 Hello and welcome to the CMC Markets Monday market webinar with myself Dave Madden marketing analyst here at CMC Markets Today's date is Monday the 16th of April 2018. The time has just gone 1215 BST furnace summer time quarter past 12 UK time quarter past midday And as always with the webinars, what I'll be doing is I'll be leaving the risk warning screens Risk warning slides on the screen if you'd ever read through. It's all very straightforward stuff It essentially states anything that has covered in today's webinar is purely just my own thoughts views and opinions and comments I should not be construed as explicit Trading or investment advice and it's something that'll keep my clients department very happy And if you tune in regularly to our webinars and the videos that we produce here at CMC Markets You know that it's all fairly standard stuff So while you're having a read through the risk warning slides, I was probably ever Quickly just to talk about kind of major topics and themes of the financial markets in the past few days essentially The markets had a recently muted reaction to the airstrikes in Syria Salty calls a lot of political political news. I suspect it's going to remain in the news probably 24 hours possibly even few days But for the first financial markets is concerned. It's relatively There's not has been a massive reaction to these to the situation the clue but that's your political Situation isn't any clear isn't isn't any more optimistic, but then again, it isn't necessarily any worse You know, there isn't a certain kind of fear factor from investors as some people may have may have anticipated what happened here on Monday morning, but hasn't actually really delivered There's been a few corporate stories out there Sharp pharmaceutical assaulter on the college you business sharp sharp Sharp pharmaceutical is also possibly looking at the subject of a takeover bid speaking of takeover bids Whitbread is Coming under a bit of pressure from activist investors Couple of activists investors that built sizeable single digit stakes in the company and there's once again talks that Whitbread could be demurged could be broken up into the cost-to-cost Division and also the primary in division. These are just a couple of the kind of major headlines corporate stories Yeah, I'll have under this morning Well, quickly do is I'll go to our a new analysis section of our website How I'm gonna do now is have a quick scan through the week ahead I suggest you take a look at the the news and our section of website It gets updated several times try the trading session a few of us a couple of us here in London updated on a daily basis And also we have the tributaries from our for market analysts around the world as well So if you scroll along here to the right, you will see late every Friday after every Friday I did it every trading week every Friday We will have the week ahead update posted on a quick lecture the week ahead So keep keep an eye out for one of the major economic teams major corporate and economic stories of the week So turn to tomorrow to tomorrow Tuesday We have Chinese GDP retail sales and industrial production on Tuesday. We have fun your figures from sports JD sports On Tuesday for tomorrow, we will have fun your figures. Sorry. We have first-half figures from associate of British foods I'm actually will be in the process of having an update on our website tomorrow morning as a reaction to the numbers and the And also commentary on the share price move On Tuesday and Wednesday, we have we continue at US Bank earnings We have Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will have their Q1 numbers out and on Wednesday We have the Bank of Canada the Canadian Central Bank interest rate decision Coming through on Wednesday. So they're the major both corporate and also economic stories to watch out for this trading week For those of you that are unaware, we also have a trading We also have a Economic calendar on our trading platform if you go to the market pulse section fourth option down market calendar gives you a breakdown of the major economic events of the day and Whatever the the figure comes in it'll be populated in the actual tab And then of course you also have a comparison forecast to look at and also the previous figure as well from that particular reading So some of the economic indicators that I mentioned Are going to be are going to be out out in the next Out of this week are going to be listed here on the particular trading calendar. So it is worth keeping eye on that What I'm not going to do as always is I'm going to run through The major indices a couple some commodities and currency pairs If you have any questions about about about markets, I'm covering feel free to ask And in the chat box and I've ready markets. I haven't covered and you want me to look at please please feel free to ask again So take a look now. What's going on with the FTSE 100? So the FTSE isn't fairly decent shape as you can see here the FTSE 100 Granted it was the early hours of the trading session but as you can see here in the market outside of the official trading hours between 8 a.m. And 4 30 p.m. For the summertime We can see here the market did much push push higher here and it just Fits it nicely with the valley. The FTSE has been in for over two weeks now granted this this this higher This this high here One two week higher here was created out of hours But it's going to show you which direction the market is moving in now. What's interesting about this this particular Candle here is that as the market was pushing higher here We saw a steady increase in the MACD indicator the MACD histogram. So which effectively measures momentum As you can see here when the market pushed higher here and created the highest seed in a number of weeks that that happened When momentum is actually in decline So we have a scenario whereby the market's pushing higher creating in this case, you know higher Higher highs, but the that is not replicated on the MACD Indicator it would suggest that we could see a bit of a turnaround So so the market has had a good move on the FTSE for that's a couple of weeks That could see a bit of a turnover or a bit of a pause before you potentially see another move higher But this upward trend over the last couple weeks is still very much in play I just suspect that seeing as the positive of momentum is cooling We could see a bit of a pullback. We could see a pullback towards the 7200 area Or perhaps down to the 50 moving average at 7165 But if should the wider kind of more positive should the wider positive trend of the past two and a half three weeks continue We could be looking at taking out the uh, we could be looking at targeting the late late February high Of 7,340 and if you go north of that, you could be looking at getting back up towards the Psychological important 7400 and of course 7400 also going to coincide to roughly the 200 moving average, which is also going to make the data breaker level all the more significant But it's only if you head south to say 7100 I could could be that then we look at possibly targeting 7 000 and if you go south to 7 000 Then it is it's quite likely that this move is only a correction and the market's turning over on itself yet again And it moves south 7 000 could bring us back down towards 6,839 the late March low I'll take a look now what's going on over in Germany on the DAX so the DAX as Is in for the last few weeks has been a correction moment like the 4200 as you can see here that high I was created this morning. It's taken off the high of the middle of March And we've hit a level here not seen since late February. So that that tells you what the sentiment is rep multi-week highs We printed multi-week highs It would suggest that things are looking quite positive as the market's pushing higher here We're still seeing a steady increase in positive momentum So the upward move is being confirmed by the steady increase in the MACD indicator Which is which is good, which is good for the BF and the bulls The next step to keep an eye on the upside will of course be the late February high of in around 12600 and if you go north of that then that's an idea to keep an eye out for this price area here of 12,741 notice how it's We've had a bit of consolidation in rather price area and actually the support In in January and also we've seen a bit of consolidation from that from early from early February In around that area as well. Can I keep an eye out for 12,741 and if you go north of that We could be looking heading back up towards say the 13,000 level Seeing as the market has had a decent bullet in the last couple of weeks We may see a better profit taking or we may see a bit of a pullback And if we do we could be looking heading back down towards the fifthly moving average which comes into play in around 12,300 but it's only if it's only if we head south of say 12,000 A big psychological number could then we'd be worried that the market's going to turn over itself yet again And I thought with the case then keep an eye out for this price area here in around 11,000 Well, let's call it 11,700 put to be a bit more precise. It's in around 11,692 So keep an eye out for that area level to the downside. Should the market turn over should the market go south of 12,000 The market markets, uh, the both the Dow and the S&P 500 are in better shape than their european counterparts And we have a look at those now So take a look here at the Dow Jones As you can see the last Couple of weeks the market's been broadly kind of moving higher a steady series of higher Lowes we haven't really had the The coinciding higher highs. So there's a firm base in here But we're not really see we're not really seeing a major amount of buying pressure kind of driving it higher. So The way I see it is this if the market remains north of this right line here the tourney moving average the outlook is Is going to be on the positive side But that being said we haven't seen any signs that the market is looking We haven't seen any signs that there's any any major buying pressure out there They kind of drive the market up towards 25,000. So we see the nice collection here of Higher higher lows, but we haven't really seen the higher highs in the flip side So it would appear that that this area here in around the kind of 24,600 ish Which kind of coincides with the 50 moving average this this this blue line here does appear To be acting as a bit of resistance So we get we'd need to take out that level here and also The the the other line here the 100 a moving average which comes to play at 24,840 We need to take out that before you become more confident that this upward trend is Has got legs basically and if you go north of that and the big psychologically important 25,000 level Then they'll come into play there once you go beyond that and if you take if you get a higher 25,000 We'll then be back to say about three week or four week highs and I would suggest that we're kind of we are Broadly speaking getting you on this positive move that we've seen over the last couple of weeks If we fail to take out the 50 moving average and the water moving average the market turns over on itself again We may find a bit of a bit of buying support coming into play in rather 24,000 mark And then if you go south of that next there keep next area to keep an eye on for Will of course be the 30 moving average which comes to play at 23,628 And if you go south of that the 20 moving average then turn your attention to the february low of 23,138 and that's the next big level to keep an eye forward to the downside Take a look now. I was going on at the s&p 500. It's a fairly similar chart We've seen it's holding up of the 30 moving average, but we haven't really seen a nice collection of higher highs So we can't really be overly confident, but as you can see here Similar to the Dow Jones, it's north of the 20 moving average Which of course which is just that as positive. We've seen a nice collection of higher lows here We haven't really seen a corresponding collection of higher highs As the markets have been pushing higher here in the past couple of weeks We've seen a steady increase in positive momentum. So the upward move is being confirmed by the MACD indicator. So momentum is with the buyers We just haven't really seen any kind of any major buying pressure to drive it on towards s&p 2700 area Which of course is big psychological number, but also coincides with the 130 moving average Notice how it dropped the month of March on a couple of occasions The world moving average didn't both act as support and also resistance on a couple of occasions. So keep an eye out for 2700 on the upside and if you go north of that They keep an eye out for the kind of this area here of 2752 We saw a lot of We saw some price consolidation in around that area in the middle of last month And if you go north of that they keep an eye out for 2800 at the upside We if the market does drift lower, we may find some support in around the 2647 or 2640 area and if you drift south of that again We may find some support in a 30 moving average which comes into play just north of 2600 and if you go south of the 30 moving average then turn your attention back to the February lows of 2532 I take a look now at what's going on in the gold market So keep an eye out what's going on here in gold to be honest the gold market has been a bit dull the last number of months If you're a rate if you like to trade in range bound markets Then gold will be possibly one of interest for yourself But if you try to train the trend it may not be the most exciting for you Broadies being gold has done 30 as I spent a lot of time north of say 1310 But also kind of south of say 1355 at 1360 And the trend recently in the past few weeks has been to the upside here We have seen a nice collection of higher lows We haven't really seen that many kind of classic level of higher highs This candle here does look quite posh But bearing in mind and you may think so all this could be it snapping out of it This candle occurred last wednesday around around this upward move around 4 p.m. Last wednesday when it's announced that Saudi Arabia Intercepted missiles from Yemen and which came which came into Saudi airspace. So That that move to the upside and gold happened on the back of the of the announcement that Saudi Arabia Intercepted missiles from coming from Yemen But as you can see the market has drifted lower on the back of that since But we can also see that this this blue line here the 50 moving average which comes into play around 30 30 Has a decent level of support in recent weeks And while we remain north of it It is likely that the bias is going to remain to the upside But we would need to take out the recent high of 13 66 before we can actually get more confident that the the market isn't an upward trend Should we go north of 366 we could be looking at it to 1375 11 not seen since july of 2016 And even if you do drift a bit lower even if you do drift south of 1330 We may find some survive support would play in around 1320 And even if we go south of that again We may find some support coming in when they get a 1305 1306 area It's only if you go south of 13,000 1300 rather would start to get a bit worried about the price action of gold I take a look at what's going on in the oil markets to start off with break food oil I'll start off by looking at break food oil on a double on the weekly chart And I explain why and you'll see why in a second because I have the Fibonacci retracement Analysis proposed on the chart So for those of you that don't know what the Fibonacci retracement is if you've got the technicals and then if you go to studies within that No, I'm in the wrong area here Under drawing tools rather Uh, it's this is the Fibonacci retracement here and essentially states that it's the Fibonacci You're going to school of retracement theory essentially to say it's after a major market move Some if that all of that move is retraced and it's It's believed that there are certain kind of key levels that a market that a market move will retrace its levels to 23.6% of the move 32.5% of the move 50% of the move and 61.8% of the move and also 100% of the move So if you take a break food oil here on the cash market And take it from the high of 2014 down to the low of 2016 That move was quite substantial I went from north of say 116 down to around south of $28 a barrel And if you look at if you apply the Fibonacci retracement You know, it's going to suggest that x amount x amount x percentage of that move is going to be retraced And as you can see here The market has retraced over 50% of that downward move of that downward move from the high of 2014 to the low The market has retraced more than 50% of that move. This is the 50% line here the dotted line We're pretty much just on the 50% retracing at the moment. So the market has regained 50% of it and it's hit a level not seen Since late 2014 it would suggest that things are looking quite bullish for the oil market So I'll take a look now on a daily chart I'll look at some Areas which could be of significance this dotted line here, which are looking at is the is the 50% retracing So we can see how the 50% retracing mark on Brent food cash is actually currently acting as a support And that comes into play in around 71 dollars and 71 cents And even if you do manage you're going to drift a bit lower there You may find some support coming to play in around the 71 dollars mark Already possibly as low down as the 69 dollar mark And then even you go south of that This price here which converges on the 50 moving average and the 100 moving average You may get to get um See if buyers enter the fold should be to be dipped down here and that will bring us down to around 66 dollars and say 95 cents because the oil market has been a solid upper trend Since june of last year. So we're talking about a you know, a nine 10 month 10 month rally So even if you do have a decent pullback, we may find fresh buyers entering the fold At most of the upside on a Brent Brent crude oil Potentially the area of assistance could come into play at 76 10 11 not seen since late 2014 I'll take a look now what's going on on the WTI market and to be fair the chart looks reasonably similar It's recouped about 5% of the losses that was incurred between 2014 and the lows of 2016 As you can see here But at the same time obviously the price levels are different as it is different markets But the the shape of the chart is fairly similar. You can see here since june of 2016 It's been in a solid upper trend higher highs and higher lows even though we saw a sizable sum off in uh In late january february the market continued on it's it's upper trend higher highs and higher lows only on friday We hit a level we get levels not seen since day 24 deans. So we are talking we are talking Uh levels um in about three and a quarter three and a half year high So it gives that give you an indication of how much the market has come along uh in recent months Uh, if you continue to push on higher from here, we keep looking towards the kind of big psychological numbers of say $68 a barrel $69 a barrel $70 a barrel $70 will be the big one to keep going forward to the upside for WTI If you move to the downside from here, we could really get support coming into play in around $66 a barrel Or perhaps down even low as 64 30 And even if you drift south from there, we may find some support coming to play in a 62 spot 89 50 moving average or even down as low as 62 dollars a barrel itself Like I said, it's been a solid upper trend for for nine months It's at it's higher than or it's higher than in over three years So this is the the bullish trend is likely to continue. So even if you have sizable pullbacks We couldn't see some fresh buyers into the fold I'll take a look now at a few currency pairs as I mentioned at the top of the webinar Um, I'm happy to discuss any any markets You want to have a look at just feel free to type away in the chat box I'm going to do a few the major currency pairs now euro dollar pound sterling euro sterling and dollar en But through any markets you wanted to take a look at feel free to type in the chat box So we're looking here at the euro versus us dollar The wider picture has been a market which has been a fairly clear upper trend In recent weeks though, it's been a bit range bound. It hasn't been it's The euro has held up against the us dollar But hasn't really had the energy of the momentum they can keep on pushing higher and then towards a 125 area So you can see now at the moment we're pretty much resting on the 50 moving average Which comes into play in around one spot 23 26 Uh, if we remain north of that the likely the likely that the positive Trend that's been in play placed recent months is going to continue keep enough for the upside 124 And if you go north of 124, we could be looking heading to the march high of 124 76 And if you go beyond that and they've got next big big psychological number to keep enough for will be one spot 25 Even if you do drift floor, we could find some support coming to play in around the 123 area or the April low of one spot 22 15 and even it's only if you take out the the march low here This is this particular candle here Which came into play on the first of the first the first of March at one spot 21 54 It's only if you take all that that candle that that that low there Then traders begin it begin to to worry and we could see a bit of a deep a deeper retracement In line with your daughter if you go south of that We could be looking heading back to this area here the early the early January high of one spot 20 92 We're now going to look at the pound versus the u.s. Dollar Which has had a great run we're north of come to be north on one for one spot 43 Looking at here on a longer term daily chart if you draw low from the lows of March last year through the lows August 2016 Granted is a few occasions. They traded south of this trend line here In April in August last year, but always but it doesn't manage to hold above it While we remain north of this trend line It's like a big about the positive upward move in pound versus u.s. Dollar is going to continue As you can see here in the past couple of sessions We've taken up the the march high and we've traded north of 143 a level not seen Uh since January of this year So and if you go north of the January high it would take us to say towards 144 145 And these were levels not seen since the 24th of june 2016 which obviously for those of you know, you can Obviously for those of you if I can remember that is the early hours of the morning after the uk's eu referendum Date Friday the 23rd was the date but as early hours at the 24th We saw that major sum off in sterling on the back of the result So uh move to the upside It's likely that the upward trend is going to continue Class example of higher highs and higher lows if you continue to depress higher on a neural pound sorry pound dollars cable We could be like heading towards 144 145 146 so on and so forth Even if you do drift lower, we may find some support coming to play in around The lows of the day session Where and which coincided with the highs of last month of in rounds about one spot 42 44 We may even find some support coming to play in around this area here one spot 41 55 leaving down as down as low as one spot 41 But even if you drift lower, we had occasions where you know, we couldn't find some support coming to play In at one spot 40 which coincides with the 50 moving average I'd be perfectly honest even if you do drift below the 50 moving average as long as we hold north of the the trend line I expect the outlook could remain positive for a pound us dollar Take a quick look now what's going on in euro sterling So after months and months of being a bit range bound we did see last week The euro breaks south of the of the march low and Go out to print a level not seen since june of last year june or so may have last year So we are talking about 11 month lows that were reached recently only on friday for euro sterling So, you know my interpretation is that that tells you what much you need to know about with the direction The market is is is heading we've hit it on friday. We hit a 11 months though We've pulled back from that ever so slightly But we still haven't really shaken that with that negative move off If this negative move continues continues in this direction We could be looking heading back down towards zero spot 86 and that back are potentially back down towards zero spot 85 Notice how after the market took out the at the march low That that that march low at zero spot 86 67 appears to be now acting as resistance for the for the bounce back And even if it does go north of that we could be looking running through resistance in around the zero spot 87 area And even if you go north of that we could be finding it finding resistance coming to play as zero spot 88 It's in order for kind of positive sentiment to be restored in the in the euro sterling the market would need to regain the 30 moving average Which comes into play at zero spot 88 87 and then if you go north of that Bulls will be looking potentially looking towards the the march high of zero spot 89 67 So as soon as there are no Inquiries or comments and there are no requests for me to take a look at another market What I'll do is I'm going to wrap up things up now in a minute. I'll do a u.s. Dollar versus the japanese yen And then I'll show you one or two things on our trading platform. That will be today's session So for the last number of months So coming November until march on last month march, we saw a pretty obvious downward trend in the u.s. Dollar versus Japanese yen Market created a lower low here lower high a bit of sideways trading It's January but then a class example of lower low lower high so on and so forth had to downward trend But now we have appeared to be recouping some of the ground Not this given that the scale of the setup we've seen between November and the lows of march We went from say 114 spot 73 down to 104 spot 63 quite a considerable sell-off We are we are recouping some of that ground and the market has been pushing higher here We can see that's been confirmed by the steady increase the positive momentum We are comfortably above the 50 moving average now which comes into play at 106 spot 77 If you can hold north of that We could see this upward move continue and if we do get to push on higher from here We could be looking at running into Running into resistance at 108. And if you go beyond that, we could be looking at Target potentially target 109 spot 78 11 not seen since since early February of this year But if the market does manage to turn up dip a low 50 moving average again and and I started to drift lower again We could be looking at heading towards 106 and if you go south of 106 We could be looking heading back down towards 105 and in south of 105 We'll be looking towards the march low of 104 spot 63 And if you take out the march low, we then be looking at potentially heading back towards 104 a very good mind We haven't seen 104 on euro sterling For quite some time it was November 2016 was that time so 104 on euro sterling So it gives you the indication of how significant the march low is Of 104 spot 63 Like I said, we're going to wrap things up in terms of the markets. We've covered just there For those of you who are familiar with our training platform I've already showed you where you can find the economic calendar on the market policies fourth option down It's also worth pointing out Some of the some of the updates that we do in terms of analysis It's posted on the news and analysis section on our website Which I showed you earlier on but some of them as you get posted on insights Which is the second option down this market insights here This gets updated throughout the day economic data releases some of the market Updates that we do get posted to insights and in fact a video recording on this webinar is going to be on insights in the next hour or so What I'm looking at what you're looking at here is the chart forum and the chart forum is essentially when When I take us with one of the analysts or or even any of the CMC markets account holders that would take a screenshot of a particular market And then write a few of the words about it And I want what they think the market is going to do in terms of the price action and also levels to keep an eye out on Keep an eye out for to keep an eye out on the chart forum as well um in the same place that you found the the um The signing signing a page for this webinar feel free to sign up for other webinars that we that we have on offer so tonight um On monday the 16th of april at 1930 per the summertime half seven p.m. UK time We have to our special on overcoming the four major trending obstacles on wednesday the 18th of april at 1930 per the summertime half seven p.m UK time we will we will assemble a webinar rather on next generation forex and then of course next monday uh 12 15 will be our our weekly monday update So feel free to sign up to all those webinars as well Uh, see as there are no no comments or questions at the end. I just will I'd like to thank you Thank you all from here all of us here at CMC markets. Have a good trading week and good luck