 trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 now Larry Pezzavento okay looking good Billy Ray feeling good Lewis raining very hard here in the Pueblo in Tucson Arizona today so hopefully the Internet will be okay why it happens that way I don't know but anyway we take a look at the footsie chart as you can see we made a massive top-up here possibly of course we can go a lot higher but it's basically that's the weekly chart but the one that I really wanted to focus on this morning folks was the Hang Sing Index because we were showing this last week and the week before that we were making that 78% level up there at the 29,000 level and then you can see today we've gapped down quite a bit partially responsible for this is the downgrade that Tommy talked about Moody's dropped it from a 3 to a 2 I think or something like that but that's a breakaway down move that means it's probably going to go a great deal or but look at this folks from the time they started rioting over there and complaining back in August look what the market did it went from 25,000 to 29,000 in the midst of a you know nearly threw over the government over there so that's where the technicians kind of help you out because even though there was blood on the streets the prices were still going higher now I don't know what's going to happen with this I happened to be in Guangzhou China I believe it was 2003 either three or four years three I think when when the SARS epidemic broke out and I had just given two speeches there to the university is there in Guangzhou and when I was getting ready to leave I didn't see anything wrong anywhere there was no panic nobody was wearing anything mask or anything like that when I got home I saw the news that my god it looked like the bubonic plague that hit the place now there's been six people die of this coronavirus in China now just to give you an idea how big six is you have to put a six on top and put the 1.4 billion 12 zeros so it's not quite a bad thing yet but it certainly could be because these viruses once they start can be very very terrible they've also been posting fake news about the fact that there's been 118 cases reported in Hong Kong and that's baloney you know that's neither here nor there remember folks back in the return of well back in the dark ages when we had the bubonic plague that that took about 20% of the whole population of the world out so that was something that was you know really quite quite a big deal anyway we'll just keep moving on okay now let's just talk just a little bit about one other market that I wanted to mention very closely and that is the the natural gas folks we've had a big big move down in natural gas overnight I wanted to give first I'm going to get up and show you the long-term weekly chart because we were down it yeah hold on here we'll see I know actually I was on Columbus's boat on the way over 1492 let's take a look here you'll notice here from 2012 we're making down in this area now we shut we we gap down I think 11 cents in natural gas last night folks actually Sunday night I mean it was a really really big drop I'll highlight it for you here in just a second it doesn't look quite this bad when you look at it the way it is right now but it hold on here we'll get this up here you'll see here that we got down to 83 we gap down from 2000 we drop down 20 20 points we drop that's $2,000 drop in natural gas overnight and you can see they cleared all the stops out and if you've been watching it when the market hit 183 the next trades after that were 190 so they went in who I'm not saying who they is the day is whoever they are but that's basically what happened there was that tells you that that's a major bottom down there at that 183 level and the fact we're trading 195 this morning is another interesting thing to look at that's a very very important thing to pay attention to okay let's move on to one of the other things that I wanted to cover today 877-927-6648 if you have any questions I want to bring this to your attention here and that is the the dollar excuse me the Japanese yen versus a dollar in its relationship to gold because it has a very high correlation as you can see here you can see here that gold has not been moving up with this the last move here when we cleared that level here this 110 level is given the market a little bit of a problem folks this tells me that the risk off might be coming I don't know the gold chart does not look very good last night in the gold those of you that take the 24-7 you'll notice that we had a perfect ABCD at the 382 retracement at 1166 excuse me 15 give me one second here at 1566 the market promptly dropped $17 down to the 1542 1552 level 1551 level and so now what we're looking at is to see if this level should hold and it should we should hold 1551 because we don't hold 1551 here in the gold this is going to be extremely negative folks it really is it's just keep a really close eye on the gold because below 1551 sets up a whole lot of a lot lower action in these metals that's the way especially in platinum which has been higher and went up to the fifth point broke down silver still looks not doesn't look very good at all but gold has to get above 1575 to increase its possibility of being in a longer term uptrend right now it is not telling us that folks remember that I am I'm a technician I don't really follow the news as far as anything that goes on in the world I see what the news is all I want to do is see how the market responds to that news that's pretty much it now today I'm going to go into this next segment a little bit but I was watching the thing in Davos today because I've been there it's an incredibly beautiful place there in Switzerland extremely expensive I think McDonald's Big Macs are 18 bucks apiece but they had Ray Dalio on and they had and then they also had Paul Tudor Jones and I listened to both of those gentlemen and both of those gentlemen were very very bullish on the stock market they think it's going to go up for another couple years and they're basing it because the money just keeps pumping in pumping in pumping in and cash is absolutely worthless and they thought the market was going to go higher and higher and higher and they probably will who knows but I want to leave you when we come to the first break with something here that might be of interest this is the headlines of Baron's newspaper here today on Monday that it comes out we'll get up here and take a look at it you can see here they're talking about 30,000 in the Dow the market's big run so believe me folks when you start seeing it in the newspapers be really careful in March of 2000 we saw three major publications business week business week time and one other magazine that's not around anymore I forget the three the three major ones all of them had Nasdaq 5,000 on it of course that was a long long time ago but I'll bring that to your attention right now because it was a long time ago let's get this up here so we can take a quick look at a word and I do it here it is just to show you where we were and the market gave back 85% of its value from 1999 2000 into 2002 so here's where we are now I don't know if we're extended here in the Nasdaq here at 92,000 or 92 million or 912 990 200 we'll have to wait and see 877 927 6648 if you're not currently using the TAS profile scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon the TAS profile scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2500 global financial markets such as stocks ETFs commodity futures and forex headed by Steve Dahl TAS understands that in today's technological world the use of top flight software applications and technical analysis expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market you also gain access to the webinar that Steve Dahl and Tom 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TFNN.com URL but when you do you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions we even have new pricing in six months and yearly options check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades TFNN.com educating investors call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 okay folks i posted the chart of that baron's newspaper the next one i want to show you from our good friend tom who guard who'll be our guest on friday he's just showing a very simple ruby i'll do my best to look at cattle and hogs in just a minute be happy to for you just a second here you'll notice here on the Dow chart going back over the past year and a half we have these big abcd patterns up in here you can see the moves that went 2100 points 2100 points now if you really want to have some fun with this folks and defy human nature go back and check the times that the market went up check to see if there was any similarity between those patterns on the way up because you're going to see it over and over again so we'll watch it very very closely yes that that nice sale at 1566 this morning turned out pretty good Maria we were very lucky in the gold today folks when we're doing these patterns has nothing to do with luck and stuff and has nothing to do with picking cops or bottoms these are just pattern completions that's all they are that's what gives you the s you know the edge that you're looking at because when you have it when you have your own trading system you have to have an expect expectancy of your average loss and what your average profit is going to be the next thing you have to do is to consider what is your risk of ruin in other words if these patterns work all the time you know everybody would know that but they don't work all the time so you have to calculate you know what your risk of ruin is how many losing trades can you possibly have you know before things go back and you know that's the main thing and the other thing that people get confused with is they they don't consider the risk of ruin on their account size these are some of the things that we're going to be covering in the webinar on the 29th and i think you're going to like it it's got a really great stuff so you have to learn to how to adjust your your trade size and also what your risk is on just about every single trade and that's where the harmonic numbers come in and help help a great deal so those are just a few of the ones that we're paying very very close attention to here this morning all right let's move on to another one that i wanted to discuss and this is another one from our good friend tom who guard and he was he follows the doubt because that's what he trades almost every day that in the DAX but you notice this is a chart of Boeing Airlines it's had a great deal of problems you'll notice you can see the he doesn't show it as a head and shoulders pattern it's a nice smiley face but it is a head and shoulders pattern and here again defy human nature go back and look at the the left shoulder and look at the right shoulder see if there's any symmetry between highs and lows and see what you're looking at but you see Dow Boeing is 7.5 or 7.49 of the Dow it's a heavily weighted stock in the Dow because it's the most expensive and the dows are are cap weighted they're not i mean price weighted they're not cap weighted and this means if this thing breaks down that's going to take the Dow down with it and i don't know of course we've got Tesla on the other side that keeps the you know the Nasdaq moving but remember when you're looking at that Nasdaq 100 folks you're looking at about 20 stocks out of a lot so this is a very interesting that we see here very interesting time that we're watching one other thing that was brought to my attention over the weekend that i think would be interesting here is to take a look at how these telecom companies have basically control over all the media everything coming out folks it's just these four companies Comcast Cox communications Time Warner and Charter Communications basically controlled everything that goes through the news and so it's very interesting but today's the day that they start the impeachment of President Trump i remember back in 99 98 99 when they did this with President Clinton and so how this works out you know we'll have to have to wait and see but we'll have to wait so i did he see something in in the Guardian over in London that someone sent me one of our friends over there said that the the leave of makes it the makes it thing with Harry and Megan leaving would be the equivalent of Nancy Pelosi getting divorced and marrying Bill Clinton he said that would be the same thing that's what happened in London so it's a big deal over there and i'm sure it's going to be in the news forever well paparazzi are going to make a big deal folks let's just talk just a little bit about what's going on in the real world of technology this next chart absolutely should blow you away because it's coming and it's coming quickly this is a picture of Beijing at the airport in Beijing China and what this picture is showing you the computer automatically grabs the face puts it into facial recognition into a artificial intelligence program and they know where you are within 15 minutes that's a 30 million people in Beijing folks they have one million homeless in that in that city so if they can find you within 15 minutes that we're going to be there very very shortly so let's move on to the next one with ruby here she has to talk to us about the the cattle in the hogs we'll start out with the old moocow is the best because they oh dear here they are hold on a second ruby there we go you see here's what i think is happening and this is pretty clear ruby i don't know if it's going to mean anything hold on just a second here let me get this up here so we can take a quick look at it it looks like we're going to get up to about 130 in the cattle at that point ruby you're going to have a three drive to a top pattern and you're going to have a couple of abcd's up in there between that one between 130 and 131 so watch that very closely that's a really nice three drive pattern and as you can see the pattern is still the market is still pretty strong so we want to be able to take a look at that we'll be able to see that okay okay jim is selling it's a california driver's license are now in gray scale and not color for easier facial recognition shut the front door and raise the rent boy i'll tell you wow unbelievable okay now we'll take a look at the little piggies now here again folks just remember we had this swine fee over in china and look look what's been happening to hogs they've been in a bear market for over almost a year while the chinese people have lost somebody in their hogs they didn't buy hardly any of ours as you can see but we're at major support down here at around 74 as long as we stay above 72 the hogs got a chance but i really believe we're getting ready to make a top here in the cattle market ruby so pay attention to that at the 130 level that's another one one other one that we were watching very very closely of course is the coffee market and we're very we i think we might even be here today i'm not sure you folks have to try me out because i don't really uh do coffee but where it should be right at near 111 this is going to be the the custer's last stand in coffee because we need to hold 111 could someone let me know where coffee is trading today i didn't check it because i've been too interested in gold and stocks and so i haven't really checked it but 111 should be the bottom if you buy the coffee at 111 you put a stop at 119 and that's it and if you're happy if it works you're going to be very happy and if you're wrong you're going to be just a little bit wiser and that's what those patterns are all about folks it's just about probability and when we come back from the break i'm going to share with you a quick review of what we're going to be looking at when i do this 24 7 web webinar on the 29th i hope you don't miss it because there's going to be all new stuff there'll be a few old little things to review them but there's some really great things in there on patterns that the probabilities look pretty good so let's pay attention to that and we'll see what happens we get back for the break i want to talk to you just a little bit about this coin toss thing that david worked on david paul worked on and just to show you how it can change the outlook of what you're what you're looking at so i hope that helps so we'll be right back 877 29276648 larry pezevento has just announced a special 90 minute live webinar taking place this month for subscribers to his Fibonacci 24 7 trading service on January 29th from 4 till 5 30 p.m larry will be covering how to read supply and demand and how in combination with his trademark abcd patterns you can control risk and maximize profit in today's algoh dominated markets in this live 90 minute webinar larry will cover a hidden in plain sight trend change pattern that gives you early entry into the trend how to find and update the key harmonic numbers to trade against in futures forex and stocks how to translate three go-to patterns into supply and demand and how to use them for entries the continued importance of the opening price in 2020 and how to use the time of day when taking a position and for entry into longer trends sign up now by clicking on the newsletter tab on the front page of tfnn.com and select Fibonacci 24 7 sign up today if you're a trader in the market looking to find the path that leads to maximizing profits while decreasing risk then now is a great time to try out Dave White's daily trading service the path of lease resistance through the use of options and equity trades Dave advises his subscribers on a daily basis of the current market conditions and what possible trade setups are on the horizon the path of lease resistance is published every trading morning often with updates intraday when initiating trades or closing out positions Dave White has advised his clients of some outstanding winning options and equity trades in recent months and now is a great time to try it out for yourself new subscribers to the path of lease resistance receive a 30 day money back guarantee see for yourself the types of options and equity trades that are available by signing up for the path of lease resistance today by visiting the front page of tfnn.com and selecting the newsletter tab sign up today tfnn is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts in collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology using this first of its kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including Gartley's abc's butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com okay folks i got a special chart here that i want to bring to your attention Shane Smolian just uh just sent it on to us about the Federal Reserve and uh just get this up so we can see it clearly here and you'll be able to see and this is what Ray Dalio and Tudor Jones was talking about and we'll be able to take a look at this here you can see here that this thing has been there still pumping it in so you can see that that there's probably no reason now we'll do one thing at a time remember what i said i when i look at these patterns i'm just basically trading them because it gives you a risk reward shot with a really good uh possibility of uh whether the patterns are going to work and we noted the positive expectation expectancy on these patterns is extremely good Andrew Lowe proved that in his book so that's uh that's neither here nor there so let's keep a close eye on this as we walk through if you remember we were talking about this uh hold on one second i want to get this other one up to uh take a quick look at it here that's not the one i wanted to see where is it here okay shut the front door and raise the rent uh oh oh let's uh wait a for all we got a question here hold on a second here we've got a question about the gold folks uh the gold does not look very good we talked about this over the weekend we talked about it sunday we talked about it monday and it's just not acting very good at all so that actually crude oil is not acting much better either so both of those are not doing pretty good not doing very well at all okay i want to share with you something that david paul talked about and this is uh let's get this up here to take a quick look at it and this is a primer of some of the stuff that we're going to be looking at all right let's look on here where would be a good price to get short on the crude oil i'd say around 58 32 somewhere in that ballpark look at the retracement so that'll give you a rough idea all right i like this quote that david put in there from from richard wike off unless you completely discard all news reports tips corporate statements crop situations you'll be unable to get the best results from your market position i love that quote and uh who knows okay let's take a look 33 20 i don't know what that means maria remember if you're happy and it's you're going to be right but if you're wrong you're just going to be a little bit wiser so remember that all of let's just take a look at this folks this is that this is one million coin tosses folks done by a computer one million coin tosses done by a computer and what you're seeing is the theory of runs in other words you see you have one win and then you have two losses and then a win and then five losses but this is over a million times so it's 50 50 at the end of this at the end of this thing after one million you're going to have 50 percent wins and 50 losses but in between there can be a huge huge huge be you know unbelievable so that's it well we went short to s and p sunday night at 33 26 i believe we have a stop at break even now we sold gold at 15 66 and we have a really big profit in that we've locked in a thousand bucks so that's what we're watching i don't know folks i i you know i don't really i don't want to go into this anymore okay it's all about probability and pattern recognition folks that's really what it's all about it doesn't mean very much at all the thing that scares me is when you see everybody at davos and everybody on the tv is you know looking for two more years in the bull market which they can certainly be right and they probably will be but when you see that much coming in and nobody on the other side of it you got to be careful if we saw this and i've seen it so many times i can't even remember but just follow the patterns you know we've had a vertical pattern up here the reason for the short in the s and p was very simple we had 1.618 expansions on the dow Jones the e-mini s and p the nasdaq went a little bit higher but that's mainly because of five stocks and the russell actually is the one the sell because that's been that couldn't even make new highs so that's all i'm looking at you know that's uh you know who knows i will see one one one or the other doesn't make any difference here's another one that's interesting here another bits of information sent to us by rich anderson do you realize it's 75 to 80 percent of all the volume in the stock market is on algo trading and believe me they're not looking at fundamentals they're looking at key words that are popping into the news and stuff like that but that's neither here nor there so that's what we're watching so pay close attention to it may or may not mean something at that i don't know now the next one we want to take a look at here is bitcoin by the way if you want to call in it's eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight okay as we look at bitcoin here you can see three lower tops going back into august that makes this a one three five pattern so ninety two hundred is going to be really difficult for bitcoin to get above this level and we're trading at 86 60 we've sold off $600 over the weekend just after hitting that number up there and now if we get above 92 what you want to be watching for now is for a watch for a retracement watch for a 61 percent retracement down to 7600 and then take a look at it remember bitcoin trades 24 hours a day seven days a week based on the different exchanges that you have and believe me folks boy you can take a coin toss on that whether it's all legitimate because you have to have electronic wallets and all the other things that are going on. Oh one other tidbit of information the CEO from Marriott was on today on CNBC from Davos and they asked him of all these hotels that Marriott's has all over the world which is the nicest and he said hands down Hong Kong he said the lobby is on the 98th floor and it goes all the way up to floor 126 you can see into China Macau all of that stuff so be a bit kind of bro fits descending turn his bitcoin never got above 9200 did it oh well we'll see anyway i'm not involved with bitcoin i post a chart because people ask me to take a look at it and that's really what i'm watching here let's see how we're doing this morning if we've regained all of our well we've well look at the nasdaq has almost made new highs again and the s&p's got all the way up to 3324 so evidently the flu and all that other stuff really doesn't mean much but we'll have to to wait and see what's really happening look at how quickly it moves when it opens up here the buyers come in we rallied rally 10 points right at the opening so we'll watch it as we go through here taking a look at it all right the treasury bonds folks the treasury bonds have had some really strong resistance i want to get this up here to take a look at it so you'll be able to see the bonds this is another one that well the quantitative easing is not on the opening i don't believe that's just just orders coming in and all that is let's take a look here at the gold market i just wanted to bring this pattern to your attention last night that we were watching really closely and as you can see here we went up made the abcd pattern there at 1568 we went short of 1566 and then where we just began covering it 1549 here this morning to see if because it's got a really good profit in it and we also want to if you have two units on is to put your second unit at a buy stop and around 1559 is what i would be looking at so that's it i am biased because you're long you should be biased nothing wrong with being a biased long or short but just remember when you have a bias it's like a person that's standing on the right side getting ready to take off for a race you got a big a big lead but if you do it the wrong way you're going to fall down just make sure that you put your stops in because there's going to be a lot of things happening in these markets that people will not believe so 877-927-6648 if you're in the cd market and looking for a secure investment the tiger first mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in st. petersburg florida the tax act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits which makes these lots valuable the investment is anywhere from 30 000 to 75 000 the interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis according to bankrate.com the best rate for a four-year cd in the country as of February 20th is 3.1% a 50 000 investment at a normal four-year cd 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monday morning i published a gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the xAU hui gdx as well as more than 30 different mining equities to see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting tfnn.com don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today till the s&p 500 continue to climb for bold trades on us large cap stocks in either direction trade spxl spu u or spxs directions daily s&p 500 bull and bear leveraged ETFs direction leveraged ETFs an investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit direction investments dot com a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor foresight fund services llc the bull bear trading hour with Tom and Tommy O'Brien next okay folks we're going to take a quick look at tesla if you remember we were watching tesla the other day here get this up here hold on one second oh shut the front door and raise the rent this won't do it this will do it hold on a minute here and uh there we go oh by the way she told me that the the Fed comes in here this first hour between 9 30 and 10 30 new york that's their first movement so whatever they do they're doing it anyway we're back up to around 15 20 i believe in the tesla we had a really nice little signal there that lasted for about 10 bucks but on a $500 stock that's a that's a heartbeat it really isn't very much we'll be able to see yes we are going to start to see volatility increase in everything folks i really believe that very very strongly and i i think that will be something that will be easy to see very very quickly now i didn't do the dax this morning because i wanted to show the weekly of the footsie and also the dax and here is the dax weekly chart as you can see here we've matched the high almost matched the high that we made in 2018 we have a three drive to a top pattern we have the big abcd patterns that's similar what we're seeing in the dow Jones and new york stock exchange index it's the nasdaq that has been going crazy and that's mainly because of those six or seven stores about a dozen stocks that make it really crazy now there's a possibility folks that we could melt up in the market here because of the fact that we are watching something that could be you know really really really crazy because google actually let's just show you how how google looks because you want to see a stock that could be just absolutely unbelievably bullish and that's google here this this is the long term daily on this you notice we were sitting right at the 61 percent retracement and we gapped above it and we gap substantially above it about $20 above that 1.618 level and that to me is extremely important now those are just a few of the things that we're watching by the way we will have tim boss is our guest on thursday uh tom hugard will be our guest on friday so we want to be able to enjoy what they have to talk to us about i think you're going to enjoy the part about how these coin tosses how they have how they affect the trading because it's it's truly amazing the theory of runs and expect expectancy that you have to view when you're when you're putting your trades on you know what your what your risk is per trade because it will vary based on you know the the value of what you're looking at and also the volatility it's very very important i wanted to bring this one up here which was the s and p here if you let's just get this up because this is what we're watching we got down to 08 last night which was a perfect number 30 3308 was a perfect 382 retracement telling you that the market still hadn't broken if we get below 3308 then you can say this is the first time we've broken a major pattern here over the past uh oh three years well at least a couple of months i would think since november that's what we'd be watching here we have a question here one second and uh there's the still the e-mini so i'm doing the best i can now so just hang in there buddy i'm coming it's a little slow out here in a web load today and as you can see here we've hit some major numbers up here in the dow e-mini the thing that's really concerning is when you see something like the the barons well i don't know if anybody reads barons anymore i haven't i haven't seen a barons newspaper in a in a supermarket or anything for years but uh when they start putting stuff on the things like that that's uh that's it the other thing don't ever be on the eye on the cover of time magazine because that's usually the kiss of death anyway that's uh what we're watching is a lot of a lot of enthusiasm and there should be folks this market's been going up for 10 years we've never had a bull market bigger than 10 years this is bigger than 1929 even uh 29 it went up for eight years so we get another two three four five six years who knows what it's going to be i wanted to bring this to your attention this is the Boeing chart that this is what i thought was very interesting tom had sent us his picture of this and all i'm going to do is to show you the head and shoulders pattern that tom had drawn but he didn't draw it as a head and shoulders pattern he just drew it as a pattern i'm drawing it as a head and shoulders pattern now what i want you to look at is on the far left there in june of last year you see that pentagon that's right there and then go over where we are back here in november of this year do you see that pentagon that was right there okay that means they were that was trading at 376 back in june of last year and at that time in november it was trading at 376 so that's a head and shoulders pattern look at the time symmetry and not only that if you look at the time between july and november there's another perfect head and shoulders pattern these are the patterns that dr andrew low put in his book the non-random walk down wall street where he proved that markets not only do they repeat but they repeat with a frequency and predictability that is predictable now it's not predictable 100 but it's predictable within limits and that's what you're trying to do when you're looking at things you have to know what that expectation expectancy is on the trades that you're doing if you're doing an abcd type trade your expectancy of winning is better than 60% if you're doing a 135 pattern the expectancy is better than 75% if you're doing a garly pattern the expectations expect expectancy is is roughly is roughly 70% that's redrive to a top pattern is roughly 75 to 80% but they do fail and that's the whole key of what these ratios and patterns are all about is they give you a risk parameter in order to trade around the patterns it's not about trying to predict a top or trying to predict a bottom it's trying to predict a pattern that you might be able to make some money on that that's all it is folks nothing nothing more nothing less those are just the things that that you're that you're paying attention to so that's that's what it looks like so we'll see how it all ends up here but right now we've got the s&p is still down on the day but not by much down about what nine from the high or something like that no big deal we got gold down that's trading at 1550 right now and so the bonds are still up a little bit the bonds need to get above that 15414 folks or they're going to have some problems that's the way it looks like to me as we walk through this today and looking at some of these things someone asked a question what is it what is the the prognosis for natural gas after a big break like that folks i like to see what happens over the next couple of days because if all that was was just some type of a news announcement that washed out a bunch of stops then i would say yes then i would say you know it's probably not going to not going to mean very much at all so we'll see if in fact any of this stuff means anything in the longer longer term of this thing right here if we're watching so pay close attention that's that's what we're watching here this morning all right let's move on here to talk about the grain markets just a little bit wow my goodness 8779276648 if you have any questions why we got a break coming up again let's just try to cover the soybeans here because i really think that there's a chance here if we get a little bit of a pullback in these soybeans that we could have a a little bit of a move and that's one of the things that we got to keep a close eye on let's just get this up here and take a look at it because right now as we come in today we've got a really nice a bcd pattern set it and at the 50 percent level as long as the march beans can stay above 920 if march beans can stay above 920 they still have a bullish bias anything below 920 919 918 it's not good so the mount you have to be to be a month the amount you have to beat a farmer now is very small 8779276648 i'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life it's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets i'm steve roads author of mastering probability and for the last 12 months timer digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the s and p 500 for the last 12 6 and 3 months timer digest also ranks me as the number one 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tfnn stay informed each day you trade and get the competitive edge that will help you stay ahead of the game visit our newsletters page by going to tfnn.com and click the newsletters button near the top of the page tfnn.com educating investors since 1984 basil Chapman has been using the Chapman wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion while originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply later basil found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy and calling price turns as well as market trend calls thus was born the Chapman wave sequence using the Chapman wave methodology along with other indicators basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter right now you can get a two-week free trial to the opening call basil's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of tfnn.com cancel it anytime during that trial and pay absolutely nothing get your two-week free trial to basil's newsletter the opening call today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com we're back folks and uh wanted to mention that to review the fact that we will have Tim boss on on thursday tom who guard on friday and that's a couple of things that i think are very very important i wanted to bring to your attention one other part of this situation that we're looking at in the stock market and the fact that we had that google gap up like that that could be a meltdown we could be seeing something like well we've already seen something historical we've never seen anything like this before we're up 10 years in a row but that doesn't mean we can't go 11 or 12 for anything if we get above 13 excuse me 53 30 that would tell us that this s&p is breaking out to the upside so we'll have to wait and see whether this flu thing means anything in china or not or hong kong wherever it is we'll have to wait and see the these are things that the news blows completely out of proportion just like what we're going to see in the next three or four weeks here with the impeachment stuff it's going to be really crazy now it won't be as fun as watching bill clinton's because his had sex in it well they'll probably bring some in here somehow i don't know how they'll do it but it's just a great way for the newscasters to make a lot of money with those commercials to get their realish readership up until the super bowl comes up that's the thing that you want to pay very very close attention to all right let's move on we're almost at the end of the show here so i'll have to leave you with the uh let's get this up here uh we hit major support down there and the gold folks at the 61 percent retracement at 1548 that was pretty much spot on so we'll keep a very very close eye on that as we keep watching some of these patterns so live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may god bless and i'll see you folks on the flip side tomorrow for a happy wednesday