 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The TFNN Bull Bear Training Hour. Every training day, live at 10 a.m. Eastern. Call now toll-free at 877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. The TFNN Bull Bear Training Hour. Now, Tom and Tommy O'Brien. Welcome folks, appreciate you growl and a problem with us out here. We have the Dow Industries up 122, Nasdaq up 23, S&P's up 11, Gold, Gold Flat 15.36 an ounce. You can still rub 16 cents, $18.33 an ounce. Light Sweet Crude off 30 cents, $56.42 a barrel. Notes and bonds, bottom line you get the 10-year flat, $130.30, 30-year down four at $165.30. Those babies folks just refused to back down. They were back down slightly this morning, had tremendously lighter volume, they rejected lower price yesterday. And Kingdollar, Kingdollar is going to be the big deal out here today. It's down 65 ticks, $98.390. Now, Kingdollar was going for that high of $98.770. Contracting volume in a huge way in the way up, bottom line is that we'll see if we get a failure on price and volume out here. The year is at 110, the yen is at 106.12, and the pound is out here at 122. And it's a TGIF and it's a happy Labor Day. Got to love it man, three-day weekend, hopefully Florida. We're in Florida man, staying in the updates, stay safe out there. Looks like it's going to be quite a little storm. It's barreling in, it's barreling in. And I was listening to the archive during 8 o'clock of your afternoon show yesterday, and I heard it as well saying it's really remarkable man. First storm in like 14 years to barrel into that Atlantic coast. And I said I really want to see how they classify that because it is. It doesn't make sense. It doesn't make sense because we know that. Because we heard of so many. And we know that that coast has dealt with, whether it's the peripheral of the storms coming into whatever. But I guess it's going to be the first one where it really makes direct landfall. But remarkable, that long. And hopefully we'll see in a little days to come to see where it hits. Of course it's turning south. So if it turned north it would get up the coast, but it's turning south. And we'll see Tuesday morning man, we may not be here. We'll be here, but we may not be on the air. We'll see what happens. Let's go take a look at that platinum market. So platinum folks has caught a bid here. It's about time, that's the other side of it. You can see three days we just went from a, what's that? 8.67 to 9.39. So this is a real bid man. It just ripped apart. It's a swing high going back five months. We take this, actually let me put this up, put this on a continuous. Okay, PL1, PL1. Yeah. This is impressive. Quite a move, three days. And if we take this, now let's put it on a weekly and see what we get. Okay, this is good. So you launched 9.05. So if we just take a price projection, take a top of that consolidation, 9.05. I won't take the very low, I'll take somewhere around here. 7.60 man, that's pretty good. You're talking 140 bucks, right? So 9.07, that's 1,045. What is that up there? 1,022. This thing's going to 1,022. That's, well, it's about time. The bottom line is that compared to gold, this thing has been the biggest dog in the world. And it's hard to comprehend that this had a high in 2008 of 23, was that 23.08? Yep. I mean, pretty well. Crazy, right? I agree. You know, so now we'll see how this shakes out, because if we take this, watch this, this could get interesting. Oh, this is good. So on a long basis, folks, okay, this is a decisive break. That would be saying that, you know, on a long-term basis, you go to 1600. It's just an eight-year trend. Yeah. I know, exactly. Broken, all right? Yes, is it. You know, that's how you want to break a trend. Sure. You know, you want that wide-price spread. When there's a race to zero percent, it yields, man. All those metals, of course, catching a bit, man. No. Silver is just crazy. Yep. Let's pull up that silver back up. I saw the price of silver yesterday, and I had to do a double take, because I somehow just maybe hadn't been on my radar. I said, 1833, weren't we just at 1650 or 1750? We were. Every single day, right? We were. Look at this. Just two months ago, you were at 1492. Yeah. And let alone I... Six straight days ago, you were at 16. And that's where I... Just to grab it. My mind had kind of settled into... Even this was a staggering level, right? Yeah. Where we were up to 1749 on August 13th. So I knew we were above 17, which was a huge price, one alone. Right. And then, you know, you're creeping up, and even, what is this, the 23rd? So that's a week ago today. So that's Friday. So even Monday, we're sitting at 1749 again, right? And I saw, yes, it's... I missed that. We're at 1850, man. And it was so cool about this, folks. Watch this now. Now you're at the bottom of the high-volume bar. It's not a high-volume bar. We're actually coming into it with heavier volume of 2016. 1877. Oh, we're not quite there yet. 1877 is the low of 2016. That's right. My take is... See, gold had already taken that out. And now silver looks like it wants to take it out. Yeah. That's the highs of 2016. 1877. Yeah. Yeah. There's the low of it. And the high of it is 21, you know. It's going to say it's of July, right? It's a monthy. Yeah. So it's the low of July of 2016. Yeah. Just because it was dramatically lower at the beginning of 2016. Yeah. So, you know, bottom line is that you get game on there. Notes and bonds, these things just... They just don't want to... Yeah. They don't want to back off. Nope. And... I heard a commentary today talking about that the highest interest rate out there in the whole world is the Fed rate. Yeah. The overnight lending rate. How does that make sense, right? Yeah. Yeah. Because it is. That's pretty intense. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So we're sitting right now at... What is it? 175 to 2? No. It's 2 to 225. Right. That's the effective Fed rate, which is remarkable, man. And I lay... So we get the meeting coming up September 18th. 100% probability of a cut. Really where it gets interesting is when you get into, I think, the October and December. What are the odds here? Well, they're thinking two rate cuts by October. Almost a 60% chance. Yeah. So you get a 37% chance that we get three and then you add these two together. So you're looking at about above an 80... No, 85, 80... Well, geez, there's a 2% chance you get four rate cuts in three meetings. But there's about an 85% chance that you get two rate cuts by the end of the year. Yeah. Which would make sense when you're sitting at 2 to 225. And you know, folks, if you've been watching this for a while, see this Fed effective rate? Now, this is pretty cool because this is the rate that basically was done last night. Okay? So you see how this goes? It goes 2 to 2.25, right? So that's where the Fed can lend money. Okay? That's how the discount rate... That's the overnight lending, right? Yes. So what I've seen in the past... Okay, this is just... This is new. It's not new that how they have up there. But every time that they've had this, this rate always seemed to be closer to the top end of the rate versus it's in the middle now. Okay. Which is pretty cool. You know what I mean? Okay. Because that's the first time that I actually noticed it that, okay, that's come down also that they're lending overnight money well, in the middle now, where normally this would be like a 2.20, like when it was higher. Okay. So bottom line is that these rates are going lower. Yeah, I know. Seriously, right? Good. Well, listen, if you're... Ultra Salon, this is like a haircut extraordinaire. And if you have the... No, they're in makeup. They're not haircuts. I feel for you. Oh, man. I said, I started to say, I said, if you're in there, man, talk about tough morning, but you got to get a stop because you got to... I said, if you're in margin, you just lost over half your position. Right. Which is staggering to be down, you know, on a company that you don't think that's possible. Right. You don't. No. This is... And what we're talking about, folks, is that it closed last night at $349, and it's actually trading at $243. I think you're looking at it monthly. I think it closed at $337, but $337, I think, and we're at $242. You're about to be $100. Yeah. And it's not stopping. No. It keeps going. I told you, I had to pull out a calculator before the market opened because they don't give you the percentages when it's not open yet, right? Yeah. And I said, $87, close to $337. I got to check my map. That sounds like 25%. It was. Staying there, folks. Tommy and I are coming right back. Coming right back. Dow. Dow is a buck 10. Nasdaq up 10. 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Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 Internationally at 727-873-7618 Folks, you got the doubt right now up 100 and as that gets up 9 S&Ps are up 8 Just gave it up folks. So let's go take a look and see how far they got first. So this is so crazy when this happens. Almost 60 off the high. Yeah. And you got, you know, you got right to the downdraft, man. The top of this downdraft and all the indices, you know, happen to be the highs of August 13th as well as the 22nd. Yes. And that's where the downdraft is. And you know, so let's see. We got to 7770. That's a good number. And 7782. Yeah. And then, yeah, this is you're talking about 60 points. 77 points would be 1%. Man, that's a mammoth movement. It's only 10 to 19 in the morning. And watch, if you look at the spy, the spy got to 29423. I love it and got over all of them. And now it's underneath them. That's that's a good setup, man. It's we'll see if you get a failure by the end of the day, but that's kind of setting up cool. Let's go to our man Alan Tampa. What's going on, brother? Not much time. I just wanted to run something by you. My wife said to check it out with you. Well, I'm looking at doing I'm a disabled veteran and I'm looking at, you know, I was able to find a DA alone. Yeah. With no points or anything else for 3%. So you want to get it and and the nice thing about it is I'm going to look at buying the 375,000 dollar house. Yeah. And then what we would do is look at selling our other house. We should net about 250. And I was looking at your product for 7%. Yep. You know, those tax rebonds. Yeah. I was looking at taking that 250 and buying the tax rebonds from you. Well, they're not tax rebonds, but they pay the mortgage payment on the house. And then I'd still be since you're tax free, I wouldn't have to pay any interest on it. And since we're selling the house, you know, out of two out of five years, you're allowed to sell one tax free. Right. So we wouldn't have to pay capital gains. And then what we would be able to do since we're financing the whole thing above this 7%, I'd be able to still write off the interest on the house against my income. That's right. Now, let me just get something clear though. The first mortgage that I have and not tax free. What it is, is that the land is valuable because it's in these tax free opportunity zones. So that is the differential, right? So you would, at the end of the year, you do get a statement from us that you have to pay taxes on for all that interest. You have the interest income. Okay. You have interest income, right? Now, I thought it was, I thought there were tax free interest. No, what happens is that it's not. It's, if you keep the property, let's picture that the reason that it's valuable is that there's so many people coming into all these cities looking for this type of property. Because the way the program works is that you can build on the property, you can open businesses on the property, and if you keep the property for 10 years, you pay zero taxes. And then what also happens is that let's say that you had made $100,000 capital gain. You wouldn't pay the way the program works is that you'd put that into the property. You wouldn't pay the capital gains tax on that $100,000 today. You'd have to pay half of that capital gains tax 10 years from now. So it's a double bang-out, which is pretty wild, okay? So let's say it's just 15%. So you get the $100,000. You'd owe $15,000 this year. You wouldn't have to pay the $15,000 this year if you basically did an opportunity zone property. And then what ends up happening though, you cannot sell that for another 10 years. It's deferred income. That's the way to do it. It's deferred taxes. You defer that income. Right. And get rid of half of it, though. Right, right. And get rid of half of it. And then whatever you make on that 10 years, you pay no taxes, okay? So that's kind of, you know... And to bring it in, that's the developers doing that. Doesn't it bring in a monthly income? Oh, yeah, yeah. Can I just assist it out? Yeah. Because one is the developer. Right. And the other, Al, to separate... You're not the developer. You're not the owner. You're separate from that. But what makes it so attractive is the value of the property, which is what is securing that mortgage, which you have the first mortgage on. Right. So you're benefitting from the value of the mortgage, which you are the holder of, right? Right. You're the bank. You're the bank, right? So you have a first mortgage. You have the, you know, the right to that if there's any default. So in that sense, that's a valuable property because many investors look at the property, such as yourself, developers, so forth. Right. But it's that the... You being the bank does not tie in to you being the developer. Right. They're two separate things. You're just earning interest income. You'd be making 7,000 per 100,000 now. That's how it works. That's how it works. And it'd still be taxable. It is absolutely taxable. And as you said it, though, when you have a loan, you would then be able to deduct your interest you're paying from that income as you said, which is a huge benefit when you're a mortgage holder. Right. The interest income is deductible. You know, it's cool here in folks, okay? Al just brought something up. So if you're a veteran, what happens is this, is that he's at 3%. And then the VA loans, folks, what ends up happening is that they can't add in points and there's certain restrictions, okay, that the VA... And also PMI insurance. That's correct, okay? Yeah. Now listen to this. This is really important, folks. Okay, this is really cool. If you have a VA loan out here right now, right, look at what your interest is because this gets better because when normal folks... Not normal folks, but if you don't have a VA... Non-veterans. Yeah, non-veterans. If you're refinancing a loan, right, what happens is that they will add fees on and taxes on, right? I mean, in points on. They try to add all the fees they can, right? Exactly. Yeah. So watch what happens. If you get a VA loan and you have a life, right, you can call the... You can call your broker, you can call the bank, right? But guess what? They have a program, okay? And this takes two days. It's a joke. Meaning it's right. All they do, it's called a soft credit. They run... They hit a button and as long as... No appraisals or anything, you know. What ends up happening is that... Now, this is not a cash out loan. That's right, yeah. That's the key. You can't take cash out. But what happens is that you can go from 4.5 to 3.2 overnight. Just a very simple refinances. A way to put it, because they say, we're not giving you extra money. It's the same property. Right. We're going to reset you at the current rate and because it's a heavy, heavy regulated loan because the government's saying... Which is dynamite. No, we're not going to let these companies, you know, hit you with all these and jeez, I even as a finance major man going through mortgages, oh my god, you can't keep track because these banks do it purposely. You don't really know what they're hitting you with. The HUD statement's intense. Yeah. And thankfully, you know, we take care of the veterans, man. The banks can't hide any of that. Right. So that's why it becomes so easy. It's great. That's good news, Al. Yeah. I think that's a great plan, man. Oh my god. That's a great deal. Well, the nice thing about it is too is, if it closes in like 60 days, I've got these two link cuts possible too. And I get the lowest, whatever the lowest interest rate is. I know. You can reset to the lowest. Yes. At the day of the closes. That's huge, man. Huge. And congrats on the profit, man. Thank you. You got a good plan there. Yeah. 3%. Yeah. That's intense. Cooking, brother. No, we want to make sure that we put the money into something that when we sell the house tax-free, I want me to realize that my life doesn't want me to mess with stocks or something like that. I don't know. I don't blame it, man. I'm thinking maybe municipal bonds, tax-free, municipal bonds or something. As long as you know you can get your principal back. I was going to say, what municipality? That's the key because you got to make sure that there's a solid municipality and there's a lot of municipalities that aren't right now, so be careful. Have a great one, Al. Have a safe one. Happy Labor Day. Thanks, Al. Tommy and I are coming right back, folks. Stay right there. Hi, folks. Tom O'Brien here. If you'd like to get my daily newsletter and market insights, then now is a great time to sign up for a 30-day free trial. Every morning by 9.30, I send out my morning letter to subscribers with Market Commentary on a variety of markets, currencies and commodities to keep investors up-to-date on the day's trading action. Included in Market Insights are specific buy and sell recommendations for stocks, ETFs and even options, which stops and price targets included for every trade in my newsletter. If you'd like to try my newsletter at risk free for 30 days, then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find Market Insights under Trading Newsletters. I use my years of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information they need to know for the day ahead. I even issue afternoon updates for my subscribers whenever warranted with important market action. I'm always scouring the market for the next great trading opportunity. Sign up for your 30-day free trial to my daily newsletter Market Insights today by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Well, go get them, folks! The path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter and if you're looking for active trading ideas, then now is a perfect time for a 30-day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter. Using a combination of equity trades along with options, David keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted. Don't miss out on this great chance to get a 30-day free trial to David's daily newsletter the path of least resistance with no obligation to pay anything. 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The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns for weeks or even months searching to find. And right now, we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of the Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. Dow, Dow up 108. You get the Nasdaq up four, S&Ps up seven. Let's go over that oil market just for a second. We got something happening in oil here. This is, yeah. What's going on? We got a little negative action here. This is gave it up, man. Did we miss a tweet? No. Maybe. We must have missed something. Let's see what this is saying right here. So the headlines is beautiful. This is the eight o'clock headlines. Biggest weekly gain, folks. Well, guess what? It says heads for. Not quite yet. No, I agree. As I'm in Mr. Basil Chopin would say the day is young. That right is going to understand that. $55. Let's go to Derek and Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Derek, what's going on, brother? Hey, how are you guys doing today? Morning, Derek. Good. How's it going, gentlemen? Paul, I can neither confirm nor deny any presence at the meeting. Oh, that's perfect. I love it. We've got to get more calls today. Totally. That was perfect. That's fine. Great season. Totally. It's an interesting week up here to say the least when that happens every year. Yes. I bet it is right. I got a question on today's What does that do to a failure on price? Does that throw another thing to consider here? Yes, it would be considered. So my definition of failure on price and volume is like this, folks. So you always have markets go up and go down. In this particular case, because you can see quite clearly now that we've been in this consolidation since August 1st. The bottom of consolidation, I'm using the spy now. The bottom is 281 and the top is up here at, you know, 294 approximately. And you can see each time it's come up to that, which is basically ice, which is the downdraft. That's a white cough term. It's given it up. So a failure on price and volume goes like this. You get the failure on price, meaning that first off it has to get over the highs, which we did this morning. Then you have to close under them and you have to have lighter volume. Now, this is the cool thing and this is a great question, folks. So we know that you're going to have a failure on volume because the volumes are so high at these highs. But this is what I like to see. This would be a more bearish scenario, is that if we get an actually contraction even from yesterday. So watch this. We start on this. Monday, the spy had volume of 72 million. You will go on higher. Tuesday, 68. Wednesday, 59. Yesterday, 57. Is there a trend there? And then this is what happens. If you get a contraction of that, that's even more bearish because it's showing that the volume characters to get normally used is the swing point. But that volume is a monster. It's not going to happen. So if you get that contraction, then you get a higher probability that you have a true contraction of true failure on price and volume. And that's a decent chance you do, man, because Friday before Labor Day, everyone's asking for the Hamptons to Cape Cod to wherever, Jackson Hole Man for sure. And I tell people all the time, if you're a bull, you really want to see this market pull back today and not go after the highs. If you're a bear, this is what you want to see. You want to see it get up into that level. You want to see big volume contraction and then the bottom of failure on price because that would be saying underlying this, that we actually do have more sellers than buyers. So it's going to be intriguing is our man, Mr. Dave White, he just brought up to the point that we are in window dressing. Okay, so that's a heads up. There's no doubt about that. Fun buying so forth. Yes. At the end of the month, the beginning of the month, and we will have fun buying on Tuesday and Wednesday. It's the end of the summer. It's pretty interesting. Labor Day is over. We're Boston. I'm not sure if you're familiar, Derek, but Boston, New York, probably similar, right? It's like, that's the end of the summer. And that's why Friday, beforehand, take advantage of those three days, right? Get down Cape Cod. You come back. The kids are back in school. September 2nd, summer's over, man. Rental houses go through August. You're back in the city. You're back at your trading desk. Yeah, our summer ended, I think, last week, all the kids are back in school here. Yeah, it's the same gift. Florida, they go back almost two weeks ago, which is mind blowing. But usually up there, you make it past Labor Day on most years. And I feel like, you know, it's interesting. I always feel like Labor Day is almost like a new year, like the beginning of, and that just happened like years ago that... I think it has to do with us being down Cape Cod because whether you have rental houses, whether you're just down there in your house, that's everybody else has rent. You know, the summer's there, activities, kids are in classes through August. You go through Labor Day, and school usually starts whether it's the Wednesday, Thursday, right after Labor Day. Yeah. So, hey, how long have you lived in Jackson Hole? See, it'll be removed here September of 08. That's sweet, man. I've seen pictures of it. I heard it's beautiful, right? Well, I'll tell you what, we have off season until just about the week after Thanksgiving. You guys fly out here. I'll take you to dinner. Oof. We got to get on it. That'll be possible. Okay. Yeah. Keep calling into the program. We're going to make some plans. The sea waves. Oh, I've seen pictures too. Well, I watch it every day. I never miss the bull bear trading hour. I never miss the end of the day with Tom. So, even if I somehow miss a minute or two, I always watch it at night. So, you mention you're coming out, and I'll get a hold of you. We'll do it. It's on. Awesome, man. I look forward to it, man. That is so cool. Listen, you have a great one. It's a safe one, Derek. Thanks so much, man. Bye-bye. That place is gorgeous. I'm excited, man. I'm excited. No, that's because, I mean, it is gorgeous, man. I've never been there, but we've all seen the pictures. That's why they have that big symposium out there, man. They don't put it in the middle of nowhere. They put it in a beautiful spot. And you know, it's wild, folks, is that I remember it's like about 25 years ago, maybe 30 years ago, that they had enough money out there that they convinced American Airlines to fly in directly. And that changed everything. Sure. You get to that port, you know, like easy travel, direct routes. We all know you want to fly direct for sure. So let's go, let's, hey, let's go over to Alton and see what happened. Do we really, are we ready for this? Yeah. And then we're going to work day next. Okay. So let's see. Well, here, let's bring this down and see what they said. You're going to have a lot of articles to get through on this one this morning. There we go. Okay. So here's the numbers. So earnings per share, is that a year? Oh, they expected 246 and they got 276. Yeah. I was going to jump fiscal year, right? 1186 to 12, they were looking for almost 13 before that. So talk about a huge revision. Fiscal year comp sales, they're now looking for four to six. They were looking for six to seven. Still remarkable when you're talking about, we might grow comp sales for the year at 6%. And they're like, market says, oh my God, we're going to slash your market cap by 25% overnight. Right. Staggering, man. Yeah. They expect to open 80 new stores. 80 stores. And their stores are so big. That's fiscal year. They are huge, man. And let's scroll back up now that we're there just to give, let's see what they kind of highlight here. So comp sales, key metric grew at 6.2% in the quarter. Below the analyst estimate, though, and they now expect, like we said, four to six as opposed to the six to the seven. Key insights in here. While sales continue to rise, the rate slower than the rapid pace past years and companies still opening stores, locations climbing to 1,213 in the quarter. That's, I mean, because they are the mammoth. They're not kiosks, man, right? Yeah. They are just mammoth makeup stores. I don't think I've ever personally bought something in there, but we're all familiar with them if you've been in them all. And it's that Kylie Jenner. So later on in the year, they're going to introduce a skin line from her. Okay. Because that first line was very successful for them. Yeah. They have the makeup brand, right? Yeah. Or whether it's eye shadow, wood eye, I'm sure she has a few different products. But man, oh man. And it was up 38% this year, but... And down 25 in a day. But guess what? That 25 is now on the higher number. You can be up 30%. I mean, this is how the triples work, right? Oh, yeah. You're up 38%. But then you go down 25% from that higher number. You might be below where you actually started from. I know. Yeah. Dow. Dow right now up 104. Now it's like up 11. S&P's up 7.5. Come right back. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you. 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The Dow is up by $97,000. That's a five. S&Ps are up six. Let's go to our man, Lou, in Spokane, Washington. What's going on, brother? Hey, Tom and Tommy. Morning, Lou. You ready for a good weekend? I've been watching that hurricane you guys are going to get and praying for you. And thank you. We appreciate it. Glad I'm about 2,500 miles away. We're getting a little West Coast flavor in the show this morning. Yeah, I like it. I know, I know. Yeah, we don't get hurricanes out here. No, thank God. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, we'll be all right. Everybody just stay safe. That's you got to take them seriously. And that's the real crux. Well, we do take them seriously. Yes, you bet, man. That's right. Wait, Tommy and I have been enough of them. Cool, man. Yeah, yeah. And what we were, we're in a monster one hurricane Bob. We're at the Cape. What are you? Yeah, that's that was it. 93, 92. That was a beauty. Yeah, it wiped out everything, man. We were that end of the summer. I remember as a kid, it ended it because I think it had middle August, early August. And of course that was the end of the summer because everybody was just destruction there. So I was up in DC in the 70s. And we had a hurricane came up there and was pretty much blown up. But what we got was heavy rain for three days. And it was raining so hard. You couldn't go out to your car, which was about a five second run from the door, right? You were totally soaked, five seconds. And it rained like that. That's where the world of pelting comes from. Yeah, right. Yeah, that's the one for three days. Yeah, you have pelting and that rain hurts. That can be worse than a storm because that flooding really can't. Right, right. Well, you know, that's what it looks like they're setting up for Florida to me. Yeah, no it is. We're just hoping it's a little further north than where we are, but there's no doubt. It's still too early. It is. And of course, you know, we get out. We get out. Sometimes you never know. I'm going to be hustling all day long today making sure to batten down those hatches, baby. Oh my God. Batten them down. Yeah. Oh yeah. So what are you going to look at? Get you a rubber raft, huh? Yeah, right. Get you a rubber raft, all right. Totally. We'll end up in the freaking behind us. Get a rubber arm. You were talking yesterday about the bond market and how it was a big consternation. I've been looking at this thing for a couple years and I don't think I got it totally figured out, but I think I know what the big problem here is. Okay. Well, as you know, the bond market's one of the biggest markets in the world. Yes, truly. It's close to a quadrillion dollars, a thousand trillion dollars. Right. And it's known as the smart money because that's where the really big guys park their money. Sure. I mean, we're talking about guys that are, you know, Rockefellers, Rothschild. Absolutely. Because you hope you're going to get it back. People type people. Right. They got about half the money in the world as close as I can figure it and they got a lot of it in the bond market. Yeah. So the problem we got right now is they got these negative interest rates going and they can't let go of them. You know, there's so much debt in the world, there's about, they claim there's about 250 trillion on the books. But I think there's at least another equal amount off the books. So you're talking about a half quadrillion dollars in debt. If you just tried paying two or three percent interest on that, you couldn't do it. That's correct. See, that's so big it can't be carried at any reasonable interest. So they've got to keep driving the interest rates down or the whole thing blows up. Yeah, listen, that's a good point. You know, it's fundamentally, the bottom line is that, so what Lou's talking about here folks is this, when you do the numbers, fundamentally, if there's any interest at all on the debt, it never can be paid back. That's a factual deal. And that's why you know, thank God that people can go bankrupt, okay? I lost you a little bit there saying if there's any interest, it can't be paid back. So on a longer term basis, because that's why printing money in the fiat system in general, okay? Once you take the amount of debt that's out there, and then you take the interest on the debt, right? No matter which way you calculate it, it all never can be paid back, ever. That's just, it's mathematical impossibility, okay? Because the interest is piling up. So that's why you see wipeouts on a continual basis, you know? And, you know, we'll see, what I still am having a hard time, I totally understand the aspect that Tommy's a big fund, you know, you get the Rockefellers, you got, well you have countries. I mean, just put you this, you get China and Japan are our biggest debtors, right? They themselves, they have to put their money somewhere, okay? And they feel it's safe in the U.S. Treasury. And it is safe in the U.S. Treasury. So when you have this much cash chasing just safety, and I would say that safety, they just want to make sure they get it back. You know, if you have billions of dollars, who are you going to give it to? You give it to a bank that might go to the south, you give it, that's, so, you know, I don't know where this thing's going to end. What we'll see, Tom, here's the problem. You got the richest, most powerful people in the world that own the bond market, basically. That's their money. Almost all of it is their money, right? Now they are somehow going to figure out a way to come out of this hole or better than hole. They always do. I mean, I'm 80 years old, I've seen it all my life. And at the time it seems like they can't figure out a way. But Tom, they always figure out a way. So the question is, if all these guys got their money in, if the interest rates keep going down and go negative, like you say, they can't go too negative the way I figure it. Because these guys would be losing too much money, right? They could go one, two, three percent negative. These guys wouldn't care, you know? But the debt has to be inflated away, right? Yeah, so would that be inflated or deflated away? I guess that would be deflated away. If the debt was inflated away at some point, these interest rates have to explode and go to the upside, which is going to, you know, it's going to wipe out a lot of people. Now what happens if I just, as my mind goes around, and I have nothing figured out in this one, man, I can go in circles, right, in terms of the chicken or the egg or those what, but what about the capital side of things, right? In terms of if the rates really do go down and they have all their money really in there, then you have, I mean, just like this month alone, you look at the TLT, man, if you're in bonds, the capital appreciation, if you're in bonds is staggering. It is, it is. I mean, you just went from 130 to 150. They're riding it down, you know, they're making money on the way down as these bonds go up. Right, they are. Yeah, and that's... And somehow at the bottom, how the hell do they get out? I mean, they got to go into something like, you know, the metals or... That's a great point, that's what my head went. That's why you're seeing... The other thing is, some people are floating a theory that they're going to take that money and buy all the goddamn real estate in the world, which they could do, which they could do because it's way bigger than all the value of the real estate. So what's... They could come out owning everything, we own nothing. Well, you just said they'll loo, right? That's my take. And the reason being is this, if you go to Europe, what happens, you know, you get the queen, you get the prince, owns all of downtown London. 99 year leases, okay? They don't sell it to you, they sell you a 99 year lease. My take is that that's where everything is eventually going to be. And you're kind of seeing it, you're seeing it, you're seeing it. No, that's, that might... That's a great point. I think you're absolutely right, man, because that's the only thing that's going to be left at is tangible. At least you know, at the end of the day. And how many years ago did you go, there's only so much land? Well, really, now you know what folks, there really is so much land. Especially when we're talking about the U.S. In cities and yet. Totally. Totally. Lou, man, thanks so much. Have a great weekend, safe weekend, Lou. Happy Labor Day. Okay, you guys too. Thanks, man. Stay right there, tell me when I come right back. The best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastering Probability. And for the last 12 months, Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals, which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, 6, and 3 months. Timer Digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well. The fact is, markets can be timed. And I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do. Sign up for Mastering Probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of TFNN.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls too. Sign up today. It's amazing to think that Tom O'Brien started his weekly gold report 17 years ago with the first issue published April 7th, 2002 when gold was trading at under $300 per ounce. Gold peaked at more than $1,900 in 2011 and after spending many years consolidating at lower prices, gold may be poised for its next big run. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, The Dollar, Bonds, South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. As of April 1st of this year, the gold report currently has 8 active positions with an average unrealized profit of almost 8% for each open trade. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your gold report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. Don't let gold's next big run pass you by. Sign up today. Since 1984, Basil Chapman has been using the Chapman Wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion. While originally hand-drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s, Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply. Later, Basil found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy in calling price turns as well as market trend calls. Thus was born the Chapman Wave sequence. Using the Chapman Wave methodology along with other indicators, Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter. Right now, you can get a two-week free trial to the opening call, Basil's Daily Trading Newsletter, by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing. Get your two-week free trial to Basil's newsletter, the opening call today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Folks, and if you do happen to be in Florida, these, you can see orange juices, this just jumped a bit from, what, 92 to, what's that, 104? All right, the high today, 106.90. I heard something on Bloomberg today talking about that there were that 60% of the crop could have problems. We're gonna get Larry Pesvento back on the air, man. We need to buy, buy, buy. What are the orange juice futures? What are they saying? It's Mr. Beeks. What's the report saying? God, it's the first time. My first trade, folks, in the futures market, was orange juice, and I lost $3,000 in like 10 seconds. And then the guy comes back to me. This is 1981, and he comes back. It was one of the guys that I had, he was working for me, buying coupons, and then he was a broker, though. Still, come on, Tom, you're gonna buy orange juice futures. So I bought them, right? And I'm in the office, the downtown boss, and I give them the money, and they turn around, and he says, oh, you need more money. You just lost the $3,000. I looked and I said, what? I can't, give me my, I said, I'm getting out of here. This is like- That's not how it works. He's gone, sir. Yeah, it was gone, man. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, my God. Yeah. So it's, this is serious business stuff for the farmers. So they got huge, you know, rain, of course, 130-mile-an-hour winds, labor day, of course. So two years ago, so- Irma, yeah. That the storm helped drop a number of orange produced by the state to its lowest level since 45 billions. On its current path, Dorian may batter at least a quarter of Florida's main growing areas. Yeah. So you got, you know, orange juice futures trading places. That's one thing they taught me. Orange juice futures, man. I love that movie. It took about, how many words did it take when they came out with the crop report, right? And they said, uh, will not affect or will affect whatever it was, and they knew instantly. Oh, we got the wrong crop report. We got worked. You got to love it. Totally. Stay right there, folks. You got Fast Magnet coming up for you. Then we get our man, Mr. Basil Chapman, Steve Rhodes, Dave White. I'll be back this afternoon. Have a great labor day weekend. A safe one. Thanks, pal. Thanks, man. Real, look at him, folks.