 Good morning, everyone. Is everybody okay this morning? Did you get your coffee? Okay, great. That's important. We need to be awake. We need to be awake this morning and I want to really welcome you to the 2014 corn and wheat short course. My name is Brenda Ortiz and because of my southern accent, it's farthest out from you. And I have been trying to learn from you the accent. I haven't picked up the y'all yet, but I'm trying. I am an associate professor in the Department of Club, Soil and Environmental Sciences Auburn University. I have 75% extension appointment, 25% research appointment, and I work in three areas. So, like my colleague from Purdue, Tony Vine, I said that I have three hats. You know, one day I'm wearing the corn and wheat extension agronomy hat. The other day I wear the precision agriculture hat and the next day I wear the climate extension hat. And I try to combine all of these things in order to really help you. So, I am glad you are here. I'm glad you take the time to spend two days here with us and with our visitors, professors and scientists from different universities and different institutions that I want to perhaps go ahead and recognize them. Here, we have, I feel like, a very good pool of speakers. But I also want to recognize not only the speakers, but also the sponsors that made possible that you are here with us. And I also want to thank the team, the team that has been working on preparing this course for you. It's a team effort. My colleagues from Extension, Extension Agents, County Extension Coordinators, Extension Administration, Extension Communication, my Extension Specialist colleagues, and my colleagues from the Crop Soil and Environmental Sciences Department. With that, I really want to encourage you to ask questions, to take advantage of these people that are going to be with us for the next two days. Take advantage of the breaks that we will have at Ballroom B, where our sponsors are going to be there also. So, meet with our sponsors, meet with the speakers, and ask, you know, as many questions as you can. And I want to invite one of my, I can say it's one of my colleagues. Dr. Paul Maske now has a new role. He is now the Associate Dean for Extension in the College of Agriculture of Auburn University. And I want him to give us the official welcome for this event. Thank you, Brenda. It's great to see all of you here. Brenda has put together a fantastic agenda. I was reading over it early and earlier. As the former grain specialist, she really outdid anything I ever did. I was a little bit jealous, but this doesn't happen without a couple of things. And the first she mentioned the speakers, I really would like to thank all of the speakers that have agreed to be here to make this short course what it will be, but also the sponsors. Extension has a long history of partnership with industry to bring information out. This year, we're celebrating the 100th year of Extension. And we here in Alabama especially have reason to celebrate because some of the earliest extension work was done here in Alabama by George Washington Carver. And if you get a chance, there's a small museum in Tuskegee and it's one of the best small museums I know of. And as an agronomist, there's no greater name than George Washington Carver. And so I'm very appreciative of the fact that we have close by here a really good museum that celebrates his work. He started Extension, he developed a concept, he bought a wagon and equipped it and he would take loads of seeds and implements and other things out to the producers and the farmers and put in demonstrations and that sort of thing. And his work was part of what brought about the creation of Extension. And so throughout the country and Washington DC and most other states, there have been celebrations this year of the 100th birthday of Extension. But I think the best celebration of all are the kind that we're having here today because Extension has always been about bringing the latest information to the producers and that's what we're doing here today. So I welcome you here to this short course and really appreciate your attendance and appreciate the efforts of the speakers and Brenda and the sponsors. Thank you. So I would like to invite our first speaker of this morning, Mr. Mark Gold and he's coming from the company Top Third. He will be speaking about rain, marketing strategies. Well good morning everyone. First of all I'd like to wish everybody a very merry Christmas and happy holidays. My name is Mark Gold, I come to you today from Chicago. City kid born and raised, went off to University of Illinois and got a degree in agricultural economics. When I graduated I bought a seat at the Chicago Board of Trade. Spent the next 20, 22 years in the pits as a professional trader. Left the floor in 1995, got involved working with farmers and I've been working with farmers ever since trying to help them do a better job of marketing. How many of you are here this morning because you feel you can do a better job of marketing your crops or livestock? Just about everybody, right? How many of you out there right now are using futures or options to help you with your marketing? Just a few of you, one's my client. How many of you out there know what a margin call is? About everybody, right? And it's okay to answer this next question. How many of you think all the members of the Board of Trade and the Merck are a bunch of thieves and crooks? Well they aren't thieves and crooks, they're professional businessmen. They are the best in the world at what they do. Today we have to watch these markets virtually 18 hours a day, five days a week, and your odds of running in and looking at your DTN machine once or twice a day to determine whether or not prices are going up or down or not and try to beat those pros in Chicago, it's probably not going to happen. So we want to get you thinking a little bit differently about marketing than you have before. First of all, where are we right now in these world stocks? The U.S. numbers have come down a little bit. Soybeans on this last report were down to 410. Corn just under 2 billion bushels, wheat at 654. I wouldn't be as concerned looking at market prices with these U.S. stocks. It's the world ending stocks that concern me. 2013 we had 173, this year we've got 192 in the corn. The wheat went from 185 to 195. Beans went from 67 to almost 90 million metric tons of beans. It's not like we're running out of grain out here folks. Now, production versus marketing. American farmers are the best producers in the world. You guys are going to spend most of this conference learning how to grow bigger and better crops. Growing, it's not the problem. Historically, where do the statistics tell us that the average American farmer sells the majority of his crops every year? In the bottom third of prices that were available to him during the year. So hopefully some of the things that we can talk about here today can help you do a better job of marketing. Some of these marketing opportunities are going to come well before you even plant the crops. And you've got to look at these opportunities long before these crops get in the bin. And I know for many of you, your granddad told your dad and your dad told you, don't sell it till you get it in the bin. And for 150 years that was great advice. But now with the new insurance policies we have out there, the revenue insurance, we can feel much more comfortable selling grain ahead of time than we ever had before. Now in 2015, you face extraordinary risk out there. The high land prices, the input costs are high, water, seed, land, all of that. You have basis risk, not so much here in the deep south, but certainly in the Midwest, we have to watch that. And you can't afford to pay these high input costs and then sell your crops at cheap prices. Managing your risk by becoming better marketers is going to be critical to you maintaining your profit margins. Now the current grain fundamentals, the bullish side, we've got good soybean demand, particularly from the Chinese. We have possible reduced acres, it looks like the FSA numbers were leaked on Friday. They shaved corn about a million six, they shaved beans about a million three acres. So that's a little bit friendly. Now as of half an hour ago, beans were a little bit lower on the day. Corn was about steady. There's certainly some quality issues about the corn that's left out there in the fields in the upper north. So all that are the basic bullish fundamentals. Bearish fundamentals, the export demand for corn and wheat has been really very poor this year. We have the strong US dollar which is certainly limiting the export market and we have these big world carryouts to contend with. Now how can you become a better marketer? First of all, you have to spend more time on your marketing plan. How many of you folks in this room right now will spend an hour a week being better marketers? Again, my client, one and one of the gentlemen of that. Well folks, if you want to become a better marketer, you have to spend some time on it. It's not that easy. You're going to have to make some changes. I want you to spend five minutes a day to become a better marketer. Can you handle five minutes a day? If you truly want to become a better marketer, can you handle five minutes a day? I believe you can. Now I'm asking you to make a little bit of a change in your life, right? Spend five minutes a day doing something you haven't had to do before. I'll tell you something personal about me. I've had to make a few changes in my life. I'll tell you something personal about me. You're looking at a man back in 2001 at four separate open heart surgeries. They cracked me open four times within one year. And I can tell you unequivocally the only way a man survives four open heart surgeries is through the infinite mercy of Jesus Christ. Now growing up Jewish in Chicago and getting baptized late in life and accepting Jesus Christ as my Lord and Savior was a bit of a change in my life. I'm not asking you guys to make that big of a change. For example, I'm not going to ask you to convert to Judaism. Trust me, the initiation for the guys is pretty tough so we won't have you do that. But I want you to spend five minutes a day. We put out an email every night to our clients. You guys will have an opportunity to read that. We'll let you sign up for it at the table when we're done here at the break. Take five minutes. Read that email. Track your basis. Start reading some things about marketing. Get more involved in it. But you have to spend five minutes a day to become a better marketer. Combine effective crop insurance with your marketing plan. And now we've got the Farm Bill, the ARC and the PLC out there to deal with. We like our clients to have crop insurance and generally the revenue insurance because we like our clients to have guaranteed bushels that they can sell ahead of time. In the 2014 crop, when was the best time to sell your crop? Back in March, April, May of last year, of the year. Long before you harvested these crops. So we want you to look for those opportunities and when you have crop insurance and guaranteed bushels we can feel more comfortable selling grain ahead of time. We want to use options to manage risk. And we're going to talk very simply today about options and what they are and what they can do for you. Has everybody heard the term puts and calls? What's a put and what's a call? I want you to think about a put option just this simply. It's an insurance policy that you can buy today to protect the price of your crops or livestock until you sell it in case the price goes down. It's an insurance policy. So today we have December 15 corn out here at about 420 bushels. If you can buy a $4 put for 25 cents and net put in a 375 floor on your corn if corn goes to 3 bucks this year or 250 this year you're protected at $4. If corn goes to $5 or $6 like we would like it to you're going to lose the 25 cents you paid for that insurance policy but you have the corn to sell up here at $5 or $6 of bushel. Everybody understand that? It's an insurance policy to protect your unsold bushels. We buy put options to protect anything that's unsold. So if you've got grain in the bin from $14 that you haven't sold we need some puts on that. If you're planning on raising grain in 2015 we need some puts on that grain that you're going to raise in 2015 and we need it right now. So the put option is your insurance policy in case prices go down. What's a call option? I want you to think about a call option just this simply. It's a lottery ticket. Now I don't know if any of you guys or gals in this crowd have bought a lottery ticket but we have the Powerball in Illinois and I've spent a buck or two bucks trying to win $300 million or $400 million. Did I expect to win $300 or $400 million? No I did. But I was in the game. So once you've sold this crop let's say you saved me some corn out here at $4.20 and I got a pretty good basis why don't I just sell it now because if I don't if I buy your put I'm potentially leaving about $0.45 on the table. Okay you want to pull the trigger and go sell some corn right now go ahead and do it. Now that you've sold the grain we'll look at buying the call option to replace it. If we've got December corn here at $4.20 maybe we buy a $4.50 call option for $0.20. So corn does go to $5.50 or $7.00 this year. We have that lottery ticket in our pocket in case there's higher prices. So those are the basics on the options the put option is your insurance policy in case the price goes down. Once you've sold the grain we look at buying the call option as your lottery ticket in case there's a jackpot out there. Now what are the three greatest advantages when you buy an option? Let's say for example you plan to raise $50,000 so let's say it's $0.20 a bushel to buy the put option. Each contract at the board of trade is for $5,000 bushel. So if you're raising $50,000 bushel you'd need 10 contracts of these put options. $0.20 a bushel is $1,000 a contract times 10 contracts you'd need to write out a check for $10,000 plus my commission. I charge $37.50 for each contract you buy or sell in this case you're buying 10 contracts my commission would be $375. You'd need to write that check for $10,375. Now you're protected if corn goes to $3.50 or $2.50 this year. Now you've just written out that check. There are three great advantages when you buy these options. The number one advantage with any option you buy is that you will never ever get a margin call period. All of you folks knew what a margin call was so when you spend that money you won't ever get a margin call if you buy the option. The second great advantage with the option is you have the upside open to you. A lot of you guys are scared to sell grain because you're worried about gee if I sell my corn of $4.20 what if it goes to $6 this year you feel like you're missing something out there. So you sell the corn if you buy the call option you still have the upside open to you. If you don't sell the grain on if the market goes up you're going to have $5 or $6 corn open to you. So in either case you play this game you have the upside open to you in the market. The third great advantage of buying the option is the time value. If we go out and buy that December 15 put today that gives us almost one year of protection between now and next December. So if we have another $175 bushel yield or even higher I mean let's face it Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan all got their yields kicked down because of bad weather. What if they would have had good weather like the rest of the Midwest can we have 180 185 bushel corn in this country you bet we can. So would it make for you young lady would it make your life easier if you knew that every day between now and next December $3 or $2.50 you're protected here at $4 but if corn goes to $5 or $7 this year you still have the corn to sell up there does that make your life easier or harder over the next year? It takes a lot of the stress out of this game making one trade one trade. So those are the three great advantages when you buy the option. Okay Mark you told me the good news about options the number one problem with any option you buy and you've all heard it is that 85% of all options you buy will expire worthless. So why would I have you spend $10,000 on something that's going to expire worthless 85% of the time. Well when we buy this put option what do we want to have happen to the value of the put we want it to go worthless we want corn to go higher we want to watch that thing go worthless because then it needs we've got higher corn prices out there but what they don't tell you all my competitors always moan about options expiring worthless. 85% of options expire worthless but they never tell you what percent of options had good money in them at some point and you didn't take the money out before it goes worthless so for example this year someone went to 318 if we had a $4 put on if we didn't take some money out when it got down to 330 or 320 and that option could have been worth 70 cents on that October rally we would have lost all that money and that option could have expired worthless so the fact of the matter is our job at top third is to help you manage that option as an asset and our job is to pick you up with some money in this option now it's time to take some money out of it and what we call rolling down and rolling up if we talk about some things here that you don't understand we have a book at the table and Liesl is with me Liesl if you'll stand up real quick she's going to be here all day in the at the table I've got to go back to Chicago she's a heck of a lot prettier to look at at me so stop by and say hello to Liesl she'll get you the book I'm not going to buy her any more the second problem with the option is you got to pay for it you got to write out that check for 10,375 bucks and you might say to me you know what Mark I just don't have the cash right now I've got my John Deere bill coming up or I've got a seed bill I got to pay I just don't have the cash right now that's when you have to have an ag lender who understands this and is willing to lend you the money I'm not going to lend you money on something that expires worthwhile 85% of the time you need a new banker and you call me up and I guarantee you I can find you a banker within 25 miles of wherever you live in Alabama or any other ag state in this country and find you an ag lender who understands this I work with hundreds and hundreds of ag lenders all over the United States who do understand this but the fact of the matter is it's perfect. If you buy that December $4 put for 25 cents well from 4.20 where the market is today down to 3.75 don't expect that value of the put option to increase all that much it'll slowly as the market comes down the value of that put will slowly increase but once we get under 3.75 then it's going to pick up some steam if we sell the grain at 4.20 and we buy that call and let's say we buy a 4.50 call for 20 cents well from 4.20 up to 4.70 that call option isn't going to pick up much steam but if we start getting over 4.70 it's going to start working very well for you don't expect the options to follow the futures market penny for penny the options aren't perfect and while we're on the subject I'm not perfect either you'll notice the name of my company says top third it doesn't say top 1% or even top 30 it just says top third so if I can get you guys from selling your grain in the bottom third and get you to the top third every year year in and year out no matter what these markets do I believe I've done my job if you said to me you know what Mark that's not good enough if corn goes from 4.20 to 3 bucks this year if I don't get that whole $1.20 you're no good to me well I'm sorry I can't help you then but if I can get you in that top third every year and year in and year out that's what I can do for you now at top third you're probably never going to hit the home run if corn goes to 7 bucks you're probably not going to wind up with $7 corn maybe 6.20 or 6.50 or some other number if you want to swing for the fences call one of my competitors and while you're swinging for the fences trying to hit that home run what are you most likely going to do strike out well at top third you're never going to strike out you're going to hit a lot of singles and doubles and maybe the occasional triple but those are the pluses and minuses of the options now why don't you guys use more options options haven't been around that long when I went to ag school in the 70s we didn't talk about options because we didn't have them they didn't come in until the 80s so I'm 60 years old if you're 50 year older talked about at the dinner table because they didn't have them but for some of you younger guys you should have been exposed to some of this and you should be working with these tools and you older guys need to take some time to understand these options because in my opinion the option is the best tool ever invented for the American farmer to become a better marketer now we've got one more here don't become a speculator I don't want you guys trying to guess this market I don't want you reading the magazines I don't want you to watch guys on television I'll tell you where they think the market's going to go how many of you out there watch me on U.S. Farm Report or Ag Day TV quit watching me out there that's where I tell you what I think and not what I know and let me tell you as soon as you hear any commodity broker say these two words I think hold on to your wallet I think the reports are going to be bullish I think there's going to be a drought this year I think there's going to be plenty of rain rain prices are going to two bucks a bushel as soon as you hear a broker say I think hang up the phone on them as your risk manager I will never tell you what I think I will only tell you what I know I don't have a clue if corn is going to seven bucks this year or if it's going down to 250 I don't have a clue here's what I know we're going to do it for 25 cents we're spending 25 cents to protect a buck and a half of risk that's a six to one risk-a-ward ratio that's a trade we're going to make but you guys all want to try to speculate these markets and beat the pros and out guess it and listen to some broker or read somebody's emails or whatever they put out there the reports and all this nonsense that's out there does anybody here know the odds of the public beating the pros in Chicago is a speculator anybody know the odds anybody want to guess seven percent seven percent of all outside speculators can beat the pros in Chicago those are pretty lousy odds aren't they how many of you are going to raise grain in 2015 and haven't sold a pound of it well what are you doing with all that grain that's in the bin and all that grain that you're going to raise next year you're speculating with it you're hoping that the price goes higher what are the odds that you're right seven percent we don't want you speculating with this grain what is my job as your risk manager my job as your risk manager is to identify the risks you have in growing corn, wheat and beans cattle and hogs, cotton, rice whatever it is and to tell you what that risk is this year and we've identified the risk in 2015 is that corn can go to 240 a bushel so I beans can go to 780 a bushel wheat can go to about 4 bucks a bushel cattle pick a number now I don't have a clue if that's where we're going but that's the risk and I'll show you where I get that risk in a second so my job as your hedge manager is to identify those risks and protect you against that bad thing from happening to you what's my job as your spec broker let's say you call me up Mark you've been trading for almost 40 years now you've had some success over the years can't we throw 20 grand into an account and make some money trading together my answer is absolutely not all you're going to do is lose your money because what is my job as your spec broker and listen carefully to this because I'm the only broker in the United States that will tell you the truth about this what is my job as your spec broker my job as your spec broker is to help you lose your money at a slower rate and use it on your own everybody understand that we don't want you speculating all you're going to do is lose money quit trying to out guess these markets quit reading all the nonsense why I told you to quit watching me on TV because that's where I tell you where I think and I can put that stuff out there and do it as well as any of those guys can but the fact of the matter is if any of us marketing gurus knew where the market was going we wouldn't be telling you he'd be long retired I know some of the best traders in Chicago my closest friend been like a father to me he's going to be 88 in two weeks he's been a member of the board of trade over 55 years one of the most successful traders that ever lived is he writing newsletters is he telling anybody what he's doing in the market no he wants to trade we have a saying in Chicago right great newsletters great traders trade so quit listening to all the nonsense that's out there identify the risks and manage that risk that's in front of you now crop insurance quickly many of you found out that if you had crop insurance from 14 you didn't get much of a check if any check because what's important to understand about the revenue insurance if you grow the bushels and you're at above your rate let's say your APH is 160 and you came in at 169 this year you didn't get a check you've always been told that if the prices go down you're protected it's nonsense yes you get more bushels but you get them at a lower price so you have to identify what the crop insurance can do for you we don't sell crop insurance at top third so whatever you do there is your business keep in mind the insurance will protect the bushels you don't grow if it's hailed out, drowned out, droughted out, whatever it is a marketing plan will protect your live bushels now the hardest concept to grasp in buying options is that when you buy that $10,000 worth of options you want to lose the money that's the hardest part but I said it's an insurance policy is there a married couple in the room do we have a married couple in the room anybody married in the room no couples we'll pick on you do you have any life insurance do you want to lose the premium every year or do you want your wife to collect on the policy tomorrow you understand that just fine you want to lose the premium I told you that this put option is an insurance policy the hard part is you want to lose the premium everybody here excuse me has car insurance you want to get into an accident on the way home so you can collect on the policy or do you want to lose the premium you want to lose the premium the hardest part about what I do is when you hand me that check for $10,500 and I tell you and I don't forget you want to lose every penny of this when you say yeah Mark I get it I'm protected between now and next December if corn prices go down I'm protected but if corn prices go up I'm going to make a lot more money then I can help you with that policy what are the two factors that determine whether or not the expense of the option justifies the risk we have to have at least a three to one risk reward ratio before we'll buy any option we just told you that if we buy the December put the $4 put for 25 cents protecting at least a buck and a half of risk that's a six to one risk reward ratio that's a trade we're certainly willing to make but the number one factor to determine whether an option has worth are where prices historically are we in the lower third the middle third of the upper third of historical prices if we're in the upper third of historical prices wouldn't that be a good time either to sell grain or to buy a put option and expect that it's got a good chance of paying off in case we go back to that bottom third you bet if you're selling grain here in the lower third of historical prices wouldn't that be a good time to sell off in case we go back up sure now here's 30 years of corn I don't have a clue right now we've got December corn out here this is a monthly chart so this is based off the March contract but December is up here at about 420 bushel I don't have a clue if we're going to 5 bucks, 6 bucks or 8 bucks this year or 10 bucks I don't have a clue what's the risk certainly down here now here's December corn again we're in this area here we're going to get we've already made some cash sales for 2015 if we get up in this range in here we're going to certainly get more aggressive because we're not running out of grain anywhere around the world and with the dollar as strong as it is we want to look for opportunities to price it in the meantime we've got those $4 puts here for 25 cents in case we go to 250 now let's hope and pray for a rally but while we're hoping and praying for a rally we've got that put option in our back pocket in case we go down here's soybeans I don't have a clue if beans are going back up to 9 or 11 or 13 or 15 bucks or they're coming down here to really wait what do you got here no I'm sorry this is wheat this is wheat I don't have a clue if wheat's going back to 9 or 12 or 13 bucks so if we can buy today a $6 July put for 30 cents 35 cents we'll spend that 35 cents to protect $2 of risk that's a 5 to 6 to 1 risk-award ratio we hope when we buy that $6 July put that the market goes up when we lose that 30 or 35 cents for that put option but if wheat does go to 4 bucks we're protected here's the July wheat again we're over 6 bucks a bushel I don't know if we're going to 7 or 8 or if we're coming down to 4 we've just been to 5 not long ago can we go over to 4 you bet so if we can buy that $6 put today for 30 cents and put in a 570 floor in on our wheat we're protected in case we go back to 5 let alone 4 but if wheat goes to right up in this $675 range we're going to be much more aggressive selling the cash once we sell the cash then we can sell off those puts we no longer need and then maybe if we close over 7 bucks maybe we'll buy a call option in case we go back to 10 or 13 bucks a bushel there's soybeans 30 years of soybeans I don't have a clue we're out here at about 10.30 I don't have a clue God forbid it's 5 now you guys go stick another 4 million acres of beans in the ground next year and if we have good yields in Iowa next year in Michigan and Wisconsin and Minnesota don't tell me that $6 beans are out of the question go ahead stick another 4 million acres in the ground see what happens with good weather but the fact of the matter is we can buy a 10 dot what we call a $10 $8 put spread for 50 cents and protect that $2 for 50 cent risk that's a 4 to 1 risk for war ratio that's a trade we're willing to make let's go back real quick the corn why does this happen why do prices go up and down what is the farmer response around the world the first time when the Russians were buying corn back when the Russians were buying it what was the response in 95 when the Chinese were buying the corn what was the farmer response around the world at 550 corn when we went to $8 corn what was the farmer response around the world to $8 corn plant more corn what's happening to demand at 8 bucks a bushel that's going down so you guys are about to raise more of what the world wants less of go down and how far will it go within 18 months of any high you've gone back under the cost of production and why does that happen because if the prices didn't go back under the cost of production you would have idiots like me from Chicago coming out in Iowa and paying 15 grand an acre for land and thinking this is easy you've got to force out that inefficient producer and how do you do it it has always happened it always will so you've got to learn to take advantage of these rallies out here here's again this is November beans we're out here $10.30ish roughly you buy that $10.00 or $8.00 foot spread in case we go down this is cattle 30 years of cattle anybody got cattle in the room any risk in this cattle market you tell me here's feeder cattle any risk in the feeder cattle market you guys tell me if you guys with cattle if you don't buy a put option up here go shoot yourself in a foot I don't have a clue if cattle are going to 250 or 275 or they're coming down to 200 let alone 175 God forbid it's 150 let alone if we come back to 100 how many people think that feeder cattle in the next 10 years could go back under 100 bucks again my client knows maybe one other gentleman let's take a look at it that high is around 225 to 235 how low can it go here's cotton 225 to 58 if you guys have cattle out there and don't buy these foot they're going to head I don't know if prices are going up or down or not but I know these puts aren't cheap for a feeder cattle put it's five dollars a hundred to get anything legitimate which is a lot of money five dollars a hundred but what's it protecting it's protecting at least 25 bucks down to 200 let alone let's just say it's just the 200 that's a five to one risk-award ratio cattle 150 I mean the numbers are astronomical on the risk-award ratio side and when you spend that five dollars for the put what do you want the feeder market to do you want it to go to 250 or 275 and you want to lose that five dollars a hundred but if somebody says mad cow or if the economy collapses or anything that can happen to this cattle market which has happened in the past happens are you glad you got that 220 put on for five bucks a hundred you bet that's how you manage the risk now here are my current recommendations we'd have a hundred percent of the corn wheat and beans sold now if you don't have it sold and you've got it in the bin buy a March four dollar put for 15 cents if you sold the grain buy a 440 call for 23 if you sold the wheat from last year buy a 650 call for 32 cents for the soybeans we'd have it sold now if you've got it in the bin for whatever reasons buy a May 1040 put for 50 cents if you've got it sold then buy a March 1070 call for 30 we can go through this at the table later if you want new crop recommendations we buy a September short dated December corn put that means it goes off the December 15th price but it expires in September you can buy that four dollar put today for 23 cents to protect all that downside risk you can buy that July six dollar put option for 40 you can buy that November ten dollar eight dollar put spread to 55 cents here is a marketing plan for every bushel of grain that you plan to raise next year cattle you can buy a 160 put for 425 these are just examples you can buy the April feeder 220 two dollar put spread for five that's a four to one risk reward ratio on the hogs you can buy an 84 put for 350 a hundred this is how you manage the risk you buy the put hope the downside doesn't happen because you're protected the government makes me tell you I've just solicited your business past performance is not indicative of future results there's risk of loss of trading futures and options obviously a top third we would like to earn your trust over time if you come on board with us you open account we clue through RJ O'Brien you work with one broker like Liesel in the office one on one she'll sit down with you and go through beyond those acres what do you have in storage if anything where do you store the grain on farm or the elevator what's your local basis like what kind of insurance are you going to have for next year what have you got sold if anything and then when we get all that information we'd say listen if it was our grain in the bin or our grain that we're going to raise next year here's what we would do and you can say all right I'll trust you with 25 percent of my grain this year that's fine that a relationship in marketing develops over time it's not what I think the market is going to do in the next six months it's about working with you day in and day out for the next 10 or 20 years where your kids are hopefully working with her kids some day now we work with you one on one the only thing we ever charge you was 75 dollars a round turn 37.50 to buy the option if we sell that option off you pay us another 37.50 there's no acreage fees there's no management fees bushel fees any of that nonsense if you stop by the table we'll sign you up as a courtesy for coming here today take a look at my email every night this is where we tell our clients what we know and not what we think so if you want to see what we're telling our clients every day and see the recommendations and see what's going on in the markets and why they're doing what they're doing it's a quick five minute read in the beginning I asked you to spend five minutes a day to become a better email sign up for that email and let's start taking a look at it five minutes a day read that email every day if you want to know what I think the market's going to do you can go to agweb and listen to my audio comments out there twice a day would I bother listening to that I wouldn't waste your time because that's where I tell you what I think and not what I know but you want to read the email because that's where I tell folks what I know we will tell you when to sell okay we don't charge extra for that we'll say today's a good day to sell ten percent of your grain or twenty percent whatever it is and you can take that recommendation or not you don't have to make any trades with us you open up the account you put a thousand dollars in there to open the account that's your money if you buy ten thousand dollars worth of options you need to send me a check for nine grand if you don't make any trades in one year every day you can call in every day you'll get the emails every night and we'll try to get you involved in a legitimate marketing plan we've got three minutes questions about anything we've talked about we've gone through this very quick questions about anything we've talked about come on guys and gals there's no tough questions yes your ten eight dollar foot spread yeah why do you close that bottom just because that ten dollar put by itself is about 75 cents it's just too much money to spend for a put so we're really concerned about that next two dollars of risk and let's say for example we go down to eight dollar beans and that foot spread is now worth two bucks or a little bit more depending on how much time value is left in it nothing says we can't take the money out of that spread put that dollar 75 net or whatever it is into your pocket 780 six dollar put spread for another 40 cents or something in case we continue to go down but if we do go if it looks like you guys are going to plan another four million acres the weather is good in June and July and we're down there you know it's eight bucks by July 15th or whatever we're going to take that money out of that put because you still have an August weather to get through and you could go right back up again if it's hot and dry it's a hard job to tell you when to do that good question one more anybody about anything come on folks there's no tough question nobody wants to ask the tough question gee mark you had four open heart surgeries what if you dropped dead tomorrow legitimate question we have 14 brokers in Chicago that work with this plan we make the decisions as a team on when to which option to buy some of these guys have more as much experience as I do in the futures pits we've got two guys that have spent 20-25 years in the pits as professional traders and we make all these decisions as a team so hopefully I named the company top third instead of gold trading or whatever because I want the company to go on long after I'm gone and hopefully I'm here for a long time when the Lord's ready for me he's ready for me but hopefully it's not for a long time but I want the company to go on long after I'm gone so I named it top third so the name and the reputation of the company stay intact thank you very much I appreciate your time