 Welcome back, it's still the breakfast on Plus TV Africa and now to our first major conversation. The president of Guinea-Bissau, Umar-Ossi Soko and Balot has said many members of the country's security forces have been left dead after an attempted coup d'etat in the West African nation. Yesterday reports emerged of gunfire near a government building in the capital, Bissau, where the president was reportedly attending a cabinet meeting leading to fears of another military takeover in a region that has seen successive coups in recent months, however the president on Tuesday said the situation was under control, calling it a failed attack against democracy. He also said the well-prepared and organized attack, that's what he called it, a well-prepared and organized attack, could have been related to people involved in drug trafficking but he gave no further details. Mr. M. Balot won the December 2019 presidential election. He faced a last-minute standoff with parliament before taking office the following February. Now let's look at the return of military rule to some West African countries and of course let's also look at the implications for the stability on the continent. Want to welcome Mr. Paul Ijime, our guest on the breakfast this morning, he's an independent consultant on strategic corporate communications, peace and security in elections. Mr. Ijime, good morning, Tume, thanks for joining us. Thank you. Thank you for having me. How did you feel when you first saw the news of gunfire in Bissau, the capital of Guinea-Bissau yesterday? It's becoming now predictable in West Africa and what you might call contagion or nominal effects. It was there in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and then you were asking which country next or which president next and that is because of the rush of democracy. President Ampado is talking about attack on democracy but it is the African leaders, in fact some people call them rulers that have attacked democracy and then the military is just because they have the guns that is why there appears to be very pronounced. But otherwise you will agree with me but that when you organize a fraud election or you take power or want to elongate your tenure by changing the constitution and not delivering and you cannot protect your people, you know, their lives and property, there is no benefit of democracy. You are also attacking democracy and I think it is these political rulers or leaders have brought this on themselves. Unfortunately, it is the common people, common man you call them, common woman that is evicted. Here was a man whose election, by the way, still under legal challenge that the Ekoas community caught because his opponents alleged that and that is true that he was sworn in when the Supreme Court had not certified his election and so they said it was a coup and this has now boiled into what is happening today and then look at the bloodshed, it is very bloody from what is I mentioned and that is not good, even though the country is known for instability of a NICUS assistant, independent from Portugal in 1974, he is also a former prime minister and me general, 49 by the way, so you will expect that he will do better. But here we are, these are who, the same thing the French will say, the more things change, the more they remain the same, but African leaders and I will have to check it, particularly in West Africa, about how do they deliver, perhaps the need to echo us is just, you know, stumbling about in the way handling the suspension sanctions, yes, but if you don't follow, if you don't look at the, these instruments that is there for you to use, like early warning system, this was then in coming since 2019 or 2020, that this has a legal, he talked about drug, yes, drug is an issue, but one cannot even know, will not know whether this was not organized to eliminate opponents and so that is what we have in Africa, all very, very questions about few answers. So that is what we have and so echo us, we have to go back to the drawing board. The leadership that echo us in the past 10 years has not covered the serving glory. I think that is the problem. They are not proactive, they have not shown some effectiveness in talking to themselves, to their fellow leaders about the way that they are attacking democracy themselves and not just when the military takes power, then everybody talks about condemnation and all that. First do your own part and then you can accuse or do something or whatever. That is not a justifying military rule, it is an aberration and should not allow, but when you make peaceful change impossible, you are inviting a violent change. Look at how many people have suffered, have died now because of power and ambition. So I think there has to be some reality check, otherwise you will say who is going to fall next. Okay, so let's also, I'd like us to, I know that in the course of this conversation you have mentioned one or two issues, but let's look at what could be the reason for this failed attempt in Guinea-Bissouar. I mean for the case of Bokina Faso, you would also want to argue with me that the issue of government failure to stabilize, I mean or the issue of the attacks of the jihadists at the time led to all of that. And you feel like the people are already accepted, it feels like the people are already supporting and chanting for military government to come into place. So but what could be the reason for this particular one that we're looking at, even though it did not succeed, it was a failed attempt and you want to also make reference to another time where there were several failed attempts at this point in time. So what could cause the failed attempt of coup in Guinea-Bissouar? Well, it is just, in fact, when was it, was it last year, 2020, 2021, there was the military had to address some people over a plot that failed plot. So it is not unusual in Guinea-Bissouar. And then you ask, what is the country of 1.9 or 1.6 million people, but has never done peace? Only, I think only one president has served them a complete term. That tells you a lot. And you have generals involved in drug trafficking. And they have really not, and by the way, ECOWAS had a military mission until when Ambalo himself took and decided to expel the ECOWAS, ECOMIG. So and now you ask, if they were there, like they had begun, probably this would not have happened. But I think he became, he thought he could do it. He could write the weather, the rough weather. It's not easy to govern when you are not obeying the rule. Like I said, his election is still in dispute. And ECOWAS said yesterday that this attempt happened. ECOWAS court was hearing the case and they had adjourned it. And so for somebody who has that legitimacy problem, you will think that he will, you know, trade them softly or be magnanimous. You know, walk on issues that it is not clear, like I said, it's still opaque to know whether this was not an attempt to eliminate opponents or was it a genuine frustration by those who think that he's not doing it's about governance. For a while now, he's there today giving me some, but he's across the region, where I just look the phone on Anglophone or Francophone. It is there. If you do not believe that, if you don't give the people the benefit of democracy, there will be dissatisfaction, there will be anger. And then if you add the anger to hunger and then in security, what do you have? And that is what is playing out in the whole of Sahel and West Africa, without exception. So the leaders or the rulers, they have themselves to blame. And until and unless they check this fragmented violation or constitution or, you know, of electoral framework and code, they will continue to have this type of, you know, assault or democracy. So it is actually the rulers that are the ones that are assaulting democracy. The military, because they have the coercive instruments, the coercive power, the weapon, that is when everybody starts shouting. But when a leader changes the constitution, like it has happened in Guinea, it has happened in the Côte d'Ivoire, when they do that or they lock up their openings or they fail to, you know, address in security. That is what happened in Mali, that the president then couldn't address the insecurity that has been there for a very long time. And then in Guinea, I've said that the president changed the constitution and then Burkina Faso, it is because Capone there, the president, has not been able to rein in these terrorist and jihadist groups, which he promised to do. So this is an, it's a cross if you go to come down, even in Ghana. Ghana recently was now deploying troops along his border with Burkina Faso because of, you know, these jihadists, they are there walking. Eco watch has what you called the early warning. And then it works with civil society to produce reports, daily reports, monthly, that has been warning against this type of, you know, the movement and then dangerous activities of these terrorist and jihadists. But Eco watch has refused to use that instrument to do what you call preventive diplomacy. You don't wait, you don't wait. Once the fire has taken off, that is not when you begin to fight it. You have to prevent it. Bring your fire extinguisher ready, understand how to put out fire. But not because once the fire is there, you don't know how long and how far it will go. This fire is the Eco watch region used to be known as the Kubert. And I think that in glorious past is now being reenacted, which is very unfortunate. Let everybody now, let Eco has used to have, let them bring all those instruments for the conflict management and prevention. And then, you know, how to manage crisis beginning from the country, from local, you know, national level. And then you bring it escalated to the to the regional level. OK. And make sure that you carry the people along. OK. And the people to the electorate is also a referendum on them. And they're choosing the right to put that will govern them. If they are not, let them take power back from this commission. They just put it in the case of formal French colonies. And three of them among this one, France also has a dubious rule. It has a military base. It is controlling the economy of these countries through the currency and then is exploiting them their resources. These are budgets because of the acquiescence, constricity of the African leaders. They have to come clean and govern. Let them show respect for and then for constitution, for rule of law and then for, you know, those deliver on the basics of democracy. They are not doing that. OK, Mr. Jimmy, yes, just follow up on your question about France. It's interesting when they're very, very great analysis, because a lot of people are using this as an opportunity to to to have a conversation or debate about the role of France in on the African continent. And of course, they are one of the major colonizers of African countries with still with great influence in in in in these African countries, suspicion that they're still collecting tax or whatever back to Paris. But are we not over, you know, flogging the issue with France? You know, putting too much blame on France when these countries are democracy democracies who they elect their presidents. You have a certain black one, Campoire in Burkina Faso, who became basically a dictator. I mean, he was just a amount of time, you know, people were not sure when he was going to leave. You have in Ivory Coast, you talked about what Tara also. I mean, he was brought in and someone was chased out, Laura Babu. And now he wants to remain the perpetually, for instance. And are we not not blaming France too much? Because yesterday or this last week or this week, France was able to conduct an operation in the northern part of Burkina Faso and they killed a lot of terrorists. We know how the role France has played in in Mali, you know, first of all against the Tuareg rebels. And then after the Tuareg rebels had to run to hide because of the jihadists. They've also been combating the jihadists as well, given the Malian government, a lot of support, you know. So are we not blaming France for too much with the current state of of of who's in West Africa? Let us unpack it and then because we can easily confuse issues. One is that there are, you know, local issues with, you know, the domestic government system that is not working. That is one. Then the other one is external influence. You cannot rule that out, particularly with French, former French colonies. When you have them, they are there to have them be given political independence without economic independence. Most of them are now using the CFA France. You can't see that it's a domiciled in the control by the French Treasury. When I have your money, it's like when I give you anything and controlling what you are doing. And then you talk about this issue of fighting terrorism. In France, when to Mali in 2013, you know, with the under the trying to support to help. OK, they've been there for how many years now, but also today plus another 15,000 EU troops or forces. Meanwhile, the government in Bamako cannot assess, cannot control things that are happening in Northern Mali. But France can do that. And not only is reaching in resources, and then you say, is it a ploy to just make that place of government so that the resources, their gold and others can be the people can continue to to exploit it. Or maybe that's not one issue. The other one is that France is now meddling in how Mali is conducting his own security. France does not want a competition. Mali has gone to Russia to ask for military support and France is against it. And here you have a co has also supported that kind of fair. And you say, can you really do that? Under what international instrument will you not that will you come in, you know, refuse a country from choosing whoever wants to do any business, be it on defense, on economy and all that. So because France is against that, a co has is also joining and that is part of the problem that a co has now has done for itself. Not being independent, not being seen to be independent. It appears that some of the decisions have been, you know, it is taken from Paris and that is dangerous. This is asking this is the same a co has and people used to know. So France, we cannot, like you said, overflot it after twenty sixty years of independence. African leaders must now be independent and show that they are independent, but it's not showing in name in so many places because they are collaborating with foreign forces to lose their own country, to undermine their own citizens, undermine their own country because of self-interest and that is our ambition. If they want to stay, they will get support, military support from France. For instance, in Chad, Chad is a Central African. But then Idris Debbie was killed. He was a general that was elected. But you know what happened? It was a storm that took power when the Constitution had thought about the speaker of parliament taking over. France was the only, French president was the only president, the only head of state that went to the inauguration of Idris Debbie Stone, Muhammad. And so you see the contradiction. Here you are talking about bringing a fire and brimstone on Mali and other military, but a military boy has also taken power in succeeding his father. That is not democracy. So there is that contradiction all over in the French policy and that allows them to continue. But I agree with you that it is when the people in Africa, even Africans accept this kind of meddling or interference, that is when it will work. But otherwise, if they had come together to say, listen, you get out of this space, legally goes to manage our affairs, be it security, be it economy. But some of these countries are not as fragile and capable of doing it. So they need leaders, leaders that are visionary, leaders that can sacrifice, leaders that are patriotic to be able to remove all these external forces. But it is going to be tough because if you remember that if they come, they are afraid that they can be killed. But if you are leading in Africa and you are really a true leader, you must be ready to sacrifice your life because of your people. This group of leaders that we have today, they are not that type. They are, you know, they worry about themselves. They are family and then they are worse. We should also now try to wear out in foreign countries in France and other foreign capitals. And that is why it is difficult for them to act with some independent. But that should not be. So I hope that answers your... But remind you, too, that it's not only in France, in the Franco-Soviet countries, for instance, Guinea-Bissau is a little foreign. It was colonized by Portugal. So you will say it is more of a factor that has its causing problem there. Okay. Yes, you know, selling trafficking in drugs and there is poverty. There is unemployment and disaffection. So some people have argued that the current trend is yet different from what we experienced in the 70s and the 80s in terms of the coups that we are experiencing in Africa as a whole. I mean, if you want to even look at the statistics now with the recent happening. Now, others are also arguing that, you know, questioning the role of the African Union in all of this, that the African Union and other organizations just hold their arms and wait for these coups to actually happen before they begin to express their concern. But like you have mentioned that governance has always been a major issue. So, I mean, the governance of, you know, democratic dispensation in all these African countries where you have leaders elected and there are corrupt practices and unconstitutional behaviors, which is warranted, you know, the military takeover, which, of course, you would also agree that, you know, the military government is can never be, you know, the best form of governance, no matter the worst form of democracy. So the other question would not be what would be the best form, you know, that Africans need to begin to generate conversation to depend on their democracy. So it's all encompassing question. The trend that we're experiencing, which is almost different from what we experience during, you know, the 70s and the 80s in terms of coup and the role of the African Union in all of this. And what is the way forward? How do we deepen our democracy? Because this is issue is the issue of deficits, you know, the weakness in our democracy that constantly, you know, give rise to the need for military governance. Mercy, I hope you are not a lecturer, you know, because you are asking me to do analysis. I hope I have the time. Well, times and circumstances will be different. What we had in the past may not, but nobody would say that perhaps if we have managed to, you know, practice these democratic principles of the past 20 years, how come we are doing a bad job of it? In those days, remember that some of the countries we had just come out of independence when you had the coups, it was 70s and others. When independence came in the CCC and also part of the 70s. So, like I said, time and circumstances are different. But the basic are still there. It is about governance. When you do not deliver on what you promised on the benefits of governance, it will, you know, create happiness. There is so much that is happening. Then the other thing, I think I also agree with you that perhaps Africa can sit down, the intelligence and everybody sit down and talk about the kind of governance system. But like you said, too, democracy has been is preferred because it has the elements that allows you to change the government or people, those that are going through the ballot box. But what has happened is that Africans now the problem is that they have used those principles, holding periodic election, but elections have fraud in many cases. So the problem might probably not be with democracy, but with the practice, the practitioners, the politicians, what they do. If you go and democracy does not ask you to go and hire dogs, does not ask you to go and buy foods, does not ask you to change constitution illegally, does not ask you to to come too hard on your people, not respect their human rights and the rule of law. So these are the issues. And I think until and unless Africans now come back to begin to deliver, leadership is about service. It is not about being self. And that is the issue. African rulers or leaders are one people to serve them. Have you seen some of the the the motor case they use, the how they move, they live in large and so there is a disconnect between them and the people they are supposed to serve. And that was in the past or now. And it is even critical now you have the digital system in the past. Nobody you will probably take days or months to know what your leader is doing. But now everything is in the open space. You have the social media with all its negativity. But it shows that you cannot hide anymore. It's like you and the marketplace. You can't steal anything and hide it behind your back. They will see you. So that is the issue. Let Africans play by the rule. The rule it is the lack of that commitment to play by the rule. That lack of that, you know, vision or when you are there. Because some of them have also made some gifts of some impressive exemplary. You saw the Zambian man man to fully and here and there. You find them sprinkling. But that is not what is required. It was there has to be this grand swell and then, you know, a grand offer. Those who think with democratically who obey the principles of democracy. Here it is being obeyed in breach. It is being observed in breach, the principles of democracy. They say we are democratic, but how democratic are we? So it's probably not the system by the operators. You're saying it's probably not the system by the operators. I may see you want to ask a follow-up question. Yeah, the follow-up question, because I was hoping that he answered. The role of African Union has also been queried in all of this. Yes, we know we had the regional body, which is echo was. But African Union, they have been accused of just standing and watching and not acting until things begin to happen. And some people say they are loyalty lies with the government of, you know, these African states. I mean, that will not be a wrong accusation. Because remember that this is an organization that succeeded the Organization of African Unity, which fought for the independence and liberation of Africa. You want that if these were the kind of organization you had during that colonial struggle. Well, that is who will be able to liberate Africa. My answer is no. And that is because they are not showing pan-Africanism. They are not showing the African spirit. They are not showing the zero to the. Instead, it becomes a club of all the colleagues who put themselves on the back, bring campaign and all that. Meanwhile, there are instruments to be used. They are not preventing is they are not proactive. They are just that, you know, as if that is not what they are not playing their role, let's face it. They are not or they are waiting until when a leader changes the constitution illegally. What are you supposed to do? There are instruments that on governance and democracy that the EU has. A government has its own. A supplementary protocol on democracy and good governance. But they are only concentrating on when there is cool. Meanwhile, these instruments have articles in them that talks about what a leader can do and cannot do. But when these leaders reach that protocol, nobody calls them to order. And you are right. Whether the EU, whether the ECOVAS, by the way, ECOVAS is one of the economic regional economic communities, I want to call them redneck. And it is supposed to be in your region. You have this type of a micro kind of innovation that we now because you sitting in this by the way, where they are in Ethiopia, they've not been able, can you believe that to stop the fight between the government of Ethiopia and the Tigray? Can you believe that? And that is their headquarters. So you say if you cannot remove that something in your eyes, I know you are looking to remove this back in your brother's eye, when you have it locked in your own eye. So they have failed. And then that is what let's twist it. They have failed Africans and they need to revend themselves. They need to be rescued like ECOVAS. ECOVAS used to be very, you know, it prided itself, it had an international claim as the organization that was very on top of crisis management. Look at Liberia, Seren, Guinea and then all of them have had their issues. But the leadership of ECOVAS in those days were able to manage it. How come these other ones are not doing the same? Yeah, talking about the past of the past reformers of the African Union or the OU as it was then known and ECOVAS. And the presidential former presidential aide Renault Mokri put out a tweet. He said, first Mali, then Burkina Faso, now Guinea-Bissau. The spit of coups in West Africa is disturbing. It starts as a trickle and may become a deluge with a domino effect, like you just mentioned, if we do nothing. And he went on to say, I urge West African leaders to do what Obasanjo did, and this is a question or the point I'd like you to comment on. I urge West African leaders to do what Obasanjo did when there was a coup in South Tome, and do you remember what Obasanjo did when there was a coup in South Tome? And is that a solution? Should that be an option at this point? It is about leadership. In those days, and that brings the question of Nigeria's rule. Now, we thought this is happening. I think Nigeria should be. Nigeria is not as powerful as it used to be. But remember that whatever happens in West, in the ECOVAS region, Nigeria will take the greatest hit. It has the more than half of the population and it contributes more than 60 to 70 percent of the project. So Nigeria should ask the question. You know, pay more attention to what is happening in the ECOVAS. Because otherwise it will, when it fails, if the ECOVAS fails, given the sacrifice that Nigeria has made over the years, it will amount to a failure by Nigeria. Forget the problems that we have at home. But imagine how many 200 million people in the other countries come in to compare what we have in Nigeria. Not in Nigeria's movie. But when all these other countries become uncomfortable and then you have refugees and displaced people, well, they are probably not being able to distinguish between the boundaries. So Nigeria, what do you do? In management, in crisis management, you have what you call the soft, you use soft power and then the hard power. Or this carrot and stick approach. But you have to balance it. There's a delicate balance knowing when to use all those powers. Calibrate it in a way that one does not, it doesn't put me around or become counterproductive. A passenger, we move. And actually, I have done that. All right, listen, I'm sorry. We really would love to take your comments on this. But we are out of time and we have to move so that we can. Yes, but it's been fantastic having you. And as usual, you're on the spot or your spot on analysis is always appreciated. Thank you very much for joining us this morning. Thank you for having me. Thank you for coming. Well, that's the much that we can take at this point. Thank you so much, Paulie Jema, for being part of the conversation. And as things constantly unfold in Africa and in West Africa, as regards the gun politics, we would definitely bring you up to speed with all of that. The breakfast will return tomorrow. The time is seven o'clock till nine in the meantime. If you've missed out on any part of the conversation, it's all right to follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram, what plus TV Africa and on YouTube, do subscribe at plus TV Africa and plus TV Africa Lifestyle. I am Messi Bopu. Have a fantastic day. And my name is Kofi Bartels. We'll see you tomorrow. Good morning.