 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Market Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN 8.30 AM Thursday morning 60 minutes ago until the opening bell. Great introduction by our man Basil Chapman for a special 8 AM program. Right now kicking things off, we got the markets in negative territory, S&Ps negative by 23 points, trading at 3,083. You get the Dow futures right now, now 233,25,792, Nasdaq futures negative by 36 points, trading at 99,47. We have oil basically flat at $38. You get the 10-year yield sitting right at 0.7%. Over in Europe, you had the DAX down about 1.4%, the FTSE down 1%, KAKAROL down 1.5%. Over in Asia, the Nikkei down about a half a percent, Shanghai actually positive a bit, and the HSI negative by a bit as well. Always fun at 8.30 in the morning when we do the program on Thursdays, especially recently because we get weekly jobless claims, hitting the tape as we come on the air right at 8.30. That number coming in at 1.508 million, they were only looking for 1.3. Folks, that's 208,000 extra people that are filing a weekly jobless claim that the market was expecting. That hitting the tape right at 8.30. With that in mind, let's take a look at the markets. And this is the week that we've had. So going back to last Thursday, Friday, here's the open on Sunday night in the futures. Early Monday, right? We trade to 29.23. Talk about an acceleration, you then trade up about 200 plus S&P points reaching a high just prior to the market open on Tuesday of 31.56, quite a number. We're sitting right now, 3,085. You see this area though, we spiked down there on Tuesday. We spiked down to this area at about 3,065 or change overnight. And guess what, folks? We're coming right near that number. Now these are 15 minute bars, let's zoom in a bit to see if we're getting any volatility on that weekly jobless claims number, a little bit of volatility, a little bit of a spike down at 8.30 from 3,090 to about 3,080, nonetheless, 3,075, the low we had at about 8 AM. Jumping over to the Dow, down 208 points, zooming in on the action this morning. You see the volatility on the jobs number as well overnight last night. We reached a low just above 25,600. Jumping over to Crude, Crude EIA numbers yesterday, little bit of volatility at 10.30 on that number. Crude above $38 at 38.29, gold off about $5, check out that drop really since about five in the morning, you had gold all the way up to 17. What is the high? 17.49, 20. You just touched down to 17.24, gold, excuse me, gold catching a bid on that weekly jobless claims number up at 17.31 now as the market's slipping off a bit and notes and bonds, some higher price and lower yield the 10-year, you're up about eight ticks at 138.27, the 30-year up a full point and one tick at 1.7706 and why not? We'll check in on Bitcoin, Bitcoin up about $130.94.55. We're under 9000 to start off the week on Bitcoin. Okay, jumping around to headlines in action. So an interesting one here to see how it plays out. If it becomes something, you get the president, of course, tweeting out, becoming a partisan affair, John Bolton, former security advisor. His book is out saying that Trump asked China for help with the 2020 election to buy agricultural products in states that were important to Trump. And you're gonna see that play out, folks, the elections in full swing. We got less than five months, I wonder how that's gonna play out. People angry almost on both sides, as in if you're a fan of President Trump, maybe he's a disgruntled employee, I personally don't believe that. And if you're not, then you're actually frustrated that he didn't testify. Trump, the White House put the squash on that, Bolton said that he wouldn't and he would allow that to play out. Nonetheless, he did not testify as part of the impeachment hearings. So that's gonna play out. That's not coming out yesterday as the president tries to stop that book from coming out. But the excerpts of that book are already out, so this fight is just gonna play out continually. Okay, jumping around to some other stories, before we get into the COVID numbers, we're gonna get into the COVID numbers after the break. But they're a big story when you get this market approaching, I mean, to put things in context here. I'm gonna jump around a little bit, I know I got a few things to take a look at. But we've been basically trading flat for about two months in these markets when you look at it. So we have the highs, excuse me, you back it up, even an April 17th, okay? You trade from 21.74, we reach a price level on April 17th of 28.85, okay? We just touched down to 29.23, so you're talking about 40 S&P points you were within on June 15th of where we were on April 17th, right? This run we had from May 14th up to non-farm payrolls basically, quite a run we had till June 5th, probably a little bit too much as this market's pulled back. Maybe this is a range of 28 to 100 to 3,000. Maybe the range is more of 2800 to 3200, it's gonna bounce around. But when you look at the fact, not many people would realize that we were basically just sideways for two months. That one little pullback from June 9th down to June 15th basically gave back all of it to almost that level. And if you back it up to where we were, April 29th, you were as high as 29.59. So keep that in mind when you see this in terms of thinking that it's been all positive. We got most of that back in the span of March 23rd to April 17th. And from there, we've had some volatility. We had the great run that we had on May, but you're gonna see numbers spiking dramatically and this run probably getting the head of itself a little bit, at least in the S&P. And the NASDAQ 100, talk about the tech stocks, they're gonna benefit in the long run. Quite a chart there, still over the highs that we had prior to COVID. The Dow, when you back this up, pretty similar action in terms of April 17th. There it is on the chart, 24,327. And you just traded down to 24,409, within 100 points. Same thing on the Dow, right? Quite a run. Dow traded up 5,000 points almost from May 14th, 22,704 to 27,624. We traded up almost 5,000 points from May 14th to June 9th. And guess what, folks? You were within 100 points on June 5th of where you were trading at on April 17th. So keep all of that in mind. As you see, we're right back here. We are not out of the woods on COVID yet and I'm gonna jump around. So this is the Massachusetts numbers just for comparative. Thankfully, the numbers continuing to be negligible. We only had 87 new cases up there. I know we had a lot of Boston listeners. Shout out to my Boston brother and sister and June 15th, low numbers, right? For some stark contrast, folks, what we're dealing with in Florida, some of the other states in Arizona. Just to jump over, quite the case count going on in Florida. We're approaching about 3,000 new cases a day, folks. Beijing had 150 cases and shut down basically the whole entire city. As you see, 2,700, 2,600, the seven-day average now above 2,000. One of the questions, rightfully so, what is going on with testing, right? Is testing expanding and these numbers have always been high and we're just catching more numbers now? Well, here are the numbers, folks, and it's not good, okay? Here is the positive rate of people that are testing positive, okay? This is when you include multiple tests per person, but if you want the straight out numbers, how many people tested positive, how many individuals were tested that day? On June 16th, so we're lagging by two days right now, Florida tested over 10% positive up from 4.4% 96 hours before that, okay? 10.3, more than one out of 10 people on the 16th were testing positive. So keep that in mind when you see the market near all-time highs, folks, bringing it back to stocks. There's no way this volatility is done. And as we go into the first break, we got the VIX right now, trading at 34.91. Stay tuned, folks. We'll come back over what equities we have on Thursday. We'll be right back. Many of our new listeners have heard about the Tiger's Den. The Tiger's Den is a lively community where professional traders and investors can meet, exchange ideas and information in a comfortable, moderated atmosphere. 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We hit a low of 3,080 on that number and we're now right back to where we were before weekly jobless claims. So jumping into more of the data within that weekly jobless claims number, I mean, you see the trend, folks, but that is a flattening curve. We're all familiar with curves these days, not for weekly numbers. But if we continue to see that number, that is going to be a big number, folks. Continuing claims or those who have been receiving unemployment benefits for at least two weeks, nudged lower to 20.5 million, folks. It only dropped 62,000 from the previous week. Well, you know what that means? That means last week it was 20.562 million and this week it's 20.5, okay? We need a much bigger recovery than that as faster, a faster recovery to correlate with what we're seeing in the S&Ps, folks. We have 20.5 million people continuing weekly jobless claims right now. That number only changing by less than 100,000 the last week. And you get the S&Ps on a tear, folks, at 3,100 practically. Keep all that in mind. Okay, other news stories going on out there, Amazon. So talk about content, pretty interesting stuff here in terms of the growth that we've seen in the likes of Netflix people signing up for Disney Plus. Amazon, I'm sure, trying to capitalize on the shift to online and people at home and consuming that content. Amazon plans to air Premier League soccer matches for free on Prime and Twitch. Excuse me, they're gonna show some of their games, some of them June, July, and July again. They're gonna show 25 of the 64 games free as they try and bring people into that Prime ecosystem. Pretty remarkable to see that maybe that shift beginning with sports. You'd say it's only a matter of time until some of those. I mean, talk about, there's only a few things right now, folks, that you gotta consume live, that you can't watch in one of them being live sports. There is no appetite in general for live sports after they occur. The major networks, NBC, Fox, CBS have a pretty good stronghold on that. And they do because they're able to sign multi-billion dollar contracts with those leagues. But I imagine you're gonna see at some point, I think it was Amazon already airing one NFL game last year that you could watch it on. I know Facebook trying to get into the mix of that as well. And you're gonna see a shift, folks. And this is the beginning of it, Premier League soccer. Huge in Europe, some of my friends into European soccer over here. And they're gonna be showing those games for free as a Prime member. All right, other news, just wanted to go over the volatility of the markets. Keep in mind, folks, we get the markets down more than half a percent right now. Staggering volatility numbers, when you look at how often we're between 1% to 2%, to 3%, to 6.9% that the Dow is moving on a daily basis. Ford, they're gonna get into the auto driving, autopilot business in their cars. They're launching a new driver system to compete with Tesla's autopilot and GM's Supercruise as they try and keep up with the giant of them all lately, Tesla. And Nintendo shares in Japan, soaring to levels not seen in more than 10 years, and analysts using caution. So the Japanese game maker surged on Thursday to levels not seen in a decade. Investors want to stay away from the stock according to one analyst, and they closed at 50,000 plus yen. It traded just higher than that per share earlier, and the first time across the 50,000 level since 2008 on a little bit of optimism in Nintendo, two possible reasons why? One reason, due to the announcement of a new Pokemon game. We all remember the craze of that Pokemon. And they got another game in there, Animal Crossing. Nonetheless, Nintendo, I was always a big fan of Nintendo. All right, yields rising higher on some Coronavirus fears to wrap up where we are exactly, you get the 10 year now under 7 tenths percent. That was at 0.701 when I started the program. They're updating this 0.695 right now on that yield on the 10 year. Okay, jumping around to some of the different equities moving today. You have Kroger out with their earnings. Looks like they beat, they're actually trading a little bit lower though. Supermarket chain earnings $1.22, they beat $1.09. Revenue above estimates as well, expects to exceed the outlook it issued less than three months ago. Now this is gonna be long term, right? You see the volatility, but pretty quickly everyone figured out that, guess what, everyone's in the grocery store folks. That's the one place that everybody is and is still shopping. But look at that acceleration, actually trading lower on their numbers. From 33.79, we're down about 10 cents right now from yesterday's open. Yesterday's closed, excuse me, at 32.81. Carnival, with their numbers quarterly loss of 3.30 a share. Market was looking for $1.56. They expect a net loss for the second half of this year, but they're seeing growing demand for 2021 bookings. Interesting to see how that plays out. Yesterday, all these cruise ships getting hammered because the Norwegian came out and said they're pushing back even the possible start date into late September, at least. And I assume that might get pushed back to folks. The one thing that can't operate is cruise ships. Carnival, even from yesterday, you were just at 22 bucks on Tuesday morning. You're gonna open under 18, it's 17.75 on Carnival with their numbers. Ford, as we talked about, they're looking into hands-free driving and its new Mustang Mach-E model, the all-electric crossover. We'll go on sale later this year. Software is gonna be available in fall of 2021. You can see the catch up. A company like Ford, why does a company like Ford need until the fall of next year to have active drive assist? That's where you see a real difference for the likes of Tesla or something like that. Ford at 629, Tesla at 1,000. There's your separation, folks. They should have been investing in technology way ahead of this to see this coming. So AMC, their creditors are saying not so fast to their debt restructuring proposal according to the journal. The plan would give private equity firm Silver Lake Partners a top ranking claim on the company's assets. Creditors saying, I don't know if I like that idea. AMC, talk about some pain, 535. Now this one, folks, quite an interesting story, though. They were already in big trouble. You back it up pre-COVID and we're sitting at 625. And you're flirting with similar numbers to pre-COVID when the movie theater industry in trouble before COVID, let alone after COVID. Spotify, they struck a deal with Kim Kardashian for a criminal justice podcast. Spotify really getting into that podcast business. Of course, they signed Joe Rogan to what could be a $100 million annual deal. Look at this chart, it just doesn't stop, folks. That's yesterday's action on Spotify, all right? Probably on that news, maybe not because we're trading even higher. I mean, just since Monday we went from $177 to $207. You back this up again, Spotify, maybe that was the Joe Rogan right around here. I think it might have been. Remarkable action. Fitbit, Kugel's planned acquisition of fitness track and maker under scrutiny by Australian regulators who are expressing concern that deal may hurt competition in the digital advertising and health markets. I guess, Fitbit, pretty small player compared to some of the likes of you at Apple Watch, right? I mean, they're gonna be the biggest one of them all in terms of wearable technology, we'll see how that plays out. So Tesla speaking of, excuse me, they got a price rise on their target from Jeffery, excuse me, to $1,200 a share from $650. Seems like that was an update long due. Nonetheless, Tesla, we pulled it up at about 1,000. US Steel's trading lower, they're gonna raise $429 million through a common stock offering of 50 million shares. We'll pull up them in a moment. And Hertz, how about they're not gonna push out 500 million in shares anymore? Because the SEC said, we're not gonna let you swindle investors to that tune. Hertz was frozen yesterday. Look at that volatility actually on that number. When his eyes, 235 in the morning closed it out at about two, we're down to 183. Stay tuned, folks, we'll be right back to finish up the program. I'll be back in three minutes, come on. Back in the day, I joined the Hotel California in 2006. And like many of you, was drawn in by, as well as, Whatever you think about, you bring about whatever you focus on growth. 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Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to tfn.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's tfn.com and hit Watch Tiger TV for the latest market information. Welcome back, folks. We get the S&Ps negative by about 15. So you're seeing the market tick up a bit. We spiked down at 8.30 to about 3,000. And let's get the real, there's your 15-minute bar at 8.30. Spiked to 3,080, and you've actually seen a little bit of a pop. I like to sometimes just to really see where we're at in terms of the news. There's the 8.30 to begin. You see the spike, but look at that run. These are minute bars as in we were just up at about 3,094. If you head on over to the front page of TFNN, folks, you will see Steve Rhodes. We got a treat. Steve Rhodes is going to be filling in for our man, Larry Pesvento, coming up live at 9 o'clock. If you've got a call, give him a call, folks, 877-927-6648 for that market open, Mastering Probability. Steve, great newsletter out there. You got to check it out. He was a number one market timer in 2018, all basically tied, missed by decimal points to number two in 2019, folks. That's quite an achievement for two years to be right there on the top. Check that out. What I wanted to go over real quick is you get with any product and newsletter we have, whether it's Mastering Probability, the Gold Report, Basil Chapman just did this program at 8 o'clock. He's got a lot of great archive webinars on the opening call. The weekend, folks, great time to check out these subscription services. They come with a ton of videos, some of them. Steve has put together some great webinars just for an idea of what you get when you sign up. You still get your 30-day money back guarantee. He's got the oscillator on change line for his subscribers, the ultimate reversal pattern, how to spot and avoid the next bear market, five easy steps, a number of them, folks, sign up. Weekend, great time to check it out. On the front page, Steve Rhodes, Mastering Probability, and the Gold Report as well. Tom puts out his reports on Monday morning. You also get, I was pulling this up, you get archive webinars for the Gold Report. The last one Tom did in September, talking about the next leg up in gold is 1794. Find out why. All right, he also has the gold market from the beginning of the bull market in 2001 until now. That was in the end of 2018. Both of those immediately available an hour and 15 minutes. You can watch those if you sign up for the Gold Report. So check it out, September of 2019, right? We pull up the gold market, if I can get this in. There's September of 2019, and we made this 1788, almost 1794. Check it out on the front page, folks. Stay tuned, Steve Rhodes coming up live for...