd take profit at you know at obvious range Lows around there, maybe around about 8% area So that was the the pound Aussie, I mean I could have zoomed out and You know look to target, you know further down which you know Again, yeah, I have to speak. I am happy with you know the profits And this could have gone a lot further of course could have been a really nice Trade, but I figured I'll just take some some profit because I was I was in the the pound the pound dollar as well, so Ended up getting in the pound dollar Around this area, which was again, I was highlighting was a bit of a CPR and also the fact that you know, we had You know the scenario that had happened did enter into a couple of positions around here. So again got some really nice Prices nearly got stopped out matter of fact. I was thinking, you know, I hope prices don't go too far above this But luckily they didn't So So yeah, it was I did it around the 11 12 So I think it was my stop loss just above here Just in case it was coming up and it did manage to come up But then like I said entered into some really nice positions got, you know took the majority of my profit off this morning around these areas here so Yeah, just goes to show that you can short at lows, but you have to have really the environment to do it and Yeah, I would say definitely watch the previous video, I'm not going to go over it here But what's the previous video just to give you a bit of an update as to, you know, what happened, of course There was some good fortune here probabilities. Nobody knows this could have gone the other way, right? But But yeah, it actually went in the direction and again same thing. I could have, you know, potentially carried on holding trades but Because I was because I was you know shorting at lows I just thought that there's the possibility that prices could come back You know, I mean and maybe not break through so that's the reason why I took profit, you know around there same thing with the Again pound pound Aussie. I just thought that the risk of ward was decent. I mean some profit Some multiple positions, so I thought you know what this is. This is decent And yes prices could have gone and prices have gone now. I can just wait for a pullback. So anyone who's not in this trade You can start to wait for a pullback. Yeah, so as the moving to two week moving fair value starts to come down There are some levels that you can look towards Shorting, you know somewhere around here and even look at this area here So that so this the area up above looks like a stop hunt got various touches on that pound Aussie You know shorting that pound if you do want to get in on this on this trade There's something there also as well you do have a level where this is a CPR now So you can try to look for some short trades in and around here Um Yeah, so that's so that's really where you know where we are and again just buying a value So I've taken profit now I'm just looking for a decent pullback if it can pull back and you know, it may or may not soon But anyway around here is gonna be you know nice for a sell you could also Look for this again, but this is more shorting at lows That would be more of a level CPR and especially as the news comes out You know around here reacts, but then it's drops. So in fact the underneath of here could be Decent trade if you're getting you're very very bullish. I don't recommend shorting at lows Personally, I've made some money on this and now I'm gonna be patient and wait for a decent pullback. Do you know what I mean? So that would be my advice, but yeah, there would you know the whole scenario around shorting the pound at lows Came about and it's played out quite nicely. Anyways guys Again watch this obviously watching this video, but also go back and watch You know the reasons why I wish I was getting short on these pairs as well. All right guys take care and speak to you