 If you do believe in the theory of stocks trade from supply to supply, well, they have to trade from demand to demand, and here's your demand, right? So you're wearing 380, let's just call it 385. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com. We can update show hope everybody is doing well. Let me be the first to wish everybody a very happy and merry and healthy Christmas hope everybody is doing well. Most important thing, make sure everybody stays healthy as we've seen now ever since Thanksgiving. There's been a huge rise in COVID cases and finally it's hit my home. My son got sick on Wednesday. Okay, I started feeling like crap on Monday and Tuesday, but it turned out and I got tested as well. It turned out I'm just battling some sort of some sort of bug a lot like everybody else. Believe it or not, you still get sick by other things other than COVID. But my son got sick on Wednesday night, tested positive for COVID today is Saturday. He's had literally between 101 to 105 degrees for the last three, four days. Last night was the first time he went under 100 and he woke up this morning under 100 again. So hopefully this is like, you know, the road to recovery. I thought whatever I shook on Friday, I woke up feeling like like crap again today, but you know, it is what it is. Most important, I'm going to take another one of them before I go to take another COVID test. I'm going to take one of those another self home test and we'll see what happens anyway, but hopefully you guys are all well. Hopefully you guys stay well and that's the most important part. You know, you could have as many dreams and hopes and ambition as you want, but hey, if you're not here, it makes it a little bit harder to achieve. So let's talk about it. You know, I was pretty, pretty sell buys going into, you know, Wednesday, Thursday, and especially in Friday. You know, if you look for the week, you had a pretty big move down. Most important part of what we saw in the queues. We finally closed below the 50 day moving average that we talked about on Thursday. You know, we talked, we held it one, two, three, four, five times and Friday we gapped up, right? Hit supply on the five day. If you've been watching this broadcast, you kind of know that's like the shortest term sentiment, at least for me. The five day got rejected and we started rolling over, you know, pretty aggressively again, you're not going to look at the scoreboard and say, wow, the market got killed. I don't look at the Dow. The Dow down 500 doesn't do anything for me. It's more of the NASDAQ, right? NASDAQ members, technology, the speculation money, the institutional money flow that is represented on most index hedge funds and mutual funds books. And that's what people want to own five, 10, 15, 20 years out. And if you look at a lot of those names, you know, they had their bounce, especially on the Fed. They talked about three rate hikes for 2022. I'll see it when I believe it. But, you know, as soon as they announced that $14 candle that looked great and the next day, hey, wanted, you know, we wanted to give the bulls the benefit of the Dow. Rolled right over and then confirmed on Friday, leaving us the first close below the 50 day moving average since, let's see here, since the last time we closed below the 50 was right here, which was October the 13th. So it's kind of a big deal, right? Going into this week, it's kind of a big deal because now if you do believe in the theory of stocks trade from supply to supply, well, they have to trade from demand to demand. And here's your demand, right? So you wear $380, you know, let's call it $385 on the Qs. The next demand is $378. And then obviously then you could start looking at heavier levels. And it's not just, you know, technology, you know, you thought, well, everybody thought, you know, if you're going to have an interest rate hikes throughout the year, who's that good for, right? Who's that good for financials? And financials had their one day in the sun. It's like they always have this one day. It makes you feel like they're about to go. If you guys remember on Thursday's broadcast, I was watching the top of this channel here for confirmation for a day to run in the financials. It never happened. They gapped down and they went lower. And why is that significant? Well, if the group that is going to be benefiting from the interest rate hikes can't muster a rally. Well, what makes you say your favorite stock is going to, right? And when you look at now the NASDAQ and now you have to start looking at the SPY, right? The S&P 500. Let's just use the spies as a barometer. The spies closed on the 50 day moving average. Now the key for the bulls, right? And again, we already got the first close below the 50 day moving average on the NASDAQ, which is predominantly biotech and technology. Okay. And you're going to see a lot of examples in a few minutes how many names have mirrored the NASDAQ 100 very, very perfectly. So you have the spies closed at the 50 day moving average. Now if the spies start giving up, let's just use SPX. I know a lot of you guys love the SPX chart. So, you know, if we held 4620, right, we held this 4600, excuse me, let's call it 4604, right? So we held 4604 on the close. If the bulls give up 4604, you could clearly see how much room you have all the way down to the 4525 level. Again, it's the same theory as stocks trade from supply to supply to supply. That's the way it works. So here's support. Well, if it hits support, here's the next support all the way down to 4525. It looks scary because again, if you're an investor, right, and you're in your sitting in position, 75 points on the spools, it's not small, right? It's definitely not small. So once you have names like the financials that can't even rally, they're going to predominantly play a huge role in the S&P. You kind of, you know, you kind of know where I'm going with this. And when you finally take the leaders of technology and then realize, well, they stopped going up, you know, like an Apple, right? Apple had this really majestic run and phenomenal run. Nobody, you know, nobody's saying Apple is not the greatest thing since sliced bread. And it's like, it's going to be, it's not going to be higher, you know, five years from now. But again, if you look at the theory, it has to at least test this 167 level before even makes even a soft bottom. So once you have names like Apple reversing, and then you have names like Tesla that is, you know, one day away. You know, we talked about Friday, phenomenal pivot on Thursday going, going into Friday. We closed below 930. We talked about this area potentially landing for Friday that 912, 905 level. That was it. I mean, it hit perfectly pre-market that 909 level and it rallied back. And again, cool, it rallied back. Well, you're going to see the common denominator, right? What happened? It hit the five-day moving average and got reversed, right? Reverse right back down. And that's exactly what happened with the Q's, right? They hit the five-day moving average and reverse down. Look in the video, right? Hit the five-day moving average and reverse down. And the video is starting to look like a phenomenal macro short now, okay? There's been a lot of call buying deep out of money short term, which again, nobody really understands why. Maybe it's an arm deal, maybe whatever the case may be. But the scoreboard is the scoreboard. The damn thing closed right on the 50-day moving average as well. So this thing loses the 50-day. You got this and then you got this all the way down as well. Amazon did exactly the same thing. Google did exactly the same thing. And now over the weekend, you have news that Disney is... Or Google is dropping Disney, or Disney is dropping Google off the YouTube platform. Whatever, it's not a good thing for Google. So it looks like lower prices there as well. Even names like Coke, right? Names like the consumer cyclical name, the Main Street American names, that had a phenomenal run. Dreamboat run from the bottom. Coke went from 52 to 60 in two weeks. Even this thing hit the, I don't want to say the eject button, but hit this kind of quote-unquote parabolic top close below the 5-day moving average. Now if you look at Coke, right? Take a mental snapshot of Coke, right? 5-day moving average. Look at Apple, right? First time a close below the 5-day moving average started this wave down. So even names that were really, really strong are starting to roll over. Again, is this panic mode? Get rid of all your investments? No, if you are an investor, you're an investor. Your timeline is completely different than a person who trades, actively trades the market day to day. Whether you're a bull, bear, or indifferent, the greatest part about this market right now is giving you a tremendous, excuse me, a tremendous average shoe range on both sides. Ridiculous. Like the ranges right now are super-sized. And what's cool about this type of environment, when the measure potential becomes amplified, well, then you don't have to take on a lot of risks. You could just get a bigger move, and that's what's really, really cool. And the second part about it is, and you hear a lot of people talk about how erratic this market is, and I'm one of them. Man, I couldn't figure out in the middle of the week which way the market wanted to go. But again, it doesn't matter. It's not a contest which you're trying to impress your peers or some guy on Twitter. You know, this is your money. It's your money. You worked hard for your money. You want to allocate your money as fiscally responsible as possible. But what's cool about technical analysis is you don't need to guess, right? You don't need to guess which way the market's going to go. Now, if again, if you look at the final scoreboard, as you could possibly tell, the queues are under the 50-day move-in journey, which the spies are closed right on the 50-day move. I mean, obviously, I'm so biased going into this week, but it doesn't make a difference if I'm wrong and everything starts rallying. Again, like I say every single day, what's the worst case that happens? Bulls reclaim higher channels. We buy stocks. Crazy, right? So that's the cool part about technical analysis. You don't need to be right. You don't need to have an ego or put yourself in a position that you are careless with your finances. The most important part is there's always channels, right? There's long channels, there's short channels. And if you are patient enough to let those channels develop, you don't need to figure out which way the market's going to go. Having an opinion is an important 100%, right? Again, you have to have an opinion. Your eyes don't lie. You see where everything is. You see where a lot of stocks are looking like going into Monday's session. But the most important part is you now have to be sophisticated enough and responsible enough and patient enough to let your thesis play out. If it plays out, that's great. If it doesn't play out, well, again, you've got to figure out what went wrong. Is the market just completely irrational at times? And it will be, OK? Or is it something that you are omitting from your process or just not getting it just because of your development stage along the way that you can probably get and will get down the line? So I think this market is probably going to continue to act this way going into Christmas, right? We've got a full week of Christmas. I think there's going to be a lot of volatility. I think there's going to be a lot of liquidation names. And yeah, are you going to have a name like AMC that's going to come out? What are they called? Apes, dogs, zebras. What the hell are they called? Those Wall Street guys. Anyway, you've got a name like this. Once in a while, it's going to pop up. Again, movie theaters of the future. This is your thing. This is your thing. Cool. I'd rather be long than anything else. Or I'd rather be short than anything else. But again, to each his own. If you like real real estate, invest in real real estate. If you would like a virtual real estate, you better hope you have a strong Wi-Fi connection and a 22-year-old kid that's a massive influencer on TikTok one day doesn't wake up and say, yo, this shit is so lame, yo. So to each his own. That's the cool part about the market. Everybody doesn't need to fit in everywhere. The circle doesn't need to fit into the square. The square doesn't need to fit into the triangle. There's multiple avenues how to trade. There's multiple ways to risk on, to risk off. And in time, if you're in year one, you're going to realize that by year 10, you might be trading a lot different than you started out in year one. And that's okay. The beautiful part is you see what works for you along the way. You see where you're paying threshold. You see where your finances kind of fall into risk and arbitrage and all that good stuff that kind of makes this wonderful journey a reality. And the most important part is just be diligent one day at a time. Don't put a lot of pressure on yourself. And the most important part is stay in business. That's the cardinal rule. Stay in business. So I don't care if you trade options, small caps, crypto, NFTs, pivots, Amazon, shm, Amazon, dog shit, night shit, whatever you want to, you want to, you want to trade. Trade it as a professional and do whatever it takes possible to make sure you are still in business. So going into next week, again, I am so biased until I'm not, right? It's so biased until I'm not. There's a lot of names that look really, really good. I'm pretty much fixated, you know, I'm pretty much fixated into the, probably into, more into the semiconductor space. You got a name like Lamb Research. First close below this whole rising wedge. Again, if this thing confirms down below Friday's channel, look which room you have to go. NVIDIA, I really, really love. The video closes and starts confirming the 50-day moving average. You got, you know, you got anywhere between 15 to 23 points to the downside. Rivian finally gave it up on Friday. It lost a hundred day, right? A hundred dollar area we talked about on Friday's, on Thursday's video. It lost 95-50 IPO lows when all the way down to 92. The only two things that held this damn thing up from losing its 90 handle, it was on SSR, right? And it hit perfectly this linear regression line. So we have to watch this. Maybe, you know, kind of goes sideways for the next couple of days, but once it loses its linear regression line this week, man, this thing doesn't look good here. Even names like Lowe's, right? That had a really, really big aggressive run, really aggressive run. The whole do-it-yourself home improvement. First close below, first close below rise and support. We got to watch that. Coke I'm watching for maybe a day-to-reversal below the five-day moving average. Again, some profit-taking there, maybe as well. I mean, there's a whole bunch, guys. There's a whole bunch. If you go through your research over the weekend you're going to see a lot of names that look like crap. I think that's the best way of saying, look like crap. So it's very, very important to do your research, have an opinion, and let that opinion play out. Guys, have a great weekend. God bless, stay blessed, stay healthy, folks. Stay, stay healthy. That's the most important part. People who talk about this is not a big deal. You obviously don't have kids when you're child, right? I don't care about me. I think a lot of you guys feel the same way. I don't care about me. I'm a grown man. I've been around for 47 years. But when your child is sitting there and suffering with 105 fever and there's nothing you can do about it, don't tell me or don't tell anybody else it's not a big deal. Guys, love you. I wish you all the best. God bless. I'll see you all.