 So Mexico, I think Mexico is important and it's interesting what's going on in Mexico and I think we don't really have a good sense of what's going on in Mexico partially because we're so engaged in our own domestic politics and I think Donald Trump has so skewed the discussion about Mexico and about immigration that we don't really have a chance to observe and to read about and to really think about what's actually going on in Mexico. What's going on in Mexico is super, super scary. Not because of Donald Trump, not because although Donald Trump I think had a big part in causing this scary scenario, but because of what the future might hold in terms of Mexico. As you'll see in a minute maybe we'll end up needing a wall after all. What's going on in Mexico is that they basically elected a Hugo Chavez type person to lead the country. So they've elected a radical leftist, a self-avowed socialist, but really in the model of a Chavez and the model of a real authoritarian and a real populist authoritarian. So not as much of a dogmatic socialist, a committed socialist or particular ideology, but much more of a populist kind of socialist who is going to really try to control that economy, to redistribute vast amounts of its wealth, to regulate it, to death and potentially to nationalize aspects of it. I mean the oil company in Mexico is already nationalized, but there was a movement towards privatization in Mexico and that movement is going to be reversed if anything there is a tendency now towards nationalization. He has a real demagogue. He has all those characteristics of a Chavez. He comes out with his monologues every morning to set the agenda for the media and for everybody else. Of course he has the intellectuals falling over themselves in worshiping him. So often the case all over the world, the intellectuals are very, very leftists and that is the case as well in Mexico. He is establishing his own, if you will, internal security forces that are loyal to him, like the National Guard, exactly like Chavez did, kind of almost a militia that is beyond the protection of, beyond the rule of law to some extent. He is also getting the generals, just like Chavez did, very much involved in the economy so that the military has strong economic incentives to sustain the regime. So anything that's nationalized, anything that is brought into the realm of government, a piece of it will be given to the generals and to military commanders to cement their loyalty. There is a real sense that he is going to try to move Mexico in the direction that Chavez moves Venezuela and now Maduro. And it's interesting how Maduro is still surviving and we will talk about that in a little while because I don't think anybody expected him to survive. It looked a couple of weeks ago like he was finished and yet somehow he is still there which just shows you the power and the strength of these populist socialist regimes and how they have a hold because they have a hold in the military because they provided the military incentives but they also have a hold on large segments of the population that don't want to see them go and as a consequence the rebellion against Maduro is just not large enough to really topple him. Not yet anyway we'll see as the days progress. Also what's going on in Mexico is interesting because it shows the continued influence of maybe the most evil and most destructive regime in this part of the world, in the Western Hemisphere, in the Americas and that is the Cuban regime. The Cuban regime and I think the Cuban regime continues to sustain itself largely because of Obama and Obama's sanction to Cuba, Obama's visit to Cuba, Obama's and the fact that Europe has sanctioned Cuba and tourism is up and I won't go to Cuba to a large extent because I will not sanction that regime and not give them the foreign exchange and the money to keep doing what they're doing but Cuba is very, very influential in Venezuela. It is the power behind the power. It is the power behind Maduro. It is Cuban military officials. It's Cuban political operatives that are in the field in Venezuela making sure that the soldiers don't defect, making sure that everything and these are not conspiracy theories. This is just fact. Cuba used to benefit enormously for Venezuela when Venezuela had a lot of money from oil but Venezuela has always been a regime, the only regime really on a large scale that has supported Cuba. The only other place in Latin America was Bolivia and the Cubans have a significant presence in Bolivia as well. They also used to have a significant presence in Brazil. There were 3,000 Cuban doctors, doctors, not real doctors but some doctors and a lot of military police and political operatives that were in Brazil during the leftist regimes of Lula and Rossoff and since Bolsonaro came to Paris, kicked the 3,000 out and it turns out that all 3,000 have gone to Mexico. So Mexico under Obado, the new president of Mexico has a very strong Cuban presence and this strong Cuban presence is only reinforcing this move towards a Venezuela like populist dictatorship or populist authoritarianism and a tilt towards socialism, a significant tilt towards socialism in the Mexican economy and we'll get to that because Mexico is not in Venezuela so this is far more disastrous and far more scary but also going to be far more difficult for them to actually implement but you see Cuba is behind much of this and Cuba is hoping to now start getting some revenue from Mexico because of course Mexico has a still functioning oil industry as compared to Venezuela and the Cuban and the Mexican president has promised Cuba significant financial resources in exchange for their help in sustaining his regime in keeping it going so you can see how the Commies are very good, very good at asserting and inserting themselves into the inter-friendly regimes and making sure that those regimes are successful and making sure that those regimes remain loyal and also making it very, very difficult just like in Cuba we haven't seen a revolution we haven't really seen one yet in Venezuela and we're unlikely I think to see one in Mexico now Mexico, it's going to be interesting because Mexico is a large, over 100 million people, 120 million people large country, a very diversified economy so it's not like Venezuela that had basically its wealth coming from oil Mexico has oil but primarily the source of wealth from Mexico is manufacturing and trade Mexico is an important hub in a globalized trading world now granted that globalization is already threatened by Donald Trump and his tariffs and anti-trade rhetoric nationalism, rise of nationalism and just a general suspicion of trade but the Mexican economy thrives on manufacturing and trade importation, it inputs a lot of stuff from China takes that stuff and assembles it into stuff that can then be imported into the United States it assembles things from American companies and brought directly into the United States it is a trading hub with Europe it is a country whose wealth over the last 20 years has really been built on the idea of low tariffs and an expanded international trade now, NAFTA is safe with the new arrangement that Trump has which I don't think he'll get through Congress but Trump has given up on attacking NAFTA and doing away with NAFTA NAFTA 2.0 is not NAFTA 2.0, it's NAFTA 1.1 it's minor revisions to the existing NAFTA so at least Mexico is safe in the sense that NAFTA is still there and NAFTA is a huge boost to its economy just like NAFTA is a huge massive boost to the U.S. economy trade after all is, shockingly, win-win but the new president, Obador, is definitely anti-trade so it's other trade policies whether it's with Asia, whether it's with Europe whether it's other Latin American countries are really at risk a really, really at risk so, you know, you could see and another thing about Mexico that's really, really important Mexico economy has done very well over the last 20 years over the last 20 years indeed, one of the reasons illegal immigration is way, way down and it is factually way, way down since really 2000 and Mexican illegal immigration as compared to illegal immigration from other central Latin American countries but Mexican illegal immigration is dramatically down since the year 2000 and I think it's something like 10% of what it was in 2000 you know, again, this is the kind of BS President Trump talks about which is, you know, about illegal immigration from Mexico it just doesn't exist or it's dramatically smaller than it used to be and the reason for that, the main reason for that is over the last 20 years the Mexican economy has done well that is the Mexican economy is the private sector has created jobs there was a lot of liberalization nowhere near as much nowhere near as much that is needed nowhere as dramatic as it should be but enough to really create some really economic dynamism in Mexico and after helped of course and trade with the rest of the world to help but also liberalization and actually in the last administration in Mexico there was a change to the constitution to actually bring private enterprise into the oil industry and to bring for the first time in at least 100 years I think back into Mexico found investment into the oil industry so Mexico was on the rise Mexico from economic perspective was doing great another example of white people don't vote their pocketbook people vote all kinds of other things but not their pocketbook if Mexicans have voted their pocketbook they would have never voted in Obrador they would have kept kind of the slightly right of center presidents that have that we have seen a string of over the last 20 years they would have kept those coming they would have done enormous good for the Mexican economy and indeed so jobs were plentiful people don't like necessarily to emigrate out particularly when a country is generally free and when jobs are plentiful and the standard of living is going up people don't leave, people don't risk the risk of illegally emigrating into the United States if life is decent where they are so the whole notion of of Mexican illegal immigration is nonsensical over the last 30 years over the last 20 years it just hasn't really existed as any kind of force and indeed it's been negative illegal immigration from Mexico since the Great Recession since 2007 has been negative that is more Mexicans who are here illegally have gone back to Mexico then have emigrated in from Mexico so generally the whole hysteria over immigration has been false however however and this is the problem if Obado is successful in his economic policies what you'll see is the Mexican economy tanking and if the Mexican economy tanks then you will see a significant and it might not even have to tank to the extent to the extent that tanks in Venezuela to see to see unemployment go up and if unemployment in Mexico goes up if the Mexican economy stops producing jobs at the rate it has produced for the last 20 years then you will start seeing a rise in people from Mexico trying to enter the United States and in numbers far, far greater than what we've seen so far which will only fuel the populist fearmongering of Donald Trump or whoever follows him as the next populist president of the United States and I think this is the irony here it is Trump I think that ultimately made Obado possible that is I think that what led Mexicans to vote for socialist, populist, nationalist is the anti-Hispanic, anti-Mexican vile language of Donald Trump it was the unbelievable anti-Mexican coming out of the US culminating with the idea of building a wall and the Mexico paying for the wall which of course turned out to be one more big unbelievable lie that fueled Mexican nationalism, that fueled Mexican populism, that fueled Mexican anti-Americanism and they voted not so much not so much for a not so much for a what do you call it a socialist president as they did vote for populist, nationalist anti-American president who they believed would be much better standing up against against Donald Trump and so Trump brought Obrador to power Obrador is actually going to tank the Mexican economy which is actually going to raise and potentially to massive levels the number of people trying to cross the border illegally from Mexico into the United States which will then increase the power of populists like Trump who want to build walls and who want to fear manga and scare everybody about immigration