 Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Good morning. I invite you to please stand and adopt an appropriate posture for prayer. And I'd like to call Mrs. Lyra Thomas-Joseph. I should praise to commence our session this morning. Lord Jesus, give us guidance, give us wisdom and understanding. And at the end of the day that I would be productive and successful in the name of the Father, the Son, and of the Holy Spirit, I pray. Amen. Cooperatives and Consumer Affairs, Honorable Emma Hippolyte, our moderator for today, Dr. Adrian Oje, Economic Development Consultant. Our panelists, we have Executive Director of the Senusia Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture, Mr. Brian Luizzi, Mr. Jason King, Treasurer of the Senusia Manufacturers Association, Dr. Tekler Fitz-Louis, President of the National Consumers Association, Mr. Joseph Cox, Assistant Secretary General, CARICOM, joining us virtually. Representatives of the various business associations and organizations, management and staff of the Ministry of Commerce and the Department of Finance, in-house and virtual audience, members of the media, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. It's a beautiful day and I'd like to thank you for joining us today as we have this very important discussion on inflation. Today, we will have a candid discussion as the members of our panel, they were not paid, so they will be very frank. And at the end of the day, we are hoping that after all is said and done, we can do our review. A lot has been done to deal with that elephant in the room called inflation, but we still like to include the members of the public. We would like to hear from you so that anything that we have not considered, we would like to consider your feedback so that we can continue to deal with that elephant in the room called inflation. At this time, I would like to invite our Honorable Minister, Minister Emma Hiperlite from the Ministry of Commerce, as she delivers the opening and welcome remarks. Minister. The Ministry of Finance and Commerce, Dr. Adrian Oje, distinguished with our moderator for this session today, distinguished members of our panel, Ambassador Joseph Cox of Paricom, Dr. Sector Lewis of the National Consumers Association, Mr. Brian Lewisi, Director of the St. Lucia Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mr. Jason King, Treasurer of the St. Lucia Manufacturers Association, Staff of the Ministry of Commerce, I see the President of the Fashion Council, technical other staff of the Ministry of Finance, other members of our in-house audience, members of the media, those of you joining us via the live stream, esteemed ladies and gentlemen, friends and well-wishers, particularly in this festive season, I want to wish you a warm and pleasant good morning to all of you. And we are here from this lovely hotel, Belju, near the summit of the Lapanse Hill Intastry St. Lucia. And today we have taken some time out to come together to discuss a very topical and somewhat controversial subject which has been on the lips of all citizens, not only of St. Lucia, not only of the OECS, not only of Paricom, but of the world. In one way or another, over the past two years, between 2022 and 2023, we all have been having one conversation or another concerning different things, high prices, cost of living, we have our own terminology. But the subject in question is the experience by many of high and rising prices of goods and services across all sectors of our domestic economy, but more so in food, retail and the distribution sectors. This sentiment regarding a marked and sustained increase in prices has been so widespread and broad-based that it has culminated in the crescendo of voices, even resulting in a petition crying out in anguish and despair for some kind of intervention and relief from businesses and, of course, our government. In brief, the observed phenomenon of a great increase in the price of goods and services over a given period of time is what the economists call inflation. It is measured by percentage changes in the consumer price index, which captures movements and prices of items in our consumption basket. This basket is made up of various goods and services, or sub-indices on which we typically spend our money, albeit in different proportions or weeks on a monthly basis. And these sub-indices include one food and beverages, two shelter or housing, three clothing, four transportation, five health, six recreation or entertainment, seven education and eight communications. Although some of these indices have moved more than others, they have all generally increased. As a result, we have been told by our statistics office that there has been some 6.3% increase in the average cost of this consumer basket. But where did this episode of inflation come from? Most of you have been asking, and some of you have been speculating. While there are many causes of inflation, such as increases in price of inputs or the money supply, the recent spike in inflation, which the world has been experiencing over the period 2021-2023, has been largely attributed to the post-COVID era. As we recovered from COVID, you have as well disrupted global supply chains where we have been unable to respond or match the surge in global demands across many commodities, including oil and food, compounded by shipping delays and other logistics-related bottlenecks as economies reopen. This supply shortfall and imbalance in global markets serve to drive prices upward, resulting in a peak in global inflation in 2022, which ranged between 7.2% to 9.8%. In advanced economies such as the US, the Euro area, and emerging markets, the highest in decades, and in the US up to last night when the news was saying it's the highest in 40 years. In Centrucia's case, inflation likewise climbed to an unprecedented high, causing much anxiety and consternation among the population. But why should we care about inflation? What are some of the impacts of inflation? We, including the government, are concerned about inflation, and rightfully so, because it has a deleterious and negative impact on individuals and households in a number of ways. For example, it slows down economic growth. It reduces our purchasing power and increases the cost of living. Left unchecked, inflation also reduces the real value of our savings and makes creditors worse off. As a real value of debt payments reduces as inflation rises. For these are not the reasons. Inflation is in many ways against the grain of good macroeconomic management. And central banks and governments around the world do all that is possible to take corrective action to contain inflationary impulses in an attempt to restore price stability, which is critical to the attainment of prosperity and economic growth. So today, why are we here? We felt it was important to have public outreach and consultation. That is to help us make sense and better understand all of this and what we have all been experiencing in this country and the world over with respect to this problem. In terms of what it is, what caused it, its effect and what we can expect going forward. The Ministry of Commerce has partnered with the Ministry of Finance to present to you this public consultation on this very pertinent subject of inflation. Even the esoteric nature of the subject matter, we have brought together a mix of technical expertise from within and outside the public service and we have gone as far as Charicon, which is going to bring us, give us a regional perspective to engage us on the subject. In so doing, we begin with two presentations which I am confident will dissect the anatomy of inflation in its local, regional and international dimension so that we can all get a better and more informed appreciation of this macroeconomic situation. The information to be presented to us in the presentations will provide an analytical context and point of departure which our esteemed panelists can use as a launchpad to further elaborate on the issues raised under the able guidance of our distinguished moderator, Dr. Oje. This initiative in which we have sought to reach out to engage the consuming public in the constructive dialogue on the subject of utmost importance is part of my ministry and my government's approach to policy formulation based on a more participatory and interactive relationship with our principal clients, namely yourself as consumers, as well as the business community and the general public. Although, as I am told, rates of inflation have shown signs of trending downwards across the world in a number of major markets as well as in central Asia. Prices regrettably remain relatively high and above pre-pandemic levels. This is concerning given that wage and salaries have not faced with such price increases resulting in an erosion of purchasing power. Real incomes and a net worth of individuals. So, not to stand in, I think that today's exercise is time well spent as there are lessons to be learned going forward from the information which will be shared with you, our audience as we seek to help elucidate and demystify the subject of inflation. Meanwhile, the government will remain vigilant and continue to monitor this situation. We stand ready to take further measures in the incoming fiscal year as may be necessary to supplement the policy actions which have already been implemented to help mitigate the effects of the inflation-induced price shocks especially on the move on the more vulnerable members of our society. And maybe remind you here of some of the things that our government has done was disuse the consumer. Only on Tuesday we went into parliament to first we had the passing of the consumer consumer bill, consumer protection bill. Then Tuesday gone we went into amend that bill to provide authority for our ministry and our staff to obtain information from the business community. As a government we have removed the 6% service charge on all price control goods. As a government we continue to provide subvention on rice, flour, sugar and cooking gas. Recently our government removed VAT on building material as well as sanitary products. We have the placement, we have placed sanitary products on the price control. On the government side we have provided relief in tax arrays and fines so that our businesses themselves could maneuver through this difficult period. So you have a government that is very conscious of what is happening to our consumers and we actively try to see how we can bring some to the people of San Francisco. So finally while our policies responding to deal with inflation have predominantly been from the perspective of protecting or advancing consumer welfare we also equally we are also equally concerned about our business community as producers and providers of goods and services. With that in mind we intend to work with our retailers, distributors and manufacturers to strengthen the regulatory environment for the conduct of businesses and who should. So as to ensure the prevalence of ethical and fair trading practices that will help to curb and suppress excessive price increases and by extension inflationary pressures in the economy. With no further ado I would like to extend season greetings to all of you and wish you a very productive and unfettered discourse on the subject before us. As we seek to hear from you and our panelists on this very important subject of inflation. Thank you and we God guide our discussion. So summarize the measures that have been implemented thus far to give some relief. We now have two presentations one will be one of the presentations by Ms. Chema Lafe Chema is the director of the research and policy unit in the Department of Finance The second presentation will be done by Dr. Thomas Samuel and Dr. Samuel is the trade advisor in the Ministry of Commerce and this is to provide you with the facts and additional information so that persons will be well informed and this will also set the tone for our panel discussion so I would like to invite Gemma Lafe followed by Dr. Samuel Thank you all. Honorable Minister Hippolit, distinguished panelists representatives of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce representatives from the business community the online audience and the public in general following through from the comments and remarks by Minister Hippolit we would like to delve a bit deeper into the macroeconomic problem called inflation by taking a look at pretty much what is inflation why is it a problem and then we will basically move into looking at the inflationary trends globally then originally and also domestically with the semesters economy and then we will briefly glance through the various measures that have been taken by the government in semesters mitigating the effects of inflation and then we will end by basically presenting you with a brief outlook of inflation for the rest of this year and into 2024 so as the Minister Hippolit articulated quite well inflation as we most of us know is the the general rise in the prices of goods and services in the domestic economy over time and it has many causes it is both driven by external factors as well as domestic factors generally we have factors that affect demand for goods and services and also factors that affect supply in a sense that the cost and availability of goods and services are affected by a number of cost factors that affect various inputs into the production of goods and services such as raw materials inputs that electricity and transport as well as labor costs the Minister touched on the wage issue regarding the nexus between wages and inflation and so to the extent that inflation really reflects the balance between supply and demand at any given point in time it really reflects the more dominant factor whether supply or demand has actually driven us to a particular point to experience high inflation so inflation quite apart from inflation being an increase in the prices of goods and services it really becomes a macroeconomic issue when inflation rises above a certain level so generally countries expect and encourage or desire to achieve moderate levels of inflation in a given year however when inflation surpasses that average or that limit it begins to be problematic when persons actually feel the pinch and the pockets and the purchasing power and it becomes more broad based to a wider range of goods and services it also creates quite a bit of uncertainty and affects the way consumers businesses and investors behave which then basically presents a problem for the economy going forward as business confidence and consumer confidence could be affected which would then impact the business or consumers ability to spend and basically encourage activity in the economy in terms of how it is measured the central statistics office which is commonly known as the statistics department usually uses an index what we call the consumer price index which is based on a household survey that is taken at a given point in time to reflect the average consumption of goods and services as said basket of goods and services by the average household these items are tracked on a monthly basis by the department and reported on a monthly basis the basket includes a wider range of goods and services while most persons who tend to think of inflation as only being the cost of goods particularly what is spelled as a supermarket is a lot broader concept than that in the sense that it affects the cost of insurance, travel, communications recreation, other services and other goods not commonly not commonly complained about in the general public in terms of what has happened globally and what took us to where we are now we will see that for instance in the week or during the pandemic the countries that have actually the advanced countries of the world the major economies in the world have a lot of monetary policies to help calm down inflation and to basically bring some relief to the consumers and the citizenry so just to provide you here with a pictorial impression of what has happened and transpired since Covid we would see here from the graph on the left that inflation globally has escalated in 2022 from just about 4.7% in 2021 to about 8.7% and it has presented a multi-decade increase that's the highest inflation rate since the last 40 years and in 2023 given having experienced a high elevated level of inflation as I said before advanced economies, particularly central banks in those countries would have taken so many interventions to help bring down inflation and to basically achieve the macroeconomic goals for the economies so as a result of those actions there is a rate of inflation from 8.7% to 6.9% I would just like to reiterate here that while we see inflation declining globally it does not mean that the prices are falling it means that prices are rising at a slower rate than we experienced in 2022 so then the question becomes what led to that escalation in prices in 2022 of course in the wake of Covid when they were locked down across the world when economies reopened thereafter when the vaccine was distributed and implemented across many countries we see that the government would have opened up, would have created a strong demand which exceeded the availability of the supply of goods across the world also too in trying to provide in some relief to persons during the Covid pandemic governments around the world have embarked on significant fiscal stimulus to provide relief to the citizenry and also at the same time from February-March of 2022 we saw that this situation is exacerbated by the Russia-Ukrainian war and then with that came higher oil prices and additional increases in food prices in terms of looking closer at what were the specific factors that led to the increase that we saw from the middle of 2021 and throughout 2022 we see for sure that the legal effects of the Covid pandemic would have contributed significantly to the escalation in prices across the world so we recall that there were clogged ports across the world containers were stuck in some parts of the world like China as a result of that there were other backlogs that countries were awaiting the orders that were actually put in before also there were input bottlenecks and shortages that were affected by Covid and also having experienced Covid some persons did not return to the workforce so these Covid related issues created what we call a supply chain bottlenecks that we would have experienced in that period we also saw with that there was a heightened increase in the price of shipping to move containers across the world and that would have contributed to the number of products across the world and the freight cost is also linked to the escalation in oil prices and commodity prices which have been made worse by the Russia war in the first quarter of 2022 and quite apart from that there were also some sectoral shifts in demand where most of this inflationary pressures or factors would have eased somewhat in 2023 and some of that being the unwinding of fiscal stimulus by the governments they had expired and come to an end and also too that was coupled with the fact that the governments were also introducing interest rates increases to help cool down demand and hence suppress consumer spending just to show you here that the contribution of course to inflation in 2021 2022 towards the end of this quarter in 2023 as we recall would have gone up from $68 a barrel in 2021 to about $95 a barrel in 2022 and in 2023 it has declined by just about 17% to just about $80 a barrel just to show you here what has happened with this demand we see that production in the non-opet countries would have increased substantially particularly from the US some small contributions from Guyana in the region and again in 2022 especially and so for the first quarter of 2023 we had the efforts by the countries largely Saudi Arabia and Russia to have proper keep prices of oil high but these forces or that factor was counterbalanced by the efforts of the non-opet countries to increase production that downward pressure on prices again just to indicate here that one of the major further part from having the decline in commodity prices many food and oil prices another major contributor to the decline that we saw in inflation in 2023 was the continued tightening of monetary policy by the central banks around the world so we see here on the graph that there was a steady increase in the policy interest rates by the central banks in the US in Europe, Canada and other major advanced economies in the US specifically which is our major trading partner we see that rates increases were 11 times during the course of from March of 2022 to July of 2023 moving from essentially 0% interest rate in March of 2022 to just about 5.25% in July and it has remained at that rate since July as a result of the decision by the Federal Reserve to pause in the interest rate hikes given that they are satisfied with the movements in inflation in the US given that downward trend that has been reported in the US we saw that inflation would have actually declined from 8.1% a peak of 8.1% in 2022 to just about an average of 3.5% in 2023 or the UK as well although inflation has been a lot more stubborn in the UK than in the US given that the UK and Europe is a lot more exposed to the effects of the war that is closer to them than the US and also we see in the other major economies like China not much differences in inflation given their own economic situation there and Canada's similar pattern in terms of how those external environment economic environment has affected the international economy we see that similar pattern reflected in our original performance whereas given that we are an open economies all of us and the rest of the countries in the region we see that we also experience a tempering of inflation lower inflation rate in 2023 but again prices remain elevated above the pandemic level we've zeroed in a bit on the specific region the subregion, the ECU where we have shown you on the graph on the left here that all countries experience that escalation in inflation in 2022 and we see some early signs of a sustained decrease in 2023 more so in the second half of 2023 in Dominica for instance we see here that the rate has moved from 9% when we compare June of 2023 to June of 2022 to just about 3.6% and the same in Antigua from 10.5% to just about 2.8% San Lucia has a similar trend as other countries except for a few countries where we see a very similar performance for inflation more so in Barbados when we get to the non-ECU discussion so for the years for all of 2023 including the projection for the last quarter of 2023 we see here a similar pattern as we saw in the global economy that inflation would have peaked in almost all the countries in the region in 2022 and started to come down in 2023 so for San Lucia we see here a similar pattern as in other countries and also in the non-ECU countries Barbados, Jamaica, Ghana some of an exception in the sense that it had experienced some effects from the tropical storms on some of the adverse weather patterns which affected agricultural produce in that country and also there was a rapid increase in the demand for services when the economy actually opened up some of the laser than San Lucia in terms of how all of that has actually come to bear on San Lucia's economy and what we have experienced here in San Lucia regarding the price movement we see a similar pattern that prices are beginning to increase at a slower rate and we have seen at how much higher levels than average consumer would like so of course being open and vulnerable to all of the vagaries in the international environment we see here that the global monetary policy does have an effect if I lag in San Lucia we also see that the movements in trade cause as an impact on our important price of goods we also see here that the increase in production would have been affected by higher electricity costs and transport costs and raw materials as well in 2022 and the reverse would have happened in 2023 we would have seen that for instance electricity costs closely linked to the cost of all prices would have gone down in 2023 vis-à-vis 2022 and also some of the factors that are domestic and specific to the regions in San Lucia that have created inflationary pressures we would have seen since more persons came back to work following the COVID lockdown since in San Lucia employment increased and with that led to increased aggregate income amongst persons there's people who have more money to spend and that would have actually put pressure on prices as demand would have been high we also see some effects on agriculture produce where the availability of some of the produce would have been affected by tropical storm bread earlier in 2023 and with that we would have seen some increase in agriculture prices we also have another factor that affects inflation domestically and everywhere else there's also any movements in the government's tax policy and the tax increases would also tend to contribute to an increase in prices and we also see here that possessibility to spend is also affected by any increase that has been given in credit whether through the form of loans through credit unions, banks institutions would have increased demand and thereby put upward pressure on prices so in San Lucia we see here as at September when we compare September with September we see that the inflation rate would have gone down from 7.6% a year ago to just about 2.6% in 2023 and the major components of that really is the food would have contributed to about a quarter of the increases that we'd have seen and we also see here in San Lucia that the same factor that contributed to the increase in 2022 which is utilities and gas and fuels who would have been reversed to some extent where we saw decreases in this product in 2023 and that would have contributed to the slowing down of the rates of increasing prices in San Lucia just to illustrate here more specifically what has happened with a major input cost that most persons deemed to be very high in San Lucia which affects production costs as well as affect households in the form of their residential electricity bills and we could see here that the domestic rates, the graph on the left would have shown there by the dotted line in red that the electricity rates are substantially lower in 2023 from April compared to the same months in 2022 and that's again is as a result of the decline in world oil prices which is reflected in the decline in the price at which Lusile could have imported diesel to generate electricity in San Lucia and there's an almost an immediate pass through with a button month flag that where consumers actually see that reflector on their bills through what is called the surcharge that really reflects the adjustments in the imported price of diesel and a similar pattern was seen for commercial rates which affects the cost of production of goods and services in San Lucia so businesses would have benefited or would have put some sort of relief in 2023 from a slightly lower oil prices which are down by about sorry electricity prices is down about 5% in 2023 for San Lucia overall as we would have shared earlier for the other countries we expect that on average that the consumer price index would have changed or increased by just about 4.2% and that compares with a high of 6.4% in 2022 so we do see that the rate of inflation is coming down but it's still not at the rate as pre-COVID levels prior to COVID or even during COVID we had some years of deflation where prices actually declined for the most part and it's still above the desired rates of inflation and we do expect that to continue to fall gradually into the next year so in terms of having that experience of inflation in 2022 and it continues in 2023 the question then is what has the government done to basically provide some relief and to cushion consumers from the effects of these rising prices the Minnesota touched on some of it I guess I will take you through some additional measures that were undertaken for the Ministry of Commerce there were elevated levels of subsidies and the rise of flour and sugar the government warehouse would have purchased particularly flour at a much higher price in 2022 and kept prices domestically unchanged for quite a while before the prices were increased to a very small extent and still way below the price at which the government actually purchases those bulk items so sugar to some extent was also subsidized and also rise in total the government would have spent just approximately $15 million in the fiscal year 2022-23 on subsidizing those items and with a slight increase in the retail price of some of them we'd have seen that the costs would have gone down but still very high at $11 million this financial year 23-24 the government would have also undertaken to waive the cost 6% customer service charge at the border on the imports of price control items during the months of June to October of 2022 also in order to assist some government workers in the cost of transport and the ease of transport the government would have actually provided vehicle concessions for travel workers travel officers, customs officers correctional officers essential workers like doctors, nurses police officers and also the government would have actually given two sorts of one of increases to pensioners whose incomes are fixed pensioners in the government payroll and we'd have seen an increase of it's granted to pensioners of about $600 in October of 2022 2023 both cost together cost in just about $3.5 million and of course the government subsidy on LPG continued but it was also increased significantly even that the price of oil or the important price of cooking gas would have gone up significantly in 2022-23 so the government would have subsidized an average the price of the 20 pound cooking gas cylinder for $50 a cylinder and while it has gone down a bit in 2023-24 in this financial year it is still high at $15 per cylinder that has cost the government just about $13 million in the year 2022-23 and just about $11 million is projected for this financial year 2023-24 added to that and to assist persons in opening of the inflationary situation the government would have actually honored the grid salary increases and paid those increases that were deferred for the triangle 2019-20 to 2021-22 and these were all paid for the last two years of the triangle in the year 2022-23 for this year 2023 more specifically the government would have continued its efforts to provide relief by embarking on personal income tax reform whereas persons were many persons were taken off the tax net they were not subject to salaries or not subjected to the payment of income tax and the government would have done that by increasing the threshold from $18,000 to $25,000 meaning that for all persons now earning $25,000 and less would be paying no income tax so that has provided a lot of relief to persons providing them with additional spending power and that started in January of 2023 furthermore in the government's budget announcements this year the government would have implemented the waiver of BAT on bill materials select bill materials for a period of two years from August of 2025 and a similar thing was done for solar PV systems to help persons from a lot more long term view reduce their electricity bills by beginning to invest in solar PV systems and also contributing to the agenda and the mandate for climate change compliance the government also this month would have as announced is about to provide many taxpayers with income tax relief income tax refunds additional $10 million in the form of income tax refunds in a given year the government would have budgeted about $10 million for income tax refunds but for this financial year that budget is expected to more than double to basically help persons to have additional spending power at this point in time additionally for producers in the agricultural sector the government would have increased the fuel rebate to fishermen from $1 to $250 per gallon and also the teacher material allowance was increased by $600 to $1400 to every teacher at a cost to the government in terms of the inflationary environment now and where we see prices heading more globally and also of course in San Lucia we expect that prices will continue to actually the rates have increased in prices which is inflation is expected to continue to decrease and this term is normally called disinflation but it's disinflation where prices are still increasing but it's increasing at a slower rate globally we expect that prices with the inflation rate is expected to basically move from 6.9% in 2023 to just about I can't see the screen 5.8% yeah sorry yeah so about 5.8% and for the years beyond that in 2025 it's expected to move towards the inflation targets of about 2% in going forward and we see the same thing but this efforts have been led by the US the largest economy in the world the US economy I would have heard in the news yesterday when the federal reserve signaled that although they've continued the pause and the pause in interest rates increases that there is a possibility that there may be interest rate decreases in 2024 but that remains to be seen and heard by contribute to a spiral basically set in motion the transmission mechanism for inflationary pressures to increase even further also added to that we have what's happening in China which is the second largest economy in the world where China's economic issues with the real estate sector has presented some problems and has been a drag on the economy and that is also presenting some downward pressure as well on prices so with that we expect that in St. Lucia that inflation is likely to return to its pre-COVID norms of just around 2% to 3% in 2024 but again of course that is subject to many different risks we have of course the many ongoing wars around the world if there's any escalation in the Ukraine-Russia war also the Hamas-Israel war and also more closer to us how the issue with Venezuela and Guyana plays out we may experience additional inflationary pressures but some periods of time in 2024 also Asia sorry Russia and Saudi Arabia have continued the efforts to basically constrict or reduce the supply of oil so as to increase the price at which oil has been sold that any further increases in the cuts production cuts could cause inflation if that these cuts are not made up by excess production elsewhere around the world and of course we have the tensions between China and Taiwan China being a major producer of goods across the world that could affect the availability and the distribution of goods and also the prices and we're also vulnerable to natural disasters all under climate change that could continue to disrupt the supply and price of agricultural produce and we also have the factors regarding wages could also contribute to higher increases in the prices but again like I indicated just a while ago any changes in the sentiment by the central banks around the world to not only just stop the increases in interest rates but to basically decrease that that would also contribute to the pressure to bring prices down around the world so with that I will conclude by saying that inflationary pressures I expect it to persist but are much more subdued and also just for the listeners to bear in mind that while the government has done and undertaken several measures to mitigate the effects of inflation we need to also be mindful of the fact that the government has to pursue many different macroeconomic objectives quite apart from providing a scene of high stability and maintaining macroeconomic stability in general the government not only would seek to provide relief to consumers but the government also has to generate sufficient revenue to cover the cost of the production of goods and services and its operations in general that is for education, health, security and the like and the government also has to keep a very close eye on its maintaining fiscal and debt sustainability so that the government could basically continue to provide access to concessional sources of financing and to reduce its borrowing cost so with that I would stop and pause here and allow the second presenter to continue the discussion thank you to adopt the protocol that has been established in acknowledging the presence of the minister Honourable Hippolyte Mr. Comers, our distinguished panelist and moderator and of course our guests and those of you joining us online I could say to you that I would be rather grateful a lot shorter I know we have had quite a full treatment of the drivers and sources of inflation that we have observed the last two years in this presentation I would just try to focus more on what we call the sort of a micro perspective bringing the lens of scrutiny to bear closer on the actual products that we consume and which I think might be of interest to most of you you would understand of course our price build up process as a small open economy we have imported goods that land at our shores with something called the CIF value which is cost insurance freight and you heard about freight early on and I would come to that a bit later on which serve as our input prices to which border charges are added to give us something called landed cost and then thereafter the business would apply some level of margin to cover cost and remain profitable the ministry of commerce through its department of consumer affairs particularly has the mandate to promote consumer welfare and as you can as we indicated early on but also to pay attention to the environment to ensure our businesses are also thriving in a sort of supportive environment but in this occasion our focus is on the consumer welfare aspect of our mandate and that is done through the distribution and price of goods act in 1909 now here we spend some time looking at our monitoring prices prices in particular those on the price of control list so I'll start looking at this I'll start with oil cooking oil cooking oil we saw that the price of cooking oil climbed from about $17 to about $45 it more than doubled an increase of over 165% and that if you notice the period from about April 2020 which is in the sort of in the middle of the Covid era period right up to $45.80 in December of 2022 which is last year so we had that precipitous rise again similar pattern that is widely consumed in our diet again starting from about March which is in the Covid era for various reasons increased to about $30.81 over up to last month now I want to say something about pasta pasta is a product that is subjected to a special regime in the region we have something called in Karikom article 164 where we seeks to promote industrial development in LDCs including St. Lucia so domestic producers benefit from some type of protection and that too might be included especially on imported varieties tuna fish is a one of a commonly used source of protein prices here also increase on 3.5 ounce tins of tuna starting from an average price of about 2.53 or 2,053 cents up to about a higher of 3.5 now I want you to bear in mind that this is a price control item so it means that there's just a fixed percentage margin wholesale and retail margin and if it increases it can only increase for one reason that is the CIF value would have had to increase the input price and that is what this is really showing us then the same pattern that was alluded to early on by the Ministry of Finance from about this September last quarter of last year into the first quarter we saw the general deceleration of prices trending downwards another we go to a hygiene and sanitary product toilet soap there are two same pattern we see that the retail price of soap are going from an average of 2,034 a bar to $3.09 conflicts a cereal breakfast item we see various brands and sizes of conflicts also demonstrated general upward trend of about a 5% increase every few months so we see that general pattern holding across different sample of different products whether they be hygiene dietary or otherwise now I want to jump ahead to another point that was alluded to early on as a driver of cost and that is freight or shipping cost and the reasons for that have been discussed bottlenecks at port as a result of the public health measures that would have affected workers and created labour shortages we had truck drivers unavailable containers and so forth all of those factors would have affected scheduling of ship deliveries and so forth and so that is a major factor but in particular we saw from the US market which is our main trading partner that prices again climbed from March of 2021 all of the way to October of 2022 but after that we saw some sort of a leveling off and slightly trending downwards it was a more precipitous climb in China starting from about mid-2020 from about 12,000 EC there about and the prices increased steadily throughout 2021 to a maximum of about 39,000 in January of 2022 quite a climb and thereafter we saw the same pattern prices of freight I am going down to a leveling off to about 18,474 dollars for a 40 foot container of goods out of China so in essence ocean freight costs really has shown the effects of the pandemic climbing as I said high up to about US 14,640 and in the US market from about 4,225 thereafter pittering out increasing at a slower rate and coming down as I indicated the reasons for that have already been discussed earlier so in summary people like that word in practice the pattern of price movements have been largely the same and increased during the sort of COVID era and depending on the rate at which measures take effect sometimes with a lag we can see the peaks being a quarter or two different in terms of the time and thereafter trending downwards to where we are because essentially all agencies all companies are taking action they are all acting to try to correct the imbalance correct the dislocation minimize the dislocation but as government policy we saw we heard about central banks and companies also trying to remain viable by being competitive and the things have helped to bring price down but there's another factor I want to draw to your attention despite the reduction in freight costs prices, CI values are still somewhat higher than pre-COVID levels and that's why we say prices are sticky downwards unless we have some mechanisms to ensure pass through we don't have the full pass through some of the companies may internalize what we call the economic rents so that is the anatomy that is the story ladies and gentlemen of the inflation experience that we have had I could say to you the ministry is committed to continue to monitor prices and as the minister indicated in her remarks will stands ready to take any sort of additional action that may be necessary in the fiscal year 2025 finally another aspect of this issue is that we intend to continue to work to enhance first of all the ministry's capacity in competition as well as to establish the necessary legislative and regulatory framework to help better enforce competition policy and rules and to ensure fair trading and ethical business conduct with these few words I want to thank you for your attention and I would now hand you over to the permanent secretary thank you very much for your attention and a few days ago somebody said to me I just want to know what will be done about these prices for the prices to decrease in the supermarket etc but you could from the presentations I'm sure you'll agree this is not a simple matter and a lot has been done to date to offer some relief to give consumers more spending power next time I'd like to introduce the members of our panel look forward to their presentation I don't know what will be their contribution I look forward to their presentation I'll begin with our moderator Dr. Adrian Auger is an economic development consultant with extensive private and public sector experience across the Caribbean and beyond he served as an economist with the governments of St. Lucia and Grenada the World Bank, the European Union Ungtad, USAID Caricom and the OECS as chief economist in the Ministry of Finance and Planning Dr. Auger served as economic policy advisor to the prime minister of St. Lucia establishing the office of private sector relations OPSR and designing and implementing the country's first private sector strategy he also served as deputy national authorizing officer for St. Lucia's official grant assistance program with the European Union and was the architect and first secretary general of St. Lucia's National Economic Council he's a former executive director and vice president of the St. Lucia Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture an institution that he helped to transform during his five year tenure he has worked as the World Bank as an economic assistant to the executive director for Canada Ireland and the Caribbean and has served as director on the boards of several public institutions and private companies he's currently a director of Surgical Life Eastern Caribbean the JQ Charles group of companies and landmark group of which he is chair and founder poet, playwright, producer, activist Dr. Oje St. Lucia's first Caribbean laureate of arts and letters and has been conferred with several prestigious awards including the St. Lucia Medal of Merit Gold service exporter of the year 2009 entrepreneur of the year 2010 and an honorary doctorate from the University of the West Indies join me in welcoming Dr. Oje our moderator for today active in the fields of private sector development business advocacy business support services trade negotiations export development sustainable development development planning and competitiveness throughout his professional career Mr. Lucia has a first degree in economics from Syracuse University in New York and a master's degree in national development planning from Bradford University in the United Kingdom welcome Mr. Lucia our next panelist Mr. Jason King is a chartered accountant with 28 years of experience in the accounting and finance profession he has been the chief financial officer of the St. Lucia Distillers Group of Companies for the past 12 years and also serves in the role of company secretary he previously worked at the St. Lucia ANC Port Authority for nearly 16 years serving as the deputy financial controller for the last 7 years of his tenure which included performing the role of financial analyst Mr. King is currently the second vice president of the St. Lucia Chamber of Commerce Industry and Agriculture and serves on the executive of the St. Lucia Manufacturers Association as treasurer positions he has held for several years he is a fellow of the association who has certified accountants and has an MBA from the University of Leicester join me in welcoming Mr. Jason King our next panelist our sole female panelist for today Dr. Tecla Fitz-Lewis Dr. Fitz-Lewis is a distinguished professional who is extensive educational journey and over 3 decades of executive experience have solidified her reputation and figure in management consultancy business development strategies and human resource development her academic accolades include the attainment of a master's and doctorate from the University of Leicester in the UK and Walden University in the USA respectively complemented by an array of certifications spanning various fields from strategic human resource management and developmental training management consultancy leadership and organizational psychology international marketing business administration and hotel and restaurant technologies her diverse career path has seamlessly transitioned between the public and private sectors showcasing her versatility certainly Dr. Fitz-Lewis serves as currently sorry Dr. Fitz-Lewis serves as the director of operations and human capital management at Lewis Industries limited in St. Lucia and is also CEO and principal consultant of Lewis management consultancy services furthermore Dr. Fitz-Lewis commitment to professional excellence is underscored by her active participation on numerous boards and within various professional affiliations as the proud president of the National Consumer Association she continues to champion consumer rights exemplifying her dedication to personal and professional growth while consistently striving for excellence her active engagement in these organizations underscores her unwavering dedication to the development of people organizations and country let's welcome Dr. Fitz-Lewis so I now move on Zoom platform I extend a warm welcome to Mr. Joseph Cox he is the assistant secretary general economic integration innovation and development at the Caribbean community secretariat and applied economies consultant and advocate with a career spanning 30 years Mr. Joseph Cox is currently the assistant secretary general at Caricom Secretariat in Georgetown Guyano a Jamaican national he holds both a bachelor's degree and a master's degree in economics from the University of the West Indies his contribution to regional regional development has included the recent authoring of a book entitled The New Normal a post COVID primer for business conceptualized and received unanimous approval from coated of the Made in Caricom initiative development and successful execution to the Caribbean center for renewable energy and energy efficiency of a project preparation facility for the development and implementation of a regional strategic intervention framework dubbed the program of technical assistance to Caricom territories which both short, medium and long-term intervention strategies designed to optimize economic impact in Caricom member states coupled with a robust monitoring and evaluation system so prior to his Caricom secretariat posting Joseph Cox was a managing partner for the Center for Growth and Development in Jamaica and also as Executive Director Growth Secretariat at the Planning Institute of Jamaica and he provided oversight for the Inter-American Development Bank, IDB, Government of Jamaica Competitiveness Enhancement Program. Join me in welcoming Mr. Joseph Cox, our virtual participant and virtual panelists for today. Thank you Mr. Cox for joining us and I'm sure you will agree this is a very knowledge experience rich panel. We have to sum up all of the bios or I would have taken hours to present so we are very grateful and we are very happy to have such an experience group of persons, experts who will be discussing that topic of inflation and also to ensure at the end of the day are impacted by this evil the secret thief it's called or the quiet thief inflation. I want to commend the ministries of finance and commerce for initiating this discussion I think it's a matter that the public is deeply interested in every time they go to the shops every time they look at an invoice every time they consider their production curves and so it is fitting that we should have this discussion and that we should have it as a community so I think that's very good. I would like to note that we are approximately 35 minutes behind time and unless we're extending the closing at a master's ceremony I suggest that we use our time as profitably as possible. I would therefore like to thank my fellow panelists and ask each one in the order that we are seated to begin with some brief opening remarks focusing I presume primarily on their own sectors and their institutional perspectives and then we will go to a broader discussion on the various subtopics of inflation. So it is my pleasure to ask Mr. Brand-Louisey Executive Director of the Chamber of Commerce to lead us off to a broader discussion on the broader perspective on the private sector itself and the impact of inflation on a wide range of businesses across the economy. So over to you, Brian. With aggravated customers because the fancy term inflation really translates into higher prices to the consumer every time they go shopping in the food sector this is something that happens even more intensely because you buy food virtually every day but more often but those of us who have been brave enough to engage in even some simple construction projects we too see the price escalation that has taken place and the Chamber has phrased the problem as price escalation rather than just inflation because we have seen prices and the cost of doing business escalate and the realities at this cost to consumers. We are very happy that the ministry has outlined very clearly the cause and the source of this price escalation we are experiencing and so as our members have tried the institution has tried and one of the last things we did was recently talk to our members about looking at different sources of supply for their goods at our last AGM two weeks ago we started talking about the whole issue of Latin America as a source of supply so we could avoid some of the supply chain that people are experiencing see lower cost of food but also see higher cost and better quality goods at a lower cost from Latin America because with the Russian war with what is happening in Israel a lot of firms have already started shifting their manufacturing to Latin America to Mexico because they are seeing that they have an ability to avoid a lot of the problems they are seeing and so we are joining that factor and trying to find solutions find ways we can mitigate the price escalation we are seeing so we are happy to be here and we hope we can offer some positive comments to the whole discussion Thank you Brian Moving right along Mr. Jason King So I am here to speak on behalf of a local manufacturer which we have to grapple with now of course we need to remain it is paramount that we remain competitive in the local market and internationally so it does not mean for us it is not an automatic decision of simply passing on costs for various reasons we are often constrained in our ability to do so because it is really the market forces that dictate the extent to which we can pass on costs that dictate our pricing decisions we compete at a global level really even when we compete in the local market we are faced with competition from important products that are produced by suppliers, global manufacturers that benefit from economies of scale because they have huge factories compared to our tiny factories they usually have lower energy costs and also lower labour costs sometimes because it is a combination of automation and genuinely lower wage rates so with all of these challenges we have to find a way through but it certainly is a challenge the Ministry of Finance already gave a lot of information about what drives inflation and drives those costs but I can give you maybe specific examples from where I sit so we heard about how raw materials have increased significantly the cost that was also driven by higher freight costs now for in terms of raw materials some of these are commodities and commodities are particularly affected by the rise in shipping costs I can give an example from the initiative stillers and I can tell you that in 2022 the cost of molasses increased it jumped by 51% I'm in one go and for those of you who know a bit about the production of alcohol molasses is the main ingredient in production so you can see how this would have impacted us and it is not again as I say it's not possible to simply pass that on we wouldn't want to it means having to absorb some of these costs so while the consumers complain at the increase in prices, significant increases in the prices on the shelves of everything but there must be an understanding that in fact the businesses are not actually passing everything on but at least most of them are not it means lower margins for most of us and we just have to find a way to still keep our businesses running Thank you and thank you for that we'll be back on track very shortly Tekla if you could take over leaders Definitely, as the soul rose between the thorns let me take the opportunity to join the moderator and my fellow panelists in congratulating the Ministry of Consumer Affairs in seeing the relevance of facilitating such a consultation through discussion this morning we recognize that inflation can have various effects on consumers influencing the purchasing power the savings, the overall financial well-being however my role this morning will be to show how consumers can play an effective role in light of inflation whilst inflation is primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors which have been well articulated by the two speakers this morning and factors which include government policies consumers themselves can take certain steps to navigate and mitigate its impact on their personal finances and the good thing is that consumers are also represented by my fellow panelists manufacturers are consumers the members of the chamber are consumers we all are consumers so as we go through the process I will highlight some ways that we consumers can play a role in inflation and now we have Mr. Joseph Cox assistant secretary general thank you very much I trust you can hear me are you hearing me alright wonderful thank you so much first of all for inviting us we do appreciate it and of course I join you chair in your commendations of the presenters earlier and indeed as I say good morning to all present I just want to make a couple of observations because my perspective of course I'm not going to be speaking to the dissolution experience but I will be looking at the issue right across the region and part of the challenge I think that we are facing as we confront the issue of inflation is also one of measurement because to be frank with you in too many countries the composition of the basket of goods that will be used as to determine the index and a lot of times they are not updated timely manner the weightings are therefore skewed and therefore we have some challenges it's also an issue where I would contend just by looking at the information across the region that there is need for us to have producer price indices because obviously the price of the inputs that go into for example manufacturing process would be not slight would be completely different I would think from that would be to regular consumer items so that's one aspect of it we also have to look at the notion of efficiencies within our market there are great opportunities for you know some efficiencies to be realized for example coming out of the COVID experience there is a golden opportunity right across this region for us to be engaged in assuring which the IDB some recent study has pointed to as a potential 5 billion US dollar market there is also the other issue that I want to raise in this opening salvo as we look at matters of efficiencies and partnerships is that for example in a number of number of scenarios the partnership between the government and the private sector becomes paramount because market speaking if the state decides to waive duties reduce duties etc. but then what you have is basically a compensatory mechanism being employed by the private sector if they are not on board with it you can end up nullifying effects and therefore just giving away revenue for no reason so there is need for us to have a real look at where the market is what is going on and of course I have to sympathize in some respects with both the producers as well as the private sector because right across the region we are looking at the afford to 60% to informality rates so I stop there I'm not hearing no no I don't mind I'll stop there just to point out that because we have the high degrees of informality across the region the policy making space becomes very very challenging and therefore we have to take that into consideration as well you asked me to further some of the points I raised I think these points will be discussed generally as we speak but because we have a little high from the AGM and our discussion with Mexico and Brazil I think it is potential because Brazil and Mexico are two of the largest economies and two of the largest exporters and manufacturers in the world and they are number one and two in Latin America Brazil is one of the largest exporters to the US Mexico as well a lot of the products you buy from the US much more than you believe are manufactured in Mexico Mexico is actively pursuing dealing with some of the largest challenges of shipping from Mexico and not having to go through Miami Mexico is the largest producer of white goods for example refrigerators televisions washing machines Mexico I think is the third or fourth largest exporter of agricultural products to the US so I think there is real potential and there is real appetite in countries like Mexico Mexico particularly has a different approach to how it deals with its international partners and I think they are willing to work so there is that Brazil I do think there is an issue that we have to look at with the Guyana Venezuela challenge but also people love you so far away but as if you are dealing with South Brazil North Brazil you have roadways straight into Guyana that already being exploited by certain countries in the Caribbean so I think again if our traditional suppliers are expensive and we have challenges getting from them we need to raise our head and look otherwise we have free trade agreements with Chile with Costa Rica these are booming manufacturing free trade agreements with Santo Domingo I have argued that we need to revisit whether there is benefit in rethinking especially in this crisis time the need for us to to have non reciprocity in terms of export duty free to some of these countries we don't have any obligation of being duty free but if there is a financial advantage to our consumers and our people our producers we should examine it I mean we may come to the point where it doesn't make sense but we should not just think that the best way in a modern trade environment is non reciprocity I think we need to examine it that's a good point but how feasible do you think non reciprocity is for us I mean it could constitute some kind of developmental transfer concessionary trade agreement in our favor well we already have free trade agreements with some of these countries on a non reciprocal basis where we don't pay duties if we export to them and their whole line of items which we can charge so we need to examine that list we need to examine if there is possibility so your point there also raises the logistics of shipping now one of the things that has plagued us in the regional trade has been the cost and frequency and the availability of shipping between even our countries of character how do you see that emerging changing in the environment today where we are still increased opportunities in terms of availability of product but the logistics of getting it from one country to the other do you see that improving within the regional context I think there's enough by region I'm saying I think there's enough work being done for us to see incremental movement we're not going to have wholesale shift or wholesale improvement if however we're seeing Saint Vincent, we're seeing Antigua you see in Trinidad benefiting from trading and shipping from these markets it is not impossible or not with our world to explore so before we move just talk a little bit about developing a critical mass clearly if we take this on a regional basis whereas a region we are looking to shift trading patterns then there's going to be a critical mass of goods moving such that shipping lines and traders and brokers and people like wholesalers are going to be more interested in targeting that end of the market so and remember we're talking to our domestic audience as well break it down and outline what you see as the likely sequence of events for shifting sourcing from crisis areas like the Middle East how do you see that playing out in real practical terms for and eventually for our consumers and I truly believe that legislation and institutional changes follow action so we are already seeing without the ideal situation in legislation and infrastructure it's starting to happen a seeing the major developing countries the US and European countries shifting production to Mexico for that very same reason Mexico itself Latin America itself has been promoting and they are even more South-South trade as a philosophical approach to development we are seeing persons already doing it through Brazil just when I was making contact to have Apex which is the Brazilian port promotion agency speak to us I was put in touch with somebody who is already doing it as a business so I think it can be done again I'm saying if we are first to market Lucia is well located to be the hub for the South Caribbean for the Eastern Caribbean as we have a duty free zone what is the potential of utilizing that so I think there needs to be some intellectual capital invested in looking at the situation and not being deterred that we don't have this we don't have that a lot of things we have we didn't have before it takes some work to get it started and get it going so I'm hoping we are going to have time to come back to this concept of hubbing through Saint Lucia because we have been talking about this we had the proposal for a cul-de-sac industrial zone which is we've had the industrial zone in view for which has slowed down a little bit I think but clearly we have some of the infrastructural links that we need to develop that critical mass if the market is in fact transforming and repositioning then the government action can follow Mr. King you mentioned energy costs and among some of their determinants I wanted to ask and hopefully generate some discussion other panelists please you don't have to sit there and wait for me I mean jump in if you can productivity of labour and urine manufacturing has to be one of the efficiencies that we can build on which of course will make our productive sectors more competitive could you speak a little bit about the productivity productivity of labour and particularly how we position our human resource in terms of what's happening in the fields of automation and artificial intelligence and just so that we can make the link clear I mean we speak about inputs to the manufacturing process being capital equipment and the hard stuff but there's also the softer side which is the human element and the cost of labour and what it produces has got to be one of the determinants of how price and competitiveness are moving so I'll talk about that a little bit we would be most grateful The challenge we face is that we find that in terms of recruitment when we we try to get the best available young minds but we find that in terms of the in terms of the skills required to do to perform the skill tasks we find that there is still a lot of training that's required in other words the workers that we get they are not adequately prepared from I guess the leading institutions to be ready to work and there are two aspects to it one would be the actual skill and the other would be the actual work ethic so we find that recruitment getting the right people is becoming more and more of a challenge the issue isn't really the the wage rate at the moment I think although I know there is discussion about minimum wage I will not really get into that except to see that while I am not but I think the manufacturers generally are not against minimum wage but we are aware that the idea must be taken in whatever decisions are made because while the intention is to improve the ability of certainly maybe entry level low level workers to be able to help them to face the increased cost of living but if the minimum wage causes a general increase in wage rates then that in itself could cause food inflation because then of course businesses would have to try to recover but then we back to the question at hand yes so productivity getting the most productivity out of our employees is a challenge we do what we can as manufacturers we provide the necessary trading but then the work ethic continues to be an issue I think there needs to be an examination of really how well our young people are prepared in the learning institutions to enter the workforce to really be effective now you mentioned you asked about automation yes now automation certainly is effective at reducing at lowering the unit cost of production and that's what we see happening in the developed countries in a place like St. Lucia it is not quite as practical because automation is really only beneficial if you have the required scale of production in other words there is really a critical mass you will reach in production volume for automation to really be beneficial otherwise it actually ends up being more expensive now the way in which I've been St. Lucia has a relatively small population so manufacturers most local manufacturers would probably not be able to reach the required level of production volume if what they do is primarily supply the local market so that means exports are critical for really the growth and success of any manufacturer locally I would, I appreciate the fact that the government I mean through exports in Lucia they've provided a lot of support to manufacturers getting them ready especially the small manufacturers getting them ready to export markets but while exports in Lucia is helping there are other agencies that at times create impediments to the easy flow of exports I will not get into details but these are things that sometimes concern us and we there must be there must be a realization by all of the companies by the government and everyone else that exports benefit everyone so there should not be any kind of impediment I think there should be full cooperation so that exports can be maximized in terms of EI yes well again that is something that can improve productivity my opinion in my opinion I do not think as St. Lucia we are very quick to grasp all of the technological advances we tend to to fall behind I think Covid was an example in a way I think Covid one of the benefits of Covid was that it forced us to actually look at and apply a number of technological advances especially in communication and other things that we otherwise would probably have ignored so AI is the next I mean the AI is where the world is going and I would not want us to be lagging behind as usual we need to be among those who are eager to see how we can exploit it to our benefit but we are not as far as I'm aware there is very limited use of AI effect so that's something we need to change okay so the minister and I believe the chair master of ceremonies asked us for unfettered discussion I took that very seriously so without putting you entirely in the fire I would like you to give us one example of how you can have better coordination between government agencies that would impact your members in terms of keeping cost down improving processes and reducing the impacts of inflation okay well there is a question about yes we all know about the health and citizen the citizen security levy I must say I appreciate the fact that manufacturers manufacturers are appreciative of the fact that the government of solution agreed not to apply the levy on imported raw materials and packaging materials for the most part would have driven up our production costs and therefore our prices however there is still the the fact that it is being applied on services so we will still see an increasing cost but it will not be as significant as for other businesses however there is in the pipeline there is legislation for type of tax on plastic bottles now I understand of course I understand the intent of such a law I understand it has merit but it will invariably cause the cost of production for manufacturers who use plastic bottles to package the products it will invariably cause those prices to go up so that is something we have become so there is there has been a lot of dialogue when I mention exports and impediments to that I can probably give a little more detail of there is there are certain requirements that are sometimes placed on exports that do not necessarily these are not requirements so these are requirements placed by local agencies which would cause manufacturers to have to to comply to certain things that do not actually are not required by by the markets to which we are exporting so I am saying there is really no benefit to trade it does not actually you know it is not a benefit to anyone and it could push up your cost and yes it can push up our cost sometimes it might not seem so obvious but if it requires extra procedures then it definitely brings up the cost so what you are saying is that we have got to look at the demands we are putting on the productive sector to comply to adjust etc. to pay or meet additional costs in terms of the competitiveness of their products yes and we should always consider relevance I mean relevance so I am speaking of a situation where what is being the requirement that was imposed it is not relevant so maybe we will come back to the business of conflicting policy agendas and whether or not things are being considered across the broad macroeconomic spectrum or whether it is being considered on a ministry by ministry basis we will come back to that Techlet perhaps that is a good place for us to continue some of the points that you raised particularly where you indicated particularly where you indicated that all of us play different roles so we are all producers of labour at the very least we are all consumers we have multiple hats and who we are sitting behind the desk may not be who we are at the sumo market or we are all tax players we are all employees and sometimes employers as well could you speak a little bit about those cross purposes in the context of your consumer oriented functions naturally a consumer is one who uses products or services so when we angle that the discussion takes the consumer is affected be it a manufacturer, be it an employer be it an employee we have to look at how does inflation affect consumers I mean we have recognised that it's not a government of any problem it's a global problem and the ministry have outlined some of the steps it has taken to cushion that problem but how does it affect us as consumers we have reduced purchasing power whether it's from a manufacturer by raw materials or consumer purchasing from a retailer as the prices and goods and services rise as a due to inflation the purchasing power of money decreases consumers may find the same amount of money by fewer goods and as Jason said as manufacturers because those raw materials rise they buy it however they have to cushion the cost of the increase to the consumers and we speak in the case of molasses as a raw material to production of rum it erodes savings so it means an entrepreneur, business owner will feel some form of impact that impact would also be downed on the consumer the consumer meaning the person who does the purchasing of those goods or services if the rate of inflation increases then of course your purchasing power or your savings will decrease economies of scale this can affect long term financial goals and retirement planning it impacts fixed incomes because of course as the increase of goods and services rise we see that wages and salaries do not follow suit it is not possible this can affect long term financial goals this can affect the ability for persons to maintain their lifestyle and also it can compromise a business persons choice of whether you increase your goods or services to follow or cushion the blow to ensure that you can maintain competitiveness and the consumer base we see interest rates rising and the boring of course loan sharks capitalize on that we have several loan sharks that recognize that persons need to have alternative income alternative forms of finance and these interest rates rise this puts the consumer into a poorer perspective because you must borrow to meet your standard of living and we have impact on investments do you make a choice of investing at this time while certain assets may provide a hedge against inflation you have other fixed incomes that may not keep the peace of rising costs and this can be an impact as well and we have shifts in consumer behavior and from the national consumer association's perspective one of the strategies we have impact on is to educate our consumers education is very important and advocacy and advocacy we are now in a campaign to increase membership because with numbers you have a voice we have seen it happen in 2001-2002 the consumer association was advocating for a consumer protection bill government gave us the time of day it was actually enacted in 2022 when this administration came into power again it can only happen when you have persons who can advocate accordingly in terms of consumer education we want consumers to use objectivity in their spending spend on the things that you need not the things that you want that's very important for us budgeting is important financial planning is important making a choice as to where you can get the best value for your money is very important so you look for institutions that may offer you discounts institutions that may offer promotions what is the best choice of your spending online, locally these are very important for us as an association to ensure that our consumers understand that the inflation rates are nothing that we can control again we have seen so many or heard so many examples of how it's affected by our macro environment so we have to make a concerted decision in understand how we can mitigate against inflation by the choices that we make as consumers excellent so difficult question but I'm going to straight out there anyway as we shift our patterns of expenditure our patterns of shopping and buying of borrowing what do you tell your members your consumers about the cost of high approaches for example where you're facing rates upward of 25-30% do you advise them to delay expenditure do you advise them to consider that new purchase in the scope of other priorities and also considering that border taxes constitute a large percentage of the final cost of goods are we in fact contributing to a situation where consumers cannot afford certain categories of expenses and so they are finding themselves at the mercy of say higher purchase arrangements which have very high interest charges what do you say to your people about that what I would say to my people we have options again it's choices consumers always have a choice and that's one of the objectives of the consumer bill our rights and our responsibilities and our choices we have the choice to purchase in bulk you purchase in bulk you pay cheaper I mean the government have done if they do have the cash it depends on what you want to purchase our stress as consumers is mainly food do we grow what we eat we hardly grow what we eat so our import bill will be high and I have seen so many examples of where the Ministry of Agriculture have asked people to eat what you grow and grow what you eat and we fail to do that as a country as an economy so we rely on importation of food which is very costly and of course you can say you must buy sardines you don't have to buy sardines you must buy pasta you don't have to buy pasta we can get starch and the carbohydrates we need from alternative sources of food that we can grow right here in St.Crucian that's a good choice I just want to jump in and say that we produce pasta locally so I think you should probably not use that as an example and even the local pasta we produce still has an exponential increase in price well thanks we come back to that I suspect because I think that the cost of financing across the economy is something that bids up everything as does the cost of trading across borders we've ignored we've ignored Mr. Cox for a little while and I see him edging to jump in so feel free Mr. Cox to jump in and as you do would you talk to us a little bit about the basket of goods and whether that needs updating across the region so that we have a more accurate measurement of inflation and whether or not there are initiatives in combating inflation that need to be addressed regionally are there things that individual member countries would not do as well alone that they should be doing together and maybe the shift in sourcing supplies maybe one of those things so what do we need to do together and how does the basket of goods compilation get improved well to be frank the answer to your first question is a simple word yes the baskets of large baskets have to be recalibrated they have to do the requisite household expenditure surveys I would suggest those that are out of date that they do so you do have markets for example where persons would be referencing in the basket of goods items that frankly speaking demand is not really there anymore the whole composition of it if you look in some military sections it's a rent being as low as household expenses being as low as probably 78% the truth is anybody there in your audience as a simple question you really spend 7% of your income on housing expenses whether the rent or the mortgage or whatever it is so that's one aspect of it now in terms of what we can do before what we have to look at is well one looking at the possibility of nearsuring which is basically using our proximity because remember something we are within a six hour flight radius of a market of well that's got 250 million people right so what we have also in a lot of the countries we are housing capacity other aspects of it whereby we can create the market to produce some of the elements that leads the primary inputs into some of the manufactured goods etc etc as we learned for example coming out of COVID right we had a scenario whereby we saw an upsurge in electronic commerce because of supply chain issues persons who are not able to access some of the stuff that they usually use but where were the primary beneficiaries of it China Japan, United Kingdom United States part of our challenge within the region is that for whatever the reasons are most of our businesses do not have a real online presence for some of them they have like a static Facebook page or for some they have absolutely no presence at all much less having anything to deal with an electronic payment platform as another aspect of it what we can also do is that we also have facilities where we can do production integration we have so many elements that can be done across border and countries and markets at least within the region need to look at some of those aspects and see where the efficiencies can be brought to bear the other part of it is that and I know this is not probably the most comfortable conversation to have where this is obtained but there is also an element of price gouging that is going on across our region and we have to also safeguard against that there are mechanisms that the state will have to ensure are effective to treat with some of these issues because honestly speaking yes the border taxes are an issue yes you have other issues in terms of cost in terms of electricity cost or region is notorious there is electricity rates across in the world but the fact of life is none of that and something can explain some of the substantial substantial exponential increases that we have seen for some of the products so the point that I am making is that there is a lot of there are a lot of areas for improvement when I hear for example we are speaking about what the consumer tastes that is part of what we are trying to do here at Caracol because we started to look very seriously at how do we inculcate the behavioural services into policy making because for example of one of our flagship programmes the 25x25 agriculture reducing your food imports by 25% by the year 2025 I would dear say yes that is on track and all being well we should be able to attain those goals but if there is not a fundamental shift in the aggregate demand in the actual taste the demand and taste of some of our demographics in terms of looking to using indigenous food all we prepare the new ways etc etc if we do not do that then frankly initiatives such as 25x25 could run into a challenge over the medium term because if the fundamental aggregate demand does not shift then all that will happen is that whatever gains that we make can be compromised because people are looking for are still gravitating towards the larger market so for example most of us would appreciate this point you are somebody many of your children frankly speaking what they can identify with and I can tell you about all international fast food brands that are in the United States etc but ask them about the local foods and they will probably look at you as if you are speaking Greek so I just yield at this point here but I think you can appreciate where I am going with this conversation yeah I certainly do to a certain extent I sympathize with your unexpressed frustration because we have been speaking about these things for some time meanwhile we continue to be heavily taxed economies we continue to be highly indebted economies we continue to be generally low gross economies and it seems to me and I would like to focus on that a little well watching the time a little later in the discussion as to how do we make structural changes in these economies not temporary tinkering and short-term fixes but how do we make structural changes in these economies to improve efficiency and productivity across the economy we have adopted a pattern of having high border taxes for example which is a tax on the entire economy at one time and this could be verified Senrusha used to have the highest cost per container for both exporting and importing and then we would complain that our manufacturing sector is not growing it's not robust it's not resilient but our costs are very high and our efficiencies are very low our productivity of labor it continues to be a major problem how are we transforming and repositioning these economies to perform better to achieve higher growth rates just for poor people to survive but for poor people to prosper I think these are some of the long-term trajectories that we need to be speaking about and why we address inflation as a temporary crisis which has exacerbated because of the global circumstances in which the world finds itself wars in the Middle East etc we still need I think to have that substantial discussion and that substantial strategy about what are we doing long-term to transform our economies and our societies into better places to do business and better places to live so that addresses both the consumer side and the production side if your manufacturing sector is not growing at the desired rate there is a reason for it it's not because manufacturers want to remain poor and inefficient so we have to have these discussions and I'm very very glad and quite proud to be part of this measure and as minister said having an unfettered discussion about what are the underlying issues here Mr.Lewisi I'm going to give you first short of that and panelist please it doesn't always have to come back to me feel free to jump in with your points Adrian you touch on a pet peeve of mine because this is your what do we want our country to be in 25 years not based on what is happening where it will end up not projecting maybe forecast saying I want our country to be that way and what do I then need to do we had a wonderful opportunity I think after or during COVID to look and say where we are clearly things are not working that's not what we want so let us reboot so we arrive at a different place but we've reverted to some of the very same practices customs are now inspecting more containers than they did during COVID how does that impact it's a nuisance I'm sure particularly if you're trying not to declare things but if you are running a bona fide business straight up and doing all your people with all your procedures how does this impact you and remembering that our subject is inflation and I'm not suggesting any nefarious practices here I'm just saying that if you're running a bona fide business and government decides to increase or customs decide to increase inspection rates how does this frustrate your objectives as a business your goods are in the container on the pot and not on your shelves government is not collecting revenue because you have not paid the duty still in the pot you're not selling because it is still on the pot you're paying taxes and you're paying costs every day it stays there extra and that cost the consumer spending it eventually so inefficiency at that point in the process should reduce inefficiency across all agencies that interact with the private sector and the business community if these efficiencies are improved and inefficiencies eliminated the benefit goes to the consumer ultimately we also you know I mean just some of the comments that are made and I think sometimes we need to change it my good friend Dr. was talking about how prices have moved over time but there's a wrong impression because the prices what the consumer gets how have costs changed did we see the cost of the goods that came to St. Lucia at the pot increased over time if the prices increase and the cost remains the same no you use the term price and I think we have to be very clear when you say the price is the price the consumer feels we have to see what the costs are if the costs are increasing ultimately the prices are increasing before the phrase around price gouging two weeks ago our members do not engage in price gouging you may not like the price you may not like the price but they're not price gouging people go to a store and they don't like the price I go to a lawyer I don't like the cost is the price gouging I go to a doctor Mr. Moderator Order I'm saying you know we need to use the right language to get the right reason we're talking about a simple example use pasta and we said various reasons the cost of pasta has increased and Danny gave the explanation one of them that we sometimes don't think about we have trade arrangements and agreements Article 164 which says we need to support local manufacturers in a narrow line of goods with Article 164 there are costs to it there was a 75% tax placed on pasta it went up these are some of the things that happened but we need to explain it so people could understand and when it happens you must tell them the original integration movement we benefit from being together and there are costs to it we cannot only accept the benefits we need to talk about it my good friend spoke about the cost of labour I think Adrian spoke about the productivity we need to be pushing for a higher return to labour you see if I have a job to move this and the result of moving this would be money if Jason charges me a dollar to move it and I end up losing 50 cents because he's moved it if Adrian charges me $10 and when he moves it I make $1000 Adrian is cheap the return to labour is great so what we want to do so that our processes it's not just using technology our processes are better it infuses our workers with a capacity to make an impact too often we have processes that are cumbersome processes that don't make sense processes that cause waste spoil also so we need to work on processes that are within businesses as well as within the public sector and we have to look at that we talk about 25x25 program that's a fantastic idea sometimes I'm not sure if the analytic work is rigorous enough so Saint Lucia has a huge food import bill how much of that food import bill goes towards feeding the local population so we have 180,000 people but we're feeding a million tourists every year so we have to bring in 5x as much food so if we start producing what we eat are we producing what the tourists eat so we may have to accept that we will have a huge import bill to satisfy the tourists what we then need to look at is how can we reduce that first element for the local that element by introducing them to substitutes but we should not knock the fact that we have that import bill just because it's high we need to analyze it and if we analyze it we can then resolve and achieve things we want to achieve okay so your can I chime in? your point essentially is consistency of policy broader approach, long term objectives yes Mr. Moderator since we have in an unfettered discussion unfettered that's what the minister asked for please give her what she wants as a consumer I am a kind that we do have price gorging especially at the supermarkets and we cannot pretend that it does not exist Mr. Moderator I am a shopper I am a consumer I cannot get the same item at two supermarkets with one having double the price of the other so okay they don't get duty free on the importation of goods while the other have to pay duties because they go through they are both chamber members they both have the same issues as everybody else whether it be customs taking long with the process of unpacking but the prices are different and I look at what you call it spelled flower one supermarket would have it 1895 another one would have it 4495 isn't their price gorging not necessarily I mean same brand I understand that but why would it be double I cannot tell you alright on another note I would go to a supermarket and buy local watermelon same farmer who sells the watermelon sells it by the rule $30 for the watermelon every time you go to the supermarket the watermelon has a $5 increase and I am not speaking about imported watermelons I am speaking about local there is price gorging and we cannot hide from the fact that it happens a phenomenal problem that we have in St. Coucher and everybody sitting here who are either business owners work for a business or understand business understands that our labour market is poor and I believe it all stems from education I am opined that the YEA program youth economy agency has done a great justice to ensuring that young people turn their talents and hobbies into a business why can't it start at the schools it has to be inducted and incorporated in our education system because we have a universal education system it means that everybody have to move through the ranks go to secondary school it's no longer what it used to be before if you can make it go to secondary school and if not you would probably go to the project so everybody must move up it doesn't matter what your educational capacity is you go through the ranks there will always be the technical students and the academic students those technical students are just left to the wolves and they have to be between 15 and 35 now to benefit from the YEA program why can't such a program start from inception I could remember going to Anglican school from stage 1 we had to bring all empty toothpaste boxes and cereal boxes and we played shop and they taught us exchange they taught us merchandising from stage 1 these things do not happen in school anymore but yet still the business people would say oh the labour market we do not have persons who can produce etc and we know that productivity affects profitability so as we look at inflation labour market is a of course it's one of those indicators that will affect inflation and will affect businesses and the opportunity to have productivity and of course to be able to afford to increase wages or salaries of their staff if I do not make a profit as a business where am I getting the bandwidth to increase wages to increase the minimum wage how can I afford it if I do not have the right people to work to be able to bring that level of profitability these are issues that we must bring to the table yes we understand that the government is doing everything in their power to ensure that they can reduce taxes in certain areas that would cushion the blow of our economic growth business sustainability but we still have the issue of how do we deal with the current labour market that we have children graduating from school I interview children graduating from A level from secondary schools and some of them are no more educated than some form ones and twos so we have to do something if we want to improve the market we have to start from the schools because productivity will always impact profitability and that will also lead to inflation the government can give business people all the incentives that they want to be able to order and get things profitable but if you do not have the right persons to produce as Jason rightly said even in production as manufacturers you can still feel it but it's not only felt only in the manufacturing industry I mean I've seen Mrs. Kadase she can tell you how often people pass through her doors and as business people we go through it all the time you Adrian would be able to So you are linking productivity of labour versus the cost of labour into the production schedule of inputs and suggesting that if we had more productive and better trained workers coming out of the education system that our businesses would be more proficient more efficient and therefore could keep cost up in a nutshell Yes in a nutshell and could help with the inflation Just before you go there just before you go there Tecla is perfectly right to have an opinion but the Sinusha Chamber of Commerce maintains that our members do not engage in price gouging I have seen an example I have seen an example where a product on a shelf won price simply because it was bought locally and there was a distributor markup and a wholesale markup on it that person subsequently imported the product themselves where they didn't have that markup and the price was almost half the price sometimes you have to ask questions sometimes I have seen at the market the price of potatoes what I used to buy for $5 is now $10 local products are going to because the consumer who are the farmers are facing increased cost of production of everything so sometimes we see things we don't understand but we shouldn't jump to the first conclusion of price gouging and the Chamber rejects that so we could move on I would like to say in fairness I have seen examples where a distributor for example a wholesaler would have passed on and the price increased to a particular customer and that price increases reflected on the shelf today and it has not in fact been passed on to another of their customers as a retailer and so therefore you would see a difference sometimes even within the same organization you might see price differences but it has to do as well with the cost structures it has to do with pricing policy with margins I cannot rule on the matter that's not my function here and I'm not going to defend anybody but I'm telling you at the end of the day I think and I'm a business person as well and I don't know any business people who raise their prices without thinking about the impact it's going to have on their consumers and on their sales so the business of raising prices well you know business people who raise their prices the impact it's going to have on their sales that's not a business person but they raise it for increased profitability yeah but if your sales are going to go down and you're excluding certain customers then that is not a sustainable not when you have a monopoly on your goods well not when you have a monopoly I think that's a simplified version to tell you the truth but let's move along we are on the business of we're going to open the floor shortly because we don't have a lot of time we are on the business of what can be done long term structurally in these economies to avoid the issue of being so susceptible so vulnerable to imported inflation Mr Cox yeah well what we can be doing in the well a short to medium term is one we have to look at one moving up the value chain so in other words to the extent we produce primary products we also have to be starting to look at the processing of these products so we can go up the the chain one two fundamentally disagree with the previous speaker from the manufacturing sector because part of what we have to be looking at for example where you have your tourists for example and I'm no expert on settings so I don't pretend to be if you have your tourists because it's a general point across the market if you have your tourists coming in part of the things that we have to be starting to do is basically reintroduce the countries fair to the tourists obviously change the taste and so on occur over time but we have to start too many times we travel all over this region and what you see there you really wonder if you're in North America are you in the Caribbean and so when we look at that and of course I have to as a representative here from the Secretariat speak to and really correct any misapprehension or 25x25 program does not have the rigorous technical analysis that underpins the decisions that have been made have been put forward for the countries to adopt because on the truth of it is that when we are looking at when we're looking at the production production capabilities the possibilities for production integration in fact we have gone as far as to have cross-border virtual agricultural extension services being offered there's a level of intervention that is being made so what we have to do is we also have to take on board the use of the technology and not run away from it not make excuses for it but embrace the technology and optimize it for our usage and the last thing I don't want to say on this score is when it comes down to the customs part of the challenge that we face is a double-edged sword because in one respect we do have unscrupulous people who abuse the process so for example I'm not speaking to set notion I'm speaking generally of chicken back what is supposed to be chicken back and next coming into a country right under the the first layer of chicken back and next suddenly occurred many births and thighs in other words a mechanism to avoid the duty we know these things happen and then of course I have the drugs that creates a problem and it works both on import and export because frankly speaking when you have for example 100% container ship I'm stripping right and you're exporting say your vacuum seal say for example you're sending out I'm just going to use a random example something like pantyhose for argument sake your vacuum seal the container the brick reseal to check to see if they are that is really what you are saying is in there is in there but then sometimes the ports don't have the facilities to go for the resealing of the container so I started as a single container something I got the container and I have kind of so the point I'm making is that there are arguments on both sides of the equation where because obviously the import cost and the cost at the port obviously will impact it but at the same time we have to we cannot run away from the issue that you have people as people take advantage of a situation I've had situations for example here where I am in Ghana where all of a sudden if we were judicious in what we were doing all of a sudden a ticket from Ghana to the Bahamas suddenly went up to 5000 US so let us not pretend as if these things don't happen they may not be as widespread as some would like to believe but the honest truth of it is that it doesn't occur until I do agree with you that any business that tries to use that strategy as a longer term frame will not be a business for very long but the sad truth of it is that you do have opportunities who utilize the salarious to extract as much as they can out of a situation and indeed it really does constitute bulging I rest of that here I would like to speak briefly on this not really from a manufacturer's perspective but just from a general business perspective there are times of course when you will see that you have these price differences like what you mentioned you used the watermelon example I did mention earlier that well in the case of manufacturers for example sometimes when we are hit with significant increases on our input cost we can't actually pass it on at least not at the time what tends to happen sometimes is we still need to pass it on eventually for sustainability otherwise eventually we will simply be operating in a lost position so you will find situations where certain businesses maybe they are hit with an increase let's say on something that they buy locally and resell but then they can't maybe at the time they can't pass it on at least not all of it but later on they will pass it on so you will see this much you will say oh but the price I pay for that same item from the farmer it didn't increase and yet I have seen the so market is increasing so that sometimes that's one explanation a delay in passing on an increasing cost another thing too is that the retailers generally have to they have a kind of balancing act in terms of the overall margin you will see that for of course there are a number of items they sell and you know otherwise it's essential and they might not maybe the margin they are earning on those is not enough it doesn't meet their overall margin they have to try to make that up on other goods that are maybe less essential so they will you know have a more attractive margin on those other goods it doesn't now I do not feel that that constitutes price gouging because it's not particularly exploitative it's only exploitative maybe if as you say if there is a true monopoly and then they are forcing people to buy something that you know like people don't have options but I'm saying there is price control the items that are considered essential most of these as far as I can tell are subject to price control so those items that you will see whether appears to be some kind of exploitation I'm saying consumers have a choice so sometimes you know if there is not a decision locally then it's a matter of making a decision because now I'm saying consumers have more power sometimes than they realize for example if waterman and the price of waterman is too expensive and people collectively decide you know what we are not paying for that then the suppliers I mean those selling it will have no choice but to lower the price or it will stay down small consumers have a choice but I want us to be mindful that the things that are conducive to consumers health are the most expensive and sometimes these are what the retailers take advantage of it is cheaper to eat unhealthy than to eat healthy and they usually play price gouging with the things we need to eat healthy a packet of corn curls the prices have not changed apart from one cent or two cents is that healthy for our kids the soft drinks that we manufacture in St. Lucia you have seen no significant increase maybe five cents and it's not price control maybe five cents or three cents have you seen it increased by five dollars or ten dollars no but those healthy foods that you need to consume that's what they take advantage of because you must eat it we have a problem if diabetes and high potential we've learned that that's one of our biggest ills in the country so the doctors will guide you to eat such right you think the little Mali way the low income owner can afford to eat healthy and ethical business practices go on and we must not turn a blind eye to it a typical example of an ethical business practices supermarkets will say they do not give bags because they protect the environment environmental is very important to us now with climate change they sell the same bags come on now you all want an unfettered discussion I'm giving it they sell it and of course one supermarket boasted about the seven million dollar profit just in bags I think it's important not to oversimplify certain things there is a and I really don't want to get into the arbitration of issues among panel members but there is a certain cost to the environment of waste and waste management and degradation of the environment I believe that the logic of charging for a plastic bag or any other plastic is to discourage people not to say that it's not a religious practice it is to say there is a cost to it and you will think about how many bags you use whereas previously all of us would go to the supermarket and we would use as many bags as we are given and certainly part of the process is changing our thinking about how we consume which is a point that Tekla has made very eloquently ladies and gentlemen it is time to open the floor as directed by the program I would like an orderly show of hands thank you very much we have won the first taker and remember that our subject is inflation let us try and be useful to ourselves and to the people listening to us on the media and the web so we have our first question if you want to direct it to a specific member of the panel please feel free to do so and also just give us your name and maybe your sector or your profession some identification for the record thank you first I want to thank the government of Saint Lucia for such a timely and important exercise and thank you Tekla for sticking to that point a few important observations and points I wanted to ask in terms of the private sector you spoke about the opening up of potential markets from Mexico and Brazil to what extent is the private sector willing to really push for that to happen because very often there's an expectation that government is going to do things but we know that we would require the shipping lines we know that we would require for example Guyana is an excellent point of entry in and out of Brazil what is being done because if we just are aware of it in the next five years we are just aware of it then nothing can happen but perhaps the private sector can get together and invest in a shipping line invest in regional travel because one of the biggest problems for the small business sector is trying to get goods just around the Caribbean area if you have to get goods to send kids it has to go to Miami first so at what point is the private sector going to invest to make this happen this is one point the other one I really want to speak to and members specifically requested that we do that especially members in the business of canteens and restaurants I'm really frustrated with what appears to be price gouging and just to give an example to what extent if you have a retailer with only two outlets one in the north one in the south you can see that this is an item at $40 when the bigger ones that have the economies of scale are selling that item for $85 there are so many examples and they actually went and compared the prices so that we could make that point and make it very emphatically and if the point is not to frustrate the consumer then what then is the point there may be some other clandestine objective of what is going on And we want the government to do something seriously about the price gouging. The other point we want to make is the importance of the transition to renewables. This must be accelerated. Members are making an effort to get into solar, although we are told that there are concessions on solar, but it should be across the board because when you go and import the product, you are told that you have to go through the broker and you have to apply and it is not applicable across the board. So we are asking for solar to be, for there to be concessions across the board and for it to be easier to access whatever concessions are available because members are still finding that when you go to Clether Boots, they have to pay still a lot more to get it in. The other point I wanted to make is with regards to the importance of planting what we eat and eating more local food. This is a very critical and important point. And especially when we look at what is happening in the world today with Ukraine and I mean at what point are we going to recognize that we need to find every mechanism and way forward to encourage young farmers, encourage young men to get into farming. We have, since there is no agriculture association, we have several farmers into our association and what they are saying is not a lot of young men are willing to get into that. How many young men are willing to go and work under an existing farmer? But the young men are willing if they get the incentive for input and there are several areas where government land is available, if they get access to that government land, you would be surprised how many young men would go into farming as farmers, as entrepreneurs in their own right. So we want to encourage the government to get into the farm. That was it. This was my thank you very much. Thank you very much. So considering the time we want to maybe limit ourselves to one substantial point for those people asking subsequently panel, some responses, please. First point is as far as exploring Latin America. At our age, we use the tagline that the members are shopping. So already we have noted a number of members are already buying. Stuff from Latin America, in particular, Mexico, the point was raised that a lot of refrigeration, preventive material that a company inherited was actually from Mexico. So there's that. And we are actively working with the Mexican Embassy for us to chart a way forward. They have promised to work with us to do a business mission, either to San Lucia or to Mexico. So we actively exploring that and we are putting our members in touch with our contact at Apex, who's working through Guyana to look at some of the goods that they're already exporting. I cannot explain price differentials. I'm not here to pick up and say, well, this person is doing that, that person is doing that, but we will certainly raise the matter with our members. But I reiterate that there are times where we don't like the prices. And I was, I always tell my members, my wife knows the prices, the things in the supermarket better than them, and she has complaints. But we certainly will look and see what is happening and ask members to explain some of these differentials. I can't talk about the timing of investment and shipping, but there is an ongoing regional group looking at shipping issues and looking at establishing a regional shipping line. So that discussion started at the ECCB and is continuing. Any other panel members want to weigh in quickly on the specific issues? I'll just say quickly about the, about the shipping and, you know, investment in a, maybe a regional line of the realities that once there is a good business opportunity, then business, businesses will actually be attracted to it. When you see that there isn't, as if no one is making the investment, it's usually that there are certain constraints or impediments. So I think maybe regionally, the regional bodies can look to see what is to be done to make it more attractive. It might not necessarily be businesses from the region that do it. You find those from outside that you get to come in. Once there's a good opportunity, then you can be sure that it will be taken up. So it just means that we need to see what is hindering that desire for investment. Okay. Good point. Market driven forces, they tend to be rational economic explanations for most things that happen in economies. And sometimes I think we neglect to look at all the factors driving consumer behavior and driving investor behavior or even business behavior. Sometimes it's very easy to jump onto one conclusion. We've got to broaden the discussion beyond that, I think, to consider other, other factors. There's one point that Ms Sherry made regarding encouraging farming. And that brings me back to the point that Mr. Cox made when he said 25 by 25, we can put a lot of emphasis in growing local, I heard Brian said earlier, that what do we do with the million tourists who come? So it means that we must import. I was a tourist in Nairobi, and I didn't see anything that I knew. I had to eat the food that the Africans cook, the chapachi and all the different names. There was no potatoes. There was no baked beans. There was no nothing that I could have related to in St. Lucia. Did I starve? No. I adopted to the culture and I ate what they grew and what they had at the high end hotel. I had to ask the chef, can I get eggs? There were no eggs available. I had to eat what they had. So we can adopt that philosophy and that particular hotel has a 99% occupancy all year round. So we can encourage, as Ms Sherry said, farming, create opportunities for our young men and women who want to get into it. We have, I guess, several crown lands or areas that we can encourage that type of industry and we can get to 25 by 25 if we really move to that direction as a country. I think that's a valid point. And I think it was Mr. Cox who raised earlier the business of changing tastes and aspirations so that we have a better match between what we are producing and what we are offering. Sorry, I just want to jump in very quickly. Just to say that ultimately it's the hotels that decide what they want to purchase in terms of food and other produce. Where we as manufacturers, what we've appealed for in the past is for government to perhaps tie the incentives that the hotels ask for when they come to operate. They should be tied to certain requirements to buy local. So if the incentive has to do so, I think they will. I think that's a very useful point. In the incentive legislation of some carry-on countries, you do have a correlation between local purchases, local expenditure, visa-reimported expenditure by way of measuring what the sector is contributing. And that gets balanced by the incentives you grant it. So that's a very progressive approach. Changing behavior. Yes, we know that the hotels, as all businesses, will decide what they are offering. But what is the destination offering perhaps as an experience of an authentically sandwiched experience? It's something that government and other agencies have control of and can influence. Mr. Cox, as we get down to the wire, do you want to weigh in? And I say that asking as well, does the floor have any other issues? So Mr. Cox, a quick input from you and then we will go back to the floor. No, my central theme is basically this. We need to reintroduce our people to our indigenous foods if we want to treat it at that. That's one level. Two, we also have to look at some of our legislative events and that will be required. So for example, where we have, for example, push on for transitioning to alternative sources of energy and, for example, electric vehicles to look at legislation to see how we can treat it that in the face of the monopoly providers of electricity, monopoly generation, as well as distribution of electricity. So what are some of the things they have to deal with to treat these things that can reduce our effective overall cost things? But is it is it that the challenge of faces and some in some multiple? Absolutely not. But the fact of that it will take some adaptation to new technologies, new strategies and, of course, good old hard work. Thank you very much. Yes, from the floor. If you would use the mic and introduce yourself. Mr. Scadasi. Yes, Mrs. Scadasi. Good morning, Mr. Scadasi. I want to ask. We tend to think that goods coming out of Mexico and Brazil will not be of the same standard that when it comes from the States. I find, and that's my personal opinion, that carnation coming from South America does not taste like any carnation that I have tasted. If you taste the carnation coming from the big countries as opposed to coming from South America, there is a difference. As in better or not better? Well, in my opinion, there's an after this. There's this strong after this. So what I'm asking is that while you go venturing to Brazil and Mexico, will the standard be the same as when they export to America? Brian, I think that's your question. I think we will not import things that don't meet the standards that are set out by our standards bureau. Yeah, but who is? But the quality and the preference will be decided by the market. So, for instance, we have had instances where companies have tried to introduce new brands and new products and they're not successful because the consumer, even if they're not as costly as the favorite brands, so really, really the consumer. So what we want to do is to ensure we always have choice. You have variety available. You have different pricing points for the products. So that question, it will be determined by the consumer. When, but you're going to explore it. Yeah, but my point is, who is going to guard us before we get it gets to us? Are they going to be standard and show if we're going to ensure that it is our standard that even that we can drink or even that we get. But the bureau of standards, the bureau of standards has standards in place that regulates what can come into Senkusha because anything you import, you must meet the bureau of standards standards. If they understand. So then, so we depend on the. So the lights that are catching on fire were not inspected by the light. Would you always hear that they are talking about don't buy these lights because they not were they not inspected by the. Well, I would say the bureau of standards sets the standards and customs. If it doesn't need the standards, it is not allowed in. If people bring them in or they're not inspected, they have these problems. Bureau of standards issues a recall and puts out a statement so that we no longer have them available on the shelves. We see. OK, so, so I just want to just one. I'm not cutting your I'm just making the point that government authorities can regulate standards. They cannot regulate things to support. So I guess the meeting point between your point and Brian's response is that in terms of quality, yes, in terms of consumer taste, we must allow the market to decide, which is a which is a fair interpretation on the question of electrical goods, specifically, which proposed, which pose a hazard to public safety, et cetera. I think that is squarely back with the ministry of with the Standards Bureau to ensure and the question might be, do we have legislation to enforce those standards post sale and after consumption so that importers and importers and suppliers, manufacturer of these goods are held responsible or liable for the consumer protection acts for the for how you deal with that, like Brian, and who will that will guard the guns. You have to guard the you have to guard the status. By one of the in that vision, we have thought about it and I'm going to have now of the vice president of the because association. And one of the things that I agree with Mr. That we have found and we have been discussing it and hope to meet with Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Tourism that we who actually gives the concessions, the government, but if the concessions come from the country and we have found that in our industry that hotels only take bread from basically, but bread keeps you afloat but where the profit is is in business, son, age and we have thought that part of the government should insist as part of the concession that they take a percentage not they can work with us. If they find that our standards do not meet their standard, that they should be that they work with us, work with the big and whatever that we can produce for them. And so it can then cut the importation bill because that is a vast and not only that grow businesses and then businesses will be able to give livable. Excellent. Sure. So I think that will be the nature of and the subject of the next panel which is going to be convened very shortly by the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance, but clearly there is a need for this sort of open and enlightened discussion. I think that we have raised before and I would just like to touch on it again the business of whether or not all the left hands and the right hands are working together that applies across the macro economy as well as within government as well. There are many times when business people are asked to do something by way of record keeping or availability of information or even application for concessions, which is diametrically opposed to what another ministry is asking you to do. And very often it does not make sense. And very often you have revisions to existing practices which are in fact retrograde. They're taking you into unnecessary expense and procedure. And it has a cost. It has a cost inefficiency and it has a cost sometimes in a real bottom line to it. We're taking comments from the floor. If there's anybody by a show of hands, we're actually passed the 1230 deadline. If there's one more comment, we can take it. If not, then I would ask for very brief closing remarks from our panelists. Going once, going twice and we are closed. Thank you very much, Brian. In reverse order, Mr. Cox. So, Brian, you have the last word. I dare not let Tecla have the last word. Mr. Cox, over to you, sir, for closing remarks very briefly. Okay, the mic, maybe. So, Tecla, would you go there? Okay, closing remarks. I would like to remind consumers that we all have a choice. It's important that you compare prices for the best deals that you can get on goods and services, taking them into consideration that sometimes we do not even have a choice in paying for the costs that we want. But, however, it's important to look for promotions, loyalty programs, considered by Nidberg. I would love to also oblige the Ministry of Commerce to increase the time frame of the barrel concessions, probably that might cushion consumer ability to eat what they can afford, since it would be much cheaper than the price gauging. We also want consumers to educate themselves. Education and awareness is very important. Stay informed about economic conditions and how they may impact your personal finances or your spending power. Understand the factors contributing to inflation, which is the main discussion here. And it's important effects or its potential effects on different aspects of the economy. When we do understand and we educate ourselves and we become more aware, it gives us the power of spending, the power of saving and the power of making informed and right decisions. And of course, the consumer association is always open to memberships with numbers we have strength and we can become a better advocacy voice on ensuring that as consumers, we are not disadvantaged in any way. Thank you. Excellent. Thank you, Teto. Although you didn't sleep in the next couch, I think you just caught yourself. I didn't mention it. Mr. Key. Okay. Well, thank you, everyone, for giving me this opportunity to be here to really speak on behalf of manufacturers. And, well, I have explained at least some of the challenges, the many challenges that manufacturers have faced in terms of inflation and being able to provide our goods at prices that would be acceptable to the public. There are certain things that we, I mean, are looking to do sometimes with the support of the government and sometimes collectively as a manufacturing group. But I can say this, I had mentioned earlier that the higher production volume, which really requires higher sales volume, the lower our unit costs. Where the public can help, in fact, is by buying, by supporting local, by buying more local items, you will actually make it enable local manufacturers to effectively have a lower unit cost. In fact, because ultimately, as manufacturers, local manufacturers, we want to really be in a position to provide a more affordable alternative to the imports, because we cannot control the price of these imports as they rise. What we can aim to do is to, maybe to control the price of our locally produced goods so that you have an affordable alternative. Thank you. Thank you. Mr. Cox, can you hear us now? I like the way you hear that. We were giving you an opportunity for... Yes, yes, yes, yes. The internet has not been my best friend to the atoll. No, in terms of, what I would say, in terms of closing, what we need to do is that we need to look to new opportunities. And what I'm saying is that... We seem to have a little seepage. I don't want to write my name in the database. Go ahead, please. Now, we'll have to talk about... We can be looking at solutions like joint procurement, cross-border procurement, we are applicable, looking at, as I said, looking at some legislative fixes. Also looking at increasing the upskilling that is obtained within our sectors to make sure that people are available themselves of the newest technology, newest techniques, etc., etc., to drive efficiencies within the market. But as I keep saying, we are impacted by externalities. I mean, the extraordinary freight costs that was visited on this region. There's not a whole lot we could have done, but now going forward, we can embrace concepts such as nearsuring, not just necessarily looking to Mexico, but looking within our region for parts of some of the destinations. And also, please, a little more emphasis on reintroducing our local population and indeed our visitors to what is the local fear in terms of food stuff. So I will rest here with my thanks for all inclusion in this panel. Thank you, Mr. Clark. In conclusion, I also just thank the ministry once again for hosting this forum. As you know, the Chamber had long suggested that we need to strengthen public education and we need to open the discussion because resolving these challenges faced by our countries is not a zoning on a prescription solution. I think we need to open our eyes to all the facets and look at all the various areas we can tackle. We certainly think that there is need to support consumers. We think there's need for government to look critically at how you tackle the most vulnerable, maybe targeted safety net programs would be most useful. We think that the support of the agricultural sector to expand local production is also a program that we need to follow through and the Chamber will certainly participate and support all efforts. Our members will continue to shop the world to meet the needs of our clientele and we think that as a critical partner we should not forget the impact of policy on the business community because they too are facing escalating costs and prices across the board. Thank you. Thank you, Brian. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. You've been listening to discussion and presentations on the issue of inflation, the vexing issue of inflation, which affects both producers and consumers across most economies. By way of history, inflation really rocked the world. First, in recent history in post-war Germany when hyperinflation demonstrated that this was an evil to be avoided at all costs. In fact, it shapes German macroeconomic policy to this day where they are probably the staunchest anti-inflationary policy drivers in the European Union to date. We've had other examples of hyperinflation closer to home in Venezuela, for example. Kenya has had issues as well and we do not want to have those sorts of economic results here. We want to have an economy in which prices and costs increase at a manageable, affordable rate. Just to reiterate the presentation by the Ministry of Finance, a generally acceptable rate of inflation is considered to be around 2%. Some inflation is important because it helps to grow economies. It is part of the economic model of most economies that you have an inflation rate which is a general increase in prices which is also a general increase in assets which is to say that your savings are growing, the value of your house is growing, the value of your land is growing and yes, other costs are also going on a general manageable trend. So inflation is something that's not intended that it should be eliminated. It's intended that it should be managed healthily in an economy where it helps to grow rather than frustrate on both objectives. I think this has been a valuable discussion. I think it is one that should continue both in practice and in subject matter. We are too isolated in this country and having conversations in silos thinking that each of us is right and each of us forms opinions based on our own perceptions and observations and sometimes without listening to the other parties in the discussion in the conversation. We're all entitled to our perspectives but they should be informed, they should be objected wherever possible and this is what discussions like this help to foster. We don't need to agree but we certainly need to converse. It would have been nice to have had a little bit more time to talk about some of the fundamental things that we can do to reposition our economy to be less vulnerable and to be less dependent on imported goods and services which is where in this particular instance a lot of our inflationary trends are coming from. Our inflation, the current inflationary trend as was explained has been exacerbated by global circumstances, Ukraine, the Middle East and post-COVID supply chain problems but they have sort of settled with us because our resilience to those price increases, our ability to counter those price increases which are coming from abroad has not been as strong as it should be. So if we had for example in the Eastern Caribbean a greater control of our monetary policy governments would have more levels to change but as it is we do not have active monetary policy so we're almost forced to deal with inflation from a purely fiscal point of view and there are limited tools in the hands of governments to do that but there are some fundamental things that we have pointed to in this discussion and I will just list them very briefly and preface that by reminding us that government is $1.8 billion annually, $1.6 billion annually in this very small economy. That is a huge chunk of resources and it is really important that the government see itself as a primary shaper as opposed to a primary taker of economic circumstances. That position I believe is one that is well worthy of discussion. How do we maximize the economic impact of the $1.8 billion that the government and I use the word advisedly takes out of the economy every year. How do we maximize? How do we optimize the impact of that money? Because it is coming, tax revenue comes from somebody else. It doesn't come from the government. It comes from somebody else. It comes from economic transactions in the economy. So if we're taking that money out of people's pockets, out of people's bottom line, what are we doing with it to shape the economy and move it in the direction that it is supposed to be moving which should be one I think of gross and investment and employment rather than a survival sort of mode and a temporary measure and a tinkering sort of mode. How do we reposition? How do we transform? I think this is the substantive discussion that needs to take place. And inflation needs to be seen as an impediment to a longer goal, to a long-term strategy of where we really, really want to be as a country. And therefore, when we address it, we will be looking at longer-term issues and this brings me to my closing point. So we have issues like border taxes. Do they contribute to inflationary trends? If the cost of a container increases as we saw on the chart from 4,000 US dollars to 14,000 US dollars, a substantial amount of that impact is actually government revenue. And that needs to be put on the table. So government's revenue calculated on cost insurance as a freight quadrupled in that single component of a container cost going up. There's nothing to do with the value, the intrinsic value of the goods in the container, but government revenue, which is part of that extraction of 1.8 billion dollars, is driven for no other reason, for no domestic reason than the fact that the cost of moving a container internationally has increased. Port charges we spoke about, we have a monopolistic arrangement at our port and any inefficiency there translates into a taxation on every single one of us in so far as it increases the cost of goods coming into our country. Energy, our energy policy, our green policy, these are things that I think long-term we need to be looking at. It has come up more than once. What are we doing about that? Can we have a discussion about it again? How do we reposition and transform so that we can reduce the impact of external energy costs on our development, on our consumption patterns? The productivity of labor, probably the most ticklish issue apart from price dodging, that we need to consider, are we producing the kinds of people who are going to create the kinds of efficiency and productivity that we need in our economy? Again, to be more reliant, to be more self-sufficient so that we're not importing inflation all the time from other economies. What do we produce for a day's labor? What do we produce? Because a day's labor affects every single one of us. Whether you're a carpenter, a mason, an economist, or a brain surgeon, what you can produce in 24 hours. These are V what other countries are producing in 24 hours has everything to do with what your cost structure is going to be and what your price on the shelf is going to be. And your international competitiveness affects everything. It affects your exports, your imports, and your growth. Efficiencies in the system, particularly in government, we mentioned that as well. This is an important review that needs to take place. Are we asking our producers to do things consistently? Record keeping, accountability, compliance, et cetera. And moving up the value chain, which I think was mentioned by Mr. Cox. If we don't move the conversation from survival and getting by, if we don't move that conversation from poverty alleviation to wealth creation, we're gonna be having this discussion over and over and over again. Are we positioning our economy for wealth, for prosperity? We've got to stop thinking of ourselves at the bottom of the food chain. We've got to move ourselves up market. Our tourism sector has done it quite successfully with room to grow, of course. But we have not gone into the mass tourism market and we've managed to have a Caribbean product which is generally suited to what we have to offer with room to grow, room for improvement. So what can we learn from our tourism sector that helps move other aspects of our economy up the food chain? So moving from primary production in agriculture which we have been talking about for ages and ages and ages and yes, I'm that old. To remember, what are we actually doing about it? And this comes back to the regional collaborations that we need to create in order to have the synergies across the region because we are small economies and we must combine to have effectiveness. Price sensitivity is one of the things that can be addressed by moving up the food chain so that our products are not so price sensitive and they can withstand fluctuations in the general price level. That means that we continue to be demanded, our product continues to be demanded irrespective of minor fluctuations in price levels globally. We've touched on fair competitive practice. I think this is something that needs to be further explored and the business of rates of interest by financial institutions very tangentially touched but something that is also very, very important. Consider for example that if you have high border taxes that make white goods which was mentioned, fridges, stoves, appliances, fairly basic things now, makes them so expensive that you have to use consumer credit to buy them, then you're increasing the cost of that basic appliance, a fridge, a stove, a washing machine. These are not luxuries anymore. If government policy is increasing the price of those things to a point where they have to be financed, then the price to the consumer is going to be 30% more than it should be on an annual basis. And these are some of the policies that we need to be looking at to see if we are driving our people upward or downward in terms of their wealth. And I think it is time to change the conversation from poverty alleviation, which tends to be a national mindset to actually wealth and growth and prosperity. And on that, ladies and gentlemen, I'm very happy to bring our discussion to be to a close and to thank once again both ministries of finance and commerce for initiating this exchange, this dialogue. I wish we had more time and to acknowledge the minister's presence for a minute. I thought she would not have been with us for the duration, but she has reappeared and it is wonderful that she's here with us to hear first hand some of the concerns from both the floor and the panel. Thank you very much. And I trust there's lunch. Is he a voter fan, sir, again? Is he a voter fan? Is he a voter fan? Yes. Well, I've closed the panel. Okay. I've closed the entire session. So we can step out. No. So, our vote of science will now be given by Mrs. Wendy Frederick, Director of Consumer Affairs, over to you. Pleasant good morning to all. Afternoon. Oh, afternoon. Oh my goodness. Please allow me to adopt the protocol already established. I must say we had some interesting discussions. We almost had to modify. And it's very interesting. And when you look at our mission to facilitate together with the private sector, the establishment of a dynamic business environment which anticipates changes in well circumstances while strengthening and enhancing the productive capacities and competitiveness of industry and commerce, encouraging good business practices and consumer interests. So we see the Ministry of Commerce where we have to balance business and consumer interests, right? So I want to say thank you to the Prime Minister, the Honorable Philip J. Pierre and the Government of St. Lucia for providing the opportunity to have this discussion in such a forum and for continually ensuring consumer education and welfare. I would like to particularly thank our Minister, the Minister of Commerce, the Honorable Emma Hippolyte for her support as always. And as Thomas Jefferson, I believe, who said, the purpose of government is to enable the people of a nation to live in safety and happiness. Government exists for the interests of the governed and not the governors. I like this statement. To our Permanent Secretary, Mr. Sophia Alfie Henry, for leading the charge, directing and ensuring that everything was executed with excellence as usual. It is indeed a privilege to propose a vote of thanks and acknowledge the contribution of those who worked hard and participated to make this timely and necessary initiative possible. This event could not have happened overnight for sure. And the wheels started moving weeks ago with much research and planning. And we have been fortunate to have had the support and collaboration of the dedicated staff of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce, Ms. Alfie and her team who are well-versed in the area of expertise. I'd like to say thank you for a detailed and thorough presentation. To Dr. Samuel, thank you for the great insight, of course, on the micro-perspective and providing a clearer understanding. I'm sure we're all more enlightened after these presentations. And to our in-house panelists, of course, Dr. Tekla Fit Lewis, Ms. Lewis, Mr. Brian Louisi and Ms. Jason King and the Assistant Secretary General, Mr. Joseph Cox, attending virtually. I would like to thank you immensely for your invaluable contribution and informative discussions. Indeed, we have done it much from their expertise. Right, we agree to that. Let's look at them together. Thank you to our moderator, Dr. Adrian Oje, for your guidance and, of course, doing it with your usual charisma. That's one. I would like to, of course, thank the staff of the Ministry of Commerce for organizing, coordinating, and aiding in publicizing this event. I would like to particularly thank the staff of the Consumer Affairs Department for their usual support. I don't believe the word or words have been formed that allow me to attribute them the praise that is due to them as it relates to their participation and willingness to always complete tasks beyond their comfort zones. And thanks to the media, of course, and technicians for the live broadcast and all your assistance. I would like to especially thank Mr. Glenn Simon in the back, the communication specialist attached to the National Productivity Council, NCPC, for unselfishly lending his expertise. And his, of course, that was done on short notice. And I want to thank his director, Mrs. Lisa Montuth, for loaning him to us. Let's put our hands together for Glenn. To all participants, the general public, both in-house. Oh, yes, I did. The Ministry of Commerce, Janine. Of course, Janine, thank you, our information officer for working so hard. Yes, I'm putting all of this together. Thank you. And of course, to all our participants, the public, both in-house and virtually, thank you for joining us and for your general contributions. Thank you all here for being with us today. And I pray that you have a wonderful day ahead and I would like to say a very merry Christmas and a happy new year. Thank you. Oh, and we have refreshments. We know it's lunchtime, it's one o'clock, but we have refreshments in the back so less indulge in it. Enjoy.