 This is covering the spread. Here are your hosts Jim Sonnes and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fan dual podcast network at numberfire.com where we are getting said for week number two in the NFL and discussing Any big takeaways we saw from week number one with Edward E. Gross of TVG's more ways to win My name is Jim Sonnes. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com Joined here as always by Ed Fang. You can find his work over at thepowerrank.com Ed We got a week of the NFL in the books, but we also now have Big 10 football coming up at the end of October How you doing? I'm doing well. I think it's an interesting decision by the Big 10 to come back. I'm hopeful that they can get it done I think it's exciting for all the fans and me as a fan definitely is excited about it But it's it's a really interesting situation when you look at, you know, how many games have been postponed already During the college football season, you know, only 50 teams have played um And there's been a lot of postponements. So, you know, the covet is on these campuses Um, if the covet is on the university of michigan's campus is going to spread because I keep seeing a lot of pickup basketball games around campus So, yeah, we'll we'll see how it goes. I will say that I'm in syracuse. So I'm by a college campus too and This could be because new york's laws are fairly strict about masks, but they've been doing a decent job they got a Fairly scathing letter from the university president about parties and stuff like that But like when you drive around like they're doing a pretty good job of being masked up So kudos to them, you know kids taking things seriously You'd like to see that and I agree that i'm skeptical about the big 10 the one thing that I think is good is the testing plan where they'll be testing not just football athletes, but all athletes Every day it sounds like and and doing that. I think that's a positive so The big 10 from a communication perspective really bungled things like a lack of transparency made things a lot more of a headache for themselves Then he needed to however, like I don't think They did things necessarily wrong like postponing until you had better testing That's the way things should go. So Criticize the big 10 for a lack of communication. I don't think we should criticize them for Waiting for better testing because better testing is something you talked about in like march Like how the importance of testing if we want to get back to normal and they waited until we got better testing and reacted to that so Criticize the communication. I don't think the execution is as big of an error there Sure, I mean the only thing I mean the problem that I see is like, you know, I mean, there's there's a decent chance that A conference like a big 12 stops before the the big 10 starts, right? So I don't know if you heard but Lincoln Riley said Oklahoma was really lucky to play. They're not releasing any numbers about covid cases, but he did say that Uh, they were lucky to play and someone asked him if they had three positive tests and he kind of laughed at that As a number too small, you know, and that was a game that actually happened, right? This is not like a byu game that got cancelled. This is not like the tcu that got cancelled and you know a number of other ones So You know the acc has said they're going to march on as long as they have eight out of 15 teams So like a simple majority Works in that situation Um, so it was also kind of jarring to have this big 10 announcement come the day after Ed Orgeron talked about how most of the lsu players had had it, which is like It's like, uh, there was like this this meme on twitter of like weird flex, but okay Like that was the most weird flex but okay type thing Like I know he wasn't trying to like brag, but it came off Like it came off so wild that like we're kind of speaking nonchalantly about a literal pandemic and that was like The the juxtaposition of that with big 10 coming back was It caught my attention. I'll say I mean you've you've heard of herd immunity. They they tried it out at lsu, right? So apparently we're are trying it out. I don't remember what the most recent numbers were. I remember there was 30 They're not releasing public numbers Yeah, so that doesn't really help either, right, right, so you we can't even fact check it be like, oh like When he says most What does that mean? We can't check it. So, uh, I mean the big 10 is going to be publishing numbers It seems like or they have thresholds to where Uh games get postponed. I'm happy about that, but like We'll see. Um, I'm hopeful but not, you know, it's not it's not a sure thing by any means just yet And then you also think about a timeline of nine conference games in nine weeks There's no wiggle room There's no wiggle room because I understand you want to be in the college football playoff And and you have a team in ohio state that projects to be there and and I get that but And I'm sure they figured out the contingencies of when, you know, inevitable cancellations do happen, right, but I don't know and then it's also just, you know All my algorithms are so screwed with the sec in the big tent like only playing conference games It's like I have to run the numbers separate for those conferences right in order to uh, you know To to add some of that data. So That annoys me as well Bowl season is going to be fun for you assuming it comes No, bowl season is going to stink. I need oh no, that's what I was being very very very aggressively sarcastic for you No, because like that that's what I do I can't restrain the schedule and those three out of conference games mean a lot. Yeah, and uh, yeah, yeah Well, good luck But you know, it's going to force me to look at like how these conference ratings bounce around from season to season Sure And if it's a pointer to yeah, so be it Yeah, you know Because then I'll just go with the the preseason averages and Have a wiggle room of a pointer too Well, we shall see big tent football Just around the corner we think and we'll see how that goes coming up in just a bit our guest for today Is Edward e-gross you can find him on twitter at ed with sports You can also find him on tvg's more ways to win every week. He is an adjunct professor at smu So we'll talk about what things are like on a college campus from a teaching perspective as he is doing that And we're also going to preview week number two In the nfl discuss any big takeaways edward had from week number one and get you set for edwards favorite bets in week number two Do not forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are here weekly as always. Maybe we'll have to get some college football podcast back on It's something college football solders on so we'll see about that down the row But make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and if you like what you hear Leave us a rating and review as well before we get to edward. We got to go back to last week We had jj. Zachary sonan to talk about week number one. We'll go back through that and then dive into week two Covering the past So last week you're uncovering the spread we had jj. Zachary sonan. You can find him on twitter at late round qb He is the editor-in-chief of number fire and fan duel He talked about that thursday night game between the chiefs and the texans and a tough p for jj Because he wanted the over on 54 and a half points and Tough way to lose here because the game was at 51 points. The chiefs were on the goal line And they got stuffed. They could have gone for a touchdown to go up three scores But there were just 30 seconds left. So you're not expecting the texans to overcome it Two score deaths in that time So they did kick the field goal finished at exactly 54 points the bookmakers nailed that one Tough way to open the year there jj got good closing line value in the buck's saint's game He wanted the under on 49 and a half and he wanted the saints minus three and a half The total did drop to 48 at close and the saints were four point favorites So good value in both directions and jj did nail the spread the saints obviously won that game The game did go over the total thanks in part to a pick six there jj had the over on Cardinals 49ers at 48 and a half that one finished at 44 So under did hit there and then he leaned uh, he had the over on cowboys rams at 51 and a half Cowboys had injuries on the offensive line in game. So That one did finish at 37 jj was right overall in Offense being the lean for the week. He just happened to pick three of the games that that that did go under. So, uh Good overall thought process just a bad luck on jj's part there I also had a bit of a mixed bag last week The first bet I mentioned was panthers raiders over 46 and a half that one closed at 48 So did go up a point and a half that one went over the total pretty easily 64 total points there So a win the other though was seahawks falcons I doubted that the seahawks would unleash their very talented quarterback and They proved me wrong uh seahawks let rust cook and it blew up 63 total points So one for one or one for two on my end to open the season But ed a crazy week of football where we did see like jj predicted a lot of points scored pretty much across the board Yeah, for sure and uh, we'll probably continue to see that a little bit until the defenses get some reps under them And uh, it'll be interesting to see how that uh levels out. Yeah, I believe I saw a stat today I'm pretty sure it was the most touchdowns in one week in NFL history. So Things clearly we're cooking. Uh, that's for sure But um, we'll see how things play out in week number two We'll preview that in just one second But first fandal is always giving users a chance at glory in a big payday and the ringer's mega contest Is the latest way they are giving you more ways to win It's easy just make five picks against the spread Including one double bound every week the top 100 users at the end of the season will compete for $25,000 in prizes during the playoffs The best part it is free to enter week one is already in the books So what are you waiting for to enter for free visit play free dot fandall dot com slash the ringer that is play free Dot fandall dot com slash the ringer if you go to fandall. There is also a banner in the lobby That's probably easier than the the url But it is play free dot fandall dot com slash the ringer eligibility restrictions apply Let's bring it edward egros now again find him on twitter at ed with sports You can find him on tvg's more ways to win and check him uh professing over at smu We're gonna preview week number two and take a look back at the big takeaways from week one Covering the present Let's bring edward egros back into covering the spread. It's been a while edward. How you doing? I know it's been it's been months at this point It has been months and that's about how long it took to grow the beard So if there's any indicator as to how long it's been since we have uh convened There you go So if you ever needed an incentive to check out covering the spread on the fandall youtube page edward has given it to you via his beard Which you can see live and in person over on the fandall youtube page Uh, but also edward it's nice to have you on here because we have not talked to a college professor Since we started doing you know these podcasts after the the covet 19 pandemic began What have things been like for you at smu with all the the calamity going on? Well, it has been interesting to say the least I think one of the the challenges that uh smu has faced and a lot of colleges has faced is basically There is Major economic incentive having students on campus. No doubt about it and that's I think that's fair to say no matter Who you're working for I think my my Observation has been that you know Some classes have have basically been adjusted to where Half the class is in person half the class is remote and then you go vice versa And there have been some real technological issues. Uh, I have no problem admitting that In terms of trying to get everyone on the same page keeping discussions dynamic those kinds of things and so Put put the danger of the virus to one side and just think about the logistics involved within Having some students take things remotely and then their lives are sort of upside down Whatever a roommate has a positive test then they have to quarantine for 14 days Or they know of a situation where a friend of theirs or a family member of theirs gets the virus and they may not be In in greatest shape and it's one of those things where it It constantly feels like my head is on a swivel when it comes to Just trying to keep track of what everybody is trying to do and make sure that assignments are turned in on Turned in on time and that if you're explaining something that maybe you have to repeat yourself a couple of times because Everyone is dealing with a lot of distractions around them. No doubt about it and there are things that they can't control and so You know psychologically it's been quite the challenge Uh, but at the same time it's also uh, Great to have that attempt at normalcy Which has been tough in a lot of ways and so uh in many respects I think SMU has done a great job in terms of trying to transition back to normal But they've been enduring the same challenges that that most every college has and It's not going to be perfect. No no doubt about that and at least we we have opportunities to Sit down with the students And if someone really needs to talk that you know make yourself available and sort of figure this stuff out together as it were For sure And the other advantage of having you on your edward is that you are on a college campus Which means that we had the big news with the big 10 today coming back october 23rd and 24th Based on what you've seen at SMU and obviously the testing the big 10s promising to do does change things for sure But are you optimistic we can actually make this thing work given what you've seen being on a college campus? Honestly, I I'm probably more pessimistic than anything else I think first off if you just look at the number of games that have had to be canceled or postponed In just this month alone. We just started college football a couple of weeks ago And we've had several attempts that have gone awry You know SMU for instance They were to play tcu battle the iron skillet just last weekend that game got canceled because there's been an outbreak of Covid on the tcu campus and yes, they're trying to make sure that they're prepared for big big 12 play And so we all have priorities. I get that But at the same time it doesn't take much For a school to deal with some serious problems And then that affects the opponent and then what happens in terms of an overall resume There are teams in the big 10 that are fighting for a playoff spot fighting for a conference championship Is the resume going to be too small for them to have a legitimate chance now? One thing I will say that I think is great that the big 10 is doing is that they're not allowing fans of games They pretty much said from the get-go No place no school will have fans and I think that is great when it comes to limiting Those worst-case scenarios. I wish other conferences would have said that uh From the beginning But at least the big 10 is in some ways going about it the right way in terms of acquiring information The thing about heart conditions and COVID. I think they did some more research into that and looks like they did their due diligence Which is great to see. I have my doubts I wish that things could be postponed a little bit in terms of the playoff committee championships things like that but There are some things the big 10 is doing very very well in terms of due diligence not having fans those kinds of Things but at the same time i'm still just pessimistic in general because we've seen a lot of You know games postpone cancel things like that that make me concerned Yeah, absolutely. So I think it's uh, it's still touch and go to say the least testing begins the big 10 at the end of september So we will see how things go then but let's dive into the nfl now edward The reason we have you here first day because we finally got some data Well, we have one week of playing the books. You get to play with things once again It's great in these new environments with either no fans or very few fans Looking at the league as a whole here, edward. Are there any big league-wide takeaways you had from what you saw on week number one First off, I would like to have uh yours and ed's permission to talk nerdy to begin do it Please absolutely talk nerdy to me. Let's do it. We need to update or win probability models That's what we need to do That's that's the biggest takeaway that I got from week one and i'm really serious about it because I I'm very much a disciple of a piece of work that came out at slone several years ago from brian skinner where he talked about the underdog theory and basically it's about If you are trailing in a sporting event football basketball, whatever You have to take on more risk to catch up, especially if you are an underdog going into it So what does this mean in terms of football passing a good bit more? No huddle up tempo higher average depth of target perhaps and what I worry in terms of building our win probability models is that we just assume that everybody is going to play the same way from beginning to end and Coaches are getting smarter coordinators and play callers are getting a lot smarter when it comes to realizing that that's just not Going to work you will have to take on more risk If you are trailing and perhaps if you are even an underdog and you're trying to win a football game Let's take the bears lions game for instance. I looked up a couple of win probability models We're about five minutes to go lions were up 10 third and 17 for them I believe they were in chicago territory at that point and a couple of models that I saw said 97 to 98 percent of the time the lions are going to win this football game and they didn't And this was one of a couple of games where an underdog stormed back and stormed back and won And just the early slate alone and I thought to myself, you know what 97 and 98 percent That's not intuitive that doesn't sound right to me And as as someone who embraces the data loves modeling all that stuff as you guys know Still though there has to be a little bit of intuition involved in terms of looking at results and going, okay Does this makes sense does this pass the laugh test? And I think a lot of win probability models have not done that if the three of us put our heads together we can come up with At least 20 games out of a thousand where a dog won in similar situations like the bears ultimately did Detroit secondary decimated with hamstring injuries You know all these things are important not just in terms of updating win probability models But especially if you're going to do in-game betting to me, that's huge because No team in essence is out of it unless you're dealing with the 31st or 32nd best offense in football No team is out of it and those are opportunities in terms of in-game betting to find Major dogs and believe hey an injury here An interception there all of a sudden they're back into it Look at look at even offenses that that aren't maybe so so hot right now like the eagles for instance They play a lot of 12 personnel and 12 personnel is you know a little bit revolutionary It's sort of that next step as it were that a lot of offenses are embracing and in large part It it maybe hasn't transpired in terms of you know epa per drop back, but They they've won games they didn't win week one, but they won the division last year So to me if we start believing that no lead is safe I think we'll have a better idea as far as how football is actually supposed to function in late game situations Yeah, I mean I think the part of that that's most interesting is is potentially the play calling right like if you're throwing it deeper when you're down Um That's something that can mess with those models. I don't know. I mean I think intuitively I think those things are like I mean you can obviously make tweaks to do it better, but like they got to be within a couple percentage points I don't know what what the chicago game was Uh what the score was or what the time was when it said 98 percent And obviously I'm almost certain the model is not going to consider any type of defensive back injuries that happened during the game Of course Yeah, no, you're absolutely right um But I think also too if you're dealing with like normal distribution sometimes the tails are where things get wonky and I think that's probably my point is that yeah Your your mean as it were is probably fine But when you're dealing with those extremes when you're talking 97 98 percent It it should be at almost absolute certainty and it feels like we're getting more and more Situations where that's not the case Obviously there are extenuating factors when it comes to win probability models But still There there may be adjustments that can be made to where the tails are a little more accurate Yeah, for sure, you know, we've had ed miller on the show. He he has some models that uh that are part of this company Uh, be interesting to ask him about that Yeah, absolutely. I just looked at uh number fires model. We had a 97 2 so Maybe we'll have to get Edward over here to check those out as well. Uh, let's talk about a specific tagging. It's fine. Yeah Uh, let's talk about things on a team level basis because we have the league wide data as you alluded to with play calling changes But we can also get that get numbers from individual teams But also some numbers can be deceptive in such a small sample. So edward Are there any stickier numbers from from one game you can look at to alter your the way you view various teams Well, in general, I really am not paying much attention to defensive numbers and typically I don't anyway Because they're not that sticky from from one season to the next and perhaps not even one game to the next Sometimes, you know, you look at You know, von miller for instance, uh, if you were playing then obviously he's a phenomenal linebacker and you know Not taking anything away from him. It's just defenses. It's tougher to be successful from from one game to the next And I especially think given what we saw In week one and how things were unfolding in terms of the off season with the pandemic. Um, I think it was uh JJ Zacharyson, who you know was very adamant saying no, this is going to favor offenses in week one and he turned out to be right and Especially when it comes to the gambling market, uh, we saw many more overs than we did unders And I think that's in large part because those offenses with continuity same quarterback Pretty much the same offensive line pretty much the same weapons We saw good things for them like the saints with with drew breeze And even though he didn't have michael thomas for part of that time Drew breeze was still very much effective. Uh, alvin camara was still effective. So When I look at that I go, okay, the saints should be just fine It doesn't matter that they didn't have a preseason to get things going But on the other side with tampa bay, tom brady will need some time. Um, it did seem At least at a couple of situations that maybe he and the receivers were not on the same page And maybe in a preseason would have helped as far as that's concerned Um, it also certainly seemed like maybe we shouldn't be so hard on james wenson in terms of why had so many perceptions Maybe the system maybe the receivers not being on the same page with wenson Maybe that has something to do with it But that being said when it comes to my own modeling and picks that i'm making If an offense has some continuity then I have no qualms at all bringing in 2019 Maybe even 2018 numbers in terms of figuring out where the numbers should exist But if you're dealing with something that's brand new Definitely i'd say give it a week or two before you start to to really hone in on Their epa numbers for instance and then proceeding Sounds good. Let's dive into some games. Uh, first one. We got rams at eagles. Uh rams are uh one and a half point favorites Total at 46 and a half You know eagles struggled week one Um Against uh, you know what my model has one as one of the against a team that my model has one of the as one of the Two worst teams in the nfl Rams obviously did pretty well against alice on sunday night. What are you thinking about this game? Well, first off, I know ed that the family conversations that you have Late in the evenings involved play action passing. I know you get the whole family together Maybe even a camera to yeah recorder on youtube. Yeah Yeah, I like it's it's how you live your life and and I applaud that But the the thing is play action passing is important and it doesn't matter How effective the running game is play action passing in a vacuum is what is important in all of this and Especially when when you look at eagles and rams Both teams both offenses certainly understand that in fact last year Golf and wence were first and second respectively in play action pass attempts this year small sample size obviously but golf is fifth and wence's ninth And I think that eventually that will go back up a little bit now Maybe some offenses have figured out the importance of play action passing like the bills for instance and josh allen So it's certainly possible that they may not get to one and two this year But I think they are going to stay in the top eight. I think that's safe to say So I think ultimately they're going to get theirs in certain situations But here's the interesting thing though la started to use more 12 personnel beginning in week 11 And their epa per play ranked 16th during that time frame, which is average half the team better half the team worse And last week they pretty much stayed right there against that cowboys defense Eagles however over these last several games. They've been dead last And there are enough injuries with philly and enough guys who are certainly not a hundred percent But are at least playing to where I feel like the movement within the line is exactly how it should be behavior Yeah, well it opened at minus two and a half the equals two and a half point favorites Now the rams are favored by one and a half I think that's very interesting given that lane johnson sounds like he thinks he's going to play Uh, but with the play action numbers Are you thinking an over on this game or do you have any reads on either the spread or the total here? I I do think the over is is fair game here What's what's interesting to me is that it with with a couple of models that I've seen That it looks like a rams runaway, but it is a west coast team traveling to the east for a one pm kickoff so Right away. I'm going to take it with a grain of salt But you know, even though Some I think one model I even had uh said that the rams might win by a couple of touchdowns, which seems a little insane to me But it could happen. I mean, you know, we have range back up go off So it's not what it's within the realm of possibilities But I do think given that it's one and a half. I don't have a problem buying it to two and a half Sort of keeping out a magic number and keeping it simple I don't have an issue with that one thing though that I think is important here Is that and I was a bit surprised to see this at the cowboys Last week ran the fastest offensive pace and all of football and Now the rams are going to face an eagle's offense that will slow it down a good bit more They're more middle of the road And so that could very much limit things by a drive or two as far as uh, you know la scoring is concerned So I think the over is still very much in play But I don't think it's going to be anything ridiculous And I think uh, you know a field goal win for the rams would be about right Alrighty, let's move on here to the ravens at the Texans The Sean Watson versus Lamar Jackson didn't quite live up to the billing last year But we get it once again this year this time over in houston ravens seven point favorites total here is up to 52 now The Texans offense seemed to struggle in week one with no deandre hopkins Was there anything you saw there that made you readjust your priors on this houston team in a very new context With one of their the best receivers in football now gone You know, I don't want to sound like a houston apologist here But I actually think the Texans are going about a lot of this the right way Uh, when you look at epa cpoe composite Sean Watson was 14th after week one against a good secondary in canta city I don't think they struggled very much. I think david johnson was was fairly dynamic in terms of what he was able to do I think this offense, you know, even against a Phenomenal team in canta city they still were about above average I think part of the issue that I think we're going to see and yes I I know the nfl sort of embraces parodies so to speak but to me This is canza city and this is baltimore and everyone else is just living in that world right now And I think that's why you're going to see some teams like houston for instance start out o and two And yet they have some pretty decent offenses I think one of the things that I I look at in terms of that that offseason move Trading away deandre hopkins. He was going to be expensive So that was going to be an issue in terms of payroll You know david johnson. I know running back. We all agree about You know how we feel about running backs that that's fine But I also believe that in terms of if you're building a passing attack I actually think it's better to have a lot of one b options Instead of a one a and a lot of two or three options And I think that's what houston is trying to pull off I think if they get to if they get the ball two guys like brandon cooks and randall cob a little bit more Frequently and make a situation where it's not always going to will fuller because you know, there are entry concerns there But if they are able to diversify the portfolio so to speak I actually think houston can be a pretty decent team Yeah, I think that that's that's possible ed talked about liking houston overall last week And it's you kind of have to take these lumps like this is the schedule. They were given this is going to happen But long term I agree like, you know, uh, they mean basically they had to make choice Do you pay deandre hopkins or do you pay larry me tunsel? I might pay larry me tunsel personally, but uh, you know, that might be egregious But I just I think tunsel is very good So ravens blasted the browns in week one They're seven point road favorites. Are you laying the seven points here or what's your read on this game? Am I talking out of both sides of my mouth by saying such good things about houston? But then also saying that the ravens will definitely the ravens are good. You're fine Yes Like I said, you have you have chiefs ravens one two however you want to look at it And then everybody else and the drop off to me is a rather substantial I think the saints could very well jump back into things By the way, I was going to say too that after houston loses that is a great time to go to sportsbook.fandal.com And basically say Hey, houston could still win the afc south, uh, that's probably going to be your value bet as far as that's concerned I do love the titans, but wait till they lose this game and You know the math nerds will say, how do you come back from o2? You know houston could do it the afc south is tricky, but as far as this game is concerned Yeah, lemar jackson is unbelievable. I mean he's playing at an mvp calorie level again And was fascinating to me. He had the he felt the third highest pressure rate of any quarterback last week at 31 Still went nine of 10 on throws of 10 plus yards And then he finished for the most complete air yards per completion At 10.1 yards and I look at this and I go Why are we not embracing lemar jackson more as a passer? This guy in man coverage has been unbelievable And his issue is that, you know, hollywood brown has not been on the field very much There maybe isn't too many reliable targets beyond mark angers, but can lemar jackson sling it absolutely? He can he is an incredibly dynamic quarterback and we need to embrace him as one of the great stars in the national football league So I look at this and I go Yeah, the ravens can definitely cover seven if this line moves too much though, then I might flip to houston I think I've got it at eight right now In terms of where I feel comfortable if it gets to eight and a half then i'm going the other way, but at seven I feel great about baltimore Yeah, no, my numbers are ravens by uh about seven and a half This was, you know, they they moved pretty big with that performance over cleveland And I still I i'm trying to figure out whether baltimore is that good or whether we need to really change our opinion on The cleveland browns both let's do both It might be both and we're going to get a very interesting data point on thursday night, which I'm I'm very much looking forward to Um, but before before we get to that Patriots of seahawks last game we wanted to ask you about patriots Minus four at home total of 45 and a half Uh, you know seahawks let rust cook a little bit last week. Uh, the guys obviously talented They ran they sorry they threw more on first down in the first half and they they pulled away Patriots look pretty decent with cam newton Running the ball. I actually threw the ball pretty well in terms of yards per pass attempts. What are you thinking about this game? So this is a really good question as to if seattle will continue to let rust cook Or if they go or if they are going to try and establish the run because they are too afraid of the patriot's second area Or whatever it might be p carol stubborn. I don't know and While I am very much afraid of succumbing to recency bias It's it's what gives me cold sweats at night. I think what's important here is that I Whenever you have those anomalies in terms of a team passing a lot more than usual or running a lot more than usual Sort of my methodology is first off. I look at the injury record To see if a lack of personnel necessarily forced a game script going back to the eagles for instance Miles sanders didn't play in that game. They're not comfortable with the running backs They have so they passed it a good bit more especially in early down situations to me That's not their identity. That's not something that they necessarily want to do a lot And I think miles sanders is you know someone they want in many dynamic situations And so I look at it and go yeah for the eagles Personnel mattered for seattle their injury report is is largely unscathed They look fine as far as that's concerned And so that didn't help then I looked at Atlanta's defense to figure out if there were if there was some major mismatch And yeah, Atlanta's worse Defending the pass than defending the run But at the same time it wasn't such a huge discrepancy to where it was obvious what seattle was supposed to do in that situation So the two big factors here that would help put some logic into this situation. I go. Well, it's not there It may actually be russell wilson campaigning to let himself cook more and that campaign. Hey, it's an election year. I can say these things But that's that's the deal is that the campaign is working and beat carol is listening to his quarterback And it's kumbaya right now and all right. I'm succumbing to recency bias I think I think russell will be cooking some more on sunday I think it's okay to to succumb to recency bias in situations that are not dictated by variance And I think that play calling is less dictated by variance than a lot of other things So I actually think you're okay buying into recency bias there Especially when there was a lot of there was a drum beat that they might actually do this and they did so So I don't think it's a bad thing to buy into what you saw there So let's talk about the other side of this game here. We got cam newton Looking good at least as a rusher in week number one Do you think he can do enough to help the patriots cover here or do the seahawks win by four or more? I'm gonna go with the seahawks here. I I think cam newton Certainly look good from the start, but at the same time It was only 21 points against a miami defense that you know has some great players But like we said before Defense is tricky right now because of communication not having that off season new pieces there It seemed to me like I would have wanted a little bit more out of Maybe more the receivers than anything else to feel comfortable as far as what the patriots are capable of doing But again with the seahawks passing so much in early down non non garbage time situations It just seemed to me like this this is going to be A very potent offense in the nfl and it's not going to be slowing down anytime soon And especially if they're able to do this against a great patriot secondary then I go, you know what? Then they're gonna be really hard to beat they should be the nfc west favorites And one thing I will say though in terms of cam newton's ability to run I think he'll still be able to do that wouldn't be surprised at the patriots hang 20 24 something like that It will chew up some clock. And so I do think this will be a closer game Probably around six six and a half something like that. So again the line is is pretty close to where it should be But I I believe in russia wilson too much. I think you can cover the four Sounds good Are there any other games on week one at fandall sportsbooks that you're interested in? So I guess I am contractually obligated to mention the dallas cowboys being here I am 50 I I think they're they're gonna pick things up from The offense and you know insanity that they were able to embrace last year And I don't see much in terms of week one that leads me to believe that uh, they're gonna struggle In week two, especially against this Atlanta defense. I I do think though, and this is actually something I wanted to ask you guys about One weird thing about covering the cowboys for for several years now is They they are weird when it comes to home road splits And I don't get it because I know home runs home road splits are largely spurious There's really no reason for it But there have been years when the cowboys I think 2014 when I won every road game That was nuts when they had to Marco Murray But last year they were phenomenal at home offensively, but then on the road they couldn't do very much It was the same thing in 2018 It because I look at this this a lot for daily fantasy and my hypothesis initially was turf But then last year, I think it was indianapolis. It was either last year or the year before they went to indy played indoors and Later this is after the amara cooper trade laid a complete goose egg and last week was also indoors So like that was my hypothesis my hypothesis sucked. I don't get it either No, exactly. No, I was actually at that game in indy and yeah I was I was shocked by that It was like they finished the season winning seven of eight looking great and just about every contest They go to indy and lay a goose egg first time in a while for them And I I don't understand it amari cooper's sort of you know lack of availability in 2019 Especially in the filling contest It just doesn't make sense to have all this bad luck happen on the road versus at home The split doesn't mean anything And yet I do believe that in week two the cowboys will probably hang 35 to 40 on Atlanta And you know, I also too, I mean look at that rams game from sunday night had cd lamb run to the sticks Then perhaps we're talking about the cowboys very differently. They get 24 if michael gallipatton gotten called for a phantom pass interference Our jail ramsey hadn't been a world-class actor. Yeah, exactly. There are enough Isolated cases to where you go. Okay 17 was about the worst they were going to do They're really they were really more of a 24 27 point Offense in that game and especially against Atlanta at home You know, you give another game of cd lamb trying to redeem himself. I I think they'll be just fine I think it'll be a blowout one for them. Alrighty any other games you're eyeing or are we all set? I think we're all set. All right. Perfect. I think that we got some good takeaways for week number two This should be a lot of fun and uh some more football to watch Hopefully we have plenty to watch for the rest of the fall as well That is edward egros. Make sure you follow him on twitter at ed with sports and check him out on more ways to win Edward, I appreciate it. Good luck to you in week number two Hopefully we'll talk to you again here soon and check out the marvelous beard once again. Oh shucks. You cut that out Covering the future Big thank you once again to edward egros for coming on and previewing week number two in ed I wish we'd spent more time talking dallas because obviously edward has a lot of knowledge when it comes to the cowboys I used to post a podcast about them and things like that and we talk a lot about over reactions to week one But seeing dallas as only a four and a half point favorite against an atlanta team that is very uh, I don't know like Nondescript. I don't know if that's the right word. Uh seeing that it is very interesting to me Yeah, well, those two teams were involved in games with uh with a lot of late movement Um, so the markets, you know, actually before that game happened made a pretty decisive move against dallas So dallas was the favorite heading into that sunday night game at the rams rams ended up as a I think a one point favorite in that game so and That was interesting to me. I thought that was the wrong direction. I mean la ended up winning that game They probably deserved to win that game. Um, well, that's debatable, but but it was a close game But you know, the rams are an interesting team because uh, so I do a wisdom of crowds model where I Yeah, uh put together the the opinions of sports writers that cover the nfl I found this to be very predictive over the past And that model was very down on the rams below nfl average. Yeah, um, so But the markets were very strong and saying like yeah, we we believe in this team We believe shon mcvay can still coach offense That turned out to be true We believe the defense can be okay and and their defense was was decent despite partying with wade phillips The other game with some massive line movement towards the end was seattle at atlanta You know, seattle was a favor for most of the week and then that game moved to atlanta is a one point favorite. Um When it closed, so I disagreed with that line movement as well You know that that kind of bore itself out in in the result although I think that that game was much closer than the The score indicated well, we were talking about this before the show but I was trying to figure out why that one moved the Dallas one I kind of understand because The depth along the offensive line became more apparent like la la Collins placed an injured reserve while or a while ago So I didn't know why But like once the enactence came out I think it came be became more apparent that the cowboys depth was bad along the offensive line But I was trying to figure out reasons why the number shifted for the atlanta seattle game I could not figure them out like I I don't know That one confuddled me. Yeah. Well, I mean unless you believe in Atlanta and matt ryan and I mean, I like matt ryan, but uh It's russell wilson like I think my my worst My worst sweats from like a I don't want to look stupid always come when I go against russell wilson So Right, it happened again on sunday opposite because I was rooting for them to not score points Like I wasn't running against seattle specifically. I was running against points and russell wilson gave me the double barrel middle fingers But like carol did. Yeah. Yeah by brian schottenheimer. Yeah by actually using their good quarterback but It was very strange because I guess Like again, I said we're beginning the segment like I find atlanta to be aggressively mediocre So seeing that movement towards them Against seattle is confusing seeing them be pumped up and this dallas game is confusing but No idea I guess we'll see maybe the falcons will win this game by six and we'll look very stupid on monday Let's dive into covering the future where we hopefully will not look stupid And let's start things off here that interesting new england at seattle game ed We have some new data on both teams now. What are you seeing with this one as we get into week number two? Yeah, so I mean, I think this is a pretty interesting game I mentioned that the seattle atlanta game was was much closer than than it kind of seemed it was 1412 Uh in the beginning of the second half seattle went for it on a fourth and five and Instead of going short to pick up the first down they threw a touchdown Um on the next play, uh, atlanta faked a punt and looked like they had a first down But then fumbled it away and that was essentially the game. Um, you know atlanta put up a lot of yards after that but So a lot of the yardage was you know when the game was kind of out of hand later But they did have 506 yards compared to 383 For seattle, you know, both teams were very efficient throwing the ball through the air Almost eight yards per pass attempt for both teams and I still have my questions about seattle's defense I know they picked up jamal adams But this was a unit that was like, you know bottom 10 last year in terms of success rate adjusted for for who they played And then on the other side new england talk about new england. So You know, they started cam newton They ran him a lot 15 carries a lot talk about their touchdown But he actually did all right throwing the ball as well 6.7 yards per pass attempt So, uh, you know, I don't think he's getting back to his 2015 efficiency levels in terms of throwing the ball But I do like what I see uh out of new england I think when you look at a game with bill belichick against pete carroll I like I like the idea of taking bill belichick. I think four points is too much My model says this game should be uh, seattle by two point three points and uh, so So, yeah, I will take new england plus four I I this I see this game coming back to three and a half three points by the time we we kick off on sunday night Oh, and and and it's going to be a little harder for rust to cook Even if he's allowed to do that against the new england defense that are you saying new england's defense is better than atlantis? Shocker breaking news. You're uncovering the spread. I'm saying new england's defense is better than atlantis. Yes Yeah, I think that's been a really fun game. Um, not just because of the seattle offense versus the new england defense But like I want to see cam newton in situations where he's Put up pressed up against the wall because like we saw last week Obviously, they were in control that entire game which meant that new england was able to use this this rush heavy approach Including cam in that equation But if they have to throw I want to see what cam will do then i'm not saying that i'm That skeptical of cam. I just want to have I want to know Like I don't I have no idea if he'll be able to throw the ball super efficiently because I did it like I think 21 times in week number one So I want to see increased passing volume out of cam newton not because of him I want to see it because they're wide receivers Scare the poo out of me and I think they might suck so I want to see what cam does when he's forced to throw And we're gonna get answers on that. I hope like I hope seattle gets a lead in this game So we can get answers just because I want more of a sample than 21 non-pressure drop backs effectively But it's gonna be so much more interesting if doing winds up and russ has to go against that That would be pretty fun. That would be pretty fun. I would enjoy that so Uh back and forth. How about that? Yeah for sure Yeah, and and we'll see with cam. I mean you mentioned the 21 pass attempts Uh two sacks and only four in completions there. Yeah So I I think new england will take that can you do it when he's coming down and he needs to start picking up more chunk yards Or doubles as uh, dr. Eric eager mentioned on my podcast yesterday I think that remains to be seen, you know I mean, I think we know edelman and and james wire are going to be good But who else is going to step up a receiver for the patriots and chunk yard is just going to be the big issue And I think that would be an issue if they fall behind But if they can play from ahead, they will be in a good spot because Sony michelle actually was very successful as a rusher on sunday, which is not something I expected I think he had eight of his 10 carries were Successful carries, so we'll see how that goes But I think playing from ahead new england is a very different team and we'll see if they can get ahead of seattle on Sunday night football I want to talk about that eagles rams game because we can often overreact what we saw in week number one That's especially true when the context is different than what it will be going forward So I want to get the over on rams versus eagles. It is currently 47 if handle sports book However, I'm just saying you can find a better number out there. I'd recommend you do so But even the best you can get at your available books is 47 I would still take it the reason I think we're both That I think this is I think they were both Rating the rams defense and underrating philadelphia's offense philly had to play week one without lane johnson Who is one of the best offensive tackleson football against? Arguably the league's best defensive line with washington when what they've assembled this offseason They're gonna be a force and facing now without lane johnson is not great Johnson he said yesterday that he will play sunday. We can't always take players at their word Uh, but doug peterson said that johnson will practice today on wednesday He was close to playing week one. I'm betting he will be out there And that's a massive upgrade for philadelphia's offense the rams in week one allowed just 17 points to an awesome dallas offense, but They were also down offensive lineman. They lost one during the game And the rams had a defensive exodus in the offseason My prior going into the year was that they were going to struggle And i'm not ready to jump off that based on that one game where dallas had in-game injuries But even if the rams are good a defensive which could happen This game gives a boost via the pace because after week one the rams rank ninth in situation neutral pace corner football outsiders The eagles are 13th last year. They were third and 17th respectively So the play volume here should be good And that's another route to an ovary into the defense does play pretty well I think both these teams will be able to move the football and it should be a heavy volume kind of game That's enough for me to like the ovary. So again Make sure you shop around to get the best number there go to oddsfire.com for a dashboard to see what the best number is But even if the best number you can get is 47 I do still like the over there and uh any takeaways or any takeaways or thoughts for you On this week two game between the rams and the eagles Yeah, well, I mean, I like that karsten wenz through two picks This past week What was the other one it was not just karsten wenz there's another one that you Tom brady one and edward talked about this too. You were talking about bruce arian's offenses Always said throw a lot of picks What did tom brady do in his first game into bruce arian's offense? I don't know if that's on arian's though, right? Like if you look at the two interceptions that brady threw like well, it's not it's not a negative on arian's It's saying that bruce arian's runs aggressive offenses and aggressive offenses throw more picks So it's not a negative that he throws picks. He just they throw more picks in his offense Yeah, yeah for sure So, I mean, I think the I think the jury's still a little bit out on brady, right? Like I mean, I you know, I went back this morning and looked at his bad ball rate Which is you know picks plus uh pass the defended per pass attempts and brady's been pretty good Certainly, he hasn't been good, but his last three games out. Um, but so So yeah, I mean, I mean, yeah, he's in a new system. We'll see how that goes in the future But wence, I mean two really really poor Interceptions and then I think I mentioned on this show his his bad sack fumble rate, too Yeah, uh, he fumbled twice. I think what do you fumble twice? He fumbled twice He only lost one but that was obviously a critical one when they were trying to come back and and that's you know When you score 17 points in whatever the first part of the game and are up 17 nothing and then don't score again uh There's probably some turnovers in there and and we definitely sell that with wence. So You know, I I'm looking to go against philadelphia Um online here, uh, my you know, my numbers actually don't say this is this is a game in which to do that um I definitely have my concerns about dallas's uh defense as well. So, um, but But yeah, I mean, I guess what I think about this game is I'm glad carson wence, uh, did what he did in game one I will stick with the you being right on the bruce arian's office not saying that tom brady Can't do well. I'm more saying that like bruce arian's offense is prone to interceptions Interceptions are not always the worst thing. Uh, if it if the result of downfield throwing which they often are Uh, but I think you can patch yourself on the back a little bit there For the carson wence and I'm I'm gonna yeah, well, I'll definitely I like the way the wence thing is going I think the jury is still out on tom brady in bruce arian's is often So I like I think I feel like we need at least Half a season to see what's going on with that. So that's all we got for week two But this is the perfect transition ad where can people get the pick report? Yeah, so so members, uh, have access to that so you can go to my site and uh, the powerank.net is actually a url That'll take you to a place where you can learn more about a membership And then uh, all the all that bad ball data is actually a nice, uh, table In the member section of my site, uh, if you're not quite ready to, uh, engage in a membership with my site Then you can also get the pick report separately The powerank.info is a url that will take you to a place where you can check that out And there's many tiers you can just get the report or the report plus the audiobook Or the entire package which has the data on quarterbacks, which is You know kind of what you need if if you want to start finding value with this stuff But uh, there's also options for just the content version And you said you had dr. Eric you grew on your podcast this week, too Yeah, that might not be up when this podcast goes up, but it will certainly be up By thursday morning at the very latest So yeah, yeah, we had a we had a pretty fun conversation He does not think highly of the minnesota Vikings Which was like and I you know, I definitely believe him when when he says that he thought this before the season started But he tweeted about it because he was talking about their youth before the season I believe that's the case. So yeah, I think that I think that was true. Yes Yeah, their youth and just like I mean that defense is not the same unit as when they signed career cousins a couple years Well, also like daniel hunter is on injured reserve right now, too. Like that's that's a huge impact Yeah, yeah, and you got rid of all your cornerbacks and have a bunch of young guys in there So again, one of these games is erin roger is going to have a breakout season compared to his last four seasons Or does minnesota just suck? I right Again, something we won't know So yeah, I think just like so many interesting story lines heading into week two I mean it starts thursday night with You know what what we're going to see with cleveland Big question marks with cleveland um And then baltimore, so yeah, I mean there was a lot of things that I actually tweaked my model a little bit This year to incorporate some of the early season market data In my models, but but baltimore didn't need that and and I like I tried to set this up So after one week, uh, the model doesn't overreact to anything. Yeah, baltimore's Performance was so severe that they actually went up almost two points. Wow And that's a lot. I mean that's almost too much when I even say it out loud So i'm going to try to ignore that that I said it out loud, but I mean, they're good man. I don't I don't blame the model They well, they are good and I was just looking like their pass offense was like eighth in adjusted success rate Passing last year and that was with marky entries into hollywood brown playing limited snaps the entire year right So yeah, they could go nuts Yeah, and a defense that you know the front seven I had my doubts about them But there's a secondary that that is pretty good. Yeah, um, which is the way I think you really want to build a modern NFL defense according to a lot of the work that pff has done Yep, and as a baker backer, I am hoping cleveland shows life just life. I don't need I don't need a lot I'm just asking for life. They're a good easier again since they so let's hope let us pray Make sure you check out the football analytics show subscribe to that so you can get it right when that podcast with dr Eric eager is posted and check out the power rank com and the power rank info to get the pick report I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast You can follow ed at the power rank big big Thank you to edward egros our guest for today for breaking down week two of the nfl find edward on twitter at ed with sports Also, thank you to calvin theobald our video producer from the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always And thank you to everyone for tuning in week one of the books week two coming around the corner Good luck to you whether you're betting on college football the nfl or whatever else it may be the bristol night race on saturday The us open whatever it may be good luck to you. We'll talk to you again soon This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network