 Okay, that is 1 p.m. British summertime. Welcome to this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munnerley. Before we get going today, let's first of all adhere to the risk disclaimer most important with respect to today's presentation. The views expressed by me are solely mine. They're not indicative or representative of those held by Tickmill UK or Tickmill Europe Limited. As we hear for the first time, a brief introduction to myself. After I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup, which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially, I had front row seats in the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market, sometimes quite literally overnight. I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or more appropriately at that stage, day gambling. After some early beginners' luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners' luck went out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure hit to my personal capital. To say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market, so I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years was a time during which I had not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose that emotional investment and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcomes of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next hundred trades because I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. A multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to Tick-Mill clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook breaking down fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos through the Tick-Mill trading viewer account. I'll post a link for that at the end of today's presentation. I also run Tick-Mill's e-mini strategy Facebook group where I post a daily trade plan in the pre-market before the cash trading session opens in New York. I give my bias for the day ahead specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have delivered over 3,000 points of profit since we launched in April of last year. Second Tick-Mill strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The Tick-Mill futures telegram trading group is a real-time environment or on a daily basis I share in-depth insights, analysis and real-time trades. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of the cash trading session in New York. This allows traders to essentially see in real-time how I dissect the market and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach navigating the markets and the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. Okay so that gives you a flavour of where I'm coming from. Let's jump into today's charts. As always I'm going to run through the charts that I'm tracking the setups that I potentially see developing for today or in the next couple of days. If you have any questions just drop them into the chat box and I'll cover them off at the end. Equally if you have a chart you'd like me to take a look at that I don't cover in my presentation you just drop the the name of the instrument into the chat and at the end I'll pull up a chart and give you a view on what I and what I can see. So we're going to start as always with the S&P 500 using the e-mini futures contract. I can bullish the the S&P certainly once we took out the resistance at the 40-50 level and we traded to that first target the equality objective the extension of the equality objective through 41-32. I'm now looking for today any pullbacks into this high volume area here 41-18 to 41-24. I'm going to be watching the bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side and my target now is the 42-20 and that's important because it represents the 161 extension versus the swing structure here and it also has daily projected range resistance the weekly R1 just below 42-14 and it also represents the 50% correction from the all-time highs versus our swing lows. So I'm going to be watching very carefully how we trade into this area from there I'll be watching the bearish reversal patterns and certainly we're thinking about a test of trendline support back down to the 41-11 area. On the basis if we can hold if we can get a print above the 42-21 that 161 extension that would suggest that we have a further upside to come and again I personally am viewing this as a bear market rally I don't believe that we have seen the lows in this market yet we possibly could have done but balanced probabilities from my perspective and being involved in markets for nearly 20 years now I would suggest that we've got more downside to come but we trade the the chart and the time frame that we're using and for me at the moment I'm remained bullish and really it would take a loss of the trendline support back down through 40-80 for me to start to think about getting bearish here so I'm looking for a test into this 41-20 area this high volume node and I'm going to be looking to engage on alongside targeting 42-20s as the next upside objective in this in this sequence now that's that similar idea here and that's that because we've been more bullish really than the the S&P and we have taken out this 161 extension so again this next high that we see here that I personally will be looking to fade into that monthly R1 daily range resistance and weekly range resistance so anything into that 3,500 area I'm going to be watching as long as we maintain bearish momentum divergence here I think we see a nice corrective move but again I still once we get that correction I'm going to be looking again to the long side so anything back down taking through this value area here at just below 13,000 anything into this trendline support that develops was low volume node here I'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns again to re-engage on the long side looking for another leg of upside to follow and again in terms of thinking about the downside for me we'd really have to take out this trendline support to suggest that we're going to trade lower and look at the value area high here 12,287 as the next area to test on the downside but for now paying attention to how we trade when we get into this projected ascending trendline resistance monthly R1 and the range resistance is there for the daily and weekly time frame. Dow Jones, YM, similar scenario really what I'm looking for here is a test into the 33,250 area and watching for bearish reversal patterns there this will complete a seven swing sequence 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 so from there as long as we maintain the momentum divergence here I'm looking for a corrected leg and what I've drawn there is actually a symmetry swing versus this last corrected phase there so if that develops from that target's load I'm going to target a test of the high volume node and back into the breakout point here at 31,830s there's going to be the downside objective there on that move the Russell also showing strength I'm looking for any move now into the 1950 area so as we maintain momentum divergence I'm watching the bearish reversal patterns and again then we're trading it from the short side looking initially for a move back into this volume area here 1884 and then the projected pitch for channel support at 1860. DAX so the trade that I shared last week of the week floor it's traded to target now we were looking for a gap fill here at the 13,783 we've got that gap fill so that sequence is complete now so we'll just remove that and we'll look at where the next opportunity is so what I'm looking for here will be any pullbacks now to find some support let's see where we're looking at so any pullbacks into 13,593 and then we're looking on the long side again looking for one more push higher here and what we're looking at then is a equality objective versus this swing low into this swing high and this swing low so that gives us 13,967 so I'm going to be watching as we trade into that area as long as we maintain momentum divergence which would bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side but I'm talking to move back down then into this 13,300 area and again from there watch then for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side and I think we're going to test up into 78.6th retracement and the trend channel resistance coming in 14,230 is my game plan now for the DAX, Nikkei straight has developed I've shared it in the trading view account so what I'm looking for here now as long as we maintain support at the 27,820 area I'm looking for a fifth wave extension up through the trend channel resistance however once we get there certainly if you're long this you want to be risk free at that stage but I'm ultimately looking for a move up into the pivot cluster here 28,785 up to 28,880 which would bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side and I think we're going to move back down into trend channel support at 27,150 moving to the dollar index so versus the swing high that we have in place at 107,33 I have a downside objective at 104,23 for the dollar index at this stage it would take a close back through that 107,35 to suggest this corrective phase is over but for now I'm working on the premise that we're going to see a double correction here I'm targeting we've got the value area low weekly projected range resistance 104,20 is the target now for this move to the downside and then from there I will be thinking about long positions again in the dollar looking for another move to the upside the next leg higher has a target for me anyway at 110 and if we trade into this 104,20 area as the equity indexes are making their next leg higher that would give some synchronicity in terms of correlation in the market for the equity indexes to top out in the near term dollar to bottom out in the near term and the dynamic to reverse neuro dollar again versus the swing low that we have in place here at the 10,097 we have a target quality objective 104,20 so that's what I'm looking for if we get into this area and then we'll be watching the bearish reversal patterns to reengage on the short side and have a downside target at 98 for the euro and that will coincide with the dollar index testing into that 110 area that I just mentioned any close back through the 100,90 will be a bearish development and then we'll be looking at short positions for the break of the prior cycle loads here and on route to that 98 test sterling dollar traded into our equality objective at the 120,285 you can see we've got a nice reaction there we're now looking to take out trend channel support the next downside objective here from sterling dollar is going to be a test of the high volume load 119 sorry value area low 119,770 and then I'll be looking for any pullbacks to find resistance like so and I'm looking for us to retest the prior cycle loads on route to an idea 115 in terms of sterling so nice reaction from the equality objective taking out the trend channel resistance we look for the next correction to stall out just below 121,70s and then that will be the next leg to the downside underway for sterling dollar dollar yen so we have we've got this initial decline here I'm looking for a three way corrected move to stall out into the high volume load 136,17s I'll be looking to engage on the short side the initial target is going to be a test of 130 as the next downside objective for the dollar yen so we'll see getting a bit of a pullback here now what I've looked for is a load to develop somewhere into that 132,40s to get that next leg of corrective upside before we take another move to the downside euro yen my target area here I was looking for euro yen to test this value area no don't know if we're even going to get that high now 137,20s was the area I was looking at for a rejection if we close acts or below 135,60s then this looks like a short now and we can look for another leg to the downside to complete the sequence here so I've been looking for a move into 132,60s before we see another corrective attempt higher in euro yen to test that value area load from below and then we look for another move to the downside in terms of euro yen sterling yen similar scenario here we trade into that low volume area and we are pulling back pretty hard obviously dire economic forecast out of the UK stay out from the Bank of England and so we are seeing some weakness here in terms of sterling across the board doesn't really the size size of this candle isn't really one that I would be looking to personally trade at this stage I'll wait for the next low to develop and then we'll look for a move a corrective move to the upside to play there isn't really an opportunity for me there at the moment was a yen testing the value area high so this one is going to give us something right so we're testing right into the value area high middle of the range so if we can close back through the 92 70s then I'm looking on the short side here and the target for this move is going to be 1933 so we'll see how this four hour candle closes but this could be a decent opportunity on the short side in the other end again looking for the caddy enter test into trend line resistance here and the approach objective versus the swing low one or two 80s maybe we do a double correction here now so when I say double what I'm talking about with something like this then get a move into here before the next leg to the downside in terms of the caddy and Aussie dollar so broken out of the bullish trend so at a minimum here what I'd be expecting now from the Aussie dollar that is a quality objective so let's see so I'd look here for the Aussie dollar to trade and break through the value area high here down and then use that as resistance and then we get that move then we get this move down into the equality objective and then we'll see from there if the bulls re-engage from another leg to the upside or do we have a more meaningful high in place we know that we've got that 66 40 as the weekly equality objective you can look back through the trading videos I've done a few about that if we get down through the 67 30s that's going to make this an impulsive move and then we'll be looking for a five-way extension down into that 66 40 weekly downside objective so we're watching the Aussie over coming sessions at a minimum what we'd look for now would be a break of this trend channel to encourage short positions and then we'll see how we trade if the market responds at the equality objective we've got the value area just below there if we break through there then my bet is that we are trading down to target the 66 40s on the downsides similar setup here in the Kiwi not as clean a trade for me at this stage I've got a lot of congestion here so I'm going to pass on that one I'd rather focus on the Aussie at this point gold this trade's working really nicely we haven't pulled back sufficiently to add to positions yet and this is one that I highlighted a couple of weeks ago in real time and is running a decent amount of upside at the moment so I'm looking for any pullbacks in gold now into the trend channel support to engage on the long sides adding to long positions to to continue to grind this out to the upside I think we've got a pretty decent tradeable low in place at the moment with gold and this is looking like we're going to see a five-wave sequence here so once that first wave completes then we're expecting a three-wave corrected move versus this impulse and then that should give us an at least another equal legs objective in terms of gold so let me just tell you give me a rough idea of what it is I'd be thinking so let's say we top out into the train channel resistance so that's going to be our first leg so even if we just think in terms of a minimum of a three-wave corrected move this is the type of structure I'd be thinking about actually I'm going to just get rid of this one now so let's extend this out so the minimum for me in terms of this trade now would be the quality objective up towards 1900 on the upside so there's plenty of scope as far as I can see at this stage for further upside in gold and I'm going to be updating that one through the trading view channel in coming sessions and I'll keep you posted on that silver similar scenario looking for a wave looking for a fifth wave it's complete here and then I'm going to be watching the three-wave pullbacks to engage on the long side in terms of silver and then we'll be looking for an equality objective once we've got that potential swing low in place again I'll keep updated on that through the trading view account nothing to do at the moment in crude oil but we are getting close I've got an equal in equality objective at the 86 dollar level and that's going to be one that I'm going to pay close attention to again I'll be looking to build a longer term swing position in crude there if once we test into that 86 area let me flip out to the daily here and I'll show you the setup so this is the bigger game plan for crude oil so here's our equality objective coincides with a nice little low volume node there so what I'm anticipating here with crude oil is we get this move into here and then at a minimum I look for a move up into the value area high almost 725 so really decent scope for a good position trade in terms of crude oil just got to sit tight and wait for that 86 test and then we'll watch the daily reversal patterns to engage on the long side in terms of crude oil again if you want to follow along I'll post the link for the trading view video updates so you can see how that one progresses and we'll finish up looking at bitcoin so bitcoin I'm looking for a move into this area here the value area high 22,140 from there I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side first target is going to be a test of the 25,000 level and then if we can get shower pullbacks in three-wave corrective moves then we can start to build hopefully to the upside the alternative scenario is we take out this trend channel support if we do then the weekly downside target is 12,185 but I'd anticipate that this stage given that we're in the dog days of summer now august tends to be a ranging type environment a lot of chop what I've been looking for is a bit back and forth here in terms of bitcoin before we get that next meaningful leg to the downside but that 12,185 level is really going to be key and one where I will be potentially looking to build a longer term position in bitcoin so that's the whistle-stop tour of the charts I'm looking at let me post a couple of links into the chat for you for those who want to follow along those who want to join the tick mill futures group and get my daily trade plan for the S&P 500 there's a link there you just request access and I'll I'll let you into that group and I'll leave you with the trading view counts you can you can follow along okay with with daily trade setups that I post normally about three to five sometimes depending upon the market action okay are there any questions equally if you don't have a question typing an n in the chat box is helpful or if you'd like me to take a look at a chart having covered you can just type the instrument into the chat and I will give you a view on that okay don't see any questions coming through at this stage so I'm going to wrap this session up here guys thanks for your time today I hope you found this useful and as always trade us plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much