 Good morning, and good afternoon. I should say I'm welcome to CMC markets on Monday, the first of June and this weekly market update First couple of housekeeping rules just do the just do the disclaimers But quite a bit to cover this week obviously going to be looking at the aftermath of the U.S. Non-farm payrolls numbers the decline in the dollar on the back of those fairly positive Numbers though there were weak spots within the numbers But also, you know looking ahead to what that potentially means for U.S. monetary policy over the course of the rest of the next six nine to twelve months also look ahead to Thursday's Thursday's general election and the rather wide divergence in the opinion polls between the Labor Party and the Conservative Party gaps between one percentage point and 12 percentage points in the polls there which makes calling Thursday's eventual outcome very very difficult To assess we've also got the latest European Central Bank rate meeting also on Thursday Which could well have a significant? Impact on the direction of the euro and we also have some testimony from James Comey former edit and former director of the FBI To an open session of Senate in Congress on Donald Trump's links to Russia and The investigation into his former national security adviser Michael Flynn which could well impact US markets and to a lesser extent the US dollar So I've got quite a bit to get through And if you do have any questions, I've just sent a chat message out I'm pleased reply to that message and I'll try on an answer as best I can But certainly I think we've got quite a bit to get through And we'll start I think with the aftermath of Obviously last week's non-farm payroll numbers which saw US markets hit new record highs We also see saw new record highs For the FTSE 100 we saw new record highs For the German DAX and while we do have a slightly weaker session today I think it's unlikely in the short to medium term that The the gains that we've seen over the course of the past Few days and weeks they don't really show any signs of reversing. We're on a pretty much a slow grind higher While on the other hand the dollar US dollar has Started and has been on a slow decline for quite some time now despite the fact that it's pretty much odds on still That the US will move on on interest rates at its meeting next week The Fed Fed officials now got into to blackout mode, which basically means there will be no Media pronouncements from various Fed officials between now and next Wednesday's meeting on which which is June 14th of June So we have to basically look at why the dollar has declined over the course of the past few months Pretty much since they hiked in March The US dollar has significantly weakened despite the fact that I think probably since mid-April It's been pretty much markets have been pricing in that it's been pretty much a done deal For the Fed to hike rates in June, but it's not about I don't think it isn't about whether or not the feds going to go in June What the debate is about at the moment is whether or not the Fed will actually go in September or well The Fed will go in December, and I think there was a I think there was a perception That the the US Federal Reserve would hike not only in June but also in September and also in December and I think it's those two later Fed hikes that are seriously in doubt Given what we've seen over the course of the past few weeks in terms of data jobs market is still fairly strong The number that we saw on Friday though was once again significant divergence on the ADP number Which was very very strong, but the BLS number was very very weak And that's that's a little bit of a concern. What's also a concern was the decline in the unemployment rate Which sounds a bit strange to four point three percent But what it coincided with was a significant decline in the participation rate as well Now if you're expecting to get a tighter labor market What you would expect to see is a rise in the participation rate and a fall in the unemployment rate That's not happening What's also not happening is a significant rise in wages wages remain stagnant not stagnable They remained unchanged at two point five percent from the previous month And core inflation still remains well below the Fed's target of two percent remains at one point five percent So rather than people saying the Fed is behind the curve I think the Fed is not behind the curve given the weak wage growth or The fairly soft wage growth and the weak inflation numbers and that I think is why you're seeing The US dollar decline. There's also this chart here We heard an awful lot last year about the squeeze on bank investment bank margins and What we've said what we saw over the past 12 months is a big increase In the value of bank share prices and the increase in the bank share prices was predicated on Interest rate differentials between two and ten year Basically widening out and that's what we're seeing in this graph here in August last year rate Differentials between two and ten year yields were at very very low levels and then in the aftermath of the July August and September numbers and then obviously in October and November we saw a sharp rise in Interest rate differentials widening out between twos and tens and that's obviously very good for bank profitability Because the market was pricing in significant aggressive Fed rate rises in 2017 and we pretty much peaked in December When the Fed embarked on its first fit it's its second rate rise in the space of 12 months it hiked in in December 2015 it's hiked again in December 2016 and the expectation was we were going to get an Improving US economy in Q1 and Q2 and as a result the was expected the Fed was going to hike at least three or four times in 2017 and while we saw a hike in March 2016 and we're expecting a hike in 2017 this gap In interest rate differentials has closed back down again, and that's a direct result of the fact that inflation expectations are moderating and market Expectations of Fed rate rises and moderating as well So it's no coincidence that the dollar has declined from its peaks that we saw in December in Line with narrowing interest rate expectations and as a result That is why you're seeing the dollar decline over the course of the last few months and as a result That is why you're also seeing us banks last week We saw or we heard the and the CFO of JP Morgan Marianne Lake say that she expected Investment banking profits to come in much lower than had originally been expected at the beginning of the year and obviously Volatility or the lack of market volatility is also playing into that But obviously this drop from 1.35 percent Differential between two and ten year yields to naught point eight eight Also plays a part in that because essentially banks borrow short lend long if they're making a lot less money on this interest rate Differential that's going to affect their profitability and as a result That's why we're seeing the dollar starting to decline or continuing to decline So obviously that has a significant effect on where the euro dollars going to go and expectations with respect to What's going to happen with respect to the differentials between European and US interest rates? And we've seen that reflected in the rise in euro dollar over the course of the past few months And we're pushing up against this very key resistance level around about 1.13 It's the November highs that we saw in the aftermath of the confirmation of the Trump presidency and while above that We've also got significant resistance as well at the September highs around about 1.13 20 and also the August highs around about 1.13 70 so I think we're still within the broader range that we've been in over the course of the past few months And we are now starting to push towards the upper end of the recent range Now there has been an expectation That mr. Draghi and his press conference on Thursday Will have to acknowledge the fact that eurozone growth has been much better than the ECB had anticipated And as such he's going to have to acknowledge that and potentially start to pave the way to a potential tapering program as we head towards the end of this year I think he's going to be very reluctant to do that simply because he's going to he's not going to want to raise expectations of raising interest rates and as a result It's he's going to have to try to find line try and keep borrowing costs down Particularly in Italy where there is a significant concern about the banking system there But also in terms of the fact that Italy has an awful lot of debt that it needs to roll over over the course of the next Few weeks and months. So he'll want to temper Interest rate expectations at a time when inflation at the moment within Europe is currently trending Depending on where you are between one and a half and two and a half percent in and around that ECB CPI Headline rate of around about two percent So this is the key level. I think for euro dollar around about 113 I think the tone that we're going to be looking for next week with respect to the fed is really what they do with their Inflation forecasts So we could get a dovish hike if we don't then obviously the dollar has got potential to rebound and push the euro lower But for the time being to this week I'm expecting euro dollar to trade between 113 and 111 with a slightly downward bias Towards 111. I think as we head in towards the ECB meeting on Thursday Which sort brings me neatly on to really I think what The main focus for this week will be and ultimately that is the uk election And the potential next move in the value of the pound Let's start with euro sterling because I think with respect to the ECB rate meeting We're going to have a well, that's going to have a significant impact on where euro sterling goes. But certainly once again, we're near We're near the highs for this year with respect to euro sterling just below 88 80 87 80 90 and that does make us a little bit susceptible to a little bit of a pullback We did get a little bit of a breakout In the middle of may we've now pretty much reached the target on that under at the top end of the recent range Certainly looking at the overall trading range for euro sterling at the moment We're still as part of the sideways consolidation that we've been in pretty much since the middle of 2016 I don't really expect that to change. We are looking a little bit overpought We've also got negative divergence on the oscillator Which does suggest that we do remain a little bit vulnerable to a move lower So I think in the context of where we've been over the course of the past six months The bias will be to be slightly short of euros and longer sterling with a stop loss probably above 88 That's quite that's quite a that's quite a quite a distance away as we speak now But since since we've been in this morning The pound has actually done quite well despite the fact that we had a particularly disappointing services PMI number out earlier this morning at 9 30 that came in Um significantly below expectations at 53.8. We were expecting a number in the region of 55.8 But that comes against a backdrop of a much stronger manufacturing and construction sector PMIs that we saw at the end of last week Now obviously we've got the election on thursday We'll get the results on friday. Certainly what i'm seeing here Would appear to suggest Despite what the polls are telling us that the conservatives will probably Manage to stumble Rather ungain in a rather ungainly fashion Over the line but to say that their election campaign has been an exercise in seamless Smooth running will be an understatement in the extreme. It's been shambolic It's been a dog's breakfast of a program and ultimately I think if they do get over the line it'll be Pretty it'll be pretty much against Against the backdrop of a particularly poor opposition that being said Looking at the way the pound is shaping up at the moment. We are looking a little bit on We are a little bit in in the middle of the range that we've been in over the course of the past few weeks But if if i'm looking if i'm looking at the technicals on this There's not really anything here that's telling me that the pound is going to get ready for a significant move lower Which suggests to me that of all the outcomes that could come come about On thursday and friday the hung parliament is unlikely to be one of them um despite what you gov is saying and And again, I think you know we could what we could well see Is if we do get a little bit of disappointment with respect to any any conservative majority will be confined To the 50 day moving average, which is currently supporting This breakout that we that we saw in the early part of this year from april And as long as we stay above this 127 50 area Then the bias remains and I you know, I have to caveat this really heavily The bias continues to remain For a move higher based on the technicals that I see in front of me We can we can talk about the fundamentals we can talk about the election But if you basically turned off all the news headlines And forgot about the politics and forgot about everything else and you looked at this chart What would this chart be telling you if you put all the fundamentals and the politics to one side If I shut myself in a dark room And looked at this chart I would look at this chart and basically say as long as we stay above 127 50 Then the bias for me remains for a move back towards 130 40 And a move towards 133 if on the other hand We break below 127 50 and obviously you rip that up And you look towards and move back towards around about 125 80 and the breakout level of the 200 day moving average But we've got the 100 day crossing above the 200 day the 50 has already crossed above the 200 day The 200 day is flattening out and as such based on those technicals Then ultimately the outlook for the step for the pound Still remains fairly positive political risk Assigned and that's really I think that is the most difficult thing to do When you're looking at charts or a prism of technical analysis It's trying to park your emotions with respect to what's going on in the political arena And just focus on the actual price action itself And it's something that's very very difficult to do and that's essentially where risk management comes in With respect to how you trade particular markets and for me the risk management part of this here Suggests to me that while we remain above this series of lows that we've got through here Against the dollar or we remain above these lows Then it's very much a by the dip mentality for me with respect to the pound against the dollar Okay, so what we have now is Alan if you're asking me a question, let me just um, let me just send you a message Uh asking me here. I'm just going to send you a message now. Um with respect to Sterling Kiwi because I know that's quite a popular that's quite a popular that's quite a popular currency pair And it has been on previously We'll look at it here. We're above a key support here on sterling kiwi 17980 So again, this sort of chimes with my by the dip mentality. We broke out um last week Sterling kiwi or the beginning or the end of last week um and have basically retest the previous highs From december and also in april here and these highs are now acting as support on the way down So 17980 on sterling kiwi is a key support level if we put an oscillator on that That should tell us whether or not we're over bought or oversold. I generally tend to use the same um Indicator oscillator on all of my charts. It's not a hard and fast rule But certainly in the context of this we do look a little bit Oversold on the sterling kiwi which suggests that we could we we could be due to a bounce Um, just been asked about ozzy dollar and dollar cad. I will certainly come on to them shortly um So just make a quick note of that So that's that sterling kiwi and also sterling yen in terms of the risk trade The yen generally tends to act as a little bit of a safe haven Um, but again here even in sterling yen It does appear to be a little bit of a short term base coming in here and again um, if we look at This this line here drawing that in extending it back There is a little a little bit of support around about 140 140 140 150 And again looking a little bit oversold But you're you have to when you look at these oversold oscillators You have to put them in the context of where the support levels And the resistance levels are as well So we've covered sterling dollar. We've covered euro dollar I'm going to move quickly on to dolly yen because that's at a very very key support level and very Very close to a key support level Um around about 110 20 40 This chart does look a little bit cluttered. So bear with me a little bit Let me just let me just get rid of that So we're currently around the 200 day moving average On dolly yen. We're also above key support level around about 110 20 On the cloud support. So this key level around about where we are now Around about 110 20 if we break below that then there's certainly potential for us to move a little bit lower But at the moment We are trading in a range on dolly yen between 110 20 and 112 40 and until such times As we break out of that range. That's really the way Um, we really ought to be trading it. We shouldn't be looking for the breakout until it's actually been confirmed And we can see that we can see it in an awful lot clearer With respect to here well supported above 110 20 And significant resistance around about 111 70 and 112 40 Right, let's look at tozzy dollar. That's that's um had a decent rebound in the past few days After coming in under some significant pressure Over the course of the past few weeks certainly significant in the context of What we've seen with respect to its performance against the us dollar But what I think is interesting is we've seen a very strong reversal of The lows that we saw at the beginning of may It does appear to be a little bit of decent buying interest Around about this 73 and a half or below 74 And as such I think if we look at the ozzy dollar and we can see and we continue to see decent data out of china Then that should be fairly supportive And I think one of the reasons we saw the ozzy bounce today Was that fairly decent china Kaishin services PMI number that we came in at a four month high Which is offset. I think concerns About the slowdown that we've been seeing in the manufacturing Sector now on thursday I believe it's thursday. We've got the latest trade balance data out of china and that has been Fairly weak in recent months. So I think if that beats expectations on both imports and exports You could see a decent rebound in the ozzy dollar. Maybe back to Maybe back through this 75 2030 area here Back through the 200 day moving average towards this series of peaks around about 75 80 but again, I don't think we're going to see a significant breakout on the ozzy dollar I still think it's pretty much a range trade with decent support around about The 73 and a half 73 80 area and resistance up around 75 80 75 90 What we've also seen in terms of the canadian dollar Is a significant correlation between what's going on in the oil prices now the big story today Has been obviously that I that news out of the middle east that's saudi arabia as Ostrasize shall we say katar Now I don't think that's going to be as big a deal as a lot of people think that it will be But certainly in the context of the oil price. We've seen a little bit of a rebound But katar is a very much a very very small player In terms of oil production. It has much more of a An impact in terms of liquefied natural gas. So in terms of the opec story I don't think it's going to be that big a deal That being said there does appear to be a little bit of an uplift in dollar cad And a weakening cad That that could actually be impacted by whatever slightly weaker oil price So I think the weakening oil price at the moment is near the bottom end of its range But overall ever since we saw that opec agreement Extended we've seen the we've seen the oil price go one way. So I think in the context of the cad price I think the prospect is that we could run into resistance In and around 135 80 or in and around this series of peaks through here And a drift back towards The lows that we saw in the in a few a few days ago around about 134 So I think 134 135 80 is probably the extent of it on dollar cad Now that brings me on to gold because gold has Has enjoyed a significant tick higher over the course of the past few days And we're we're right on the cusp of a very significant resistance line From last week's highs, which I've drawn through here and It's around about 12 1280 but also near the peaks that we saw in april around about 113 Or 1300 I should say and we can see that It's pretty nicely born out through here on the four hour chart And I did actually tweet this chart earlier this morning on twitter And it's also on the chart forums as well In here so you can actually see that from there Approaching train line resistance up near 1280, which is currently where we are at the moment So I'm going to be keeping a particularly close eye On this gold chart To see how it reacts in and around these highs And to establish whether or not we'll get a drift back down to around about 1270 But certainly looking on the four hour chart As well as the daily chart it does look A little bit overbought and that would suggest that The bias is probably going to be Slightly towards the downside and the upside But we could squeeze as high as 1290 in the short term before drifting back down again So let's have a quick look at Brent crude and wti Because what we have seen over the course of the past few days is a significant amount of skepticism On the part of oil traders as to whether or not We're going to see further gains in the oil price And I think this chart more than anything says it all We did see oil prices actually higher initially today But we have since starting to drift back lower again And that sort reinforces what I was saying about the fact that Guitar is very much a small player when it comes to the opaque story Which means that in the scheme of things Even though they've cut the other states have cut off guitar I don't think it's going to have that big a deal in terms of the overall Supply and demand story rising indentories the output the outlook for us shale And the fact that it's going to be very very difficult when you actually look at the numbers to see Given some of the Given given some of the data that we've seen this morning The softer data it's still fairly good what we've seen out of europe with respect to services PMIs But it's significant that it's actually slightly lower than we've than what we saw in april and maybe there's a perception that While The growth that we're seeing Out of europe thus far has been fairly good Maybe it's going to flatline out into the rest of the year Which means ultimately maybe the perception is this is as good as it's going to get um, so I think until that dynamic changes From where currently markets perceive it is Then the bias is likely to be towards the downside on oil prices But as long as opaque members can keep a floor under it currently around about where we are Or where we were in the beginning of may then ultimately, I think price pressure should remain fairly benign At the same time as um, the economy or the global economies Grow at a fit at at their current rate that we're already seeing so looking at this Looking at crude oil prices to find a little bit of a base around about where we saw in may And the upside limited to around about 52 or 53 dollars a barrel Certainly if you draw a line through these peaks here See the peaks are getting progressively lower every time we rally The big concern is if we start to drift back lower Stay below these trend lines not the trend lines moving average moving averages here and tick down towards the bottom end of the range Certainly what has been worrying may over the course of the past Few days has been the divergence between what's been happening with commodity prices Particularly iron ore prices and copper prices and zinc prices and nickel prices And perceptions of global growth Stock markets are telling us one thing in terms of their hitting record highs commodity prices and doctor copper as Most people like to call it is telling us something totally different And that does worry me a little bit One market is not telling the truth and we're seeing it born out in copper prices here Very much a downtrend. It's very much struggling to rebound in any significant way shape or form And as a result, I think we're seeing It's going to be it's going to be very very difficult for it to rally But having said that there's decent support around about the 200 day moving average and the lows that we saw in may but that doesn't speak particularly particularly significant confidence in Whether or not we're going to get an accelerating recovery into the end of this year What I think we'll see is a little bit of a flat liner with a slightly softer bias Right to say sum up pretty much going to start looking at the key sectors now And the key stocks to watch as we lead up to the election on Thursday And these are the ones that I'm particularly looking at BAE systems defense contractors. Why am I looking at that? Well, I'm looking at that because of a paragraph in the labor manifesto that stated That one of the first things the labor would do would suspend all arms sales for use in the middle east until an investigation is Held into Saudi airstrikes in Yemen Labor party will also cease exports to countries. Whether there is a concern they'll be used to violate international law Well, obviously BAE systems is one of the key exports markets Um, it's Saudi Arabia and given the labor party's policy with respect to Saudi Arabia You would expect to see a little bit of a sell-off in BAE systems And we've already seen a bearish reversal on this particular chart Which would suggest to me that there is there is a significant bias for a move lower in BAE systems And the share price there. This is what is called a key reversal day, which we saw on friday we've seen further losses today And we could see further losses over the course of the next few sessions As long as we stay below the peaks that we saw last week Another defense contractor that could come under scrutiny is Babcox It's just signed a significant deal at the beginning of this year to Overhaul the weapons systems on the tried nuclear nuclear missile system And again, I think with respect to a strategic defense review There could be a significant impact there with respect to Babcox because Their their pipeline has around about 30 billion pounds worth of future work Of which refitting the nuclear nuclear weapon systems on trident is one part of that So keep an eye on Babcox and obviously Cobham is also a defense contractor. There's also royal banker scotland and again, there's another paragraph in The labor party manifesto they will take a new approach to rbs launch a consultation on breaking up rbs To create new local public banks that are better matched to their customers needs They will also and this will affect the financial sector Extend the existing stamp duty reverse reserve tax to cover a wider range of assets Ensuring that the public gets to share a financial system profit So that would be a financial transaction tax now I haven't really gone into an awful lot of detail as to the type of effect that would have But ultimately that would affect not only banks. It would affect pension funds Like a viva legal in general an ordinary an ordinary shareholders As as well because ultimately whenever you get a financial transaction tax of any kind Generally, it tends to trickle down to the private investor So that could have a significant effect there and certainly in the context of rbs There does appear to be some decent support building up through 255 This could be a double top a potential double top here. So if we break below 255 We could get a 20p move lower in rbs So I will be keeping a close eye on rbs and the wider financial system as well also be looking at transport With respect to go ahead group national express go ahead group own southeastern and southern rail We've also got national express And stagecoach who own other rail franchises the labor party have also suggested that they will re nationalize royal mail so again That's some enjoying a particularly good day today on the back of An announcement that they've just sold off two plots from their nine elms sorting office to Telford homes to build new properties there for 101 million pounds and again, that's near fairly recent peaks So that would suggest that that remains fairly vulnerable to a little bit of a sell-off there Now energy sector in particular is also likely to be in focus on both parties manifestos the conservative parties the conservative party have said that they will implement a cap on energy prices On variable tariffs and this cap will be subject to review on a six monthly basis now If you look at say company like centrica centrica, which is british gas That's trading near its lowest levels an awful lot of that is already priced in But the difference between the conservative party manifesto and the labor party manifesto with respect to this Is that the labor party has pledged to re nationalize All of the private utilities including water And one of the things they've said they will introduce Straight away is an emergency price cap To ensure that the average dual fuel household energy bill remains below 1,000 pounds per year While they transition to a fair assistant for bill payers So straight away as soon as the labor party gets back into power 1,000 pounds per year energy price cap on variable rates They would also retake control of the energy supply networks, which obviously would affect national grid Who own the infrastructure as well? So looking at national grid you can see that the share price here Is trading pretty much near or just off its lowest levels of this year others british american tobacco Always a good it's always a good place for defensives But there is I noted a clause In the manifesto for the labor party that they say they would introduce a tobacco control plan However, there's not an awful lot of details on what form that would take So it's difficult to establish whether that would be a positive or negative But certainly if you look at the performance of the share price It does remain or it is still at fairly elevated levels and it does have a dividend yield of around about 3% So So that's that those are really the shares that you know, I would keep and keep an eye out on for This week pen and group united utilities and seven Trent all are water utilities So keep an eye on the share prices of those I'm scotch and southern again a energy supplier one of the second owns edf And Central girl British British gas so That's pretty much it for This week ladies and gents If does anyone have any oh footsie 100 nasdaq please sure yet. No problem. My mistake. I forgot about that in In all of that. So have a quick look at the footsie 100 And it does appear actually looking at this chart There's appeared to be a little bit of a reversal starting to take place here in the footsie 100 We've got a very what I would call More we've probably got the beginnings of a little bit of a an evening star formation taking place here So what I'm going to look at here. We are looking a little bit overbought We are starting to look as if we're about to roll over But at the moment, I think the key support area that I'm looking at here I think if we're going to roll over On this particular market is we really need to take out this area of support through 74 95 Through the middle of last week. So the loads of last week I think by dips into 74 95 75 100 if we break below that Then I think there's potential for us to roll over and head towards 7400 so I think While above 74 95 by the dips But we could well roll over If we take out That particular level here and certainly in the context of the dailies It does appear to be a little bit of a short-term top starting to form on the footsie 100 And what we're seeing is a little bit of a sell-off on Technology stocks here. So looking at the NASDAQ I think trying to try and pick the top on the NASDAQ a bit of a dangerous pastime So I'm not even going to attempt to do so if we start to dip back to around around about 5800 on the NASDAQ I think it's a good opportunity to get in because if we look at the Daily chart and then we throw it down into the four hour chart. We can see there's a significant resistance level through here We've really ratcheted higher quite substantially over the course of the past few trading sessions Which suggests to me that the market got caught a little bit short all the way through here And as such any dips that come back here are likely to be well bought into But in the short term we could see a little bit of a short-term top below 5900 look for a drift back down But I think buy into those dips for another rebound higher Certainly looking in terms of the NASDAQ and the fang stocks facebook amazon apple netflix and google Um, I still think there's potential for quite a bit of further upside there And as as such I think trying trying to pick the top in that is a little bit of a dangerous Pastime and has the potential to turn it turn it into a little bit of a widowmaker when it comes to trying to do that Have a quick look at the s&p as well And again, it's a similar sort of story here. If you look at the way the s&p is performed You know while everyone tries to pick the top on that It's it's turning out to be a little bit of a false errand given how heavily weighted the s&p is With respect to the tech sector so us stocks. I still think they're overpriced But ultimately you have to go with the trend and the trend Is up so, you know, basically stay with the trend until such times as a significant evidence that You're going to get a significant turnaround and at the moment. I really don't see any evidence of that Okay, so That's it for this week ladies and gents as I say if you've got any questions Just send me a message on twitter or what have you? otherwise Good luck with Good luck with this week. Good luck with the election and I hope you'll make a lot of money I'll be posting this. I'll be posting this Video on youtube later. If any of you want to listen to it back. Otherwise, I'll talk to you the same time same place Next monday. Thanks very much for listening and speak to you all again next week. Cheers guys