 Joe Biden is running a great campaign with Donald Trump royally screwing up the fight against coronavirus. The reassuring normality of Joe Biden appears to many people a more attractive proposition than Hillary Clinton four years ago. Moreover, in a time of national crisis, unlike in 2016, the country might really be seeking someone who seems to be an experienced, safe pair of hands, someone who perhaps was Vice President in an era when government seemed to be somewhat competent. Indeed, according to the polling site, 538, Biden is now up by eight percentage points in the average of national polls. Most importantly, because obviously you can win the popular vote and still lose the presidency. He has an advantage of five points or more in several key battleground states, including Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all states that Clinton lost. So on one level, it's all looking good. There is a problem, though, and the problem is that there are two Biden campaigns. So the Biden campaign that's doing quite well is the one where he doesn't speak and his operatives do the talking via campaign videos, by official announcements, by adverts. And the other campaign is where Biden has to actually go out onto television and speak for himself in his own voice without prompts and where it's not possible to do a second take because he's live on TV. We're going to look at the two Bidens now. We're going to start with the Biden that seems to be doing pretty well, the Biden, which I think is, I suppose, down to the fact that his polling is quite good at the moment. We're going to look at a couple of campaign ads. This one here is being targeted at older voters. I think it's very effective. Roger and I decided that we wanted to move to the villages. We were ready to retire. We were both 60. He was in the military. I had the business for 10 years. My husband and I are both concerned about the virus and catching it. I know other people have things a lot worse, but we feel trapped here because we can't go to be with the ones that we love. My husband and I have been gifted with two beautiful grandchildren. We try to see them as often as possible and it's been six months and it's way too long. And while I don't blame Donald Trump for the virus, I blame him for his lack of action. And because of that, we're sitting here zooming or FaceTiming with our grandchildren instead of hugging and kissing them. And that's hard. Joe Biden knows that every moment is precious. I trust Joe Biden to get this virus under control. I'm Joe Biden and I approve this message. Now, to me, that's a super effective advert. You're appealing to people who the Democrats often have difficulty with and an incredibly important voting bloc, older voters, especially older white voters, is who the Democrats struggle with, who put Donald Trump into power. And unlike the Hillary Clinton campaign, they're not really focusing on Donald Trump or the offensive things he says. They're focusing on an issue that genuinely matters to people, which is coronavirus, the fact that it is divided families and the fact that Donald Trump has been completely incompetent at dealing with it. I mean, it's almost sympathetic to Donald Trump in a way, so we don't blame him for coronavirus. We just blame him for not responding quickly enough to it. It seems to be almost downplaying the culture war and saying, look, you don't have to despise that we're not telling you he's the worst person in the world. We're just saying he's not particularly effective and you're putting Joe Biden up there loads with a face mask. You know, obviously, he is someone who is trying to deal with the coronavirus crisis against Donald Trump, who basically refuses to. Let's go to another video. So this, again, I thought was effective, less straightforward than the last one, kind of cheesy, but interesting, nonetheless. I like to drive. I used to think I was a pretty good driver. I didn't get a chance to flat-shift in the second I was afraid I'd go through those guys. Tomorrow morning, we're talking about cars and what car you'd like to see come back. I love this car. Nothing but incredible memories. Every time I get in, I think of my dad and Bo. God can my dad drive a car. The thing I like most is the setup right here and you feel like you're in complete control. This is just bold. Now, you're standing in front here. This is iconic industry. How can American-made vehicles no longer be out there? I believe that we can own the 21st century market again by moving to electric vehicles. And by the way, they tell me, and I'm looking forward if it's true to driving one, that they're making electric Corvette and go 200 miles an hour. You think I'm kidding? I'm not kidding. So I'm excited about it. Again, obviously, shared on Twitter, everyone was like, you know, Twitter is a young demographic. Everyone was like, this is a completely stupid advert. It's cheesy. It's nonsense. But if you put yourself in older voter shoes, potentially someone who might have voted for Donald Trump. So someone who loves American cars, who loves the familiarity of someone who sort of says, yeah, America, you know, is the kind of all American image, right? So I think it's supposed to prove that he can still drive. Because that was my main worry was, you know, you sort of look at it, you're like, is he okay to drive? But, you know, I think he's film driving in it. So presumably his eyes are good enough to retain a license. What did you make of it, Aaron? Well, there are some bad drivers out there. Not necessarily a test of motor coordination, no pun intended. I thought it was great. I thought they were both amazing adverts. But I think there's a lesson to be learned there for the radical left as well, actually. You know, you don't always need to write where your heart and your sleeve and say, we're going to change everything. We're going to, you know, solve all these, you need to do that too. Bernie Sanders, Jeremy Corbyn, you need to do that too. But there also needs to be a strategy for dampening down the attack lines of your opponent, which not the politician really ever addressed. And I can't recall. I can remember adverts with Jeremy Corbyn where he was trying to address multiple age demographics and actually share lows in common, which obviously they do. You have a shared economic interest in a bunch of ways. Or, you know, you need social care, just like they need, you know, free university tuition. But there was never a leaning in specifically to an older demographic. And I thought the second one in particular does that super, super well. Because you can just, it's not even for people that are meant to vote for Joe Biden. I think that is about neutralizing the worst attack line from Donald Trump. That is address purely at Trump, hardcore Trump voters. They watch that and they go, you know, he's not that bad. And, you know, what on the day they might just not turn out to vote. That's interesting. I think it's just about sort of dampening down the kind of feverish, the feverishness against, and it's not just against radical left politicians. It wasn't just Sanders and Corbyn. We saw the exact same thing with Hillary Clinton in 2000 and 2016. And I think it's about sort of dampening down that feverishness, it's a normal person. But also, you know, the very people who are being set up to hate in the most, they're the target here. I don't think it's actually Democrat call Biden voters. I think they're both brilliant adverts. The climate car angle is also interesting, right? Because obviously the Democrats are worried that climate change is going to be a weakness for them because Americans love climate change. And, you know, they've at least made some indication that they might try and challenge it even though, you know, I doubt Biden presidency is going to be particularly impressive on climate. But to make it all about we can lead on cars again. I think it's probably the right angle to go if you want to have some sort of climate-friendly politics in the United States and not get trashed. The big challenge for the left is, you know, we have to win over boomers. We do. You know, it's not, people are, well, the electorate of tomorrow, I want sex-wise it. That's great. Fantastic. Labour and the Democrats should not throw that away, right? Which I think actually right now Labour look like they may be doing. It's not, you know, it's not a done deal. But that's not enough right now to win. And one more thing. You know, in 2017, Labour won a huge number of votes. I think they increased their number of votes. But you can correct me for one. I think three and a half million, three million. The share of the vote went up 10%. But although many, many people wanted to vote for Labour, wanted to vote for Jeremy Corbyn, you know, many, many people also wanted to vote for anybody but Jeremy Corbyn. And that's why, you know, we have to remember Theresa May got 42% in 2017. Primarily, I think because she was, you know, promising to deliver a hard Brexit, but also because there were many people in that particular election, the people that wanted to vote for Jeremy Corbyn, I think outweighed the people who were like, anybody but Corbyn can win. We didn't see that in 2019. No, that's a super good point, actually. People don't mention that because it's not just saying, we needed people, you need to reassure people who aren't going to vote Labour anyway because then they might not vote Conservative, right? Exactly. They might just not turn out. They go, OK, well, if he wins. Well, I think that's what Biden's trying to do. OK, if Biden wins, it's not the end of the world. Whereas Hillary Clinton, that evil woman cannot win. You know, I think they've really defanged that quite well. I certainly think he's going to win necessarily, but I think it's an important observation. Let's look at the other side of the Joe Biden campaign, the less successful one. And unfortunately, this is an unavoidable part of the Joe Biden campaign because it's the part that involves Joe Biden speaking live off the cuff and without his operatives able to sort of cut and chop it and take numerous takes if he says the wrong thing. We've got three clips for you. The first is this is Biden speaking on Wednesday. It's caused some controversy, rightly, I think, in the United States. Let's take a look. Yes. And by the way, what you all know, but most people don't know, unlike the African-American community with notable exceptions, the Latino community is an incredibly diverse community with incredibly different attitudes about different things. So unlike the African-American community, the Latino community is a diverse community with different attitudes about different things. Obviously, the implication there being that the African-American community has the same attitudes about all of the things. Let's look at, before I go to Aaron, another video where he tries to clarify that comment. So it's a video called Later in That Day where he tries to expand on this point to make it sound less offensive, I suppose. We can build a new administration that reflects the full diversity of our nation and the full diversity of Latino communities. Now, what I mean, full diversity, unlike the African-American community and many other communities, you're from everywhere. From Europe, from the tip of South America, all the way to our border in Mexico and in the Caribbean. And different backgrounds, different ethnicities, but all Latinos. You can see the point he's trying to make. He's saying, look, I wasn't saying that black people all think the same, but if you're looking at sort of voting patterns, then in America, Cubans vote in a very different way to how Mexicans vote or Puerto Ricans vote. And so you're looking at a set of people with very different political values. Again, I just don't think that's particularly... There are so many different political values within the African-American community. You could see that in the Democratic primaries, younger people lining up behind Bernie Sanders, older people lining up behind Joe Biden. But what was also weird about that is when he was making this point about Latinos being from various different countries, he didn't just say, you know, Latin American countries in the Caribbean, he always said Europe. And to me, either that means he thinks, I suppose, Spanish people are Latino or Italians, I suppose, Latin. I don't know, who does he think is Latino from Europe? Or is he talking about people's origins? So obviously, people or many Latin Americans historically have some European origin in them, Italian, Spanish, whatever. But then if that's the point he's making, you can say exactly the same thing about African-Americans. Africa as a continent is just as diverse as Europe as a continent. So either he's confused about what Latino means or he thinks that ultimately African-Americans all originate in exactly the same place or somewhere with far less diversity than Europe. It just seemed bizarre to me. I'm going to be a bit more charitable. I think in terms of Spanish first and second speakers, it is a broader mix. And obviously, they're newer arrivals to the United States than most African-Americans. Of course, there are many African-Americans who might be first to second generation. Barack Obama, for instance, his father was from Kenya. But it's generally speaking a more settled population historically over the last several hundred years. But what I thought, and I got it completely wrong, what I thought he originally was talking about and that second video where he's clarifying his point wasn't that. I thought he was just talking about voting patterns, like you said. That's what I thought he meant, which is true. African-Americans vote en masse for Democrats. And Latinos generally vote Democrat to, I think, in the last section about 65%. But like you say, Cubans actually tend to go Republican. And in Florida, which is a swing state, it's a really important bell of the state, there's lots of Cubans. So that's what I thought he meant. They're sort of in terms of their voting patterns and more heterogeneous. But of course, with Joe's cognitive decline, he sort of put it in a poor way. But that's not what he meant anyway, so it doesn't matter. Let's look at speaking of cognitive decline. Let's look at another clip, which I think actually shows what's going to be a bigger problem for Joe Biden. Have you taken a cognitive test? No, I haven't taken a test. Why the hell would I take a test? Come on, man. That's like saying you, before you got in this program, if you're taking a test where you're taking cocaine or not, what do you think, huh? What do you say to President Trump, who brags about his test and makes your mental state an issue for voters? Well, if he can't figure out the difference between an elephant and a lion, I don't know what the hell he's talking about. Did you watch that? Look, come on, man. I know you're trying to goad me, but I mean, I'm so forward to looking to have an opportunity to sit with the president or stand with the president in debates. There are going to be plenty of time. And by the way, as I joke with him, you know, I shouldn't say it. I'm going to say something I probably shouldn't say. Anyway, I am very willing to let the American public judge my physical mental fitness, my physical as well as my mental fitness. That's terrible, man. It's really bad, isn't it? And you're also going to see, because do you remember there was a period where everyone was joking about Donald Trump because he had that really off-the-wall interview where he was saying, and then they asked me to do the five, remember the five things in order, and then you have to do it at the end of the interview. What was it like, man, woman, dog? I can't remember what the five things were. They give you five things at the start of the test, and then you have to repeat them at the end of the test. And in the same order, your extra points is the way that Donald Trump said it. It's a test to see if you've got dementia or not. So the idea that you've got a politician bragging that they haven't got dementia seems like a very low bar. But because of the context it's in, where I think probably most people think that Biden would fail it, right? Because even in answering that question, he couldn't finish sentences. So he says, forward-looking, instead of looking forward. And then he's fluffing all of these words, talking about mental fitness. And, you know, watching that, you do think, oh, the reason he doesn't want to take the test and the reason why he's really awkward laughing and giving these really awkward responses about, you're being on cocaine. It's sort of like, whoa, calm down. You're obviously incredibly stressed about the possibility that you would be made to take a test about cognitive decline. And the thing I'm really worried about, the thing I think could be like a game changer in this election. And obviously, you know, I don't want a game changer in this election. I don't think Biden is particularly impressive, but I don't want four years of Donald Trump for the world's safety. Would be if at the start, the host shows both of them like a list of five words. And then at the end of the debate gets them to read out the five words. And I feel like, you know, Biden would be so stressed about remembering the five words in the right order that he'd probably fluff up the whole of the rest of the debate, then get it wrong. Trump will get it right, be really proud of himself. And then everyone will be like, Trump won the debate because he's in an earlier stage of cognitive decline. Then Joe Biden. It's the risk though, right? Because obviously he's neutralized all of the attack lines that were thrown at Hillary Clinton quite effectively. He's sort of downplaying the idea that this is a cultural struggle between two different Americas, the good America versus he's sort of saying, look, I'm just, I'm an ordinary inclusive guy and I'm just going to be a bit more competent than the last guy. You know, you don't have to feel like voting for me or Trump determines your, you know, worthiness as a person. You know, this is quite a simple downplayed choice. I'm the competent guy. You can relate to me. It's fine. That was what they've learned from Hillary Clinton, but they've also, as happens in politics, a new problem has emerged, which they don't seem like they've planned for, which is... Is it new? His biggest weakness. Is it new? I mean, do you remember Hillary when she responds to that bubble tea? I mean, that was really weird in 2016. No, but she could finish sentences. I think, and this is again, people who might accuse people of ageism. I think actually a tiny proportion of the population is capable of doing top level politics. Imagine for four years, five years, five hours sleep a night, incredibly anxious, you know, big decisions on you, very stressful. You've got legacy media. You've got new media. It's also just a politically difficult time, right? Since 2008, the challenges are really momentous. I think most people of most ages would struggle to engage in frontline politics, which is why I think Jeremy Corbyn in many ways... We saw that with Theresa May, by the way. Theresa May was a shell of a person at the end of her premiership, right? Understandably, by the way, I think 99% of people would have been. I think one of the things that people have to respect and admire with Jeremy Corbyn is, you know, he was actually quite resilient. He looked quite healthy and quite happy. It was quite strange when you did get these attack lines or Corbyn's had a stroke and so on. Okay, well, he looks incredible. He sounds great for his age, whatever. But I do think it's important to say, well, look, if you think a 40 or 50-year-old is going to struggle in that context, that demanding professional context, you're stretching your mind and body to the very limit, you know, somebody in their mid-70s is really going to struggle. That's not an indictment on Joe Biden or Donald Trump, necessarily, or Nancy Pelosi who's 80. If somebody who's 30, 40, 50, is going to struggle under those conditions, somebody of that age is naturally, you know, going to have periods like Joe Biden where they don't make much sense, right? Or Donald Trump is going to have an interview where, you know, he has maybe the, he has maybe the sort of reading age of like a 14 or 13-year-old, maybe younger. Right? I mean, some of that's intentional. I don't think all of it is, though. So that's a really important point to make. You know, we are saying we're an aging society. We're seeing older legislators, older politicians, but they're under intense pressure. It's not easy. And we've been here before, by the way. You know, Ronald Reagan, in his second term, we now know this, in his second term, in the final years of the Cold War, Ronald Reagan had Alzheimer's. He was getting dementia. His factual recall was going. He was often not making much sense. And these are people who have, who have a literal life and death power over millions of other people. So, you know, I think it's to be taken very, very seriously. They can sign executive orders that can change people's lives at the flick of a switch. I don't think it should be taken lightly that both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, you know, aren't necessarily up to the job cognitively. That's not an ableist comment. It's not an ageist comment. You know, it's a really serious point, because like I said, we've been here before. You don't want somebody who is not physically and mentally up to the job in such an important role.