 connections. I'm Jay Fidel. This is Think Tech. We're going to talk about the surge of COVID in India with our friend, Dr. Rupamati Khandikar, who wrote a book about it. Hi, Rupamati. And there's the book, Raging COVID-19 Pandemic. And you call it the Wuhan conspiracy. Welcome to the show. Welcome back to the show, Rupamati. Good evening, Jay. And again, a pleasure. And it's been almost two years that we are having the series on the pandemic. Yeah. Well, you know, we think that, you know, it's a national issue. I guess the news is always seems to be national, what the government is doing and how the cases are surging in this area or not. And we get these maps showing what state has what and what state doesn't have what. And we hear the stories, we hear the stories in the news, and we hear the stories from our friends, you know, and then never a day goes by when a friend of mine doesn't come down with COVID. And it seems to be increasing here in Hawaii and elsewhere on the mainland. But we don't think of the global picture. And that's why we want to talk to you. We don't think of how it's surging in other places and not only within national boundaries, but, you know, outside of national boundaries. And India was in the news a couple days ago about how it was surging in India. And I recall a year, a year and a half ago, India had a terrible surge. And people were dying all over the place. And nobody could seem to do anything about it. We know one person who's connected with think tech was in the city in northeast in India, where, you know, his whole family died. Very nasty. His whole family all kinds of people all around him died. And he had it too, but he survived because he was young and strong. But, you know, the bottom line is that India takes a huge toll on this sort of thing. And when we read that there's a surge in India, we have to be concerned that what happened before will happen again. So can you talk about what's happening in India right now? Right, Jay. Now, when the WHO, the World Health Organization says that it's not over, it's like reminding the people all over the world that do not take it easy. And there's a sense of leniency that has come into the minds of the people when they think that maybe it's okay now maybe in my mind COVID is over and I think let's go. Now, in the previous program, when we discussed, we were talking of the stealth variant that had come in. But and like you said, it's a mild form of the theory that you put forth that maybe a mild variant will take over and the world will be able to adjust or cope with it. That is exactly the situation that is happening right now. We are having the Omicron variants all over the world. What you know, the havoc and chaos that we saw in the beginning of FEB last year was because of the Delta variant. Now the Delta variant was the one which was stagnating and suffocating you and asking you, keeping you gasping for breath, for oxygen, for keeping you on ventilator. Now the variant that is on is the Omicron variant. It's a milder form. So it's kind of the lull before the storm or the decline or you take your pick, you know, it's that kind of situation. But we have to remember two things Jay that the entire world is not vaccinated. And second, the vaccines are not 100% effective. So these two things are keeping the entire situation in a state of we don't know what's going to happen next. Now if at all if the variant changes to being something of a more dangerous one or which requires more hospitalizations, we are going to be in for trouble because right now the people are not in a mood to be brought down again into lockdowns. They want their freedoms, they are calling it the freedoms, but mask is still necessary. Just that this kind of calmness right now is only because of the milder Omicron variants. Even in India we have the B, A4, B, or 5, which is going on. But those are not requiring hospitalizations. And death figures have been single digit in states as big as Texas. But just a couple of days ago they went into two digits. That is 45 was recorded a couple of days back. But otherwise all the states are doing fine. What do you think of what's happening with the lockdowns in China? I'm sure you've seen Xi Jinping is being very proponent about it. He's locking whole cities of tens of millions of people even when there's only a handful of cases. Is he overdoing it? Should other countries do the same? China has a zero COVID policy like we know. They do not want a single COVID case in there. That's why these jaconian laws. And I think that kind of control in this kind of a pandemic is kind of a little bit necessary because right now we do not have that much of testing on the scale that was happening at the beginning of the pandemic in India, in America, in Europe. People are not testing. You have self testing kits, which I don't think are that reliable. People are trying to find ways to avoid this testing. Some countries have lifted their travel restrictions of COVID testing. So you see if you don't test, you don't know how many cases there. China is testing. So they're knowing how many cases there. They're getting scared of the number of tests. If we test and we find out a billion Omicron cases in India, I think it will go into a panic mode. So Omicron is being treated as a cold cough flu. And that's exactly the kind of scenario, the laxity that is happening in the system, that they are just lenient in their approach. And I don't know till when this is going to be possible because it's a mutant virus. Like we said in the beginning, if this virus was natural, by this time we had to be out of danger. But it's a mutant virus and it can change form. And it's a very intelligent virus, the kind of immunity that immunity provided by the vaccines, it tries to overcome that. So that is the scary part. Well, you know, viruses mutate always. And the more people who are infected, the more likely statistically, in fact, biochemically, the more likely there'll be more mutations, the more virus, the more mutations. And we have seen it. I mean, I can't even count the number of variants that we've seen over the past two and a half years, it just constantly mutates. And each time it's a crapshoot as to whether the new variant is going to be more deadly than the old one. So as you say, we could have a deadly variant tomorrow. And it could sweep the world day after. And it's amazing how fast the BA4, BA5 have become the dominant viruses in the United States and possibly in the world. So, you know, it seems to me that we're not out of this and we may never get out of this until we find a vaccine that is smart enough to catch, you know, all the variants, even variants that haven't happened yet. Is this possible, you think? Now, CJ, we are on the third booster dose, a fourth booster dose. And how many booster doses can the body take? So when the booster dose goes unused in the body, it will take, the body will react in a different way. Maybe a diabetic person will react in a different way, a person with a heart ailment will react in a different way to the booster dose that is coming in and staying unused. So, you know, this kind of risk that the mRNA vaccines, which some people do not it's not effective for them. So you don't have such a vaccine, comprehensive vaccine, which will cover all these variants. Because the variants are such that each individual, what do you say? Mutation is overriding the vaccination. What is that? Scope. So we have to understand that it will need time for the body to develop this herd immunity which had come in the beginning, which was advocated by Boris Johnson of UK. I think it did not play a good part in the COVID thing because we had mutations coming in from the lower vaccinated areas of the world. It had a global spread. So something which was happening in South Africa was affecting somebody in UK. So that's why this was a pandemic. And let's be honest, the world will not shut down for a flu. It is a virus which kills. It is a virus which has the potential to kill by its next mutation. So we have to be still on, still careful, still alert. I mean, nobody's paying attention right now. They have lost the concentration. Well, I mean, on that is so much to talk about here with you. You know, it seems to me that the United States is at least substantially responsible for the politicization and the divisiveness on whether and to what extent people could take the vaccines and wear masks. Well, that's very destructive. And the reasons they didn't want to take vaccines, the reason they didn't want to use masks was irrational, unscientific, and politicized. And as a result, correct me if I'm wrong, as a result, and we led the way in allowing people to travel internationally, you know, to take the God rails off. And including Joe Biden did that. And I'm saying, gee, that was in retrospect, that wasn't a good idea because, you know, had we been careful about it, we could have limited to spread early on. But Trump was not careful. He didn't understand anything about it. He didn't understand the meaning of the word careful. And so then we have now we have we have let it become politicized, and we have let it become international. And even now, when you live in New York, I was in New York, not not not long ago, and I can tell you that maybe, maybe one third of the people you see, maybe less are wearing masks, even indoors, they if they don't have to a lot of them don't the same. I was in New England, and I saw the same thing in New England. In Hawaii, I suppose it's not it's a little better, but not much. And so you know what we have is a national culture of not being concerned. And if it's not going to kill me, I won't wear a mask, but they don't realize that if you get it, and a lot of people get it, then you have more mutations. And then you have the risk of a much more deadly disease, and it keeps on going and going and going. You know, I keep thinking, for example, to compare this with the Spanish flu epidemic, not dissimilar between 1918 and 1919. It started in the US in the war. It went to Europe. And it came back worse, it came back as a mutation that was stronger. And they called the Spanish flu because it came back from Spain. But in fact, it was originally designed originally happened in the US. My point though, is if you make it international, and you don't do anything about it, then it becomes then everywhere is at risk, because the more cases, the more mutations. So I guess, what do you think of the American approach to this over the past two and a half years? Now, in here, two-thirds of the population is vaccinated in the US. And we are looking forward to the fall. Now you know, JV, look forward to the fall with the flu dose, flu shot. So now you're going to have the flu and the COVID having joining. And maybe we have a mutation, or maybe we have we have reactions, which are some people may not be able to take the booster. And the US has now initiated a program to have the booster shots taken by everybody. But you see, at the end of the day, it's about your personal hygiene and your personal mask, which people have brought it down to liberty, freedom and all these, you know, high level political tenants. But it's not about that. It's just about protecting yourself and protecting others. Because like you said, every country has a variant name after it. We have so many of them coming in now. I think even people are confused as to what to take in and what not to take in. And the virus is going to keep on getting stronger till it has breeding grounds for mutations and unvaccinated people, unmasked people, people with ailments are all grounds for these unique mutations, which may or may not trouble the world. So we are in such uncertain territory right now. And China, till what time they are going to have this isolation policy and zero COVID policy, and we're having two different parts of the spectrum. China has no zero COVID policy. US is having full freedom. So across the Pacific, you can see two different scenarios. And the result is the same COVID is still not stopping. So we have to just see that it all comes down to your personal choice. And your mask is only protection right now. Vaccination booster doses are coming in. The US is procuring it from India, from the Serum Institute. But effectiveness is the key J. We had discussed effectiveness too, in one of our programs that no matter how many booster doses you take, is it effective enough if two booster doses were not effective? When a child has a vaccine, it lasts them a lifetime. We are having two vaccines two years. So every year, I think everybody takes it. It's not effective. I think a lot of people I know, you know, we're very careful about it. And they took the first vaccine as soon as they could. They took the first booster as soon as they could. And it was available here. And the second booster as soon as they could, which was only a few months ago, really, in late 2021. But you know, what I'm getting is that even with all of that, the virus is ahead of us. And even with poor shots like that, you're really not protected anymore. Is it true? Yes, it is absolutely a point on because this virus is far more intelligent than anybody else can because it's a species jumping virus. So it can go to another species. It cannot be eliminated. You know, if you try to clean your house, there is going to be a speck of dust. And this is like, you're cleaning the whole world. It's not possible, isn't it J. So it's going to be we are in for a very prolonged battle. And it has to be have a lot of patience. And you have to have understanding that COVID doesn't go away. COVID doesn't go away. It's going to have other friends coming along with the monkey pox coming in. And the other, it's a very grim situation. Because once we understand that any pandemic cannot be controlled with this kind of a billion population, and, you know, you have to have a lot of precaution which people are not ready to take, people are thinking that it's restrictive. It's this, but I don't think so. Governments can have a further hand in this other than providing booster doses, other than providing guidelines to people. People following it or not following is the problem, Jay. Yeah, well, what about this new vaccine that was just announced that is supposed to come out in September, I think it's not, it hasn't been approved by the CDC just yet or the FDA. But it's supposed to be available in this country. And there's a real question medically as to whether if you've had this is not Pfizer and something else. In fact, I have a recollection that some of it is being produced in India right now. So the question is, if I've had my four shots, which most people I know have had, at least here, is it okay to switch horses? Is it okay to go to a brand new one on the assumption that my old ones are no longer effective? So I need to start a new regimen with a new one. And if this is a smarter vaccine, then I should go to, what do you think? Now these are the DNA modifying vaccines, mRNA, which is being procured by the U.S. from India. They don't want the DNA modifying vaccine. They want this one. So now what has happened, Jay? It's a truck in the vaccine quality, everything. But you see, it is developed, any vaccine to develop takes 15, 15 years to go into mass production, Jay. That is a scientific fact. 15 years to go to mass production. And we are having different, different doses being brought in every year. Annually, we are having doses bought in. And the entire process of all these vaccines has taken only two years. To find a vaccine, it takes minimum of three years and mass production requires for 15 years. Now when you hear that the U.S. is procured 2.3 million doses, India has sent 6 million doses to South Africa. You know, you find that this kind of mass production is not effective because these vaccines have not been tested. Vaccines need testing. They need results. They need research. They need modifications. And then you go into mass production. Now here is something that if it works in one person, if it works in a few people, they are thinking that it can work in a country. That is not possible, Jay. That is, you know, you can take the booster shots with a little bit of precaution. Because right now if you see only 1% of the population which has taken the previous doses are going into the booster dose. What do I do right now? I'm Joe Q. Citizen. And I am concerned because so many of my friends are coming down with this. And if they happen to be compromised, it's pretty risky. Even if the mutation is not necessarily lethal, it's certainly going to affect their health, maybe a long haul case and so forth. And it's with us. It's not going away, as you and I have discussed. So the question is, what do I do in today's world? What are you doing in today's world? What are your friends and associates doing? We will take the vaccination with a bit of precaution. Just let, you know, see how you react to the booster doses. Take the tried and tested ones rather than the new ones. That would be because you have the old ones in your body system and you take a new one. We don't know where that is going to go. Take your flu shot properly. And basically do not trivialize colds and your symptoms. When you trivialize symptoms, you're giving space to the virus to mutate or develop. Small, small symptom, take care of it. You know, you have to take care of yourself. It's like teaching you to be a bit of, a bit of, it's bringing in a bit of selfishness in you to take care of yourself rather than letting go of things and taking it on your body. So that's the way to go for it. Booster doses, take it a bit of precaution because every year a booster dose makes your body react in some way or another. So you say not to trivialize the symptoms. And I suppose a lot of people would say, okay, I think I have a cold now. It might be, it might be COVID, but it might be a cold. But I'll do that. I'll address the symptoms, which means I go down to the drugstore and I buy what? Cold, symptomatic type cold medicine to take care of a cough or a sore throat, what have you. I rinse, I gargle, I do all those things that I would do for a cold. Is that what you're saying? Yeah, yeah, correct. You take your regular precautions, you take your health remedy measures, which have been prescribed by your grandmother, your mom, your natural medicines and everything. But trivializing it, not test for your COVID, you know, the Omicron mutation, like you said, is a mild one. It is not causing death. So this kind of relaxation is there. Delta was causing death. So we were in a panic mode. Now we don't know which is the next one coming in, you know, they've gotten out of names also, they're like, let it be, let's have a BA, BA2, BA9. It's coming. They're not even bothering to find a good name for it. So it's that kind of leniency that has stepped in. And it's a pandemic, pandemic is not over in two years. That takes me to my last area of inquiry with you, and that is no, it's a pandemic. We knew that early on. And this country failed in so many ways. I have to say, whatever your politics, this country failed, it failed on Trump and it failed in the CDC officials in Biden as well. You know, for example, you know, so you don't have to wear a mask anymore. That was bad advice. I remember that I said, why, why are they saying that? You know, that it's clear that we weren't out of the woods. And there they were telling us to relax, bad advice. Anyway, here we are, we know it's global. We know it mutates. We know that some countries have more and some countries have less. And I would like to make you queen for a day, Ruth Monning. Some people say that you're queen every day. But today, today, I want to make you queen. And you have the power, okay, and to speak to multiple countries. You are the top of the line United Nations official with lots of power. What do you do here in order to save, you know, this is not an international global order. Because we have other threats to global order, as you know, you know, in climate change and Ukraine and in the, you know, arising of autocrats, Hither and Jan. But on this one, what do you do to give us the best chance of surviving it and minimize the loss of life, the loss of economic productivity? What do you do? CJ, such a wonderful feeling. But it's the fact that you have to follow your basic COVID guidelines, keep your social distancing on, do not shake hands, do not keep a mask on. You have to have these vaccinations of shots which are effective. We have to, with a touch of precaution, take it. If you've had your shots, wait. Okay, but as queen, as queen. Okay. What would you do to make sure this happened? I mean, would you take the steps? I remember there was this wonderful photograph of a woman in the 1918-1999 Spanish flu. And she had us just holding a sign and the sign said, wear a mask or go to jail. It was real simple. Really? I mean, we are in such a terrible situation that basic, basic mask and social distancing is being linked to freedom. I mean, where are you going with these norms? Where are you going with this kind of rebellion? It's going to affect person to person. It's so simple. But the children of today are growing up with the understanding that they have to bring in social distancing, sanitizing hands. All these are being inculcated as the way of growing up. So that's a good thing in that they will be more prepared. Okay, what about government? What about international? As time goes by, we realize that this is a matter for every country. And the countries have to cooperate. They have to reach an agreement on how to respond. And as and when they do, don't you think that ultimately somebody is going to have to stay to the world? You've got to wear a mask. You've got to take the vaccine. You've got to maintain social distancing. And if you don't do that, we are going to apply sanctions against you and make you sad. And the question is, do you think that's inevitable? Because this is going to continue until we take some sort of global action, multinational action. Isn't it so? Jay, in a utopian world, 100% of the world population would have been vaccinated in the first shot and you would not have any mutations. Correct. But when we had pockets of unvaccinated areas all over the world, they were breeding grounds for these Omicron, for the beta delta, everything coming in. So we have 100% pan vaccination that is still not possible, isn't it? We are finding that governments are as lenient as the citizens. And we think that it's okay to, we had the Brazilian president flaunting that he doesn't want, he was down with COVID still. He said, no, no, no, I don't want to wear a mask. I don't want to get vaccinated. So you have defiance on that kind of a level, the common people. So this, I told you in an idealistic world, we have no mutations. But when you have each person being potential ground for next mutation, and that is the problem with this virus, that it spreads. And right now, the result of this virus is not death. So we are enjoying ourselves. If it brings in something that is more deadly, the symptoms and the result of this mutation is deadly, we are going to have again a panic mode that sets in. Inevitably, Jay, that is going to happen. That is the rule of mutations. That is the rule of the virus. Because unless it is curbed, or unless it dies down, or unless it is in control, it will mutate and it will spread. Part of mutation is the spread feature, isn't it? Spread feature, yes. And whether it's lethal or not lethal, it can mutate, so it's more infectious. And so you see countries, for example, that do wear masks, like Japan, they have a surge. Because somehow masks or no masks, the thing is more infectious, and comes and goes. So you have a combination of features working all to perpetuate the virus. And I think, as you say, that is going to continue with us for a long time. I suppose in the end, what you said before really counts. I remember, for example, when the CDC, and its infinite lack of wisdom, said, you don't have to worry about yourself, was it, or the other way around. Oh, yeah, you should wear a mask because you don't want to infect anyone else. But it doesn't help you protect yourself, which is, that's poppycock. And in fact, it works both ways. If it's stopping the viral particles from passing out of your mouth, it stops them from passing into your mouth, it's a two-way infection. And is this remarkable? They said, no, don't worry about yourself, worry about, don't worry about others, worry about yourself or something. I forget how that worked. But the fact is that we all have to wear the mask all the time. And I think, as you say, this great generation will grow up with that. And we are not going to be free of this for a long time. And so the answer, the answer is nice if we can stop it globally, but that's not likely. There will be pockets of people that aren't vaccinated and that where it flares up, and they will in turn affect other pockets of people elsewhere, and it will flare up, and it will keep on flaring. I suppose one way is to stop all international travel, but that's not really happening now. So many people I know are traveling internationally and taking that risk. So at the end of the day, you have to watch out for yourself. It's a terrible thing. It's self-interest, isn't it? Self-interest first. I don't want to catch the thing. So I think that's the advice here. Don't worry about infecting others, worry about getting infected, no? Correct. And being revelation in this pandemic was like a common sense thing. Nobody wanted to think. Everybody was just, what do you say? They were thinking that they are being cornered. It was such a depressing situation that they bought in. Why they can't just make it a regular part of your life? Now, the surges that you're talking of is because work from home has finished and people are going out in the offices. So that kind of surge will come in. But to see and to believe that this is going to be over is a false notion. It's not, we have to live with it, Jay. If you decide that it's something like the flu and like you're putting on your mufflers and your gloves before you're going out in cold weather, let's do that and have a mask and make it part of your routine. Nothing will happen. But if you make it burdening to put a mask and everything, it's going to continue. It's really going to continue. We have to check back with you and see if this plays out that way. And I hope you're going to write another book to update. Let me see the cover of your book. I want to see that one more time. There is Raging COVID-19. That's a couple of years ago you wrote that book. I'd like to see the sequel or at least talk about it with you, Group Muddy. So let's plan on getting together and following up on this as time goes by because no matter what happens politically, even the climate change, no matter what happens in Ukraine, this is with us and we better pay attention to it. Correct, correct. Now Ukraine is affecting us because if the wheat doesn't reach us, our prices are going to rise. So you have this effect. Anything happens in the world, it's your house. The world is your house. It's going to affect you. So wheat prices are going to affect us. In the same way, some mutation that happens in another continent is going to affect us. Whether we take four booster doses, whether we take seven booster doses, we have to understand that we live together as a family. And so bringing everybody under protection is a priority for each and every citizen as it is for each and every government. So we have to work together. Let's fight together. Group Muddy Kandukar, I so enjoy talking with you. We'll see you again soon. Aloha. Thank you so much for watching Think Tech Hawaii. If you like what we do, please like us and click the subscribe button on YouTube and the follow button on Vimeo. You can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and LinkedIn, and donate to us at thinktechawaii.com. Mahalo.