 Good day, fellow investors. Welcome to the weekly stock market news where we share interesting fundamental news about what's going on. Today we'll discuss oil and how the demand and supply fluctuates. Norilsk and Nickel, Uranium and Cameco and we'll discuss two new interesting recession indicators instability in Europe and finalize by answering the question will the stock market continue to go up. Immediately start with US oil production and you can see how in 2016 when oil prices were low it declined significantly and now it increased again and is back to 2015 levels that created the drop in oil prices. Thus we have now a situation with oil that if prices increase production increases so we can expect a lot of volatility. I would expect prices to drop again even below 40 when there is again an oil glut which will be volatile. Don't expect stability in oil price. On top of everything just look at the long-term projections from US production. It is about to double or even more in the next seven years. However oil demand is expected to grow very very slowly and this analysis comes from Exxon which is strongly based in favor of oil and they see very very slow demand growth. If you look at Exxon's global transportation energy mix in their outlook for 2040 you can see that electricity in transportation is practically unused a little bit on other and their views of what will happen to the car market is that electric vehicles will maybe gain a few percentage points of market share in the next 22 years. Exxon okay they look they have to protect their own business however with seeing what's going on with China with Germany with the dropping cost of batteries I would stay away from oil because if just that market share Exxon's predicted market share from now what is 2-3% goes to 10-20% with the production oil with the investments we will see oil as 10-20 40 per barrel in the long term. So take advantage of the swings in oil prices but don't invest on the long term don't bet on those nice fat dividends because everything will change very fastly is changing extremely fastly and therefore I would be aware of investing in old-fashioned businesses especially oil. This is very interesting nickel prices have spiked in July and August and then dropped at the same speed however Norilsk stock price continues to rise this is because Norilsk is diversified and copper prices and palladium prices continue to rise that's good about having a diversified miner that can work with these ups and downs in the industry however long term nickel prices are expected to grow and you can see here two forecasts so there is plenty plenty more upside in Norilsk very good fundamental basis to invest in a trend in a company and we have also discussed how nickel is used in the battery for electric vehicles this was very interesting scotsia downgraded cameco on weak uranium outlook everybody knows uranium is weak outlook is very weak and then in one day cameco dropped 6% and we can see how again it is very very cheap in comparison to past prices it could be a very good idea now to look again at cameco when it's below 10 don't look at it when it's at 12 like it was at the beginning of the year of or 11 it's very volatile the there is weakness in the uranium sector so take advantage of that volatility in order to position yourself by when there is pessimism not optimism but two recession indicators this is the economic growth in the world's largest 45 economies as you can see we are now in 2017 2018 is the same situation as it was in 2006 and 2007 all economies are growing and it led to the next inflation so when all economies are growing even if a few falter there is potential recession and a slowdown globally so when everything is good the likelihood of a recession is higher than when things are bad it is also funny that the industrial sentiment in europe is exactly where it was in 2007 and 2011 just before the two previous recession in europe what's also interesting related to europe the current turmoil surrounding barcelona catalonia independence in spain has really increased the risk of the country perceived risks from the market and increased interest rates now okay these are minor increases but if the troubles persist in any european country that can quickly have a very negative effect on that country and spill over across europe because pain's government depth to gdp ratio is 100 percent portugal 140 percent italy 142 so imagine what just a crisis political crisis in one of those countries and all speak about independence leaving the euro blah blah blah could mean for europe high risk situation even if it doesn't seem like that now to conclude this news with answering the question will the stock market continue to go up this is a very interesting chart the bank of japan owns 60 percent of all japanese ETFs so the bank of japan japan owns bonds stocks everything they can own they have printed so much money they have bought so much assets that the japanese ETF market and its spills over all around the world is completely distorted so if they continue buying the stock market all around the world will go up the same as what's going on in europe what's very interesting the number of ipos is going down could this be because there is no business to develop there is so much competition and you cannot enter the market anymore it doesn't pay so people prefer to invest in stocks buybacks instead of investing in new companies because it's better to buy the sap 500 than to invest in a risky ipo this is not good because this signals that something is wrong in the market however as long as the monthly mutual fund and exchange trade fund flows are positive stocks will continue to go up now the flows have shifted a little bit from us equity which is still positive this means that the sap 500 will continue to grow as long as pension funds have money and as long as there is liquidity everything will grow global equity is also growing catching up with us equity so you might want to catch that trend in global equities and we have seen a lot of stocks especially chinese explode fixed income there is money so everything is also growing despite the low interest rates the fear and greed indicator is at maximum levels everybody thinks stop prices will just continue to go up and it's extremely greedy so if you want to listen to buffet and he's saying be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy what's buffet doing he has 100 billion in cash and has been piling up that cash because he's struggling to find worthwhile deals so he's not buying he's waiting and he can wait for eternity because he's not in a rush he is sitting on 100 billion dollars the stock market if things stay as they are will continue to go up the Fed is just cosmetically increasing interest rates ECB is doing nothing bank of japan just continue with what they are doing we can expect the trends to stay as they are for now for the next three six months a year to who knows the market is distorted by the buying so don't fight the trend don't short the market those things because it's very expensive and you might lose because it's not smart to find the trend as soon as I see something changing something that might change the fund flows and that might turn the stock market into negative territory that would then start a downward spiral I will try to notify you immediately so that you can prepare accordingly for now everything looks very very stable extremely risky extremely dangerous so position yourself accordingly but for now it looks stable so there is time we'll see thank you for watching consider subscribing we do weekly news we analyze stocks we analyze sectors we analyze macroeconomic environments and we try to make the highest profits with the lowest risk I'll see you in the next video