 I think the proper word for PGA DFS this week would be weird, wonky wild maybe we'll go with one of those one of the W's will describe this week's Butterfield Bermuda championship because it is a strange field there are like 97 mile per hour winds on Bermuda so it's going to be a weird one we're going to break things down let you know which of these strange golfers we are targeting for this week let you know the impact of the wind and much more to get you said for some PGA DFS welcome on into the heat check fantasy pot. podcast powered by number fire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com joined here as always by Brandon can do lucky is the managing editor of number fire.com Brandon Bermuda championship coming up this week we've had like 63 withdrawals how you doing today. Yeah hard to keep up with with all that's going on I'm worried that I'm going to be talking up a golfer and he will have withdrawn and I just missed it within the flood of Rob Bolton withdrawal tweets I think he's up to like. 1415 yeah that's nuts yeah and I mean it sort of makes sense I think the the travel restrictions safety precautions are really strict for this week purses really low but hey you know. If you're if you're listening to this pod. You're probably in this field regardless. We're doing this pod so I mean. I'm into it. There are opportunities to you know build some DFS lineups make some bets so yeah it's not the most traditional field. But hey we got something to to to get going on Thursday for us. Yeah and we talked about this with the NFL like a bad slate is still a money making slate. I think for DFS it's actually better because if you do the research and dig into the non traditional names in the field you can actually like have a leg up so although it's a weird field it's kind of a fun field. Yeah so the 125 of the 128 because I think there are basically three big names here. If you count Christian Bzadenhout as a as a big name. Which it's I got the McNulty gift going on. Yeah if he but methods Patrick's a big name you know that that's good. We'll take that Patrick Reed is here is it full Patrick Reed we don't really know I guess but like you know we got some people out here. It should be kind of fun we're going to break things down here in just one second to get you set and let you know who these dudes are and why you should or should not use them in PGA DFS. But first a quick reminder that the number fired Daily Fantasy podcast feed is firing in all cylinders right now because NBA and NHL are back. So of course Tom Vecchio has you covered with both of those each weekday with the Daily ISO and the Daily Deak. We have our NFL podcast week seven recap already posted breaking down the big takeaways from injuries role changes the cheese weirdness and all that that is up as well. Our week eight preview will go up on Thursday and also record live on the things on YouTube page NASCAR and UFC on the number fired Daily Fantasy podcast feed as well. So make sure you are subscribed and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well. Let's dive in here to Port Royal Golf Course out in Reuda is 6000 yes 6 828 yards very short par 71. This is the third time they played this course we do some data here no shot link data but there is like raw data here. There are 132 golfers actually it's 130 now they've had a couple withdrawals and they exhausted all of the replacements the alternates so I think it's 130 now. Maybe it'll be no kind of that by the time we get to Thursday. But either way right now the top 65 plus ties make it after the first two rounds so right now exactly half would make it with the field size stays the same and you know we'll see how that goes the rest of the next couple of days. Okay so that's the layout here Brandon very short course what are the stats that has stood out at the past in Port Royal GC. Yeah average green sizes really short course shortest on the usual PG tour rotation it's about 500 yards shorter than your average par 71 or about 94% as long depending on your perspective. You know and I think the wind here is really going to drive a lot but it's also been pretty windy it seems like it'll it might be windier than in years past or as windy as. Which every year it was that finished I think last year was 15 under was the winning score the first year was 24 under so. Can play easy but also has that defense of heavy wins which makes sense being where being located where it is. So yeah in 2019 it was it was Brandon Todd who wanted 24 under. He beat Harry Higgs by four shots and Higgs beat the field by two shots so the 24 under probably a little bit misleading anyway so we're looking at maybe like. 15 under I think it's probably a fair number to get to across your four rounds to to get the win. With Brian Gay getting to that 1500 mark last year maybe even a little bit lower if the wins do projects or hit the projections on the high end. And if you do some. I mean. I do a lot of research that I probably don't need to do but I did the research and there's an inverse relationship with driving distance and the importance of or have a course distance and the importance of driving accuracy so basically the short of the course. The more quote unquote important driving accuracy can be which I think really probably just means. The golfers who have driving accuracy. Can still contend on shorter courses for the most part. And I think that's what we get here and we're going to talk about the wind a good bit and we got a strategize around the wind and I was kind of thinking about this. It makes sense for a key stat still to be driving accuracy even though you and I don't really like driving accuracy as a stat at least enough to make it a key stat because. Doesn't really tell you a whole lot about what else happened with the drive you could be bunting it down the fairway which these guys aren't. Hitting at 200 just to hit fairways I know that but you know if you're good enough to be on the PGA tour or in a PGA tour field. And you excel at hitting fairways but you're not long. You're probably like your overall skill set is probably that of like a bit of a shot maker and someone who can control the ball and be a little bit more accurate. So I do think that driving accuracy deserves though to be one of the key stats you look at but. Overall my key stats will be stroke skin approach stroke skin off the tee stroke driving accuracy stroke skin putting on Bermuda. And then as always just some birdie or better rate in there even though I don't expect this one to get much much past you know 15 under for the winning score. Yeah so I also have driving or fairways gained is one of my stats. I typically don't get there because I'll go with good drives game because you know like oh I want guys who can at least be okay in that regard but I think for this week it's kind of important because when you think about wind that's going to make it even tougher to hit fairways I feel like I don't know if that's just that could be fully anecdotal. But like it's going to make it's not going to make it easier to hit fairways I can guarantee that so I think that to me I am actually okay putting fairways gain in there whereas like it is a flawed staff for sure. It's kind of like scrambling like I know it's flawed and I'm not typically going to include it but like I think in this specific situation it does make a lot of sense not just because of the wind but also because of the way. The course sets up also had birdies are better gain in there too because I think that just in general it's a good DFS stat to have. But usually we will do weather at the end but I want to factor it in here because it's kind of a key discussion point for this week so let's talk about weather now and then we'll talk about the overall view of this event it's going to be windy very windy. There is a chance of rain Thursday more importantly wind speeds are projected at 30 miles per hour they decreased around 20 miles per hour throughout the day so slowly steadily going down on Friday wind speed start off around 15 miles per hour. They will slowly decrease throughout the day getting to around 10 miles per hour by the end of the day. So I think that if you're looking at like aggregate wind speed across all rounds there would be a slight edge for golfers team off later on Thursday because they're getting closer to 20 and 30 on Thursday and dealing with like a five mile per hour gap on Friday. But I think with the winds being this high and what they're being gusts and stuff like that stacking waves is fully in play like having a lineup where you skew heavily towards guys team off late Thursday than having another lineup where you skew heavily towards guys team off early Thursday. I would kind of take swipes and hope you get guys who catch a break with the wind because those can happen for sure. As far as weekend 15 mile per hour winds Saturday 20 on Sunday with a chance of rain. So it is kind of a key thing to know for this week that the wind is going to be very high. So Brandon what does it do for you from a DFS perspective how are you altering things to account for the fact that we're going to see a lot of wind this weekend. Yeah I don't usually factor in weather to a heavy degree just because you can guess wrong but especially in a field like this where there are no guarantees. They're just they're just aren't Matt Fitzpatrick is deservedly the betting favorite. He's the most likely winner according to my wind simulation model but he's like 7%. That's actually you know kind of high. It's not it's not as high as you know 10 to 1 where he's listed on Fandall sports book but you know with with this being an accuracy friendly course and a short course that just puts a lot of of these golfers in the mix and I know it's going to sound weird to say some of these names you've never really heard of or never even seen before. Have a chance to finish you know top 25. Like it's very much in the cards this week because of how the course plays because of the weak field there are no guarantees and with the wind injecting more variance into things. So, honestly, I'm trying to let popularity dictate what I do at the very top specifically with Matt Fitzpatrick compared to Christian Bezadenhote and Patrick Reed. But I really think it's a week where if you're playing multiple lineups stack stack by tea times on Thursday and hope you like you said catch the right catch the right wave. And I think that will naturally to like lower exposure levels per golfer which is probably good because I think just it's a higher variance event. We try to be as tight with our core as we can I think for this week though it's okay to be tweaked that a bit you know if you're like if you would typically go 60% Fitzpatrick maybe tweak that to 45 or so like don't go totally flat but like maybe just lower your typical threshold a bit to account for the fact that things may be pretty high variance for this week. Talking about golfers who fit the course well and who have done well here in the past in just one second. But first NHL fans season is back going with games going on all week. Fandals giving you the chance to get in on the action by opting in the NHL Parley insurance software. All you got to do is play say four plus four plus leg Parley at NHL games between now in November 2nd. If exactly one leg of your bet loses get a refund and site credit actually fund is $25 per day. Kick off the NHL season the right way but heading over to Fandals sportsbook and placing an NHL Parley must be 21 plus and present in Arizona Colorado Connecticut Iowa Illinois Indiana Michigan New Jersey Pennsylvania Tennessee Virginia or West Virginia refund issued as non withdrawal by site credit that expires in seven days max refund $25. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandual.com gambling problem call one hundred gambler visit fandual.com slash RG in Connecticut 888-789-7777 visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 109 with it for confidential help in Michigan 102707 117 in Tennessee call the red line at 1-889-979 in West Virginia 1-800-gambler.net or in Arizona call 100 next step or text next step to 533-4-2. Let's dive into history at this event at Port Royal GC once again they have been here twice in the past in 2019 and 2020. You're going to start things off with Denny McCarthy. McCarthy is a guy we talk about at times in terms of just being a short game relying dude. But hey, short game may matter more this week with it not being as long of a course. What do you see in McCarthy in the past at this course? Yeah, McCarthy's probably just, I mean, I'm sure he's, I don't know his career earnings are, but I'm sure it's quite good. But he's probably like a victim of just not having the like being almost as good as like the best golfers in the world but just not having quite the right skill set to play like peak golf on a lot of courses. If you put him in a course like this, I think he's very much in play and we've seen that from him. He's finished 15th and fourth at Port Royal in his career. So one of the few guys with, first of all, two starts here but also two good starts here. And according to Fantasy Nation, we don't have any, like we don't have any shot link data. So no stroke scan numbers from how guys finished well. But at least we do have, you know, fairways gained, greens and regulation gained at this course and McCarthy with his two strong finishes. He's ranked 13th among golfers who have data here in fairways gained and sixth in greens and regulation gained. So probably means he was hitting fairways and hitting the irons well. And we know what the putting can be from him. He's one of the best putters that we have on the PGA tour specifically on Bermuda. So like I think at the salary of 10,100, Denny McCarthy is a borderline core play. I know we talked about leaving our exposure levels a little bit lower this week, but I think McCarthy might be locked in for a bobble hat slot against you. I'm pretty high on him. So what do you see him with McCarthy? Not quite that high, but I do think that there is a lot of value in having like one really good skill this week because McCarthy is an outlier in terms of putting and the advantage you get in that regard where you're an outlier relative to a typical field, the advantage of being an outlier in a good sense in this field is even better. So I think that the overall thought process of getting to him is correct and that like he has a bankable skill that we know is going to be there against a regular field, but especially against this field. So I think that that that lines up well for McCarthy. He's probably going to make birdies on a course that's not as distance heavy. I just don't know if I'm necessarily get to him as like being a core play because there are guys in that same range. I will like a little bit more like it's not a lot of guys, but I think that there are other options there I might like. So maybe we can cook up a bed here. Can you name there because that was a pretty, pretty mild range from what I saw. I would do, I'll let you pick Scott Stallings or Russell Knox to give to you against my McCarthy. Yeah, I will give you Knox. Okay, so we have Russell Knox versus Danny McCarthy. Do you hear them as being massively separated? Like do you think that McCarthy is well above Knox? Not really. Okay. I just like what I see from him. And you know, again, it's, we don't usually dig into course history much, but I think that the fact that he's played here twice, finished well twice and has like the right profile to finish well here again. I might as well take a chance on him now because I probably won't plan the rest of the year. True, fair enough. Okay. So that's Danny McCarthy at 10-1 Knox is 9-8. And that is our first head to head of this podcast to talk about McCarthy having an outliers type skill that can benefit you more in this type of field. Ryan Armour has that as well. So I love about Ryan Armour as well. What he has done at this course, accuracy matters a lot and Armour has a lot of it. He's great proof of the value of accuracy here. He's finished eighth in each of the first two events at this course. He's gained an average of 1.2 fairways per round on the field according to Fantasy National. He's only plus 0.5 on greens and regulation per round, which likely means he was probably gaining some on the greens. Mute is not his best surface. That part is tougher to bank on for sure. But it's not like he's been bad in terms of permutaputting. The issue for Mute with Armour is the form. Once you adjust for field strength, he's at negative 0.12 true strokes gained on approach per round according to DataGolf. He's lost 1.2 strokes T to green in both events since the start of the swing season. So swing season hasn't been great to him. Approach play has not been what it was previously. Armour used to be a really good approach player. Hasn't quite been that recently. He's $9,700. Is the course fit enough to get you on Armour at that number? Yeah, the irons are not great. And again, if you use DataGolf's info, it adjusts for field strength, which is, I think, very, very, very important. But for me, you can bump up Armour anytime there's an accuracy friendly course. The good finishes here. So it's almost the same sort of philosophy where it's the two really good finishes. And Armour at this point, probably just the guy who plays courses that don't suit him quite as well as this one does. And so that's going to bring the data down. But there's kind of a difference where someone can just be in bad form and not really succeed on courses that fit them. And then there's these guys who are just probably constantly bogged down by playing courses that aren't quite meant for them. But they're still playing good golf. It's just hard for them because it's not their skill set. So for me, Armour is definitely in that conversation. And I had a feeling maybe you would say you liked him relative to McCarthy. And I would have denied that request for a bet because I like Armour enough. Interesting. So you have Armour above McCarthy after considering salary? No, I have it about equal. Okay. Yeah, not enough to bet. Okay. So Armour is someone I'll probably use in that range is because like that range is not, I think it's a little bit of a fall off in the upper and nine thousands. It's kind of there. But I would say Armour is firmly in consideration, despite the issues he's had with his approach play. And despite the fact that he's not long, he's still 35th and birdies are better gained the past 50 rounds, which is a pretty good endorsement of what he does outside of that. So I think that he definitely works in that tier. And I'll get there, despite, you know, having some reservations around the form, I still think that he's worthwhile in this specific field for this week. Let's move now to your second golfer and the defending champ here. You talked about Armour having two finishes that are good. Brian Gay has two finishes that are better. What have you seen with him at Bermuda in the past? Yeah, defending champ finished third in 2019. And, you know, unsurprisingly, nobody else has multiple top five finishes at Port Royal. Just again, hard to find, you know, two good results, let alone two great results. And, you know, so I mean, we're going to talk Brian Gay at a salary of 8800. Again, no shot link data, but we do have things like greens and regulation gained and Brian Gay has gained an average. That's hard to say. Brian Gay has gained an average of 1.0 greens per regulation per round here, which is the top 10 rate according to Fantasy National. He's fourth in fairways gained. So again, something clearly worked for him at this course. Now, the recent form is awful. He has no top 40 finishes since February and his irons are awful. Based on Fantasy Nationals like five and 10 events leading in to his results here, he's been worse. He was worse before his win leading in. So again, I think like we don't look at course history and say, you know what, like this guy's in horrible form, but he's played well here. Let's go there. I think this is the most likely week of the year where I would do that. Yeah, I'm probably not going to be able to get there myself because he's been so bad. But again, like maybe he just is like an amazing golfer who doesn't have like PGA tour level stuff at every PGA tour course, but has it at this kind of course. Yeah, that's a that's tough. Like you're right. He was worse than like I was specifically worried about the approach play, but his approach was hideous going to that one too. Man, those are bad numbers. Yeah, I guess the one counterpoint would be that like the thing that's kept because like the comparison there is his stroke scheme total entry in that event. And his stroke scheme total recently has been better because of the short game, but like yes, there's a good short game. So I don't know. I don't think I'm going to get there either. I think that what you're saying is correct, but I also agree that I'm not probably going to get there because there are other guys in that range I like. And I rather take swipe to them than banking on gay, having this like magical resurgence one skin and remuda. But like I think what you're saying is correct. And looking at the form comparison, I just I don't know if I get there with gay specifically the recent stuff really, really rough. Yeah, it's really bad. And he's not even hyper accurate. I have been in 25th percentile over the past 50 rounds and fairways gained. So like I would I be surprised if he finishes top 10? No. Am I going to play him probably not because he's trending up toward the top of the field already and fan share sports comms tags for the week. He's tied for six. I mean, it's early, but you would expect, you know, a value golfer coming off a win with two good finishes here amongst the field of a whole lot of unknowns. Right. Probably be like 15 20% maybe. So that's enough. We're all probably sit this one out. Let's talk about Russell Knox. We had talked about it before with the McCarthy bets. Let's go into him here. He finished 11th and 16th the past two trips here. But some of his peripheral numbers were good. I know shocker Russell Knox may have lost in strokes putting who could have predicted that. But let's talk about it. He gained an average of 1.9 fairways per round and 2.6 screens and regulation per round above the field. Both those ranks second among golfers in those fields or in this field for this week as well. And it makes sense because Knox ranks 10th in the field and fairways gained third and approached the past 50 rounds. The issue is that the short game stuff is not fluky. It's, it's, it's a thing. He ranks 88th and birdies are better game the past 50 rounds underneath and from you to putting. So Knox is like an old school heat check kind of play where the ball striking is good putting is bad. We used to feel great about that. Now we've come around and said, no, no, no. Like this is, this is not great. But like in this field, maybe being an outlier in terms of the ball striking is enough. What are your thoughts? What are your VODs and Russell Knox this week at 98? So I know I took a bet against Knox with someone who has like the inverse skill set with Danny McCarthy. What if we combine them? Let's do that. That's like Pete Tiger Woods, I think. Let's do it. Russell McCarthy is Pete Tiger Woods. You're already here first. But yeah, yeah, I feel like Russell McCarthy is a very different golfer than Denny Knox. But Russell McCarthy is not a golfer. Russell McCarthy is an acoustic rock star. I know it's contradictory as well. But like he does, he does play like traditional stuff. Like he does like do like poppy type stuff. But like his background is an acoustic and like he likes to do acoustic covers of his songs. That's Russell McCarthy. And what's Denny Knox? Denny Knox is actually a Sprint car driver. I can see that. You know, local dirt tracks. He's known rather than local dirt tracks. Yeah, Denny Knox. Local hero. They actually met once. Denny Knox and Russell McCarthy. Fun story. Good. Say Russell McCarthy's best song is actually based on the life of Denny. Wow. I love it. I'm in. All right. Slime you up for the movie. So Knox, 94th percentile and fairways gained good irons. We know, I mean, you laid it out here. There's a path to a really good finish. I have him kind of just, it's basically Reed Fitz, Bizet and Hote. And then like everyone else has like one to 2% win probability. Knox as well within that. So he would be someone I would be willing to play. The reason I prefer McCarthy is just, I think it just feels like this is one of the spots where he can shine. So I just am drawn to Denny McCarthy. Well, McCarthy's like, I don't know where his, his route to scoring has been more bankable than Knox's because McCarthy ranks 44th and birdies are better gain the past 50 rounds. Whereas Knox is 88th. So what McCarthy does works. And they both get a bump up due to the lack of distance at this course. I think that's kind of a wash. But I would say that McCarthy's route is probably more predictable than Knox's is, which may be stupid that I took the bet. But oh well, either way, both work this week. I mean, Russell, we'll talk about line movement, but Knox is shortened a lot. So yeah, I don't know if I could bet him. So that might be kind of weird, but it makes sense. You could do worse. Yeah, you could for sure. Let's have a current form here and talk about some guys at the top of the field. Because I think that the top of the field is pretty tough to figure out this week. We'll go through Matthew Fitzpatrick and other guys or Matt Fitzpatrick and guys later on. But let's start off with two guys in the upper range and Christian Bezaden who had me to Pereira two guys who talked about in the podcast, but like not as studs. So talking about Bezaden how first then we'll go through Pereira after that. I was going to talk more about the top three, but we can do that. Yeah, no, do that. Do that. I just think would you agree there's a clear top three and then like a big teardrop? I mean, it depends on read. Like what's your read on where he's at like now like physically? Probably fine. I mean, he's played. Okay. So it wasn't great, but I think a big three works on. Yeah. So like I have Matt Fitzpatrick at seven, seven percent to win. Bezaden how it at 5.6 read at five and then only sham is power at 3.2 is also above three. So like for me, it's a pretty clear tier. And I think what the salaries being what they are, most people will view them as the top tier as well. But I think we should rank them and maybe talk about whether they are worth jamming in or not because anytime we get a weak field and some better names. Historically, these guys have not been quite worth it, but it feels a little bit different because Matt Fitzpatrick, Bezaden how it and read aren't just like Brendan Todd at the top of a field and he feels way better. These guys I think are significantly better. My data has them significantly better over the past year with with field strength and recency adjustments. I have Fitzpatrick getting an average of 1.1 strokes per round on what would be the world average golfer. Bezaden how it at 0.97 and read at 0.95. And then nobody else is above a 0.55. So we're talking like almost a half stroke per round better than the rest of the even the next best in the field. So I do think these three guys stand out. Read did finish 68th the CJ cup after missing the cut at the Shriners. He's still coming back from being sick, but he's traveling to Bermuda. I've seen a post from him. He seems like excited to be there. You would kind of think he's good to go. And if he's at his like maybe not his peak, but like in Patrick Reed form, it's going to feel silly that we didn't just play Patrick Reed Fitzpatrick won his last start on the European tour. I think that will give him a lot of popularity, especially as betting favorite and the highest salary golfer and Bezaden how it somewhere in between again Reed the form not great fits coming off of a win on the European tour, which is probably about. Equal to like this field. Honestly, and Bezaden how it somewhere in between fifth at the BMW PGA championship on the European tour third at the corn very tour championship. His true strokes gained average over the past few months, according to data golf is the best in the field. So you could disagree with me that these are the top three with a pretty big jump over everyone else. If not, you can tell me that you think Mita Pereira is as good or better than some of these guys. So I would rank the top of the field. Fitz Reed, Bezaden how what do you think here? So I'm going to tell you about Mito and then we can loop that in. It is still early, but Mito seems like he's going to be like a ball striking beast, which is kind of funny. He's got 34 rounds of PGA tour data over on Fantasy National in that round that range. He ranks fourth in approach and 25th in fairways gained. That means he should do well at this course. But the putting is terrible. He is lost in five of a measured rounds. He has gained more than 0.7 strokes just once because the ball striking is so good though. Pereira still ranks 15th and birdies are better gained in this field. So I think that's kind of interesting for Mito. I think that if Patrick Reed were Patrick Reed, I would say that I'm going, you know, Reed like 1B with his Patrick 1A. I think based on what Reed has done, the first two events back post sickness, I'm pretty concerned and I'm kind of okay taking more of a wait-and-see approach. That could burn me because like we want to buy in before the bounce back. But I feel like if you were like neutral in those two events, I'd be more inclined to take a swipe. He's been actively, actively terrible. Those first two events back. So to me, I go if it's Patrick 1B, Zadenhow 2, and then I actually go Mito Pereira, number three over Patrick Reed. Am I stupid to not really want to be in on the Patrick Reed experience just yet? I mean, it could easily like he could easily just be working his way back. But I do think that with so many unknowns, like my simulations have him again at 5%. If he plays the golf he can play, it would be higher. But again, this is just for recency too. It waits recent rounds a lot more than rounds closer to a year ago. I couldn't really argue with you with Mito above anybody else in this top three because the early returns on his ball strike are good. He also ranked eighth in ball striking on the corn fairy tour, which is not the best computed stat, but it's the best we got. It takes your total driving, which is your rank in distance and accuracy. And then like the lower you are, the closer to the top you are, plus your greens and regulation gain, adds those together. And then it's the lowest of that. So it's better than nothing. And you're right that we should believe that Mito will be a good ball striker. I just don't know if the salary is low enough to avoid Patrick Reed. Okay, fair enough. I think that makes sense. So the big deviation here is where if you read, we both agree, that's Patrick and Pazadenhider above Mito, correct? Yeah. Can I get you a read Mito bet? Yeah, okay. I think that's a bad format for Reed if we're being fully honest here. Like Reed makes more sense from like a betting perspective or a DFS perspective. Like a head to head bets tough. There are, well, it's early, but there are some, I feel like there's going to be some buzz where I think Reed is going to try to go nuts so he can make the Ryder Cup team when it comes back around. Nothing cares about those things. I'm going to keep a very close eye on Patrick Reed and I'll probably bet him way more often than I should. Okay, fair enough. So the Reed redemption tour begins this week according to Brandon, whereas I'll take Mito and roll with him. Let's talk about some guys with, I guess actually one guy with a lower salary, Jason Duffner, and then I'll turn to another stud. Yeah. Duffner's 9000. I think he's pretty interesting this week personally. What are you seeing in the data with him? Recent finishes. Not really all I look at, but it's sometimes just easy to say where guys finished. 42nd at the Fortinet Championship, 24th at the Wyndham, 28th at the 3M Open, 26th at the Barbasol, 18th at the John Deere Classic. Those are pretty similar fields to what we get here. This one's probably worse statistically. I'll have to look at that later, but Duffner is still 88th percentile in fairways gained over the past 50 rounds according to Fantasy National. 83rd percentile in the long-term adjusted strokes gained at Tia Green. Very weak putter overall, which is not what you want typically. But played here last year, finished 58th, but as at least played here. Sounds like you're in on Duffner at the salary. I think he's one of the better value options this week as well. So what do you see him with Duffner? It's everything you said. I mean, like the ball striking is still fine. And especially for this course where it's not distance heavy, he's had experience here, which is not like I don't need that, but it doesn't hurt, especially for a value guy. And like we're looking for dudes who have like the ability to perform in this field. Duffner's performed well enough against relatively similar fields. So like he's more of a known. So I'd say like for a cash game, Duffner is not a lock, but like very close to it. He'd be one of the first guys I would turn to in that range. So I think that Duffner grades out really well. I don't really have a lot of like concerns. The putting should be a concern. And it is like a thing that's in my mind, but it's not a big enough concern to push me off. Kind of regards his format right now. Yeah. So like my stats only stuff has him in the 80th percentile for this field, which is pretty strong for the salary. He doesn't really separate from a win probability standpoint, but like nobody does. Right. So at the salary with the promising finishes, you know, within the field, I think that I'm totally fine with Duffner. Probably not one of my core place. You might be a little bit higher on him than I am. Not saying he's a core play for you, but I might not get. Yeah. But yeah, I think there's plenty here to get to go to Duffner. Duffner is 9000. Let's bump back up to the top range and talk about Chad Ramey. Ramey is 10 seven. He's one of the guys coming up here from the corn fairy tour, but the data down there is pretty interesting. His brand has mentioned that the corn fairy tour, believe a hair above the European tour. Correct. It's generally about equal, but actually kind of a little bit better sometimes. Yeah. So this data doesn't matter. Ramey finished the year, ranked second on the corn fairy tour in scoring average. He was between Will Zala Taurus and Peter Uline to Pereira there. Ramey was third in greens in regulation and fourth in driving accuracy. That should allow him to measure up well at this course. We're like, you know, we want some good ball striking there. Ramey ranked seventh in data golf. True strokes gained the past six months and that does account for the level of competition. So I'm pretty tempted by Chad Ramey at 10 seven. And I feel like, you know, we're talking about the top three studs. They do have high salaries, but if you go with Ramey as your number two, that does offset it a bit. So what's your thoughts on Chad Ramey this week? Like him a lot. He is probably my second place that I would, like if I'm looking process based, it would be Matt Fitzpatrick. Because I think he's a cut above even the rest of that top tier that I have. And then Ramey because of the salary being what it is. Ramey was 13th in ball striking on the corn fairy tour last season. I have him sixth in my long-term adjusted strokes gained data. I think he's a great wind bet. He will be in my head to head lineup against you. And he will be one of my favorite plays a week. Same across the board. Love to hear it. And he'll just be across off for the bobble hat. So, you know, it's fine. We might have a pretty similar lineup this week. Despite, yeah. So despite, look, you're going to ask me for my concluding or final thoughts. And I'm going to say probably stack stack tea times based on wind and get different. But still for a head to head, I'm going to try to play the best process plays. And that's going to include Ramey. So, yeah. I'd agree with that as well. So let's move now to the bookmaker odds for this event for the Butterfield Community Championship. Matt Fitzpatrick has mentioned the favorite over at Vangelo Sportsbook. He's 10 to 1. Christian Bzadenhout is in a tier of his own at 14 to 1. Fought by Patrick Reed at 18 to 1. Mito Pereira is 20 to 1. Sheamus Powers 22 to 1. Then there is another fall off down to 27. That's where you find Danny Willett and Hayden Buckley. Adam Hadwin and Chad Ramey are both 31 to 1. Fought by Guido Miliosi and Atayah Schwab. Rounded the top group here at 33 to 1. So you've talked about the win odds being flat. That is reflected in the sportsbook data here outside of Fitzpatrick. What does that do for you in terms of your optimal roster construction for this week? That makes me want to prioritize, again, prioritize Fitz and probably Reed, but also Ramey because the win equity from the upper 9,000 range is not drastically different than the low 9,000 range or for some guys even the upper 8,000 range. I think there are some value golfers in play. So usually weaker fields imply less of the salary cap going into the optimal lineup, which kind of then implies that the higher salary golfers may not be worth it. The highest salary golfers in these weaker fields typically don't perform as well as they do in tougher fields, but that's just because the best golfers in the tough fields are the superstars. But I do think that we've had fields where, I think Todd last year in this specific field when we were talking was like, he's like the guy, the top three, I think top four, even top five if you include Ramey, a bit better than that right now. So I'm still going to build around multiple studs. And I think Ramey is going to be a key part of that and I'll just take some value and be light on the 9,000 range, like the upper 9s and low 10s. So when you don't go Ramey, are you going to get into the top, like are you going to go and it's Patrick at all, or is that too top Ava for you? No, I'm saying I'm probably going to go fit, read Ramey and see what that leads me. Okay, fair enough. Yeah, I will probably not be that top heavy just because read is a little bit tougher, but like. But would you do, like, like bazaing out instead of read? No. Would you, would you do fits, Mito and Ramey? Mito is 11-6, right? Yeah. So like virtually the same thing, but somebody needs to fit more. I think because, like I think there's a bit of a drop off after 87 or so. That makes it tougher for me to feel great about like more of a top heavy lineup. So I feel like that's going to push me towards going with Ramey as my number two as opposed to my number three. Let's read and Ramey leaves me with 85-33 for my final three golfers. I think that's very doable. The question is just, I'm talking a big game for Patrick Reed, mostly from an upside standpoint. I took a head-to-head bet against you. Will I put him into our head-to-head? Maybe. If not, I would strongly just consider bazaing out there. And then kind of run 85-86 for my final three. There are some golfers in the seven, I'd be fine with. So this might honestly be my default lineup. Starting point. So you're more top heavy than me. I could see situations where I go like Vaughan Taylor, who's $7,900 and then go more top heavy, but I think that would be more the exception than the norm for me. So you're saying that's your default is the three with Ramey being your third, correct? Yeah, and Vaughan, a long time heat check. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. I mean, all distance course. All I'll say is this, you plug in Vaughan along with that, you have $8,900 left for your final two. That's a pretty that's pretty appealing to me because the upper eight's not a whole lot different than the low nines. And the low nines not a whole lot of different than the upper nines for me. So you're going to be a little more aggressive than the opposite of usual. Makes me uncomfortable. We'll see how that goes. But I get your thought process. Like maybe there's not a big fall off, but I feel like to me, there are fewer guys I'm comfortable with down there, I guess. Comfort is not what I'm going for. I'm going for comfort anywhere. I guess that was the wrong word to use. I'm trying to get the sort of max win equity and the only win equity that's like win equity over similar guys at similar salaries. The only place that comes from is the top three. Which golfers odds have shifted since things opened up yesterday? I mean, it's been kind of a mess with all the withdrawals, but Chad Ramey, our guy that we've been fans of for 40 years now. He's 29, so we've been fans of him. He just moved again. What's he now? I had him at 31. I copied and pasted. Yeah, he's 31. Sorry, he's 29 years old. 29 years. Sorry. It was close enough to be believed because I just pulled this before the show. He was 33 on Monday. He is not 31 as of Tuesday morning. Russell Knox, your boy, 50 to 37. David Lipsky, 50 to 41. Hank LeBiotta, our guy. 65 to 50. Beau Hosler, 80 to 60. Ray, 65 to 60. The Mr. Iron cover himself, but good reason for it. So, I respect it. Kramer Hickok, 80 to 65. Same for honor upon the Heery. Lee Hodges, Kurt Kidiyama, Grayson Sigg, all from 100 to 80. Adam Svensson, 120 to 80. What was that? Adam Svensson, 120 to 80. 100. LeBiotta moving, is that like a correction from an opening number that was longer than it should have been? Do you think? Because that's kind of what it feels like to me. Yeah, probably. Also, probably people probably read my wind simulation stuff and just got it down. Look at Brandon moving markets on Hank LeBiotta. What a thought leader in the space. I think Mr. Four straight cuts is what it is, but it's four of the past five. Four of the past. He's a player pick for me. But like, it's not it's not been ideal. No. But hey, the data all in. The data is good. Trust the process. Trust the process. In Hank, we trust which lower salary golfer speaking to Hank have odds to stand out to you. Yeah, just because we have that like, it's just a weird name. Some guys above 9000. LeBiotta is 50 to one now. He's 41 now. Sorry. I just looked. He moved again. He's down to 41. We've missed the LeBiotta train. I was going to make a win pick, but I can't now. Well, I recommended him at 65. Moving markets. Look at you getting that closing line value. Which other guys outside of Hank have have lower. I couldn't find his name. I was making sure. Yeah, I was like Lucas E. Bear, Nick Hardy, Peter Uline 55 to one, Aaron Ray, Bo Hossler, 60 to one Jason Duffner, honor on the hearing 65. Harry Hall 65. Nick Taylor, Austin Eck wrote brand Hage 70 to one. So not a whole lot of guys who are like low eights to sevens standing out. But again, these are decent win odds if you just trust the sportsbook odds, which like spoiler alert, if you run simulations and stuff, it's generally pretty tight with sportsbook odds anyway. So it's definitely a good starting place. But all these names in the low nines and upper eights, like it just makes it hard for me to want to sacrifice access to the studs. The few studs we do have to play the guys at like 97 who are basically as likely to win is these guys. Yeah, that's fair. And like maximizing win equity is good process in general. So I think that that thought process doesn't make sense. I just I don't know, it's tough tough for me to get there for sure. Let's move now to our player picks here for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship starting off at the high range. Brandon, who you got here this week based on the Sours over Fandall.com So we're cool now if we talk about the same golfers, but that was going to happen for our first three again. And I have happened last week, I think, or the week before that was a bit much. So it's a bad field to like I don't care. We can overlap who cares. Okay. Then I'll just I was going to talk about Patrick Reid, but I'll talk I'll talk Matt Fitzpatrick and you'll find about the good Patrick. Matt Fitzpatrick read there you go. You know, he's going to be popular almost to surely the most popular golfer in the field, but has the best case. I think of anyone to be a core play best long term golfer in my database after adjustments for recency and field strength. He's accurate with the driver. One of the best Bermuda putters we have on the PGA tour. Most likely winner. He's going to be in my head to headline up with you. I'm going to be overweight on him. So Fitzpatrick is an accurate birdie maker for some Bermuda. Like I don't want to overthink that. I feel like that's just like exactly what we're looking for here. The approach hasn't been great recently, but he's had some pop weeks there and I think that it's encouraging that he's still done well despite the approach to be middling because we know longer term he's not bad there, especially relative to this field. So he could spring back with the approach play. Everything else is good regardless. I think that Fitzpatrick for me is like the the number one guy by a significant margin to be in my head to head against you as well. So we're down to a 4v4. We've already said if it's Patrick and Rainey will both be in there. So we're at least a 4v4, at best a 4v4. Yeah. Well, it's going to be a 3v3, too, because we're both going to play Hank LeBioto. Oh yeah, there enough. Who else do you have down here? I would go with Chad Ramey, but I will pivot here. Okay. I'm going to go with Danny McCarthy. I like what I see from him at this course top 15's both years S tier. He gets an S tier ranking as a Bermuda putter. Absolutely 97th percentile there. Not the most accurate driver, but his ball striking relative to this field is about average, which is fine. The irons are a little bit weaker, but like the off the tee, the distance, the accuracy average, and then you're getting access to basically just one of, if not the best short game options in the field. So I feel good with McCarthy. He is very much in consideration for our head to head, and he would be if I didn't want to start with the three guys at the top. Like I can't get there. I can't get back up there. So he's probably going to be someone I got to miss out on, but he's in the consideration. So let's talk here about Raimi. We talked about the corn fairy tour stats earlier on, and those are good, and that doesn't matter. But in a limited sample, he's been getting on the PGA tour as well. The approach play has carried over from the corn fairy tour. He missed the cut of the Fortinet, but he gained 2.6 in approach across two rounds there. That's very good. Gained 2.2 at the Sanderson Farms, across four rounds there, gained four at the Shriners. The other aspects of this game haven't always been there in those events, but he's in the Shriners, and as mentioned before, he was accurate on the corn fairy tour as well. He's 10-7. It gives me a bit more balance after Fitzpatrick at the top, so I will take that and be okay with this. Me, Chad, Raimi is definitely a guy I'd like to get to and be overweight on for this week. I think he just makes a lot of sense. Anything you want to add on Raimi before moving on to the mid-range? We've seen the ball strike and carryover. He's gained an all three of his PGA tour starts. Perfect. What do you have in the mid-range? I have... Well, we're both going to talk Hank. I will then start with Alex Smalley. I think he's a strong value at 9200 again. He's kind of skipping mostly over the upper nines for me this week. 47th at the Shriners, 31st at the Sanderson Farms after a missed cut at the Fortinet. This is after two top 15 finishes on the corn fairy tour to end August and start September. Ultimately is 12th in Datagolf's true Strokes gain metric over the past six months. I think that he's not really going to get a whole lot of buzz, especially with Libiota right there. Yeah, I think that he's not too bad. Definitely looked into him at least to see if I want to get there and like, I think in that range after Libiota. So I might need two guys there. I think they'd be a consideration. Other guy having mid-range is Scott Stallings. Irons have been a bit wonky recently, but the longer-term data says that he's good there. So if he snaps back this week, could pay off a $9900. Stallings has lost an approach in five of the past six events, which ain't great. The one exception was the Fortinet gained 2.3 there, finished sixth, missed the cut in for the previous five. Despite those issues, he still ranks 20th in approach the past 50 rounds. He's also 12th and birdies are better gained. Stallings' putting has been on the rise of late. He's actually, he's still at bad range, which is kind of what you expect, but he's gained at least two strokes putting in six of the past 14 events. So he's $9900. I can live with that. I would say I probably put him below McCarthy and Knox. We talked to them before. Actually, I offered him as a head to head bet versus McCarty. So I should probably go Knox, Stallings, McCarthy as my rankings. We'll go with that. Sure. Yeah, I like him. I think that's who you offered me Stallings or Knox. That's why I took Knox. Just a little bit higher on Stallings. Okay. Fair enough. So I like him, but I just don't, I can't anticipate being in this range too much. Fair enough. Okay. So let's talk about Hank. What puts you on Hank? Everything. I think he'd be like second tier in this field if not for all the missed cuts recently. The data in those missed cuts has been pretty good. 33rd in data, true strokes gain T-degree in over the past 20 rounds. Sixth overall, he's been putting really well, but the long-term ball striking like T-degree is fine as well. So I think it's just a low salary here and good finishes at this course. Yeah. For me, it's the same thing. You know, the acres is not really there, but like he can put it on the fairways when he needs to. 15th and good drives gain, which means should do well this week. He's a beast everywhere else. So seems like there's a lot of betting interest in Lebiota and the salaries are set based on the opening odds, which means you're just getting value. So I think the Lebiota like you said probably the first guy you put into a cash game lineup after Fitzpatrick maybe that's probably those two you start there go from there. Yeah, the hard the hard part now is I want this top three plus Hank. So I'm a little bit strapped, but if that's the case the second like I think Fitz Raimi Hank is just a lock for a 3v3 again for each of us. Correct it is. Oh well, maybe we'll go 6v6 or more. We'll see. What do you have for the value plays this week? Bo Hoag, 8700 he's the best long term golfer in my database among all golfers below 9000 some of the best ball striking in the field, not just among like relative to the value plays. So you like that 97th percent time in greens regulation gained over the past 50 rounds and about a baseline putter on Bermuda greens. I looked into Hoag as well thought that he was interesting and considered him and would use him as well. So I'm a board of that one. My first one is Jason Duffner. It is swing season and we kind of want to use sexy names during swing season and Duffner is not sexy, but he does what we need. He ranked 17 that fairways gained 12th and approach 26 and birdies are better gained. You mentioned the fields he's played in. They're not very good obviously, but he grades out well even when you adjust for the field strength. So it seems like a steady asset at 9000 kind of hard to find. So I do like him quite a bit. We'll be there for sure. I'm higher on him than you are, but I'm fine with that personally based on the overall profile. Who else do you like here in the value range? Chase Seifert was kind of training up earlier in 2020 or 2021 don't don't think about 2020 too much. But the reason that I'm back in on him is that the salaries load at 8000 the fairways gain numbers are good, 92nd percentile 86 percentile and birdie are better rate gained, 82nd percentile and long-term adjusted approach. So if you can just hit fairways, hit the irons well and just tap some in. He's a plus putter on Bermuda not substantially so, but it's like the right profile for Seifert to get back on track. Yeah, I think that so he's $8000 Seifert a lot of green in the profile for sure. I think that makes sense. Would you use Vaughan Taylor at 799 he's the name I threw up before. Would you use him or no? Yeah, he's another to consider for me and my helper on Numberfire. Also Andrew Novak. Seifert's above him, correct? Seifert's a primary play here. Seifert, Taylor, Andrew Novak even we have some options which is why I'm willing to go hard at the top. I think that makes sense. My first or my second value play is Brian Steward in general. He's pretty rough off the tee, but most that is due to a lack of distance, which matters less this week. He actually leads the field and fairways gain the past 50 rounds which again is a flawed stat, but he's 27th in approach. The irons are very good too. Steward ran 40 second Bermuda putting, which I will certainly take. He has missed three cuts in the swing season, but hasn't been like totally off like he's been around roughly the number in those three missed cuts. So I'm fine going back to him here at $8700. I'm feeling pretty okay about that. One thing I'm like tinkering it with here because I've been, you know, filling out a bobble hat lineup while we've been building is am I willing to take a swipe at a Seifert, at a Taylor, someone like that in a cash game for tournaments? Fine. Totally okay. But like for a cash game, that's a different discussion. And based on what I have right now, I think I'm actually leaning towards doing that just because I don't really want to bank on like four dudes in the low 9000 range effectively. So I think that I think that I'm I'm not getting to you where I'm like using them to jam in Fitz, Ramey, Reed, you know, whatever. But I think I'm using them in order to avoid having too much exposure to non-hank Libio to guys in the low 9000 range. I think that's where I'm sitting right now. Yeah, I will I'm cool with it to have these guys in cash games because there's extra volatility for everyone this week based on the the weather and the fact that you know, you can't just be long off the tee and kind of build up an inherent like number of strokes gained against the field just because you're hitting it far. It's not really the type of course where you do that. Also, not not many of these guys are like long hitters anyway. So going to be pretty close going to be some names that we think are probably a little bit safer who are on the cut line and just kind of get the wrong edge of it. So, well, especially with like the wind being what it is, like, yeah, there's going to be some like, this is an example we've gone into a couple times, but like Justin Thomas, the Sony a couple years ago was like seven to one big time favorite, but there were massive wins in this cut like that stuff can happen. So back into what you're saying that can happen. Yeah, so with that I just find it might sound silly to be like why am I targeting the studs it's because they're the only three or four who I really feel like are separate from like yeah, I have the blob. Yeah, it's not quite it's like just a line if you start from like 11,000 it like it goes down like steadily, but like I don't think there's a whole lot of difference between some of it 10, 5 and 10, 3 or 10, 3 graph shoot. I don't know. I don't know, man. I'm out of my element here. I was trying to Yeah. Oh, so we're doing visuals, but we're on YouTube who cares that's true. Yeah. No one's ever listened to the podcast. So is on YouTube. Yeah, they want to see our your Timberwolves had they want to see my whatever the speed graph. Shoot. Yeah, that's how it works. Anyway, that is all that we have here for today. Once again, check out T times once they're posted they were not out when I checked earlier on the podcast also believe this event's going to lock earlier on Thursday than usual because it's in It's pretty far East so I would make sure you have your line upset before you Lay your head down for the night on Wednesday nights to make sure you have that locked before lock on Thursday morning and check tea times Account for the weather account for waves and stuff like that before you finish things up Make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast NBA NHL PGA UFC NASCAR and the NFL thing as well all in one place once you hit subscribe on Apple podcasts Spotify stitcher Google podcast whatever it may be hit subscribe and leave a rating and review as well Brandon if people have questions for you on Twitter, where can they find you there? They might ask me if we're doing win picks. Oh, man I was gonna I was I was like I was trying to get I have the rundown on the side thing here Yeah, like I realized I saw on player picks I'm gonna take it down to do in the intro and then I forgot to do win picks Well, I thought I'd get like a second, but you just were going at it. Yeah, man. Like I don't know So, I mean you did the you but you did all that now it's out of the way And we just get to do win picks and then I'll save my Twitter handle and we leave you're right okay, who you got um, I'm gonna go Patrick Reed at 18 to one still and It was gonna be Hank at 65, but now 41 is a bit much Um What's Molly now I'm going rainy by the way. Yeah, I was gonna do Rami to We can both do that time. Yeah, I think Rami's yeah, Rami's my top pick Okay, but I think Smalley as well Bo Hogue would also be in consideration But I have you know win simulations up on it number fire calm that you can check out This is you want Rami and Reed is your official picks. Yep. I'm gonna go Rami and You know, how much do I want to regret this? Yeah, he's a consideration me to prayer as a consideration for me This is really great audio as I him and ha him and ha him and ha him and ha Man, let's go Let's go Mito Rami 20 at 20. Yeah, Rami's 31 to 1 Reed is 18 to 1 Mito 20 to 1 or a Vandal sportsbook. We probably both would have gone hang caddy not short. You're correct. Yeah, absolutely Okay, would you've gone in at 50 to 1 or just 65? I was considering I'm at 50 um, yeah, I Think that would still be in play. I'd have to check the the value there, but um So if you hang at 50 on on Libiota at a different book You probably won't if I had to guess but like if you can maybe take a swipe there I think I think I think Fandall had it Easily the the longest odds when he opened. Let's happen a couple times. So yeah Check it to see if it's there, but based on the current odds can't quite get to Hank That is all that we have Brandon. What is your Twitter handle for the good people out there? At good old 13 GD. You LA 1 3. Thank you for reminding me to win picks I appreciate that because imagine paying attention to the own the rundown that you made who could possibly do that I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fandall podcast network at Fandall podcast big Thank you to ever for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your lineups for the Butterfield bring you to championship Good luck with the wind. We'll talk to you once again next week. This is about the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire