 Okay, very good morning to you. Wednesday the 2nd of October. Hope you're well. Anthony here at the desk in London. I'm going to have a recap on what you can see to the side of me, of course, which was the main catalyst of the price movement of yesterday's session, creating a fairly significant sell-off in global equity index futures. Asia overnight, following suit from the lower close on Wall Street, given the fact that the ISM manufacturing was such a weak reading that we had yesterday. We're also going to talk a little bit about well, what does this mean for the US economy? What does it mean for the S&P over the kind of key levels to look out for? I'm going to talk about what does this mean for the implications for the October Fed meeting and the prospects now of a cut happening at the end of the month. Also going to talk about Brexit and Boris. It's the final day of the Tory party conference. What are we expecting? Giving some volatility we had late yesterday afternoon in the pound after some reports about potentially a bit of a breakthrough or concession coming. And then we're going to have a look at North Korea. Submiss our tests overnight. Don't worry, the world's not going to end. But definitely I need to point out a few things around that that you can be aware of. And more importantly, why are they doing that right now? I think it's quite a telling move. Because obviously, as you will know, it is the 70th anniversary happening at the moment in China. And these things do tend to be very interlinked. We'll also then recap the API all different trees from last night. What are we looking out for then as the prelude, if you like, in the setup for the DOEs this afternoon. And then I'll recap the calendar and hand you over to Sam. So first off, let's before I get really stuck into the ISM, let's just have a look at overall general broader market sentiment and things are relatively flat. But the interesting thing here obviously is that the US 10 year bottom right remains elevated. You can see here, technically, it's found some support bit of a bounce on the early European UK entrance here at 7am this morning in the futures and around those previous highs that we had had over recent sessions. The US 10 year being lifted, of course, as yields plummeted on the back of the weakness of that US data in yesterday's session. And then US index futures remain suppressed, albeit in relatively quiet trade overnight in Asia. Really quite interested to see then how things play out when the US participants come back into market in a few hours time. So importantly, as I said, we've held on to those moves. Gold still up a decent amount post those numbers, albeit it's paired about eight bucks off the initial high that was seen in the aftermath of the numbers and around the European cash close. So we trade still 1482, which is elevated despite being down about seven bucks on the session. And we're just finding a bit of near term support around pivot. But it's the S&P I want to have a look at more closely just for a moment. I know Sam's going to go over this in a lot more detail, but I just wanted to have a look at a few longer term levels. And this was obviously the move yesterday. Why did that happen? So just to recap for any of those who weren't fully up to speed. This is the graphic here that I'm showing you of ISM manufacturing gauge, which yesterday missed expectations by a large margin. And it was a 10 year low in September, as you can see here the white line marks than the headline ISM figure. We've just broken below where we were in the beginning of 2016, which puts us back to where we were in June of 2009. Now, actually what I thought was most interesting looking at this data, not only was the headline weak, but a lot of people look at the constituents that form the ISM manufacturing report. And if you actually look at that, this is a graphic now of something a little bit different. So here the red line is the ISM manufacturing number, the PMI composite index, but the new export orders, the three month lead figure. So this is often seen as a bit of a lead indicator of then future performance. And if you look at new export orders, that is a monumental drop off, which does not look good at all as far as this data is concerned. That's not for now. That's about the perception of the future. And I think that explains to a large degree why there was such a severe reaction yesterday. Not only was it a decent miss on the headline figure, but the underlying, peel off a few layers and look beneath the bonnet. And actually, there's some really quite nasty parts to this report in terms of its implications of what it's suggesting about the future performance of the US economy. So new export orders absolutely tanked, which would suggest then that this idea of, you remember where we were about two and a half months ago, everyone was almost panicking about this inversion of the yield curve, but we saw a really decent bounce away from that. Well, do we go back into that phase now? And this certainly would heighten those prospects that economic growth in the US is going to be more muted, let's say. The actual Atlanta Fed GDP tracker after this data is now looking at about 1.8% at the moment for the next reading for the next quarter for US GDP. So that obviously was the key thing from yesterday. And it does really highlight the importance now of economic data. And we've got some real big stuff coming up ADP today, but non-farm payrolls, of course, on Friday, which is going to really be interesting now, given what's been happening so far with US economic data. So even as I'm speaking, just keeping an eye on the S&P future here, we're just having a retest you can see in the near term price action of the initial lows that were seen right into the close on Wall Street. You can see there, Wall Street literally closed at the low yesterday, and we're right at that level in the futures at the moment. And what's very interesting about this is I was looking at the daily continuation chart. Let me just remove this trend line for a moment. Now, if you were to go back year to year, how has the S&P 500 performed over the course of where we were on the second, third of October of 2018 to where we are today? Well, this is where we were. This is where we are. We are absolutely square at this point. It's quite amazing really to think that we've had such a variance in price. We obviously got down towards 2300, breached 3000. And here we are right at exact same point. The interesting thing here and coming in listening to Bloomberg this morning, obviously it's within their agenda to try and push the narrative that here we go again and the October sell-off. But interesting, obviously it was what when that Saudi journalist Khashoggi got killed was almost like the spark that set the various things that were happening at that present point in time, a light, and the market really did sell off aggressively. And that was the commencement of that Q4 kind of correction, if you like, in the markets globally. And when did that happen? Well, it happened today. Well, in fact, tomorrow. So yeah, definitely while we're at these real key technical relevant levels, and you can see here another kind of batch of interesting levels that around that point here that we had through the summer, we're right on that at the moment. And that does open up the prospect potentially of a deeper move to the downside. This is looking at a 120 chart, perhaps that makes it let's say if I was to look at this chart, this is the long term. But if I was to zoom in on this area here, that summer movement, well, you can see it here. There's a really a band of support. And we've literally just broken that now as I'm speaking. What I'm looking at here is this band. Let me just get a rectangle to make it more easier for you to see. Kind of looking here, because that encapsulates then a lot of that price movement that was capping the upside of much of the month of August, and you can see on the eventual breach of that level, a real accelerated move that we had at the beginning of September. If we were to push below this, then technically, I don't really see a lot. I mean, I'm not talking maybe so much intraday, but days, week type price movement. Well, really that 2900 psychological level just below there 28, 91, 75, it starts to bring in then the lows from late August, September, certainly is on the cards. So definitely interesting at the moment to see how this shapes up. And certainly, I think when the US coming is going to be key, I think for this week, if we aren't going to hit that lower down bound levels in the S&P, then if non farm payrolls comes out, that could be another reason to add momentum to the move. The interesting thing, of course, and the thing to remember and the thing I think is quite surprising about the move yesterday was, of course, this. Now I know this is linked to trade war, but I think the same is true somewhat to the performance of economic data. But we can also link this into the current status of trade war, because obviously they're going to be holding high level talks, recommencing between the US and China next week. Now if the equity market does start to sell off here, and we do start to see a meaningful move from around 3000 down to 2900, well then you can almost guess what's going to happen. US and China are probably going to meet. We've seen trade talks, if anything, almost break down at the end of last week with some new ways and means of which they're looking to ramp up different ways about capital investment in different firms, into different geographic regions and so on, putting limitations on certain things. Well then you know what's going to happen. The market will sell off, trade fears pick up, economic data weakens, that means that really you get a dual fold mechanism here, and that is one, you get this idea that there's Trump's potential that he then starts to go, you know what? I received a beautiful letter from Xi, and we're going to play some golf, and it's going to be great. And then all of a sudden the market will go wow. That's a positive. We've seen this so many times before, and I still find it incredible that the market responds to that, because we know that this is kind of a cycle that just keeps on repeating itself. But secondly, and almost more importantly I think, is what are the Fed going to do? And obviously I would not be surprised at all if Donald Trump today starts tweeting about Jerome Powell saying look what you've done, equities are selling off, I'm trying to broker a trade deal, I'm trying to make America great again and you're not pulling your weight. Now not that Powell's going to listen to him, why should he? His job is not to listen to government speakers, his job is to react to the economy, but that latter point is important. If then we start to see a significant weakening in the economy, such as being evident in recent data highlighted by yesterday, in addition to a continuous equity market sell-off, well then something's got to give and the Fed have got to start committing then to not just a mid-cycle adjustment. We've had two rate cuts, markets were pricing when we were talking on Monday for one by the end of the year, and that was not priced for October. At the beginning of this week, literally two days ago, federal funds futures for the October 30th Fed meeting, which you're looking at right here, was priced. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 40%. That's now gone up to 63.6%. We've seen a 24% shift up in the prospect of a rate cut happening in basically four weeks time. This is quite key because one thing that we've obviously seen before is when then people start having this belief that the Fed are going to take more assertive, more proactive measures to counteract any type of downturn, what do equities do? Inevitably they start to rally again. As much as we're having a bit of a short bit of pressure in the equity market, and I do think that possibly that could continue down to those levels we were just looking at in the S&P, particularly given the importance of this level, we're just testing. We're just broken here in the S&P 500. I do think though that ultimately there's an opportunity to buy a dip, but not right now further down because then the Fed hand is going to be forced. They're going to have to cut and potentially then the market, given how much more dovishly priced it normally is to the Fed, will probably be discounting then not just one, but another cut in December. All of this will likely be supportive in addition to Trump then going through his usual cycle of then talking up a trade deal rather than what's been quite negative at the moment. So a few things for thought there for sure. All right, moving off of that, I've got to update you about Boris. So just hopping across the pond, back to our own shores, Boris Johnson to issue an ultimatum as EU bulks at his Brexit plan. So of course as a reminder, today is the final day. Here's the agenda for the Conservative Party conference in Manchester. So today is strengthening the union speech at 10. A woman's place is in politics. It follows that. And then the Prime Minister, excuse me, is scheduled to come onto the stage and deliver his closing speech, which is kind of the real headline piece, if you like, where I can already tell you what he's going to say. He's going to be massively talking up that we need to fulfill the will of the people. We will deliver Brexit. He's been hinting towards a self-imposed deadline of the 10th or 11th of October, I think it is, to really just put the pressure on Europe. Now you'll remember there was a high degree of volatility yesterday in the pound. I'm not sure if many of you are around to catch that. It kind of came late afternoon. Let me just repeat to you the comments that came out and show you the cable chart. So this was it here. So we saw an initial spike higher. And that was that move there. Pretty decent actually. It went from around 122.30 all the way up to 123.75. So a strong move. And that came on the back of a Bloomberg source report saying the EU is reportedly ready to consider a time limit on the Irish border backstop, considering a backstop for Northern Ireland only and reportedly sees possible concessions if the UK accepts the backstop according to two people familiar with the matter. Now, I think Sam made a really interesting point when that came out. And he was just saying, you know, this is just hot air and how many times have we heard this before? And then, lo and behold, literally within the hour, the EU Commission spokesperson came out and denied the report and said the EU is not considering that option at all. And I think this is one of those things where if you're a retail trader, you can get severely hurt on the back of that type of information. Because what can happen is that you come late to a move, you see the pounders is seeing this really nice pop on the upside, you then try and get long, perhaps let's say in this case at the pivot, which was the previous highs trying to get long, it works for a period of time. But then the denial comes out and you get hit for the best part of 50 pips on an initial spike on the back of the fact that they deny it. And so I do, you know, with political information like that, particularly when it's not an official saying it, it's a source report saying it. Remember, when a source speaks, what happens from a news accredited agency point of view, their job is then they try to get official comment. And more often or not, that official comment is no comment. Or in this case, they say the opposite, which can cause an aggressive move in the other direction. So just be very careful of that going forward. Now, what are we expecting as the outcome from Boris and these rumors about potential concessions? Well, this was a really great sequence of tweets that I saw. And this is when really you've got to be on top of your Brexit journalists, if you're using Twitter. This is Tamara Cohen, and she works as a Sky News political correspondent. Now I thought it was quite interesting, as she said, despite Johnson's insistence that he wants a deal sources familiar with the substance of the talks put chances of securing one pretty low. I'm hearing around 10%. Some say it's even lower. Two senior ministers told me yesterday, we're not going to get a deal. And I personally think that that is the case. Although Boris has talked about this idea of some kind of time, potentially accepting a time limited backstop and so on, and checks not off the physical frontier of the border in Northern Ireland. And there's been some talks that potentially the Brexiteer minded MPs would support a deal similar to May's given the fact that they would risk losing Brexit altogether. I just think that Europe are not going to agree to what Boris wants and what Boris is going to outlay later today. Now these other tweets that came out from this journalist, she said that Johnson's message to Tory activists today is that there are 10 days to make this work. The EU will want a work through proposal well before the 17th of October. Remember the 17th and 18th of the European Council Summit, where they're going to be discussing Brexit ahead of the end of the month deadline. So what Johnson is going to say today is probably going to go down very well the Conservatives is going to go down like a lead balloon when it comes to Europe. And we've already heard that particularly from Ireland, of course, which are intrinsically linked to this key sticking point on the border issue. But then also other EU officials have already said the same that the final offer the PM to unveil details of quote, take it or leave it deal at the party conference and legal text this afternoon. He will say it's a fair and reasonable compromise to build on. But the details of two borders a plan is likely to be fiercely opposed by the EU. So once again, things haven't really moved on a lot from Theresa May. We're still stuck on the same issue. And that is the border wall. So I guess if we're going to go back to the pound and talk about this from a trading potential, I see this as a baseline scenario going down the route of quite a rousing no Brexit credible no deal threat speech from Johnson. I'm sure he'll do a good job of that and that'll really rile up the Brexiteers and the conference might look like it's gone down well. But ultimately, I think that this is all political posturing. And the EU will not accept his terms basically. And so therefore, I don't really see too much in a way of a real reaction here. We kind of know what Boris is going to say. So I don't think that him threatening again, no deal is going to put immediate downside pressure on the pound. The one thing I would look out for is after he's given his speech, it'd be interested to see if any European officials comment. And if they do, what is the tone of that response to his proposal that he outlines. So I would say given he's going to outline some of the legal text around his deal, the next 24 hours, you probably will see some sort of meaningful move retesting either relief rally or the near term lows on how Europe responds to his deal. And my baseline scenario there is they're not going to like it. We still remain at this current impasse and it's ongoing at that point. All right, a few other final headlines to show you before Sam jumps on looks at the charts. I just wanted to quickly mention this. Is this really moving the markets? No. And I wanted to explain why. So North Korea has fired a ballistic missile basically overnight, possibly from a submarine. This comes day before talks between U.S. and Korean officials. Now, if you've been watching the 70th anniversary celebrations in China, you would have seen that they've been absolutely rolling out their military capability to try and really flex the muscles to show what the great nation they are. And these things do tend to be correlated. Obviously, although in an indirect sense, North Korea tied to China. And so North Korea doing this at this point in time, I don't think it's surprising at all to give you a bit of background color. Since the historic peace agreement brokered by Trump has actually been nine ballistic missile tests conducted by North Korea. So go figure, it's not exactly being peaceful on the peninsula. But the point being is if you look at historical precedents, every time Korean officials about to go into talks with North Korea, or even in fact with China, North Korea tends to conduct these military exercises. It's kind of their way of the art of negotiation going into high level talks. So it's completely not unusual activity. And not something that I think you need to be particularly concerned of, albeit whenever you hear of this type of thing. Obviously when it's happening in real time, you do need to pay attention to where that missile is going, of course. But ultimately, more often than not, it's just a test and a threatening behavior in that way. One actual thing I just quickly wanted to show you actually, what I thought was quite interesting. And I have mentioned this before to a number of our new interns when I talked to you about geopolitics. And this was an updated graphic that I saw. And I thought it was just really fascinating because if you look back in the history of human civilization, and if you then put that together in combination with the long term objective of China to become the global leading trading partner of the world, then what we've learned from those two things is that you need a sizeable army. Now it's not that these days people go into hand to hand combat like we would have done in previous world wars. But having a large army is to facilitate the safe passage of goods through strategic points globally, particularly areas like Straits of Hormuz, for example. But what's been quite interesting here is if you look over the last 10 years, so basically since the financial crisis, Chinese military spending has increased 83%, whereas the US and United Kingdom both decreased by 17%. So even though US defense spending, I have the stats here, US military spending last year was $649 billion. China is only $250 billion. So the US still is massive compared to everyone else. But the interesting thing here is as the Chinese economy keeps growing, as they pursue this general push towards opening up, liberalizing their economy in the way that they operate on the global level, their military has to increase and it's increasing at a rapid pace. So just quite interesting from a longer term, bigger macro picture. Final thing, looking at oil prices quickly, we did have the API Crude Oil Infantry last night. There's obviously a lot of things going on in the oil market at the moment on the demand side. This new fear about economic downturn ignited once again from the ISM last night in America, you've then got on the flip side and supply side potential further risk of disruptions from the ongoing tensions in the Persian Gulf. On the actual more short-term mechanics, if you like, the crude number last night in the APIs was a drawdown of just shy of $6 million. That was unanticipated. Analysts were expecting a build of $2.25 million. Cushing was a build of $373,000. Gasling a build of $2.1 million. Distillates a draw of $1.7 million. So again, we'll recap these as we go into the release of the DOEs later on this afternoon. When this data came out last night, last night, a slight little bump up in price action drifted up during the overnight Asia-Pacific session. We've just found a little bit of support around the $54 handle, the pivot in the futures this morning. Okay, quickly the calendar. What have we got? UK construction numbers. Last time this came out, I think it was the steepest fall we've seen in UK construction PMI since March 2009, so right in the severity of the financial crisis. Unsurprising then to see this number remain in contractionary territory. Even if it comes into the lower bound of the range, I wouldn't really anticipate that it's going to have that much of an influence over the pound, to be honest. The interesting thing this afternoon will be quarter past one ADP. This obviously the prelude to non-farm payrolls we get on Friday and just given the context of yesterday's weak economic data, we will be watching that with particular interest. The lowest estimate on the street is 100,000, so anything below there could be particularly interesting. Then you've got the oil inventories this afternoon. A couple of speakers, Deguindos from the ECB, one, Feds Harker, two, Feds Williams, voter, neutral stance, just before 4pm and then Boris Johnson, of course, talking at midday. Okay, that's it from me. I'm going to leave you with that. Any questions, feel free to put them in the chat or on the video comment section and have a good day. Here's Sam. Yeah, thanks, Sam. I hope everyone is doing well. Seems the markets are red, much like North London last night as Biomunic beat Tottenham 7, yes, 7-2. I'm sure our head of trading peers, Curran, who has just walked in, is not going to be too happy about that anyway. Let's have a look at these red markets. Just having a look at the S&P, and like Ant was saying, the important levels that are broken through are continuing this morning. Technically, just having a look at the charts elsewhere, I'm just going to bring this in with. We're coming to, well, let me just clear this up. That was the area we wrote before, the high that we had back on the 30th was also the low of last week. We retested that this morning, and we're continuing to come down now. What was the high that we had back on the 3rd of September is the next real key level, which is going to look like it coming to play any moment now, 29, 26, give or take a point or two. Actually, we've just touched that to the tick now. Quite a key level being tested in the S&P, and a breakthrough of their 29, 100, not the furthest move away. Of course, if we have a move like we did yesterday, that could well come into play. S&P under pressure. Here you can see on the longer term and the shorter term chart, you can see just having a little tiny bounce, three points or so, from that first test of the level. Of course, keeping an eye on any of the retracements up to previous lows to act as resistance, but it wouldn't be too surprising to hear some Trump comments come out. Other levels on the longer term charts that are still quite interesting. That trend line in oil that we've been talking about this week in the briefing, of course, that broke through. On Monday, we almost came back to retest it yesterday. Didn't quite make it up towards the pivot. However, of course, we're still relatively nicely below that area, $53 getting tested almost yesterday, which is quite a key level itself in the fact that you've got a couple lows from the 25th of August and the 3rd of September as well there. Underneath that trend line for oil, like we were saying yesterday, we've got to remain favoring a move to the downside. I would say yesterday with stocks coming down and obviously the dollar weakening, gold pushed higher. That 14.92 level that we broke on Monday as well got retested and what a good opportunity intraday that was to have then got short on what was such a good support level to act as resistance. However, if we come up again, especially the way stocks are moving, it wouldn't be too surprising to see maybe an attempt at trying to break through that. But certainly, your line in the sand for gold, 14.92, that whole area, you can just see the importance of this area going back from the last couple of months as well. Having a look over at the pound, it's going to be choppy. I think really go through the next few sessions more so even maybe today and tomorrow than the last couple. You can see each time we have a spike, we're met with a push lower. So just bear that in mind, I would say. It hasn't really been the case that you get a push and you get the continuation of that move straight away. So if you aren't involved in the early move of it, just be careful. I would say we are just having a bit of an attempt to recover the morning's losses and we're coming back up towards the pivot previous low of the day. So as an area goes, 1.2314 on the futures is somewhere I'd like to keep an eye on. You can see from those highs yesterday as well, we are just breaking this trend from those highs as well. So a confirmed break of this and the previous slow, then a change in direction isn't out the question. I think trying to trade this purely technically though is going to be pretty tricky especially the way it has been moving off these comments. However, quite a key zone of resistance we just can't get through at the moment will be the high from Friday, Monday and Tuesday around 1.2375. So a key resistance zone that we've been tested. But just above 1.23 at the moment and those that trend line and the low of the morning or the Asian session were keeping an eye on Euro, having a decent afternoon yesterday following that 10, well the worst reading for 10 years from that manufacturing release. So the Euro pushing up and obviously that's still the low of the year. And that's pretty key point, just a failure to confirm that close below, meaning you could argue it's a bit of a triple bottom there. Key level just below where we are trading is pretty much, well almost the pivot three ticks below 109.74. I'd have that marked up as a bit of a line in the sand and then likewise with the pound from the highs of yesterday, probably worth having a bit of a trend on the potential move later on. You've already seen this morning a break of that pen to the downside. You can see here is bringing that in so around seven o'clock that move pushing to the downside. So any retracement up to that area, which would be around 109.90 if that was to come in now would be a point of interest that I'd have marked up on the chart as well. Having a look over the DAX, which like with the other markets yesterday, other stocks came under pressure, just bringing this trend line and see perhaps was given the cue that it was going to happen all day, breaking its trend line around 10.15. Of course, like there was the case last week on the cash open in the US stocks came under pressure and really obviously the 130 data was the main reason, but also that push following 230 to the downside was pretty aggressive. The DAX just now hit in that low that we did have on the 25th last week, pretty key point as well. First real test of it, be interesting to see what happens. Can we get that confirm break below? I guess the close of the hour will be pretty important. There you've got about 20 minutes for that and likewise with the S&P, any retracements back to those lows that we have broken through. We're looking to see whether they hold as resistance or not. The stocks under a bit of pressure coming to key points that low the day in the S&P, obviously that longer term level, the higher the third of September, so that would be a key one for the bulls to hold from a technical point of view perhaps before 2900 comes into play. But are we now in just a bit of a new range, 20 point range? You can see the importance of that whole zone, if you like, going back here to the 1st of August as well. But the stock's not looking good. Keep an eye on that 14.92 for gold. Pound, just be careful, I would say, and obviously the dollar, which has been on this two-year high, perhaps today you can see a continuation of the weakness we saw following those bad numbers. Oil, of course, wait for the data later on for the main move, but as long as it's below that trend nine, I think you've got to favour a move to the downside. Hope you all have a good training day and any questions, please do let us know.