 Hi, my name is Leo Moreau currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis if you're new a warm welcome to you And if you're returning an equally warm welcome to you, don't forget to like subscribe and share As it helps the YouTube algorithm and the videos get highly Ranked and before we get into the fundamentals and technicals for this week I want to inform you about a webinar that myself and Mark Chapman are holding a webinar this week It's absolutely free first day is going to be on Wednesday the 16th of February And I'm going to show you the three steps to generating a profitable Forex trade idea, right when it comes to fundamental analysis a lot of people think that fundamentals are just looking at Forex factory and Taking a trade when there is good news or you know selling when there's bad news It's nothing of the sort and this What I'm going to show you in the webinar is stuff that will work forever because it's really how the Institutions trade and how they make their trading decisions with fundamentals These are the three steps to generating a profitable forex trading idea and ideas and it will consistently work Over and over and over again because this is the mechanics of the market And if you want to join the the free webinar on Wednesday day one Just a email info at trading 180.com with the subject title webinar. That's it You know you can put a little thing in there. Just saying I want to join the webinar but just a subject title and I will you'll be put on the list. I'll put you on the list for the day one and also day two Which is with Mark Chapman and he will be showing you the footprints of the market Whales and how to trade alongside them and this is really the market makers Bible now And regardless of what you think, you know regardless of what has been taught online on YouTube on tiktok on Facebook Those guys have no idea right and it's not me disparaging anybody, but marks Mate I guess was a next market maker and he'll tell you about anyone who knows mark who knows me Will understand this to be fact what you see online about market makers is totally off Right marks mate was a market maker retires What was a retired is a retired market maker and the concepts that he's going to show you some of the Concepts gonna show you on Thursday are the business model of the Market maker, right? It's not anything you see online. It's not the concepts of what you think the market makers do That's just a massive echo chamber, you know made up by you know certain people This is totally totally totally different. This is the truth anyways Again, that's day two on Thursday, right the 17th for February the again email info at trading 180 comm with the subject title webinar And you will be included and put on the list and I really highly You know Recommend that you at least tend Thursday and myself and my webinar of course, but you know the two days and then we have a weekend retreat The coming weekend as well So anyways, let's get into this week's fundamental Analysis and looking at really the news and the calendar For this week so Monday the 14th for February happy Valentine's Day for anyone who's separating and celebrating Valentine's Day, we've got really you know, Christine Lagarde speaks whenever there's a central bank speech That's always worth Paying attention to GDP growth rate as well for Japan that would dictate what these central bank does with interest rates on Tuesday We've got the Fed and so the RBA meeting a country today. We've got the RBA meeting Reserve Bank of Australia We've got unemployment for the for the pound and again. This is all important because it shows really what the What the economy is doing and whether central banks can really afford to high crates at some point Again, we've got some employment changes change numbers On Wednesday, we've got Chinese inflation, which is worth a watch and then we've got again the pound inflation rate year on year Again inflation rate for the cat her for the Canadian dollar again, it's expected I think what's the forecast forecast expected to be to be higher so again any forecast that expected to be higher and inflation piles pressure on the On the central bank to have to hike rates and if it does obviously come out as that then you know, we'll It's pretty much a foregone conclusion Again FOMC minutes on the Wednesday, which is definitely going to be you know that the highlight of the the week on Thursday We've got unemployment rate for the for the Australian dollar and then Japan inflation again expected to probably tick up just a little bit but not by much so again that Bank of Japan are expected to just kind of hold rates at the moment for the foreseeable future and then on Friday Nothing really nothing really important. I know it says that's important, but it really isn't and then that is that so So let's get into the dollar index and the dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength against a basket of major currencies like the the pounds the euro and the yen and I've kept last week's analysis on here because last week I was saying my bias was really to the upside with the dollar and and So yeah, I was looking at Eva, you know Confluence of looking at dollar index buys for example with prices came down to that 95 area 9460 then I was looking at potential buys And I was even you know looking at you know price came out at 94 area that would be a definitely a great buy and Just getting into I guess some fundamentals on the on the dollar We were looking at well this week the feds bullard Back supersized hike six full point by the first of July so inflationary shop needs big response He says in interview and the St. Louis Fed chief defers to power on size of March increase and this is really because that the US inflation is at its highest level since when in like 40 years for decades so The Fed the Federal Reserve the bank have to do something about inflation which is to hike rates And so they were wrong about Inflation being transitory or temporary they thought it would come down and it's you know getting out of hand not only with In the US economy, but we've with economies all around the world so But the US are literally now looking to hike more To try to combat inflation So we've seen the Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard said he supports raising interest rates But a full percentage point by the start of July including that the first half point hike since 2000 in response to the hottest inflation in four decades so You know there is that going on so with the you know, US dollar You know aggressively hiking, you know, you should see upside now again Nobody knows what happened in the short term because in the short term the you know prices really just an auction and all the filling mechanism for the banks to try and get the best prices and you know to To get the liquidity, right? So you could have prices, you know It's not saying prices this week you're gonna go all the way to the upside because like I said nobody knows But generally what we should, you know, know between now and the first Fed rate hike and the second one potentially in in maybe June July times is that you know, the bank are actively seeking to Hike rates so prices should want to continue going higher In the medium to long term so for me my bias has not changed So let me just get rid of some of this drawing from last week So for me again, just really pull backs and I can now need in this up a little bit When it comes to a bit of a demand zone, so There we are we've got some hidden demand there So any pull backs into the zone here and then looking for long trades not on the dollar index But on just just as far as confidence of prices do pull back he's ought to see some bullish price action. That would be quite nice You know for confidence on buying any of the other dollar currencies So moving on to the dollar yen and the dollar yen again last week's analysis We were looking at you know potential pull backs because you never really want to buy at an expensive area You don't want to buy at highs You're looking to buy it, you know on pullbacks and what I was looking for if I'm long dollars obviously is a pullback, right? So we need prices to pull back. Unfortunately prices didn't pull back Which kind of changes this dynamic? So let me just start off a brand new clear chart and what we've got now is you know demand zone there Demand zone there, and I'll just draw this one right here as well Just to keep it nice and simple so for now for me Anyway prices are coming back into a zone now We do also have risk off sentiment risk of sentiment meaning that there's some fear Uncertainty and some doubt coming into the market, and that is really driven by Russia tensions a potential invasion by You know by Russia So on Ukraine so if that does escalate and nobody knows at the moment whether it will you know It result in the full-blown, you know war out on that war if it does The Japanese yen is likely to strengthen right is like strengthen So you could see prices, you know come to the downside for me though I prefer to still buy the dollar at certain levels because at some point I'm a believer that you know the The war will be resolved right there are We no one wants war and We generally want peace as as human beings so You know, I think I think that if war does you know break out. I think it may I don't know if it lasts, you know too long Who knows but the point being is that at some point war will be priced in it won't be a phenomena anymore unfortunately, but but for me I think that the When it comes to the dollar, I'm still a buyer of the dollar really and I'm a believer that you know, there will be a Resolution to the Russia Ukraine tensions there will be an agreement etc. So if prices do come down to any of these demand zones I'm still looking at buy trades At these areas providing obviously I get an entry trigger and what the the actual setup is Moving on to the dollar Swiss and similar to the to the dollar yen Last week again still looking for buy trades looking for pullbacks Insert certain areas we have made higher highs higher lows. Let me just delete last week's analysis there's a nice demand zone there and This whole area is demand So if prices do pull back into this area, but similar to the the dollar yen The Swiss Frank will tend to strengthen as a risk of currency a safe haven currency So you could see prices start to go, you know through these demand zones when it comes to fundamentals and recents I mean, there's no demand zone no technical analysis level that's going to stand in the way of Of what the market thinks the value of a currency is the market is not driven by technical analysis It's driven by you know liquidity and And really in value, right? So Any pullbacks into demand zones for me are buying opportunities And that's really where my biases and all risk off does is just push prices down to where I want to be You know a nice a nice buyer and buying at value. So that's where we are I feel look if you are looking at buying the the Swiss Frank I think you know anywhere up in these zones here is decent Although those zones have been touched several times to just be aware that the more times a level is touched and zone As touched is that the weaker it becomes no longer a bargain anymore because it was a bargain first time here Bargain a bit of a bargain there, but not so much and obviously that price becomes starts to become just average now So yeah, that's where we are my bias is definitely to the to the upside in the medium to long term for sure Moving on to the dollar CAD and the dollar CAD again from last week's analysis When you've got two strong currencies or two central banks that look into high crates then you will You know, you'll have generally a sideways moving market a ranging market of value auction and and so for me this was you know predictable and So yeah, I'm not really looking to trade this pair. Let me just delete some of this last week's analysis of and again It's just a case of if you think that you want to be a buyer of the US dollar Looking for pullbacks into that area or a reversal at that supply zone Not really a pair. I'm interested in like I said two central banks looking to hike At the moment. So so you're gonna get this this type of price action. You really want to see Pairs that are diverging in you know, monetary policy Although overall that that divergence is coming a bit coming to an end with certain pairs moving on to the Pound dollar and again to central banks You know pretty much Hiking rates aggressively. So again, you expect to see a fair fight, right? You've got you know price action just literally over the past five days has gone in this in this range So again, just the lead in last week's analysis And looking at really the pound fundamentals as well The you the UK economy Sees best annual growth since World War two in 2021 So there was some really good news up with the pounds the GDP expanded 7.5% in 2021 put in UK at the top of the G7 league So search came despite December's drop when Omicron hit spending. So again the pound doing really well one of the best You know currencies when it comes to Oh Economies when it comes to GDP growth. So so from that perspective again, you've also got the US dollar doing really well economic growth So like I said, there's no divergence there, right? You see in price kind of moving this Or a bit value of the of the pound dollar being accepted between is high and it's low So but if you do want to get long on that on that dollar, then it's literally a pullback into that zone there I think probably you're looking at maybe some of the 137s 137 fifties for a decent short trade If you're looking to buy the the US dollars if you're by looking to buy the British pound, it's really Pullbacks to demand zones if you're buying the US dollar And it's and then it's pretty much pullbacks to any kind of supply zones but again, not really a currency pay that I'm looking to get involved in and The euro dollar the euro dollar. So this was an interesting one We got involved in this trade many traders in the the group got involved in this trade so that was And we're up a few maybe about 100 150 pips depending on where they depending where they got in some traders got in at the 1480 area. I got in at the I think was the 1473 area right around here. So yeah with with tensions going on in In Russia and Europe probably being the most affected You know, it was pretty much a nice trade so far taking partial profits And so that's worked out to be quite nice Also as well looking at Europe from a fundamental perspective ECB overreaction on prices could stymie growth rain warns. So The European Central Bank needs to look beyond the current spike in inflation as it sets a monetary policy to avoid choking off Economic growth governing council member Oli Reince said and the reason why is because if you rate high crates a bit too much the economy might not be able to to handle Expensive borrowing and lending and so what then tends to happen is businesses start to struggle with higher repayments and then that you You know, you get a stagnant economy and potentially economies can go into You know back into recession, right? So from that perspective if you you know, you got central banks I've got to be more gentle with hiking rates. So You know that the problem is with the with Europe is that their their economy isn't Growing as much as say for example, the UK or the US So from that perspective again last week's analysis my biases was to the short side You know is pretty much is worked out quite nicely now I do think that the downside is going to be kept and not to say in the same It's gonna come all the way down here. It could do of course, but my my I'm pretty Convinced I should say that maybe the 130's maybe even down to potentially the 112 is making maybe gonna be the absolute limit of this move Because yeah, now you've got the the euro looking they are looking to high-grace and change policies So I think downside may be capped, but it was a really nice really nice trade set up that we saw in the group and up over about over a hundred pips on This one. So again going forward. I probably think if you are looking to buy the euro again We are looking at that 112 for area for a buy trade I think if you're looking at, you know, shorting right now Think the trade's probably already gone depending on your risk rewards and any kind of pullbacks potentially up to this area Or just a bit higher would be probably more advantageous if you are in this trade It's probably advisable to at least look to take some profits at some point You know, we've got our targets that we look to take profits at but but yeah Decent trade again my bias is still to the downside for now and buying the US dollar over the euro Moving on to the Australian dollar US dollar and we did get a spike higher this week And again, there was a nice shorting opportunity. So prices had you know spiked beyond that supply zone there and then as We saw from a risk-off perspective nice nice trade to the downside. I'm not really interested in trading this to be fair But you know, technically there was a there was a nice level just above that and prices in a risk-off environment You know, the US dollars should Strengthen if you do want to get long enough Australian dollar, there is a demand zone right here Demand which potentially you can get involved in looking at any kind of long trades To that side or even better that would be a nice a nice price to the to the upside But again in a risk-off environment if risk-off continues Nobody knows we'll find out on you know, Sunday evening but if there's no resolution then I think the dollar should continue to to strengthen and Talking about risk-off Gold is now, you know, finally reacted and it's reacted really more to the to the risk-off sentiment That's happened. So we see Gold, you know money flowing into gold piling into gold You know, there was a really nice area a couple weeks ago to look to get long that I'd identified and had you Got involved in that, you know thinking that gold was gonna go higher on risk-off tensions Then that's what had to be a fantastic trade For now though, you've got these areas here of demand So if risk-off continues then, you know, basically he's looking for pullbacks And as I always say is you know, you might see a supply zone above But it doesn't mean you should take it because again fundamentals and risk sentiment are the drivers of price Traders generally, you know, technicals will go out of the window And generally go out the window anyway when you've got a Lot of volatility and a lot of reasons to buy and sell from a fundamental and this sentiment perspective Nobody cares that there's a supply zone here, right? I don't care that they supply that supply there if they think that tensions are gonna drive prices and evaluation of gold should be up here So, you know, you shouldn't be driven by by by technical analysis technical analysis is really only used To time, you know, your entries and manage your risk What you know, you should be looking at ultimately is deciding on which way to buy or sell based off of fundamentals and risk sentiment and again if you want to join the The webinar and the weekend retreat just email info at trading 180.com with the subject line webinar and You'll be added to the list for the to the free webinar list. So for gold at the moment If you are looking at risk often, you think that risk off is going to prevail It's really just pull backs into, you know, the demand zone, but if you believe that the There is going to be a resolution and the dollar is going to strengthen as well as inflation coming back to the downside Then this is going to be a really nice opportunity to look for potential short trades But you'd have to really kind of watch the headlines And to see what what is going on with risk sentiment. Anyways, with that being said Yeah, that's it for this week. And again, just If you do want to join the webinar email me info at trading 180.com and I'll see you on the webinar on Wednesday. Take care and speak to you soon